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Siblings to Derby Contenders on Offer at OBS March

On the opening day of the OBS March 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale, just 7 1/2 weeks ahead of the First Saturday in May, buyers will have a chance to purchase the half-siblings to a pair of GI Kentucky Derby contenders.

The first of the two to go through the ring Mar. 15 will be an Always Dreaming half-brother to GII Risen Star S. winner Epicenter (Not This Time). Consigned by Ciaran Dunne's Wavertree Stables as Hip 121, the bay is out of stakes winner and GSP Silent Candy (Candy Ride {Arg}).

The colt was purchased for just $25,000 at Keeneland September by former trainer Mike Pender, who has now shifted into a career as a bloodstock agent. After 25 years on the backside, Pender picked up his first group of three yearlings for a pinhooking partnership in 2020. One of those was GIII Pocahontas S. winner Hidden Connection (Connect), a $40,000 KEESEP buy turned $85,000 OBSOPN juvenile; and another was Reserve Currency (American Freedom), who brought the same price at KEESEP and summoned $375,000 at EASMAY.

“He was very athletic and had a two-turn pedigree,” Pender said of the colt, who is from the first crop of GI Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming. “I pulled him out multiple times and couldn't take my eyes off of him. He has enough speed to make him real dangerous from what I see watching him train at Wavertree. Physically, he is all you could want. I loved him in September and now he has developed that all-important swagger as well. He is a real stunner.”

About two months after the Keeneland September Sale, Epicenter earned his diploma with a decisive second-out score at Churchill Downs Nov. 13. He followed that with a 6 1/2-length drubbing of his rivals in the Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds Dec. 26. Kicking off his sophomore season with a second in the GIII Lecomte S. in NOLA Jan. 22, the $260,000 KEESEP buy went wire-to-wire to take the Risen Star by 2 3/4 lengths. Epicenter tops the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 64 points and is being pointed at the Mar. 26 GII Louisiana Derby.

“It was great timing,” Pender said. “I told my clients I was buying them a racehorse. This way if the horse stubs his toe or something heading into the sale, we have that back up plan. Looks like we have a big shooter in this Always Dreaming colt. The fact he is a half to Epicenter is meaningful, but if you just watch him go, he screams two-turns. Like Epicenter, he is the real deal.”

Just four hips after Epicenter's half-brother goes through the ring at OBS March, a Mendelssohn half-sister (Hip 125) to recent GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. winner Simplification (Not This Time) is scheduled to sell. They are out of SP Simply Confection (Candy Ride {Arg}), who is a daughter of MSP Ballado's Halo (Saint Ballado). That mare is also responsible for the dam of MSW & MGSP Inflexibility (Scat Daddy), MSW & GSP Halo Again (Speightstown) and GSP Fundamental (Arch).

Bred in Florida by France and Irwin Weiner, Hip 125 was purchased by consignor Niall Brennan and a partner for $95,000 at the OBS January Sale under the name Democracy Bloodstock. She RNA'd for $190,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale and was withdrawn from Fasig's October Sale and pointed to this spot.

“I liked her straight off the bat as a short yearling,” Brennan said. “She was immature, but had a lovely frame to her, nice outlook and intelligent head. She looked like she would grow into something. Mendelssohn's first-crop had been selling very well as weanlings. He was a stallion with a lot of potential.”

The horseman continued, “She had a nice, young pedigree. I had a few of the foals under the second dam, including Inflexibility, and they were all black-type. [Hip 125] was the second foal out of this mare, the first being Simplification. She's a young, stakes-place Candy Ride mare. I thought she was great value. I was partial to the family and thought she was a pretty filly that might grow into something.”

A $50,000 RNA at KEENOV, Simplification graduated at second asking sprinting at Gulfstream in October. Third in an optional claimer going the same distance a month later, he captured the Mucho Macho Man S. on New Year's Day, just 24 days before his younger sister went through the ring at OBS January. Runner-up in the GIII Holy Bull S. Feb. 5, Simplification provided his half-sibling with an even bigger update ahead of this auction, rallying to a decisive victory in last Saturday's Fountain of Youth. He is currently number three on the Derby leaderboard with 54 points, the same number held by GII Rebel S. winner Un Ojo (Laoban), who earned the number two spot with higher earnings.

“It is great timing. He is a very nice horse,” Brennan said. “He had already won the Mucho Macho Man and the update was in the catalogue. He proved he was for real when he came back and ran so well. He is a very nice 3-year-old and he made an already nice pedigree even better.”

In addition to her strong female family, Hip 125 is from the first crop of $3-million KEESEP topper Mendelssohn, winner of the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and the G2 UAE Derby on dirt. He was also second in the GI Runhappy Travers S. The son of Scat Daddy is a half to future Hall of Famer Beholder and GISW and top sire Into Mischief.

“She's done very well,” Brennan said when asked how the filly has developed in her training. “She's an average-sized filly, looks a bit like her brother. She is very smooth, very intelligent. These Mendelssohns, the ones I have anyway, are very professional, very focused. They all show the same kind of consistency and class. They are all very good movers. She acts that way, very easy, a really classy filly. She has great action on the racetrack. She moves great on the dirt. All the Mendelssohns I have, I think they will go on either surface from the way they are training.”

The OBS March Sale takes place Mar. 15-16 with each session starting at 10:30 a.m.

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Derby Colt Has Westwind in His Sails

Their grandfather first invested in horseflesh when just 14 years old.

“I remember him telling me about an oil boom they had in Warren County,” Mike Harris recalls. “Back then, the oil rigs were just pulled around on skids, and they'd hire somebody with a team to pull them from location to location. So he started out with one team, and then he hired a couple of his buddies and bought two more, and soon they were moving these rigs all over the county. So he was quite a businessman from a young age.”

With time, his commercial flair made J.R. Bettersworth a conspicuous figure around southern Kentucky. Though he had gone to school riding a wagon, a different kind of horsepower would soon dominate the American landscape: he duly set up a car dealership, an electrical supplies business too. Eventually he was able to buy a farm that had been in his mother's family for generations already when they had to stage an estate sale.

Around 1965 he introduced Thoroughbreds, having always maintained five or six Saddlebreds to show round the county fair circuit. It is with due pride, then, that the maternal grandfather's surname has always prefixed the Bettersworth Westwind Farms consignment at Keeneland. Run in partnership by Harris and brothers Brent and Kevin, along with sons Justin and Taylor, Westwind lies some 150 miles southwest of Lexington on the way to Nashville. While foaling out no more than 17 or 18 mares this spring, they reckon on putting 30,000-35,000 miles on the trailer every year just commuting to the Lexington studs.

It was on this same road, in fact, that Harris in 1979 endured a trauma that ripped a void in the family while also tightening its bonds.

Fresh out of college, he was riding in the trailer on the way to the September Sale when a yearling broke its halter ties and got out of its stall. He flagged down his uncle, who pulled over and lowered the ramp.

“We were backing the yearling into the stall but about halfway it reared up and my uncle stumbled on the ramp and fell on the ground,” Harris recalls. “That left the yearling with nobody holding on, and it kind of lunged out there and landed on the back of his rib cage. He got up and said, 'I'll just go to the hospital to get checked over real quick, and I'll meet y'all out at Keeneland.' But they kept him in there and somehow or other he got an infection in his bloodstream, he just went downhill and only lived another five or six days.”

Grandfather Bettersworth had at that point been looking to step back, but the tragedy now had a double effect: one was to fast-track Mike and, in due course, his younger brothers as they too finished their educations; the other was to make the old man an even more precious mentor for the remaining 10 years of his life. But that episode, harrowing as it must have been, never tainted the family's affection for the horse, nor its collective sense of vocation.

“I never really did think about it like that,” Harris says. “Of course, with my uncle gone, I had to fill shoes probably earlier than I was ready for. But we all just kept it going. My grandfather had to come back into the day-to-day a bit more, looking over my shoulder and helping me to figure everything out. I'd been around horses all my life, I think I was actually riding before I could even walk, and my brothers are the same. But I did learn a lot from being around my grandfather every day.”

Even so, it hasn't been easy. If you can't afford elite mares, or elite covers, then a modest herd like this is under constant pressure to come up with that occasional home run, simply to keep the show on the road. There have been times when the family has wondered whether the 300 acres devoted to the horses should go the way of the other 700 acres, which are let for arable use. And they were never closer to the brink than in 2020, when they actually started drawing up a list of mares to discard through the January Sale.

That September, however, the ship was steadied by a colt from the second crop of Not This Time out of a Candy Ride {Arg} mare, then 13, named Silent Candy.

“All this mare's foals tend to be real immature-looking, early in the year, and it was the exact same thing with this one,” Harris recalls. “It's not so much that he was late maturing, just it was probably June or July before he really filled out. But he was always extremely well balanced, and of course for him to bloom right at sale time was actually perfect for us. By the time we got him there he was a sight: a real athlete, with a real fluid way of walking, like a cat. And we weren't the only ones that thought that. There was a lot of activity on him at the sale. It's gratifying when other people make as much of a horse you raise as you do, and we got a real good price.”

Yes, they did: from a $15,000 cover, they realized $260,000 for hip 1956 from Winchell Thoroughbreds. The Harris clan were delighted to see him sent to no less a trainer than Steve Asmussen, who saddled him to break his maiden on his second start at Churchill in November before romping in the Gun Runner S. at the Fair Grounds. Though nailed on the line after seeing off competition for the lead in the GIII Lecomte S., he has meanwhile confirmed himself an authentic Derby colt when coasting home from a deep field in the GII Risen S.

For this, of course, is Epicenter–whose pedigree, which we explored last week, virtually guarantees better still over a 10th furlong; and whose upbringing, according to a lore honed from one generation to the next, will enable him to stand him toe-to-toe with any rival raised in more fashionable tracts of the Bluegrass.

Making a virtue of necessity, given the relative manpower on the big Lexington farms, Epicenter will have been allowed the freedom “to be a horse” as people like to say. At the same time, supervision at Westwind is so intimate that there will always have been a finger on the pulse of his development. They're raised outdoors through the winter, with run-in sheds and racks of farm-grown hay; and brought in a couple of times a day for handling and feeding. Then, during sales prep, attention is so literally hands-on that Harris reckons on losing 10lbs from May to September.

“There's just five of us, and we do pretty much everything ourselves,” Harris reflects. “From May on, they're led 30 minutes every day, groomed and bathed; we try to lead them to new places, get them used to different situations. Epicenter was real good that way, just real easy to get along with; never got excited or scared. We load them onto the trailer 20 or 30 times before we go to the sale, just to introduce them to new stuff, but nothing ever fazed him. He just had that personality, he was a really smart colt.

“I think one of the main things we have here is our land. It's really good limestone, really good crop soil, and it raises a good horse too. Ever since my grandfather started the farm, I think our horses have always outrun their pedigrees. We've never spent more than $130,000 on a mare, and try not to go over $30,000-$40,000 on a stud fee, because if you get a crooked foal we can't afford to take a hit any bigger than that.”

Sure enough, grandfather Bettersworth bred the Hall of Fame champion sprinter My Juliet (Gallant Romeo), winner of 24 races; Brent and wife Beth co-bred multiple Grade I winner Sweet Reason (Street Sense), who was raised on the farm; and recently Restrainedvengeance (Hold Me Back) became a millionaire when third in the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

As it happens, the $130,000 mare mentioned by Harris is Silent Candy herself. A five-time winner who also made the frame over nine furlongs of grass at Grade III level, she was acquired out of the Summerfield consignment at the Keeneland November Sale of 2014.

“She wasn't a real big mare, but she was very well balanced,” Harris recalls. “We liked that she was by Candy Ride, and another of the bigger draws was that she was in foal to Scat Daddy. We'd been fans since he went to stud, bred to him just about every year until his fee got really high.”

The resulting colt didn't achieve a great deal on the track, however, nor the other five named foals preceding Epicenter.

“She's had some nice ones but just had some bad luck,” Harris argues. “There was a filly by Will Take Charge that was going to be really nice, she ran second both times at Churchill but then had a freakish training accident. But that's the way it goes. We thought Not This Time was a gorgeous horse when we went to look at him, and he was in our price range. Silent Candy is due to foal [to Outwork] about the middle of the month, and then she's booked back to Not This Time.”

Though the Taylor Made stallion is now at the ceiling of the usual budget, Epicenter has plainly made a reunion of his parents commercially imperative. Certainly his emergence will inspire many other small breeders, observing such timely reward for the Harris family's perseverance when the game was so nearly up.

“The years after my grandfather died, it was tough,” Harris admits. “Several times we were just about ready to do something else, and then we'd have one come along like this. Epicenter really got us over the hump, he pulled us out of debt, and we've had a couple of decent sale years since with the market getting better.”

And, while they may not be quite at the epicenter of the Bluegrass, things could be turned inside out come the first Saturday in May.

“Well, you know, if you raise horses in Kentucky that's your goal: at some point to have a horse run in the Derby,” Harris says. “We've had one run in the Preakness, and we've had one in the Belmont. But never in the Derby, so we're just keeping our fingers crossed that he stays healthy and gets there. It'll be a fun day, if he does.

“Raising these horses, they're almost like our children. We're around them every day, handle them every day. There's no days off, that's for sure. But then when they've gone through the ring, and we bring them back into the stall, you have to wish them well and say goodbye and it's on to the next one. It's definitely a lifestyle, a whole lot more than a job. But we know we're lucky. We all live here on the farm, and Thoroughbreds are about the most beautiful animals God made. It's a good life.”

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TDN Derby 12 for Feb. 23

We're inside the 11-week mark to the GI Kentucky Derby, but still a month away from the important leap to races at nine furlongs or longer. Although there was no major upheaval within the rankings this week, we do have a new No 1. The subplots thicken as the cadence quickens.

1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-1-1, $301,100. Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 16.

Make no mistake: Newly top-ranked Classic Causeway didn't “inherit” the No. 1 rating on this list because the former kingpin, 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy), ran second over the weekend. Rather, Classic Causeway carved out his own spot atop the totem pole with a grace-under-pressure performance in the Feb. 12 GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa. Keen to make the pace, this Giant's Causeway homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper ripped through a :22.66 opening quarter, then toned down the middle fractions while being ceaselessly hounded but always exhibiting confident body language. Classic Causeway kicked for home with three legitimate threats right behind him, but spurted away under urging before unleashing a “Wow!” gear in deep stretch that punctuated a visually impressive final sixteenth in :5.98 (the only sub-six-seconds clocking among preps at 1 1/16 miles this season). The GII Tampa Bay Derby is next. Note that the Nos. 1 and 2 colts within the Top 12 exit the two most competitive individual preps we've witnessed so far in '22 (the Davis S. and the GII Risen Star S.), and they also hail from the key juvenile race from '21, the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., which has now produced three next-out graded stakes winners and one runner-up.

2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 30.

'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy's hard-charging second after enduring traffic in the Risen Star was respectable enough off a 12-week layoff to keep him in the upper tier of the Top 12. This son of Runhappy broke adeptly, settled capably when asked to rate, then secured a spot third from last entering the backstretch. From about the five-eighths pole to the three-eighths marker he was mildly pocketed but still patiently handled by Corey Lanerie. Midway through the turn it looked as if Lanerie was about to make his move outside, but he had to hit pause on that plan when the onrushing Zandon (Upstart) claimed the same path. Turning for home, Smile Happy was walled up with too much work to do, yet when Lanerie aimed for inside passage, his colt responded to rousing. But that burst of energy three-sixteenths out put Smile Happy on the heels of a caving Pappacap (Gun Runner), so Lanerie had to shift back outside before splitting horses and clearly gaining second at the eighth pole behind a good-as-gone winner. It only took two jumps after the wire for Smile Happy to gallop out abreast of the geared-down Epicenter (Not This Time), and the 94 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his runner-up effort adds to an upward-trending three-race arc.

3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A.

Trainer Bob Baffert texted “no plans yet” several days ago when asked for a next-race update. But history can provide a good guess as to where 'TDN Rising Star' Messier will show up following his romp in the GIII Bob Lewis S. on Feb. 5. Prior to Messier's win, Baffert had won the Lewis (or its predecessor, the Santa Catalina S.) nine times. Seven of those Lewis winners next started in the GII San Felipe S. in early March. Last year, Medina Spirit won the Lewis, then ran second in both the San Felipe and GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby before crossing the finish wire first in the Kentucky Derby. In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile won all three of those Santa Anita preps, then ran second in Louisville. Those efforts stand as the best two Derby performances by Baffert horses who took the Lewis-San Felipe route.

When a horse outclasses only four others by 15 lengths like Messier did in the Lewis, it can be difficult to discern how strong the effort really was. But make no mistake about the major-league 103 Beyer Speed Figure this $470,000 FTKSEL colt by Empire Maker unleashed–the only triple-digit Beyer by a 3-year-old in 2022.

This colt, like all Baffert trainees, remains ineligible to earn Derby qualifying points or to start at Churchill Downs because of Baffert's banishment by the track's corporate parent.

4) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $50,400. Last Start: 1st Tampa Bay Downs ALW. Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel will go next in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., and if all goes according to trainer Todd Pletcher's plan, the GI Curlin Florida Derby will be his final start before Louisville. This physically imposing son of More Than Ready has paired a 78-Beyer MSW wire job in a one-turn Gulfstream mile with an 89-Beyer front-running allowance score over a mile and 40 yards at Tampa. Although the field for the Fountain of Youth is still taking shape, right now only one other Top 12 contender is listed as a likely entrant. That means Emmanuel will almost certainly start as the favorite in a race that's recently been brutal to the chalk: Fountain of Youth faves have gone down in defeat in four of the last five editions, and have managed just three wins from the last 15 (including one demotion via disqualification). Still, with 1 1/16-mile races at Gulfstream starting so close to the first turn and finishing in a short-stretch configuration, you'd have to think Emmanuel's pure speed and demonstrated fondness for the surface might erase any concerns about the negative trend for faves.

5) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 12.

Pletcher recently told TDN that “the [GII] Wood Memorial [S.] is the 100-point race that we've got him targeted for since he won the [GII] Remsen [S.] at Aqueduct.” The only question, he explained, is whether or not this $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo will get another start between now and that Apr. 9 New York race.

In the GIII Holy Bull S., Mo Donegal was a beaten favorite while suffering the most glaring adverse trip among top Derby contenders so far this season. Riding a closer by nature, Irad Ortiz Jr. wasted a lot of lateral movement going from the rail on the first turn to the five path on the backstretch, only to attempt another blocked inside bid on the far turn before being directing his colt widest of all for a belated drive to the wire.

As Pletcher termed it, “everything kind of unfolded the wrong way for him and it took him a while to get out in the clear and able to make his run. It was the kind of effort we were hoping for, even though it wasn't the result we were wanting.”

6) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next start: Possible for GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

Zandon's trip to New Orleans for a prep race was exactly that–a useful preparatory effort for an overall goal that is 2 1/2 months down the road. This $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart broke in the air and was relegated to last in the early stages while tugging at the bit. He settled four off the rail for the back straight, then uncorked a methodical march while widest on the far turn that built momentum into a sustained three-furlong run. It appeared as if Zandon might have been losing steam at the sixteenth pole, but the colt re-engaged when he sensed a rival to his inside, digging in to win a head-bob for third.

Considering the shipping, racing under the lights, and having to square off against a much tougher crew, that's not a bad effort for a third career race. Zandon's Beyers are competitive and moving in the right direction (80, 90, 93), and trainer Chad Brown told DRF that the Apr. 9 Blue Grass (recently reinstated as a Grade I), is the next likely target.

7) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $410,639. Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 64.

Epicenter knows his job is to go straight to the front and establish control, and he executed that task effectively in Saturday's Risen Star over nine furlongs. Jockey Joel Rosario (and everyone else) knew this $260,000 KEESEP colt had the race wrapped up after cresting the eighth pole, and Epicenter's 98 Beyer, which he garnered by cranking out even-tempoed splits of :23.79, :24.18, :24.28, :24.33 and :12.45, establishes this son of Not This Time as a legit Louisville contender.

But in fairness, Epicenter's no-mishap win has to be juxtaposed against the trip duress suffered by the two well-backed horses who chased him through the stretch. Would he have won if both Smile Happy and Zandon had gotten clean runs at him? We've already seen that Epicenter has the physical and mental fortitude to hold off a wall of horses at the top of the lane, like he did when second in the GIII Lecomte S. And had he not gotten pipped at the final jump by an out-of-the-clouds long shot in that January race, Epicenter would otherwise be riding a four-race win streak into the GII Louisiana Derby.

Epicenter | Hodges Photography/Amanda Hodges Weir

8) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.

Even though he's two-for-two, Early Voting's relatively high Top 12 ranking isn't based so much on what he's accomplished so far as what he might be able to deliver. He's a late developer who has demonstrated improved conditioning, confidence and mental seasoning with races under his belt. So when and at what distance will this $200,000 KEESEP buy peak? That's a question everyone who owns a son or daughter of leading first-crop-sire Gun Runner wants answered.

His Beyers don't tell us much: Early Voting's 76 and 78 are both below-par for elite-level Derby contenders. But those numbers were both earned over dull-ish winter surfaces at Aqueduct (although the Beyers are designed to adjust for the nature of the surface). This colt's 4 1/2-length wiring of the GIII Withers S. field earned black type, but his MSW score in a one-turn mile actually comes off as the more impressive try.

Favored at 4-5, Early Voting pressed outside in a three-way duel, cracked one rival with sustained pressure, sparred with the other before dispatching him on the far turn, then capably repulsed a fresh run from the stalking second choice who had built up winning momentum through the stretch.

9) NEWGRANGE (c, Violence–Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker) O-Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, SF Racing LLC, Siena Farm LLC, Starlight Racing, Stonestreet Stables, LLC, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan, Robert E. Masterson & Jay A. Schoenfarber. B-Jack Mandato & Black Rock Thoroughbreds (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $125,000 yrl '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $552,000. Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S. Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Feb. 26. KY Derby Points: N/A.

The three-for-three Newgrange headlines Saturday's GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn, which this year is newly positioned as a late-February prep because of Oaklawn's earlier-than-usual Apr. 2 scheduling of the GI Arkansas Derby. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the last two Rebels and eight of the previous 13. But prior to Nadal's win in 2020, he saddled beaten favorites in four straight runnings (counting split divisions in '19).

This $125,000 KEESEP colt had to be really pushed along on the far turn before finishing with interest to win the GIII Southwest S., and Baffert said afterward that jockey John Velazquez told him Newgrange might not have been handling the track. Since then, the connections of several Southwest also-rans have similarly described that day's surface as being cuppy and deep in the aftermath of very cold weather, which could explain why some runners didn't care for it, and why Newgrange only earned a one-point Beyer bump off his previous effort (88 to 89).

We've now seen him wire fields and win from off the pace, so Newgrange is tactically versatile; being able to run well despite not really liking the footing also shows he doesn't need everything his own way to win.

10) RATTLE N ROLL (c, Connect–Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg) O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-St. Simon Place (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $55,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $210,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-0-1, $379,460. Last Start: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity. Next Start: Probable for GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 10.

If Rattle N Roll goes Mar. 5 in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., that will represent a 21-week layoff since his 81-Beyer GI Breeders' Futurity S. score. Over the last five years, trainer Ken McPeek has won at a 16% clip with layoffs between 120 and 180 days. If you drill down to look at only the subset of 3-year-old males within those parameters, he is two for 20. There are pluses and minuses to this $55,000 KEENOV and $210,000 KEESEP colt's Grade I win last fall. On the pro side, he displayed a high level of comfort while racing covered up midpack before launching a prolonged winning bid three furlongs out, beating No. 1-ranked Classic Causeway in the process. On the con side, Rattle N Roll really only had to outrun stragglers over a short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles, and with the exception of Classic Causeway, not a single horse out of that Keeneland stakes has subsequently won a race.

11) MAJOR GENERAL (c, Constitution–No Mo Lemons, by Uncle Mo) O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Circular Road Breeders (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $265,000 ylg '20 KEEJAN; $420,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $232,525. Last Start: 1st GIII Iroquois S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 10.

They say if you wait long enough, everything cycles back into vogue again. Way back on Sept. 18, Major General won the very first qualifying points race for the '22 Derby, the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill. He was then shelved, but this Constitution colt's two-for-two record was good enough to get him listed on January's first installment of the Top 12. He was a little bit behind in training and thus got leapfrogged in the rankings, but now with seven published breezes and three straight bullet workouts, his stock is rising again.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has this $265,000 KEEJAN and $420,000 KEESEP colt humming along under the radar in preparation for a likely start in the Tampa Bay Derby. His Iroquois win earned grittiness points because Major General overcame a bobble at the start before unwinding with an all-business move 3 1/2 furlongs out. He gamely traded bumps with the favorite in upper stretch, then still had enough gas late to fend off an onrushing closer to win by a neck.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $240,850. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 12.

Efficiency, athleticism and an affinity for the Gulfstream racing surface all play in White Abarrio's favor as he points for the Florida Derby. This speed-centric Race Day colt ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) owns three open-length wins at Gulfstream, and his only loss to date was a credible third at Churchill behind heavy hitters Classic Causeway and Smile Happy. But similar to what was discussed in Epicenter's write-up, in terms of the bigger Derby picture, it's legit to question how much of White Abarrio's win in the Holy Bull S. was attributable to this colt's own prowess, or to him being able to sail clear on the front end while the top four favorites behind him all endured various forms of in-race adversity. Having said that, his 97 Beyer merits respect. Only two sophomores have run a better number this year: Messier's 103 and Epicenter's 98.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Belgrade (Hard Spun): Bought for $45,000 at FTKSEL and just sold for $700,000 last month at KEEJAN, this H. Graham Motion trainee is two-for-two with wins at Fair Grounds and Tampa, and could be the sleeper in the Tampa Bay Derby, a stakes that has been won by horses with odds of 8-1 or higher in each of the last four runnings.

Blackadder (Quality Road): Nice surge late from this $620,000 KEESEP colt to catch his Baffert stablemate napping in the late stages of the El Camino Real Derby.

Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute): Lecomte S. upsetter's form got shored up when the horse he caught at the wire, Epicenter, came back to wire the Risen Star S. Four-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $37,0000 RNA KEESEP; $17,000 OBSOCT; $80,000 OBSMAR) prepping for the Louisiana Derby.

Charge It (Tapit): Whisper Hill Farm homebred named a 'TDN Rising Star' in start number two for Pletcher when a daylight winner in a one-turn MSW mile at Gulfstream. Lots of options for a new graduate, but the Derby clock is ticking.

In Due Time (Not This Time): This three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) fired a bullet breeze last Friday off a 92-Beyer allowance win by open lengths.

The post TDN Derby 12 for Feb. 23 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The Week in Review: Though Defeated a Huge Race for Smile Happy

The chart of the GII Risen Star S. run Saturday at the Fair Grounds will show you that the race was won by Epicenter (Not This Time) and that runner-up Smile Happy (Runhappy) was never a serious threat to win. It's just that there is a lot more to this story.

Expectations were high for Smile Happy coming into the Risen Star. He was 2-for-2 last year and his win in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. came at the expense of Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) and White Abarrio (Race Day). Classic Causeway won the GIII Sam F. Davis S. in his next start and White Abarrio captured the GIII Holy Bull S. in his 3-year-old debut. Colleague T.D. Thornton had Smile Happy on top in his TDN Derby Top 12 and Mattress Mack was out there doing his thing, helping to promote the horse who may be Runhappy's best offspring.

Smile Happy was made the 2-1 favorite, but with the way the race unfolded, he never had a serious chance.

Epicenter, a quality horse, was sent to the front by Joel Rosario and, going into the first turn, it looked like he might face some pressure. But Pioneer of Medina (Pioneerof the Nile) and Boddock (Street Boss) backed off. That left Epicenter alone on the lead. When he got through an opening half-mile in :47.94, it was clear that he was going to be hard to beat.

Meanwhile, Smile Happy was eighth in the 10-horse field down the backstretch. He probably could have won from there if the rest of his trip broke his way, but that didn't happen. Entering the far turn, jockey Corey Lanerie found himself bottled up between horses. Throughout the turn, he couldn't find a running lane and once he did he was still eighth. It looked the best he could do was fourth or fifth. But Smile Happy managed to close a good amount of ground inside the final 100 yards or so and was beaten just 2 3/4 lengths.

Finishing third, Zandon (Upstart) also put in a strong effort. He hopped at the start and was last early behind the slow pace. Despite all that, he lost by just 3 1/4 lengths.

After the race, trainer Ken McPeek said he had yet to decide what would be next for Smile Happy. The GII Louisiana Derby on Mar. 26 would be the logical spot. He'll surely get one more race before the Kentucky Derby to show why so many people were so high on him. Next time, he won't get beat.

Speaking of the Runhappys

Smile Happy, Runhappy's best colt, may have been beaten in the Risen Star, but it was far from a lost day Saturday for Jim McIngvale's favorite sire. At Oaklawn, the 3-year-old filly Happy Soul (Runhappy) came off a layoff of more than eight months to beat a good field in the Dixie Belle S. A decisive winner, she turned in an impressive effort.

When last seen, Happy Soul scored an 11 1/2-length win in the Astoria S. at Belmont. Considering that Happy Soul has never gone beyond six furlongs, a start in the GI Kentucky Oaks might be a stretch, but trainer Wesley Ward said the race is under consideration. Ward said she will make her next start in either the GI Ashland S. at 1 1/16 miles or the Apr. 10 GIII Beaumont S. at seven furlongs. Both races are at Keeneland. A start in the Ashland would mean that Ward is serious about the Oaks.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Starters Continue to Come Up Short

When Pappcap (Gun Runner) finished eighth in the Risen Star, it marked the latest loss by a horse who had run in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Pappacap was second in last year's Juvenile.

There were 11 starters in the Juvenile and not one has won since that race. They are a combined 0-for-9. Five Juvenile starters have not run since the Breeders' Cup, a list that includes winner Corniche (Quality Road). He has not had a workout this year and there have been no updates on his schedule. It is unlikely that trainer Bob Baffert will have him ready for the Derby.

Perseverance Pays Off For Cordmaker Connections

He may not be a superstar, but there are few horse in the sport that are more admirable than the 7-year-old Cordmaker (Curlin).

He was bought for $150,000 at the 2016 Fasig-Tipton Midatlantic Fall yearling sale by owner Ellen Charles and sent to trainer Rodney Jenkins. It was apparent early on what they had. Cordmaker, who was gelded before his career debut, was one of those tough old pros who just went out there and tried every single time.

He came into Saturday's GIII General George S. at Laurel with 13 career wins overall and nine stakes victories. But he had never won a graded stakes.

As last, he got it done, winning the General George by three-quarters of a length. It was his fourth straight win, all of them coming in stakes. At seven, he's never been better and with $989,640 in career earnings he could go over the $1-million mark in earnings in his next start.

The Marcus Vitali Meth Case

Marcus Vitali should have been thrown out of this sport a long time ago. His record is as bad as it gets. And shame on tracks like Turf Paradise and Presque Isle Downs that have opened their doors to him.

But that doesn't mean Vitali is guilty of the latest charge, a one-year suspension and a $10,000 fine handed down by the Pennsylvania Racing Commission after a horse he ran last summer at Presque Isle Downs tested positive for methamphetamine. Going to bat for Vitali, Todd Mostoller, the executive director of the Pennsylvania Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association, which represents horsemen at Penn National and Presque Isle Downs, said that the methamphetamine positive was a result of environmental contamination and that Vital should not have been suspended

He very well could have a point. Common sense says that giving a horse meth would not result in an improved performance and use of the drug by humans is rampant.

But the bigger issue is whether or not Vitali is being treated differently because he is, well, Marcus Vitali. Mostoller said there have been “three or four” other methamphetamine positives in recent months at Penn National and in all those cases it was ruled that the positive test was the result of environmental contamination and the trainers were not suspended.

In 2017, a Peter Miller-trained horse tested positive for methamphetamine after running in the Pennsylvania Governor's Cup at Penn National. The Pennsylvania Racing Commission ruled that there were “mitigating circumstances” and fined Miller $1,500 but did not suspend him.

Vitali does have rights and should be treated like any other trainer. He's going to fight this and he may just win.

The post The Week in Review: Though Defeated a Huge Race for Smile Happy appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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