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Equibase Analysis: Vertical Threat Poised To Upset Bing Crosby

This Saturday's Grade 1, $300,000 Bing Crosby Stakes at Del Mar is a “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Sprint this fall and as such drew a field full of very good sprinters, nine to be exact. Last year's Bing Crosby Stakes winner Collusion Illusion is back to defend his title but whereas he was sent to post at nine to five odds one year ago on the strength of three straight wins, including the Grade 3 Lazaro Barrera Stakes, this year Collusion Illusion returns from seven months off and lost his last three starts of 2020.

Instead, favoritism is likely to go to C Z Rocket with career earnings of nearly $1.4 million, much of that earned when second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall and when winning the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Stakes at Del Mar last summer. Law Abidin Citizen was third in last year's Bing Crosby behind Collusion Illusion then four weeks later finished third in the Pat O'Brien behind C Z Rocket. He enters the race off a win in the Oak Tree Sprint Stakes four weeks ago at Pleasanton.

Vertical Threat is another with strong stakes credentials, last seen winning the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes in November and having also won the Smiling Tiger Stakes at Del Mar last summer. Quick Tempo returned from nearly seven months off four weeks ago for a strong second place effort in the Iowa Sprint Stakes, while Brickyard Ride easily won the Grade 2 San Carlos Stakes in March and enters the race off a win in the Thor's Echo Stakes.

Shooters Shoot is yet another with good credentials in similar sprint stakes as he was second in the Grade 2 Triple Bend Stakes when last seen at the end of May. Eight Rings finished fourth in that race as the eight to five favorite and hasn't run since. Dr. Schivel rounds out the field, but has to be considered a contender as he won the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity last summer and returned from nine months off to win just last month.

Vertical Threat is a perfect three-for-three in sprints. Each of those three wins came at the six furlong distance of the Bing Crosby. One of those wins came at Del Mar last summer when, in only the second start of his career, Vertical Threat won the Smiling Tiger Stakes. That effort earned him a career-best 107 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure off a 102 figure one month earlier. After a failed attempt at a longer distance in the Pat Day Mile last September, Vertical Threat rested two months and shipped to Ohio for a dominant performance with a field high 118 figure winning the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes in a field of 12. In this year's Bing Crosby there is likely to be a contested early pace battle between Quick Tempo and Brickyard Ride, who have only won when leading from the start. Considering Vertical Threat closed from off the pace to win last June then again in July in the Smiling Tiger, the colt could get first run on the tiring leaders and hold off any horses farther back in the early stages. Additionally, he's very likely to be stronger as a four year old so having put in some superb workouts for his comeback, Vertical Threat has a fine chance to keep his perfect record at the distance intact to win.

C Z Rocket has won 11 of 26 career races including four of eight at this distance. He also won the only time he ever raced at Del Mar. That win came last year when taking the Pat O'Brien Stakes at seven furlongs in August with a 110 ™ figure. C Z Rocket is even faster at this six furlong trip, as he earned a 117 figure last September when victorious in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. Not disgraced one bit when second behind Whitmore in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall, C Z Rocket won his first two starts of 2021, first with a 111 figure in the Hot Springs Stakes then a 114 in the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap. Stretching out to a mile and running over a sloppy track, C Z Rocket was second in the Steve Sexton Mile in May and on the cut back to his best distance has every right to rebound to a winning effort.

Dr. Schivel, like Vertical Threat, has only run five times. He improved markedly last summer at Del Mar when easily winning to break his maiden in his third career start (with a 108 figure) before victory in the Del Mar Futurity as the betting favorite. Taking his time to get back to the races, Dr. Schivel returned in June as if he had never been away as he relaxed in fourth in the early stages before getting up by a neck right on the wire. That effort earned him a new career best 109 figure from which he should improve in his second start off the layoff, and as a previous grade 1 stakes winner, Dr. Schivel could certainly run well enough to win.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Brickyard Ride (115), Collusion Illusion (111), Eight Rings (104), Law Abidin Citizen (108), Quick Tempo (107) and Shooters Shoot (101).

Win Contenders:
Vertical Threat
C Z Rocket
Dr. Schivel

Bing Crosby Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Del Mar
Saturday, July 31 – Post Time 9:30 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $300,000

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Equibase Adds Filtering Options To North American Entries Section

The ability to filter entries by a variety of categories has been incorporated within the North American entries section on equibase.com, it was announced today by Equibase Company President and Chief Operating Officer Sal Sinatra.

“People who use equibase.com view entries information more than any other section of our website, so we are pleased to be able to add this feature for those who want to see only a particular category of upcoming races,” Sinatra said. “As an example, a handicapper who enjoys betting on races with large fields can now easily find races that fit those criteria.”

With this new feature, users have the ability to filter entries for all tracks with current entries or entries specific to their favorite track. There are six race types that can be filtered: maiden, maiden claiming, claiming, allowance, stakes and handicaps, and graded stakes races. The other categories users can now filter through when viewing entries are distance, surface, purse, ages of the horses entered, and number of starters in the race.

Equibase Company is a partnership between subsidiaries of The Jockey Club and the Thoroughbred Racing Associations of North America and serves as the Thoroughbred industry's official database. Through its website and mobile applications, Equibase offers a comprehensive array of free statistical information as well as premium handicapping products and reports in support of the North American Thoroughbred racing industry.

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Equibase Analysis: Midnight Bourbon Poised To Upset Haskell

This Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million TVG.com Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park drew a field of seven, led by Grade 1 Kentucky Derby runner-up Mandaloun and third place finisher Hot Rod Charlie, both of whom have run well since then. Mandaloun won the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth since the Derby, while Hot Rod Charlie finished second in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, so both enter the Haskell in top form.

Midnight Bourbon finished sixth in the Derby before a second place finish in the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, so also fits the bill of a horse that has been competitive at the top level for 3-year-olds. Following Sea is the unknown factor in the race, having won his last two races by an average of six lengths and in powerful fashion, but he is racing in a stakes and running in a route race for the first time. Antigravity, Basso, and Pickin' Time round out the field, the latter the only stakes winner among the three as he captured the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes last November before three much poorer efforts.

Midnight Bourbon intrigues this handicapper in this year's Haskell Stakes. Midnight Bourbon got the jump on many a Kentucky Derby contender when winning the Lecomte Stakes in January following three months off, easily beating Mandaloun by a length. Following that, he finished third behind Mandaloun in the Risen Star Stakes then second behind Hot Rod Charlie in the Louisiana Derby, a race in which Mandaloun checked in sixth. In the Kentucky Derby, Midnight Bourbon was bumped early and four wide on both turns but managed to rally from 12th to sixth at the end while his two foes each got much better trips. Returning two weeks later in the Preakness, which both the other two passed, Midnight Bourbon stalked the pacesetter in second before making the lead and opening up with an eighth of a mile to go before being run down by Rombauer.

Still, Midnight Bourbon was two lengths clear of Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit and much further ahead of the other seven horses. Considering his breeding, it is no surprise Midnight Bourbon fits at the top level and two of his half-brothers (same dam) have had tremendous success at Monmouth. One of those is Pirates Punch, who won both the Iselin Stakes and Salvator Mile Stakes last year. More importantly, the other is 2017 Haskell winner Girvin, who earned more than $1.6 million in his career. With consistent ™ Equibase® Speed Figures going back to the Lecomte of 99, 95, 96, 99 and 98, it is conceivable Midnight Bourbon could be that much more mature with two months off and can turn the tables on both Hot Rod Charlie and Mandaloun to win this year's Haskell Stakes.

Mandaloun really needs no talking up as his 4-1-1 record in seven career starts speaks for itself. Ignoring the Louisiana Derby where he finished sixth and considering he rebounded nicely for second in the Kentucky Derby following that race, Mandaloun has showed up every time he has run. Following the Derby, Mandaloun was very game in securing a neck victory last month in the local prep for the Haskell, the Pegasus Stakes, and certainly familiarity with the track has its benefits. Having earned a 110 ™ Figure in the Derby then following that up with a 109 figure in the Pegasus, Mandaloun should be expected to run another “A” race good enough to win in this race.

Hot Rod Charlie has a tremendous competitive spirit as evidenced by finishing no worse than third in all seven route races in his career, the last five of those graded stakes. After proving his runner-up effort at 94 to 1 odds in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall was no fluke when winning the Louisiana Derby two races later this past March, the colt was third in the Kentucky Derby (109 figure) before his runner up effort in the Belmont Stakes (108 figure) last month. The one knock Hot Rod Charlie may have, however, is he doesn't have any type of explosive kick. In the last quarter mile of his past six races, he has not really passed a horse. For example, in the Derby he was third for the last part of the race and in the Belmont he was second for the last quarter mile. Blinkers are removed for the Haskell which may help him find that added kick in the stretch when he sees his opponents better and certainly Hot Rod Charlie has earned his place among the top 3-year-olds of 2021 and might make his mark in this year's Haskell.

Honorable mention goes to Following Sea, who finished second in his debut in March before authoritatively winning his other two races. Earning a 110 figure competitive with the top contenders in this race while geared down to a five and three-quarter length win in April, in only the second start of his career, Following Sea won just as easily by 6 1/2 lengths last month with a 105 figure effort. Going from a sprint (6 1/2 furlongs) to a nine-furlong race is a tall order, but Following Sea is now in the hands of Todd Pletcher so there is no question he is ready for this test. As to pedigree, sire Runhappy's progeny have won 11 of 55 route races to date, though few have contested stakes. If not for the lack of experience in route races, Following Sea might have been my top choice to win this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Antigravity (97), Basso (82) and Pickin' Time (91).

Win Contenders:
Midnight Bourbon
Mandaloun
Hot Rod Charlie

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Equibase Analysis: Tokyo Gold, Not Bolshoi Ballet, The Horse To Beat In Belmont Derby

This Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Derby Invitational drew a field of nine horses, six which are stakes winners with five of those entering the race off victories. Leading the field in earnings is Tokyo Gold (FR), winner of the Group 3 Derby Italiano Universita Campus Bio-Med in May, otherwise known as the Italian Derby.

However, likely favoritism among bettors is likely to come from Bolshoi Ballet (IRE), winner of the Group 3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial before a disappointing seventh place finish as the betting favorite in the Group 1 Cazoo Derby (otherwise known as the Epsom Derby) last month.

Du Jour deserves respect as he enters the Belmont Derby off a victory in the Grade 2 American Turf Stakes in May, which was his third straight win. Similarly, Sainthood won the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge Stakes at the end of May at Belmont, but on dirt, when the race was transferred to the main track due to the condition of the turf course.

Cellist is another of the recent stakes winners, having captured the Audubon Stakes at the end of May, with Palazzi beaten three-quarters of a length when second in that race. Hard Love won the Woodhaven Stakes on turf in April following five months off before a strong allowance win last month.

Safe Conduct and Hidden Enemy (IRE) round out the field, the former an allowance winner at the start of May before a poor fourth place finish in the Pennine Ridge at the end of the month and the latter a non-threatening fourth in both the American Turf and Audubon.

Tokyo Gold (FR) had a fairly good 2-year-old campaign when winning the second and third starts of his career last summer, the latter of the two in a listed stakes. Finishing off his season, Tokyo Gold (FR) was beaten more than 20 lengths in a group three race but that was run on heavy ground which he did not care for. Returning for his sophomore season in March, Tokyo Gold (FR) finished second in a listed stakes before a fourth of nine finish in the Prix Noailles Stakes. His “light bulb” moment came in the Italian Derby on May 23 when, after racing in the back of the pack for most of the race, Tokyo Gold (FR) took to the middle of the track and accelerated strongly to win by four lengths, eased up at the finish.

The acceleration shown when given his cue in the Italian Derby showed Tokyo Gold (FR) had come of age and the pattern of improving ™ Equibase® Speed Figures this year (97, 105 then 107) suggests Tokyo Gold (FR) is the one to beat in this year's Belmont Derby Invitational, particularly as he is shortening up in distance from one mile and three-eighths to one mile and one-quarter and gets John Velazquez to ride.

Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) was sent to post as the fairly heavy favorite in the Epsom Derby last month on the strength of his six length win one month earlier in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial but checked in seventh. The reason for the poor effort was revealed as soon as the colt returned to be unsaddled as it was discovered he had sustained a cut to his hind leg in the early portions of the race. Prior to the Derby Trial, Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) won the Ballysax Stakes rather easily in his 3-year-old, following six months off. Earning a 106 ™ figure in the Ballysax before a new career-best 113 figure in the Derby Trial, it wouldn't be a leap to assume the colt would have improved again in the Epsom Derby if not for the injury and so if he returns to the form shown in those two earlier wins, both at the mile and one-quarter distance of the Belmont Derby, Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) could provide us with a thrilling battle with Tokyo Gold (FR) in this race.

Hard Love is an improving colt who has potential to post the minor upset if he continues the pattern of improvement he began in April after returning from five months off. A winner on debut last fall, Hard Love improved to a 102 figure effort when second in the Central Park Stakes, then following the layoff won the Woodhaven Stakes in April with a 99 figure. Flattered when the runner-up won his next start, Hard Love entered an allowance race over this turf course to prepare for the Belmont Derby and although not a stakes race it must be noted he was only one of two horses in the 12 horse field which were 3-year-olds, the rest being older horses. Improving markedly to a 105 figure winning that race, if Hard Love can take a similar step forward by six points into the 111 range he could run as well as either Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) and Tokyo Gold (FR) and as such may have a legitimate shot to win this year's Belmont Derby Invitational.

Another improving colt is Du Jour, who has won three races in a row. The pattern of improvement from 84 to 99 to 103 in terms of his Equibase Speed Figures shows a horse which is getting physically and mentally stronger as the season goes on. Du Jour earned his most recent win in the American Turf Stakes on Kentucky Derby day and prevailed nicely in a field of 14. Now in the hands of Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott and retaining the services of jockey Flavien Prat, who has been in the saddle for all three of the colt's wins, Du Jour has to be a horse we consider when wagering on this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Cellist (99), Hidden Enemy (IRE) (93), Palazzi (98), Safe Conduct (99) and Sainthood (101).

Win contenders:
Tokyo Gold (FR)
Bolshoi Ballet (IRE)
Hard Love
Du Jour

Belmont Derby Invitational – Grade 1
Race 9 at Belmont Park
Saturday July 10 – Post Time 5:12 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter on Turf
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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