Essential Quality | Horse Racing Free Tips

TDN Derby Top 12 for Dec. 30

We’re now inside the 125-day mark until the first Saturday in May. The debut 2021 GI Kentucky Derby rankings are compiled largely with an eye toward sophomore prowess rather than lauding horses for accomplishments at age two. Interestingly, five homebreds have secured spots within the initial Top 12, a departure from previous seasons when there were only one or two.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit—Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)

O/B-Godolphin (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144.

Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Kee, Nov. 6

Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, ‘TDN Rising Star’

Next Start: Uncommitted

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 30.

‘TDN Rising Star’ and presumptive divisional champ Essential Quality is the Top 12 kingpin on the cusp of his sophomore season. That also means this assertive gray will have a figurative target on his back as he attempts to buck the daunting, decades-long stat (2-for-36) that argues against the likelihood of the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner going on to win the Derby. This high-energy Tapit homebred for Godolphin earned top billing by orchestrating an authoritative, undefeated three-act performance over the span of just two months in 2020, and the scary-good thing is that Essential Quality hardly seemed to be running all out or scraping stamina bottom in any of those races. He broke his maiden sprinting over the Churchill surface, then won back-to-back Grade I routes over Keeneland’s short-stretch 1 1/16 miles configuration. His GI Breeders’ Futurity S. win was notable for the confident, pace-pressing ability this colt displayed before drawing off at will, and his late-closing Juvenile score earned the top two-turn Beyer Speed Figure (95) by any 2-year-old this year in a two-turn race. Essential Quality is wintering in New Orleans, with two December breezes so far at Fair Grounds and no prep races publicly disclosed.

2) LIKEABLE (c, Frosted–Dashing Debby, by Medaglia d’Oro)

O-Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable & Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $350,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-1-0, $49,050.

Last Start: 13th GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Kee, Nov. 6

Accomplishments: Mdn win, Belmont, Sept. 19

Next Start: Uncommitted

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Likeable ran 13th in the Juvenile and has only a maiden win to his credit, so yes, it does seem a little outlandish to have him ranked this highly to start the season. But I’ve been intrigued by this $350,000 KEESEP Frosted colt since his unveiling at Saratoga, and see no reason to bury him deeper down the list because a more polished version of Likeable has the potential to explosively improve at age three. His Aug. 22 off-turf, seven-furlong debut caught the eye because Likeable was widest on the turn, moved (prematurely) to engage the leaders, got banged around in the stretch, yet still didn’t pack it in while fighting to the finish against a well-meant winner. He stretched to a one-turn mile at Belmont Sept. 15, flashing sharp speed under restraint while pulling in spots before swatting away a 4-5 fave on the turn and cantering home by 8 1/2 lengths. Trainer Todd Pletcher then gambled on throwing Likeable into the Breeders’ Cup, and he ran like a youngster not quite ready for prime time, dragging the rider four wide through the turn to engage a 41-1 kamikaze pacemaker through the fastest opening quarter in the Juvenile since 2014 and that race’s fastest half-mile split since 2003. After a bit of time off, Likeable has resumed breezing at Palm Beach Downs in Florida, where his strong early turn of foot should be a great match for Gulfstream’s speed-conducive surface.

3) PRIME FACTOR (c, Quality Road–Haylie Brae, by Bernardini)

O-CHC Inc. & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Two Hearts Farm LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $900,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $24,000.

Last Start: Mdn win, Gulfstream, Dec. 12

Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

There is no need to search for better-than-it looks nuance in the emphatic, blast-off debut of Prime Factor, a $900,000 KEESEP colt who was the co-second priciest of 63 Quality Road yearlings to sell in 2019. This Pletcher trainee pressed the lone speed and took control at will in a Gulfstream MSW sprint Dec. 12, earning ‘TDN Rising Star’ status by widening under wraps to win by 8 3/4 lengths in a 1:10.38 clocking (85 Beyer) that went .08 seconds faster than the only other six-furlong race on the card, the GIII Sugar Swirl S. for older female sprinters. “We were looking forward to a good debut. Honestly, he exceeded expectations,” Pletcher said post-race. Michael Wallace, the CEO of co-owner China Horse Club, added that the colt was “in the top three of our yearling selections and has impressed all throughout the year. We will discuss the next step for him with our partners, WinStar Farm, but he is undoubtedly an exciting prospect for 2021.”

4) JACKIE’S WARRIOR (c, Maclean’s Music—Unicorn Girl, by A. P. Five Hundred)

O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (Ky). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $95,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.

Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Kee, Nov. 6

Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 12. 4) Jackie’s Warrior

From June through October, Jackie’s Warrior ran the table with four consecutive open-length wins that resonated as man-against-boys throttlings in which he controlled legit splits and often turned for home in hand while overmatched rivals were under full-out drives. Then came the Breeders’ Cup, in which this Maclean’s Music colt went off favored in the Juvenile and enjoyed a no-excuse stalking trip with an overly ambitious speed duel in front of him. “Jackie” got first run at those caving pacemakers, but was tag-teamed turning for home, first by the longest shot on the board before Essential Quality powered past to win. This $95,000 KEESEP colt ended up fourth, beaten only 3 1/4 lengths, so it was not the type of loss that will tarnish his overall body of work. But a defeat in his only two-turn attempt means distance questions will linger into 2021 until Jackie otherwise proves route races are within his wheelhouse. His 100 Beyer from winning the one-turn mile GI Champagne S. still clocks in as the only triple-digit Beyer earned by a juvenile in 2020.

5) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)

O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $67,700.

Last Start: 1st, Alw, FG, Dec. 19

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Proxy won a Dec. 19 NW2L allowance over 1 1/16 miles at the Fair Grounds that impressed more from a “how he did it” perspective rather than “how fast” (76 Beyer). Backed to 7-10 favoritism in a four-horse race, this Godolphin homebred brushed the gate, assumed command into the turn and onto the backstretch, then conceded the lead between calls. He reclaimed the top spot at the entrance to the final bend, then braced for a two-pronged attack from the closers. Proxy drifted out three times in upper- and mid-stretch under left-handed stick work, and one of his outward sways intimidated a rival while emboldening Proxy. Asked for another gear, this colt dug in stoutly, opening up to win by 2 1/4 lengths. Proxy raced on Lasix for both of his Fair Grounds wins after running second, beaten a neck, without it in his Monmouth Park debut. In this transition year for Lasix, he is the only horse within the Top 12 to have raced on it, and if he is to advance as a top-tier Derby candidate, he’ll have to forego that medication moving forward. This year’s Derby (and its major points-earning preps) are all being conducted Lasix-free.

6) SPEAKER’S CORNER (c, Street Sense–Tyburn Brook, by Bernardini)

O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-William Mott. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $43,290.

Last Start: 1st Mdn, Belmont, Oct. 11

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Speaker’s Corner is the third Godolphin homebred (for three different trainers) to crack the inaugural Top 12 list. This one’s a Street Sense bay out of a Bernardini mare conditioned by Bill Mott. Even though Mott’s firsters generally need a race or two before rounding into best efforts, this colt got pounded to odds-on favoritism for his Saratoga debut Sept. 7. A slow start and moderate rally left a slightly green Speaker’s Corner third, 6 3/4 lengths behind the winner that day, but start number two reconciled the advance hype. In a deep-on-paper Oct. 11 MSW over seven furlongs at Belmont, he got bumped at the break then rallied into swift splits (:22.04, :44.64), reeling in next-out winner–and subsequent ‘TDN Rising Star’–Caddo River (Hard Spun) with an impressive, grind-down stretch rally, earning Speaker’s Corner an 80 Beyer. In addition, the third-place finisher in that race came back to run second as the fave in a nine-furlong MSW, and the eighth-place finisher subsequently wired a MSW grass route.

7) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)

O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $525,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $34,200.

Last Start: 1st Mdn, Nov. 22, Del Mar

Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’

Next Start: Possible for GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

The gaudy, 91 Beyer debut romp by ‘TDN Rising Star’ Life Is Good ($525,000 KEESEP) was so impressive in the eyes of the betting public that this Into Mischief bay closed at 5-1 odds in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager one week later, making him the top choice among the 22 individual betting interests beyond the “field” at 6-5. His scintillating 9 1/2-length scorcher at Del Mar was hallmarked by natural breakaway speed under a sitting-chilly ride by Mike Smith, and the runner-up just came back to win a MSW by 3 1/4 lengths on opening day at Santa Anita. After bulleting six furlongs in 1:10.60 (1/6) Sunday at Santa Anita, trainer Bob Baffert said, “We’re still debating whether Life Is Good will go in the [one-mile GIII] Sham S. or the seven-eighths [Grade II] San Vicente [S. Feb. 7].”

8) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward)

O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (Ky). T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 wnlg ’18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $124,050.

Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., Kee, Nov. 6

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

During the two-day Breeders’ Cup meet at Keeneland, six dirt-track records were established and speed-centric horses accounted for 10 of 14 dirt winners. This $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt was one of them, and it’s logical to question whether Highly Motivated’s stalking 6 1/2-furlong Nyquist S. score was primarily the product of a quick track that played to his liking. But those thoughts are starting to be offset by how decently that undercard stakes is shaping up as a key race. It has now yielded three next-out wins from the second-, third-, and fifth-place horses, and they were all favorites (in the Sugar Bowl S. at Fair Grounds, a Churchill open allowance, and a Louisiana-bred stakes at Fair Grounds, respectively). In the same key-race vein, Highly Motivated’s maiden win at Belmont Sept. 27 was 1 3/4 lengths better than Known Agenda (Curlin)’s runner-up effort, and that colt broke his maiden next out at 3-5 odds and then went on to run third in the Dec.5 GII Remsen S. So Highly Motivated has been keeping relatively classy company. But he’s yet to race beyond 6 1/2 furlongs, which is the chief reason his ranking wasn’t elevated a peg or two on this list.

9) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)

O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $91,252.

Last Start: 1st Alw, Churchill Downs, Nov. 28

Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’

Next Start: Aiming for GIII Lecomte Stakes, FG, Jan. 16

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Juddmonte homebred Mandaloun, by Into Mischief out of an Empire Maker mare, is targeting the GIII Lecomte S. at 1 1/16 miles Jan. 16 at Fair Grounds in an attempt to run his record to 3-for-3. Dubbed a ‘TDN Rising Star’ off his Oct. 24 Keeneland MSW sprint win at six furlongs, Mandaloun added another furlong and powered home first in a Churchill allowance/ optional claimer under the lights late on the Nov. 28 card that featured all 2-year-old races. He loomed encouragingly with an outside bid after stalking the leaders, but Mandaloun had to be ridden with purpose between the five-sixteenths pole and the sixteenth pole to uncork his sustained half-mile rally. To his credit, he was quite responsive to that vigorous encouragement, winning by 1 3/4 lengths while punctuating his final half-furlong with a near-the-wire burst once he cleared his lone remaining rival.

10) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)

O/B-Shortleaf Stable (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $76,092.

Last Start: 1st Msw, Churchill, Nov. 15

Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

‘TDN Rising Star’ Caddo River closed at 27-1 odds in Pool 1 of the Derby Future Wager. By contrast, his sire, Hard Spun, went off at 24-1 in the Derby Sire Future Wager, meaning a discerning bettor could have had all of that stallion’s offspring instead of just one of them for a difference of only three points. Futures market inefficiencies aside, this Shortleaf Stable homebred merits respect based on his ability to withstand internal pace pressure as the runner-up in the “loaded” Belmont MSW won by No. 6-ranked Speaker’s Corner, which Caddo River then parlayed into a 9 1/2-length blowout in a one-turn Churchill MSW mile (83 Beyer) Nov. 15. This colt forged his way to the front and set demanding splits of :22.38 and :44.59 (albeit with a strong wind behind him on the backstretch), then torqued out smoothly for an unopposed, kept-to-task stretch run that got style points for looking poised and professional (as opposed to explosively flashy). Caddo River recently shipped from Churchill to Oaklawn, where he figures to earn a return trip to Louisville via the Hot Springs preps.

11) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban—Inclination, by Victory Gallop)

O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (Ky). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.

Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.

Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity,

3rd GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 18.

As a maiden, Keepmeinmind ran second and third behind No. 1-ranked Essential Quality in the GI Breeders’ Futurity S. and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, beaten only 5 1/4 combined lengths. This Laoban bay then went off favored in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. under the lights at Churchill, rallying from last to collar a tiring leader. But Keepmeinmind’s Churchill score registered a touch on the tepid side numbers-wise (80 Beyer), and it clocked .54 seconds slower than 2-year-old fillies covered the same 1 1/16-miles distance in the GII Golden Rod S. one race earlier. Keepmeinmind is likely to attempt the Oaklawn prep path, which is where his run-all-day dam-sire Victory Gallop won the then-GIII Rebel S. and then-GII Arkansas Derby prior to running second in both the 1998 Derby and GI Preakness S. and winning the GI Belmont S.

12) KING FURY (c, Curlin–Taris, by Flatter)

B-Heider Family Stables LLC (Ky). T-Ken McPeek. Sales history: $950,000 yrl ’19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-0-0, $142,739.

Last Start: 5th GII GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., Churchill, Nov. 28

Accomplishments: 1st Street Sense S.

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

King Fury, a $950,000 FTSAUG colt by Curlin, already owns two wins over the Churchill surface, and this Jan. 12 foal has a stamina-centric base with five races already at 1 1/16 miles (only one other Top 12 horse, Jackie’s Warrior, has made as many starts; four of them were one-turn contests). The best of King Fury’s routes was his Oct. 25 Street Sense S. score, in which this bay stalked, made an outside bid, and stayed on willingly to mow down an odds-on favorite who was gamely trying to re-rally. His seventh-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup 12 days later might have been too big an ask (although getting trapped on the far turn behind a spent speedster didn’t help), and trying new tactics as the blinkers-on pacemaker in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. generated only a fifth-place result. But that solid early-career foundation, attractive pedigree, and the capable patience of trainer Ken McPeek all signal that King Fury should not be eliminated from top-tier contention based on two subpar late-season races.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Brooklyn Strong (Wicked Strong): As a $5,000 OBSAPR buy, this Remsen S. upsetter has the potential to be the Cinderella story of 2021 provided his improvement arc continues upward.

Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow): Second in the Juvenile at 94-1, this colt ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) is a half to 2019 champ sprinter Mitole, but trainer Doug O’Neill said post-Breeders’ Cup “he’s built like a two-turn horse.”

Prate (Into Mischief): ‘TDN Rising Star’ dazzled in Fair Grounds sprint debut, which went faster than two stakes for juvenile males and fillies on same card. But trainer Brad Cox told DRF, “I think there’s a question mark if he’d stretch out” while indicating next race is likely another sprint.

Smiley Sobotka (Brody’s Cause): Trying stakes company off a MSW win, this $185,000 FTSAUG colt boldly repelled multiple bids to almost steal the Kentucky Jockey Club S.

Spielberg (Union Rags): His long drive won the GII Los Alamitos Futurity by a nose, but he was all out to reel in a tiring (but not quitting) 33-1 maiden.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for Dec. 30 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Stories to Watch in 2021

It’s time to turn the page from what was a horrendous year. Thank goodness. The year 2021 is upon us and, for horse racing, it figures to be an important and eventful 12 months. These are the stories we will be talking about and writing about in 2021:

Will Handle Be On The Rise?

Perhaps the most positive story to come out of 2020 has been the handle figures. With the pandemic causing a sizeable reduction when it comes to the amount of races that were run, betting figured to have declined steeply this year. Instead, entering December, it was off just 1.48% for the year. The number of total races run was down by 24.52%.

This could mean that handle will show a significant bump in 2021. The theory is that racing picked up some new customers during the months where it was the only sporting event going and that is why the handle numbers for 2020 didn’t fall off a cliff. With what should be a fairly normal racing schedule in 2021 and with racing perhaps having grown its customer base, this could be a year where the sport takes a needed step forward.

Then again, the 2020 figures could be nothing more than a matter of the pie being sliced differently. Was this simply a case of the same people betting virtually the same amount of money, but having fewer overall races to wager on?

It’s anyone’s guess, but there should be a concrete answer to that question in 2021.

What Will Be The Impact Of The New Lasix Rules?

Starting Jan. 1, Lasix will not be permitted in most stakes races at several of the sport’s top tracks. The ban will include all three Triple Crown races and most of the prep races for the GI Kentucky Derby. This comes after the same tracks banned Lasix in 2-year-old races this year.

The 2-year-old ban didn’t have much of an impact as trainers adjusted and learned to do without the anti-bleeding medication. There didn’t seem to be any major incidents. Most likely, the story will be much the same when it comes to the 2021 stakes races as the sport discovers it can get by just fine without Lasix.

What’s Next When It Comes To The Doping Indictments?

Since the bombshell story broke in March that Jorge Navarro, Jason Servis and 25 others had been indicted for their alleged involvement in the doping of horses, there haven’t been many additional developments. That should change in 2021.

By year’s end, it’s likely that the case will reach a conclusion, with the possibility that both trainers enter into a plea deal. If that happens, both could be sentenced some time in 2021.

We should also know whether or not there will be additional indictments. It appears that some of the individuals who were indicted could be talking, perhaps naming more names. We’ll find out in 2021.

What Will We Learn About The Horseracing Integrity And Safety Act?

Signed into law by President Trump Sunday, the Horseracing Safety and Integrity Act must go into effect by July 1, 2022. But it will still be an important story to follow in the year ahead. This should be the year where many questions begin to get answered, among them how much will it cost and how will it be paid for? Horseplayers are dreading the thought of having to pay for this through a higher takeout and owners don’t want to have to pay some sort of fee every time they start a horse, Both, unfortunately, are possibilities.

This will also be the year when the members of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority Board will be named.

Will Arlington Park Survive?

Churchill Downs, the owners of Arlington Park, has only committed to one more year of racing, which means 2021 could be it for one of the sport’s most beautiful tracks. There should be a place in the sport for a showcase track in a huge metropolitan area, but it doesn’t appear that there are many options on the horizon that would save Arlington. Let’s hope that there will be a reprieve for Arlington.

How Good Is Charlatan?

It’s not too early to jump on the Charlatan (Speightstown) bandwagon. Limited to just three races before being sidelined by an ankle injury, he looked like a horse with unlimited potential after crossing the wire first in the GI Arkansas Derby, a race he eventually lost due to a medication violation. He looks even better after his blowout win over a stellar field in the GI Runhappy Malibu S. Saturday at Santa Anita. The early favorite for 2021 Horse of the Year, Charlatan could have the kind of year that Ghostzapper had in 2004. Don’t expect a busy campaign, but he could dominate every time he shows up while posting ridiculously fast numbers.

What Will Be The Effect Of New Jersey’s Whip Ban?

Whip reform has been a slow process, but it will take a huge leap forward in 2021 when the whip will be banned in New Jersey racing. The only exception will be situations where it is needed for safety reasons. All eyes will be on Monmouth Park when it opens in the spring with an experiment that could change the debate when it comes to the future of the whip in racing. What happens in New Jersey could influence what direction California will take.

When Will Fans Be Allowed Back In The Stands?

Fans weren’t allowed to attend the Triple Crown races in 2020 or the Breeders’ Cup. The stands were empty at Saratoga and at Del Mar. That won’t change Jan. 1, but it appears likely that, with the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine, there will be a return to normalcy in 2021. That may not happen in time for the Kentucky Derby, but could it happen for, say, opening day of Saratoga? Nothing would be more welcome.

Can Godolphin Win Its First Kentucky Derby?

There aren’t many important races left in the world that Sheikh Mohammed has not won, but a victory in the Kentucky Derby has eluded one of the sport’s most powerful stables. Godolphin has sent out 10 starters in the Derby without a winner. Its best showing was a fourth-place finish by Frosted (Tapit) in 2015.

That very well could change in 2021. Essential Quality (Tapit), the GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner who will soon be named 2019’s Champion 2-Year-Old Male, is a horse without any apparent flaws. He has the ability, the right breeding and the right trainer in Brad Cox. He will have to deal with whatever Bob Baffert brings to Churchill Downs, but Essential Quality very well could be the one to get Godolphin into the Derby winner’s circle.

The post Stories to Watch in 2021 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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This Side Up: A Second Track to the Twin Spires

They keep telling us not to get ahead of ourselves, with all the promising news on vaccines. But however tough the winter still to come, we can surely now glimpse some kind of light at the end of the tunnel. And perhaps it’s not too ambitious even to start envisaging times and places when we might finally be able to pause, and look around, and savor anew those rituals of teeming color and vitality we now understand to be so integral to human fulfilment. Like, maybe–whisper it–the first Saturday in May?

Never mind whether that sacrosanct date should ever have been dragged into the Covid backwash. Granted a following wind, we hope to have the immemorial landmark back where it should be on the 2021 horizon. And, in contemplating the six-month odyssey ahead, we could not set a more logical course than from the Twin Spires themselves.

True, a reconnaissance on Thanksgiving weekend has in recent times tended not to yield the kind of dividends that first established the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. through the 1920s. By 1930, a race that established the competence of a maturing 2-year-old to go two turns round Churchill was volunteering the GI Kentucky Derby winner for a third time in four years. In the Breeders’ Cup era, however, the prospect of a juvenile championship (and the associated stud baubles) has diverted much traffic. Albeit Saturday’s field does include three taking in both races, coming here as an alternative is typically the work either of a horse that needs time; or of a horseman who takes time.

In the old days, mind you, even the slower-maturing juvenile was given a foundation on the track. Reigh Count took seven attempts to break his maiden and, prematurely sold to John D. Hertz, ended up announcing his Derby candidacy in the 1927 running. He had already given a scare to his new barnmate, Anita Peabody, in a famous running of the Futurity at Belmont. His deference, in narrowly yielding, she later rewarded with the audiences that produced two of only three foals she delivered before her death. (They proceeded to make 200 starts between them.)

His Kentucky Derby success set up Reigh Count not only as the dominant American Thoroughbred of 1928, but for an audacious migration the following year, when he won the Coronation Cup at Epsom and finished second in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot. Rumoured to have turned down a seven-figure bid for a horse he bought for $12,500, Hertz remarked: “I think a fellow who would pay $1 million for a horse ought to have his head examined. And the fellow who turned it down must be absolutely unbalanced.” Plus ca change…

As it was, Hertz retired the horse to Stoner Creek–the farm he had established on land recommended by Arthur B. Hancock Sr.–where he sired Count Fleet.

Stoner Creek was where Gus Koch acquired the lore he would eventually devote to three decades in the service of Hancock’s grandson Seth Hancock at Claiborne. In fact, he was giving up a Sunday afternoon to nurse the 31-year-old Count Fleet through a bout of colic when a bunch of girls drove up from Lexington to see the Triple Crown winner–one of whom, Theresa, would provide him with 10 children who have meanwhile maintained their surname as a Bluegrass byword for diligence and integrity.

Times change, but horses don’t, and nor, accordingly, does the essence of horsemanship. But the habits and strategies of horsemen do evolve. Since 1931, only three Kentucky Derby winners have emerged from the Kentucky Jockey Club S.: Cannonade (1973-74) and Super Saver (2009-10) won both, while the throwback Real Quiet–who, just like Reigh Count, had taken seven attempts to win a maiden–was third in the 1997 running before coming of age on his return to Louisville.

The old school remains reliably represented today by Barclay Tagg, who spurned an automatic berth in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year to come here with Tiz The Law (Constitution). Things didn’t work out on the day, in a messy race on the slop, but then one of the principal purposes of a patient education is learning to cope with adversity. Sure enough, that proved to be Tiz The Law’s only defeat until the Derby was finally staged in September; and very possibly he might have won that, too, on its customary date.

The next generation has a clear leader now in Brad Cox, whose barn has become so powerful that he can take a twin-track approach to the race that defines his native city. With the Breeders’ Cup laurels already secured, here he introduces two maiden winners to stakes company.

Mind you, for a horse just getting started, Swill (Munnings) has been talked about for quite a while already: not least since he was nearly brought down at Saratoga in the summer, coasting past the rest in the gallop-out. He sheds the blinkers as he prepares for that second turn, where he can hopefully draw upon the stamina definitely loaded behind his third dam. But we already know he likes this surface: sharp in his maiden, his :59.8 breeze a couple of weeks ago was the fastest of 57 that morning.

One step at a time. Placing your horses in the right company is one of the critical attributes of a trainer, and Cox has yet to have a Derby starter. But whichever horse graduates from this race will have one fewer query if able to make it all the way through, and return here in May.

Essential Quality (Tapit), meanwhile, is himself ticking over at Churchill before moving down to New Orleans. The Fair Grounds, of course, is where Cox has laid much of the groundwork for the stardom he sealed with those four winners at the Breeders’ Cup. He will be seeking his fourth straight training title, and it would doubtless sit well with him to launch Essential Quality in the GII Risen Star S., or maybe in the GII Southwest S. up at Oaklawn–another track where he has excelled.

The people at Oaklawn did much to sustain morale for the entire industry as the pandemic nightmare took hold. Conceivably they may bring the whole dismal saga full circle. But wherever and whenever it can happen, what a swell party that will be. And who knows? In the meantime, the Swill party could start here and now.

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Breeders’ Cup: Godolphin Wins Third Straight John Deere Award For Outstanding Breeder

Strengthened by victories from She's a Julie, Lord North (IRE) and Essential Quality, Godolphin has won its third consecutive John Deere Award, honoring the outstanding breeder of the 2020 Breeders' Cup World Championships and the Breeders' Cup Challenge Series.

The John Deere Award, presented by Breeders' Cup Limited and NTRA Advantage, emphasizes the contributions of breeders to the Breeders' Cup program. The industry's breeders provide funding for the purses for the World Championships through the annual nominations of foals and stallions.

NTRA Advantage and John Deere will award a John Deere TS Gator Utility Vehicle to Godolphin.

The John Deere award winner is determined by the breeder who received the highest number of first-place finishes in Graded/Group stakes in the Breeders' Cup Challenge Series of 81 stakes races in nine countries, and in the 14 Breeders' Cup World Championships races (13 Grade 1 events and one Grade 2), which was held this year at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Ky. Each Grade/Group 1 win was worth 10 points; Grade/Group 2 wins were worth six points; Grade/Group 3 wins were worth four points; and listed stakes wins were worth two points.

Godolphin-bred runners earned 40 points by winning four Group/Grade 1 races in England and the United States. Godolphin finished 10 points in front of both Coolmore Stud and Northern Farm/Northern Racing, which tied for second place with 30 points each.

Godolphin's run to the title began on June 13 when the 5-year-old mare She's a Julie, a bay daughter of Elusive Quality out of Kydd Gloves by Dubai Millennium (GB), captured the Ogden Phipps Stakes at Belmont Park, which was “Win and You're In” for the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1). Just four days later, the 4-year-old gelding Lord North, a bay son of Dubawi (IRE) out of the Giant's Causeway mare Najoum, gave Godolphin its second victory in the competition when he won the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot. The Prince of Wales's Stakes was a Breeders' Cup Challenge Series race which earned Lord North a free berth into the Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1).

In the fall at Keeneland, the 2-year-old colt Essential Quality secured the John Deere title for Godolphin. The striking gray/roan son of Tapit out of Delightful Quality by Elusive Quality took the “Win and You're In” Claiborne Breeders' Futurity on Oct. 3, which earned him an automatic starting position in the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance. One month later, Essential Quality won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile by three-quarters of a length.

“Godolphin's third consecutive John Deere Award is a true testament to their longtime success among international breeders,” said Dora Delgado, Breeders' Cup Chief Racing Officer and Executive Vice President. “We congratulate His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum and the entire Godolphin team, and we are grateful to this organization and the continuing commitment from all Thoroughbred breeders around the world who support the Breeders' Cup racing and nomination programs.

“We are also very proud of our partners John Deere and NTRA Advantage for recognizing the importance of the breeding industry with the sponsorship of this award,” added Delgado.

“The Breeders' Cup and John Deere's commitment to International Racing reflects the goals and ambitions of the global Godolphin breeding program to strive to compete at the highest level,” said Jimmy Bell, President, Godolphin USA. “Godolphin is honored to be recognized with this award.”

“John Deere would like to once again congratulate Godolphin on this excellent achievement for the third consecutive year,” said Auston Till, Manager Partner Sales, John Deere Ag & Turf. “We are thrilled to award a John Deere Gator™ Utility Vehicle for this outstanding accomplishment.”

The overall competition for the John Deere Award played out at the sport's highest level, as progeny of Coolmore and Northern Farm/Northern Racing also demonstrated standout performances in their deadlock for the runner-up spot. Coolmore-bred Group 1 winners won three Breeders' Cup Challenge Series races, beginning with Love (IRE), who won the Darley Yorkshire Oaks at York on Aug. 20; Magical, who took the Irish Champion Stakes on Sept. 12 at Leopardstown; and Shale (IRE), winner of the Moyglare Stud Stakes on Sept. 13 at The Curragh.

Offspring from Northern Farm/Northern Racing also won three Group 1 Breeders' Cup Challenges races, all in Japan. Almond Eye (JPN) won the Victoria Mile on May 17 at Tokyo Racecourse, Gran Alegria (JPN) took the Yasuda Kinen at Tokyo on June 7, and Chrono Genesis (JPN) captured the Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin Racecourse on June 28.

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