Saturday's Grade 1, $750,000 Wood Memorial Presented by Resorts World Casino is the first of three “Road to the Kentucky Derby” prep races within the span of one hour on Saturday, April 3. Except for the Arkansas Derby to be run one week from now, these three races, which include the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, offer the winner a guaranteed spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May by affording the winner 100 points. Even the 40 points the runner-up will earn in these races could be sufficient to help secure a spot among the 20 which will participate in the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports” next month.
The Wood Memorial drew a field of nine, led by the one-two finishers in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes last month in Weyburn and Crowded Trade, respectively. Another stakes winner who may belong is Risk Taking, who won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes in February at Aqueduct but who skipped the Gotham. Brooklyn Strong won the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes over the track at the distance of the Wood Memorial, but it may be a tall order to pick up where he left off following four months on the bench and versus horses which all ran much more recently.
Candy Man Rocket won the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in February before an 11th of 12 finish in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and it may be a stretch to go from next-to-last in that recent race to a top competitor in the Wood Memorial. Market Maven and Bourbonic finished first and second, respectively, in an allowance race at Parx Racing in Pennsylvania but appear overmatched, as does recent maiden winner Dynamic One.
Then there's Prevalence, a strong winner of both starts in his career shipping in to New York from Florida for Godolphin, which already has a significant presence on the “Road to the Derby” with Rebel's Romance (winner of the U.A.E. Derby last weekend), Essential Quality (running in the Blue Grass Stakes), and Proxy.
Weyburn was disregarded by bettors at 46 to 1 odds one month ago in the Gotham Stakes but proved to be an exceptionally tough competitor when winning by a nose. After attending the pace only a half-length behind the leader for the first half-mile, Weyburn engaged for the lead for the rest of the race, first battling head and head with Freedom Fighter then battling nose and nose the entire last eighth of a mile with Crowded Trade. That effort occurring one month ago leads me to believe he will not regress and will move forward to run even better in the Wood Memorial. Considering Weyburn earned a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure, tied for best in the field with Crowded Trade, it would take significant improvement by any other runner except Crowded Trade to run faster than Weyburn demonstrating logical improvement in his second start following three months off. As such, Weyburn gets slight preference among two horses I feel stand out against the rest in terms of their probability to win this race.
Crowded Trade has no knocks, having won in his career debut at the end of January before stepping into stakes company in the Gotham Stakes last month and giving it his all. Third place Gotham finisher Highly Motivated is looking for different scenery this weekend and will run in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. With no other horse having run as fast as either Crowded Trade (or Weyburn) who earned a 105 figure in the Gotham, this lightly raced colt making his third career start has significant improving he can do and must be considered a strong contender to win. As to his breeding to run this nine furlong trip, there's no doubt as a son of More Than Ready that is not an issue as the sire's Catholic Boy won graded stakes at a mile and one-quarter. Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by red hot Eric Cancel, Crowded Trade has every right to turn the tables on Weyburn in their second meeting and move on to the Kentucky Derby in fine form.
Prevalence, like Crowded Trade, has only run twice, and likewise his second race was a one-turn mile in which he ran impressively. After winning his debut by eight lengths in handy fashion with a 99 figure, Prevalence won his second start just as easily by three lengths with a 98 figure but likely could have gone faster. Perhaps more importantly, after he crossed the finish line it was noted by the astute chart caller for Equibase that Prevalence was “urged past the wire for an eighth of a mile or so past the finish.” This is significant, as it shows a plan beforehand between jockey Tyler Gaffalione (who rides in the Wood) and trainer Brendan Walsh (who trained top 3-year-old Maxfield last year) to give the colt experience at running the distance of his next race. Being a son of Medaglia d'Oro, who sired tremendous stakes winners like Songbird and Wonder Gadot, if Prevalence got the foundation for this race as intended, improving enough to win the Wood Memorial is not out of the question.
In case readers are wondering, the reason I'm not considering Risk Taking a win contender has to do with the fact he comes back from two months off after winning the Withers Stakes in February. Although the 102 figure earned in that race may be competitive with the top horses in the Wood if he improves on it, the fact that he skipped the Gotham and most of his opponents ran more recently gives me pause.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Bourbonic (88), Brooklyn Strong (99), Candy Man Rocket (90), Dynamic One (87) and Market Maven (94).
Win Contenders:
Weyburn
Crowded Trade
Prevalence
Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino – Grade 2
Race 10 at Aqueduct
Saturday, April 3 – Post Time 5:58 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $750,000
TV: NBC Sports Network 5:30 – 7:30 PM ET
The post Equibase Analysis: Weyburn Poised To Validate Gotham Upset In Wood Memorial appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
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