Equibase | Horse Racing Free Tips

Total Wagering Dips Slightly In January; Purses Show Renewed Strength To Begin 2022

Equibase, North American racing's official database, released Friday its January statistics for the industry's economic indicators, including field size, wagering, and other data, along with 2019 and 2020 comparables. The 2019 data is included as a pre-COVID-19 comparison.

Equibase is continuing to provide monthly reporting of its Economic Indicators Advisories as a service to the industry and in consideration of the economic changes resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Advisory is typically disseminated on a quarterly basis to provide key metrics used to measure racing's performance throughout the year.

Total wagering on U.S. races saw a slight decline in January, dropping 1.82 percent from the first month of 2021 to the first month of 2022. With the 1.57 percent increase in race days, average wagering per race day also declined by 3.34 percent.

Compared to the first months of 2020 and 2019, however, total wagering was up 7.65 percent and 19.98 percent, respectively.

U.S. purses showed renewed strength to begin 2022, up by 15.48 percent compared to the same period last year, rising above $82 million. That figure is up by 13.85 percent since 2020, and by 4.71 percent since 2019.

Field size is down by 4.12 percent over last year, and by more than two percent compared to 2020 and 2019.

January 2022 vs. January 2021
Indicator	January 2022	January 2021	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$942,654,762	$960,160,298	-1.82%
U.S. Purses	$82,103,062	$71,098,677	+15.48%
U.S. Race Days	259	255	+1.57%
U.S. Races	2,186	2,211	-1.13%
U.S. Starts	16,949	17,879	-5.20%
Average Field Size	7.75	8.09	-4.12%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,639,594	$3,765,335	-3.34%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$317,000	$278,818	+13.69%

2020 Comparison:

January 2022 vs. January 2020
Indicator	January 2022	January 2020	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$942,654,762	$875,647,020	+7.65%
U.S. Purses	$82,103,062	$72,116,730	+13.85%
U.S. Race Days	259	283	-8.48%
U.S. Races	2,186	2,352	-7.06%
U.S. Starts	16,949	18,692	-9.32%
Average Field Size	7.75	7.95	-2.44%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,639,594	$3,094,159	+17.63%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$317,000	$254,829	+24.40%

2019 Comparison:

January 2022 vs. January 2019
Indicator	January 2022	January 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$942,654,762	$785,689,337	+19.98%
U.S. Purses	$82,103,062	$78,410,368	+4.71%
U.S. Race Days	259	265	-2.26%
U.S. Races	2,186	2,278	-4.04%
U.S. Starts	16,949	18,137	-6.55%
Average Field Size	7.75	7.96	-2.62%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,639,594	$2,964,865	+22.76%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$317,000	$295,888	+7.14%

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Equibase Analysis: Galt, Simplification Most Likely Upsetters In Holy Bull Field

This Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes is the first of three significant stakes races for newly turned 3-year-olds in South Florida. Nine have signed on for this race and the best of them will likely run four weeks from now in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, hoping to go on to the Florida Derby in April and then onto the Kentucky Derby.

Leading the field in accomplishments is Mo Donegal, last seen two months ago when victorious in the G2 Remsen Stakes. Simplification is another stakes winner, having captured the Mucho Macho Man Stakes easily by four lengths on New Year's Day. Tiz the Bomb finished fast from 12th to get second when last seen in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and won his only previous dirt route by a whopping 14 lengths. Cajun's Magic returns from more than four months on the bench following a win in the FTBOA Florida Sire Dr. Fager Stakes then runner-up finishes in two other stakes races restricted to horses bred in Florida. Giant Game finished third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile on the same day Tiz the Bomb ran in the Juvenile Turf and appears to fit with these, as does G2 Kentucky Jockey Club third place finisher White Abarrio. Then there's a pair of recent impressive maiden winners in Spin Wheel and Galt, the former having rallied from last of 12 to win by a nose and the latter having drawn off easily by four lengths when last seen. Eloquist rounds out the field. He finished a well-beaten fifth in the Remsen and then last of six in an allowance race last month at Gulfstream Park.

Main Win Contenders:

Although Galt just earned his first win in his most recent start, the third of his career, he will be my top pick, and a strong one at that, in this year's Holy Bull Stakes. There are many reasons to think this son of Medaglia d'Oro can win, the first of which is that he is trained by Bill Mott, who has an uncanny ability to know when his recently turned 3-year-olds are the right caliber to compete in Road to the Derby stakes races. When taking blinkers off and running in a dirt route for the first time on Dec. 26, Galt ran tremendously better than he had in his two prior starts. Drawing the same rail position he gets for the Holy Bull, Galt saved ground then came around a pair of runners to rally into a very slow pace in the stretch before drawing off decisively.

Admittedly, the 84 Equibase® Speed Figure isn't nearly as fast as the 93 figure likely favorite Mo Donegal earned last December winning the Remsen Stakes, but it was a big improvement off his previous two races. As he's making his second start following 2 1/2 months off, Galt is going to move up considerably off the effort. Back to Mott's record 3-year-olds early in the year coming off maiden wins and running in stakes races, the Hall-of-Fame trainer saddled Tacitus to win the 2019 Tampa Bay Derby off a maiden win, saddled Modernist to win the 2020 Risen Star Stakes off a maiden win, saddled Candy Man Rocket to win the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes off a maiden win, and saddled Hofburg to a runner-up finish in the 2018 Florida Derby.

Another reason I expect Galt to run very well in a graded stakes race is he is a full brother to two-time Champion Songbird, winner of $4.6 million and nine consecutive graded stakes around two turns in her three year old campaign. As the reason for the big turnaround in form on Dec. 26 is easily identifiable (blinkers off) and as he won without Lasix so racing without the medication is not an issue here, I expect Galt to post the mild upset and throw his name in the ring as a strong contender on the Road to the Derby, staring in the Holy Bull Stakes.

However, in order to win, Galt is going to have to run down Simplification, who enters the race off a wire-to-wire win in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Year's Day with a field high 98 figure. Two races before that, Simplification won a six furlong sprint by a whopping 16 and three-quarter lengths with a 99 figure. Javier Castellano rode the colt to his last win and will be in the saddle again in the Holy Bull. I have no concern about the fact that Simplification is trying two-turns for the first time as (per Race Lens) relatively new sire Not This Time has had six of 18 of his sons or daughters win two-turn races to date, including recent Lecomte Stakes runner-up Epicenter, who had won the Gun Runner Stakes prior to that. As such, Simplification has a big chance to get out on an easy lead and get very brave just as he did last month in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, and no matter how successful Galt might be in closing into a slow pace as he was in his victory at the end of December, it may be too tall of an order in this situation.

Although most of the others have credentials to be competitive, with the exception of Eloquist, who is overmatched, they are all giving away some physical edge to Galt and Simplification. For example, Mo Donegal has been away from the races since Dec. 4, and a Race Lens query reveals trainer Todd Pletcher possesses a four for 30 record with 3-year-olds in dirt route stakes over the last five years coming back from such a layoff. The same can be said for Tiz the Bomb, who needed a sprint prep race last spring before winning a route.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Cajun's Magic (94), Giant Game (90), Eloquist (74), Mo Donegal (93), Spin Wheel (86), Tiz the Bomb (109 on turf) and White Abarrio (94).

Win Contenders, with an equal probability to win at about 33 percent (2 to 1)
Galt
Simplification

Holy Bull Stakes – Grade 3
Race 11 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, February 5 – Post Time 5:10 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
Three Year Olds
Purse: $250,000

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Equibase Analysis: Thomas Shelby Could Get Perfect Trip In Oaklawn’s Fifth Season

Nine horses are entered in Saturday's $150,000 Fifth Season Stakes at Oaklawn Park, including the 2019 and 2021 winners of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, Long Range Toddy and Concert Tour, respectively. Long Range Toddy is winless in 16 races since then while Concert Tour, last seen finishing ninth of 10 in the G1 Preakness Stakes, returns from an eight month layoff and a change to the barn of Brad Cox.

Snapper Sinclair leads the field in career earnings at $1.8 million. He has run poorly in his last two races but one was his first ever try on an all-weather surface and the other was in the G1 Breeders' Cup Mile. Two races prior to that Snapper Sinclair won the TVG Stakes on the grass at Kentucky Downs. Rated R Superstar, who returns from four months off, is another who has had a fine career to date, earning $1.1 million, with his most recent win coming in the Governor's Cup Stakes in August.

Mucho enters the Fifth Season Stakes in superb form with six straight in-the-money finishes including a win in the Challedon Stakes last summer. However, Mucho is running in a two-turn race for the very first time after 29 races around one turn. Necker Island is another horse stretching out to two turns. He won the Bet On Sunshine Stakes in November as one of five wins in his career.

Thomas Shelby really likes to win races, with 10 victories in 24 career races. His most recent effort was a second place finish in the Tinsel Stakes at Oaklawn last month. Silver Prospector is approaching the $1 million mark in career earnings. After winning the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in the winter of 2020, he has won just one of eight races. Atoka rounds out the field, entering the race off a runner-up effort in an allowance race over the track from which he was moved up to first after the winner was disqualified.

Top Contenders

Thomas Shelby draws the rail for this mile trip and that means jockey David Cohen will have the ability to put him on the lead, which has resulted in three wins in his last four starts, or settle him just off the pace, which has resulted in another three wins before that. Thomas Shelby joined the barn of trainer Robertino Diodoro in November of 2020 and after finishing fourth, third and seventh in his initial three starts for the barn, has turned into an “alpha” horse, winning seven of 10. Last October Thomas Shelby ran the best race of his career winning a classified allowance race with a personal-best 112 ™ Equibase Speed Figure. He won again in November, then after two months off led until deep stretch before coming up three-quarters of a length short in the Tinsel Stakes. That race was at Oaklawn and was run at a mile and one-eighth, with Thomas Shelby leading at the point this mile race ends so repeating that effort could be good enough to win the Fifth Season Stakes.

Silver Prospector has four career wins, one of which came at Oaklawn. That was when victorious in the 2020 Southwest Stakes with a then career-best 107 ™ figure. After a poor sixth place effort in the Rebel Stakes followed by a poorer seventh place finish in the Arkansas Derby, Silver Prospector was given nearly six months off. Returning in the fall off a lengthy layoff, Silver Prospector raced in top form to win and earned a very strong 106 figure considering the time off. Although winless in five races since, Silver Prospector ran just as well as he had in the comeback when second in the Razorback Stakes last February at Oaklawn, earning a 108 figure. Now rested since last May the same way he was in the spring of 2020 until his strong win in the fall of that year, Silver Prospector has put in a pair of very strong workouts which were the best of 52 and the fourth best of 44 on the day. These signal he could be as fit and ready to run just like he did off a similar layoff, and if he does that he could certainly compete for top honors in this race.

Concert Tour is another returning off a layoff since last May, and he too is working in the morning like he will not need a race before showing his best. Concert Tour won the first three races of his career last year, including the San Vicente Stakes and the Rebel, in which he earned a career-best 104 figure drawing off easily to win by four and one-quarter lengths in geared down fashion. After a third place finish in the Arkansas Derby¸ Concert Tour skipped the Kentucky Derby then showed up in the Preakness, running the worst race of his career when ninth of 10 and beaten more than 30 lengths. Returning to training last October, Concert Tour has been placed in the care of trainer Brad Cox, who has an exceptional record of nine wins from 25 starts with horses coming back from six months off or more in dirt routes. As such, Concert Tour appears to fit with the best of the contenders in this year's Fifth Season.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Atoka (100), Long Range Toddy (102), Mucho (108 in sprint races), Necker Island (108 in sprint races), Rated R Superstar (105) and Snapper Sinclair (115 on turf).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Thomas Shelby
Silver Prospector
Concert Tour

Fifth Season Stakes
Race 8 at Oaklawn
Saturday, January 15, 2022 – Post Time 4:46 PM E.T.
One Mile
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $150,000

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Economic Indicators: U.S. Wagering Tops $12 Billion In 2021 For Highest Total Handle Since 2009

Equibase, North American racing's official database, on Wednesday released its 2021 statistics for the industry's economic indicators, including field size, wagering, and other data, along with 2019 and 2020 comparables. The 2019 data is included as a pre-COVID-19 comparison.

Total handle on U.S. races in 2021 topped $12 billion, reaching the highest figure since 2009. That number represents an 11.86 percent increase over wagering in 2020 ($10.9B), and an increase of 10.74 percent compared to 2019 ($11B).

By comparison, the 2009 wagering total of $12.3 billion came from a total of 49,368 races. The 2021 wagering totals were from 33,567 races, a 32 percent decline in the number of races.

“Against an extraordinarily difficult backdrop, the resiliency of Thoroughbred racing was on full display in 2021 as we concluded the year with significant growth in purses and total handle of more than $12 billion, the highest since 2009,” said Tom Rooney, president and chief executive officer of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association. “We thank our customers for their ongoing support as their wagering dollars continue to fuel our industry. As we turn the page to 2022, we look forward to the beginning of a new era for U.S. Thoroughbred racing with the launch of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act (HISA) and an even greater focus on equine safety and welfare and the integrity of America's oldest sport.”

Race days and starts both increased over 2020, which is expected after the pandemic shut down much of the U.S.'s live racing last year, but average field size showed a decline of 7.2 percent from 2020 to 2021. Over the same period, despite an increase of 10 percent in average purses per race day, average wagering per race day showed a 9.29 percent decline.

As compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019, however, average wagering per race day showed an over 20 percent increase in 2021 as the number of race days fell by 7.98 percent. That's despite the average field size dropping from 7.53 in 2019 to 7.37 in 2021.

Total purses showed the largest percentage increase from 2020 to 2021, up 35.77 percent and 10.09 percent per race day.

Overall, the numbers suggest the horse racing industry is recovering from the pandemic, but also that it is struggling to retain field size as foal crops have declined in numbers.

YTD 2021 vs. YTD 2020
Indicator	YTD 2021	YTD 2020	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$12,218,407,637	$10,922,936,290	+11.86%
U.S. Purses	$1,180,853,677	$869,771,206	+35.77%
U.S. Race Days	4,072	3,302	+23.32%
U.S. Races	33,567	27,700	+21.18%
U.S. Starts	247,416	220,006	+12.46%
Average Field Size	7.37	7.94	-7.20%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,000,591	$3,307,976	-9.29%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$289,994	$263,407	+10.09%

1st Half 2021 vs. 1st Half 2020
Indicator	1st Half 2021	1st Half 2020	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$6,279,039,094	$5,054,526,907	+24.23%
U.S. Purses	$515,151,692	$324,168,648	+58.91%
U.S. Race Days	1,881	1,301	+44.58%
U.S. Races	15,792	10,906	+44.80%
U.S. Starts	117,303	88,074	+33.19%
Average Field Size	7.43	8.08	-8.02%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,338,139	$3,885,109	-14.08%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$273,871	$249,169	+9.91%

2nd Half 2021 vs. 2nd Half 2020
Indicator	2nd Half 2021	2nd Half 2020	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$5,939,368,543	$5,868,409,383	+1.21%
U.S. Purses	$665,701,985	$545,602,558	+22.01%
U.S. Race Days	2,191	2,001	+9.50%
U.S. Races	17,775	16,794	+5.84%
U.S. Starts	130,113	131,932	-1.38%
Average Field Size	7.32	7.86	-6.82%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$2,710,803	$2,932,738	-7.57%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$303,835	$272,665	+11.43%

4th QTR 2021 vs. 4th QTR 2020
Indicator	4th QTR 2021	4th QTR 2020	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$2,720,738,901	$2,576,392,869	+5.60%
U.S. Purses	$300,299,698	$240,534,957	+24.85%
U.S. Race Days	870	793	+9.71%
U.S. Races	7,339	6,805	+7.85%
U.S. Starts	56,789	55,530	+2.27%
Average Field Size	7.74	8.16	-5.17%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,127,286	$3,248,919	-3.74%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$345,172	$303,323	+13.80%

December 2021 vs. December 2020
Indicator	December 2021	December 2020	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$808,907,627	$751,783,126	+7.60%
U.S. Purses	$74,777,035	$57,534,410	+29.97%
U.S. Race Days	251	229	+9.61%
U.S. Races	2,151	2,008	+7.12%
U.S. Starts	17,257	16,884	+2.21%
Average Field Size	8.02	8.41	-4.59%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,222,740	$3,282,896	-1.83%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$297,916	$251,242	+18.58%

2019 Comparisons:

YTD 2021 vs. YTD 2019
Indicator	YTD 2021	YTD 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$12,218,407,637	$11,033,824,363	+10.74%
U.S. Purses	$1,180,853,677	$1,167,920,667	+1.11%
U.S. Race Days	4,072	4,425	-7.98%
U.S. Races	33,567	36,207	-7.29%
U.S. Starts	247,416	272,553	-9.22%
Average Field Size	7.37	7.53	-2.08%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,000,591	$2,493,520	+20.34%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$289,994	$263,937	+9.87%

1st Half 2021 vs. 1st Half 2019
Indicator	1st Half 2021	1st Half 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$6,279,039,094	$5,672,774,271	+10.69%
U.S. Purses	$515,151,692	$544,002,132	-5.30%
U.S. Race Days	1,881	2,104	-10.60%
U.S. Races	15,792	17,457	-9.54%
U.S. Starts	117,303	130,239	-9.93%
Average Field Size	7.43	7.46	-0.44%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,338,139	$2,696,185	+23.81%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$273,871	$258,556	+5.92%

2nd Half 2021 vs. 2nd Half 2019
Indicator	2nd Half 2021	2nd Half 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$5,939,368,543	$5,361,050,092	+10.79%
U.S. Purses	$665,701,985	$623,918,535	+6.70%
U.S. Race Days	2,191	2,321	-5.60%
U.S. Races	17,775	18,750	-5.20%
U.S. Starts	130,113	142,314	-8.57%
Average Field Size	7.32	7.59	-3.56%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$2,710,803	$2,309,802	+17.36%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$303,835	$268,815	+13.03%

4th QTR 2021 vs. 4th QTR 2019
Indicator	4th QTR 2021	4th QTR 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$2,720,738,901	$2,439,642,344	+11.52%
U.S. Purses	$300,299,698	$274,053,649	+9.58%
U.S. Race Days	870	910	-4.40%
U.S. Races	7,339	7,653	-4.10%
U.S. Starts	56,789	61,576	-7.77%
Average Field Size	7.74	8.05	-3.83%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,127,286	$2,680,926	+16.65%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$345,172	$301,158	+14.61%

December 2021 vs. December 2019
Indicator	December 2021	December 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$808,907,627	$707,728,171	+14.30%
U.S. Purses	$74,777,035	$66,315,581	+12.76%
U.S. Race Days	251	252	-0.40%
U.S. Races	2,151	2,169	-0.83%
U.S. Starts	17,257	17,561	-1.73%
Average Field Size	8.02	8.10	-0.91%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,222,740	$2,808,445	+14.75%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$297,916	$263,157	+13.21%

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