Equibase | Horse Racing Free Tips

After Gmax Tweaks, Del Mar Expects ‘No Problems With Turf Timing’

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club (DMTC) president Josh Rubinstein told the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) Sept. 24 that he expects the track will no longer have to rely on hand-timing turf races at its upcoming fall meet because its inaccurate Equibase Gmax GPS timing system has since been tweaked to fix problems that produced numerous wrong clockings throughout the summer season.

TDN reported back on Aug. 18 that some dirt and turf final times at Del Mar were mis-clocked anywhere between .07 seconds and 1.19 seconds by the industry’s official data-keeper during an August portion of the meet. Those times—initially derived from global positioning metrics—were retroactively hand-clocked, adjusted, and reposted as official without any public disclosure of the corrections.

In an Aug. 20 statement, Equibase acknowledged “inconsistencies” in its Del Mar turf clockings, but said its dirt timings were “highly accurate.”

At that time, Equibase also stated that its Del Mar chart callers would utilize hand-clockings for turf races for the remainder of the meet, which wrapped up Sept. 7.

The Gmax system had just been installed prior to the July-September season. It’s used at 11 other North America racetracks.

“On the turf, when rail positions were moved, there were some challenges,” Rubinstein said Thursday in response to a direct question about the accuracy of the Gmax system from CHRB vice chair Oscar Gonzales.

“So when we discovered the issue we hand-timed our turf races for the final week and a half [of the meet],” Rubinstein continued. “And [since] the conclusion of the summer meet, over the last two weeks, our turf course is being re-surveyed digitally. And that [data] will be installed into the new Gmax GPS system.

“We expect no problems with turf timing through the GPS system this fall,” Rubinstein emphasized.

“The main track was terrific,” Rubinstein added. “All of the [dirt] GPS times checked out with our backup hand-timed system.”

Gmax debuted in North America 2018. But problems date to at least 2019, when early-adopter Laurel Park discontinued its usage of the system for a period because of inaccuracies, according to an article earlier this month in The Racing Biz.

CHRB commissioners did not press DMTC officials any further on the issue on Thursday after Rubinstein’s assertion that the upcoming meet would be timed problem-free.

The Del Mar fall meet will span 15 race dates from Oct. 31-Nov. 29.

Tom Robbins, DMTC’s executive vice president for racing and industry relations, said stabling will open Oct. 25, with the main track open for training the next morning.

“Unlike the summer meet, where we usually stable around 1,900 horses, the fall meet is largely a ship-in meet with about 350 to 400 horses stabled on-site,” Robbins said.

Last week DMTC announced a 10% overnight purse hike compared to the same autumn meet last season. The reason cited was increased handle revenue.

Robbins also noted that “because of better-than expected business from the summer meet, four stakes races that appear in our license application at reduced levels [the GI Hollywood Debry, GI Matriarch S., GII Seabiscuit H., and GII Hollywood Turf Cup] have been restored to their previous levels.”

With regard to the purse hike, DMTC racing secretary David Jerkens said that “in today’s climate, with many tracks that are cutting back across the country, this is an accomplishment.”

Alan Balch, executive director of the California Thoroughbred Trainers, asked the CHRB to extend the previous race-meet agreement for Del Mar even though one isn’t currently in place, as is required for the track’s licensure.

“We’ve made ourselves available for further conversations and negotiations so we can try to get this resolved,” Balch said of the necessary contract. “But I would want to take this opportunity [to] express the trainers’ appreciation for [track management’s] continued efforts to improve the conditions at Del Mar.

Balch, in particular, lauded Del Mar’s “Ship and Win” bonus program.

“They’ve constantly monitored the objective data, and I just want to emphasize the point [that this bonus program] benefits all of California racing, and it’s critically important [to bringing] more horses to California.”

The CHRB unanimously voted to give Del Mar the go-ahead for its fall meet.

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Equibase Analysis: Notable Exception Could Post The Upset In American Pharoah Stakes

The Grade 1, $300,000 American Pharoah Stakes is a “Win and You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile the first full weekend in November at Keeneland Race Course. Of the eight entrants, only one (Waspirant) has won a route race of a mile or more, doing so last month to break his maiden in his second career start, and only one (Weston) has won a stakes race, having proven victorious in the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes at seven furlongs in August. However, the other six all have the potential to take that leap forward and run well enough to win, such as Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity runner-up Spielberg, who is still a maiden as he finished second in his only other race to date.

Get Her Number led from the start in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes just 19 days ago and settled for fourth at the end but was beaten just a pair of noses for the runner-up spot. Dyn O Mite was much further back in fifth in the Del Mar Futurity while Rombauer was sixth in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf and both hope to be more competitive. Notable Exception is a truly unknown quantity as he is the only horse not to have run locally as he broke his maiden in his debut 22 days ago at Arlington Park in Illinois. Touchdown Brown rounds out the field and enters the race off a half-length defeat in the I'm Smokin Stakes (restricted to California bred horses) around one turn three weeks ago.

In spite of only having run once and not having run around two turns, Notable Exception is my top choice to win this year's American Pharoah Stakes. In his debut on September 4, Noble Exception demonstrated a lot of physical and mental quality as he battled for the lead from the start then relinquished it briefly before a half-mile had been run. Reasserting himself on the turn, Notable Exception drew off to a three length lead with an eighth of a mile to go before extending the lead to five and one-quarter lengths at the end. Since that time, Notable Exception returned to trainer Jack Sisterson's base at Keeneland and put in a strong :59.8 five furlong workout to signal he's getting stronger every day as a two year old should be at this time of year. The 64 Equibase Speed Figure was unremarkable compared to some of the others in this race, but 2-year-olds have been known to improve markedly from one race to the next and that is what I am expecting of this colt. Most of all, Notable Exception has a pedigree which tells me he will run very well in this mile and one-sixteenth race. Using STATS Race Lens to look at what other foals of sire Street Sense have done, I note that thirteen sons and daughters of the sire have run in stakes races for two year olds, with four individual horses having emerged victorious. Perhaps as telling is the fact that Notable Exception has a half-brother (same dam) who won three of his first four races in 2017 and 2018 including the Shared Belief Stakes. As Notable Exception was particularly impressive winning his only race and with no doubts about his ability to stretch out to this distance and run well, I think he can win this race.

Waspirant finished fourth in his debut, in a sprint, at 30 to 1 odds on August 8 then returned just 21 days later at a mile and was an entirely different horse. In that second career start, Waspirant stalked the pacesetter by a half-length through the opening half-mile, was second with an eighth of a mile to go then got up late to win by three-quarters of a length. That was a pretty professional effort for a horse making only the second start of his career. Improving to an 81 figure, Waspirant now adds blinkers, likely as a result of a suggestion by jockey Umberto Rispoli, who missed winning the riding title at the recently concluded Del Mar meeting by one win (behind Flavien Prat). The blinkers should help Waspirant keep down distractions and so he should improve. That improvement, coupled with the fact he is the only horse in the field with a win around two-turns on dirt, Waspirant should be a strong contender down to the wire in the American Pharoah Stakes.

Touchdown Brown won impressively in his debut in June, at four and one-half furlongs, earning a phenomenal 96 figure which was stakes quality. Entering the Graduation Stakes for his next start, Touchdown Brown finished last of seven while never threatening as the six to five betting favorite. Blinkers were added for his following race on September 4 in the I'm Smokin Stakes and the colt responded with a very game effort when beaten only a half-length, rebounding to a 95 figure while four lengths clear of the next horse. Interestingly enough, blinkers come off for the American Pharoah but that's likely a method to curtail the colt's early speed and get him to relax as he may have other company near the front. Still, Touchdown Brown may not be a need-the-lead type as he rallied from third in his debut win without blinkers. As a son of Cairo Prince, there's little doubt Touchdown Brown will run even better at this longer distance as per STATS Race Lens the sire has produced five dirt route stakes winners from 13 individual horses which have competed at this level. With the ground saving rail and a potential pace battle on the front end, Touchdown Brown could be rallying strongly to win.

Spielberg and Get Her Number are notable for a couple of reasons but I feel they don't have the same probability to win compared to Notable Exception, Waspirant or Touchdown Brown. Both fit as proven competitive in stakes but both wear blinkers and appear to have the same need-the-lead style which means they could run faster than average in the early stages and be vulnerable to being passed late. Spielberg finished second in his debut with an 85 figure then second again in the Del Mar Futurity. In both races he was beaten by Dr. Schivel, whose connections recently announced is getting the rest of the year off to prepare for the Road to the Kentucky Derby in 2021. Get Her Number won his debut at five furlongs on turf in August with an 86 figure then stretched out to a mile, also on grass, in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes three weeks ago. In that race Get Her Number led easily in the early stages then had to fight head-and-head starting with a quarter mile to go, eventually settling for fourth but beaten by a pair of noses for the runner-up spot. Also worth mentioning is Weston, who won at four and one-half furlongs in his debut in June with a 93 figure, but then in spite of winning the Best Pal Stakes at six furlongs regressed to an 84 figure then again to 77 when third and nearly four lengths behind runner-up Spielberg in the Del Mar Futurity earlier this month.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Dyn O Mite (84) and Rombauer (85).

Win Contenders:
Notable Exception
Waspirant
Touchdown Brown

American Pharoah Stakes – Grade 1
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, September 26 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Two Year Olds
Purse: $300,000

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NYRA Partners With Churchill Downs For Saturday Cross Country Pick 5

The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) will partner with Churchill Downs for Saturday's Cross Country Pick 5, a unique offering highlighted by three graded stakes.

Live coverage will be available with America's Day at the Races on FOX Sports and MSG Networks. Free Equibase past performances for the Cross Country Pick 5 sequence are now available for download at https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/cross-country-wagers.

The sequence begins at beautiful Belmont Park in Race 7 at 4:08 p.m. Eastern with a six-furlong allowance optional-claiming sprint. The 10-horse field includes Liam's Pride, winner of the Gold Fever on a sloppy Belmont strip in July; popular 11-time winner T Loves a Fight; and the talented Hidden Scroll returning to the main track following off-the-board efforts on turf for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.

Action then shifts to historic Churchill Downs for the second leg [Race 8, 4:21 p.m. Eastern] where a field of 10 allowance optional-claiming fillies and mares will travel a one-turn mile on the main track. Joy Epifora, a Group 1 winner in her native Argentina, returns to the main track for trainer Ignacio Correas, IV to face a talented group that includes multiple graded-stakes placed Gold Standard for trainer Brad Cox; and half-million earner Talk Veuve to Me, a graded stakes winner trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen.

A trio of graded stakes to complete the wager begins in Race 8 at Belmont Park at 4:42 p.m. Eastern with the Grade 3 Noble Damsel, a one-mile turf event for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward. Four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown sends out the talented troika of Viadera, Blowout and Noor Sahara to square off against the improving Feel Glorious, who searches for her first graded stakes win for conditioner Christophe Clement.

The penultimate leg from Churchill Downs [Race 9, 4:53 p.m.], the Grade 3, $100,000 Ack Ack, will see a field of 13 traverse a one-turn mile on the main track. Leading the charge is $1.3 million earner Mr. Money, a 4-year-old son of Goldencents trained by Bret Calhoun sporting a record of three wins from five starts at the Louisville oval. Steep opposition will be provided by Calumet Farm's Everfast, runner-up in last year's Grade 1 Preakness; and Grade 3 Razorback champ Warrior's Charge, a five-time winner for trainer Brad Cox who was elevated to first last out in the Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin at Monmouth Park.

The sequence concludes at Belmont Park in Race 9 at 5:14 p.m. with the Grade 2, $150,000 Vosburgh, a six-furlong sprint led by six-time graded-stakes winning millionaire Firenze Fire for trainer Kelly Breen. Opposition in the six-horse field is led by the John Terranova-trained pair of Funny Guy and Stan the Man.

The minimum bet for the multi-track, multi-race wager is 50 cents. Wagering on the Cross Country Pick 5 is also available on ADW platforms and at simulcast facilities across the country. Every week will feature a mandatory payout of the net pool.

The Cross Country Pick 5 will continue each Saturday throughout the year. For more information, visit NYRABets.com.

Cross Country Pick 5 – Saturday, September 26:
Leg A: Belmont-Race 7 (4:08 pm)
Leg B: Churchill-Race 8 (4:21 pm)
Leg C: Belmont-Race 8 – Grade 3 Noble Damsel (4:42 pm)
Leg D: Churchill-Race 9 – Grade 3 Ack Ack (4:53 pm)
Leg E: Belmont-Race 9 – Grade 2 Vosburgh (5:14 pm)

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Equibase Analysis: War Of Will, March To The Arch Stand Out In Woodbine Mile

The Grade 1, $1 million Ricoh Woodbine Mile is always a highly anticipated fixture as the northern hemisphere transitions from summer to fall and this year's edition is no exception. A “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Mile, this year's edition drew a strong field of eight, led by a pair of standouts from the barn of Mark Casse in War of Will and March to the Arch. War of Will is one of those, perhaps best remembered for winning the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes in 2019. However, the talented colt who leads the field in career earnings at $1.7 million, ran on turf in the first four races of his career and enters the race off a win on grass in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile in July. March to the Arch proved he belonged in top company on grass when winning the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes in June, 2019 and renewed that form last month when victorious in the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes at Woodbine.

Admiralty Pier finished second in the King Edward and certainly fits in this field as a contender, as does recent Grade 3 Vigil Stakes runner-up Olympic Runner. Armistice Day won the Toronto Cup Stakes in 2019, the same race March to the Arch won the previous year, and makes his third start off a layoff so he may have a say in the outcome as well. Value Proposition (GB) has just five races under his belt but his third place effort in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes this summer suggests he has enough talent to be a factor. Even more lightly raced is Shirl's Speight, who has run two races to date. However, this three year old who was considered for the Kentucky Derby earlier this month is a perfect two-for-two in his career and has potential to surprise a few people with another top effort.

Last, but certainly not least, is the mare Starship Jubilee, who is second in career earnings at $1.6 million. Starship Jubilee has won 18 races in her career including six on the Woodbine turf. She enters the race off a fourth place effort in the Grade 1 Diana Stakes at Saratoga and won the Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes prior to that and a repeat of that effort, or when winning the Grade 1 E. P. Taylor Stakes last October at Woodbine, gives her a more than decent shot at being in the thick of the action at the finish in this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

War of Will may be best known for winning the Preakness Stakes in 2019 but when considering his chances to win this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile on turf one need look no further than his races before getting on the Road to the Derby last year, and his most recent starts. Being by a tremendous turf sire in War Front, War of Will began his career on turf in the fall of 2018, finishing third before entering the Summer Stakes still as a maiden in only the second start of his career. Nearly pulling off the upset at 10/1 in that race when leading late before settling for second, War of Will then nearly won the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland when fourth in a blanket finish on the wire. After a fifth place finish in the 2018 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and after breaking his maiden on dirt, War of Will set his sights on the Kentucky Derby, winning the Lecomte Stakes and Risen Star Stakes before poorer efforts in the Louisiana Derby and an eighth place finish in the Kentucky Derby. After rebounding to win the Preakness, War of Will finished third or worse in five races on dirt before returning to the turf. The first of those efforts came in the Shoemaker Mile in May in which he raced close up early before tiring to fifth in a ten horse field. A little of six weeks later, War of Will arguably ran his best race ever, gamely rallying in the stretch to win the Maker's Mark Mile by a nose and earning a 115 Equibase Speed Figure, the best winning figure of his career. The reason for that effort appears to be the removal of blinkers for that race so there is every reason to believe the effort, and its winning result, are repeatable, making War of Will the one to beat in this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

March to the Arch is also a strong contender to win the Ricoh Woodbine Mile. On six occasions in 21 career turf races, March to the Arch has come out on top. The best of those came last year came when he won the Wise Dan Stakes with a strong 104  figure. However, as a five year old March to the Arch has run even better. In his second start of 2020, March to the Arch fought gamely and lost by a nose and a head in the Tampa Bay Stakes with a career-best 115 figure. Following a poor 10th place effort in this year's Shoemaker Mile, March to the Arch was only beaten two lengths although sixth when defending his title in the Wise Dan before returning to Woodbine last month, where he won the Toronto Cup Stakes in 2018. Prepping for the Ricoh Woodbine Mile last month in the King Edward Stakes, March to the Arch was quite impressive in rallying from last in the field of eight to assert himself late and win by two and one-quarter lengths. The 112 figure was the second best last race figure in the field, bettered only by that of War of Will, who is also trained by Mark Casse. Getting the ground saving rail for this race, March to the Arch appears to be the biggest challenge to War of Will and has every right to win his second straight graded stakes in a row at the distance of one mile on turf.

Admiralty Pier led from the start in the King Edward and although beaten by two and one-quarter lengths at the end by March to the Arch ran one of the best races of his career. Earning a 109 figure for in the King Edward, Admiralty Pier is likely to be the controlling speed in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile. He won the Tampa Bay Derby with a career-best 115 figure in February, defeating March to the Arch in the process, and he's on a pattern to get back to that type of effort as he earned a 103 figure when second in the Connaught Cup in July before a 109 figure in the King Edward. As such, we should not rule out the possibility Admiralty Pier could post the upset in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Armistice Day (103), Olympic Runner (99), Shirl's Speight (97) Starship Jubilee (119 in 2018) and Value Proposition (GB) (99).

Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
War of Will
March to the Arch
Admiralty Pier

Ricoh Woodbine Mile – Grade 1
Race 9 at Woodbine
Saturday, September 19 – Post Time 5:59 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

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