T. D. Thornton’s Belmont Predictions, Sponsored by Fasig-Tipton

This week's TDN Triple Crown feature examines the GI Belmont S. entrants listed in “likeliest winner” order.

1) Mo Donegal (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
O-Donegal Racing & Repole Stable. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 yrl '20 KEESEP.
You could argue that Mo Donegal lost the GI Kentucky Derby at the post draw after getting stuck with the dreaded rail gate. But his fifth-place effort, beaten 5 3/4 lengths in a stretch finish that featured the 1-2-3 horses all running full-tilt to the wire, is actually quite a bit better than it appears on paper. This $250,000 KEESEP son of Uncle Mo was too patiently handled by Irad Ortiz, Jr., who didn't ask this athletic colt for his best run until 2 1/2 furlongs out, and Mo then had to float 12 wide off the turn to find clear passage. But he still uncorked with his characteristic acceleration inside the eighth pole, and that type of late-race torque has been evident throughout Mo's career. This colt simply keeps gaining ground in deep stretch, even when the final furlongs are quick, and his company lines are far more robust than any of his Belmont S. foes. Don't be tempted to stamp him as strictly an off-the-tailgate type, because Mo is agile and nimble enough to take up the running from a sweet stalking spot in an eight-horse field where he's not as likely to meet up with the trip trouble that he often encounters.

2) We the People (c, Constitution–Letchworth, by Tiznow)
O-Winstar Farm, LLC, Bobby Flay, CMNWLTH, & Siena Farm, LLC.
B-Henley Farms Inc (KY). T-R Brisset. Sales History: $110k wnlg '19 KEENOV, $220k yrl '20 KEESEP, $230k 2yo FTFMAR.
We the People possesses both a very high cruising gear and a reputation for being difficult to handle. His brief past performance block features a pair of open-length wins at Oaklawn and a blowout, 10 1/4-length, tour-de-force romp in the GII Peter Pan S. four weeks ago (103 Beyer Speed Figure). But sandwiched in between was a hot-and-bothered effort in the weak GI Arkansas Derby in which this Constitution colt couldn't make the lead, then got hooked wide around both turns, beating only two horses. Which We the People will show up as the morning-line fave for the third leg of the Triple Crown? Sure, he's won with authority over Belmont's main track. But that was a sealed, post-rain surface rated “good,” and the field contained only one horse who had ever won a stakes (a minor one at that). Still, the raw power of that victory will be enough to sway pari-mutuel supporters to this colt's side. We the People was always in control in the Peter Pan, and it's hard to shake the visual of him turning for home under a hand ride from Flavien Prat while everyone else in his widening wake was desperately whipping and driving. He also had a nice spurt of extra acceleration in upper stretch-the kind of move where Prat was probably just gauging what was under the hood for future reference.

3) Rich Strike (c, Keen Ice–Gold Strike, by Smart Strike)
O-RED TR-Racing, LLC. B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Eric Reed.
When a horse wins a race at 80-1 odds, you can usually point to evidence that the favorites didn't fire, the pace blew up, or a number of logical contenders ran into trip trouble. None of those things happened in the Derby. Sonny Leon sliced and diced his way to a clear inside path through the far turn, and Rich Strike did the rest, taking aim with purpose and reeling in two favorites who weren't quitting. Is the effort replicable? This connections of this former $30,000 maiden-claiming son of Keen Ice defied convention and skipped the GI Preakness S. with the aim of having a tighter fighter at 12 furlongs, a distance trainer Eric Reed believes is within this colt's scope. His 101 Beyer in Louisville represents a 17-point jump off his best career effort, and Rich Strike is going to have to come up with a similar or better fig if he is to be draped in a blanket of white carnations.

Rich Strike poses for every photo before Saturday's Belmont Stakes. | Sarah Andrew

But you have to wonder if he's going to be tactically forced out of his sweet spot, because dropping far behind the field against this crew is likely going to leave him too much work to do.

Then again, this is a colt who wasn't too far off the action going a one-turn a mile at Churchill at age two (a 17 1/4-length upset), so maybe he's a touch more versatile than critics give him credit for. A bigger concern might be Leon's inexperience riding over Belmont's vast, sweeping main-track configuration, which has been known to stymie riders unfamiliar with its 1 1/2-miles circumference. Leon is named to ride in only one race (on the grass) at Belmont on Friday, then will have what will seem like an interminably long wait on Saturday (7 1/2 hours) between his only main-track mounts in the opener and in the Belmont S. itself.

4) Barber Road (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image)
O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY).
T-John Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wnlg '19 KEENOV.
Despite having to rally from last and getting parked in the 14 path turning for home, this Race Day gray ($15,000 KEENOV) put in a fairly decent sustained run over the final three furlongs of the Derby. Barber Road gets a jockey change to Joel Rosario for the Belmont, and will race without blinkers for the first time since his career debut at Colonial Downs last August. He's winless since Nov. 10, but has amassed a bankroll north of $650,000 by chipping away with minor awards in graded stakes. Longer distances certainly appear within the scope of his pedigree. His paternal grandsire is Tapit, the sire of four Belmont S. winners, and damsire Southern Image won two Grade I routes at Triple Crown distances in 2004 (the Santa Anita H. and the Pimlico Special). But the big question for Barber Road isn't staying power-it's whether he's fast enough. His best Beyer tops out at 94, seven points below the par for this race.

5) Nest (f, Curlin–Marion Ravenwood, by A.P. Indy). O-Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, & Michael House.
B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 yrl '20 KEESEP.
Nest's family tree is replete with distance-centric influences. Her sire, Curlin, lost the 2007 Belmont by a head, barely coming up short behind the gallant filly Rags to Riches (who was trained by Nest's trainer, Todd Pletcher). Nest's damsire, A.P. Indy, won the '92 Belmont. This filly is also a full sister to Idol, last year's winner of the Santa Anita H. She was most recently a grinding second in the GI Kentucky Oaks, incrementally gaining on the winner, and before that, she popped for an 8 1/4-length victory in the GI Ashland S. in April. That score was notable for a prolonged, 4 1/2-furlong bid over Keeneland's short-stretch configuration in which Nest drove past the front four leaders with authority midway on the far turn. Jose Ortiz picks up the mount for the first time, as his brother, Irad, sticks with Nest's uncoupled stablemate, Mo Donegal.

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Thursday Morning with Kentucky Derby Winner Rich Strike

ELMONT, NY – With regular exercise rider Gabriel Lagunes in the saddle, GI Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike (Keen Ice) circled the shedrow shortly after 8:30 a.m. on a sticky Thursday morning at Belmont Park.

Making his way through the picturesque Belmont backstretch about 10 minutes later with a good-sized entourage in tow, Rich Strike entered the paddock via the tunnel as owner Richard Dawson and trainer Eric Reed, both sporting plenty of black-and-red Rich Strike swag, chatted by the famed Secretariat statue.

With torrential pre-dawn thunderstorms leaving the main track a sloppy-and-sealed mess, it was a second straight day of light training for the 7-2 third choice on the morning-line for Saturday's 154th GI Belmont Stakes.

“All we were doing today was getting a little maintenance work in him and he had to go school in the gate anyway,” Reed said outside of a sun-splashed Barn 29 after the chestnut was done getting cleaned up.

“With the off track, I didn't want to turn him around in case he decided to get real tough. So, we just went the mile-and-a-half in the wrong direction, stood in the gate and brought him home. Tomorrow, he'll have a little bit of a gallop.”

Rich Strike has breezed twice since shocking the world at 80-1 off the also-eligible list in Louisville, most recently working five furlongs in a bullet :59 at Churchill Downs May 30. The $30,000 claim-to-fame put on a show with an absolute powerhouse gallop at Belmont Park on Tuesday.

“That's what we call the 'happy gallop.' He'll do that once a week,” Reed said. “Two days prior coming off the track with normal gallops, he was rearing up. He was telling me, 'You haven't trained me hard enough.' We don't try to go that fast, we just let him have his way. Usually, he'll set his own pace, then he comes back to us after a little bit.”

After receiving plenty of criticism for taking the road seldomly traveled and skipping the GI Preakness S. with the Derby winner, Reed continues to have no regrets about heading to the final leg of the Triple Crown with a fresh horse.

“It wouldn't have worked with him,” Reed said. “It takes him three weeks to calm down. In a two-week turnaround, he would've been crazy in the paddock. He wouldn't have been behaving on the track. His mind would be way too aggressive and it would've jeopardized this race.”

He continued, “Not that we thought this was a race we couldn't lose. It just made a lot more sense because it was the proper time between races and we know he'll get the distance. Our problem is, he has a terrible running style for this race. Either he has to change it on his own or we have to get really lucky because you just don't come from last and win this race. Since the Derby though, he's a much different animal about how he does things.”

As far as life after the Triple Crown series for Rich Strike, following a break for a month or two, Reed has identified the GI Runhappy Travers S. at Saratoga Aug. 27 as his next potential target.

“Our intentions, if things go well, is to run him next year,” Reed said. “We don't want to stop at the end of this year. We're not gonna dance every dance and run every race, we're gonna pick the right ones and give it our best shot.”

It's almost been five weeks now. Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Eric Reed. How does that sound to you?

“I can't get used to that,” Reed concluded with a big smile.

“I've been real busy and I love what's going on for my guys. I haven't had time to step back yet. I'll get that chance after the Belmont. Then, I think it will all soak in.”

'We' Love the Rain…

Likely GI Belmont S. favorite and controlling speed We the People (Constitution) certainly didn't mind the wet going Thursday morning.

The runaway, front-running winner of a saturated renewal of the local GIII Peter Pan S. stood like a gentleman beneath trainer Rodolphe Brisset after entering the track through the paddock at 7:52 a.m. The 'TDN Rising Star' began to jog the wrong way with the pony about five minutes later, and, after schooling in the starting gate, came rolling down the center of the stretch outside of the dogs for another very good-looking, one-mile gallop.

While leading sire Tapit can't add to his already record four Belmont Stakes tallies this year, his presence will certainly still be felt Saturday. The Gainesway kingpin is the grandsire of both We the People and Kentucky Derby sixth-place finisher Barber Road (Race Day), and he is also the broodmare sire of the lightly raced Preakness third-place finisher Creative Minister (Creative Cause), respectively.

For more pedigree tidbits on the field of eight, stay tuned for Saturday's 'Where Did They Come From?' feature.

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Rich Strike Was on Vet’s List, But Reed Says It’s No Big Deal

Rich Strike (Keen Ice), the winner of the GI Kentucky Derby and a starter in the upcoming GI Belmont S., was placed on the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission's veterinarian's list May 22 and did not come off the list until last Sunday. However, trainer Eric Reed reports that the horse's presence on the vet's list is not a cause for concern.

“He was on there because of routine stuff that we had a chiropractor work on,” Reed said “In Kentucky, with anything like that you have to report it to them. You have to report everything and I think it's going to get even stricter with HISA about to come in.”

Reed said that chiropractic work has been a part of Rich Strike's routine between races.

“We work on his back constantly,” Reed said. “He's a big muscular horse and it's part of what we do. We worked on him before the Derby as well. This is not a big deal at all. Beyond a doubt, he's fine and will be ready to go Saturday.”

Reed said this was the only time Rich Strike had appeared on the vet's list.

While still on the list, Rich Strike worked five furlongs between races at Churchill Downs May 30 in :59 flat.

To have a Kentucky Derby winner go on the vet's list just 15 days after his victory, does raise some questions. Why would a horse appear on the list after what seems like a routine matter? Do all horses that undergo chiropractic work have to appear on the vet's list? How long must they be on the list and what needs to happen for them to get off the list?

Answers were not forthcoming as it is the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission's policy not to disclose any information about horses that make it onto the vet's list.

“The Commission does not discuss medical records and that includes veterinary records,” said Commission spokesperson Kristin Voskuhl.

Prior to the Derby, Derby starters Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), Charge It (Tapit) and Barber Road (Race Day) had spent time on the Kentucky list.

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Derby Winner Rich Strike Has His First Gallop at Belmont

Rich Strike (Keen Ice), upset winner of the GI Kentucky Derby, got his first look at the Belmont Park main track on Thursday, galloping 1 1/2 miles over the sloppy going with regular exercise rider Gabriel Lagunes in the irons. The chestnut arrived at Belmont early Wednesday morning to prepare for the GI Belmont S. on June 11.

“It seems like he's done everything a little bit better than I thought he would,” said trainer Eric Reed. “We actually took him out yesterday and we were going to give him one turn–the rider said he wanted to give him another, so he went twice on the [training] track and got used to the pony and made a friend there. Today, we took him to the main track. It was a little wet, so we just went one time around and we kind of made him go at our pace. He didn't care for that. His ears were back and he was wanting to go. So, tomorrow he'll get a chance to go out and train like normal.”

Lagunes added, “He's happy. I think he likes this track. He was pretty fresh and was pulling a little, but he's more relaxed here than at Churchill Downs. There [at Churchill], there are a lot of horses and a lot of traffic and he gets a little stressed. But not here.”

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