Tag: equibase analysis

Equibase Analysis: Knicks Go Should Lead Classic Field On A Merry Chase

The 38th running of the Grade 1, $6 million Longines Breeders' Cup Classic drew a field of nine, including 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit, who enters the race off a win last month in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes.

Hot Rod Charlie and Essential Quality, who finished third and fourth in the Derby, respectively, have both come a long way since then as Hot Rod Charlie won the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby and Essential Quality won the Grade 1 Travers Stakes in their most recent races. Another with top credentials is Art Collector, winner of the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes last month for his third straight stakes win. Then there's Max Player, riding a two-race winning streak at the Classic distance consisting of the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes in July followed by the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.

The aforementioned quintet are likely to be chasing Knicks Go from the onset. Riding a three-race winning streak including the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes,  Knicks Go is a 5-year-old with field high earnings of $5.5 million and is unlikely to yield to any of them from the moment the gates open. Stilleto Boy earned the biggest stakes win of his career when winning the Iowa Derby in July but has been beaten soundly by Medina Spirit in two straight races, Similarly, Express Train, who won the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap in July at Del Mar, finished seven lengths behind Medina Spirit in the Awesome Again. Tripoli rounds out the field. Winner of the Grade 1 Pacific Classic in August, he was beaten eight lengths while never threatening in the Awesome Again last month.

Top three win contenders (in probability/preference order):

Knicks Go has an edge over the other eight horses in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic because of his running style. Knicks Go has had the lead from the start in his last eight races, consisting of seven wins. As such, the trainers of the other eight horses can strategize all they want about how the race can be won by their charges, but one thing is certain and that is if any of the other entrants try to fight for the early lead with Knicks Go they are likely to be severely compromising their own chances of success.

On the other hand, if Knicks Go is left unabated on the front end, he is likely to get into a steady rhythm and will not allow any other horse to get within a length of him in the last quarter mile. Since returning from a trip half way across the world to compete in the Saudi Cup in February and being short of 100% when fourth in the Metropolitan Handicap in June, Knicks Go has reeled off three straight impressive victories with Equibase Speed Figures of 118, 117 and 115. Jockey Joel Rosario, who has been in the saddle aboard Knicks Go for his last six wins, fits the horse perfectly by allowing him to get into a fluid stride and do his thing, which once again in the Breeders' Cup Classic should be to control the tempo on fast fractions from the start and never look back.

Art Collector and Max Player are both likely to be taking up stalking positions behind Knicks Go shortly after the start as that has been their successful strategy in winning key Classic prep races this summer and fall. Art Collector has won three straight since moving to the care of Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott this summer, with each effort better than the rest. After winning the Alydar Stakes in August with a 110 figure, Art Collector improved to 115 in the Charles Town Classic then to a career-best 120 figure effort in the Woodward Stakes last month. Although he led from start to finish in two of those three races, in the Charles Town Classic Art Collector stalked the early leader in second before forging to the front in the last eighth of a mile. Therefore if Knicks Go can be passed in the final stages of this race, Art Collector is one of those who may be able to go by the early leader and post the upset.

Max Player has also run career-best races in his most recent starts. After returning from an 11th place finish in the Saudi Cup, Max Player finished a poor sixth in the Pimlico Special in May but rebounded nicely to win the Suburban Stakes at the distance of the Classic in July. Earning a career-best 113 figure with that effort, Max Player duplicated it when winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup in September with the same figure. In both races, under jockey Ricardo Santana Jr., who will ride again in the Classic, Max Player sat in second in the early stages then pounced on the leader before drawing off, doing so by four lengths in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in a decisive effort in his most recent win.

About the rest:

Essential Quality is eight for nine in his career, his lone defeat coming when a troubled fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Although beaten just one length by Medina Spirit for the win and just a head behind Hot Rod Charlie for third place, Essential Quality proved he belongs with the best in that race. Winning the Belmont Stakes five weeks later, then the Jim Dandy Stakes at the end of July, Essential Quality earned very similar figures of 107 to 109. Stretching out to the Classic distance for the Travers Stakes in August, Essential Quality once again ran professionally while battling head and head with Midnight Bourbon for the last eighth of a mile, coming out on top by a neck with a 109 figure. That 109 figure might be the issue with this talented colt in the Classic. Not only is Essential Quality coming back from the longest period of rest of any horse in the field (more than two months), he also has not improved his figures throughout his three year old campaign where significant improvement is needed to get to the 118 to 120 figure threshold it is going to take to win this race.

Hot Rod Charlie ran the best race of his career when victorious in the Pennsylvania Derby near the end of September, earning a 120 figure in the process while easily defeating Midnight Bourbon, who had battled down to the wire with Essential Quality one month earlier. On the other hand, Hot Rod Charlie puts blinkers back on for the Classic and it appears to me that when wearing blinkers for six straight races from October of last year through the Belmont he either ran evenly in the last eighth of a mile, or lost ground to the winner in the final stages. The first of two examples of that came when he was only a head behind Essential Quality in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile entering the stretch before finishing three-quarters of a length behind at the finish, and the other was when he was a head from Essential Quality in the Belmont with an eighth of a mile to run but one and one-quarter lengths behind him at the end.

Next we come to Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit. Never worse than third in nine career starts, Medina Spirit ran the best race of his career in the Derby with a 110 figure. Regressing to a much lower 95 figure effort when third in the Preakness, Medina Spirit won the non-graded Shared Belief Stakes in August after three months off with a 105 figure then improved to win the Awesome Again Stakes last month back to the 110 figure from the Derby. The problem Medina Spirit may have in this year's Classic is he has led from the start in his last four races, starting with the Derby. Being as Medina Spirit is unlikely to run as fast in the early stages as Knicks Go, he will be asked to take up a stalking position in the Classic and if his previous efforts from off the pace are any indication, Medina Spirit isn't as good from that position as he is on the lead. For example, when fourth in the early stages of the Santa Anita Derby in April, Medina Spirit could only manage second at the end and was beaten four lengths and the same thing happened previous to that when second and eight lengths behind the winner in the San Felipe Stakes.

Tripoli won the Pacific Classic Stakes at this distance in August with a 109 figure, having earned 106 and 109 figures previous to that. Then he regressed significantly in the Awesome Again when fourth with a 98 figure and as such it does not appear likely he can contend with the top horses in this race. Similarly, Express Train ran his best race of 2021 when winning the San Diego Handicap in July with a 107 figure but as he is entering this race off sixth and third place finishes with 95 and 99 figure efforts and has a tall order ahead of him to be competitive. Stilleto Boy finished second by five lengths to Medina Spirit in the Awesome Again with a 102 figure and ran the best race of his career with a 106 figure in the Iowa Derby in July but has never run this far and appears to be up against it in terms of a top three placing.

Grade 1 Longines Breeders' Cup Classic
Saturday, November 6 – Race 12, Post Time 8:40 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
For Three Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $6 Million
TV: NBC 8-9 p.m. ET

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase. You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Del Mar on Breeders' Cup Weekend (Friday 11/5 and Saturday 11/6), at Equibase.com

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Equibase Analysis: Zero Tolerance The One To Beat In Autumn Miss

This Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Autumn Miss Stakes at Santa Anita Park brings together a field of eight 3-year-old fillies traversing a mile on the turf. Six of the eight have won either their most recent race or the one right before that and all eight fillies have been stakes placed at least once to date.

  • Madone is the most accomplished in terms of earnings at $367,800 with some of that earned when winning the G2 San Clemente Stakes at this mile turf trip in July.
  • Spanish Loveaffair is also a graded stakes winner, having captured the G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes in February and more recently the non-graded Pebbles Stakes last month in New York.
  • Zero Tolerance stretches out to a mile off a win in the Unzip Me Stakes over the course just 27 days ago and is tied for the most lightly raced filly in the field, having run just three times.
  • Ego Trip (IRE) is the other filly making just her fourth career start and finished third in the G2 Lake Placid Stakes in August, which was her most recent race.
  • Eddie's New Dream finished second in the Melair Stakes on dirt in June and recently won strongly on the grass, while Freedom Flyer missed by a head in the California Oaks this past April.
  • Burgoo Alley (IRE) was third behind Zero Tolerance in the Unzip Me and also stretches out, having won at a mile on turf just before that.
  • Javanica missed by less than a length in the G3 Jimmy Durante Stakes and by the same margin in the Blue Norther Stakes last November and December, and returns from two months off following a sixth place effort in the G1 Del Mar Oaks.

I believe strongly Zero Tolerance is the one to beat in this year's Autumn Miss Stakes, even over multiple stakes winner Madone. Zero Tolerance missed by a nose in a big effort when rallying from eighth of 10 in her career debut this past August in a sprint. Improving nicely 19 days later, she won on dirt then moving back to turf for the Unzip Me Stakes on Oct. 3 at the distance of six and one-half furlongs on turf. In that race, Zero Tolerance rallied from sixth of seven in the early stages to win going away. That effort earned her a career best 98 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure and logical improvement in only the fourth start of her career puts her at, or above, the 104 field high figures Spanish Loveaffair earned winning the Pebbles Stakes and the 104 figure Madone earned winning the San Clemente Stakes.

There is no doubt in my mind Zero Tolerance can stretch out to a mile and run a winning race, given her dam Torreadora also produced multiple stakes winner El Tormenta, who won the 2019 Grade 1, $1 million Woodbine Mile Stakes. Santa Anita leading jockey Flavien Prat was in the saddle as Zero Tolerance won her last two race and rides back and that is another reason this filly gets top billing in this situation.

Madone has won five of nine races in her careen, including two of three on the Santa Anita turf and four of eight stakes tries. Her best career effort came in July when winning the San Clemente Stakes at the distance of the Autumn Miss and earning a career-best 104 ™ figure. However, her most recent two races were some of her poorest efforts, first when fifth in the Del Mar Oaks, then when fifth in the Jockey Club Oaks Invitational last month in New York. Then again, neither of those was a mile, the distance of the San Clemente which Madone returns to. Additionally, the Del Mar Oaks was a Grade 1 race and although not yet graded, the Jockey Club Oaks is going to be a Grade 1 race in the future. As such, the drop to this G3 level and the return to a mile and to a turf course she has had success over in the past bode well for Madone regaining top form.

Honorable mention goes to Burgoo Alley (IRE) and Javanica, and I would consider both for any exacta tickets played. Burgoo Alley (IRE) won at Santa Anita in a turf sprint this past June, in her second start since importing from Ireland. She stretched out to two turns next and ran two “A” races in a row, first beaten a head with a 101 figure then winning an allowance race at a mile with a stakes quality 103 figure. She then stumbled at the start of the Unzip Me to be last of seven, rushed up to third, fell back to fifth, then re-rallied for third.

Javanica finished second in a pair of stakes last fall and winter on this circuit with big efforts then tried dirt in the Santa Anita Oaks. When that experiment failed, she moved back to grass for the Senorita Stakes at a mile on turf in May but ran into a ton of traffic trouble and was eventually moved up from sixth to fifth after another horse was disqualified for interference. Returning in July, Javanica earned a career-best 101 figure with a win then faded to fifth after leading from the start in the Del Mar Oaks. Freshened again, she has potential to run as well as she did in July and could be a contender.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Eddie's New Dreams (86), Ego Trip (94), Freedom Flyer (88) and Spanish Loveaffair (104).

Win Contenders:
Zero Tolerance
Madone

Autumn Miss Stakes – Grade 3
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, Oct. 30 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Fillies, Three Years Old
Purse: $100,000

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Equibase Analysis: Empress Josephine Could Rule In QEII Challenge Cup

A strong field of 10 three-year-old fillies is assembled for Saturday's Grade 1, $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland. This race is an “invitation only” event and drew eight horses which have been running in North America plus two coming in from Europe off good efforts in stakes.

In terms of achievements, Shantisara (IRE) could be considered first based on money earned as she's just $12,000 short of a half-million dollars, the majority of that earned winning the non-graded but very classy $700,000 Jockey Club Oaks Invitational last month at Belmont Park.

Then there's Empress Josephine (IRE), who along with Nicest (IRE) has faced the toughest competition of any horse in the field. Empress Josephine (IRE) won the Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas in May and comes back on six days rest after finishing third last week in the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes at Keeneland. Nicest (IRE) finished third in the Irish Oaks when last seen in mid-July and the horse that won the race is top European filly Snowfall, who recently finished sixth against some of the toughest males in the world in the Group 1 Prix De l'Arc de Triomphe.

Technical Analysis (IRE) enters this race off a victory in the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes, while Flippant just won the Virginia Oaks at the distance of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. Closing Remarks is another who has been competitive in top company as she finished second in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks in her most recent race. Burning Ambition is yet another recent stakes winner, having captured the Indiana Grand Stakes last month.

Cloudy Dawn (IRE) makes her North American debut and when last seen in August she was victorious in the Group 3 Prix de Lieurey so is another not to be taken lightly. Queen Goddess and Lady Speightspeare both enter this race off allowance wins and for Lady Speightspeare it was her first start following nearly a year away from the races. Just prior to the layoff she won the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes.

Empress Josephine (IRE) has the best credentials in the field and one of the best ™ Equibase® Speed Figure earned by any filly in this group, a 113 when third last week in the First Lady Stakes at a shorter distance on the Keeneland Turf. In that race Empress Josephine (IRE) raced mid-pack in sixth of 12 in the early stages and steadily made up ground to finish third, just a half-length from the runner-up, with the winner another half-length in front. She had just run four weeks earlier in Ireland when fourth of 13, beaten a head for second, in the very important Group 1 Matron Stakes. That effort earned a 115 figure and she had earned a 114 figure in May when winning the Irish 1000 Guineas.

No other horse in the field, except Nicest (IRE), has broken through the 110 figure threshold so considering Empress Josephine (IRE) has done it three times this season, she appears to be the one to beat. As a daughter of amazing sire Galileo, Empress Josephine (IRE) should appreciate the extra eighth of a mile and she adds blinkers as well, likely suggested by top jockey John Velazquez, who returns to ride after being aboard last weekend. There's also no concern about the filly returning so quickly because her trainer is one of the best in the world in Aiden O'Brien, who according to a Race Lens query has only run two horses back on a week's rest in the past five years. One of those was Athena, who won the 2018 Belmont Oaks easily off a similarly short respite. Even more significant is the fact that Together (IRE), who was a daughter of Galileo and who was trained by O'Brien, finished second in the 2011 First Lady Stakes then went on to win the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup one week later.

Flippant may be a live longshot candidate although she has won three races in a row, two of those stakes races. Flippant won the Preview Dueling Grounds Oaks Stakes in August with a 98 ™figure then improved to 100 at the end of August when victorious in the Virginia Oaks at the same nine furlong trip of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. In the Virginia Oaks, Flippant put in a furious rally from 11th with a quarter mile to go and was never really asked as she lengthened her stride to win going away. The 100 figure earned is a far cry from any of the three best figures Empress Josephine (IRE) has earned but Flippant has the pattern to improve, and the breeding to run very well. The Race Lens report on her dam, Frivolous, shows that mare won the Grade 1 Fleur de Lis Stakes at this distance on dirt as well as won on turf, and the report on her sire Tapit shows me his daughter Time and Motion won the 2016 edition of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup so there is a lot of potential for this filly to run well.

Cloudy Dawn (IRE) and Nicest (IRE) are both nice fillies who have faced some tough competition in Europe and who could both have a say in the outcome of this race. Cloudy Dawn (IRE) just won a group three stakes in Europe, the equivalent of a grade two stakes in North American, and she was flattered when the runner-up came back to win her next race. Trainer William Haggas hasn't started many horses in North America in the past few years but one of them was Call to Mind, owned by Her Majesty the Queen, who shipped in to win the 2018 Belmont Gold Cup. Nicest (IRE) has been facing top company just like Empress Josephine (IRE) and that alone warrants consideration as a contender. She finished third of 13 in the Ribblesdale Stakes in June at Royal Ascot and followed that up with a third place finish behind top European three year old Snowfall in the Irish Oaks in mid-July. That last effort earned a 116 Equibase Figure and if she can repeat or improve off that effort nearly three months later she could certainly be in the thick of the action at the wire in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Burning Ambition (83), Closing Remarks (101), Lady Speightspeare (98), Queen Goddess (91), Shantisara (IRE) (101) and Technical Analysis (IRE) (100).

Top Win Contender:
Empress Josephine

Other contenders:
Flippant
Cloudy Dawn (IRE)
Nicest (IRE)

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes presented by Dixiana – Grade 1
Race 8 at Keeneland
Saturday, Sept. 16 – Post Time 4:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth on Turf
Fillies, Three Years Old
Purse: $500,000

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Keeneland at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and most online wagering sites.

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Equibase Analysis: Good Effort The One To Catch In Vosburgh

Saturday's Grade 2, $250,000 Vosburgh Stakes is a “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Although only drawing a field of five, there is not one horse entered who is without a chance to succeed. Since the group is small, I'll dispense with the normal listing of their qualifications and cover all five horses in detail.

Good Effort (IRE) has won eight of 29 career races, all on turf or all-weather. However, he has run big races on dirt, specifically when missing by a neck in a 13 horse field this past March in the Group 3 Mahab Al Shimaal Stakes in Dubai on a left handed course like the one at Belmont. Overmatched in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen Stakes after that, Good Effort (IRE) rebounded to miss by three-quarters of a length in a group 3 stakes in the U.K. after making the lead and holding on until very late in the race. Overmatched once more in the Group 1 Darley July Cup Stakes and the Group 2 King George Qater Stakes, the latter run at five furlongs on grass, Good Effort (IRE) rebounded to lead from start to finish in a very fast six and one-half furlong race in France on all-weather last month.

From January through November 2020, Good Effort (IRE) won four straight races, in three of the four making the lead shortly after the start and easily holding the front to the end. Adding blinkers to insure he does the same as in Europe and Dubai, considering he earned very consistent ™ Equibase® Speed Figures of 108 to 110 in his top efforts, Good Effort (IRE) has a shot to surprise the local contingent and win this year's Vosburgh Stakes in front running fashion.

Following Sea cuts back from seven furlongs to six furlongs which may be the key to a top effort. He finished third and well behind the top two finishers in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes in August, but those two horses (Jackie's Warrior and Life is Good) both won their next starts in top stakes company. Before the Jerkens, Following Sea finished third when trying two-turns for the first time in the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes, an irrelevant experiment in my opinion. Prior to the Haskell, Following Sea won easily by six and one-half lengths at Belmont and prior to that he won by five and three-quarter lengths at this six furlong trip, earning a career best 110 ™ figure good enough to win this race. Cutting back to his best distance gives Following Sea a good shot to do just that and he's another likely to be a bit ignored in the wagering compared to others in this year's Vosburgh.

Firenze Fire is likely to be favored on the strength of his big effort at the end of August in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes. In the Forego, Firenze Fire went head-and-head with eventual winner Yaupon for the final quarter mile, even trying to bite his foe multiple times in the stretch run. That effort earned a strong 112 figure, similar to the 113 figure earned two races before that when second in the Grade 2 John A. Nerud Stakes at Belmont. Winner of the 2020 Vosburgh with a 116 figure, Firenze Fire shows up with his “A” game nearly every time he runs and must be respected as a contender.

Baby Yoda is one of two three year olds in the field, the other Following Sea. He is the most lightly raced horse in the group, having run four times, but he has improved markedly in each race, starting with an 84 figure effort, then 91, then 97 and finally 111 in his most recent race. That most recent effort on September 4 was visually impressive as Baby Yoda easily drew off to a four and one-quarter length victory. Trainer Bill Mott knows this young horse still has improving to do and that is why he puts him in a stakes race for the first time, as that 111 figure matches up well with the 112 figure Firenze Fire earned in the similar Grade 1 Forego Stakes one week before Baby Yoda's last win.

Jalen Journey has won eight of 16 career races including three of nine at this six furlong trip. All four of his stakes tries in the U.S. were excellent efforts, starting with a runner-up effort in the Grade 3 Smile Sprint Stakes in June 2019 in which he led late and missed by less than a length to a top sprinter in Diamond Oops. Since returning from Dubai in May of this year, Jalen Journey has finished first or second in all four races, most recently when crossing the line second but moved up to first in the Grade 3 Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash Stakes when the winner was disqualified for interference. That effort earned a 108 figure and just prior to that Jalen Journey earned a career-best 111 figure, another effort on par with the best of this group

Top Win Contenders:
Good Effort (IRE)
Following Sea

Vosburgh Stakes – Grade 2
Race 5 at Belmont Park
Saturday, October 9 – Post Time 2:45 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $250,000

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