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Equibase Analysis: Pneumatic, Art Collector Both Poised To Upset Preakness Stakes

Overview: Kentucky Derby upset winner Authentic returns in the Grade 1, $1 million Preakness Stakes, with Derby third place finisher Mr. Big News trying to improve his finish, as well as Max Player and Ny Traffic who finished fifth and eighth, respectively, in the race. Two horses that were expected to run in the Derby but did not, Art Collector and Thousand Words, appear to be legitimate challengers to the likely betting favorite. Art Collector won both the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes and Ellis Park Derby before a minor issue resulted in him passing the Derby. Thousand Words, who won the Shared Belief Stakes in August, briefly fell in the paddock before the Derby and had to withdraw. Other new shooters include the filly Swiss Skydiver, runner-up in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks last month. Another potential contender is Pneumatic, winner of the Pegasus Stakes in August. Liveyourbeastlife was competitive at the level when second in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes the first weekend of September, with Jesus' Team close behind in third in that race. Excession hasn't been seen since March but appears to fit as well off his second place finish in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in his most recent start. However, that race was more than six months ago.

Contender analysis: In spite of Authentic winning the Kentucky Derby rather easily and gamely by a length and three-quarters, I think an upset is brewing and the horse which is capable of that upset is Pneumatic. In recent history, the Derby winner has won four of the last 10 editions of the Preakness when they have run in the race. However, that means there have been six occasions the Derby winner has been beaten. I'll take those odds, particularly this year where the number of horses who didn't run in the Derby appear to be every bit as fast as the Derby winner. Pneumatic is the most lightly raced horse in the Preakness field and I think that gives him an edge.

Starting his career in February, Pneumatic won first out in a sprint and has continued to improve, mature, and run faster in each race since then. After stretching out to a mile in his second start in April, Pneumatic improved again when third in the Matt Winn Stakes and even when fourth in the Belmont Stakes in June took another step forward. His pattern of Equibase Speed Figures from his debut through the Belmont (90, 96, 98, 101) denotes a 3-year-old getting physically and mentally stronger with each and every race. Then, in the Pegasus Stakes in mid-August, Pneumatic took a drastic step forward to earn a 113 figure. Putting that figure in perspective, Authentic earned a 109 figure in the Derby while Swiss Skydiver earned the same 109 figure when runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks. Thousand Words' 107 figure in the Shared Belief and the 104 figure Art Collector earned in the Ellis Park Derby were both lower as compared to Pneumatic. Then there's the matter of this mile and three-sixteenths distance. Aside from the fact Swiss Skydiver won the Alabama Stakes and Authentic won the Kentucky Derby at the distance of one mile and one-quarter, no other horse has won at the distance. However, Pneumatic is by Uncle Mo, and per STATS Race Lens Uncle Mo has sired the most stakes race winners at distances from nine and one-half to 10 furlongs compared to all the other sires of Preakness entrants. Trained by North American leading trainer Steve Asmussen, who won the Preakness in 2007 (Curlin) and in 2009 (Rachel Alexandra), if Pneumatic continues to improve as it appears he should, he could win the Preakness at high odds.

Art Collector, who was likely to be the second betting choice behind Tiz the Law in the Derby, did not enter the race when sustaining a mild injury to his heel prior to the race. That might have been the best thing to happen to this immensely talented colt, as he's come back to put in three superb workouts. This suggests Art Collector is in the same top form he has demonstrated since returning from five and one-half months off in May and winning four straight races. After a dominant victory in the Blue Grass Stakes in July with a 102 figure, he ran even better in the Ellis Park Derby with a 104 figure. In both those races, Art Collector was drawing off at the end, suggesting he's a horse which should have no issues with the added sixteenth of a mile in the Preakness. Having the ability to win on the lead or from off the pace, Art Collector is likely to be in the thick of the action in the Preakness from the start and right down to the finish line.

Authentic has been nearly perfect in his career, winning five times and finishing second once. After taking the Haskell Stakes with a career-best 109 figure in July at one mile and one-eighth, Authentic repeated the effort with the same figure in the Derby while leading from start to finish. Considering his last four wins have been earned when leading from start to finish, there is some concern as to what will happen if other horses decide to contest him for the lead. Stablemate Thousand Words (also trained by Bob Baffert) led from start to finish in the Shared Belief Stakes last month and might try to battle for the lead in spite of Baffert's strategy to the contrary, particularly since he is adding blinkers. Art Collector, Ny Traffic and Swiss Skydiver could all be hot on Authentic's heels from the start as well. Still, his Derby effort was very good and any improvement off that race could make him a formidable opponent in the Preakness.

Swiss Skydiver will try to repeat the feat of another filly, Rachel Alexandra, who won the Preakness in 2009 after competing in the Kentucky Oaks. Rachel Alexandra won the Oaks, while Swiss Skydiver finished second in the race this year, but Swiss Skydiver ran the best race of her career in doing so, earning the same 109 figure Authentic did one day later winning the Derby. Prior to that, Swiss Skydiver won the 10 furlong Alabama Stakes in handy fashion and it's possible the return of a 19 day layoff may have been too quick of a turnaround. Rested four weeks this time, Swiss Skydiver has come back to put in two very strong workouts and I expect the filly to be very competitive in this race.

The rest of the Preakness Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures is Excession (100), Jesus' Team (109), Liveyourbeastlife (107), Mr. Big News (105), Max Player (105), Ny Traffic (109) and Thousand Words (107).

Win contenders:
Pneumatic
Art Collector
Swiss Skydiver
Authentic

Preakness Stakes – Grade 1
Race 11 at Pimlico
Saturday, Oct. 3 – Post Time 5:36 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Sixteenths
For 3-Year-Olds
Purse: $1 Million
TV: NBC 4:30 – 6 PM ET

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Pimlico on Preakness Stakes Day – Saturday, Oct. 3 at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and most online wagering sites.

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Equibase Analysis: Notable Exception Could Post The Upset In American Pharoah Stakes

The Grade 1, $300,000 American Pharoah Stakes is a “Win and You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile the first full weekend in November at Keeneland Race Course. Of the eight entrants, only one (Waspirant) has won a route race of a mile or more, doing so last month to break his maiden in his second career start, and only one (Weston) has won a stakes race, having proven victorious in the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes at seven furlongs in August. However, the other six all have the potential to take that leap forward and run well enough to win, such as Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity runner-up Spielberg, who is still a maiden as he finished second in his only other race to date.

Get Her Number led from the start in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes just 19 days ago and settled for fourth at the end but was beaten just a pair of noses for the runner-up spot. Dyn O Mite was much further back in fifth in the Del Mar Futurity while Rombauer was sixth in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf and both hope to be more competitive. Notable Exception is a truly unknown quantity as he is the only horse not to have run locally as he broke his maiden in his debut 22 days ago at Arlington Park in Illinois. Touchdown Brown rounds out the field and enters the race off a half-length defeat in the I'm Smokin Stakes (restricted to California bred horses) around one turn three weeks ago.

In spite of only having run once and not having run around two turns, Notable Exception is my top choice to win this year's American Pharoah Stakes. In his debut on September 4, Noble Exception demonstrated a lot of physical and mental quality as he battled for the lead from the start then relinquished it briefly before a half-mile had been run. Reasserting himself on the turn, Notable Exception drew off to a three length lead with an eighth of a mile to go before extending the lead to five and one-quarter lengths at the end. Since that time, Notable Exception returned to trainer Jack Sisterson's base at Keeneland and put in a strong :59.8 five furlong workout to signal he's getting stronger every day as a two year old should be at this time of year. The 64 Equibase Speed Figure was unremarkable compared to some of the others in this race, but 2-year-olds have been known to improve markedly from one race to the next and that is what I am expecting of this colt. Most of all, Notable Exception has a pedigree which tells me he will run very well in this mile and one-sixteenth race. Using STATS Race Lens to look at what other foals of sire Street Sense have done, I note that thirteen sons and daughters of the sire have run in stakes races for two year olds, with four individual horses having emerged victorious. Perhaps as telling is the fact that Notable Exception has a half-brother (same dam) who won three of his first four races in 2017 and 2018 including the Shared Belief Stakes. As Notable Exception was particularly impressive winning his only race and with no doubts about his ability to stretch out to this distance and run well, I think he can win this race.

Waspirant finished fourth in his debut, in a sprint, at 30 to 1 odds on August 8 then returned just 21 days later at a mile and was an entirely different horse. In that second career start, Waspirant stalked the pacesetter by a half-length through the opening half-mile, was second with an eighth of a mile to go then got up late to win by three-quarters of a length. That was a pretty professional effort for a horse making only the second start of his career. Improving to an 81 figure, Waspirant now adds blinkers, likely as a result of a suggestion by jockey Umberto Rispoli, who missed winning the riding title at the recently concluded Del Mar meeting by one win (behind Flavien Prat). The blinkers should help Waspirant keep down distractions and so he should improve. That improvement, coupled with the fact he is the only horse in the field with a win around two-turns on dirt, Waspirant should be a strong contender down to the wire in the American Pharoah Stakes.

Touchdown Brown won impressively in his debut in June, at four and one-half furlongs, earning a phenomenal 96 figure which was stakes quality. Entering the Graduation Stakes for his next start, Touchdown Brown finished last of seven while never threatening as the six to five betting favorite. Blinkers were added for his following race on September 4 in the I'm Smokin Stakes and the colt responded with a very game effort when beaten only a half-length, rebounding to a 95 figure while four lengths clear of the next horse. Interestingly enough, blinkers come off for the American Pharoah but that's likely a method to curtail the colt's early speed and get him to relax as he may have other company near the front. Still, Touchdown Brown may not be a need-the-lead type as he rallied from third in his debut win without blinkers. As a son of Cairo Prince, there's little doubt Touchdown Brown will run even better at this longer distance as per STATS Race Lens the sire has produced five dirt route stakes winners from 13 individual horses which have competed at this level. With the ground saving rail and a potential pace battle on the front end, Touchdown Brown could be rallying strongly to win.

Spielberg and Get Her Number are notable for a couple of reasons but I feel they don't have the same probability to win compared to Notable Exception, Waspirant or Touchdown Brown. Both fit as proven competitive in stakes but both wear blinkers and appear to have the same need-the-lead style which means they could run faster than average in the early stages and be vulnerable to being passed late. Spielberg finished second in his debut with an 85 figure then second again in the Del Mar Futurity. In both races he was beaten by Dr. Schivel, whose connections recently announced is getting the rest of the year off to prepare for the Road to the Kentucky Derby in 2021. Get Her Number won his debut at five furlongs on turf in August with an 86 figure then stretched out to a mile, also on grass, in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes three weeks ago. In that race Get Her Number led easily in the early stages then had to fight head-and-head starting with a quarter mile to go, eventually settling for fourth but beaten by a pair of noses for the runner-up spot. Also worth mentioning is Weston, who won at four and one-half furlongs in his debut in June with a 93 figure, but then in spite of winning the Best Pal Stakes at six furlongs regressed to an 84 figure then again to 77 when third and nearly four lengths behind runner-up Spielberg in the Del Mar Futurity earlier this month.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Dyn O Mite (84) and Rombauer (85).

Win Contenders:
Notable Exception
Waspirant
Touchdown Brown

American Pharoah Stakes – Grade 1
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, September 26 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Two Year Olds
Purse: $300,000

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Equibase Analysis: War Of Will, March To The Arch Stand Out In Woodbine Mile

The Grade 1, $1 million Ricoh Woodbine Mile is always a highly anticipated fixture as the northern hemisphere transitions from summer to fall and this year's edition is no exception. A “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Mile, this year's edition drew a strong field of eight, led by a pair of standouts from the barn of Mark Casse in War of Will and March to the Arch. War of Will is one of those, perhaps best remembered for winning the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes in 2019. However, the talented colt who leads the field in career earnings at $1.7 million, ran on turf in the first four races of his career and enters the race off a win on grass in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile in July. March to the Arch proved he belonged in top company on grass when winning the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes in June, 2019 and renewed that form last month when victorious in the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes at Woodbine.

Admiralty Pier finished second in the King Edward and certainly fits in this field as a contender, as does recent Grade 3 Vigil Stakes runner-up Olympic Runner. Armistice Day won the Toronto Cup Stakes in 2019, the same race March to the Arch won the previous year, and makes his third start off a layoff so he may have a say in the outcome as well. Value Proposition (GB) has just five races under his belt but his third place effort in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes this summer suggests he has enough talent to be a factor. Even more lightly raced is Shirl's Speight, who has run two races to date. However, this three year old who was considered for the Kentucky Derby earlier this month is a perfect two-for-two in his career and has potential to surprise a few people with another top effort.

Last, but certainly not least, is the mare Starship Jubilee, who is second in career earnings at $1.6 million. Starship Jubilee has won 18 races in her career including six on the Woodbine turf. She enters the race off a fourth place effort in the Grade 1 Diana Stakes at Saratoga and won the Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes prior to that and a repeat of that effort, or when winning the Grade 1 E. P. Taylor Stakes last October at Woodbine, gives her a more than decent shot at being in the thick of the action at the finish in this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

War of Will may be best known for winning the Preakness Stakes in 2019 but when considering his chances to win this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile on turf one need look no further than his races before getting on the Road to the Derby last year, and his most recent starts. Being by a tremendous turf sire in War Front, War of Will began his career on turf in the fall of 2018, finishing third before entering the Summer Stakes still as a maiden in only the second start of his career. Nearly pulling off the upset at 10/1 in that race when leading late before settling for second, War of Will then nearly won the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland when fourth in a blanket finish on the wire. After a fifth place finish in the 2018 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and after breaking his maiden on dirt, War of Will set his sights on the Kentucky Derby, winning the Lecomte Stakes and Risen Star Stakes before poorer efforts in the Louisiana Derby and an eighth place finish in the Kentucky Derby. After rebounding to win the Preakness, War of Will finished third or worse in five races on dirt before returning to the turf. The first of those efforts came in the Shoemaker Mile in May in which he raced close up early before tiring to fifth in a ten horse field. A little of six weeks later, War of Will arguably ran his best race ever, gamely rallying in the stretch to win the Maker's Mark Mile by a nose and earning a 115 Equibase Speed Figure, the best winning figure of his career. The reason for that effort appears to be the removal of blinkers for that race so there is every reason to believe the effort, and its winning result, are repeatable, making War of Will the one to beat in this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

March to the Arch is also a strong contender to win the Ricoh Woodbine Mile. On six occasions in 21 career turf races, March to the Arch has come out on top. The best of those came last year came when he won the Wise Dan Stakes with a strong 104  figure. However, as a five year old March to the Arch has run even better. In his second start of 2020, March to the Arch fought gamely and lost by a nose and a head in the Tampa Bay Stakes with a career-best 115 figure. Following a poor 10th place effort in this year's Shoemaker Mile, March to the Arch was only beaten two lengths although sixth when defending his title in the Wise Dan before returning to Woodbine last month, where he won the Toronto Cup Stakes in 2018. Prepping for the Ricoh Woodbine Mile last month in the King Edward Stakes, March to the Arch was quite impressive in rallying from last in the field of eight to assert himself late and win by two and one-quarter lengths. The 112 figure was the second best last race figure in the field, bettered only by that of War of Will, who is also trained by Mark Casse. Getting the ground saving rail for this race, March to the Arch appears to be the biggest challenge to War of Will and has every right to win his second straight graded stakes in a row at the distance of one mile on turf.

Admiralty Pier led from the start in the King Edward and although beaten by two and one-quarter lengths at the end by March to the Arch ran one of the best races of his career. Earning a 109 figure for in the King Edward, Admiralty Pier is likely to be the controlling speed in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile. He won the Tampa Bay Derby with a career-best 115 figure in February, defeating March to the Arch in the process, and he's on a pattern to get back to that type of effort as he earned a 103 figure when second in the Connaught Cup in July before a 109 figure in the King Edward. As such, we should not rule out the possibility Admiralty Pier could post the upset in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Armistice Day (103), Olympic Runner (99), Shirl's Speight (97) Starship Jubilee (119 in 2018) and Value Proposition (GB) (99).

Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
War of Will
March to the Arch
Admiralty Pier

Ricoh Woodbine Mile – Grade 1
Race 9 at Woodbine
Saturday, September 19 – Post Time 5:59 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

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Equibase Analysis: Ny Traffic Top Chance To Upset Derby Favorite Tiz The Law

The long awaited 146th running of the Grade 1, $3 million Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve drew 17 horses, and Tiz the Law, for a total of 18. The reason Tiz the Law is separated from the rest is his body of work this spring and summer has been nothing short of phenomenal. Winning all four races he has run in 2020, Tiz the Law is the only horse in the field to have won at the Derby distance of one mile and one-quarter. That win came in the Travers Stakes last month in as workmanlike a fashion as I've ever seen. The one-eyed and aptly named Finnick the Fierce is the only one of the other 17 that has ever finished in front of Tiz the Law. That occurred in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November when Finnick the Fierce finished second and Tiz the Law finished third. Since then, Finnick the Fierce has run well on occasion without winning, with the best of those efforts coming when third in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby in May.

Of the rest, Tiz the Law has already beaten Max Player, Sole Volante and South Bend. Max Player won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes in February but has been beaten by an average of six lengths in two tries vs Tiz the Law since then. Sole Volante was sixth behind Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes in June but he did win the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in February and is one of just a few in the field with breeding to run the 10 furlong trip successfully. South Bend was a late entrant into this race after some withdrawals earlier in the week. His last win came last October at Churchill Downs in the Street Sense Stakes but he's winless in nine races since then. Authentic and Ny Traffic are likely to offer bettors who want to find potential value just that. Authentic just won the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes by a nose over Ny Traffic. Prior to that, Honor A.P. beat Authentic in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, before Honor A.P. was himself beaten by Thousand Words in the Shared Belief Stakes last month at Del Mar. Attachment Rate is another horse who has been doing okay at the level particularly when second behind Art Collector (who was not entered due to a slight injury this week) in the Ellis Park Derby last month. Money Moves has never run in a stakes race but he's a very lightly raced colt coming into the race off a career-best effort and has the breeding to run this far. Necker Island finished five lengths behind Attachment Rate in the Ellis Park Derby, the same position he finished in the Grade 3 Indiana Derby prior to that. Major Fed was the runner-up in the Indiana Derby, the same position he finished in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes in February. King Guillermo is another who ran well earlier this year in the division, first when posting the 49 to 1 upset in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby then when second in the Arkansas Derby in May. Storm the Court, who posted the 45 to 1 upset last fall in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, moves back to dirt after a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 La Jolla Stakes and may be able be competitive in this situation. Enforceable, Mr. Big News and Winning Impression round out the field, the first two entering off a non-threatening fourth and sixth place finishes, respectively, in the Blue Grass Stakes and the latter off a seventh place effort in the Ellis Park Derby.

It is very difficult to envision Tiz the Law not winning this year's Kentucky Derby. In normal years when the Derby is run in May, there may be a number of horses who are on patterns of improvement enough to give the likely favorite a run for his money. That is not the case this year, as Tiz the Law has run consistently fast in all four starts since making his first start as a three year old in February. Starting with the Holy Bull Stakes, Tiz the Law earned a 117  Equibase Speed Figure which is unheard of for a three year old in the winter. Nearly two months later the colt put in another display to win the Florida Derby with a 112 figure, then nearly two months later he ran similarly well with a 113 figure as he dominated the field by nearly four lengths in the Belmont Stakes. Running the mile and one-quarter distance of the Derby last month in the Travers Stakes, Tiz the Law was even more impressive, making a move on the turn to go from third to first by with half-length margin, then asserting himself to win by five and one-half lengths as he was eased up in the final yards having done the job and still saving something for this race. That effort earned a 115 figure. This is an incredibly gifted equine athlete who wants to win and can back up the desire with immense talent. He's also seasoned, having beaten 29 horses in his four starts this year. Likely to be stalking likely early leader Authentic and a couple of others going into the far turn, when jockey Manny Franco asks Tiz the Law for his usual burst of speed, it is unlikely any horse will have any response worthy of challenging the colt in the last eighth of a mile.

That being said, there are horses who can run well, some very well, who appear to have a better probability to finish second than may be indicated by high odds. In the unlikely event Tiz the Law falters, one of these horses can post the upset win. Ny Traffic is the first of that group. The first time he stretched out to two-turns, in January and in his fifth career start, Ny Traffic won impressively by six and one-half lengths. Following that the colt finished third in the Risen Star Stakes, second in the Louisiana Derby, second in the Matt Winn Stakes and second in the Haskell Stakes. His Haskell effort yielded a career-best 109  Figure and showed he might enjoy the mile and one-quarter distance in the Derby even more than the mile and one-eighth distance at which he was gaining ground on winner Authentic with every stride at the end. In the Haskell, Authentic was drawn inside Ny Traffic, allowing that one to get the lead from the start. In the Derby, Authentic is drawn on the far outside, and there are more than a few horse who may try to deny him the lead. If jockey Paco Lopez can put Ny Traffic into a stalking position while not going too wide into the first turn, this colt has a big shot to be second or third at high odds.

Money Moves is the most lightly raced horse in this year's Derby field, having run just three times. However, he may have the quality to compete favorably in this field. After winning the first two starts of his career in February and March, both around one turn, Money Moves stretched out to a mile and one-eighth at the end of July and faced older and more mature horses. Nevertheless, he showed ability and maturity, rallying to miss winning by a neck with a 109 figure. Housed in the top barn of Todd Pletcher and by Candy Ride, who produced multiple stakes winner Gun Runner, Money Moves is another who figures to be in the mid-pack early. Any continued improvement off that stakes quality effort and figure in his last race makes Money Moves another horse that can be in the top three at the least.

Sole Volante is one of just a few in this field who should not find the 10 furlongs of the Derby beyond his reach. We already know Tiz the Law has handled the trip so there are no concerns there. Before a very poor sixth place finish behind Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes, Sole Volante was first or second in three straight stakes on dirt, including a powerful effort in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in which he rallied from 15 lengths back to win by two and one-half lengths at the end. That effort earned a 108 figure as good as the 109 Ny Traffic and Authentic earned in the Haskell and those two should be much lower odds than Sole Volante. I am willing to ignore his poor recent Belmont Stakes effort, particularly since Sole Volante has put in three superb workouts – two at one mile and the last a sizzling five furlong drill on grass. The reason I think Sole Volante will have the stamina to successful contest the classic distance of 10 furlongs is because his dam (Light Blow), not only is by Kingmambo, who could run all day, but because she produced a horse that lost by a neck in a stakes race the only time he ran a mile and one quarter. On the other hand, Sole Volante likes to come from far back, so navigating past 15 to 17 other runners in the last quarter mile may be difficult.

Next, there are three more just outside the bubble of what I consider the most likely horse to win (Tiz the Law) and a trio who can finish second – Honor A. P., Thousand Words and Authentic. The reason mostly is because they've taken turns beating each other, with none of the three asserting himself in the process. Combined with posts which could be problematic given that they all have tactical speed that means they will have to be as lucky as they are good to run well. Honor A. P. has never been worse than second in five races, but he doesn't have the quick burst like Tiz the Law does and will need horses to come back to him in the late stages to succeed. Beaten by Authentic in the San Felipe Stakes in March with a 101 figure, Honor A. P. turned the tables on Authentic in the Santa Anita Derby with a 105 figure effort then was unable to mount the same rally last month in the Shared Belief Stakes, won by Thousand Words, although Honor A.P. did improve slightly to a 106 figure. Thousand Words had won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February with a career-best 107 figure, then regressed badly when fourth in the San Felipe. Even ignoring his poor effort over a sloppy track in the Oaklawn Stakes in April, he was no match for Uncle Chuck in the Los Alamitos Derby (92 figure). Rebounding to winning form in the Shared Belief with a 107 figure, that was a race in which Thousand Words led from start to finish, an unlikely scenario in the Derby with need-the-lead type Authentic also in the race. Authentic earned a career-best 109 figure in the Haskell, but that was earned leading from start to finish and it appears likely the colt will have to expend a good deal of energy getting past 17 other horses before the first turn to get the lead he likes. That early effort could be problematic in the last eighth of a mile when stalkers like Tiz the Law, Money Moves and Ny Traffic start to pick up steam, as does deep closer Sole Volante.

The rest of the Kentucky Derby field, with their best  Equibase Speed Figures is Attachment Rate (99), Enforceable (97), Finnick the Fierce (99), King Guillermo (110), Mr. Big News (96), Major Fed (96), Max Player (105), Necker Island (91), South Bend (103), Storm the Court (106) and Winning Impression (92).

Win contender:
Tiz The Law

Horses which can finish second and third, having a chance to win if the Tiz the Law does not fire, in preference order:
Ny Traffic
Money Moves
Sole Volante
Honor A. P.
Thousand Words
Authentic

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, Saturday May 4, at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and most online wagering sites.

Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve – Grade 1
Race 14 at Churchill Downs
Saturday, September 5 – Post Time 7:01 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
For Three Year Olds
Purse: $3 Million
TV: NBC 2:30 – 7:30 PM ET

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