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Equibase Analysis: Regular Guy With Fancy Pedigree Ready To Excel

A field of 11 is entered to run in the Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes, the stepping stone to the Risen Star Stakes and to the Louisiana Derby, all run at Fair Grounds on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby.” As is usually the case for newly turned 3-year-olds in early Kentucky Derby prep races, few have run in stakes at this point in their careers. Of those with stakes credentials, Midnight Bourbon might be most notable as he finished second in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes last September then third in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes in October. Game Day Play won the Clever Trevor Stakes in October and is trying two turns for the first time. Red N Wild missed by a head in the Clever Trevor then two races later was third, beaten nine lengths, in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes.

Arabian Prince is another who has made a mark in stakes races, albeit a small one, when finishing third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the end of November. Lastly among those with stakes experience, Dyn O Mite finished fifth in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes and Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity last summer as a maiden. He has won two races in a row since then.

Among the horses which are stepping into the stakes ranks for the first time are Beep Beep, Manor House, Regular Guy and Santa Cruiser, who exit maiden races all won in visually impressive fashion. Mandaloun and Proxy earned wins in their most recent starts in first level allowance races.

I'm going to start my list of horses I think can win the Lecomte Stakes with Regular Guy. This colt didn't run well at all in his first two starts, both sprints and both last summer, finishing ninth then sixth. Given two months off to mature and stretching out to a mile, Regular Guy finished second behind Santa Cruiser (who is also entered here) and earned a stellar 96 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the second best figure earned by any horse in this field. Making his first start at Fair Grounds and first start around two-turns four weeks ago, Regular Guy didn't run as fast but he won fairly easily in a field of nine.

Besides logical improvement in his second two-turn race and second at the meeting, Regular Guy also put in a very strong five furlong workout in 100.4 which was the third best of 37 on the day and that total likely included a number of older and more seasoned horses. Even better, Regular Guy has the breeding to be something special as a STATS Race Lens pedigree query yields his dam (the Unbridled's Song mare Rebridled Dreams) has produced two exceptional 3-year-olds in her short breeding career. One was Farrell, who earned over $1 million and won the 2017 Fair Grounds Oaks, and the other was Carpe Diem, winner of $1.5 million including the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes in 2014. As such, I expect Regular Guy to take a big step forward just as his siblings did during their 3-year-old campaigns and post the upset win in this year's Lecomte Stakes.

Santa Cruiser hasn't been seen since winning at a mile in November and beating Regular Guy by a length and one-half. That effort earned a 98 Equibase figure, which is the best earned by any horse in the field. I don't think the time off is of any concern particularly as Santa Cruiser has put in three straight workouts at Fair Grounds in preparation for this race. Trainer Keith Desormeaux (who also saddles Dyn O Mite) has had his share of success on the “Road to the Derby,” sometimes at high odds (Sonneteer at 99/1 in the 2017 Rebel Stakes). Therefore if Desormeaux thinks Santa Cruiser is ready for this level of competition, as well as if I think Regular Guy is a contender – as he was beaten by Santa Cruiser the only time they met, then improved to win – I must give Santa Cruiser a strong look as a contender in this race.

Mandaloun is two-for-two in his career to date, winning with a nice rally from ninth in his debut in October then improving to win a first level allowance race at seven furlongs in late November. Improving to a 94 figure with that win, the third best figure in the field, Mandaloun is on a pattern for even better in the Lecomte, provided he runs as well in his first route. That shouldn't be an issue as a son of Into Mischief, who has produced some top 3-year-olds in recent years including Authentic, Audible and Owendale. Trainer Brad Cox is already off to a sparkling start at the Fair Grounds meeting, winning 24% (13 of 55) races through last weekend, and jockey Florent Geroux rides Mandaloun again after being aboard for his first two wins.

Midnight Bourbon, like Santa Cruiser, has “Road to the Derby” breeding to go along with stakes quality form. His dam, the Malibu Moon mare Catch the Moon, produced 2015 Iroquois Stakes winner Cocked and Loaded as well as one of the top 3-year-olds in 2017, Girvin, who won the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby leading to $1.6 million in career earnings. Midnight Bourbon finished second in last year's Iroquois Stakes after making the lead and opening up with an eighth of a mile to go, earning a 91 figure which, if improved upon, is definitely competitive with the main contenders. Getting the ground saving rail and moving to trainer Asmussen's number one jockey in Ricardo Santana Jr. for the first time, Midnight Bourbon absolutely rounds out a strong quartet of win contenders in the Lecomte Stakes.

The rest of the Lecomte Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures: Arabian Prince (87), Beep Beep (91), Dyn O Mite (84), Game Day Play (80), Manor House (87), Proxy (85) and Red N Wild (91).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Regular Guy
Santa Cruiser
Mandaloun
Midnight Bourbon

$200,000 Lecomte Stakes – Grade 3
Fair Grounds
Saturday, January 16, 2021 – 13th Race. Post Time 6:49 PM E.T.
Three Year Olds

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Louisiana Derby Winner Wells Bayou Makes Long-Awaited Return At Fair Grounds

It's been a long road back but Clint and Lance Gasaway, Madaket Stables, and Wonder Stables' Wells Bayou, who won last year's Louisiana Derby (G2), makes his much-anticipated return in Saturday's $125,000 Louisiana Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots IN New Orleans, La. The 1 1/16-mile race is a key supporting feature on the six-stakes Road to the Derby card and could prove the pivotal comeback race in a 2021 handicap division lacking any true standouts.

Carded as race 10, the Louisiana is the second leg of the $100,000 guaranteed “All Stakes Pick Five” and the first leg of the $150,000 guaranteed “All Stakes Pick Four”. Both sequences conclude with the Lecomte Stakes (G3), which is carded as the finale on a 13-race extravaganza.

Wells Bayou, who drew post 8-of-9, was installed by Mike Diliberto as the lukewarm 3-1 morning line favorite with regular rider Florent Geroux in tow. The 4-year-old son of Lookin At Lucky stamped himself as a legitimate Kentucky Derby (G1) contender for trainer Brad Cox when he won the local Derby in gate-to-wire fashion last March. Things didn't go accordingly to plan from there, however, as Wells Bayou was a distant fifth after dueling on the lead in the May 2 Arkansas Derby (G1) and hasn't been seen since.

“We worked him a time or two after the Arkansas Derby and we weren't happy with the works,” Cox said. “We sent him off for a bone scan. There was nothing major going on, just a little bone remodeling and young horse stuff, you know, some wear and tear. He just needed some time off and he got that.”

Should he rediscover his form, Wells Bayou, who is 3-for-6 lifetime, would be a major addition to a handicap division there for the taking at the start of 2021. The Louisiana is clearly just a start to what Cox hopes is a serious campaign, which is why he may not be at his absolute best Saturday.

“He's been a little slow to get back on track,” Cox said. “He was very heavy when he came in. His last few works at Oaklawn have been really sharp. The race (Louisiana) was there so we would enter and take a good look at it and it looks like a really good comeback spot for him.”

Calumet Farm's homebred Blackberry Wine (post 4 at 9-2 with Adam Beschizza), was an easy 5 ½-length winner of a local December 13 optional-claimer for trainer Joe Sharp. The 4-year-old son of Oxbow has long been held in high regard by his connections in a Jekyll and Hyde career that has seen some big wins and disappointing efforts as well. Blackberry Wine is 2-for-11 lifetime, which includes a distant seventh in the Risen Star here last February, but Sharp believes the arrow is pointing up leading into the Louisiana after such a dominant win.

“We felt really good coming into the Fair Grounds race last time,” Sharp said. “That was the old Blackberry Wine and numbers-wise, it was even better than the old Blackberry Wine. The timing is good. He's had a few good works since then. It doesn't look like there is a lot of speed in the race, which plays into our hand. He doesn't have to be on the lead, but he likes to be close early, that's for sure.”

Charles Fipke's homebred Title Ready (post 6 at 6-1 with Brian Hernandez Jr.) has been knocking heads with some of the best horses in the country the past few years for trainer Dallas Stewart. He enters Saturday's assignment off a seventh in the Breeders' Cup Classic November 7 at Keeneland in November and a 10^th in the Clark at Churchill Downs 20 days later. The 6-year-old son of More Than Ready is 4-for-24 lifetime and has hit the board in seven stakes, including a third in the Fayette (G2) at Keeneland in October. There's little doubt Title Ready gets a decided drop in class in the Louisiana, which could result in a long-awaited initial stakes win.

“I think the company will be a little lighter for him and he tries hard every time he runs,” Stewart said. “That's the type of horse you want to be around.”

Courtlandt Farms' Sonneman (post 9 at 4-1 with James Graham) was a closing second to heavyweight Maxfield in the local December 19 Tenacious for trainer Steve Asmussen. The 4-year-old son of Curlin was making his first start against older horses and was much farther back than usual, yet he rallied nicely for the place spot and was well clear of third. Sonneman was second in Churchill's Pat Day Mile (G2) in September and is another who could be a big player in the older horse division this year.

Completing the Louisiana field from the rail out: trainer Gerard Perron's Grand Luwegee (20-1 with Colby Hernandez), who shocked the local December 12 Louisiana Classic over state breds; Lothenbach Stables' Captivating Moon (post 2 at 6-1 with Shaun Bridgmohan), fifth in the Tenacious for trainer Chris Block and also cross-entered in the Colonel E.R. Bradley in R11; Ed and Susie Orr's Silver Prospector (post 3 at 5-1 with Ricardo Santana Jr.), who drops in class after running sixth in Churchill's November 27 Clark (G1) for Asmussen;; Lea Farms' Indimaaj (post 5 at 12-1 with Joe Talamo), who enters off two straight dominant optional-claiming wins at Tampa Bay Downs for trainer Jeff Engler; and Don't Tell MY Wife Stables, Monomoy Stables, and West Point Thoroughbreds' My Boy Jack (post 7 at 12-1 with Gabriel Saez), a multiple graded stakes winning 3-year-old in 2018 who goes second-off a 13-month layoff and is also entered in the Bradley for trainer Keith Desormeaux.

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America’s Day at the Race Returns Saturday

America’s Day at the Races returns Saturday in what will be the first of 22 days of the telecast to air throughout January, February and March on FOX Sports. It will air on FS1 from 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. and will feature live racing from Fair Grounds, including the GIII Lecomte S. and Silverbulletday S.

Presented in 2021 by America’s Best Racing and Claiborne Farm, the telecasts will feature live racing from the Aqueduct winter meet as well as partner tracks, including Fair Grounds Race Course, Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Downs and others. NYRA will announce the complete spring schedule for America’s Day at the Races later in 2021.

The post America’s Day at the Race Returns Saturday appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Jockey Gilligan Breaks Collarbone In Gate Incident, Expects To Be Out Five Weeks

Jockey Jack Gilligan, who had been enjoying early success at the current Fair Grounds meet, said he expects to be out four to five weeks after he broke his left collarbone in a gate accident in the last race on Jan. 10.

Gilligan was aboard Tripper John, a 4-year-old maiden gelding he had ridden before. He knew the horse had previously had issues with the gate but in their last start together they experienced no issues. After loading on Sunday, Gilligan said the horse went up with no warning, tossing him out the back of the gate. He remembers turning in midair and came down primarily on his left shoulder, breaking that collarbone in the same place he had broken it previously.

“It took me like four weeks to get back on horses and five weeks to get back racing [last time] so I'm hopeful for the same timeline,” he said. “It was a bit unlucky. If I'd fallen any other way I'd probably be all right. My collarbone, the way it healed was a little crooked, so that's probably why it was easier to break this time.”

Gilligan also said Wednesday that he would be getting evaluated to see if he had a concussion, as he also suffered some head trauma in the fall.

Tripper John was scratched after the incident, but Gilligan said he believed the horse was unharmed.

One of few advantages to breaking the same bone a second time is Gilligan said he's not in as much pain as he remembers from the first injury as long as he keeps his arm still. He expects the next few weeks to be quiet ones as he waits out the healing process, with a few days to grab some extra sleep and downtime before he must begin getting back to training.

So far this year, Gilligan has two wins, three seconds and eight thirds from 35 starts. To date, the British native has ridden 356 American winners since becoming licensed in the United States in 2014 and has piloted earners of more than $8.7 million.

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