Equibase | Horse Racing Free Tips

Economic Indicators: Promising Start To 2021 As Total Wagering Increases Nearly 10 Percent

Equibase, LLC released its first monthly report of 2021 on Economic Indicators in Thoroughbred Racing on Thursday, Feb. 4. Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, Equibase has been providing monthly economic indicators advisories. The Advisory is typically disseminated on a quarterly basis to provide key metrics used to measure racing's performance throughout the year.

Total wagering on U.S. races was up 9.57 percent in the first month of 2021, despite the ongoing difficulties caused by the pandemic, including continued declines in total race days and purses. On another positive note, the decreases in race days and purses actually led to an increase in the average purses per race day, by 9.42 percent.

Of course, the 9.89 percent decline in race days and corresponding 5.99 percent decrease in races run also led to a slight increase in field size, 1.75 percent.

January 2021 vs. January 2020
Indicator	January 2021	January 2020	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$959,602,269	$875,765,850	+9.57%
U.S. Purses	$71,102,287	$72,116,730	-1.41%
U.S. Race Days	255	283	-9.89%
U.S. Races	2,211	2,352	-5.99%
U.S. Starts	17,879	18,692	-4.35%
Average Field Size	8.09	7.95	+1.75%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,763,146	$3,094,579	+21.60%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$278,832	$254,829	+9.42%

* Includes worldwide commingled wagering on U.S. races.

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U.S. Handle Up 9.5% in January

With $959,602,269 wagered, total all-sources handle for the sport rose by 9.57% in January, according to figures released Thursday by Equibase.

The January numbers reflected a fairly seamless comparison between January 2021 and January 2020 because the racing schedules for both months were not impacted by the coronavirus.

There were 2,211 races run this year, only a slight drop from the 2020 number of 2,352. Based on the amount wagered per race day, the industry saw an increase of 21.6 %.

Comparing figures during most of 2020 was particularly difficult because of the many adjustments that had to be made to racing schedules due to the pandemic.

But it may be too early to predict what patterns are going to persist for the rest of the year because January, 2021 included five Saturdays and Sundays versus just four the year before.

“I thought the month was better this year than it was last year in part because there were two more racing days on the weekends,” NTRA President and CEO Alex Waldrop said. “While it's always nice to be up 9%, I wouldn't draw any conclusions just yet. It's always good to look at something like this over time. I think we'll need three months of data before anyone can say anything definitive.”

The January numbers also provide some evidence as to whether or not the sport picked up a meaningful amount of new customers while it was “the only gambling game in town” during the first few months of the pandemic. The top ADWs thrived in 2020 and most reported a large increase in terms of new customers. TVG and its sister website, FanDuel Racing, reported that it had signed up 50,000 new customers during the year. But with total handle for the year down by just less than 1%, the numbers weren't conclusive and it was hard to gauge whether or not the sport was enjoying growth or whether or not the same pool of money as normal was being bet, just spread around differently.

The January numbers marked the second straight month that there was a healthy increase in handle. The sport saw a 6.24% jump in betting in December.

Largely due to the fact that there was less racing, purses were down throughout much of 2020, including in December when they fell by 13.24%. But the numbers in that category seem to be evening out as purses dropped by just 1.41% during the month. Average purses per race day were $278,832, for an increase of 9.42%.

Average field size was 8.09, a 1.75% improvement over January 2020.

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Equibase Analysis: Regular Guy With Fancy Pedigree Ready To Excel

A field of 11 is entered to run in the Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes, the stepping stone to the Risen Star Stakes and to the Louisiana Derby, all run at Fair Grounds on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby.” As is usually the case for newly turned 3-year-olds in early Kentucky Derby prep races, few have run in stakes at this point in their careers. Of those with stakes credentials, Midnight Bourbon might be most notable as he finished second in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes last September then third in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes in October. Game Day Play won the Clever Trevor Stakes in October and is trying two turns for the first time. Red N Wild missed by a head in the Clever Trevor then two races later was third, beaten nine lengths, in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes.

Arabian Prince is another who has made a mark in stakes races, albeit a small one, when finishing third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the end of November. Lastly among those with stakes experience, Dyn O Mite finished fifth in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes and Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity last summer as a maiden. He has won two races in a row since then.

Among the horses which are stepping into the stakes ranks for the first time are Beep Beep, Manor House, Regular Guy and Santa Cruiser, who exit maiden races all won in visually impressive fashion. Mandaloun and Proxy earned wins in their most recent starts in first level allowance races.

I'm going to start my list of horses I think can win the Lecomte Stakes with Regular Guy. This colt didn't run well at all in his first two starts, both sprints and both last summer, finishing ninth then sixth. Given two months off to mature and stretching out to a mile, Regular Guy finished second behind Santa Cruiser (who is also entered here) and earned a stellar 96 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the second best figure earned by any horse in this field. Making his first start at Fair Grounds and first start around two-turns four weeks ago, Regular Guy didn't run as fast but he won fairly easily in a field of nine.

Besides logical improvement in his second two-turn race and second at the meeting, Regular Guy also put in a very strong five furlong workout in 100.4 which was the third best of 37 on the day and that total likely included a number of older and more seasoned horses. Even better, Regular Guy has the breeding to be something special as a STATS Race Lens pedigree query yields his dam (the Unbridled's Song mare Rebridled Dreams) has produced two exceptional 3-year-olds in her short breeding career. One was Farrell, who earned over $1 million and won the 2017 Fair Grounds Oaks, and the other was Carpe Diem, winner of $1.5 million including the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes in 2014. As such, I expect Regular Guy to take a big step forward just as his siblings did during their 3-year-old campaigns and post the upset win in this year's Lecomte Stakes.

Santa Cruiser hasn't been seen since winning at a mile in November and beating Regular Guy by a length and one-half. That effort earned a 98 Equibase figure, which is the best earned by any horse in the field. I don't think the time off is of any concern particularly as Santa Cruiser has put in three straight workouts at Fair Grounds in preparation for this race. Trainer Keith Desormeaux (who also saddles Dyn O Mite) has had his share of success on the “Road to the Derby,” sometimes at high odds (Sonneteer at 99/1 in the 2017 Rebel Stakes). Therefore if Desormeaux thinks Santa Cruiser is ready for this level of competition, as well as if I think Regular Guy is a contender – as he was beaten by Santa Cruiser the only time they met, then improved to win – I must give Santa Cruiser a strong look as a contender in this race.

Mandaloun is two-for-two in his career to date, winning with a nice rally from ninth in his debut in October then improving to win a first level allowance race at seven furlongs in late November. Improving to a 94 figure with that win, the third best figure in the field, Mandaloun is on a pattern for even better in the Lecomte, provided he runs as well in his first route. That shouldn't be an issue as a son of Into Mischief, who has produced some top 3-year-olds in recent years including Authentic, Audible and Owendale. Trainer Brad Cox is already off to a sparkling start at the Fair Grounds meeting, winning 24% (13 of 55) races through last weekend, and jockey Florent Geroux rides Mandaloun again after being aboard for his first two wins.

Midnight Bourbon, like Santa Cruiser, has “Road to the Derby” breeding to go along with stakes quality form. His dam, the Malibu Moon mare Catch the Moon, produced 2015 Iroquois Stakes winner Cocked and Loaded as well as one of the top 3-year-olds in 2017, Girvin, who won the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby leading to $1.6 million in career earnings. Midnight Bourbon finished second in last year's Iroquois Stakes after making the lead and opening up with an eighth of a mile to go, earning a 91 figure which, if improved upon, is definitely competitive with the main contenders. Getting the ground saving rail and moving to trainer Asmussen's number one jockey in Ricardo Santana Jr. for the first time, Midnight Bourbon absolutely rounds out a strong quartet of win contenders in the Lecomte Stakes.

The rest of the Lecomte Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures: Arabian Prince (87), Beep Beep (91), Dyn O Mite (84), Game Day Play (80), Manor House (87), Proxy (85) and Red N Wild (91).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Regular Guy
Santa Cruiser
Mandaloun
Midnight Bourbon

$200,000 Lecomte Stakes – Grade 3
Fair Grounds
Saturday, January 16, 2021 – 13th Race. Post Time 6:49 PM E.T.
Three Year Olds

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Equibase Analysis: Never Be Enough Poised To Upset La Canada

Saturday's running of the Grade 3, $100,000 La Canada Stakes at Santa Anita Park features a field of seven mares, most of which have made their mark in similar stakes recently. Leading the field in terms of career earnings is Hard Not to Love, who won the one-turn Grade 2 Santa Monica Stakes 11 months ago and who has three runner-up finishes in graded stakes since, most recently in the G2 Zenyatta Stakes last fall. Fighting Mad is a two-time G1 winner, having captured the Santa Maria Stakes at Santa Anita last May, as well as the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes last August at Del Mar, both at the distance of the La Canada.

Proud Emma just won the identical G3 Bayakoa Stakes at Los Alamitos last month, with Message finishing second and Miss Stormy D fourth. Never Be Enough is the new face in the older female dirt division, running on conventional dirt for the first time after eight races on turf or all-weather following coming to the U.S. from Great Britain. Sanenus rounds out the field and also appears to fit with these off a runner-up effort in the G3 Chilukki Stakes in November.

Although she has never run a race on a conventional dirt surface, I believe Never Be Enough can run well enough to post the upset in this year's La Canada Stakes. This hard knocking mare leads the field by far in races run in her career (29), having won seven and finishing second in five others, including a four for 10 record in 2020. Shipping from trainer Manuel Badilla's Golden Gate Fields base last fall, Never Be Enough (GB) won the Kathryn Crosby Stakes (111 Equibase Speed Figure) on the turf at Del Mar then two races later was closing strongly late and ended up second in the Robert J. Frankel Stakes, ending up beaten just three-quarters of a length at the end by Mucho Unusual (a grade 1 stakes winner). That 111 figure matches up perfectly with the 112 figures Fighting Mad earned winning the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes and with the 112 figure Hard Not to Love earned when second in the Santa Maria Stakes. As such, if Never Be Enough can transfer her form to the main track, she has every right to run well enough to win this race

Fighting Mad hasn't been seen since finishing third as the prohibitive favorite in the Zenyatta Stakes last September, a disappointing effort which led to her skipping the Breeders' Cup Distaff and taking time off to prepare for her five year old campaign. Prior to that, Fighting Mad led from start to finish and dominated against short five and six horse fields in the Santa Maria Stakes (117 figure) and Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (112 figure). In the La Canada, I expect Fighting Mad to secure the lead at the start and try to control the pace to the finish, which is certainly possible. However, horses like Message, Sanenus and Miss Stormy D may also want the lead or to be very close to the front, which may see Fighting Mad run more like she did in the Zenyatta when passed late in the stretch.

Proud Emma just won the identical Bayakoa Stakes at Los Alamitos with a 104 figure and three races before that won the Tranquility Lake Stakes with a 105 figure. In both races, Proud Emma closed from off the pace so in the La Canada she has a chance to save ground from the rail and close into the pacesetter in the stretch although she would need to improve to get to the 112 figure level it appears the winner of this race will need to earn to win.

Hard Not to Love is certainly a contender but I don't think she can win the La Canada. In three of her four races around two turns she managed second place, but all were in short fields of six or less. The best of those earned a 112 figure when second in the Santa Maria. However, Fighting Mad won that race after leading from the start and that's a more likely scenario in my opinion than Hard Not to Love turning the tables on her foe.

The rest of the La Canada Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Message (105), Miss Stormy D (111) and Sanenus (97).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Never Be Enough (GB)
Fighting Mad
Proud Emma

La Canada Stakes – Grade 3
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, Jan. 9, 2021 – Post Time 6:30 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward
Purse: $100,000

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