equibase analysis | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Galt, Simplification Most Likely Upsetters In Holy Bull Field

This Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes is the first of three significant stakes races for newly turned 3-year-olds in South Florida. Nine have signed on for this race and the best of them will likely run four weeks from now in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, hoping to go on to the Florida Derby in April and then onto the Kentucky Derby.

Leading the field in accomplishments is Mo Donegal, last seen two months ago when victorious in the G2 Remsen Stakes. Simplification is another stakes winner, having captured the Mucho Macho Man Stakes easily by four lengths on New Year's Day. Tiz the Bomb finished fast from 12th to get second when last seen in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and won his only previous dirt route by a whopping 14 lengths. Cajun's Magic returns from more than four months on the bench following a win in the FTBOA Florida Sire Dr. Fager Stakes then runner-up finishes in two other stakes races restricted to horses bred in Florida. Giant Game finished third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile on the same day Tiz the Bomb ran in the Juvenile Turf and appears to fit with these, as does G2 Kentucky Jockey Club third place finisher White Abarrio. Then there's a pair of recent impressive maiden winners in Spin Wheel and Galt, the former having rallied from last of 12 to win by a nose and the latter having drawn off easily by four lengths when last seen. Eloquist rounds out the field. He finished a well-beaten fifth in the Remsen and then last of six in an allowance race last month at Gulfstream Park.

Main Win Contenders:

Although Galt just earned his first win in his most recent start, the third of his career, he will be my top pick, and a strong one at that, in this year's Holy Bull Stakes. There are many reasons to think this son of Medaglia d'Oro can win, the first of which is that he is trained by Bill Mott, who has an uncanny ability to know when his recently turned 3-year-olds are the right caliber to compete in Road to the Derby stakes races. When taking blinkers off and running in a dirt route for the first time on Dec. 26, Galt ran tremendously better than he had in his two prior starts. Drawing the same rail position he gets for the Holy Bull, Galt saved ground then came around a pair of runners to rally into a very slow pace in the stretch before drawing off decisively.

Admittedly, the 84 Equibase® Speed Figure isn't nearly as fast as the 93 figure likely favorite Mo Donegal earned last December winning the Remsen Stakes, but it was a big improvement off his previous two races. As he's making his second start following 2 1/2 months off, Galt is going to move up considerably off the effort. Back to Mott's record 3-year-olds early in the year coming off maiden wins and running in stakes races, the Hall-of-Fame trainer saddled Tacitus to win the 2019 Tampa Bay Derby off a maiden win, saddled Modernist to win the 2020 Risen Star Stakes off a maiden win, saddled Candy Man Rocket to win the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes off a maiden win, and saddled Hofburg to a runner-up finish in the 2018 Florida Derby.

Another reason I expect Galt to run very well in a graded stakes race is he is a full brother to two-time Champion Songbird, winner of $4.6 million and nine consecutive graded stakes around two turns in her three year old campaign. As the reason for the big turnaround in form on Dec. 26 is easily identifiable (blinkers off) and as he won without Lasix so racing without the medication is not an issue here, I expect Galt to post the mild upset and throw his name in the ring as a strong contender on the Road to the Derby, staring in the Holy Bull Stakes.

However, in order to win, Galt is going to have to run down Simplification, who enters the race off a wire-to-wire win in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Year's Day with a field high 98 figure. Two races before that, Simplification won a six furlong sprint by a whopping 16 and three-quarter lengths with a 99 figure. Javier Castellano rode the colt to his last win and will be in the saddle again in the Holy Bull. I have no concern about the fact that Simplification is trying two-turns for the first time as (per Race Lens) relatively new sire Not This Time has had six of 18 of his sons or daughters win two-turn races to date, including recent Lecomte Stakes runner-up Epicenter, who had won the Gun Runner Stakes prior to that. As such, Simplification has a big chance to get out on an easy lead and get very brave just as he did last month in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, and no matter how successful Galt might be in closing into a slow pace as he was in his victory at the end of December, it may be too tall of an order in this situation.

Although most of the others have credentials to be competitive, with the exception of Eloquist, who is overmatched, they are all giving away some physical edge to Galt and Simplification. For example, Mo Donegal has been away from the races since Dec. 4, and a Race Lens query reveals trainer Todd Pletcher possesses a four for 30 record with 3-year-olds in dirt route stakes over the last five years coming back from such a layoff. The same can be said for Tiz the Bomb, who needed a sprint prep race last spring before winning a route.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Cajun's Magic (94), Giant Game (90), Eloquist (74), Mo Donegal (93), Spin Wheel (86), Tiz the Bomb (109 on turf) and White Abarrio (94).

Win Contenders, with an equal probability to win at about 33 percent (2 to 1)
Galt
Simplification

Holy Bull Stakes – Grade 3
Race 11 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, February 5 – Post Time 5:10 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
Three Year Olds
Purse: $250,000

Source of original post

Equibase Analysis: Endorsed, Chess Chief Candidates To Fill Out Pegasus Exacta Behind Knicks Go

Saturday's Grade 1, $3 Million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes has been touted for nearly three months as a matchup between Breeders' Cup Classic winner Knicks Go and Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Life Is Good. Combined, these two powerful horses won nine of 12 races in 2021, with Knicks Go having kicked off his campaign with a victory in this race one year ago.

Seven others entered and none are slouches, though few are as accomplished as the top pair. Sir Winston has won six of 19 career starts including the G1 Belmont Stakes in 2019 and he most recently won the G3 Valedictory Stakes last month. Chess Chief won the G2 New Orleans Classic Stakes last March at the distance of the Pegasus World Cup and also enters the race off a win, in the Tenacious Stakes near the end of the year. Title Ready won the G3 Louisiana Stakes a little over a year ago and has only raced three times since then, most recently when sixth in the Tinsel Stakes in mid-December. Endorsed was a fast closing second in the G3 Mr. Prospector Stakes last month at Gulfstream and is approaching the half-million mark in career earnings, but his last victory was in May of 2020. Empty Tomb finished second in the Queens County Stakes in his most recent race but has never won a stakes race. Similarly, Commandeer won his final two races of 2021 but this will be his first try in a stakes race in his 11th career start. Stilleto Boy rounds out the field, with a two-for-12 record including a win in the Iowa Derby last July.

Analysis:

Considering both Knicks Go and Life Is Good have earned each and every one of their 15 career wins (combined) when leading from the start, the first question to ask ourselves is whether this is a case of the irresistible force versus the immovable object. One potential scenario is that both horses hook up from the start and go so fast in the first portions of the race they are out of gas by the time the field hits the home stretch, with the race won in an upset by one of the other seven. Certainly after about an eighth of a mile has been run we will know if that is the case.

I believe that will not be the case, because Knicks Go is faster than Life Is Good when push comes to shove, and the fact Knicks Go gets the rail whereas Life Is Good will break from the four post. Those factors should give Knicks Go the edge. Whether Life Is Good can relax in second position in the early stages then pass Knicks Go late is a question to be answered as the race is being run. My belief is that will not happen.

Additionally, since Empty Tomb comes into the race off the two best races of his career, having led through the opening half-mile in both, that leads to more early pressure on Life Is Good. Since not leading in the early stages is foreign to Life Is Good, he can be passed late by one of a couple of horses who will be far back in the early stages.

Contenders to win:

In terms of total speed, as measured by  Equibase Speed Figures, Knicks Go has an advantage in that department as well, with a 117 figure in last year's Pegasus World Cup following a rest after winning the 2020 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (won by Life Is Good last year). Following the Pegasus, Knicks Go earned a 119 figure winning the Cornhusker Handicap (at the distance of the Pegasus), a 118 figure winning the Whitney Stakes (at the distance of the Pegasus), and a 119 figure winning the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Although Life Is Good equaled that 119 figure in his Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile win, he has never run this mile and one-eighth trip whereas Knicks Go has won four of five starts at the distance. Life is Good's other wins last year consisted of 115 figures in the San Felipe Stakes and when beaten a nose in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes last summer. Additionally, the second and third place finishers (Ginobili and Restrainedvengence) beaten by Life Is Good in the Mile aren't up to the same standards as the next two behind Knicks Go (Medina Spirit and Essential Quality) in the Classic. Therefore Knicks Go appears to be the one to beat by far in this years' Pegasus World Cup Invitational, and as stated earlier I am taking the stand Life Is Good can be beaten for second as well.

The horse with the best “counter-energy” profile appears to be Endorsed, and it is not totally improbable he could post the upset if Knicks Go does not win. Although his 10 starts last year were all in one-turn races, and although he did not win one of them, Endorsed ran very well in his two most recent starts, earning 104 and 99 figures respectively, especially his last race when he missed winning the Mr. Prospector Stakes by a half-length when rallying from last of seven in the early stages. Earlier in his career, Endorsed was successful in two-turn races, such as when winning at Gulfstream Park in January 2020 then finishing second in the Alydar Stakes at Belmont that spring at the distance of the Pegasus. With very strong morning workouts at Gulfstream Park leading to this race and with a late running style benefited by a likely exceedingly fast early pace, Endorsed could get into the top two for the 11th time in his 23rd career start on dirt.

Another horse with potential to lag back early and get into second, with a very slight chance to win, is Chess Chief. This hard-knocking 6-year-old has earned over $800,000 in his career and enters the race off a win last month in the Tenacious Stakes at Fair Grounds with a 106 figure. That equaled the 106 figure earned when rallying from last of seven to win the New Orleans Classic Stakes last March, which was the biggest win of his career. Now that he's back in winning form, another “A” effort is certainly not out of the question.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best  Equibase Speed Figures, is Commandeer (97), Empty Tomb (113), Sir Winston (107), Stilleto Boy (108) and Title Ready (102).

Win Contender:
Knicks Go

Contenders for the exacta:
Endorsed
Chess Chief

Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes – Grade 1
Race 12 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, January 29 – Post Time 5:34 PM E.T.
One and One Eighth Miles
Four Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $3 Million

The post Equibase Analysis: Endorsed, Chess Chief Candidates To Fill Out Pegasus Exacta Behind Knicks Go appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Equibase Analysis: Epicenter The One To Beat In Lecomte

Saturday's Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes showcases nine recently turned 3-year-olds and is the first of a local three-race prep series at the Fair Grounds on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Depending on how some of these horses progress, they could be seen in the Risen Star Stakes four weeks from now on Feb. 19, and then hopefully in the Louisiana Derby on March 26.

Leading the Lecomte field is Epicenter, winner of the Gun Runner Stakes on Dec. 26, a newly anointed Road to the Derby race in which he earned 10 points, which could be significant later in the season. Pappacap is notable not because of his two runner-up efforts last fall but because those efforts came against unbeaten and untested Corniche in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes and in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Unified Report is unbeaten in three races but gets a test on two levels here as his wins in the Louisiana Legacy Stakes and Louisiana Juvenile Stakes were against Louisiana-breds and were sprint races; he will be tackling two-turns for the first time in the Lecomte. Trafalgar is an up-and-coming horse who has won two in a row including a race at the distance of the Lecomte at Fair Grounds. Cyberknife also won his most recent start at this distance and over the track, but it was a maiden race so he is stepping way up in class.

Presidential was impressive when winning by seven and three-quarter lengths in his second career start, but it was nearly five months ago so he could be a bit short of ready for this caliber of field. Blue Kentucky finished third in the Sugar Bowl Stakes near the end of December and he too is trying two turns for the first time. Surfer Dude finished third behind Epicenter in the Gun Runner Stakes after leading for the first six furlongs so will be trying to improve, while Call Me Midnight was last seen finishing seventh of 11 in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes near the end of November.

Analysis:

Epicenter improved markedly last November in his second career start when stretching out to a mile (around one turn) for the first time and controlling the tempo from start to finish to beat nine other horses rather easily by 3 1/2 lengths. Moving way up in class from the maiden ranks to run in the inaugural Gun Runner Stakes, and in his first try around two-turns, Epicenter improved again to a career-best 98 ™ Equibase Speed Figure while cruising to a 6 1/2-length win in “ridden out” fashion. Those two figures offer this colt a “double advantage” over the other eight entrants, as the lower of the two is higher than the higher of the last two figures of any of the other horses. Historically these types of horses have a high probability to win. Considering the win was at Fair Grounds and at the distance of the Lecomte and Epicenter is making only his fourth career start and second around two-turns, this colt is the one to beat in the Lecomte.

Trafalgar shows a similar pattern to Epicenter, except he hasn't run in a stakes race yet. Trafalgar finished second in his debut last summer at the same seven furlong distance that Epicenter finished sixth in his debut. In his second career start, also in a one-turn mile last fall, Trafalgar improved markedly, rallying from ninth of 10 to draw off late and earn a career-best figure, in this case an 88. Now this is where the two colts' paths diverge. Trafalgar took two months off and ran in an allowance race at Fair Grounds on Dec. 2, instead of a stakes race as Epicenter did. Although only winning by a head, and although the figure was lower at 82 then in his previous race, Trafalgar showed a lot of mental toughness in victory which may benefit him in the Lecomte. This is because after stalking in second and taking the lead to draw away in the stretch by 1 1/2 lengths, Trafalgar was challenged in the final yards but held his ground to emerge victorious by a head. Making his second start off the layoff, second over the Fair Grounds surface and second at this distance, Trafalgar draws one position inside Epicenter in the gate, and if in the final yards these two colts are neck-and-neck, Trafalgar may have the mental talent to post the mild upset and win.

Pappacap began his career last spring and summer in sensational fashion, breaking his maiden easily by almost three lengths then winning the Best Pal Stake by nearly five lengths. After a mediocre fourth place finish in the Del Mar Futurity last summer, trainer Mark Casse did not give up on Pappacap and entered him in a two-turn race for the first time in the American Pharoah Stakes. In that race he ran into Corniche, who had just galloped in his maiden win and was the prohibitive favorite. Even with Corniche rolling all alone on the front end, Pappacap stayed as close as he could and held second at 13 to 1 odds. Five weeks later in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, once again Pappacap faced Corniche and while that one rolled wire-to-wire on top as the heavy favorite, Pappacap finished second of 11 in a fine effort, earning a career-best 95 figure in the process. It might be a tougher task to run as well off nearly three months away from the races as compared to Epicenter and Trafalgar, but if Pappacap is fit to run as well as he did in his last race off workouts alone he should be a strong factor in this year's Lecomte Stakes.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Blue Kentucky (94 in sprints), Call Me Midnight (89), Cyberknife (91), Presidential (79), Surfer Dude (92 sprinting) and Unified Report (90 sprinting).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Epicenter
Trafalgar
Pappacap

Lecomte Stakes
Race 14 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, January 22, 2022 – Post Time 7:20 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $200,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Epicenter The One To Beat In Lecomte appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Equibase Analysis: Thomas Shelby Could Get Perfect Trip In Oaklawn’s Fifth Season

Nine horses are entered in Saturday's $150,000 Fifth Season Stakes at Oaklawn Park, including the 2019 and 2021 winners of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, Long Range Toddy and Concert Tour, respectively. Long Range Toddy is winless in 16 races since then while Concert Tour, last seen finishing ninth of 10 in the G1 Preakness Stakes, returns from an eight month layoff and a change to the barn of Brad Cox.

Snapper Sinclair leads the field in career earnings at $1.8 million. He has run poorly in his last two races but one was his first ever try on an all-weather surface and the other was in the G1 Breeders' Cup Mile. Two races prior to that Snapper Sinclair won the TVG Stakes on the grass at Kentucky Downs. Rated R Superstar, who returns from four months off, is another who has had a fine career to date, earning $1.1 million, with his most recent win coming in the Governor's Cup Stakes in August.

Mucho enters the Fifth Season Stakes in superb form with six straight in-the-money finishes including a win in the Challedon Stakes last summer. However, Mucho is running in a two-turn race for the very first time after 29 races around one turn. Necker Island is another horse stretching out to two turns. He won the Bet On Sunshine Stakes in November as one of five wins in his career.

Thomas Shelby really likes to win races, with 10 victories in 24 career races. His most recent effort was a second place finish in the Tinsel Stakes at Oaklawn last month. Silver Prospector is approaching the $1 million mark in career earnings. After winning the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in the winter of 2020, he has won just one of eight races. Atoka rounds out the field, entering the race off a runner-up effort in an allowance race over the track from which he was moved up to first after the winner was disqualified.

Top Contenders

Thomas Shelby draws the rail for this mile trip and that means jockey David Cohen will have the ability to put him on the lead, which has resulted in three wins in his last four starts, or settle him just off the pace, which has resulted in another three wins before that. Thomas Shelby joined the barn of trainer Robertino Diodoro in November of 2020 and after finishing fourth, third and seventh in his initial three starts for the barn, has turned into an “alpha” horse, winning seven of 10. Last October Thomas Shelby ran the best race of his career winning a classified allowance race with a personal-best 112 ™ Equibase Speed Figure. He won again in November, then after two months off led until deep stretch before coming up three-quarters of a length short in the Tinsel Stakes. That race was at Oaklawn and was run at a mile and one-eighth, with Thomas Shelby leading at the point this mile race ends so repeating that effort could be good enough to win the Fifth Season Stakes.

Silver Prospector has four career wins, one of which came at Oaklawn. That was when victorious in the 2020 Southwest Stakes with a then career-best 107 ™ figure. After a poor sixth place effort in the Rebel Stakes followed by a poorer seventh place finish in the Arkansas Derby, Silver Prospector was given nearly six months off. Returning in the fall off a lengthy layoff, Silver Prospector raced in top form to win and earned a very strong 106 figure considering the time off. Although winless in five races since, Silver Prospector ran just as well as he had in the comeback when second in the Razorback Stakes last February at Oaklawn, earning a 108 figure. Now rested since last May the same way he was in the spring of 2020 until his strong win in the fall of that year, Silver Prospector has put in a pair of very strong workouts which were the best of 52 and the fourth best of 44 on the day. These signal he could be as fit and ready to run just like he did off a similar layoff, and if he does that he could certainly compete for top honors in this race.

Concert Tour is another returning off a layoff since last May, and he too is working in the morning like he will not need a race before showing his best. Concert Tour won the first three races of his career last year, including the San Vicente Stakes and the Rebel, in which he earned a career-best 104 figure drawing off easily to win by four and one-quarter lengths in geared down fashion. After a third place finish in the Arkansas Derby¸ Concert Tour skipped the Kentucky Derby then showed up in the Preakness, running the worst race of his career when ninth of 10 and beaten more than 30 lengths. Returning to training last October, Concert Tour has been placed in the care of trainer Brad Cox, who has an exceptional record of nine wins from 25 starts with horses coming back from six months off or more in dirt routes. As such, Concert Tour appears to fit with the best of the contenders in this year's Fifth Season.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Atoka (100), Long Range Toddy (102), Mucho (108 in sprint races), Necker Island (108 in sprint races), Rated R Superstar (105) and Snapper Sinclair (115 on turf).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Thomas Shelby
Silver Prospector
Concert Tour

Fifth Season Stakes
Race 8 at Oaklawn
Saturday, January 15, 2022 – Post Time 4:46 PM E.T.
One Mile
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $150,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Thomas Shelby Could Get Perfect Trip In Oaklawn’s Fifth Season appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post