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Equibase Analysis: Concert Tour, Caddo River Stand Out In Rebel

The $1 million Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, the local prep at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby, drew a field of eight 3-year-olds trying to earn the winner's share of 50 points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points system, not to mention the minimum $600,000 which goes to the winning owner. Among the eight, seven have two-turn experience and six have won a two-turn race, with four of those stakes winners and another stakes placed.

On the flip side, three of those with positive stakes experience are returning from layoffs ranging from 100 to 165 days and it might be a tough question to ask even those talented colts to run a winning race off those long layoffs. Get Her Number is one of those, having captured the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at the end of September. Another is Keepmeinmind, winner of the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the end of November. Super Stock finished third and second in three graded stakes last year, the most recent when the runner-up in the Street Sense Stakes at the end of October.

Then we move to the horses with the most recent efforts, with all five entering the Rebel Stakes following wins. Among that group, Caddo River and Concert Tour were stakes winners. Caddo River returned from a little over two months off to win the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on January 22, while Concert Tour won the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs at Santa Anita on February 6. Hozier enters the race off a maiden win at Santa Anita and shares the barn of Bob Baffert with Concert Tour. Big Lake and Twilight Blue both won their most recent races in allowance company and are trying to step up to the stakes level with similar efforts.

Having discounted the chances of all three horses with stakes credentials who are trying to win off lengthy layoffs – Get Her Number, Keepmeinmind and Super Stock, and believing the horses coming out of maiden and allowance wins may need a bit of maturing and seasoning to win a race at this level, it appears Concert Tour and Caddo River are standouts in terms of probability to win.

Concert Tour has won both starts of his career, the first a six furlong race on Jan. 15 with a 100 Equibase Speed Figure and the second when winning the San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 6 with an even better 106 figure which is the best any horse in the Rebel field has earned. Showing a lot of maturity when racing in third in the early stages, Concert Tour moved professionally to the lead in the final sixteenth of a mile and won by a half-length. Jockey Joel Rosario was aboard for both wins and rides back in the Rebel and the colt put in a snazzy six furlong workout in 1:11.4 on March 6 to show he's in tip-top form. Concert Tour has a fantastic pedigree for going long as a son of Street Sense out of a Tapit mare. Sons of Street Sense such as Maxfield, McKinzie and Avery Island have had a big impact the past few seasons in 3-year-old races and of course there's the Baffert factor as well. A simple STATS Race Lens query exemplifies what racing fans know internally about Baffert's success in three year old races, showing over the last five years Baffert trainees have won 33 of 95 dirt route graded stakes for three year olds. Additionally, there's no concern about a Baffert charge stretching out to a route for the first time in a graded stakes, as he won the 2020 Rebel with Nadal off a sprint, as well as the 2021 Sham Stakes with current early Kentucky Derby favorite Life is Good.

Caddo River was very impressive winning the Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 22 at Oaklawn by 10 lengths. Cruising to the lead from the start, Caddo River kept a steady pace to draw away by three lengths with a quarter mile to go, by six lengths with an eighth of a mile to go before coasting home. Earning a 101 figure, the same earned when winning his previous start in November, Caddo River could easily take a huge step forward in his second start off the layoff and run well enough to win the Rebel Stakes, particularly if allowed to control the pace from a rail he draws. Jockey Florent Geroux has been aboard for the colt's last two wins and rides back and the fact that Caddo River won over the track could give him a familiarity edge over Concert Tour. Although he's been training for many years, trainer Brad Cox truly burst into the big leagues the past few years, and on fewer starters than Baffert in three year old dirt route races his numbers are quite similar in terms of percentage. Cox has a record of 10 for 28 in three year old dirt route graded stakes over the past five years including Essential Quality, winner of the Southwest Stakes at the end of February, and Mandaloun, recent winner of the Risen Star Stakes. If Caddo River wins or even finishes second, that would give Cox three major players as we head into the biggest races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Big Lake (95), Get Her Number (88), Hozier (89), Keepmeinmind (91), Super Stock (93) and Twilight Blue (100).

Win Contenders:
Concert Tour
Caddo River

Rebel Stakes – Grade 2
Race 11 at Oaklawn Park
Saturday, March 13 – Post Time 6:16 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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Equibase Analysis: King Of Dreams Best Chance To Upset Candy Man Rocket In Tampa

This Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby provides 12 aspiring colts and geldings the opportunity to earn their share of the 85 points awarded (50 to the winner) on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” as well as the winner's share of the purse.

Leading the field is Candy Man Rocket, winner of the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last month, with third place finisher Hidden Stash hoping to improve and potentially turn the tables on Candy Man Rocket this time around.

Among the rest, four others have won stakes races but those wins came last year. Sittin On Go won the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes last summer but has not finished better than sixth in three stakes tries since then including when beaten 17 lengths in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes in January. Helium easily won the Display Stakes when last seen in October, but that race was run at seven furlongs and on an all-weather track so he has many questions to answer (distance, surface and layoff) in this situation. Boca Boy won the In Reality Stakes in September. Then, in his comeback in the Sam F. Davis last month, Boca Boy tired to fourth after setting the early pace and could have an even harder time holding the early lead today with the speedy Promise Keeper (coming in off a maiden win) in the field. Super Strong is a Kentucky bred colt who won his only start at Camarero Race Course in Puerto Rico when victorious in the seven furlong Group 1 Classico Agustin Mercado Revron Stakes in December.

Among the rest, King of Dreams led from start to finish at the distance of the Tampa Bay Derby last month on turf and may run as well on dirt. Unbridled Honor also won his most recent start, at Tampa Bay Downs, and like King of Dreams hopes to make a big step from maiden winner into the stakes ranks. Similarly, My Liberty just won over the track to break his maiden and will be attempting to step up in class as he races around two turns for the first time. Awesome Gerry finished second in the Jean Lafitte Stakes last November but was seventh and beaten 17 lengths in the Holy Bull in his most recent race. Moonlite Strike won races in November and December but was fourth and beaten more than 15 lengths in the Smarty Jones Stakes in his most recent race.

Similar to the analysis of the Fountain of Youth Stakes last week in which the winner of the most recent prep race over the track, Greatest Honour, appeared to be the one to beat, Candy Man Rocket is the horse the other 11 will have to defeat to win.

Candy Man Rocket proved his nine length victory in January was no fluke when winning by a shorter margin, just one length, in the Sam F. Davis Stakes last month. Although earning a 90 Equibase Speed Figure in the Sam F. Davis as compared to a 94 when winning a sprint before that, Candy Man Rocket did so very professionally when stalking pace setter Boca Boy from the start then taking over while three paths wide on the turn and holding off Nova Rags and Hidden Stash, who is running back in this race as well. It is likely Boca Boy will want the lead from the start as he's done in his last two races on dirt, and it is also likely Promise Keeper will have to go fast from the 11 post to get good position from the start, Candy Man Rocket will have a great stalking position under jockey Junior Alvarado from the ground saving three post. Although there are a couple of horses which have earned higher figures in their most recent starts, one of those (King of Dreams – 96) was on turf and the other (Helium – 93) was around one turn and more than four months ago, potentially giving Candy Man Rocket an edge with which he can win his second stakes race in a row.

That said, King of Dreams has an upset chance if he can transfer his turf form to dirt. The 96 figure he earned winning at this distance on turf at the end of January is the best figure earned by any horse in this field, period. He did lead from start to finish in that race but given he does not wear blinkers I do not believe he is a need-the-lead type similar to Boca Boy or Promise Keeper, and so he too could take up a stalking position in the early stages. Getting the services of Tampa Bay Downs leading jockey Samy Camacho is a good sign, as is the fact trainer that Juan Avila just saddled the 50-1 upset winner in the Davona Dale Stakes last weekend as well as the 49-1 upset winner in the 2020 Tampa Bay Derby, King Guillermo. Considering the dam is a daughter of A.P. Indy who has produced three dirt route winners from seven other foals, I have little doubt King of Dreams can transition successfully from turf to dirt and run a competitive race.

Hidden Stash was far back in eighth in the early stages of the Sam F. Davis last month, which is much farther back than he had been in his previous two route races last fall, both of which he won, earning 87 and 89 figures. Following two months off, Hidden Stash returned in the Sam F. Davis and the early pace was much faster than he experienced previously, which helps to explain why he was farther back than usual. Nevertheless, with three-sixteenths of a mile to go, Hidden Stash swung to the four path and commenced a rally from eighth to third, just a neck from the runner-up. Watching the replay, I note Hidden Stash was ridden out after the wire giving him a bit of an education in passing the top two finishers even though the race was over. Being a son of hot sire Constitution, whose son Tiz the Law won 2020 Florida Derby, I have little doubt Hidden Stash fits at this level. With veteran jockey Rafael Bejarano coming in from Kentucky to ride and with logical improvement in his second start off the layoff, Hidden Stash must be given a lot of respect as a contender to win the Tampa Bay Derby.

In spite of the potential to get into a hot early pace battle with Boca Boy, Promise Keeper is intriguing enough to consider as having a chance in this race. Also a son of Constitution, Promise Keeper stretched out to a mile for the first time last month in his second career start and dominated by five lengths in a field of 11, earning a 90 figure. His dam, the Curlin mare Mira Alta, produced stakes winner Wicked Awesome so there's a lot of quality in his pedigree. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden again by Luis Saez, if Promise Keeper can get the early lead over Boca Boy from his outside post and not expend too much energy he has potential to get confident and possibly hold off the challenges of Candy Man Rocket, King of Dreams and Hidden Stash.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Awesome Gerry (86), Boca Boy (84), Helium (93), Moonlite Strike (93), My Liberty (87), Sittin on Go (91), Super Strong (82) and Unbridled Honor (85).

Win Contenders, in probability order:
Candy Man Rocket
King of Dreams
Hidden Stash

Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby – Grade 2
Race 11 at Tampa Bay Downs
Saturday, March 6 – Post Time 5:25 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
Three Year Olds
Purse: $400,000

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Equibase Analysis: Drain The Clock On An Improving Pattern For Fountain Of Youth

This Saturday's Grade 2, $300,000 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park is the last major stepping stone to the Florida Derby on March 27. The Fountain of Youth also awards 50 important Road to the Kentucky Derby points to the winner.

Leading the field of 10 is Greatest Honour, who won the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes impressively last month over the track. Holy Bull runner-up Tarantino, who has never been worse than second in four races, and third place finisher Prime Factor, who will be making only the third start of his career, will try to improve enough to turn the tables on Greatest Honour.

Drain the Clock and King's Ovation finished first and second, respectively, in the Grade 3 Swale Stakes, a seven furlong race at Gulfstream on the same day as the Holy Bull and will try to run as well while trying two turns for the first time.

Fire at Will returns for this first start as a 3-year-old and following nearly four months away from the races, but won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf in his final start of 2020 and has the class to compete favorably if ready.

Sososubtle was an impressive four-length winner of a maiden race last month and takes a big step up in class. Papetu and Jirafales finished far back while fourth and fifth, respectively, in the Holy Bull and appear to have their work cut out for them. Tiz Tact Toe is still a maiden and winless in three races and rounds out the field.

Greatest Honour was well regarded by bettors as the second choice in the Holy Bull Stakes last month and rewarded his backers with a visually impressive win by almost six lengths. Rallying from seventh in the early stages, Greatest Honour swept past his rivals on the far turn while four paths wide to lead by a length in the stretch before drawing off with ease. Bringing his record to a perfect two-for-two at the distance of the Fountain of Youth, Greatest Honour earned a 103 Equibase Speed Figure. That was not his best figure, but the 106 figure Greatest Honour earned winning one race before the Holy Bull is the best figure earned by any horse in the field. The only other horse in the field to have broken the 100 threshold is Fire At Will, who earned a 105 figure winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last year. Considering how easily Greatest Honour won the Holy Bull, I think he could have run faster and earned a higher figure if needed and that is why he is the one to beat in this year's Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Drain the Clock appears to be on a pattern, that if continued, would allow him to run well enough to win the Fountain of Youth. On the same date of the Holy Bull last month at Gulfstream Park, Drain the Clock put in a visually impressive six length victory in geared down fashion and earning at 95 figure. Four weeks prior to that, Drain the Clock earned an 88 figure winning the Limehouse Stakes and if he can improve about the same seven points as he did in the Swale, Drain the Clock could run as well as Greatest Honour is expected to run. Excluding his effort in November when losing his jockey when a piece of equipment broke, Drain the Clock is a perfect four-for-four in his career. Although the Fountain of Youth will be his first attempt at two turns, the fact that he draws the ground saving rail and has shown the ability to stalk the pacesetter in second or third before winning suggests no matter how the early pace unfolds, Drain the Clock should have no problem being a very strong contender in this race.

Tarantino was no match for Greatest Honour when second and beaten 5 3/4 lengths in the Holy Bull, but he ran very well nevertheless. Earning a career-best 94 figure in his first race on dirt after three races on grass to start his career, Tarantino was nearly four lengths clear of the third horse in the field of nine. With jockey Edgard Zayas getting off to ride Drain the Clock, Tyler Gaffalione gets on and there is no issue with the quality of the man in the irons. Making his third start off a layoff suggesting physical improvement, and making his seconds start on dirt, there is every reason to believe Tarantino can take another step forward on his quest to be a contender as we move towards the Florida Derby next month and the Kentucky Derby in 10 weeks.

Fire At Will would certainly be a top contender for me if he were not coming back from nearly four months off and trying to go two turns on dirt for the first time against horses which have run well and much more recently. Fire at Will finished sixth in his career debut last summer then reeled off three straight wins, all in stakes. He improved from an 80 figure, to 96, to 105 when winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf in a field of 14. One of the wins came on a sloppy dirt track (in a race scheduled for turf) so it appears he can run on the surface just fine and there's no doubt he can run this far as he won the Pilgrim Stakes on turf at the distance. Still, it's a doubly big question to ask a horse to run well enough to win off this long of a layoff in a two turn race at this level and as such I'll be taking a stand against Fire At Will in this situation.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is King's Ovation (83), Jirafales (76), Papetu (89), Prime Factor (88), Sososubtle (93) and Tiz Tact Toe (78).

Win Contenders, in probability order:
Greatest Honour
Drain the Clock
Tarantino

Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes – Grade 2
Race 14 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, Feb. 27 – Post Time 6:10 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
Three Year Olds
Purse: $300,000

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Equibase Analysis: Red Lark Appears The One To Beat In Buena Vista

A field of 10 is entered to run in Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Buena Vista Stakes, a one mile turf test for fillies and mares at Santa Anita Park. Many of them are quite accomplished, including winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks last summer, Red Lark (IRE), who most recently finished fourth in the Grade 1 American Oaks following two and one-half months off.

Mucho Unusual enters the Buena Vista Stakes off wins in the Grade 3 Robert J. Frankel Stakes and the Grade 3 Megahertz Stakes and won the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive Stakes over the course last summer. Going to Vegas, who finished second in the American Oaks, and Sedamar, who finished second in the Megahertz, are both trying to move up a notch into the winner's circle in this grade 2 event.

Warren's Showtime was victorious in the similar Grade 3 Autumn Miss Stakes at a mile over the Santa Anita turf last October and is yet another with a serious chance at success. Nasty enters the race off a win over the course at the distance in the Lady Shamrock Stakes in December and was close at hand behind Warren's Showtime in the Autumn Miss two races prior to that so adds to the depth of the entrants in this race.

Charmaine's Mia just won the Grade 3 Las Cienegas Stakes at six furlongs and is stretching out to this distance and to two turns for the first time in a stakes. Sloane Garden (GB) won a pair of stakes on grass last spring and summer at Golden Gate Fields including the Luther Burbank Stakes and returns from four months on the bench so could need a race before being competitive against this field. Bohemian Bourbon showed she belongs at the level when third in the Grade 2 Royal North Stakes last summer but her recent fifth place effort in the Las Cienegas following three months off may indicate she's not yet back in top form. Heather's Grey moves into stakes company off a sixth place effort in a sprint and may be overmatched.

Red Lark (IRE) has won only two times in 14 career starts including nine since importing to North America 13 months ago in January, 2020. After moving to turf in her second stateside start and winning, Red Lark (IRE) lost four races in a row, although she was competitive and never worse than fourth in any of those races. Then last summer came a breakout performance in the Del Mar Oaks with a visually impressive stretch run and upset at 19 to 1 odds. That effort yielded a career best 109 Equibase Speed Figure. Sent to Keeneland to run in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, Red Lark (IRE) ran creditably against some of the top turf fillies in the country, ending up fourth and improving to a 111 figure.

Rested two and one-half months and returning at a distance she had never run previously, one mile and one-quarter, Red Lark (IRE) rallied from ninth of 10 to get fourth at the end in the American Oaks and was only beaten a nose for third and less than a length for second. The 104 figure earned in the American Oaks was pretty good considering the layoff and distance. Cutting back to one mile for the Buena Vista, it must be noted Mucho Unusual finished second in the 2019 American Oaks before a big effort when third to multiple stakes winners (Keeper of the Stars and Jolie Olympica) in the 2020 Buena Vista. As such, Red Lark should improve considerably in her second start off a layoff and appears to be the one to beat in this race.

Nasty is a lightly raced, newly turned four year old filly, who has won three of six races on grass to date in her career. The first of the trio was a rousing eight length win last June in her turf debut at Indiana Grand and another win one month later. Following a poor effort in August, Nasty was shipped to California and to the barn of Richard Baltas and she nearly won the Autumn Miss Stakes as she made the lead with an eighth of a mile to go and was beaten a neck and a half-length on the wire off a two month layoff, earning a career-best 104 figure. After a poor effort one race before last, Nasty rebounded in the Lady Shamrock Stakes at the distance of the Buena Vista at the end of December. In that race Nasty duplicated the 104 figure she earned two races earlier while setting a strong pace and holding on gamely over Counterparty Risk, who flattered her when winning the Endeavour Stakes two weeks ago in Florida. The race also produced another next out winner and a near winner so it turns out to be a “KEY RACE” from which Nasty has potential to improve upon and win again.

Mucho Unusual has four wins in eight career tries at this mile turf trip. The most recent of those came just last month in the Megahertz Stakes, her fifth career win in nine races on the Santa Anita turf course she's shown a fondness for. Although the Megahertz effort only resulted in an 88 figure, Mucho Unusual has run well enough to be competitive with Red Lark (IRE) and Nasty if they repeat or improve upon their best efforts. One of those efforts which would make Mucho Unusual a strong contender in this year's Buena Vista came when she earned a career-best 110 figure when third, beaten just one length, in last year's Buena Vista. Mucho Unusual ran similarly well when taking the Rodeo Drive Stakes last September with a 107 figure and then two races later when winning the Robert J. Frankel Stakes with the same 107 figure. Given that strong record of success at the distance and currently in the best form of her career, Mucho Unusual has every right to succeed in this year's Buena Vista Stakes.

The rest of the Buena Vista Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Bohemian Bourbon (101), Charmaine's Mia (115 sprinting), Going to Vegas (108), Heather's Grey (105), Sedamar (109), Sloane Garden (GB) (99) and Warren's Showtime (107).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Red Lark (IRE)
Nasty
Mucho Unusual

Buena Vista Stakes – Grade 2
Race 7 at Santa Anita
Saturday, February 20, 2021 – Post Time 6:30 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Fillies and Mares, Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $200,000

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