epicenter | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Epicenter The One To Beat In Lecomte

Saturday's Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes showcases nine recently turned 3-year-olds and is the first of a local three-race prep series at the Fair Grounds on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Depending on how some of these horses progress, they could be seen in the Risen Star Stakes four weeks from now on Feb. 19, and then hopefully in the Louisiana Derby on March 26.

Leading the Lecomte field is Epicenter, winner of the Gun Runner Stakes on Dec. 26, a newly anointed Road to the Derby race in which he earned 10 points, which could be significant later in the season. Pappacap is notable not because of his two runner-up efforts last fall but because those efforts came against unbeaten and untested Corniche in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes and in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Unified Report is unbeaten in three races but gets a test on two levels here as his wins in the Louisiana Legacy Stakes and Louisiana Juvenile Stakes were against Louisiana-breds and were sprint races; he will be tackling two-turns for the first time in the Lecomte. Trafalgar is an up-and-coming horse who has won two in a row including a race at the distance of the Lecomte at Fair Grounds. Cyberknife also won his most recent start at this distance and over the track, but it was a maiden race so he is stepping way up in class.

Presidential was impressive when winning by seven and three-quarter lengths in his second career start, but it was nearly five months ago so he could be a bit short of ready for this caliber of field. Blue Kentucky finished third in the Sugar Bowl Stakes near the end of December and he too is trying two turns for the first time. Surfer Dude finished third behind Epicenter in the Gun Runner Stakes after leading for the first six furlongs so will be trying to improve, while Call Me Midnight was last seen finishing seventh of 11 in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes near the end of November.

Analysis:

Epicenter improved markedly last November in his second career start when stretching out to a mile (around one turn) for the first time and controlling the tempo from start to finish to beat nine other horses rather easily by 3 1/2 lengths. Moving way up in class from the maiden ranks to run in the inaugural Gun Runner Stakes, and in his first try around two-turns, Epicenter improved again to a career-best 98 ™ Equibase Speed Figure while cruising to a 6 1/2-length win in “ridden out” fashion. Those two figures offer this colt a “double advantage” over the other eight entrants, as the lower of the two is higher than the higher of the last two figures of any of the other horses. Historically these types of horses have a high probability to win. Considering the win was at Fair Grounds and at the distance of the Lecomte and Epicenter is making only his fourth career start and second around two-turns, this colt is the one to beat in the Lecomte.

Trafalgar shows a similar pattern to Epicenter, except he hasn't run in a stakes race yet. Trafalgar finished second in his debut last summer at the same seven furlong distance that Epicenter finished sixth in his debut. In his second career start, also in a one-turn mile last fall, Trafalgar improved markedly, rallying from ninth of 10 to draw off late and earn a career-best figure, in this case an 88. Now this is where the two colts' paths diverge. Trafalgar took two months off and ran in an allowance race at Fair Grounds on Dec. 2, instead of a stakes race as Epicenter did. Although only winning by a head, and although the figure was lower at 82 then in his previous race, Trafalgar showed a lot of mental toughness in victory which may benefit him in the Lecomte. This is because after stalking in second and taking the lead to draw away in the stretch by 1 1/2 lengths, Trafalgar was challenged in the final yards but held his ground to emerge victorious by a head. Making his second start off the layoff, second over the Fair Grounds surface and second at this distance, Trafalgar draws one position inside Epicenter in the gate, and if in the final yards these two colts are neck-and-neck, Trafalgar may have the mental talent to post the mild upset and win.

Pappacap began his career last spring and summer in sensational fashion, breaking his maiden easily by almost three lengths then winning the Best Pal Stake by nearly five lengths. After a mediocre fourth place finish in the Del Mar Futurity last summer, trainer Mark Casse did not give up on Pappacap and entered him in a two-turn race for the first time in the American Pharoah Stakes. In that race he ran into Corniche, who had just galloped in his maiden win and was the prohibitive favorite. Even with Corniche rolling all alone on the front end, Pappacap stayed as close as he could and held second at 13 to 1 odds. Five weeks later in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, once again Pappacap faced Corniche and while that one rolled wire-to-wire on top as the heavy favorite, Pappacap finished second of 11 in a fine effort, earning a career-best 95 figure in the process. It might be a tougher task to run as well off nearly three months away from the races as compared to Epicenter and Trafalgar, but if Pappacap is fit to run as well as he did in his last race off workouts alone he should be a strong factor in this year's Lecomte Stakes.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Blue Kentucky (94 in sprints), Call Me Midnight (89), Cyberknife (91), Presidential (79), Surfer Dude (92 sprinting) and Unified Report (90 sprinting).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Epicenter
Trafalgar
Pappacap

Lecomte Stakes
Race 14 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, January 22, 2022 – Post Time 7:20 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $200,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Epicenter The One To Beat In Lecomte appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Road To The Kentucky Derby: Pappacap, Epicenter Go Head-To-Head In Saturday’s Lecomte

Rustlewood Farm's Pappacap, the current points leader on the Road to the Kentucky Derby with 12, headlines a field of nine 3-year-olds for the $200,000 Lecomte Stakes (G3), one of 14 races to be run on Saturday's “Road to the Derby” Day at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. Run over 1 1/16 miles, the Lecomte offers ten Kentucky Derby points to the winner, with the rest of the top four earning 4-2-1.

Six stakes have been carded by racing secretary Scott Jones and his crew for Saturday, including the Lecomte's sister race, the $150,000 Silverbulletday. The top four in that 3-year-old filly event will earn Kentucky Oaks qualifying points (10-4-2-1).

A sprint winner on debut on May 14 at Gulfstream, the Florida-bred Pappacap has raced in four graded stakes in California since, winning the Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar and most recently finishing as the runner-up behind Corniche in both the American Pharoah (G2) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1).

“I never questioned where I wanted to go after the Breeders' Cup,” trainer Mark Casse said of his upcoming run in the Lecomte. “I feel really comfortable at Fair Grounds. We had a lot of success over that track with (Lecomte and Risen Star winner) War of Will and (Kentucky Oaks runner-up) Wonder Gadot. I think it's a great atmosphere and I have a lot of confidence in David Carroll (assistant on the grounds). I think the track there suits him. He's a horse that wants to settle a little bit and not have to hustle a whole lot. He gets over the ground really well there.”

Joe Bravo, who has ridden the son of Gun Runner in all four of his graded stakes starts, will be back aboard on Saturday. Pappacap will leave from post three as Mike Diliberto's 8-5 morning line favorite.

“I'm a loyal kind of guy,” Casse said. “I think Joe has ridden him well and he knows the horse. He helped us out a lot early in the horse's development. In a conversation with the Russells (owners) after the Breeders' Cup we decided that we were going to stick with Joe moving forward.”

Casse has won two of the last three editions of the Lecomte – with War of Will in 2019 and Enforceable in 2020. Like both of those runners, the plan is to run Pappacap through the Fair Grounds' series of upcoming Kentucky Derby points races.

“He's doing well,” Casse said. “I'd rather run him and get him into a race pattern. If you do have a setback this time of year and you miss a little time, you're not behind the eight-ball. As long as he's happy and healthy, our plan is to have him run through the series of 3-year-old races at Fair Grounds and get him as much experience as we can. I think that's a plus.”

The close second choice at 9-5, Winchell Thoroughbreds' Epicenter eyes his third consecutive win for trainer Steve Asmussen. After breaking his maiden on the lead, the son of Not This Time dominated the Gun Runner last time out, sitting just off the pace before taking over off the turn and drawing away by 6 ½ lengths.

“He's exciting,” Asmussen said. “The (one-turn) mile from the outside draw when he broke his maiden (at Churchill Downs), the racetrack played for how he ran that day. The Gun Runner and two turns, restrained a little bit early, the way he ran through the wire and galloped out was everything we were hoping for.”

With Joel Rosario aboard, Epicenter will break from post five. Asmussen has won the Lecomte three times, including last year's edition with Midnight Bourbon, who will run in the Louisiana Stakes (G3) earlier in the card.

Columbine Stable's Trafalgar enters the Lecomte off a narrow Fair Grounds allowance victory in his two-turn debut on Dec. 2. After building a comfortable margin in the deep stretch, the son of Lord Nelson had to dig deep to score his second consecutive win for trainer Al Stall, Jr.

“He clearly waited on horses from the 3/16ths to the 1/6ths,” Stall said. “Here comes a Brad Cox horse (Naval Aviator) with a full head of steam, and I'm thinking, well there's goes a 3-5 shot down the drain, but he just reengaged when he saw him and had to run hard the last part. I like the fact that he went from lollygagging around straight to fighting.”

Trafalgar's sire is a multiple graded stakes winning sprinter, so despite the allowance win, the distance question has yet to be emphatically answered.

“He's by Lord Nelson, but if you come to the barn and look at him, you wouldn't think that he's going to be a sprinter,” Stall said. “He looks like A. P. Indy and Pulpit. That's the main reason I bought him in Florida ($310,000 April Ocala 2-year-old in training). He looks like that family. We always felt that he would be a horse that could stretch.”

With Fair Grounds' leading rider Colby Hernandez back aboard, Trafalgar will break from post four at 5-1 in the morning line. Stall has been very happy with the colt's progression so far.

“In the first race at Saratoga, he was drawn on the inside, missed the break and hooked a bear (Classic Causeway),” Stall said. “Second time out (at Churchill), he was in the middle of the racetrack the whole time. He didn't learn a whole lot, it set up for him and he rolled on home. It wouldn't hurt my feelings if he tucked in and kind of let the race unfold in front of him on Saturday. It will be better for him if he has a target. He had a really good five-eighths work with some dirt in his face and a target and a three-quarters in 12 and change gallop out (on Jan. 9), and he came out of this weekend's work great.”

Disqualified after crossing the line first in his career debut at Churchill, the greenness of Gold Square's Cyberknife got him beat in Louisville six weeks later, this time on the square. Stretched out around two turns for the first time on Dec. 26 at Fair Grounds, he took a clear advantage in the stretch, but nearly coughed it up late.

“He's obviously raced erratically in all three starts down the lane,” trainer Brad Cox said. “I thought he was very impressive here last time up until the last little bit. It's all mental with him. It's nothing we can really fix with him in the mornings. He's a colt that has always been a little tough to handle. He's not straightforward. He's the kind of horse who requires a good hand. He's very immature. I think the talent is there, but he's got to take a step forward mentally, and I think he will. He just needs to race and get some miles underneath him in the afternoons. I think he's going to be a player in the 3-year-old division.”

With blinkers back on for the first time since the debut, the son of Gun Runner will be reunited with jockey Florent Geroux. He breaks from post six at 6-1 in the morning line.

Undefeated from three starts, including consecutive restricted stakes wins, Valene Farms' Unified Report will face his toughest task to date on Saturday. He will break from post two with Corey Lanerie aboard (15-1 ML).

“He has trained very well and he deserves the opportunity,” trainer Dallas Stewart said. “Obviously he's been running against Louisiana-breds, but I think he's a nice horse and we are going to find out how nice he is.”

The remainder of the field with post position, jockey/trainer and morning line odds is as follows: Mark and Nancy Stanley's Surfer Dude (post one, Reylu Gutierrez/Dallas Stewart, 15-1 ML), third last out in the Gun Runner; Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners' Blue Kentucky (post seven, Jareth Loveberry/Wayne Catalano, 20-1 ML), who will test two turns for the first time in career start number seven off a runner-up effort in the Sugar Bowl at Fair Grounds; Peter Cantrell's Call Me Midnight (post eight, James Graham/Keith Desormeaux, 20-1 ML), seventh last out in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs; and Courtlandt Farms' Presidential (post nine, Brian Hernandez, Jr./Steve Asmussen, 20-1 ML), the runaway winner of a maiden special weight route in his second career start last out at Indiana Grand.

The post Road To The Kentucky Derby: Pappacap, Epicenter Go Head-To-Head In Saturday’s Lecomte appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Epicenter, With Familiar Connections, Impressive Gun Runner Winner

Racing for the same trainer and owner that campaigned Gun Runner to a Horse of the Year campaign in 2017, Winchell Thoroughbreds Epicenter, trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, raced to a 6 1/2-length victory in Sunday's inaugural running of the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La.

The Gun Runner is an official qualifying points race for the Kentucky Derby, awarding 10-4-2-1 to the top four finishers. The race is named after Gun Runner, who first came to prominence at Fair Grounds, where he won the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and G2 Louisiana Derby in 2016. While he finished third in the G1 Kentucky Derby, Gun Runner would race consistently throughout his 3-year-old season and was nearly perfect at 4 and 5, winning six of his seven final career starts, including the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic and G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes. As a sire, Gun Runner has gotten off to an historic start in 2021, setting a record for progeny earnings from his first crop of foals.

Epicenter, the 5-2 second choice ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr., paid $7.80 for the win after covering 1 1/16 miles on a fast track in 1:44.19. Tejano Twist finished second, with Surfer Dude third in the field of seven 2-year-olds. Rocket Dawg, the 4-5 favorite from the barn of Brad Cox, was never a factor, after being unsettled and rank in the early portion of the race.

A son of Not This Time out of Silent Candy, by Candy Ride, Epicenter was winning for the second time in three starts. He ran sixth in his debut at Churchill Downs last September, then broke his maiden by 3 1/2 lengths at the Louisville, Ky., track next out on Nov. 13.

In the Gun Runner, Epicenter sat just off the early pace behind Surfer Dude, who set fractions of :24.41, :47.76 and 1:12.57 for the first six furlongs. Epicenter took command in the stretch, passing the mile marker in 1:37.63 and drew off in the final sixteenth of a mile.

Epicenter was bred in Kentucky by Westwind Farms and was purchased as a yearling for $260,000.

The post Epicenter, With Familiar Connections, Impressive Gun Runner Winner appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Steve Asmussen To Saddle Morning-Line Favorite Epicenter In Inaugural Gun Runner Stakes

Plenty of gifts for the horseplayer remain under the tree for Sunday's “Road to the Derby Kickoff Day” card at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. There are six stakes to feast upon on the 13-race program, which gets underway at noon CT.

The wagering menu includes a trio of Pick Five wagers, starting in races 1, 7 and 9. The sequence that begins in race seven is an “All Stakes Pick Five” with a $100,000 guaranteed pool.

With no perfect tickets in either early or late Pick Five when last we raced on Monday, the combined carryover of $103,891 landed in Sunday's late Pick Five, which begins in race 9.

Sunday's card unveils the inaugural running of the $100,000 Gun Runner and its sister race, the $100,000 Untapable. Both 2-year-old races events are named for Winchell Thoroughbred stars who were trained by Steve Asmussen. Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks points will be awarded to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1).

“If nothing else it shows we are getting old,” Asmussen said with a chuckle. “It's very exciting for Fair Grounds to have an Untapable and a Gun Runner Stakes. Those two (horses) are great examples of the Winchell program and how successful it has been. I'm just extremely fortunate to have been a part of it.”

With the game's all-time leading trainer at the helm, it seems only fitting that Winchell Thoroughbreds would send out the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the 1 1/16 miles event in Epicenter.

“It would be very special to win the first running of the Gun Runner,” Asmussen admitted.

Sixth at odds of 13-1 after setting the pace in his career debut at Churchill on Sept. 18, Epicenter looked like a completely different racehorse in his second career start 3 ½ weeks later. Stretched out from seven furlongs to a mile, he battled the lead from post ten, took command late on the backstretch, and drew off to a 3 ½ length win.

“Nice horse, lot of talent,” Asmussen said. “I do believe with Churchill closing (the backstretch) this summer and us training the majority of our fall 2-year-olds at Turfway on synthetic, I didn't have a great read on him, or a lot of them, for their first runs. I thought his debut was a good race. He showed a little bit of ability and got a lot out of it, but he definitely got tired. He trained impressively off of it and his second race went exactly how we were hoping it and he looked well. That day Joel (rider Rosario) put him in the position to succeed and it will be a lot different going two turns at the Fair Grounds.”

By Not This Time, Epicenter is out of the Candy Ride mare Silent Candy, who was a stakes winning turf router during her career.

“I think two turns is his future,” Asmussen said of Epicenter. “He's got a nice pace about him and a pretty and sustainable way of traveling. The way he galloped out in his last start. He's been very consistent in his motion all along and I think two turns is what he wants to do moving forward.

With Brian Hernandez, Jr. calling the shots, Epicenter drew post one for the Gun Runner.

“I like the rail draw for the Fair Grounds,” Asmussen said. “Tight turns. Gun Runner himself had plenty of success from the one-hole at the Fair Grounds. The horse has been away from the gates in both of his races and I'd be surprised if he wasn't again.”

With three wins and three seconds from eight starts, Tom Durant's Tejano Twist (3-1 morning line) is the most experienced and accomplished 2-year-old in the Gun Runner field. The impressive, off-the pace winner of the Lively Shively Stakes last out at Churchill Downs, the son of first-crop stallion Practical Joke will test his merits around two turns for the first time on Saturday.

“The timing of this race and the chance to try two turns is perfect for us,” Calhoun said. “That's absolutely why we are here. I could have gone to the Springboard Mile for four times the money and I think that he would have fit very, very well in there, but at the end of the day it's time to find out how far this horse can run.”

Regular rider Joe Rocco, Jr. will invade to pilot Tejano Twist from post six.

“Do we need to start looking forward at the Road to the Kentucky Derby races or do we need to back off, freshen him, and make a sprinter out of him, that's the question he has to answer,” Calhoun said. “Pedigree-wise, on the bottom side, I'm a little bit suspicious. He's continued to move forward physically and mentally and has become a professional racehorse. With his style, he should be able to settle and relax, which should give him every opportunity to stretch out, if he can physically do it, if he's got it in him. That's what we are going to try and find out.”

A winner at first asking over seven furlongs at Churchill Downs on Nov. 19, Frank Fletcher Racing Operations and Ten Strike Racing's Rocket Dawg will also be asked the two-turn question for the first time by trainer Brad Cox.

“He surprised a little bit with how well he ran [on debut], as easy as he won,” Cox admitted. “We did like him, but thought he might need a race. He did win first time going 7/8s, I thought he did it the right way. He did it with a wide trip. I thought it was a very impressive race. He received a big Rag number. He is going to be up against it a little bit in regards to experience, most of these colts have three or four runs underneath of him. There is one colt (Tejano Twist) that has 8 races underneath him. We're hoping Dawg can make up in talent what he lacks in experience.”

At 3-1 in the morning line, Rocket Dawg will leave from gate three with Florent Geroux astride.

“In a perfect world I would like to run this horse in a first level allowance, get a foundation underneath him. He does things the right way. He acts like the further the better. We have always thought he was a horse that could stretch (out). He is going give us an opportunity on Sunday. I'm not necessarily thinking he has to win to have a race he can build off of.”

With a post time of 5:06 p.m. CT, the Gun Runner is scheduled as race 11 on the 13-race card. The remainder of the field with post position, jockey/trainer and morning line odds is as follows: Cypress Creek Equine's Waita Minute Hayes (post 2, Ashley Broussard/Ricky Courville, 8-1 ML), recently disqualified from the win in the Jean Laffitte Stakes at Delta Downs; Mark Stanley and Nancy Stanley's Surfer Dude (post 4, Reylu Gutierrez/Dallas Stewart, 5-1 ML), a game maiden winner over a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs last out; Michael McLaughlin's Kevin's Folly (post 5, James Graham/Tom Amoss, 8-1 ML), third in the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga in early September; and Rich Strike (post 7, Sonny Leon/Eric Reed), claimed for $30K out of a 17 ¼-length maiden breaking win two starts back at Churchill Downs.

The post Steve Asmussen To Saddle Morning-Line Favorite Epicenter In Inaugural Gun Runner Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post