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Equibase Analysis: Runhappy Malibu Opponents May Need To Sprout Wings To Beat Flightline

Seven horses are entered in the Grade 1, $300,000 Runhappy Malibu Stakes, one of six stakes races, all graded, which make up the opening day card for the 2021-'22 meet at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, Calif.

In terms of earnings, Dr. Schivel tops the group with $876,000 banked to date, much of it earned last month when second and beaten a nose in the G1 Breeders' Cup Sprint against older horses. Prior to that, Dr. Schivel won the G2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship and the G1 Bing Crosby Stakes to prove he belongs in this race.

Stilleto Boy also ran in a race on that star-studded card but didn't fare nearly as well when fifth of eight in the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic, with his best effort of the year coming when second in the G1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita one month earlier.

Next in terms of accomplishments is invader Timeless Bounty, who has earned $210,714 in his career and who just pulled off the 59-1 upset in the $250,000 Steel Valley Sprint Stakes one month ago at Mahoning Valley in Ohio.

Baby Yoda won three of his first four starts including a pair of impressive efforts at Saratoga this summer. At this level, however, he did not fare so well, finishing third in the G2 Vosburgh Stakes before a seventh-place effort as the heavy favorite in the Steel Valley Sprint.

Team Merchants won the non-graded Let It Ride Stakes on the turf last month and has won two of five on dirt but his two previous tries in graded stakes resulted in fourth and 13th-place finishes.

Last but absolutely not least are a pair of horses who are undefeated in two starts to date and who are running in a stakes for the first time. One of those is Flightline, with an average winning margin of 13 lengths in his two wins. The other is Triple Tap, a half-brother to champion and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Triple Tap has won his two starts by a combined 6 1/2 lengths and appears to be a horse with an exceptionally bright future.

Win contender:

There is no discussion about this race that does not involve Flightline winning, and possibly dominating, this year's Runhappy Malibu Stakes. I cannot ever recall a 3- year-old doing what this colt has done in his two starts to date. In his debut in April, Flightline was bumped at the start and found himself sixth of eight and about 1 1/2 lengths from the leader. After a sixteenth of a mile had been run, Flightline had taken the lead and by the time the field hit the stretch he was in front by 10 lengths, eventually drawing off to win by 13 1/4 lengths. For that effort, Flightline earned a virtually unheard of 116 Equibase Speed Figure which at that time of year would have high enough to win a graded stakes.

Away from the races for a little over four months after that, Flightline relaxed in second for the first quarter mile and then won by nearly 13 lengths, this time earning a grade 1 figure of 130. To put that kind of effort into perspective, Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Aloha West earned a 110 figure and Breeders' Cup Classic winner Knicks Go earned a 118 figure. Even impressive Breeders' Cup Mile winner Life is Good (120 figure) did not run as fast as Flightline did in that effort on September 5.

Rested almost four months this time, Flightline has been working out strongly every six to eight days since October 31, including three straight workouts that were the best of the morning from among 28, 57 and 41 horses that day. Jockey Flavien Prat, who rode Flightline to victory in both starts, also rode Dr. Schivel to win four straight races and to a nose defeat in the Breeders' Cup Sprint but chooses Flightline in the Malibu. Prat also rode Triple Tap to both of his impressive wins and chooses Flightline.

Going back to how fast Flightline has run in his two starts to date, comparing those efforts to the rest of the Malibu field, even the 116 figure Flightline earned in his maiden win in April is faster than the best figure any other horse in the field has earned this year, and if he repeats the 130 figure effort from September, and even if horses like Triple Tap (107 last race figure and Dr. Schivel (112 and 110 figures in his last two races) improve off those recent efforts, it is going to be very difficult to beat Flightline in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Baby Yoda (111), Dr. Schivel (112), Stilleto Boy (106), Team Merchants (109), Timeless Bounty (100) and Triple Tap (107).

The horse to beat in this year's Malibu Stakes is Flightline.

If you are looking for a horse to come on strongly in the late stages and to finish second or third, the best options appear to be Dr. Schivel, Team Merchants and Timeless Bounty.

Runhappy Malibu Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Santa Anita
Sunday, December 26, 2021 – Post Time 6:49 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
Three Year Olds
Purse: $300,000

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase

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Equibase Analysis: 12-1 On The Morning Line, Officiating Looks Very Tough In Mr. Prospector Stakes

This Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Mr. Prospector Stakes at Gulfstream Park drew a field of seven sprinters running seven furlongs in an intriguing race: not one of the group has finished in the top three in a graded stakes in 2021. That being said, three horses enter the race having either won their most recent race or the one just prior to that.

Dennis' Moment is one of the two in the former group, having won at the seven furlong distance in his most recent race and with a previous graded stakes win in his career as he captured the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes in the fall of 2019.
Officiating won at this distance one race before last, the win coming in the non-graded Bear's Den Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
Doc Amster won last month at Gulfstream Park at the shorter distance of six furlongs and is trying this seven furlong trip for the first time.
Then there's Endorsed, with the highest career earnings in the field at $455,375. His best effort at this level came when second in the Grade 3 Westchester Stakes in June of last year, and he enters the Mr. Prospector Stakes off a fast closing third place effort in his most recent start.
Poppy's Pride won four in a row between September and December of last year but has run poorly in two starts since returning from an eight month layoff in September.
Wind of Change (BRZ) finished fourth in last year's Mr. Prospector and enters this year's race off a runner-up finish two months ago.
Flap Jack rounds out the field, not having won in nine races since June, 2020 and still eligible to run in a second level allowance race.

Main win contenders:

Officiating took seven tries to earn his first win, doing so on turf this past March. Following his maiden win and after missing by a neck in a non-graded stakes race on turf and a mediocre third place effort on dirt, he was privately transferred to the barn of trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. Then, after fourth and third place finishes on turf, Officiating was entered in the Bear's Den Stakes, scheduled for turf, but stayed in the race which was moved to dirt due to weather, earning a career best 110 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure and winning authoritatively by three and one-half lengths.

In his most recent race and following the Bear's Den, Officiating tried the Tapeta all-weather surface and two-turns in the Showing Up Stakes last month and ran poorly, demonstrating only he did not like the surface nor the distance. Cutting back to the distance of the Bear's Den while moving back to the surface of that race, it can be assumed Officiating can duplicate his effort in that race which is good enough to win. There is also little doubt about his being able to run as well considering his last two workouts on dirt coming into the race have been excellent.

Dennis' Moment was thought to be a top 2-year-old in the summer of 2019 following his 19 length win in July with a 106 ™ figure, virtually unheard of for a young two year old. He won the Iroquois Stakes two months later but after finishing last of eight in that year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Stakes he was given time off to mature. When returning in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last February, 2020, Dennis' Moment was sent to post as the heavy favorite but finished 10th and last.

Rested another nine months, he ran poorly one year ago and was again given time off. This time the rest helped greatly as Dennis' Moment missed by a head in a six furlong sprint. Two races later in October, Dennis' Moment earned his first win in 25 months in a highly rated race at Keeneland at the distance of the Mr. Prospector, duplicating the 106 figure earned in the summer of 2019. With logical improvement off that effort in his fourth start off the rest and at the same distance of his last effort, Dennis' Moment has every right to earn a graded stakes win for the second time in his career.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Doc Amster (103), Endorsed (110), Flap Jack (101), Poppy's Pride (97) and Wind of Change (BRZ) (114).

Win Contenders, in preference order:

Officiating
Dennis' Moment

Mr. Prospector Stakes – Grade 3
Race 10 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, December 11 – Post Time 4:32 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $100,000

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Equibase Analysis: Lightly-Raced Price Talk Rates Highest In Red Smith

This Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Red Smith Stakes drew a field of 10 running 11 furlongs on the Aqueduct turf course. Although it is a grade two race, there are few in the field proven at the level and/or distance.

One of those is Tide of the Sea, who on the Grade 2 William L. McKnight Stakes this past January and more recently won the Japan Turf Cup Stakes in October at a similar distance.
Another who is proven at the level is Channel Cat, who leads the field in career earnings at $1.4 million, including when victorious in the Grade 1 Man o' War Stakes at this distance on grass in May. However, Channel Cat has lost three races since then and the Man o' War was his only win this year (from six starts), with his last win before that coming in July, 2019.
Soldier Rising (GB) may fit with these based on his runner-up effort to eventual Breeders' Cup Turf winner Yabir in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational in September. However, his most recent effort was a disappointing fifth of 11 when favored in the Grade 2 Hill Prince Stakes last month.
Serve the King (GB) enters the Red Smith in excellent recent form, having won the John's Call Stakes one before last and then finishing second in the Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational last month.
Shamrocket won the Point of Entry Stakes at a mile and one-half just one month ago and might be up to the task moving into graded stakes company.
Price Talk beat Shamrocket prior to the Point of Entry and is another untried at the distance but he has won two in a row.
No Word was competitive at the level when second this past summer in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch Handicap but that was at a much shorter distance and he has never run farther than one mile and one-quarter.
Another who has never run the distance is Sanctuary City, but he did finish second in the Mohawk Stakes in his most recent start.
Corelli won the Grade 3 Singspiel Stakes at 10 furlongs on turf in August and may fit at this grade two level. He also may enjoy the longer distance as he missed by a head in a mile and one-half race in England before importing to the U.S. last year.
Value Engineering has never raced in a stakes but enters the race off a win and the one time he ran at this mile and three-eighths trip he missed winning by just a head on the wire.

Main contenders:

Given there are knocks with the horses likely to be favored by bettors, such as Soldier Rising (GB), who has yet to win in three U.S. starts, particularly when as the eight to five favorite last month in the Hill Prince Stakes, and with Tide of the Sea, who won the Japan Turf Cup takes in October but was beaten as the seven to five favorite last month in the Point of Entry Stakes, I'll go with Price Talk to win this year's Red Smith Stakes.

First, Price Talk is the second most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just eight times, but he's won four of those eight races, including two in a row. Price Talk won the first three races of his career, including when breaking his maiden at first asking, then breaking his maiden again after being disqualified from the first win. Last November, in only the fourth start of his career, Price Talk finished third in the Gio Ponti Stakes on the Aqueduct Turf, but when returning this spring did not run well in two races thereafter. Dropped into a claiming race in August, Price Talk won with a career-best 108 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure which was a stakes quality effort, as compared to the 109 figure Shamrocket earned winning the Point of Entry Stakes last month, the 106 figure Corelli earned winning the Singspiel Stakes in August and the 105 figure Serve the King (GB) earned when second in the Turf Classic Invitational last month.

Price Talk then bettered himself with a 113 figure winning near the end of September, in what turned out to a productive race from which Shamrocket came out of to win the Point of Entry. That 113 figure is tied for the best earned by any horse in this field in 2021 with the figure Channel Cat earned winning the Man o' War Stakes in May. As such, just repeating it is good enough to win the Red Smith, but I feel he may even better that effort and figure as this will be his third start off a layoff.

Serve the King (GB) has done very little wrong in 10 career starts, like Price Talk having won four times in his career. After winning the John's Call Stakes at the longer distance of one mile and five-eighths with a career-best 107 ™ figure, Serve the King (GB) finished well from sixth to second in the tougher Turf Classic Invitational with a similar 105 figure effort. Irad Ortiz, Jr. was aboard for both of the horse's “A” efforts and rides back in the Red Smith, giving Serve the King (GB) a strong chance for another competitive effort good enough to win.

Shamrocket has more second place finishes (6) in his 20 race career than wins (4), and even more third place finishes (7). Still, his win last month in the Point of Entry Stakes at a mile and one-half earned a career-best 109 figure competitive with the best in this field. Javier Castellano was aboard for that win, and for the colt's last win before that in June so that is a positive sign particularly as Castellano rode Value Engineering to victory last month as well as Price Talk in his two most recent wins. As such, Shamrocket rounds out a trio of horses I think stand out against the other seven in terms of their probability to win this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Channel Cat (113), Corelli (106), No Word (103), Sanctuary City (107), Soldier Rising (GB) (110), Tide of the Sea (105) and Value Engineering (107).

Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Price Talk
Serve the King (GB)
Shamrocket

Red Smith Stakes – Grade 2
Race 9 at Aqueduct
Saturday, November 20 – Post Time 3:43 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three-Eighths on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $200,000

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Equibase Analysis: Aug Lutes, Gidgetta Have The Edge In Bessarabian

This Saturday's Grade 2, $175,000 Bessarabian Stakes brings together a strong field of nine fillies and mares running seven furlongs on the all-weather Tapeta surface at Woodbine. All seven finished third or better in their most recent races, with five emerging victorious in those starts over the past two months.

Both Aug Lutes and Our Secret Agent earned their recent wins in stakes races, with Aug Lutes' win coming in the Glen Cove Stakes at the distance of the Bessarabian Stakes but on turf, while Our Secret Agent won the Hendrie Stakes on the Woodbine Main track at the slightly shorter distance of six and one-half furlongs.
Gidgetta ships into the barn of top trainer Josie Carroll after having won on turf in California last month in a very highly rated race which suggests she fits with these.
Lady Speightspeare, who is undefeated in three starts, won the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes on grass in September, 2020 then returned from nearly a year away from the races this September to win easily.
Emmeline may have just earned her first career win last month, in her ninth career start but finished second in both the Bison City Stakes and Woodbine Oaks prior to that so is another who appears to fit on all counts in this field.
Juxtapose enters the race off a third place finish in the Grade 3 Ontario Matron Stakes four weeks ago, and leads the field in career wins with six, from 13 starts.
La Libertee finished third in the Hendrie Stakes behind Our Secret Agent after a troubled start and can improve.
Spun Glass ships in from Maryland for trainer Michael Trombetta, who also saddles Aug Lutes, and won the only time she raced on an all-weather surface previously.
Last but certainly not least is Tuned, who just won the All Along Stakes on turf at Laurel for her third straight win.

Main win contenders:

Even with so many of the eight entrants proven in stakes or entering the race off top efforts, Aug Lutes and Gidgetta appear to have a significant edge over the rest based on their most recent efforts. Aug Lutes gets slight preference of the pair, not only because she has won four of five career races and finished second in the other, but because she's on a pattern for significant improvement off a career-best 102 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure earned last month posting the 19-1 upset in the Glen Cove Stakes at Belmont. That race, her first ever on turf, was run at the same seven furlong distance of the Bessarabian. Right before that Aug Lutes rallied from 10th to second in the Duchess Stakes at this seven furlong trip on the Tapeta main track at Woodbine. Jockey Antonio Gallardo, who is one of the top jockeys at Woodbine, rode Aug Lutes to that win at Presque Isle Downs in September, which followed a 10 month layoff, then rode her again in the Duchess. Likely to take another step forward as a lightly raced three year old, off the pattern of figures from 88 to 95 to 102, and proven to love the all-weather main track surface, Aug Lutes may be very tough to beat in this race.

That being said, Gidgetta may give Aug Lutes all she can handle if she takes to the surface as it appears she might based on her two recent workouts after shipping in from California. Never worse than third in five sprint races this year on turf, Gidgetta earned a career-best 108 ™ figure when finishing second in May, then two races later in a sprint earned a 105 figure before a 104 figure effort winning by a nose last month. Owned and bred by famous sports radio host Jim Rome (Jungle Racing), Gidgetta is showing every sign of running as well on the Tapeta all-weather surface as she did on turf. In her first local workout on October 30, Gidgetta worked :47.8 for a half-mile which was the 13th best of 90 workouts at the distance on the day. Then, in her most recent workout on November 8, the filly worked the same half-mile in a scintillating 47 flat which was the best workout of the day for the distance. With Patrick Husbands getting on for top trainer Josie Carroll and with it likely Gidgetta is going to run another “A” race like her last four sprints, the stretch run of this race between her and Aug Lutes promises to be very exciting.

Our Secret Agent has to be considered a contender to win as well. Her consistent career record of 3-6-3 in 12 career sprint races tells us she shows up with a competitive effort every time. As part of that record, Our Secret Agent finished third in the 2020 Bessarabian as well as second in the 2020 Duchess Stakes (with a career-best 100 figure), the same race Aug Lutes finished second in this year. Our Secret Agent also just won the Hendrie Stakes at the slightly shorter distance of six and one-half furlongs last month. The addition of blinkers for that race appears to have made a big difference, as did the jockey change to Kazushi Kimura, who had not ridden the filly since July of 2020, also to victory. With her last two sprint efforts yielding 98 and 99 figures not too far from the best efforts of Gidgetta and Aug Lutes, Our Secret Agent may have what it takes to win this race and even if she doesn't win she is highly probable to finish second or third as she's done so many times previously.
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The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Emmeline (101), Juxtapose (100), La Libertee (91), Lady Speightspeare (98), Spun Glass (96) and Tuned (104).

Win Contenders:
Aug Lutes
Gidgetta
Our Secret Agent

Bessarabian Stakes – Grade 2
Race 8 at Woodbine
Saturday, N0vember 13 – Post Time 5:16 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
Fillies and Mares, Three Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $175,000

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