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Equibase Analysis: Keeper Ofthe Stars Able To Best Male Rivals In San Francisco Mile

This Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 San Francisco Mile Stakes is a regularly anticipated feature during the Golden Gate Fields spring meeting. Not only is it a graded stakes with a quarter million dollar purse, it's sandwiched between a great trio of races with the California Derby preceding and the California Oaks following this race.

Five of the eight entrants in this year's San Francisco Mile ship up from Santa Anita in anticipation of victory. Among that group, the mare Keeper Ofthe Stars has some of the best credentials, having won the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes last May. She also sports a perfect three-for-three record on the Golden Gate turf course.

Ohio has won 11 races in his career for $639,298 in lifetime earnings, a good portion of that when winning the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile in March of 2019. Restrainedvengence has banked $642,182 to lead the field in earnings, his wins including the Downs at Albuquerque Handicap last September.

Kiwi's Dream missed by a head when second in last year's San Francisco Mile and is a horse which has led through the opening half-mile in each of his last seven races. Whisper Not finished third in the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile last December and enters the race off a sharp win at Santa Anita. Border Town finished third in the Grade 3 Thunder Road Stakes in February. Brown Storm is winless in six races since coming to the U.S. from South America and like Kiwi's Dream appears to be a need-the-lead type, as does Diamond Blitz, who is stepping way up in class after facing claiming level horses for the past two years.

Keeper Ofthe Stars checks all the boxes when it comes to predicting which horse has the highest probability to win this year's San Francisco Mile Stakes. A winner of six of 13 career starts on turf, the mare beat some of the top fillies and mares in the U.S. last year twice in a row, first when winning the Buena Vista Stakes in February at this mile trip with a 112 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure and second when taking the Gamely Stakes last May with a career-best 115 figure. After a couple of disappointing efforts in June and August, Keeper Ofthe Stars was given time off, returning in top form following eight months off to win on the Golden Gate turf three weeks ago. Having put together back-to-back wins twice in the last 18 months and with a lot of improving to do physically in her second start back from a layoff, this mare (who gets a five pound weight break versus her male rivals) is the one to beat.

Ohio also enters this race off a sharp effort in victory, winning the Cotton Fitzsimmons Mile Handicap at Turf Paradise for the third year in a row. With that win, Ohio brought his record at one mile on turf to seven for 20, including when victorious in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita in March, 2019, with a career best 119 figure. In the fall of that year, Ohio finished second in the Berkeley Handicap at Golden Gate. His win in the Fitzsimmons Stakes came in his second start back following 10 months off so like Keeper Ofthe Stars, Ohio can be expected to improve off the 104 figure earned last time out and could give Keeper Ofthe Stars all she can handle in the stretch run.

Restrainedvengence is certainly no slouch, having earned more than any other horse in the field. His best effort may have been when beaten a head in the City of Hope Mile at Santa Anita in the fall of 2019 where he earned a 113 ™ figure, but he also ran just as well when capturing the All American Stakes last May at Golden Gate with a 112 figure. Like the other two top contenders, Restrainedvengence is likely to improve, having returned from five months off in March when sixth then running a much better race last month when second in the Santana Mile Stakes. Although he finished fourth in last year's San Francisco Mile, Restrainedvengence won his only other start on the Golden Gate turf course and must be respected as a contender to win in this year's race.

The rest of the field, with their best representative ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Border Town (109), Brown Storm (105), Diamond Blitz (96), Kiwi's Dream (112) and Whisper Not (109).

Win Contenders:
Keeper Ofthe Stars
Ohio (BRZ)
Restrainedvengence

San Francisco Mile Stakes – Grade 3
Race 9 at Golden Gate Fields
Saturday, April 24 – Post Time 7:45 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Three Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $250,000

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Equibase Analysis: Monarch’s Glen Poised To Upset Elkhorn For Maker

Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Elkhorn Stakes is one of two marathon 1 1/2-mile graded stakes during the Keeneland spring meeting. This race is for males and the Bewitch Stakes next week is for females. Ten horses entered the Elkhorn this year and most have top credentials in similar races.

In terms of career earnings, the field is led by Channel Cat, winner of over $950,000 in his career in similar races. However, the now 6-year-old is returning from three months off and hasn't won since taking the Grade 2 Bowling Green Stakes in August of 2019. Similarly, Cross Border has earned in excess of three-quarters of a million dollars but hasn't won since last July when victorious in the Lubash Stakes. Next there's 2019 Elkhorn runner-up Red Knight, who also captured the similar Grade 3 Sycamore Stakes at Keeneland last fall, and is returning from a five month layoff.

Say the Word has run much more recently than Channel Cat and Red Knight as he was beaten less than one length when second in the Grade 3 San Luis Rey Stakes. Another horse worth noting is Tide of the Sea, who won the Grade 2 William L. McKnight Stakes in January before a runner-up effort in the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida Stakes in February. North Dakota proved capable against similar horses when capturing the Grade 3 Red Smith Stakes last November. A newcomer to marathon stakes on turf is Monarch's Glen, a recent acquisition by trainer Mike Maker, who saddled the winner of the Elkhorn in 2016, 2019, and last year.

Fantasioso makes his U.S. debut after importing from his native Argentina, where he won five of 23 races and was second in six others. Epic Bromance is trying stakes competition for the first time off a wire-to-wire win at 11 furlongs last month. Crafty Daddy rounds out the field, having returned from four months off at the end of March to finish third in the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes. He has never run farther than a mile and one-eighth whereas most of the others are proven at this distance.

Trainer Mike Maker has become well-known the past few years for winning these kinds of long turf races, and his record at Keeneland particularly bears that out. A STATS Race Lens query looking at Maker's record on turf at Keeneland reveals he has saddled three of the last six winners of the Elkhorn Stakes, as well as one of the winners in the fall equivalent of this race, the Sycamore Stakes.

Maker has three entrants in this race in the form of Cross Border, Monarchs Glen (GB) and Tide of the Sea, and of the trio I fancy Monarchs Glen more than the other two, particularly as I suspect he will go to post at the highest odds of the three. Monarchs Glen won five of 11 races in the U.K. and Dubai before importing to the U.S. in the spring of 2019. He was so well regarded in Europe that in his final start, in the fall of 2018, he ran in the Group 1 ($1.7 million) Qipco Champion Stakes against Cracksman and Crystal Ocean. Since then he won just one of 12 U.S. starts before being entered into a $75,000 claiming race this January. Claimed out of a third place effort in that race, Monarchs Glen finished ninth and fourth before being claimed once more, this time by Mike Maker.

The fact that the horse was claimed for $62,500 out of his most recent start and can earn the winner's share of $120,000 may be incentive enough to think Maker capable of winning this race again, but recalling 2019 Sycamore winner Marzo was a recent claim before the victory by Maker, as well as many of Maker's other stakes winners were acquisitions where he saw something other trainers had missed, makes me believe Monarchs Glen can run well although he's never raced this far.

Being by champion Frankel out of a Lear Fan mare is the reason I believe this trip is what he wants. Additionally, the 110 Equibase Speed Figure he earned winning last November matching the figures of horses already proven at the level such as Say the Word (111) and Red Knight (114) so he may only need to repeat his best effort to post the upset win.

Say the Word won the Northern Dancer Stakes at this 12 furlong turf trip last November, certainly the biggest win of his career to that point. Three races later and after moving to the barn of trainer Phil D'Amato in California, Say the Word once again ran a big race, missing by three-quarters of a length to multiple grade stakes winner United in the San Luis Rey Stakes. With the meet's leading jockey in Luis Saez getting on and with a career-best 111 Equibase Figure from his most recent race to repeat or improve upon, Say the Word would be no surprise if he was right in the thick of the action on the wire.

Red Knight fits perfectly here with one small exception and that is he hasn't raced since November. On the other hand, Red Knight finished second of 10 last September in the Kentucky Turf Cup following more than seven months off. Following that effort, Red Knight won the Sycamore Stakes at this distance on the Keeneland turf, earning a very strong 114 figure which would make him competitive here if repeated. Jockey James Graham rode Red Knight in the Sycamore, not before or since, and gets back on so that is a positive sign as well.

Honorable mention goes to Tide of the Sea, another horse trained by Mike Maker. Likely to be the early pacesetter, Tide of the Sea used his early speed to win the William L. McKnight Stakes at Gulfstream Park in wire-to-wire fashion in January. However, not only did that effort yield at 104 figure about seven to 10 points lower than the main contenders above, Epic Bromance is another horse in this field who appears to be a need-the-lead type, so I think Tide of the Sea may not get the easy lead he needs to win. Nevertheless, he could be a part of the exacta and finish second at the very least, just as he's done in four of 11 lifetime races.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Channel Cat (111), Crafty Daddy (108), Cross Border (115), Epic Bromance (103), Fantasioso (ARG) (112) and North Dakota (98).

Win Contenders:
Monarch's Glen
Say the Word
Red Knight

Elkhorn Stakes – Grade 2
Race 9 at Keeneland
Saturday, April 17 – Post Time 5:30 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Half on Turf
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $200,000

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Equibase Analysis: Concert Tour Looks Tough To Beat In Arkansas Derby

Following an impressive 4 1/4-length win four weeks ago in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Bob Baffert trained Concert Tour leads a field of six in this Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby. This is the last race of the season to award 100 Road to the Kentucky Derby points to the winner, assuring that horse of a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate in three weeks.

Rebel Stakes runner-up Hozier, also trained by Baffert, looks to be competitive once more. Super Stock and Get Her Number finished fourth and seventh, respectively, in the Rebel and look to improve. Super Stock won the Texas Thoroughbred Futurity last summer and although no worse than fourth in four races since is still winless since then.

Get Her Number was victorious in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes last September then skipped the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and his seventh place Rebel effort was his first start in more than five months. Caddo River was sent to post as the 6 to 5 favorite in the Rebel and faded to fifth after pressing Concert Tour from the start. He won the Smarty Jones Stakes in wire-to-wire fashion prior to that. Last Samurai rounds out the field and was beaten 13 lengths when fifth in the Southwest Stakes in his only stakes try.

Leading the field by what could be a figurative, as well as literal, country mile is Concert Tour, who may have a tactical advantage in the Arkansas Derby in that he can win on the front end or from off the pace. Concert Tour won the San Vicente Stakes at the distance of seven furlongs in February in only the second start of his career, showing a lot of maturity when relaxing in third in the early stages before going by the top two pacesetters for the win. That effort earned a career-best, and field high, 106 Equibase Speed Figure. Then in the Rebel Stakes, jockey Joel Rosario took the racetrack away from favorite Caddo River because in spite of drawing the seven post in the gate, Concert Tour had the lead a few strides after the start and never looked back. The 105 figure earned could have been higher but there was no reason to ask him to run all out in the stretch after opening up by four lengths with no threats behind. Returning to Baffert's Southern California base after the Rebel, Concert Tour has continued to work strongly and could easily handle this field to bring his record to a perfect four-for-four, similar to current early Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality, who won the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes one week ago to bring his record to five-for-five.

Hozier passed five horses in the last half-mile of the Rebel Stakes when rallying from seventh to second and although no match for his stablemate it was a credible effort. He earned an 89 figure one race prior that in his two-turn debut second start of his career and he improved considerably to a 99 figure in the Rebel. Hozier is certainly on a pattern to run even better while gaining the 40 Road to the Derby points for finishing second and enabling him to start in the big dance three weeks from now.

Caddo River may have to choose different tactics than were planned for the Rebel to be successful in the Arkansas Derby in order to win but that may not be out of the question. After winning both route starts wire to wire by an average of almost 10 lengths in November and January, the latter in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn with a 101 figure, Caddo River was just not fast enough to beat Concert Tour to the lead in the Rebel and took up a stalking position he had not previously used in a route race from the start. When asked to move up, Caddo River did not have anything to offer and ended up tiring to fifth of eight at the end, regressing to a 95 figure effort. Drawing inside Concert Tour in the gate once more in the Arkansas Derby, either Caddo River will be more intent on getting the lead from Concert Tour and get as brave as that one did in the Rebel¸ or perhaps this time he may show a finishing kick as he did last fall in the second start of his career, in a sprint, when rallying from third and one length back to make the lead before settling for second. In any event, it may be that even if this colt does run his best race it may not be good enough to beat either of the Baffert trainees.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Get Her Number (92), Last Samurai (84) and Super Stock (95).

Win Contenders:
Concert Tour
Hozier

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Equibase Analysis: Run Classic Poised To Provide Big Upset In Louisiana Derby

This Saturday's Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby is the first “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points system race to offer the winner enough points (100) to guarantee a start in the gate on the first Saturday in May. The winner's share of the $1 million isn't bad either, but in spite of those two incentives only eight horses were entered.

The two most accomplished runners, Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon, have traded wins on the run up to this race. Midnight Bourbon won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January but ended up third in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes four weeks later, that race won by Mandaloun.

Risen Star runner-up Proxy, who also finished second in the Lecomte, will attempt to turn the tables on his rivals. O Besos finished fourth and nearly six lengths behind third place finisher Midnight Bourbon in the Risen Star and may have his work cut out for him, as may both Rightandjust and Starrininmydreams, who finished sixth and ninth, respectively, in the race.

Hot Rod Charlie ships in from California off a big effort when beaten a neck and a nose for the win in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and certainly fits with the best in this field. Last but certainly not least, Run Classic steps into stakes competition off a maiden win over the track in his second career start.

It is still early in the season, so much so that horses which have only run a couple of times can win Kentucky Derby prep races like the Louisiana Derby. This was evidenced last weekend when Concert Tour won the Rebel Stakes in only the third start of his career and his first in a two-turn race. Run Classic has already run two turns so that is not a question and in that regard he is one step further along as compared to Concert Tour. Run Classic debuted in mid-January in a sprint and finished second of 10, earning a 94 Equibase Speed Figure in the process.

Stretched out to a mile and one-sixteenth for career start number two four weeks later, on the same day as the Risen Star, Run Classic stalked the pacesetter while third in the early stages, put in a quick burst to get to the front with an eighth of a mile to go, then coasted home to an easy three and one-quarter length win. Although he earned a 90 figure, I feel he could have run faster if need be.

Putting those figures in perspective, likely Louisiana Derby betting favorite Mandaloun earned a 97 figure winning the Risen Star. Being as Run Classic is more lightly raced he may have more improving to do, as compared to Mandaloun and others already proven competitive in similar races. Specifically, making his third career start and second in a route, Run Classic has a lot of potential to leap frog over the more logical contenders and post the upset to win. That is exactly what By My Standards did to post the upset win in this race in 2019 at odds of 22/1 when winning the race after breaking his maiden in a route over the track one race earlier. By My Standards was trained by Bret Calhoun, who trains Run Classic, and that is precisely why I'm choosing Run Classic to post the upset win in the Louisiana Derby.

Hot Rod Charlie entered the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November off a maiden win in a route. Then in the Juvenile and making his second consecutive start in a dirt route, Hot Rod Charlie finished second at odds of 94 to 1, earning a career-best 100 in the process. Returning for his 3-year-old campaign at the end of January, Hot Rod Charlie proved his Breeders' Cup effort to be no fluke as he closed from fourth after stumbling at the start, missing the win by inches in a three horse photo. The 97 figure earned can logically by improved upon in his second start off a layoff so Hot Rod Charlie deserves strong consideration as a contender to win this race.

Mandaloun won the first two races of his career, both sprints, with a 97 figure in the best of the pair. Stretched out to two-turns for the first time in the Lecomte Stakes, Mandaloun was really no threat for wire-to-wire winner Midnight Bourbon but did finish just a head behind runner-up Proxy, perhaps because the winner got an uncontested lead and also because the winner had the experience of running two-turn races previously. Improving off the experience, Mandaloun turned the tables on Midnight Bourbon to win the Risen Star clearly by one and one- half lengths, equaling the 97 figure earned one month earlier. Since the distance of the Louisiana Derby is only one-sixteenth of a mile farther than the Risen Star, I don't see any issue with Mandaloun running his best here. Whether that best effort is good enough to beat the improving Run Classic and Hot Rod Charlie is the reason why this race will be a great one to watch and wager on.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Midnight Bourbon (99), O Besos (94), Proxy (97), Rightandjust (90) and Starrininmydreams (88).

Win Contenders:
Run Classic
Hot Rod Charlie
Mandaloun

Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby – Grade 2
Race14 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, March 20 – Post Time 6:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Sixteenths
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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