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Economic Indicators: Average Wagering Per Race Day Increased In 2020 Despite Pandemic Challenges

Equibase, LLC released its year-end report on Economic Indicators in Thoroughbred Racing on Tuesday, Jan. 5. Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, Equibase has been providing monthly economic indicators advisories, but this one is for the entire year.

Equibase has provided comparisons between 2019 and 2020 as a whole as well as comparisons between certain portions of 2019 and 2020. The average wagering per race day went up by 32.69% in 2020, which could be linked to more people participating in online wagering. As expected, there was on overall decline in U.S. races, race days, and starts due to a number of tracks having to shut down throughout the year due to COVID-19 safety measures.

Alex Waldrop, President and CEO, National Thoroughbred Racing Association released the following statement:

“The horse racing community is extremely resilient as borne out by the fact that despite the widespread and negative impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, pari-mutuel wagering on U.S. races held steady in 2020 at nearly $11 billion. We thank both our customers and all of our essential participants on the backside and beyond for keeping the sport going and supporting the industry during what continues to be an unprecedented and challenging period, not only in the United States but around the world.”

YTD 2020 vs. YTD 2019
Indicator	YTD 2020	YTD 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$10,925,226,444	$11,033,824,363	-0.98%
U.S. Purses	$869,774,080	$1,167,920,667	-25.53%
U.S. Race Days	3,302	4,425	-25.38%
U.S. Races	27,700	36,207	-23.50%
U.S. Starts	220,006	272,553	-19.28%
Average Field Size	7.94	7.53	+5.51%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,308,669	$2,493,520	+32.69%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$263,408	$263,937	-0.20%

1st Half 2020 vs. 1st Half 2019
Indicator	1st Half 2020	1st Half 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$5,055,522,519	$5,672,774,271	-10.88%
U.S. Purses	$324,168,648	$544,002,132	-40.41%
U.S. Race Days	1,301	2,104	-38.17%
U.S. Races	10,906	17,457	-37.53%
U.S. Starts	88,074	130,239	-32.38%
Average Field Size	8.08	7.46	+8.25%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,885,874	$2,696,185	+44.12%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$249,169	$258,556	-3.63%

2nd Half 2020 vs. 2nd Half 2019
Indicator	2nd Half 2020	2nd Half 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$5,869,703,925	$5,361,050,092	+9.49%
U.S. Purses	$545,605,432	$623,918,535	-12.55%
U.S. Race Days	2,001	2,321	-13.79%
U.S. Races	16,794	18,750	-10.43%
U.S. Starts	131,932	142,314	-7.30%
Average Field Size	7.86	7.59	+3.50%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$2,933,385	$2,309,802	+27.00%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$272,666	$268,815	+1.43%

4th QTR 2020 vs. 4th QTR 2019
Indicator	4th QTR 2020	4th QTR 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$2,576,411,336	$2,439,642,344	+5.61%
U.S. Purses	$240,537,331	$274,053,649	-12.23%
U.S. Race Days	793	910	-12.86%
U.S. Races	6,805	7,653	-11.08%
U.S. Starts	55,530	61,576	-9.82%
Average Field Size	8.16	8.05	+1.42%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,248,942	$2,680,926	+21.19%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$303,326	$301,158	+0.72%

December 2020 vs. December 2019
Indicator	December 2020	December 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$751,865,995	$707,728,171	+6.24%
U.S. Purses	$57,535,084	$66,315,581	-13.24%
U.S. Race Days	229	252	-9.13%
U.S. Races	2,008	2,169	-7.42%
U.S. Starts	16,884	17,561	-3.86%
Average Field Size	8.41	8.10	+3.85%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,283,258	$2,808,445	+16.91%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$251,245	$263,157	-4.53%

* Includes worldwide commingled wagering on U.S. races.

Charts Courtesy Equibase

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Equibase Analysis: Parnelli Poised For Upset In Sham Stakes

Five horses will line up for Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park, one of the first Road to the Derby points races of the New Year. Bob Baffert, who won the race last year with Authentic, saddles a pair in Life is Good and Medina Spirit, both of which are making their second career starts and won their debut efforts convincingly. Similarly, trainer John Shirreffs saddles last out maiden winner Parnelli and G1 American Pharoah Stakes fourth place finisher Waspirant, who broke his maiden prior to that. Uncle Boogie rounds out the field, coming into the race off a second place finish in the G3 Bob Hope Stakes.

With only five entered, this kind or race will be one in which tactics are everything. Additionally, with three of the five (Life is Good, Medina Spirit and Uncle Boogie) stretching out in distance and trying two turns for the first time, the pace could be faster than average. Life is Good earned the best Equibase Speed Figure in the field, 106, winning his one and only race by nine lengths leading from start to finish. However, he ran the first six furlongs in :44.8 which, if repeated in the Sham likely means he would be vulnerable to being passed late.

Parnelli led from the start and through the opening half-mile in his first two races at a mile, missing by a neck in the latter of the two races with a very strong 105 figure on par with Life is Good. Then in his most recent start, Parnelli relaxed in third in the early stages, about one and one-half lengths from the leader, before drawing off to win by nearly six lengths. Therefore it stands to reason Parnelli might be the one closest to Life is Good in the early stages and if indeed that colt goes too fast early, Parnelli is the one to pass Life is Good and win the Sham Stakes.

Medina Spirit earned a 99 figure winning his debut three weeks ago, at the distance of five and one-half furlongs. Although improvement can be expected off the experience of that debut, it may be a lot to ask to stretch out two and one-half furlongs (more than a quarter mile) and run as well compared to horses with experience at the distance like Parnelli or a horse like Life is Good who also can improve and who earned a figure seven points higher in his debut.

Uncle Boogie won his debut at five and one-half furlongs in October, as impressively as either Medina Spirit or Life is Good, but only earned a 79 figure. However, he improved to 84 in his second start (when the runner-up) then repeated that 84 figure effort when rallying from sixth to second in the Bob Hope Stakes in mid-November. Likely to be last of the five in the early stages, if the early pace is contested and much faster than average, Uncle Boogie could be passing them all for the upset win.

Waspirant rounds out the field, having won at this mile trip in August in his second career start with an 81 figure, then a non-threatening fourth in the American Pharoah Stakes at the end of September. It's a tough question to ask a horse to come back off three months in a route against horses who have shown to be faster and which have run much more recently.

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Parnelli
Life is Good

Sham Stakes – Grade 3
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, January 2, 2021 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
One Mile
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $100,000

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Equibase Analysis: Nashville Stands Out In Runhappy Malibu Stakes

The holiday present the racing world opens on the day after Christmas is always a fantastic afternoon of racing on opening day of the winter-spring meeting at Santa Anita. The bright shiny bow on that present is, as usual, the Grade 1, $300,000 Runhappy Malibu Stakes.

Six horses are entered and each is special in his own right, with five of the sextet stakes winners. In terms of the level of stakes won by some of the entrants, we have to start with the Bob Baffert trained Charlatan, who crossed the finish line first in the rescheduled G1 Arkansas Derby in May, only to be stripped of that victory thereafter for a medication violation. Bob Baffert, who has won the Malibu three times previously, also saddles Thousand Words, winner of the 2019 G2 Los Alamitos Futurity as well as the Shared Belief Stakes this past summer.

Collusion Illusion won the G1 Bing Crosby Stakes in August so among the three graded stakes winners he is the only one with a win in a sprint like the Malibu. Then there's Nashville, undefeated in three starts including the Perryville Stakes last month in the sizzling time of 1:07.8. Independence Hall is no slouch, having won the G3 Nashua Stakes in November 2019 and back in form off a win last month following seven months off. Express Train has been first or second in all four of his races at a mile or less, and although this will be his first try in a graded stakes around one turn he can't be ruled out as a contender.

In this handicapper's opinion, this year's Malibu Stakes is Nashville's to lose. His effort in the Perryville Stakes last month at Keeneland was scintillating, winning by 3 1/2 lengths when galloping the last few yards after having run his opponents off their feet. The track that day was fast but fair and the 115 Equibase Speed Figure bears that out. Having earned a 106 figure winning his debut in September at Saratoga, then 113 five weeks later, Nashville is lightly enough raced that we have likely not seen his best yet. Since the Perryville, Nashville has put in three sizzling workouts at trainer Steve Asmussen's winter base at Fair Grounds in Louisiana, consisting of three five furlongs workouts, the most recent in :58.8 which was the best of 20 on the day. With the trainer's number one jockey Ricardo Santana in the saddle for the Malibu as he was for the Perryville, and with no horse in the field faster in the first quarter mile, Nashville may be running against the record book in terms of time in this year's race.

Independence Hall is the only horse I could see beating Nashville, based on how the race is likely to be run, and based on the fact he's making his second start back after seven months off as well as coming off a career-best effort. Independence Hall won the first three races of his career starting back in September of 2019. His second and third career wins came in stakes, all around one turn including the Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct last November with a 107 figure. Next winning the Jerome Stakes and putting himself into the early Derby picture, Independence Hall finished second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, before a poor fifth place effort in the Florida Derby. Away from the races from the end of March until last month, Independence Hall changed trainers to Michael McCarthy and came back better than ever with a new career-best 108 figure effort at six and one-half furlongs. Likely pointing to this race with that prep, Independence Hall has put in two best of the day workouts since then, the most recent :59 flat for five furlongs which was the best of 83 at the distance on the day. He gets a good outside post in case the pace is hot and with logical improvement off his 108 last race figure could potentially post the upset.

Regarding Charlatan, who is likely to be either the betting favorite, or second betting favorite behind Nashville, there are some serious concerns in my opinion about his probability to win compared to others. First, he hasn't been seen since winning the Arkansas Derby nearly eight months ago and in spite of some excellent workouts, he doesn't stand out based on his best efforts. In the race prior to the Arkansas Derby at Santa Anita in March, Charlatan earned a 108 figure just on par with the figure Independence Hall earned last month and much lower than the 113 and 115 figures Nashville earned in his two most recent races, as well as shy of the 116 figure Collusion Illusion earned winning the Bing Crosby Stakes this summer. Next, in spite of having won this race three times previously, Bob Baffert just does not have a good record with horses coming back from layoffs in the two big races for 3-year-olds on opening weekend – the Malibu Stakes and the La Brea Stakes (for fillies). According to a query I ran using STATS Race Lens, Baffert has not won in seven tries over the last five years with horses coming back from layoffs longer than two months. His most recent win in this race, with McKinzie, came off a layoff of just under two months. Particularly, horses which last ran in May similar to Charlatan fared poorly, such as Lord Nelson (2015), Mor Spirit (2016) and Solomini (2018). With those results in mind I'm taking a stand against Charlatan, also noting he has led from start to finish in all three races to date and there's little doubt he's not going to have the early lead against Nashville.

As to the rest of the field, Express Train earned a career-best figure of 112 when second at a mile in late September over the track before a failed attempt on turf and could return to competitive form back on the main track so could get a piece. Collusion Illusion rallied from seventh to win the Bing Crosby with a 116 figure and before that won the Lazaro Barrera Stakes at the distance of six and one-half furlongs so he could be making up ground late and is another with a shot to finish in-the-money. Thousand Words ran the second worst race of his career when last seen in October, finishing eighth in the Preakness Stakes. His best efforts winning the Shared Belief Stakes and Robert B. Lewis Stakes earned 107 figures but both were two-turn races so he would need to run better than he ever has to beat many of these.

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Nashville
Independence Hall

Runhappy Malibu Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Santa Anita
Saturday, December 26 – Post Time 6:30 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $300,000

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TrackMaster’s David Siegel To Retire At The End Of 2020

David Siegel, who since 1996 has served as president and chief executive officer of TrackMaster (an Equibase Company) and was instrumental in the company's development of a comprehensive line of Thoroughbred and Harness handicapping products, will retire at the end of the year.

The announcement was made today by Jason Wilson, president of Equibase, and Ian Highet, chairman of the Equibase Management Committee. Siegel will be retained as a consultant for 2021.

“Whether under the TrackMaster or Equibase brand, a wide variety of products and services have been introduced for the betterment of racing, and Dave has played a key role in the creation of nearly all of them,” Wilson said. “He has most recently been integral in the expansion of our automated tracking strategies, and his overall contributions have been invaluable. His daily presence will be sorely missed.”

“We are very grateful for Dave's contributions in both Harness and Thoroughbred racing, and we are grateful that we will be able to continue working together, albeit on a reduced scale, for a while longer,” Highet said.

Siegel graduated Union College (Schenectady, N.Y.) summa cum laude with a degree in economics and mathematics and received his MBA from Stanford. He joined TrackMaster as vice president of marketing in 1993, the same year the company launched its service as the first electronic distributor of handicapping products using Equibase data. Siegel was named president of TrackMaster in 1996, and the company was acquired by Equibase four years later.

Under Siegel's leadership, TrackMaster has had an exclusive handicapping data agreement with the United States Trotting Association (USTA). He also managed the company's transition from a proprietary device-centric sports provider to an internet-based enhanced-data provider. Siegel was also integral to the development of the Equibase Speed Figure; TrackMaster Speed, Class and Power Ratings; the automated morning line used in more than 50% of Standardbred programs; and most recently Horse Ratings, a device used for more efficient and fair classification of harness horses.

“Dave has truly been an innovator with respect to the creation of the automated morning lines and Horse Ratings, which have been important for some racetracks to use in writing innovative condition sheets,” said USTA Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer Mike Tanner. “The partnership between the USTA and TrackMaster has been a win-win for both organizations, and that is a credit to Dave. His leadership will be missed, but we are happy that he'll stay with us as a USTA director.”

TrackMaster, a wholly owned subsidiary of Equibase Company LLC, provides a full range of handicapping products for the three major racing breeds — Thoroughbred, American Quarter Horse, and Standardbred. Equibase Company is a partnership between subsidiaries of The Jockey Club and the Thoroughbred Racing Associations of North America and serves as the Thoroughbred industry's official database. Through its website and mobile applications, Equibase offers a comprehensive array of free statistical information as well as premium handicapping products and reports in support of the North American Thoroughbred racing industry.

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