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Economic Indicators: Month-To-Month Wagering Numbers Fairly Steady In June

Equibase, LLC released its sixth monthly report of 2021 on Economic Indicators in Thoroughbred Racing on Tuesday, July 6. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Equibase has been providing monthly economic indicators advisories. The Advisory is typically disseminated on a quarterly basis to provide key metrics used to measure racing's performance throughout the year.

The total U.S. wagering for June of 2021 was nearly even with that of June 2019, despite a 12.60 percent drop in races held. In addition, June of 2019 had five weekends of racing, while June of 2021 only had four; wagering is typically much higher on weekends than on weekdays.

Comparison to June of 2020, when racing was seriously disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, actually shows a slight decline from $998 million in 2020 to $993 million in 2021.

Year-to-date numbers for 2019 versus 2021 show that total wagering has increased by 10.67 percent, while average daily wagering is up 23.79 percent.

The first six months of 2019 showed wagering totals of $5.6 trillion, while the first six months of 2020 brought in wagering of $5.05 trillion. In 2021, the first six months have increased to show wagering totals of $6.2 trillion.

June 2021 vs. June 2020
Indicator	June 2021		June 2020		% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$993,147,243		$998,331,984		-0.52%
U.S. Purses	$103,624,634		$69,469,595		+49.17%
U.S. Race Days	437		300		+45.67%
U.S. Races	3,413		2,485		+37.34%
U.S. Starts	23,870		20,146		+18.49%
Average Field Size	6.99		8.11		-13.73%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$2,272,648		$3,327,773		-31.71%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$237,127		$231,565		+2.40%

2nd QTR 2021 vs. 2nd QTR 2020
Indicator		2nd QTR 2021		2nd QTR 2020		% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*		$3,511,798,209		$2,545,997,500		+37.93%
U.S. Purses		$299,952,725		$118,940,997		+152.19%
U.S. Race Days		1,115		508		+119.49%
U.S. Races		9,090		4,290		+111.89%
U.S. Starts		65,092		36,101		+80.31%
Average Field Size		7.16		8.42		-14.91%
Average Wagering Per Race Day		$3,149,595		$5,011,806		-37.16%
Average Purses Per Race Day		$269,016		$234,136		+14.90%

YTD 2021 vs. YTD 2020
Indicator	YTD 2021	YTD 2020	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$6,277,894,486	$5,054,526,907	+24.20%
U.S. Purses	$514,950,882	$324,168,648	+58.85%
U.S. Race Days	1,881	1,301	+44.58%
U.S. Races	15,792	10,906	+44.80%
U.S. Starts	117,303	88,074	+33.19%
Average Field Size	7.43	8.08	-8.02%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,337,530	$3,885,109	-14.09%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$273,764	$249,169	+9.87%

2019 Comparisons:

June 2021 vs. June 2019
Indicator	June 2021	June 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$993,147,243	$990,923,384	+0.22%
U.S. Purses	$103,624,634	$115,194,834	-10.04%
U.S. Race Days	437	499	-12.42%
U.S. Races	3,413	3,905	-12.60%
U.S. Starts	23,870	27,726	-13.91%
Average Field Size	6.99	7.10	-1.50%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$2,272,648	$1,985,818	+14.44%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$237,127	$230,851	+2.72%

2nd QTR 2021 vs. 2nd QTR 2019
Indicator	2nd QTR 2021	2nd QTR 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$3,511,798,209	$3,137,805,499	+11.92%
U.S. Purses	$299,952,725	$316,882,492	-5.34%
U.S. Race Days	1,115	1,260	-11.51%
U.S. Races	9,090	10,167	-10.59%
U.S. Starts	65,092	73,409	-11.33%
Average Field Size	7.16	7.22	-0.82%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,149,595	$2,490,322	+26.47%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$269,016	$251,494	+6.97%

YTD 2021 vs. YTD 2019
Indicator	YTD 2021	YTD 2019	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$6,277,894,486	$5,672,774,271	+10.67%
U.S. Purses	$514,950,882	$544,002,132	-5.34%
U.S. Race Days	1,881	2,104	-10.60%
U.S. Races	15,792	17,457	-9.54%
U.S. Starts	117,303	130,239	-9.93%
Average Field Size	7.43	7.46	-0.44%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,337,530	$2,696,185	+23.79%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$273,764	$258,556	+5.88%

* Includes worldwide commingled wagering on U.S. races.

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Wagering Down Slightly in June from 2020

Wagering on U.S. races has dipped slightly from $998,331,984 in 2020 to $993,147,243 this season, according to the Thoroughbred Racing Economic Indicators released by Equibase Tuesday. The drop represents a 0.52% change over a year ago. Conversely, wagering rose 0.22% from pre-COVID-19 figures in 2019 when $990,923,384 was wagering during the month of June. In 2021, purses rose 49.17% to $103,624,634 from last year as did race days which increased to 437 from 300 in 2020. Purse figures for the comparable time frame in 2019 were $115,194,83, with 499 race days conducted in June of that year. Also up over last year, 3,413 races were contested in the U.S. (+37.34%) as was number of starts, rising 18.49% to 23,870. Average purse size fell 13.73% to 6.99 last month, while average wagering per race day tumbled 31.71% to $2,272,648. Average purses per race day increased by 2.4% to $237,127.

Generally speaking, the year-to-date figures showed increases, including U.S. wagering rising 24.20% to $6,277, 894,486 and U.S. purses rising 58.85% to $514,950,882. Also showing big gains from 2020 to 2021, U.S. race days rose 44.58% to 1,881 and U.S. race days increasing to 15,792 from 10,906 in 2020. Average field size fell to 7.43 from 8.08, while average wagering per race day also dipped to $3,337,530 from $3,885,109.

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Equibase Analysis: Mystic Guide Likely To Best Happy Saver In Suburban

Although this Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Suburban Stakes drew just six entrants, it is still likely to prove to be a very exciting race because of two horses – Happy Saver and Mystic Guide. Both 4-year-olds and lightly raced, Happy Saver won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup last October and returned to the races at the end of May for a big win, while Mystic Guide returns from three months off after having won the Grade 1, $12 million Dubai World Cup in March, having finished second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup the only time he faced Happy Saver previously.

The contention does not end there, with Informative entering the race off a 79 to 1 upset in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile Stakes last month. Moretti finished third in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Stakes last month following 10 months away from the races and finished second in last year's Suburban so appears to fit here. Max Player and Prioritize round out the field and appear off form, with Max Player coming into the race off a poor sixth place effort in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special and with Prioritize having finished fifth in the same race.

Assuming Mystic Guide is ready to run following a bit over three months off, I think he is more probable to win than Happy Saver based on his win in the Dubai World Cup near the end of March. Now with a record of 4-2-2 in eight career starts, Mystic Guide won the Jim Dandy Stakes last summer as a 3-year-old in only the fifth start of his career, before stretching out to 10 furlongs in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont last October. In that race, Mystic Guide rallied to make the lead by a head with an eight of a mile to go over Happy Saver but was beaten three-quarters of a length at the end, earning a then career-best 104 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure in the process.

Taking four and one-half months off to mature, Mystic Guide made short work of six other horses in the Razorback Stakes in his 2021 debut in February with a 108 figure, before easily defeating 11 other horses in the Dubai World Cup at the distance of the Suburban. The World Cup effort earned a 115 figure, and considering the Suburban will be his third start of the year we can expect even better. Having put in a nice series of workouts since returning to North America, including a best of 33 drill one week ago at the distance of a half-mile, Mystic Guide gets a slight edge over a very worthy opponent in Happy Saver.

Happy Saver actually earned the best ™ figure of his career in his second career start, last July at Saratoga at nine furlongs. The 116 figure was tremendous being as he had only run once before, winning his debut by five lengths in June at the distance of seven furlongs. Easily winning the Federico Tesio Stakes in September, Happy Saver set his sights on the Jockey Club Gold Cup at this 10 furlong trip and put away Mystic Guide in the final yards to earn a 109 figure. Rested nearly eight months, Happy Saver returned to beat a non-descript field of allowance foes as expected at the end of May with a 99 figure. Considering how well he ran in his second career start last July, we can expect Happy Saver to improve markedly off his 2021 debut and that is why the second match between him and Mystic Guide can be expected to be one to behold.

Informative was disregarded at 30 to 1 two races back when finishing second in an allowance race and earning a career-best 103 figure, then one month later ran even better. In the Salvator Mile Stakes at Monmouth on June 12, Informative rallied from last of 10 to win by a length when completely dismissed by bettors at 79 to 1 odds. The 110 figure appears legitimate and as it is as good as the 108 figure Mystic Guide earned winning the Razorback Stakes and the 109 figure Happy Saver earned winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and considering it could be improved upon as Informative is a 4-year-old like the other two contenders, this upstart can't be dismissed as a contender in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Max Player (99), Moretti (106) and Prioritize (107).

Win Contenders:
Mystic Guide
Happy Saver
Informative

Suburban Stakes – Grade 2
Race 10 at Belmont Park
Saturday, July 3 – Post Time 5:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $400,000

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Equibase Analysis: Silver Dust Could Upset Maxfield In Stephen Foster

This Saturday's Grade 2, $600,000 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs brings together a field of nine horses in the Breeders' Cup Classic division trying to earn a “Win and You're In” spot into the big race in November. Leading the field in terms of recent accomplishments is Maxfield, an earner of more than $900K in his career and the winner of six of seven lifetime races who enters the Stephen Foster off a win in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes in April at Churchill.

Chess Chief won the similar Grade 2 New Orleans Stakes in March, before a non-threatening third-place effort behind Maxfield in the Alysheba. Warrior's Charge is another who has had an excellent career, banking $887K, but his most recent win came in February of 2020 when victorious in the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap. Visitant finished second in the Alysheba following a win in the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes and will certainly be on many a contender list.

South Bend won the Street Sense Stakes over the track as a two year old in 2019 and was winless in 12 straight before a strong allowance win in April. Sprawl just missed by a head in a three horse photo in the Blame Stakes over the track in his most recent race. Necker Island won his most recent race, also over the track just 20 days ago, but had not won prior to that since November, 2019 and has never won a stakes race. Empty Tomb rounds out the field, also going for his first stakes win and also having just won a race at Churchill Downs last month.

I'll start my win contender list with Silver Dust, who has a lot of mental ability to go along with his physical ability. This has resulted in 14 first or second place finishes in 31 dirt races and earnings of $975,677. Perhaps better still, Silver Dust has finished in the top three in eight of 10 career starts at Churchill Downs, winning twice. His best effort ever came over the track and was not a win but occurred when leading late and coming up a neck short of victory in the Lukas Classic Stakes in the fall of 2019, earning a very strong 113 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure in the process.

Putting that into perspective among the rest of the field, favorite Maxfield earned a 115 figure winning the Alysheba Stakes in his most recent race. In April, 20 days before Maxfield won the Alysheba, Silver Dust won the Ben Ali Stakes at the distance of the Stephen Foster even after a slow start and having to battle with two other horses the entire length of the stretch. Jockey Adam Beschizza rode Silver Dust to that victory and rides again which in my opinion gives Silver Dust a chance at posting the upset over likely heavily favored Maxfield in the race.

Maxfield won the first five races of his career including four stakes, the biggest of which was the 2019 Breeders' Futurity. Last season as a three year old Maxfield won the Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs in May but was unable to make the rescheduled Kentucky Derby in September. He returned off a layoff last December to win consecutive races including the Mineshaft Stakes with a then career-best 111 ™ figure. After a disappointing third-place finish as the heavy favorite in the Santa Anita Handicap in March of this year, Maxfield won the Alysheba Stakes on April 30 at Churchill Downs with authority, establishing a new career-best 115 figure while pulling away at the end to suggest he can run even better in the Stephen Foster.

Visitant won three of four races to start his career including the Alcatraz Stakes in the spring of 2019, then after two poorer efforts and a setback took 13 months off. Returning in the fall of 2020, Visitant got back into top form in his first two-turn race and second start of his comeback last December, then two races later in March won the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes at the distance of the Stephen Foster. Earning career-best 107 ™ figures in the comeback win in March and in the Kentucky Cup Classic, Visitant next squared off against Maxfield in the Alysheba and wasn't disgraced a bit when settling for second after leading for the first six furlongs in the race. The 110 figure earned in the Alysheba was a new best figure and he was four lengths clear of the third horse in a solid effort. Having run three “A” races in a row as a five year old, Visitant must be respected as a strong contender in this year's Stephen Foster Stakes.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Chess Chief (106), Empty Tomb (100), Necker Island (99), South Bend (102), Sprawl (111) and Warrior's Charge (110).

Win Contenders:
Silver Dust
Maxfield
Visitant

Stephen Foster Stakes – Grade 2
Race 11 at Churchill Downs
Saturday, June 26 – Post Time 5:59 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $600,000

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