Don’t Bet On Most Accomplished Colt Being Favored in Derby

The Week in Review by T.D. Thornton

Epicenter (Not This Time) is the first horse on this year's GI Kentucky Derby trail to arrive back in the proverbial clubhouse. His afternoon work is finished for the next six weeks, and he's earned his berth in America's most important horse race in a thoroughly professional manner that checks many of the boxes on the Derby desirability list.

Epicenter's never-in-doubt dismantling of the GII Louisiana Derby field serves as a microcosm of his overall body of work: He's an adept breaker from the gate. His running style is speed-centric without a crazed need to seize the lead. He cranks out up-tempo quarter-mile splits without showing visible signs of duress. He can fight the entire length of the stretch (although he didn't need to in Saturday's even-keeled 2 1/2-length win), and he gallops out past the wire like he wants more.

You want additional attributes that suggest a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May could be within this $260,000 Keeneland September colt's grasp? Epicenter, as a January foal with six lifetime races, has an edge as one of the oldest and most seasoned sophomores. His Beyer Speed Figures have ascended in each race without any wild fluctuations that might make them seem suspect. He's won four starts, including three around two turns, one each at nine furlongs and 1 3/16 miles, and one over the Derby surface at Churchill Downs.

Epicenter's only loss within the past six months came after he forced the issue from between foes in the GIII Lecomte S., held off a wall of horses at the top of the lane, repulsed a strong bid from the all-out favorite through the length of the long Fair Grounds stretch, then got nailed the wire by a last-gasp 28-1 shot (before quickly surging back in front several jumps after the finish).

The 102 Beyer this Winchell Thoroughbreds colorbearer earned in his Louisiana Derby romp is going to get a lot of ink. But here's an even more impressive set of metrics that won't get as much attention: Of all the two-turn Derby qualifying races run in 2022, regardless of the distance, only three of them have featured internal quarter-mile splits under 25 seconds each. Epicenter orchestrated two of those performances–his Louisiana Derby and Grade II Risen Star S. wins (The other prep with all sub-25-second quarters was the GIII Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream.)

Yet despite that impressive list of accomplishments, it's a likely bet Epicenter won't be favored on Derby Day.

More than any other race of the year, betting on the Derby is highly driven by headlines and easy-to-grasp media narratives. Recency bias also plays a big role, meaning the wagering public puts outsized emphasis on events that have just occurred at the expense of those farther back in the rear-view mirror.

Put another way, Derby bettors love to zero in on compelling story lines that have to do with explosive last-race wins by young colts perceived as sky's-the-limit contenders (especially if they have human connections who love to talk up their chances).

While Epicenter is a lot of things in racehorse terms, it would be a stretch to label him as “flashy.” Crank-it-out consistency is more his style, and those types of Thoroughbreds typically get overlooked because there's no wave of hype driving the wagering sentiment.

Six weeks is a small eternity in the lead-up to the Derby. As the glow of Epicenter's shining winter/spring campaign recedes, how many times between now and May 7 do you think trainer Steve Asmussen is going to have to politely address his 0-for-23 record in the Derby, the longest active drought on record? That one stat will be repeated over and over again, and even if you don't believe it's entirely relevant to Epicenter's chances, it will certainly serve to inflate his odds.

Epicenter's broad, bay shoulders must also carry the burden of the Louisiana Derby itself. Not only is the premier race in New Orleans one of the least-productive Kentucky Derby prep races in history, but it's also one that increasingly appears to be infused with weird juju.

The Louisiana Derby dates to 1894. Only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby–Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924. One Louisiana Derby runner-up–Funny Cide in 2003–also scored in Louisville. But that's it. No other horse who even competed in the Louisiana Derby–regardless of where he finished–has ever crossed the finish wire first under Churchill's twin spires.

Yet now, because of oddball circumstances, the Louisiana Derby is on the verge of having two of its also-rans within the past three years recognized as Kentucky Derby winners via disqualification–Country House in 2019 (because of Maximum Security's in-race foul) and Mandaloun in 2021 (pending the still-under-appeal drug DQ of Medina Spirit).

Country House never raced again after his Derby win via DQ. Grindstone also never raced again after his Louisiana/Kentucky Derby double, and when he died last week at age 29, he was the oldest living Kentucky Derby winner.

But the career arc of Black Gold is more improbable than both of those bizarre happenstances combined.

According to legend (as recapped in Black Gold's National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame bio), a horse owner in the 1910s named Al Hoots had a deathbed vision that his 34-for-122 mare U-See-It (sometimes spelled without the hyphens) would be bred to Col. E. R. Bradley's stallion Black Toney, and that the foal would win the Kentucky Derby. The mare had been so special to Hoots that he once–armed with a shotgun–refused to hand her over after she got claimed out of a race in Juarez, Mexico.

Several years later, after Hoots died, his widow, Rosa Hoots, did indeed breed U-See-It to Black Toney. When oil was discovered a short time later on her Oklahoma property, Mrs. Hoots became wealthy overnight, and in the spirit of the fortuitous oil strike, she named the colt Black Gold. As her husband had predicted, Black Gold won the 1924 Kentucky Derby, making Rosa the first woman to breed and own a Derby winner.

Black Gold was retired to stud but was not fertile. He sired exactly one foal, a colt. It was killed by a lightning strike.

At age six, Black Gold was returned to the racetrack for an ill-fated comeback. He went 0-for-4, and in his final start at the Fair Grounds, on Jan. 18, 1928, he suffered a catastrophic injury and was buried in the track infield.

The Louisiana Derby hasn't been short on talent in recent decades. Some pretty nice winners out of that race–Risen Star, Peace Rules, Hot Rod Charlie–blossomed into Grade I victors without winning the Kentucky Derby. Asmussen himself even trained two eventual Grade I grads who won the Louisiana Derby, namely Gun Runner and Pyro.

This spring, Epicenter has a chance to rewrite the Derby map that links New Orleans and Louisville. And if you like his chances in the aftermath of his Louisiana Derby score and what he's shown us so far, just wait another month and a half for his price to ripen come Kentucky Derby day.

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Epicenter Stalks and Draws Off in Louisiana Derby

Winchell-owned and Steve Asmussen-trained Epicenter (Not This Time) gave his connections a sweep of the day's 3-year-old features, scoring a good-looking victory in the GII Louisiana Derby just one race after his champion stablemate Echo Zulu (Gun Runner) took the GII Fair Grounds Oaks. The victory puts Epicenter back at the top of the GI Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

The even-money favorite established position on the rail, sitting in a close third as 'TDN Rising Star' Zozos (Munnings) carved out splits of :23.27 and :47.35 with Pioneer of Medina (Pioneerof the Nile) in tow. Epicenter maintained his position with the leader well within his grasp on the backstretch run. Launching a two-wide move to take control in early stretch, Epicenter powered clear to a dominant win over Zozos in a new track record time.

In addition to Epicenter and Echo Zulu, winning pilot Joel Rosario and Asmussen also teamed up to win three maiden special weights: Belle Rebelle (Upstart) in the first, Mazuma (American Pharoah) in the second and 'TDN Rising Star' Marsalis (Curlin) in the seventh.

Graduating at second asking at Churchill Downs Nov. 13, Epicenter romped in the Gun Runner S. at this oval Dec. 26. Doing the dirty work in the GIII Lecomte S. Jan. 22 in NOLA, he was run down by Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute) and forced to settled for second. He returned with a vengeance next out at Fair Grounds, going gate-to wire in the GII Risen Star S. to register a 2 3/4-length victory.

Pedigree Notes:

Epicenter is one of six graded winners and 17 black-type victors by his red-hot sire Not This Time. He is one of two colts on the Derby trail from the second crop that Taylor Made stallion with the other being GII Fountain of Youth S. winner Simplification. Not This Time's sire, the late, great Giant's Causeway, also has a Derby contender in his three-horse final crop in GII Tampa Bay Derby winner Classic Causeway. Epicenter's stakes-winning dam Silent Candy produced an Always Dreaming colt in 2020, a Tapiture filly in 2021 and an Outwork filly Mar. 14 of this year.

Saturday, Fair Grounds
TWINSPIRES.COM LOUISIANA DERBY-GII, $1,000,000, Fair Grounds, 3-26, 3yo, 1 3/16m, 1:54.38, ft.
1–EPICENTER, 122, c, 3, by Not This Time
1st Dam: Silent Candy (SW & GSP, $182,208), by Candy Ride (Arg)
2nd Dam: Silent Queen, by King of Kings (Ire)
3rd Dam: Soundproof (Ire), by Ela-Mana-Mou (Ire)
($260,000 Ylg '20 KEESEP). O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Westwind Farms (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen; J-Joel Rosario. $600,000. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GSP, 6-4-1-0, $1,010,639.
Werk Nick Rating: A++. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Zozos, 122, c, 3, Munnings–Papa's Forest, by Forestry. 'TDN Rising Star' 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. O-Barry and Joni Butzow; T-Brad H. Cox. $200,000.
3–Pioneer of Medina, 122, c, 3, Pioneerof the Nile–Lights of Medina, by Eskendereya. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($485,000 RNA Ylg '20 KEESEP). O-Sumaya U.S. Stable; B-International Equities Holding, Inc. (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. $100,000.
Margins: 2HF, 2, 3HF. Odds: 1.00, 2.50, 15.70.
Also Ran: Rattle N Roll, Galt, Call Me Midnight, Kupuna, Curly Tail, Silent Power.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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This Side Up: Horses, Not Humans, Back At The Epicenter

First things first: let's give their chance to the guys off the bench.

Okay, so there are going to be plenty of eyeballs rolled now that three of Bob Baffert's four Derby migrants are joining a former assistant, on the same circuit, with a total of 38 starters to his name this year—especially as it was the handling of another Baffert medication violation that reportedly caused the scuffle between this same gentleman and a fellow trainer at Clocker's Corner one morning last April. (Both were fined $500.)

The wiseguys will doubtless be finding a mischievous prompt in the name of one of these horses, Doppelganger (Into Mischief). But let's remember that Tim Yakteen learned the ropes not from one Hall of Famer, but two; and that the racing gods owe him, big time, after the harrowing loss of his breakout horse, Points Offthebench (Benchmark), in his final work before the Breeders' Cup. What might have been can be judged from that horse's posthumous Eclipse Award, while Yakteen has more recently reiterated what he can do, from modest resources, with Cal-bred Horse of the Year Mucho Unusual (Mucho Macho Man).

(Click below to hear this column as a podcast.)

The horsemanship of Rodolphe Brisset, meanwhile, has already made a significant contribution to Baffert's Classic resumé, in laying the foundations for the Triple Crown campaign of Justify (Scat Daddy).

So while these four horses are hardly following Life Is Good (Into Mischief) to a big rival on the East Coast, we should respect whatever combination of principle and pragmatism has governed their departure from Baffert's barn. You (and he) can argue about the level of his culpability, in piling so many storm clouds over his community, but Baffert deserves its gratitude in at least stating that his own interests—even where coinciding with precepts as critical to the functioning of our society as fairness in the workplace and the courtroom—are transcended by those of the sport, his investors and their horses.

In claiming personal credit as the impetus for their transfer, then, Baffert definitely gets some here. After all, we've repeatedly urged that the real test of decency in this situation was faced by Baffert himself—and not the friends and patrons who found their good fortune, in having a Derby horse, haplessly turned into some kind of public examination of character or fidelity. All parties had to remember that these horses are only passing through their stewardship, and that many, many others have had a stake in breeding and raising them.

To that extent, in fact, one hopes that the grooms who have been tending these horses have been given the opportunity of sharing their loan to other trainers. But it's edifying, regardless, that their boss and his patrons have in effect acknowledged that the Derby is bigger even than Bob Baffert; and not persevered in a stance that implied things to be the other way round.

First and foremost, no doubt, that represents sound business. Certainly it feels way too much to hope that a similar breadth of perspective might now also prompt Baffert just to accept that it would be far better for everybody—perhaps even for his own sanity—to call off his lawyers, without having to cede an inch in terms of his grievances; to take his sanctions on the chin; and to reset.
As it is, he has already lost the services (and permanently, one imagines) of the G1 Dubai World Cup favorite; and must instead rely on a less theatrical but splendidly stubborn animal to draw the sting of Life Is Good.

Country Grammer (Tonalist) will be carrying the same silks as poor Medina Spirit (Protonico), who has posthumous representation in this field through two of his principal crop antagonists. For if it's the “Black Gold” beneath the surface that has effectively summoned Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) and Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) to the desert, then you might say they are on pretty familiar ground. True, in helping to make the GII Louisiana Derby the strongest trial last year, they left undisturbed the status of the champion bearing that name, whose remains are interred in the Fair Grounds infield, as one of only two horses to win both that race and the Run for the Roses. Because Mandaloun (Into Mischief) gave no indication, that day at least, that he would be the one to benefit when Medina Spirit was effaced from the record.

The picturesque tale of Black Gold, named for the discovery of oil in Oklahoma, is much cherished among those who took local pride in the revival last year of the New Orleans road to Churchill. How poignant, then, is the loss this very week of the only other horse to do the double, Grindstone (Unbridled), just days after acceding (from Go For Gin) as the oldest living Derby winner.
That distinction has now passed to the 28-year-old Silver Charm (Silver Buck), as it happens in the same week that he was joined at Old Friends by his old rival Swain (Nashwan). Those two sure have a few memories to mull over together, notably the gray's photo-finish success in the 1998 Dubai World Cup.

In carving his name below that of Grindstone in the Derby roll of honor, Silver Charm represented something of a baton switch between Wayne Lukas and Baffert, albeit the senior of the two came back a couple of years later with his fourth winner in Charismatic (Summer Squall)—and could yet redeem this whole mess if Secret Oath (Arrogate) can become his fifth.

Incidentally, both Charismatic and Grindstone were out of mares by Drone, who as a son of Secretariat's sibling Sir Gaylord, duly magnified the Somethingroyal distaff brand. Somethingroyal's replication (twice) in the famous family of Summer Squall made Charismatic's failure at stud a dismal disappointment, though he was typical of the old-school priorities driving the Japanese investment that has ultimately produced 22 starters on the World Cup card.

There are never any guarantees with these animals, as we know. Black Gold's one and only foal was killed by lightning. On the other hand, the Derby trail is this spring celebrating the dynasty founded by Storm Cat, himself of course out of a Secretariat mare, through one of the final foals of Giant's Causeway and at least a couple of colts by Not This Time, including Louisiana Derby favorite Epicenter.

One of my more wearily familiar complaints is that the starting points system has stripped the sprint speed out of the first Saturday in May, and Epicenter certainly looks eligible to emulate Medina Spirit and several others to have lately controlled, pretty much at their leisure, what was previously just about the most extreme test of all for a maturing Thoroughbred. As we've discussed before, Epicenter has some copper-bottomed European stayers seeding his bottom line and somebody, somehow, is going to have to press him hard and long if he is to be softened up sufficiently for Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute) to pounce late again.

Funnily enough, Call Me Midnight himself represents a very similar blend of American dirt speed and European grass stamina, his third dam Slightly Dangerous having produced an Epsom Derby winner among several other Classic protagonists. Someday, perhaps, people will notice how often this kind of formula, once standard but now sadly neglected, still pays off when given a chance.
In the meantime let's hope that the Louisiana Derby, in tribute to the passing of Grindstone, consolidates a revival also underlined by the return to the card, in an excellent race for the GII New Orleans Classic, of last year's fourth Proxy (Tapit).

Proxy! Now there's a word that nobody should be misusing over the coming weeks, as the Baffert exiles make a belated bid to get on the Derby trail. Why shouldn't Baffert and his supporters give an opportunity to people who are on his side, people he respects and wants to do well? It will be much easier to root for these horses, this way; and they know they will never win the cynics round anyway.

If not everybody is going to love the solution, that's tough. At least the Baffert team has resolved the impasse and, if only in one regard, finally started to move things on a little. And that deserves reciprocation. So let's give Yakteen and Brisset due respect. And—quaint, crazy notion—let's restore our attention, and that of the fans, from the flaws inevitable with any and all human judgement, our own included, and back onto these beautiful horses.

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Epicenter Looks to Repeat in LA Derby

Winchell Thoroughbreds and trainer Steve Asmussen teamed up back in 2016 to take the GII Louisiana Derby with future Horse of the Year Gun Runner and that team is back with a strong chance in this year's renewal with Epicenter (Not This Time). Graduating at second asking at Churchill Downs Nov. 13, the bay was an appropriate and dominant winner of the Gun Runner S. at this venue Dec. 26. Missing by a head to Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute) in the GIII Lecomte S. here Jan. 22, the $260,000 KEESEP buy wired the GII Risen Star S. over this strip last out Feb. 19.

“It was important for [Epicenter] to start at the mile then progress like he has through the longer distances and now we get to this race and the mile and three-sixteenth could be a separator,” said Asmussen. “He has progressed well through each of these steps and his progress has been very encouraging up to this point and he will just have to prove it again on Saturday.”

Call Me Midnight took several tries to break his maiden, finally breaking through at fifth asking at Churchill Downs Nov. 13 and was well beaten in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Nov. 27. He returned to winning ways with a late-running score in the Lecomte last out. Also exiting the Risen Star is fourth-place finisher Pioneer of Medine (Pioneerof the Nile).

The Brad Cox-trainer Zozos (Munnings) puts his unbeaten record on the line and steps up in class in this event. A debut winner sprinting at this oval Jan. 23, the dark bay earned the 'TDN Rising Star' tag with a 10 1/4-length tour de force when extended to two turns at Oaklawn Feb. 11.

Rattle N Roll (Connect) looks to rebound in this event after finishing a non-factor sixth in Gulfstream's GII Fountain of Youth S. in his seasonal bow Mar. 5. Earning his diploma at third asking at Churchill Sept. 23, he closed resolutely for a dominant victory in Keeneland's GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. Oct. 9.

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