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Equibase Analysis: Silver Dust Could Upset Maxfield In Stephen Foster

This Saturday's Grade 2, $600,000 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs brings together a field of nine horses in the Breeders' Cup Classic division trying to earn a “Win and You're In” spot into the big race in November. Leading the field in terms of recent accomplishments is Maxfield, an earner of more than $900K in his career and the winner of six of seven lifetime races who enters the Stephen Foster off a win in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes in April at Churchill.

Chess Chief won the similar Grade 2 New Orleans Stakes in March, before a non-threatening third-place effort behind Maxfield in the Alysheba. Warrior's Charge is another who has had an excellent career, banking $887K, but his most recent win came in February of 2020 when victorious in the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap. Visitant finished second in the Alysheba following a win in the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes and will certainly be on many a contender list.

South Bend won the Street Sense Stakes over the track as a two year old in 2019 and was winless in 12 straight before a strong allowance win in April. Sprawl just missed by a head in a three horse photo in the Blame Stakes over the track in his most recent race. Necker Island won his most recent race, also over the track just 20 days ago, but had not won prior to that since November, 2019 and has never won a stakes race. Empty Tomb rounds out the field, also going for his first stakes win and also having just won a race at Churchill Downs last month.

I'll start my win contender list with Silver Dust, who has a lot of mental ability to go along with his physical ability. This has resulted in 14 first or second place finishes in 31 dirt races and earnings of $975,677. Perhaps better still, Silver Dust has finished in the top three in eight of 10 career starts at Churchill Downs, winning twice. His best effort ever came over the track and was not a win but occurred when leading late and coming up a neck short of victory in the Lukas Classic Stakes in the fall of 2019, earning a very strong 113 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure in the process.

Putting that into perspective among the rest of the field, favorite Maxfield earned a 115 figure winning the Alysheba Stakes in his most recent race. In April, 20 days before Maxfield won the Alysheba, Silver Dust won the Ben Ali Stakes at the distance of the Stephen Foster even after a slow start and having to battle with two other horses the entire length of the stretch. Jockey Adam Beschizza rode Silver Dust to that victory and rides again which in my opinion gives Silver Dust a chance at posting the upset over likely heavily favored Maxfield in the race.

Maxfield won the first five races of his career including four stakes, the biggest of which was the 2019 Breeders' Futurity. Last season as a three year old Maxfield won the Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs in May but was unable to make the rescheduled Kentucky Derby in September. He returned off a layoff last December to win consecutive races including the Mineshaft Stakes with a then career-best 111 ™ figure. After a disappointing third-place finish as the heavy favorite in the Santa Anita Handicap in March of this year, Maxfield won the Alysheba Stakes on April 30 at Churchill Downs with authority, establishing a new career-best 115 figure while pulling away at the end to suggest he can run even better in the Stephen Foster.

Visitant won three of four races to start his career including the Alcatraz Stakes in the spring of 2019, then after two poorer efforts and a setback took 13 months off. Returning in the fall of 2020, Visitant got back into top form in his first two-turn race and second start of his comeback last December, then two races later in March won the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes at the distance of the Stephen Foster. Earning career-best 107 ™ figures in the comeback win in March and in the Kentucky Cup Classic, Visitant next squared off against Maxfield in the Alysheba and wasn't disgraced a bit when settling for second after leading for the first six furlongs in the race. The 110 figure earned in the Alysheba was a new best figure and he was four lengths clear of the third horse in a solid effort. Having run three “A” races in a row as a five year old, Visitant must be respected as a strong contender in this year's Stephen Foster Stakes.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Chess Chief (106), Empty Tomb (100), Necker Island (99), South Bend (102), Sprawl (111) and Warrior's Charge (110).

Win Contenders:
Silver Dust
Maxfield
Visitant

Stephen Foster Stakes – Grade 2
Race 11 at Churchill Downs
Saturday, June 26 – Post Time 5:59 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $600,000

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Equibase Analysis: Boardroom Gets Top Billing In Whimsical Stakes

Saturday's Grade 3, $150,000 Whimsical Stakes brings together eight strong distaff sprinters running six furlongs on the all-weather course at Woodbine but the spotlight will be on two of them, Artie's Princess and Boardroom, who meet for the third time in their brief careers.

When last seen in the fall in the Grade 2 Bessarabian Stakes, Artie's Princess prevailed by a diminishing margin to win by a head over Boardroom, who had encountered stifling traffic on the far turn. Prior to that Boardroom had won the Duchess Stakes while Artie's Princess had won the Ruling Angel Stakes.

Our Secret Agent hopes to turn the tide on both fillies after finishing second in the Ruling Angel and Duchess before ending up third in the Bessarabian. Summer Sunday also has the credentials to run well, having taken the Belle Mahone Stakes last September three races following a third place effort in the 2020 Whimsical.

Chart is a stakes winner as well, having captured the Grade 2 Ontario Colleen Stakes on turf last summer at Woodbine. Amalfi Coast won the 2019 Bessarabian Stakes then 11 months later in October 2020 won the Sweet Briar Too Stakes so fits on all counts with these.

Sav has finished first or second in 11 of 16 career starts, with her best effort in a stakes coming when third in the Grade 3 Ontario Fashion Stakes last September. Golden Ami won the first two races of her career last March and November before a sixth place finish in the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl Stakes in her only try at this level.

Boardroom gets slight preference to win this year's Whimsical Stakes. She might be a perfect-five-for five in her career except for two things beyond her control- broken equipment and severe traffic trouble. After easily winning the first two starts of her career last June and July, Boardroom suffered from a piece of broken equipment in the Ruling Angel Stakes (won by Artie's Princess) which denied jockey Contreras steering control. The fact that Boardroom finished third in that race was a testament to her desire to win. Next up in October, Boardroom won the Duchess Stakes, earning a career best 101 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure in the process, which was the same figure Artie's Princess earned for her Ruling Angel victory.

When these two fillies next met in the Bessarabian in November, Boardroom was in position to win on the far turn when a horse boxed her in, forcing her and jockey Contreras to wait for a break in traffic when otherwise she would have been in high gear. After circling four paths wide on the turn while the winner got a much better trip, Boardroom was closing with every stride when the wire came, missing by a head with another 101 figure. With the outside post in the Whimsical, Boardroom should be able to avoid traffic while it is likely Golden Ami sets a brisk pace, chased closely by Sav, giving her the opportunity to close nicely to win this race.

Summer Sunday loves to win races, as evidenced by her record of eight victories from 12 starts on the all-weather main track at Woodbine. As a four year old (the same age as Boardroom and Artie's Princess) in 2019, Summer Sunday won the Hendrie Stakes and Royal North Stakes in succession, then in her 2020 debut she finished third in the Whimsical. Later last season she won an allowance race during the summer before taking the Belle Mahone Stakes in the fall, with the better of those two efforts earning a 100 ™ figure good enough to be competitive with the main contenders if repeated.

Artie's Princess won the first two starts of her career in the summer and fall of 2019, then nearly won the Frost King Stakes with a career-best 102 figure. Resting from November of that year to last June, Artie's Princess returned to win easily with a 99 figure then two later won the Ruling Angel with a 101 figure effort. Duplicating that in the Bessarabian and having won all three races in her career when returning from a layoff as she's doing today, Artie's Princess has every right to add to her already strong five-for-six record on the main track at Woodbine with a win in the Whimsical Stakes.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Amalfi Coast (103), Chart (85), Golden Ami (100), Our Secret Agent (100) and Sav (99).

Win Contenders:
Boardroom
Summer Sunday
Artie's Princess

Whimsical Stakes – Grade 3
Race 9 at Woodbine
Saturday, June 19 – Post Time 5:31 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs on all-weather
Fillies and Mares, Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $150,000

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Equibase Analysis: Ny Traffic Top Choice In Salvator Mile, But Croatian Intriguing Underneath

This Saturday's Grade 3, $150,000 Salvatore Mile Stakes at Monmouth Park drew a strong field of 10, including four horses which won their most recent start. In addition, 2020 Salvatore Mile winner Pirate's Punch returns to defend his title but does so following seven months off and an 11th place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

Bal Harbour and NY Traffic lead the field in career earnings at more than $600,000, but Bal Harbour returns from a seven month layoff as well and has not earned a win in his last 14 races going back to November, 2018. On the other hand, NY Traffic makes his second start off a seven month rest and ran the best race of his career at Monmouth last summer when second and a nose behind Authentic.

Basin won the Sir Shackleton Stakes when sprinting in March and can likely handle the stretch out to two turns as he finished second in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby last May. Another horse stakes placed as a 3-year-old in 2020 is Green Light Go, who was second in the Roar Stakes last May as well as second in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes as a 2-year-old.

Galerio finished second in the Harrison E. Johnson Memorial and John B. Campbell Stakes in succession earlier this year and must be considered, particularly as he has finished first or second in 20 of 24 career races. War Stopper finished third in the Grade 3 Challenger Stakes in his stakes debut in March before a fourth-place effort in the similar Grade 3 Ghostzapper Stakes at the end of the same month.

Croatian, Informative and West Will Power round out the field but are not without chances either. Croatian has won two of four races at Monmouth and makes his second start off a layoff, Informative finished second in his most recent race last month, and West Will Power won his most recent race decisively by nine lengths.

NY Traffic gets top billing in this year's Salvatore Mile Stakes by virtue of a strong seven-length win in his 4-year-old debut last month. That win came at the distance of seven furlongs and earned a 99 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure, which is highly likely to be improved upon significantly in his second start off the layoff and on the stretch out to two turns. Last spring and summer, NY Traffic proved competitive with top 3-year-olds Maxfield and then Authentic when second in three straight graded stakes – the Risen Star, Louisiana Derby and Matt Winn.

Next came the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth last July in which NY Traffic ran the best race of his career, earning a 107 figure and coming up just a nose shy of beating subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Authentic. Following an eighth-place finish in the Derby and a ninth-place effort in the Preakness, NY Traffic was given time off to mature and he certainly did so as evidenced by his comeback last month. With Paco Lopez returning to the saddle to ride him as he did in the Haskell, NY Traffic may be the one to beat in this race.

Croatian is the veteran in this field, having run 31 times. This will be only his second career start in a stakes race and the other, back in March of last year, was a poor effort in which he finished sixth. However, Croatian was claimed shortly thereafter by Jerry Hollendorfer and reeled off four straight top efforts including two wins and a defeat by a neck, all at Monmouth. The best of those, last September, earned Croatian a 107 ™ figure on par with the figure NY Traffic earned in the Haskell.

Also similar to NY Traffic, Croatian stretches out off a sprint prep following a layoff (October to April). In that sprint, Croatian finished fourth, beaten just two lengths by the winner, with a 97 figure very similar to NY Traffic. As such, it is very likely Croatian will take a big step forward and if he does and can duplicate any of his four efforts over the track last summer, he could post the upset or at the least run much better than his high odds suggest he will.

Pirate's Punch has one big question mark regarding his chances which NY Traffic and Croatian do not and that is he is making his first start of 2021, returning off a seven moth layoff. Pirate's Punch won the 2020 Salvatore Mile with a strong 110 ™ figure and fairly easily by two lengths in a field of eight, as the two to one betting favorite. He had won the Philip H. Iselin Stakes one month prior to that but was disqualified and placed second. Following a last of 12 finish in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, Pirate's Punch was given time to rest and his recent workouts indicated he is in excellent physical form. Additionally, Pirate's Punch won his 2020 debut with a 112 figure but that was following two months off and seven months can be quite different. Nevertheless as he's proven at the level and over the track, Pirate's Punch rounds out a trio I feel stand out against the others in this year's Salvatore Mile Stakes.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Bal Harbour (108), Basin (104), Galerio (107), Green Light Go (99), Informative (103), West Will Power (102) and War Stopper (103).

Win Contenders:
NY Traffic
Croatian
Pirate's Punch

Salvatore Mile Stakes – Grade 3
Race 10 at Monmouth
Saturday, June 12 – Post Time 4:28 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $150,000

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Equibase Analysis: Rock Your World Could Prove Tough To Catch In Belmont Stakes

Back in its traditional spot on the calendar five weeks after the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, the Grade 1, $1.5 Million Belmont Stakes doesn't have a Triple Crown on the line, or even the Derby winner trying to make amends for losing the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes. What the Belmont does have is a field of eight including five horses which ran in the Derby and then expressly sat out the Preakness for this opportunity. Those five horses, with their Derby placings, are Hot Rod Charlie (third), Essential Quality (fourth), Known Agenda (ninth), Bourbonic (13th) and Rock Your World (17th). Preakness winner Rombauer tries to win the last two legs of the Triple Crown, while France Go de Ina attempts to improve off a seventh of 10 finish in that race. Overtook rounds out the field, having finished third in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes over the track four weeks ago.

Analysis Part One – Main Contenders

The strategy for Rock Your World in the Derby was to go to the lead just as he had done one month earlier winning the Santa Anita Derby, earning a career best 103 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure figure in the process. That plan was laid to rest immediately when one of jockey Joel Rosario's feet came out of the irons, resulting in a shift in his weight and more importantly, the inability to get the colt to the front. From there both horse and jockey could do nothing but watch as his #1 weapon was neutralized. Shipping back to California for three strong workouts, the most recent a five furlong drill in :58.4 which was the best of 34 on the day, lightning is highly unlikely to strike twice. As such, Rock Your World should be able to control the pace from the start, possibly slowing the tempo down to below average, and go on for the win in the same manner as a number of winners of the Belmont in the last 20 years such as D' Tara, Justify and American Pharoah.

In spite of finishing fourth of 19 as the betting favorite in the Derby, Essential Quality continued a pattern of improvement started in his first start of the year as a three year old in February. The talented colt won the Southwest Stakes with a 105 figure before a career-best 109 ™ figure in the Blue Grass Stakes in April. In the Derby, Essential Quality made a rallying move while wide to go from seventh (five and one-half lengths back) to fourth (three-quarters of a length back) with a quarter mile to go but ran evenly thereafter. Although the 109 figure was the same, one thing Essential Quality has in his favor for the Belmont is his tactical speed because if he sits second in the early stages as he did in the Blue Grass, he may be able to pass Rock Your World in the final strides where he was unable to pass Medina Spirit in the Derby. The reason for this is his pedigree, as Essential Quality is the only son of Tapit in the field. Tapit produced the 2014 (Tonalist), 2016 (Creator) and 2017 (Tapwrit) winners of the Belmont. Tapit produces horses which can run 12 furlongs and more as evidenced by STATS Race Lens Query which reveals the sire has produced 13 different winners at distances from a mile and one-half to two miles over the last five years, accounting for 18 wins, with six of those coming at Belmont Park.

Known Agenda ran just a bit less poorly in the Derby as opposed to Rock Your World, checking in ninth after advancing from last of 19 in the early stages. That's insignificant as compared to his two races prior to that. He added blinkers for the first of the pair in February and won by 11 lengths with a 103 figure. Next he won the Florida Derby with a 112 figure and did so easily. Known Agenda is trained by Todd Pletcher, as is Bourbonic and Overtook. Pletcher has won this race with Rags to Riches (2007), Palace Malice (2013) and Tapwrit (2017). Considering his win in the Florida Derby earned a 112 figure, which is the best figure earned by any horse in this field, and considering North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides the colt for the fourth straight time, Known Agenda could bounce back to top form and post the mile upset to win.

Analysis Part Two – Second Tier Contenders

As for Rombauer, although he has improved in each race as a 3-year-old, going from a 95 figure, to 100, to 103 in the Preakness, I have concerns about his ability to run a mile and one-half as well as his ability to stay close early. Historically, a few horses have come from far back which is the way Rombauer likes to run, but for the most part winners of the Belmont have either led from the start or been within two lengths for most of the race. Considering the likely early pace edge Rock Your World possesses, Rombauer could be relegated to a minor award.

Similarly, Hot Rod Charlie's third place effort in the Derby may give bettors incentive to bet him more heavily than is appropriate given his somewhat low probability to win in my opinion. Hot Rod Charlie earned a 97 figure when beaten a neck by Medina Spirit in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in January, before improving to 99 when winning the Louisiana Derby in April. In the Kentucky Derby, Hot Rod Charlie moved up quickly after a half-mile to get into third position then kept that same position the entire last six furlongs of the race. It is possible he could be sitting in second behind Rock Your World in the early portions of the Belmont instead of Essential Quality, but I see jockey Luis Saez on Essential Quality being more aggressive from his inside post and denying Hot Rod Charlie that opportunity, which means he would have to out finish Rock Your World who has run slowly on the lead from the start. Considering he couldn't pass Medina Spirit the entire length of the stretch in the Derby, I think that's a tall order.

Analysis Part Three – Non-Contenders:

There are few horses which don't seem to be at the same level as the rest, so it appears logical to eliminate those as win contenders. Bourbonic started 18th in the Derby and ended up 13th. Prior to that he earned a 100 figure winning the Wood Memorial at odds of 72 to 1, and prior to that had no stakes experience at all. As a matter of fact he broke his maiden in a maiden claiming race. He just doesn't seem good enough or fast enough to be competitive.

Similarly, Overtook finished second in the Withers Stakes in February off a maiden win with a 97 figure then took three months off and ran evenly from start to finish in the Peter Pan Stakes with a 99 figure. Overtook is one of three trained by Todd Pletcher, shares some ownership with Known Agenda and adds blinkers. He doesn't appear fast enough to take on likely early leader Rock Your World but then again stranger things have happened. Still, although a pace factor I don't see him being in the top three at the end.

France Go de Ina pressed the pace when third in the early stages of the Preakness then faded to seventh, earning a 78 figure. It would take an astronomical amount of improvement for him to be competitive here in my opinion.

Win Contenders:
Rock Your World
Essential Quality
Known Agenda

Belmont Stakes – Grade 1
Race 11 at Belmont Park
Saturday, June 5 – Post Time 6:49 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Half
Three Years Old
Purse: $1.5 Million
T.V.: NBC 5 – 7 PM E.T.

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