Tag: Equibase

Equibase Analysis: Speaker’s Corner Poised To Upset Pennsylvania Derby

The Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby, which took a hiatus last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, is back and better than ever for 2021. Nine horses are likely to run, including Grade 1 Kentucky Derby third place finisher Hot Rod Charlie, who crossed the finish line first in the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes in July only to be disqualified for interference and placed last of seven.

Keepmeinmind and Bourbonic, respectively the seventh and 13th place Kentucky Derby finishers, are winless in six races combined since then and hope to improve back to top form, although it must be noted Keepmeinmind was only beaten a half-length for the win in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes in July by Essential Quality, who is bypassing this race after winning the Grade 1 Travers Stakes one month ago.

Fourth place Jim Dandy finisher Weyburn earned the biggest victory of his career this past March in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes but has only managed fourth place finishes in his two tries at this mile and one-eighth distance.

Midnight Bourbon improved off a sixth place effort in the Kentucky Derby to finish second in the Preakness, then did not finish the Haskell after losing his jockey when Hot Rod Charlie drifted into his path in the stretch. He enters the race off a strong runner-up effort, beaten a neck, to Essential Quality in the Travers.

Next comes a quartet of horses which have never run in the same races the other five have run. Fulsome just won the Grade 3 Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx and earlier this year took the Oaklawn Stakes at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby so must be respected. Recent double stakes winner Americanrevolution is another horse deserving a close look as he won the Albany Stakes at this distance four weeks ago. I Am Redeemed has won three of four career start including the Storm Cat Stakes at Parx last month, while Speaker's Corner stretches out to two turns for the first time and runs in a stakes race off a very strong win at Saratoga last month.

Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit was entered but will not run in this race per an announcement Tuesday, Sept. 21.

Main contenders to win:

Trainer Bill Mott is in the Hall-of-Fame for many reasons, and one of those is his ability to know when a horse in his care is talented enough to compete at the top level. With that in mind, Speaker's Corner is my top choice to win this year's Pennsylvania Derby.

Speaker's Corner is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just three times. He debuted a little over one year ago and finished third then improved sensationally off the experience to win last October. Whatever kept him away from the races from last fall until last month is irrelevant now as Speaker's Corner returned on Aug. 14 to win impressively beating older horses at the distance of seven furlongs, which is a difficult task off a long layoff.

Jose Ortiz rode Speaker's Corner for the first time last month and returns again with a colt that is highly likely to take a big step up second off the layoff just as he did in his second career start. Considering Speaker's Corner earned a 107 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure with the effort last month, he could easily run faster than favorites Hot Rod Charlie (113 in July) and Midnight Bourbon (109 last month). In addition to the physical and mental improvement expected in his second start off a layoff, we can also expect Speaker's Corner to improve based on Bill Mott's record when stretching a horse out from sprint to a route off in its second start off a layoff in the past two years.

Specifically with 3-year-olds like Speaker's Corner, Mott did this with Candy Man Rocket when saddling him to victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes this winter, and with Art Collector just last month in the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga. Additionally, owner/breeder Godolphin, whose Essential Quality is one of the top 3-year-olds of 2021, is on a hot streak as they owned the winners of the Summer Stakes, the Natalma Stakes, the Pattison Canadian International and the Jockey Club Derby Invitational last weekend. As such, it may be very difficult to pass on Speaker's Corner as a win bet at high odds in this year's Pennsylvania Derby.

Americanrevolution is also likely to go to the gate at high odds, even though he has a perfect three-for-three record in 2021. Moving to the barn of Todd Pletcher for his first start of the year and second of his career and following eight months off, Americanrevolution won a sprint then when stretching out to two turns improved dramatically for a seven length win in the New York Derby. Better still, in the Albany Stakes last month at Saratoga and at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby, Americanrevolution won in a hand ride by five lengths to earn a 108 ™ figure which is logically going to be improved upon on his current pattern.

Jockey Luis Saez, who recently captured the Saratoga riding title against the strongest jockey colony in North America, has been aboard for all three of the colt's wins to date and will be in the saddle once again. A son of Constitution, whose Tiz the Law won four graded stakes as a three year old last year, Americanrevolution has tremendous potential to run well in this race and I would not hesitate to bet him to win in addition to Speaker's Corner if the odds are high.

Hot Rod Charlie is a street fighter of a horse, with a very strong competitive instinct backed up with great ability. First, second, or third in seven straight races, Hot Rod Charlie has never lost his physical edge since last October when earning his first win. Beaten one length when third in the Kentucky Derby and earning a career-best 109 figure in the process, Hot Rod Charlie battled head-and-head for most of the last half-mile in the often grueling Belmont Stakes five weeks later, beaten a bit over a length and 11 lengths clear of third place finisher Rombauer, who had just posted the upset win in the Preakness three weeks earlier. Then, in the Haskell Stakes in mid-July, Hot Rod Charlie did everything asked when beating Mandaloun by a nose, but was disqualified and placed last for drifting in with an eighth of a mile to go and in the steward's view causing Midnight Bourbon to trip and lose his jockey. That effort earned Hot Rod Charlie the best last race Equibase Figure in the field 113 which, if repeated, would make him very tough to beat. That is, if Speaker's Corner and Americanrevolution don't continue their patterns of improvement and run faster.

Midnight Bourbon has only won two of 11 career races, finishing second in four others. The best of those four came in his most recent race last month in the Travers. After leading from the start in an otherwise paceless race, Midnight Bourbon dug in and went head-and-head with Essential Quality for the entire last eighth of a mile, coming up a neck short and earning a 109 figure. Certainly if he can repeat that effort in the Pennsylvania Derby, Midnight Bourbon could be in the thick of the action at the finish.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Bourbonic (100), Fulsome (102), I Am Redeemed (111), Keepmeinmind (106) and Weyburn (109).

Win contenders:
Speaker's Corner
Americanrevolution
Hot Rod Charlie

Must use on exacta tickets and could possibly win:
Midnight Bourbon

Pennsylvania Derby – Grade 1
Race 12 at Parx Racing
Saturday September 25 – Post Time 5:49 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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Equibase Analysis: Ride A Comet Gets Slight Edge In Woodbine Mile

Saturday's 2021 edition of the Grade 1, $1 million Ricoh Woodbine Mile brings together a stellar 10 horse field vying for the winner's share of the $1 million in prize money as well as an automatic entry into the Breeders' Cup Mile.

In terms of the strongest recent form, Olympic Runner deserves mentioning first as he comes into the race off a win in the G2 King Edward Stakes over the same mile trip last month. Town Cruise led from the start in the King Edward and will likely be the pacesetter from the moment the gate opens once again. King Edward third place finisher March to the Arch, who finished second in the Woodbine Mile last year, is also a contender. Avie's Flatter won the G2 Connaught Cup Stakes at the shorter distance of seven furlongs at Woodbine in July then finished a close-up fourth in the King Edward.

Set Piece (GB) is another who is in top form, having won three stakes races on grass in a row before a runner-up effort in the G1 Fourstardave at Saratoga one day before the King Edward was run at Woodbine. Ride a Comet finished third in the Wise Dan Stakes in June when last seen, that race won by Set Piece (GB), and won the G3 Tropical Turf Stakes in January at a mile on grass. Also deserving of consideration is Raging Bull (FR), a Chad Brown trainee who leads the field in career earnings at $1.5 million and who finished a troubled fourth in the 2019 Woodbine Mile, since winning the G1 Maker's Mark Mile in April.

European imports Duke of Hazzard (FR) and Space Traveller (GB) try their hand here. Duke of Hazzard (FR) has not won a race since August of 2019 when victorious in the G2 Celebration Mile Stakes at Royal Ascot. Space Traveller (GB) shipped across the pond to run in the G1 Mr. D. Stakes (formerly the Arlington Million) last month, rallying from last to finish fourth.

Change of Control rounds out the field. She's the only female in the race and her most recent success came in the G3 Intercontinental Stakes in June at seven furlongs on turf.

Very small lines in the sand separate a number of these horses in terms of their probability for success in this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile, but I'll start with Ride a Comet as the one I think can get the job done. Winner of five races from 10 career turf starts, Ride a Comet is a perfect two-for-two when running on the Woodbine grass. He's also a perfect two-for-two on the Woodbine main track, which is the all-weather Tapeta surface.

The most recent of Ride A Comet's wins at Woodbine came last November, in the Kennedy Road Stakes, which was his second start following 13 months off and the second of three wins in a row. The win that followed was the best effort of his career, this past January when victorious in the Tropical Turf Stakes at the mile trip of the Woodbine Mile. That effort earned a career-best 117 ™ Equibase Speed Figure which is on par with the 117 figure earned by 2020 Woodbine Mile winner Starship Jubilee and the 116 figure earned by 2019 winner El Tormenta. Earlier this year, Ride a Comet finished second behind Raging Bull (FR) in the Maker's Mark Mile in a very strong field of nine and after going seven paths wide into the stretch.

Most recently, Ride a Comet finished third in the Wise Dan Stakes, won by Set Piece (GB), who returned to finish strongly for second in the Fourstardave Handicap last month. Better still, the Wise Dan turned out to be a very productive “KEY” race from which the runner-up finished second in the Mint Million Stakes last month the fourth place finisher won the Baltimore/Washington International, the fifth and sixth place finishers returned to run second in stakes and the eighth place horse came back to win a stakes race on the grass. As such, all signs point to Ride a Comet improving markedly out of the Wise Dan and if he repeats his Tropical Turf Stakes effort he can post the upset win in this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

Set Piece (GB) has run five “A” races in a row consisting of three winning efforts and two runner-up finishes. The best of those in terms of finish came when winning the Wise Dan in June, but the best in terms of how fast he ran was when earning a 116 ™ Figure winning the Opening Verse Stakes in April at this one mile turf trip, the first of three straight stakes wins before a big second place effort rallying from last of eight in the Fourstardave Handicap last month behind the incomparable mare Got Stormy, who finished second (beaten just a half-length) in the 2019 Woodbine Mile.

One of the key elements which suggest Set Piece (GB), as well as Ride a Comet, can repeat their best recent efforts in this race is the fact that both have run their last five races without Lasix, which they will not be using in this event whereas four of the other top contenders will be racing without Lasix after running with it in their recent efforts in similar races. Set Piece (GB) has won nine of 17 races in his career including four of five on turf and gets the services of Joel Rosario, who comes off a strong performance at the tough Kentucky Downs meeting, winning seven of 30 starts and in many of those races showing tremendous riding skills skimming the rail to victory.

Space Traveller (GB) is an “X Factor” and likely to be a long shot in this race. He's won five of 20 races in his career, all on turf, including two at this mile trip. His biggest win came in the G2 Boomerang Solonaway Stakes two years ago this week, earning a 111 figure in the process at this distance and on a left handed course like the one at Woodbine. Since then, Space Traveller (GB) has won only one of seven, but two of those were notable. The first of the two came this past June when winning the Sky Bet Ganton Stakes in Great Britain after trailing early and at one mile on a left handed course. The second came just last month when rallying from last of eight to get fourth in the Mr. D. Stakes at a mile and one-quarter, which he had never run previously.

I believe that race was a prep for the Woodbine Mile and the cut back in distance will serve Space Traveller (GB) very well by providing him with a lot of late energy at this shorter trip. Perhaps most notable was the fact in the Mr. D., Space Traveller (GB) was pinched back at the start and did not appreciate that so was rank (upset) for the first part of the race. After relaxing, when asked to run he had no room then when finding room late and allowed to stretch his legs, Space Traveller (GB) did just that but it was too late. Jockey Daniel Tudhope comes back from Europe to ride the horse once again and rode him to four of his five career wins, suggesting Space Traveller (GB) can run a lot better than his high odds suggest he will.

Olympic Runner and Raging Bull (FR) also deserve mention. Olympic Runner has won just one of seven career starts on the Woodbine turf course but his most recent was his best yet as it came in the very similar King Edward Stakes last month, earning a 111 figure in the process. Olympic Runner missed by a neck in the Canadian Turf Stakes this past February with a 113 figure and without Lasix but his two most recent efforts, including a neck defeat behind Avie's Flatter in the Connaught Cup Stakes, were with Lasix.

Raging Bull (FR) likely would have finished much better than fourth in the 2019 Woodbine Mile if not for significant traffic trouble. He was moved up to third via disqualification of the original third place finisher and earned a 114 figure. This year Raging Bull (FR) won the similar Maker's Mark Mile in April before missing by a head in the Poker Stakes then a more lackluster effort when sixth as the even money favorite in the Fourstardave. With world-class jockey Frankie Dettori riding, Raging Bull (FR) might have a say in the outcome of this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Avie's Flatter (113), Change of Control (102), Duke of Hazzard (FR) (114), March to the Arch (115) and Town Cruise (109).

Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Ride a Comet
Set Piece (GB)
Space Traveller (GB)

Ricoh Woodbine Mile – Grade 1
Race 10 at Woodbine
Saturday, Sept. 18 – Post Time 6:12 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

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Equibase Analysis: Tide Of The Sea Could Lead A Merry Chase In Calumet Turf Cup

The Grade 2, $1 million Calumet Turf Cup Stakes this Saturday at Kentucky Downs drew a full field of 12, plus four also-eligibles, all vying to win an automatic entry into the Breeders' Cup Turf in November.

Arklow, who won the race in 2018 and 2020, is back, as is 2019 Turf Cup winner Zulu Alpha. Channel Cat won the 2018 Dueling Grounds Derby on the course and has not run over it since but won the Grade 1 Man O'War Stakes in May. Arklow won the Grade 3 Louisville Stakes in May at this marathon 12 furlong trip but has not threatened in two similar races since then. Similarly, Zulu Alpha, who finished third behind Arklow last year, has run poorly in both starts in 2021.

Imperador most recently finished second in the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes at the distance of one mile and three-eighths but has never finished in the top three in two races at this distance. Bluegrass Parkway is one of five horses in the Turf Cup trained by Mike Maker (plus one of the four also-eligibles) and just won the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup Stakes at the distance of one mile and one-quarter but has never run this far. Then there's Tide of the Sea, another of the Maker trainees, who won the Grade 3 William L. McKnight Stakes in January and who could be the one in front from the start.

Fantasioso could be a factor in the Turf Cup as he finished second this past June in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup at the distance of two miles on turf. Similarly, Ajourneytofreedom (another trained by Maker) missed by a neck in the Grade 3 John B. Connally Stakes at the distance in January and is another who, if able to repeat his best effort in a stakes race similar to this one, could have a say in the outcome. Breakpoint won the Group 1 El Ensayo Stakes in his Chilean homeland last December. That race carried a $150,000 purse and is one of the biggest in South American racing so he could fit as a contender in this field.

Crossfirehurricane, Epic Bromance and Glynn County round out the main body of the field, while Artemus Eagle, Big Dreaming, Dynadrive and Time for Trouble are the also-eligibles who can run if any of the horses in the main body of the race withdraw.

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Main contenders:

Tide of the Sea moved from the barn of Bill Mott to Mike Maker's care between his starts in August, 2019 and June, 2020. Since then he has won three times and finished second four other times in 11 races. The best of those in terms of his ™ Equibase® Speed Figures was last October at Keeneland when, at the distance of the Turf Cup, Tide of the Sea led from start to finish to earn a 107 figure. Two races later Tide of the Sea won the William L. McKnight Stakes in January at the 12 furlong distance of this race, then three races later he led from the start and settled for second in the Grand Couturier Stakes on turf the Turf Cup distance.

The key to the most successful finishes for Tide of the Sea came when he was sent to the lead from the start, resulting in all three of his wins in the last year. Jockey Luis Saez, fresh off winning the Saratoga 2021 riding title, has ridden Tide of the Sea just once previously, in the Grand Couturier, when Saez was aggressive from the opening of the gate and a race in which although Tide of the Sea was passed late, he was beaten by Gufo, who went on to win the Grade 1 Sword Dancer Stakes four weeks later. In this year's Turf Cup, I expect Saez to be equally aggressive from the start, and with no other true “need the lead” type in the field, Tide of the Sea can post the mild upset to win this race.

Ajourneytofreedom and Glynn County both appear capable of winning if Tide of the Sea can't go all the way in front. They're both also trained by Mike Maker, with Glynn County owned by Three Diamonds Farm, who owns Tide of the Sea. The most recent race in which Ajourneytofreedom tried this marathon turf trip was in mid-July at Saratoga when, after relaxing in sixth (of seven) for the first mile and one-quarter, Ajourneytofreedom moved decisively from fifth, then to fourth, then to the lead, eventually winning by a neck. That effort earned a 111 ™ figure not far from his best, a 113 figure earned when missing by a neck in the similar John B. Connally Stakes in January. With the second leading jockey in all of North America, Irad Ortiz, Jr., getting aboard Ajourneytofreedom for the first time, if the horse can stay close to Tide of the Sea and Channel Cat in the early stages, he could repeat either of those efforts in representative races to win.

Glynn County also recently won at this mile and one-half turf trip, in June, with a similar effort to the one Ajourneytofreedom put forth in July. In that race, Glynn County sat in fourth in the early stages then rallied to win by a couple of lengths with a quick burst of speed. That effort only earned a 103 ™ figure which was exceeded two races later when the colt earned a career best 109 figure finishing third in the Mr. D Stakes (formerly the Arlington Million) at the shorter distance of a mile and one quarter. Back to the longer trip, Glynn County could be the one passing stablemate Tide of the Sea for the score.

Secondary contenders:

Dynadrive will need help from one or more horses withdrawing from the 12 horse main body of the field to run in the Turf Cup as he is on the also-eligible list, but he must be given some consideration if he does run. First or second in 11 of 17 races, Dynadrive joined the Maker barn last October via a $50,000 claim. His best efforts came in his last two starts when second then first, the latter of the two earning a 104 figure which can be improved upon as Jose Ortiz rides back following being in the saddle for the very first time. Although the win in August in his most recent race came at the distance of a mile and one quarter, Dynadrive is bred to handle this mile and one-half trip and is another who can lay close to the likely slow early pace and be in the picture at the wire.

Bluegrass Parkway just won the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup Stakes at Ellis Park, the same race Arklow used as a prep to win the Turf Cup in 2018. The effort earned Bluegrass Parkway a career best 105 figure and considering it was only the horse's fourth start since joining the powerful Maker barn and considering jockey Julien Leparoux rides him right back there's a chance he can run much better than his high odds will suggest is possible.

As to the three horses which may be favored by bettors, I feel they have less chance to win then their odds make it appear and for the most part I am going to take a stand against them winning. Arklow, who won this race in 2018 as a four year old and last year as a six year old (with a 116 figure), does not appear to be entering this year's Turf Cup in the same form, having finished sixth in the United Nations Stakes in July and seventh last month in the Del Mar Handicap. 2019 Turf Cup winner Zulu Alpha is now an eight year old, is winless since July of 2020 and has finished third, fifth and seventh in his three starts since then. However, it must be noted that the best of the three was in last year's Turf Cup where Zulu Alpha finished third with a 114 figure. Channel Cat, who won the Dueling Grounds Derby (one mile and five-sixteenths) as a three year old in 2018, has a bit more chance to win as compared to Arklow and Zulu Alpha as he won the Man O'War Stakes in May with a 113 figure. However, not only has he run poorly in two races since the Man O'War when finishing seventh and fourth, Channel Cat may not be as good as this mile and one-half distance as he is a one mile and three-eighths, with his record at this trip just 1-1-1 in seven starts.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Breakpoint (CHI) (109), Crossfirehurricane (106), Epic Bromance (100), Fantasioso (ARG) (115) and Imperador (ARG) (114), plus also-eligibles Artemus Eagle (101), Big Dreaming (106) and Time for Trouble (103)

Main Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Tide of the Sea
Ajourneytofreedom
Glynn County
Dynadrive

Calumet Turf Cup Stakes – Grade 2
Race 9 at Kentucky Downs
Saturday, Sept. 11 – Post Time 5:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and One-Half on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

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Wagering Figures Up from 2020

Wagering on U.S. races through the first eight months of the year is up 17.51% over the same period in 2020, with $8,585,662,502 wagered on races in the country through August compared to $7,306,542,949 in 2020, according to figures released Sunday by Equibase.

Purses rose 44.77%, from $518,929,044 in 2020 to $751,230,068 this year, while race dates increased from 2,144 to 2,781 and number of races increased from 17,794 to 22,862.

During the month of August, a total of $1,206,119,197 was wagered on 455 race days and 3,539 races in 2021.

In August 2020, $1,153,994,899 was wagered on 445 race days and 3,608 races.

Purses rose 20.12% for the month, from $104,539,502 in 2020 to $125,575,863 this year.

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