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McIngvale: Where You Bet Matters

Jim McIngvale, also known as Mattress Mack, is an entrepreneur, furniture mogul, philanthropist and horse owner based in Houston. McIngvale campaigned 2015 Breeders' Cup Sprint winner and Eclipse Award champion male sprinter Runhappy and has become a major racing sponsor while promoting his horse as a stallion at Claiborne Farm. McIngvale can be reached at 281-844-1963 or mack@galleryfurniture.com.

As handicappers and racing enthusiasts across America prepare to dive into this week's sensational Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, keep this in mind: Where you bet matters.

It took 25-plus years of horse ownership and a $2.4 million wager for me to fully appreciate the huge difference it makes where a bet is placed. It was a wake-up call for me, and it should be for you. Everyone in horse racing whenever possible should put their money through the windows or self-bet machines at the racetrack.

If you're like I was, you've never really thought about how each dollar gets chopped up. A bet is a bet, you probably think. You get the same payoff if you bet on-track, through simulcasting or online. Even at a casino that is booking the bets, you get track odds, albeit with caps.

But the return to the industry — for the owners whose horses put on the show and for the track that provides the venue — wildly varies depending on where a bet is made. For the long-term viability of the sport, those who work in and/or love horse racing should learn where the money goes and take seriously betting where it maximizes purses.

I was committed to placing at least $2 million on Essential Quality in the Kentucky Derby in order to cover my Gallery Furniture promotion where customers would get their money back if the Derby favorite won. The casinos worked hard to get my action, which they had received for promotions tied to the outcome of the World Series and Super Bowl. It was an eye-opener to learn what it meant in additional dollars to horse owners if I made the largest Kentucky Derby bet in history at the home of the Derby instead of a casino or online.

I lost my $2.4 million total in win bets when Essential Quality finished fourth but sold a boatload of mattresses and had a lot of customers snapping their fingers during the Run for the Roses. But a big winner was Churchill Downs' purse account for horsemen, which accrued $240,000 from my bets alone.

Purses are the lifeblood of American racing — it's what makes our racing unique and is vital to its sustainability. There's a substantial difference in the money that goes to horse owners if a bet is placed onsite at the track or if it's bet through an online platform, simulcasting, a casino or off-shore. It also makes a big difference to the track staging the races, with the significant costs entailed in building, maintaining and staffing the facility.

Had I made my wager in Las Vegas, where the casinos do not have a contract with Churchill Downs and therefore could not bet into the parimutuel pools, no money would have flowed back to Kentucky horsemen. If bet anywhere but on track, at best the funding to purses would have been would have about half. At worse, zero.

If we care about the industry, the last place we should bet is offshore or with casinos that book the bets and don't contribute anything to our mutuel pools or purse account. Offshore sites might offer lucrative rebates – but they can do that because they have no outlay for the cost of putting on the product.

I'm not bashing reputable online betting operations or simulcasting. The pandemic proved how vital ADW operations are to racing, how we were able to stay in business with spectator-less racing while other sports were shut down.

Millennials and Generation Z's office is their phone, so ADWs are expanding our reach but at the same time should pay an equitable rate to racetracks and horsemen. Kudos to ADWs that have worked with various tracks and horsemen's groups in California, Kentucky and elsewhere to make sure ADW betting on-site returns the same amount to purses as if the bet were placed with a mutuel clerk or self-bet machine.

Of course, if we're asking horseplayers and racing participants to bet at the track where possible, tracks likewise must make their facilities and the experience inviting for fans. Every day, and not just on select days.

Horse racing has a great opportunity to step up our game and attract new fans. The Kentucky Derby and Preakness ratings showed people are interested in horse racing. Heck, my Gallery Furniture promotion shows that the Kentucky Derby and racing resonate with the guy and gal on the street.

We've got to attract younger people. We need to attract the followers of Barstool Sports, Bleacher Report, Action Network. We need to embrace sports-betting content.

There is no easy fix. It takes commitment, effort and ingenuity. But our sport and industry are worth it. Excluding football games, the Kentucky Derby was the third-most watched sporting event since the pandemic hit in March 2020, trailing only the NCAA men's basketball championship game won by Baylor and Gonzaga's semifinal victory over UCLA, according to Sports Media Watch. That's impressive.

The Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown and horse racing are still relevant. But you've got to flame the fire — and also be smart about where we bet. Cumulatively, it makes a huge difference.

The post McIngvale: Where You Bet Matters appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Equibase Analysis: Rock Your World Could Prove Tough To Catch In Belmont Stakes

Back in its traditional spot on the calendar five weeks after the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, the Grade 1, $1.5 Million Belmont Stakes doesn't have a Triple Crown on the line, or even the Derby winner trying to make amends for losing the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes. What the Belmont does have is a field of eight including five horses which ran in the Derby and then expressly sat out the Preakness for this opportunity. Those five horses, with their Derby placings, are Hot Rod Charlie (third), Essential Quality (fourth), Known Agenda (ninth), Bourbonic (13th) and Rock Your World (17th). Preakness winner Rombauer tries to win the last two legs of the Triple Crown, while France Go de Ina attempts to improve off a seventh of 10 finish in that race. Overtook rounds out the field, having finished third in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes over the track four weeks ago.

Analysis Part One – Main Contenders

The strategy for Rock Your World in the Derby was to go to the lead just as he had done one month earlier winning the Santa Anita Derby, earning a career best 103 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure figure in the process. That plan was laid to rest immediately when one of jockey Joel Rosario's feet came out of the irons, resulting in a shift in his weight and more importantly, the inability to get the colt to the front. From there both horse and jockey could do nothing but watch as his #1 weapon was neutralized. Shipping back to California for three strong workouts, the most recent a five furlong drill in :58.4 which was the best of 34 on the day, lightning is highly unlikely to strike twice. As such, Rock Your World should be able to control the pace from the start, possibly slowing the tempo down to below average, and go on for the win in the same manner as a number of winners of the Belmont in the last 20 years such as D' Tara, Justify and American Pharoah.

In spite of finishing fourth of 19 as the betting favorite in the Derby, Essential Quality continued a pattern of improvement started in his first start of the year as a three year old in February. The talented colt won the Southwest Stakes with a 105 figure before a career-best 109 ™ figure in the Blue Grass Stakes in April. In the Derby, Essential Quality made a rallying move while wide to go from seventh (five and one-half lengths back) to fourth (three-quarters of a length back) with a quarter mile to go but ran evenly thereafter. Although the 109 figure was the same, one thing Essential Quality has in his favor for the Belmont is his tactical speed because if he sits second in the early stages as he did in the Blue Grass, he may be able to pass Rock Your World in the final strides where he was unable to pass Medina Spirit in the Derby. The reason for this is his pedigree, as Essential Quality is the only son of Tapit in the field. Tapit produced the 2014 (Tonalist), 2016 (Creator) and 2017 (Tapwrit) winners of the Belmont. Tapit produces horses which can run 12 furlongs and more as evidenced by STATS Race Lens Query which reveals the sire has produced 13 different winners at distances from a mile and one-half to two miles over the last five years, accounting for 18 wins, with six of those coming at Belmont Park.

Known Agenda ran just a bit less poorly in the Derby as opposed to Rock Your World, checking in ninth after advancing from last of 19 in the early stages. That's insignificant as compared to his two races prior to that. He added blinkers for the first of the pair in February and won by 11 lengths with a 103 figure. Next he won the Florida Derby with a 112 figure and did so easily. Known Agenda is trained by Todd Pletcher, as is Bourbonic and Overtook. Pletcher has won this race with Rags to Riches (2007), Palace Malice (2013) and Tapwrit (2017). Considering his win in the Florida Derby earned a 112 figure, which is the best figure earned by any horse in this field, and considering North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides the colt for the fourth straight time, Known Agenda could bounce back to top form and post the mile upset to win.

Analysis Part Two – Second Tier Contenders

As for Rombauer, although he has improved in each race as a 3-year-old, going from a 95 figure, to 100, to 103 in the Preakness, I have concerns about his ability to run a mile and one-half as well as his ability to stay close early. Historically, a few horses have come from far back which is the way Rombauer likes to run, but for the most part winners of the Belmont have either led from the start or been within two lengths for most of the race. Considering the likely early pace edge Rock Your World possesses, Rombauer could be relegated to a minor award.

Similarly, Hot Rod Charlie's third place effort in the Derby may give bettors incentive to bet him more heavily than is appropriate given his somewhat low probability to win in my opinion. Hot Rod Charlie earned a 97 figure when beaten a neck by Medina Spirit in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in January, before improving to 99 when winning the Louisiana Derby in April. In the Kentucky Derby, Hot Rod Charlie moved up quickly after a half-mile to get into third position then kept that same position the entire last six furlongs of the race. It is possible he could be sitting in second behind Rock Your World in the early portions of the Belmont instead of Essential Quality, but I see jockey Luis Saez on Essential Quality being more aggressive from his inside post and denying Hot Rod Charlie that opportunity, which means he would have to out finish Rock Your World who has run slowly on the lead from the start. Considering he couldn't pass Medina Spirit the entire length of the stretch in the Derby, I think that's a tall order.

Analysis Part Three – Non-Contenders:

There are few horses which don't seem to be at the same level as the rest, so it appears logical to eliminate those as win contenders. Bourbonic started 18th in the Derby and ended up 13th. Prior to that he earned a 100 figure winning the Wood Memorial at odds of 72 to 1, and prior to that had no stakes experience at all. As a matter of fact he broke his maiden in a maiden claiming race. He just doesn't seem good enough or fast enough to be competitive.

Similarly, Overtook finished second in the Withers Stakes in February off a maiden win with a 97 figure then took three months off and ran evenly from start to finish in the Peter Pan Stakes with a 99 figure. Overtook is one of three trained by Todd Pletcher, shares some ownership with Known Agenda and adds blinkers. He doesn't appear fast enough to take on likely early leader Rock Your World but then again stranger things have happened. Still, although a pace factor I don't see him being in the top three at the end.

France Go de Ina pressed the pace when third in the early stages of the Preakness then faded to seventh, earning a 78 figure. It would take an astronomical amount of improvement for him to be competitive here in my opinion.

Win Contenders:
Rock Your World
Essential Quality
Known Agenda

Belmont Stakes – Grade 1
Race 11 at Belmont Park
Saturday, June 5 – Post Time 6:49 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Half
Three Years Old
Purse: $1.5 Million
T.V.: NBC 5 – 7 PM E.T.

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Rombauer Holds One-Point Lead Over Essential Quality In NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll

John and Diane Fradkin's Grade 1 Preakness Stakes winner Rombauer has a one-point lead over Godolphin's Essential Quality in the latest National Thoroughbred Racing Association Top Three-Year-Old Poll, leading five of the top 10 ranked horses who will be starting in Saturday's Grade 1, 153rd Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets at Belmont Park.

The final NTRA Top Three-Year-Old-Poll will be released next Monday, June 7, so Saturday's Belmont Stakes will have a definitive impact as to which horse finishes with the No. 1 ranking.

Rombauer, trained by Michael McCarthy, is the 3-1 second choice on the Belmont Stakes morning line. Rombauer received eight first-place votes and 258 points. Godolphin's Essential Quality, fourth as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve, has 12 first-place votes and 257 points. Trained by Brad Cox, Essential Quality is the 2-1 morning line favorite in the Belmont. Juddmonte's Mandaloun, also trained by Cox, is in third place with four first-place votes and 213 points.

Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing, Strauss Bros Racing and Gainesway Thoroughbreds' Hot Rod Charlie, third in the Kentucky Derby, is in fourth place. Trained by Doug O'Neill, Hot Rod Charlie, the 7-2 third choice in the Belmont, has 211 points. Zedan Racing's Medina Spirit, third in the Preakness after winning the Kentucky Derby, is in fifth place. Trained by Bob Baffert, Medina Spirit has six first-place votes and 177 points.

Winchell Thoroughbreds' Midnight Bourbon, second in the Preakness, is in sixth place. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Midnight Bourbon has 158 points. Shadwell Stable's undefeated filly, Malathaat, winner of the Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks, is in seventh place. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Malathaat has 145 points. Another Asmussen-trained runner, Kirk and Judy Robison's Jackie's Warrior, who won the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile presented by LG&E and KU and is entered in Saturday's Grade 1 Woody Stephens at Belmont, is in eighth place with 63 points. Two other Belmont Stakes starters complete the top 10. Hronis Racing and Talla Racing's Rock Your World, winner of the Grade 1 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, is in ninth place with 51 points. Rock Your World is listed at 9-2 on the morning line for the Belmont. St. Elias Stable's Known Agenda, trained by Todd Pletcher, is in 10th place with 37 points. Known Agenda is 6-1 on the morning line for the Belmont.

Godolphin's 4-year-old Mystic Guide retains the No. 1 rating in the NTRA National Thoroughbred Poll for older horses. Winner of the Group 1 Dubai World Cup at Meydan on March 27, Mystic Guide had his second workout since the World Cup, breezing five furlongs in 1:01.8 on Saturday at Fair Hill in Maryland. Trained by Mike Stidham, Mystic Guide received 28 first-place votes and 284 points. Now tied in second place with 194 points apiece are Korea Racing Authority's 5-year-old Knicks Go, with three first-place votes, and Robert and Lawana Low's 4-year-old Colonel Liam. Trained by Brad Cox, Knicks Go, winner of the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup, is scheduled to start in Saturday's Grade 1 Hill 'N' Dale Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont Park. Colonel Liam, trained by Todd Pletcher, finished in a dead heat for first with Domestic Spending in the Grade 1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes at Churchill Downs. Colonial Liam drew post 10 for Saturday's Grade 1 Resorts Casino World Manhattan Stakes at Belmont.

The 4-year-old Charlatan, runner-up in the Group 1 Saudi Cup, drops to fourth place with 166 points. My Racehorse, Spendthrift Farm LLC and Madaket Stables' Monomoy Girl, the 2020 older dirt female Eclipse Award-winner, remains in fifth place with 156 points. Godolphin's 4-year-old Maxfield, trained by Brendan Walsh, jumps from eighth to sixth place this week with one first-place vote and 131 points. St. George Stable's 5-year-old mare Letruska (123 points), winner of Oaklawn's Grade 1 Grade Apple Blossom, falls one position to seventh place. The 4-year-old Gamine, last year's champion female sprinter, drops from sixth to eighth place. Owned by Michael Lund Peterson and trained by Bob Baffert, Gamine has one first-place vote and 118 points. The Cox-trained 4-year-old filly Shedaresthedevil (89 points), winner of Churchill's Grade 1 La Troienne Stakes, stays in ninth place. Completing the top 10 is Klaravich Stable's 4-year-old Domestic Spending (57 points), who is also entered in Saturday's Manhattan for trainer Chad Brown.

The NTRA Top Thoroughbred polls are the sport's most comprehensive surveys of experts. Every week eligible journalists and broadcasters cast votes for their top 10 horses, with points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis. All horses that have raced in the U.S., are in training in the U.S., or are known to be pointing to a major event in the U.S. are eligible for the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. Voting in the Top Three-Year-Old Thoroughbred Poll concludes following the Belmont Stakes on June 5 and the Top Thoroughbred Poll is scheduled to be conducted through Nov. 6.

The full results for the NTRA Thoroughbred Polls can be found on the NTRA website at: https://www.ntra.com/ntra-top-thoroughbred-poll-june-1-2021/

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Essential Quality Draws Post Two in Belmont

Godolphin's Essential Quality (Tapit) will break from post two and was installed as the 2-1 morning-line favorite when post positions were drawn Tuesday morning for Saturday's GI Belmont S. The Brad Cox trainee suffered the first loss of his career when fourth in the GI Kentucky Derby, but had previously been undefeated in five starts and was named last year's champion 2-year-old male.

“He ran what I thought was a winning race in the Derby; he didn't have the trip, but he showed up and he's been improving in every start,” said Cox, who will be saddling his first Belmont Stakes runner. “I'm confident that he can handle the mile and a half. Just based off his works and his races, he's very steady and doesn't seem to get tired. He has a tremendous amount of stamina that I think he was just blessed with based on his pedigree. Luis [Saez] has a ton of confidence in the colt and he's confident Essential Quality can get the distance. We're hopefully set up for a big race Saturday.”

Breaking just to the outside of the morning-line favorite in the eight-horse Belmont is John and Diane Fradkin's Rombauer (Twirling Candy). Winner of the May 15 GI Preakness S., the colt will break from post three and is 3-1 on the morning line. One stall further out in the four-hole is Derby third finisher Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow), who was installed as the 7-2 third choice. The fourth choice at 9-2 is expected pacemaker GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby hero Rock Your World (Candy Ride {Arg}), who drew post seven.

“In an ideal world, we wanted to be to the outside of Rock Your World since he figures to be leaving there pretty hard, but that didn't happen,” said Doug O'Neill, trainer of Hot Rod Charlie. “We're just grateful to be in the gate and to have [Flavien] Prat and to have the horse doing well … I think it's a very evenly-matched crop. You could throw a blanket over about 10 of them on any given day that could jump up and leave the group. I'm biased of course, but I think 'Charlie' is top-tier.”

Todd Pletcher will saddle three of the eight in the 1 1/2-mile Classic, with rail-drawn GII Wood Memorial S. upsetter Bourbonic (Bernardini, 15-1), GI Curlin Florida Derby scorer Known Agenda (Curlin, 6-1) in post six and Overtook (Curlin) widest out in the eight-hole at 20-1. Japanese hope France Go de Ina (Will Take Charge) is the longest shot on the morning line at 30-1 and will break from post five.

“I don't think the post positions matter so much with my three,” said Pletcher. “I think, of all the Triple Crown events, post position is least important here, especially in an eight-horse field. I was happy with all the posts. I think the real key is we need an honest pace and there are three of four horses in here who will try to be prominently placed early and if they set an honest pace, I think that will help all three of mine.”

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