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Equibase Analysis: Going Global Looks Tough To Beat In Honeymoon Stakes

This Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Honeymoon Stakes at Santa Anita brings together a field of seven fillies led by Going Global, who imported from Ireland to the United States this winter after a win and who has since won three straight races at Santa Anita, all stakes, including the Grade 3 Providencia Stakes last month. Another recent stakes winner is Madone, who won the Grade 3 Senorita Stakes three weeks ago. Golden finished second in the Senorita but was disqualified to sixth for interference in the stretch.

Majestic Steps was fifth in the Senorita and placed fourth after being forced to steady with a half-mile to go. She won in her U.S. debut in January but is winless in four races since then. Quattroelle finished fifth in the Providencia but won the Blue Norther Stakes last December. Pizzazz just won the California Oaks Stakes on all-weather at Golden Gate and finished third behind Madone in the Surfer Girl Stakes last fall. Last but not least is Midnight Diva, who earned her first career win in her fifth career start last month and did so at the distance of the Honeymoon Stakes.

Going Global beat 13 horses in a handicap race last November in her native Ireland, although still a maiden, before taking three months off to acclimate to her new surroundings in the United States. Debuting in mid-February, Going Global won the Sweet Life Stakes, a sprint, earning a career-best 99 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure in the process. Stretching out to two-turns, Going Global won both the China Doll Stakes and Providencia Stakes, the latter effort tying the 99 figure earned two months earlier. Jockey Flavien Prat has been aboard for all three local starts to date and rides back in the Honeymoon Stakes so it appears Going Global will be tough to keep from winning her fifth race in a row.

Golden showed a lot of ability in January in only the second start of her career when rallying strongly from sixth to win going away. Following a poor fifth place effort in March, Golden lagged far back in the early stages of the Senorita Stakes last month and was full of run on the turn when going from 10th to 5th with an eighth of a mile to go. At that point the filly shifted out and found a seam, rallying to get second at the finish line one length from winner Madone. However, the stewards ruled she had interfered with another horse and so she was disqualified and placed sixth. With a jockey change to Umberto Rispoli and a career-best 87 ™ figure to improve upon from the Senorita, Golden has an upset chance in the Honeymoon Stakes.

Madone won the first three starts of her career in the summer and fall of last year. Two of those wins came in stakes races including the Surfer Girl Stakes at Santa Anita. In the Surfer Girl Madone earned a strong 93 figure. After trying some of the top two year old fillies on turf and finishing eighth of 14 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in November, Madone was given time off to mature. Returning to the races three weeks ago as if she had never been away for six months, Madone won the Senorita Stakes even after stumbling at the start to be away last of 10. In the Senorita Madone earned an 89 figure. Jockey Juan Hernandez, who is the second leading jockey (behind Flavien Prat) at the Santa Anita meeting, rode Madone for the first time in the Senorita. He rides again in the Honeymoon so we can expect another big effort, potentially good enough to win, particularly if the filly logically improves in her second start following the long layoff.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Majestic Steps (92), Midnight Diva (91), Pizzazz (89) and Quattroelle (93).

Win Contenders:
Going Global
Golden
Madone

Honeymoon Stakes – Grade 3
Race 7 at Santa Anita
Saturday, May 22 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth on Turf
Fillies, Three Years Old
Purse: $100,000

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Equibase Analysis: Midnight Bourbon Poised To Upset Preakness

Back in its traditional place two weeks following the Kentucky Derby and on the third Saturday in May, the 146th running of the Grade 1, $1 million Preakness Stakes drew a field of 10. Only three of the group participated in the Kentucky Derby on May 1, including winner Medina Spirit, who led every step of the way in that mile and one-quarter test.

The other two returning from the Derby are Midnight Bourbon and Keepmeinmind, who finished sixth and seventh, respectively, in the race. Prior to the Derby, Midnight Bourbon won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes before in-the-money finishes in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Keepmeinmind was winless in two races this year before the Derby but won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November.

Concert Tour, who like Medina Spirit is trained by Bob Baffert, won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes before a disappointing third-place effort as the betting favorite in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Chad Brown saddles Crowded Trade and Risk Taking in the Preakness. Both were last seen in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial in early April but passed the Derby after finishing third and seventh, respectively, in the Wood.

Unbridled Honor finished fast – from last of nine to end up second – in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes last month and has been waiting for this race ever since as he did not have enough points to enter the Derby. Likewise, Rombauer has been sitting on the sidelines since a third-place finish in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes last month following a win in the El Camino Real Derby.

France Go de Ina is an entirely new face on the scene. He is a Kentucky bred who has raced in Japan and in Dubai, most recently finishing sixth in the Group 2 United Arab Emirates Derby in March. Ram, who enters the race off an allowance level win and who is racing in a stakes race for the first time, is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who has won the Preakness six times, most recently with Oxbow in 2013.

Midnight Bourbon will be my top choice to win this year's Preakness, the reasoning being what happened, or more appropriately what did not happen, in the Kentucky Derby. According to statements made prior to the Derby, the plan was to send Midnight Bourbon to the lead at the start. This plan was quickly put to rest right out of the gate as the horse was bumped and found himself far back, eventually rallying to finish sixth in the 19 horse field, tying his career-best 99 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure earned in January.

That strategy, if able to be applied, may have worked well given Midnight Bourbon had raced close up in the Louisiana Derby when he finished second to Hot Rod Charlie (who ended up third in the Kentucky Derby), and as Midnight Bourbon had also raced in second early in the Risen Star Stakes, eventually finishing third. Mandaloun won the Risen Star and was the runner-up in the Kentucky Derby. In his first start as a 3-year-old, Midnight Bourbon won the Lecomte Stakes (with a 99 Equibase Figure) when leading from start to finish, which were exactly the tactics Medina Spirit used in winning the Kentucky Derby. With a jockey change to Irad Ortiz, Jr., the North American leading jockey of 2020 and who is once again leading the standings this year, Midnight Bourbon may get a forward position from the start in the Preakness which would enable him to run his best race of the year and post the mild upset.

Medina Spirit took the lead and took control at the start of the Kentucky Derby, getting into a steady stride and holding off all challengers in the last quarter mile before pulling away slightly in the late stages to win by a half-length. The effort earned a career-best 110 ™ E® Figure which is eight points (about five lengths) better as compared to any other horse in the Preakness field. Prior to that Medina Spirit earned 97, 98 and 97 figures winning or finishing second in all three Derby prep races in California, including when second in the Santa Anita Derby.

It is very interesting to note that in most of his races, Medina Spirit has never been passed by another horse in the final quarter mile and that is a testament to his mental toughness. On the other hand, although he did win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on the lead from the start as he did in the Derby, prior to that Medina Spirit ran second from start to finish in the Sham Stakes and second or third for the majority of the race in both the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby. I can't say for certain if this is an indication Medina Spirit doesn't want to pass other horses, that he can't pass other horses because he doesn't have a second gear, or that is just the way these races played out which, once again leads back to the fact in the Derby he refused to let another horse pass him. As such, Medina Spirit must be respected as a logical contender to win the Preakness although as the likely prohibitive favorite, I think Midnight Bourbon and Unbridled Honor offer more value.

Unbridled Honor took three tries to earn his first career win. That win came in February at Tampa Bay Downs and was followed by a fourth of 12 finish in the Tampa Bay Derby. Entering the Lexington Stakes on April 10, Unbridled Honor dropped back to last in the field of nine and began running in earnest with a quarter mile to run. Going four paths wide on the far turn, Unbridled Honor closed second fastest of all to finish second as winner King Fury was well in front by the time the field hit the stretch. The Lexington Stakes ended at the first of two finish lines at Keeneland so Unbridled Honor didn't have the full length of the stretch to continue his rally. In spite of that, Unbridled Honor earned a career-best 99 ™ figure which is as good as the figures Medina Spirit earned in his last three races before the Derby and as good as the figure Midnight Bourbon earned in the Derby. Additionally, the Preakness utilizes the entire length of the stretch as opposed to the Lexington so although Unbridled Honor may be last of 10 in the early stages, if there is a contested battle for the front from the start, he could be passing most if not all of the field for the win.

The rest of the Preakness Stakes field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures is Concert Tour (105), Crowded Trade (105), France Go do Ina ( ), Keepmeinmind (99), Ram (88), Risk Taking (102) and Rombauer (100).

Win contenders:
Midnight Bourbon
Medina Spirit
Unbridled Honor

Preakness Stakes – Grade 1
Race 13 at Pimlico
Saturday, May 15 – Post Time 6:47 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Sixteenths
For Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million
TV: NBC 4:00 – 7:00 PM ET

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Pimlico on Preakness Stakes Day – Saturday, May 15 at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and most online wagering sites.

The post Equibase Analysis: Midnight Bourbon Poised To Upset Preakness appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Equibase Analysis: Comebacking Gufo Well-Spotted In Man O’ War

Saturday's Grade 1, $700,000 Man o' War Stakes at Belmont Park drew a field of eight top level marathon turf runners with seven having proven competitive at this level in races around North America. Then there's Sovereign, making his North American debut and returning to the races after last racing in November. Sovereign has earned $1.14 million in his career, top in this field, the bulk of that when winning the Group 1 Irish Derby in the summer of 2019.

Next in terms of earnings is Channel Cat, who won the Grade 2 Bowling Green Stakes in the summer of 2019 as well and who finished second in the Grade 2 Elkhorn Stakes in his most recent race. Another horse which earned a big win in 2019 but not since is Ziyad, who was victorious in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Deauville in August of that year. He makes his third start in the U.S. since importing last fall and has two third place efforts since then. Gufo won the Grade 1 Belmont Derby over this course last fall and just missed in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby before taking time off, returning for his 2021 debut in this race.

Moon Over Miami won the Dueling Grounds Derby last summer, a race which doesn't yet carry a graded designation but with a seven-hundred thousand dollar purse similar to that of the Man o' War. Field Pass won the Grade 3 Ontario Derby and the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes last year and makes his second start of 2021 following a fourth place effort in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile. Shamrocket has two wins in 13 career races, none in a stakes race although he was third in the Dueling Grounds Derby last summer. So High rounds out the field and is running in a stakes race for the first time while still eligible for allowance races.

Gufo returns to racing following five months off but that is of no concern when coming back in a marathon on turf like the Man o' War Stakes. Gufo won the second through fifth starts of his career starting in December, 2019, through July of last year when taking the Kent Stakes, then just missed by a head in the $500,000 Saratoga Derby Invitational in August. Next, in his first and only start on the Belmont turf, Gufo won the Belmont Derby in October with a 104 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure which was very strong for a 3-year-old.

In his final race of the year, Gufo was exceptionally game when rallying from last of 11 to be in a three horse photo on the wire, losing by a head and a neck with a 107 figure. The horses which beat him that day, Domestic Spending and Smooth Like Strait, are near the top of the turf division in North America having just finished first (in a dead heat) and third last weekend in the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes. Now a more physically mature 4-year-old, Gufo should run even better than he did last year and that makes him the one to beat in this year's Man o' War Stakes.

Field Pass is also a 4-year-old and has a similar pattern to Gufo which suggests he could run a big race in this situation. Last summer, Field Pass proved his stakes quality when winning the Audubon Stakes and Transylvania Stakes in succession. In October, Field Pass earned a career-best figures of 109 when third in the Twilight Derby, won by Smooth Like Strait (who finished third in the Turf Classic last weekend). After winning the Ontario Derby on all-weather in November with a new career-best 110 figure, Field Pass finished fourth in the Mathis Brothers Mile Stakes (won by Smooth like Strait) before resting to begin his 2021 campaign.

In his comeback race last month, Field Pass was not disgraced when finishing fourth of nine in the Maker's Mark Mile and appears very well spotted to improve considerably in his second start of the year to be a factor in this race. Although he's never run this far, as a son of Lemon Drop Kid he should have no problem successfully running the distance because a STATS Race Lens query reveals the sire has produced four top graded stakes winners at similar distances.

Sovereign has been working steadily in Florida and New York for his U. S. debut. He is now in the barn of top trainer Chad Brown, who has a very strong knack with having his horses coming back from layoffs and making their U.S. debuts in top shape. A STATS Race Lens query reveals over the last five years, Brown has won with six of 22 (27%) similar starters in graded stakes. Sovereign earned the biggest win of his career when winning the Irish Derby in 2019 easily by six lengths. Since then, Sovereign has finished second or third in five races. One of those was when second to the incomparable mare Enable in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes last summer at Ascot, an effort which earned a 117 figure good enough to win the Man o' War if repeated.

Honorable mention has to go to Ziyad, who earned a 111 figure last October in his U.S. debut when third and beaten just two lengths in the Sycamore Stakes. Similarly, Channel Cat earned a 115 figure last month when second in the mile and one-half Elkhorn Stakes. As such I wouldn't argue with anyone who considered them contenders to win this race.

Also, Moon over Miami earned a decent 109 figure when second in the Pan American Stakes at a mile and one-half at the end of March and may fit as a contender as well. I don't feel the same way about Shamrocket, who although earning a 109 figure at the end of March did so at a mile and one-eighth and in a non-graded stakes so appears a bit overmatched. So High is definitely overmatched in this field as his best effort earned an 89 figure and he is still eligible for the first allowance condition as well as was running in a claiming level race as recently as December.

Win Contenders:
Gufo
Field Pass
Sovereign (IRE)

Man o' War Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Belmont
Saturday, May 8 – Post Time 5:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Eighths on Turf
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $700,000

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Equibase Analysis: Rock Your World, Known Agenda Poised To Upset Essential Quality In Kentucky Derby

Back at its traditional place on the calendar on the first Saturday in May and using the new 20 horse gate for only the second time in Kentucky Derby history, the 147th running of the Grade 1, $3 million Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve is expected to be a very competitive event. Among the 20 entrants, only four have won two or more consecutive races leading to the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports.”

One of those is Essential Quality, who is undefeated in five races including the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall and most recently the Grade 2 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Rock Your World is another undefeated colt, having won his first two races on grass before a consummate four and one-quarter length victory in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby last month on dirt. Another top quality colt sporting two straight wins is Known Agenda, easy winner of the Grade 1 Florida Derby five weeks ago.

Super Stock won another of the major prep races when victorious in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby four weeks ago. Bourbonic posted the 72 to 1 upset in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on the first Saturday in April, and Helium won the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby on the first Saturday in March but has not raced since. Another horse away from the races a bit more than some of the others is Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie. The Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks was won by Like the King near the end of March, while King Fury won the final prep of the season, the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes, three weeks ago.

In addition to those Derby prep race winners, six horses which finished second in those major races, some by inches, are trying to turn the tables on their foes. That list consists of Dynamic One (Wood Memorial), Highly Motivated (Blue Grass), Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby), Midnight Bourbon (Louisiana Derby), Sainthood (Jeff Ruby) and Soup and Sandwich (Florida Derby).

O Besos finished fourth in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and third in the Louisiana Derby and hopes to improve, as does Wood Memorial fifth place finisher Brooklyn Strong and Louisiana Derby sixth place finisher Mandaloun, who had won the Risen Star prior to that. The field is completed by Hidden Stash and Keepmeinmind, who were most recently fourth and fifth, respectively, in the Blue Grass.

It is with some handicapping liberty every year I will delineate six horses that have the bulk of the probability to win the Kentucky Derby. Some will have a larger chance to win than others, but some of those with a lesser chance may offer a lot more return for the risk when betting and are certainly not out of the question. For this year's Derby the top six win contenders, in slight preference order, are Rock Your World, Known Agenda, Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, King Fury and Super Stock.

Rock Your World was bred to adore both turf and dirt. He started his career on the grass, winning with maturity from off the pace in his debut on New Year's Day then going into a stakes race in his next start and winning even more powerfully. Trainer John Sadler has stated, perhaps tongue-in-cheek, the reason for this was to avoid all the fantastically bred 3-year-old colts trained by Bob Baffert which quickly becomes talked about as Derby contenders early in the year. In any event, Rock Your World transitioned to dirt for the third start of his career in the Santa Anita Derby and it was a career-best effort in which he earned a 103 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure.

That's not yet in range of the top contenders in the Derby field, for example Essential Quality (109) and Known Agenda (112), but considering Rock Your World has raced two-three fewer times than those other two horses, it is very likely he can run even faster than he has to date. In the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Your World led from the start and widened in the last quarter mile, but he does not need the lead to win as evidenced by his off-the-pace rallies in the first two starts of his career.

Since the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Your World has put in two sensational five-eighths of a mile workouts in preparation for the race so there can be no doubt he's in tip-top condition. Add to that he has a physical presence, as when getting off the van at Churchill Downs earlier this week and noisily announcing “I'm Here” to anyone who was within earshot. Last, and definitely not least, it must be noted that after he crossed the finish line in the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Your World was not eased up as most horses are. Instead, he was ridden further as if the race was longer in order to remind him of his next task in this mile and one-quarter test that is the Kentucky Derby.

Known Agenda has been a new horse, a phenomenal horse, since blinkers were added one race before last. He won the first race in the new equipment by 11 lengths with a 103 (stakes quality) ™ Figure, though it wasn't a stakes race. Then one month later in the Florida Derby, Known Agenda showed a quick burst of speed with a quarter mile to go when moving from fourth, two and one-half lengths back, to lead entering the stretch. That effort earned a career-best 112 figure which is the best in the field and his pattern for improvement can continue.

Historically, that is the type of burst of speed which wins more editions of the Kentucky Derby than it does not. This is because it's critical to go past a number of horses quickly before many of them will be able to react. At that point in the Derby, there's not usually a lot of passing as many horses have hit the proverbial wall human runners know about very well. The rail draw has historically been problematic in the Derby, and so it might be for Known Agenda, but given 2020 North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. knows him so well after those two wins, I suspect they may be able to hold mid-pace position in the early stages in spite of a number of horses coming closer to the rail to save ground. If that happens and Known Agenda gets a ground saving trip without losing too many positions out of the gate, and if able to repeat the acceleration he showed with a quarter mile to run in the Florida Derby, he could win Kentucky Derby 147.

It is difficult to disregard any undefeated horse, especially one like Essential Quality who won the Breeders' Futurity last fall in only the second start of his career, then won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and who has won both starts as a three year old. The pattern is unmistakable for an improving athlete, with Equibase figures of 88-95-101 and 105 before a new career-best 109 in the Blue Grass Stakes. In the Blue Grass Essential Quality looked like he would never go by Highly Motivated¸ who had led from the start, but as the finish line came nearer his determination took over and he prevailed by a neck. As he is making his third start following nearly four months off, Essential Quality likely has more improving to do and if he peaks in the Kentucky Derby as is certainly possible he could become the 10th horse to exit the Derby undefeated.

Highly Motivated did everything right in the Blue Grass except come out on top in the photo and there is nothing to be ashamed of in finishing a head behind undefeated Essential Quality. After improving throughout his two-year-old campaign with 87, 89 and 104 figures including winning the Nyquist Stakes in his last start of 2020, Highly Motivated took four months off to grow up. Returning to finish third in the Gotham Stakes in March with a 102 figure, Highly Motivated went to the front from the start in the Blue Grass and kept Essential Quality at bay until the final strides, improving to a career-best 108 figure not to be trifled with when compared to the other top contenders in this field. Although not showing the explosive kick at the quarter pole similar to Known Agenda, it must be noted that both Highly Motivated and Essential Quality both quickened their stride with about a quarter of a mile to run in the race and opened up many lengths on the rest of the field. This leads me to believe that in the 20 horse Kentucky Derby field, Highly Motivated may be able to change gears nicely at the critical stage of the race and have a say in the outcome.

King Fury and Super Stock are both likely to be longshots (20 to 1 or more) and although both have less chance to succeed as compared to the four horses previously mentioned, I for one would be kicking myself if I did not at least have a small wager to win on both of them and watch them win at very high odds.

King Fury won the first and third races of his career last year. Both happened to be at Churchill Downs and the latter of the pair came in the Street Sense Stakes. Following poor seventh and fifth place efforts in stakes to end 2020, King Fury was given a good deal of time off, four and one-half months to be exact. Returning just three weeks ago in the Lexington Stakes, King Fury closed from eighth of nine like a flash to make the lead at the top of the stretch and open up to win easily. The 103 Equibase figure is the same as Rock Your World earned in the Santa Anita Derby and definitely can be improved upon in the colt's second start off the long layoff. As a son of Curlin (the same sire as Known Agenda), who himself finished third in the 2007 Derby and who has sired the most winners at this 10 furlong distance of any sire of an entrant in this year's race, there is little doubt King Fury should be able to run the distance successfully.

Super Stock put it all together for the 12 to 1 upset in the Arkansas Derby last month, earning a career-best 106 figure which puts him in the top group of win contenders. He had finished fourth in the Rebel Stakes one month earlier, but that followed four and one-half months off and he may not have been fully cranked up for the Rebel. Having finished third behind Essential Quality in the Breeders' Futurity last fall and second behind King Fury in the Street Sense Stakes in October and now back in top form with room to improve, Super Stock should not be ruled out as a contender to post the upset in this year's Kentucky Derby.

The rest of the Kentucky Derby field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures is Brooklyn Strong (99), Bourbonic (100), Dynamic One (100), Hidden Stash (93), Helium (94), Hot Rod Charlie (99), Keepmeinmind (98), Like the King (95), Mandaloun (97), Medina Spirit (100), Midnight Bourbon (96), O Besos (96), Sainthood (93) and Soup and Sandwich (108).

Win contenders:
Rock Your World
Known Agenda
Essential Quality
Highly Motivated
King Fury
Super Stock

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, Saturday May 1, at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and most online wagering sites.

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