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The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 for April 19

With all the points-earning preps completed, the GI Kentucky Derby picture moves into “microscope mode” as we approach the two-week mark. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. Access that list here.

1) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-1-1, $713,000. Last Start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7. KY Derby Points: 114.

Zandon won sprinting at first asking while never more than two lengths off a rapid tempo. Stretched to nine furlongs in the GII Remsen S., he stalked the pace and was in it to win it right down to the final jump. Then he started rallying from farther back. This $170,000 KEESEP colt broke in the air, got relegated to last, then accelerated widest on the far turn when third in the GII Risen Star S. His GI Blue Grass S. score was accomplished via meticulous last-to-first handling by Flavien Prat. So which running style will Zandon deploy on Derby day? Handicappers considering backing (or betting against) him will want to know, especially in light of the fact that the last eight Derbies have been won by horses either on the lead or not far from it. It's easy to fall in love with closers because of the dramatic nature of their runs. But if you marveled at Prat's deft outside-inside-outside maneuvering through the far turn and upper stretch of the Blue Grass, you can also envision how that same strategy might result in getting boxed or blocked in the heavy traffic of a 20-horse field. That's why speed is so effective in the Derby. The very nature of out-front positioning affords those horses the advantage of leaving chaos behind-where deep closers are more likely to encounter it.

2) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $1,010,639. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 164.

Epicenter will have a tactical edge over Zandon on Derby day because he's a more proven commodity who has shown over a larger sample of races that he can consistently attain optimal positioning. This $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time doesn't need to lead the cavalry charge into the first turn. But he does figure to be forcing the issue, and the fact that he's been the leader at the eighth pole in every one of his races (except his maiden sprint debut) suggests he's highly likely to be 1-2-3 turning for home. But you have to wonder if history will be Epicenter's friend as he tries to gut out that final quarter mile. A six-week break between a final prep and the Derby has only yielded two winners on the first Saturday in May since 1929, and only two horses since the 1894 inception of the GII Louisiana Derby have also crossed the finish wire first in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen, despite his many accomplishments, is 0-for-23 in the Derby. But that unappealing stat is largely based on his having started so many “just taking a shot” horses over the past two decades who weren't true contenders. Outside of Gun Runner (third in 2016) and Curlin (third in 2007), there are no A-list luminaries among Asmussen's mostly forgettable list of Derby also-rans.

3) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY).
T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-0-2, $621,800. Last Start:
1st GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

If Zandon's strong suit is athleticism fused with fighting spirit, and Epicenter's is rock-solid consistency, Mo Donegal rates an edge in terms of late-race torque that is both visually impressive and backed by strong final-eighth times in nine-furlong races. His identical, ground-gaining :12.33 final furlongs in both the GII Remsen S. and the GII Wood Memorial S. are the quickest among all 2021-22 Derby preps at that distance. This $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo has never lost ground in the stretch runs of his five career races, and in each of his three wins he had to wrest control from leaders who punched back with purpose. But from a historical perspective, it's been a long time since the path to Louisville ran through New York. Only three horses in the last 58 years-Thunder Gulch, Go for Gin and Pleasant Colony-have parlayed Remsen and Derby wins. It's also been 22 years since the Wood winner went on to capture the Derby (Fusaichi Pegasus). Yet if Mo Donegal were to win the Derby, he'd match Pleasant Colony's rare 1980-81 triple of winning the Remsen, Wood and the Derby.

4) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-3-1-2, $515,350. Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 74.

The road to the Derby is annually littered with horses who appear dominant in Florida's shorter winter preps yet can't carry their winning to 10 furlongs in the spring. Can Simplification jump that gap? The No. 4 spot in this week's rankings is where “raw ability” gives way to “the promise of possibility.” This son of Not This Time ($50,000 RNA at KEENOV) was a starter in all four of Gulfstream's sophomore preps for the Derby-wiring the one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man S.; botching the break but closing well to get second in the GIII Holy Bull S., then winning the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. with a prolonged bid from three-eighths out. His beaten-fave third in the GI Florida Derby has a legit excuse attached to it, as Simplification sparred with a sacrificial pacemaker, then got immediately hooked into a second duel when jockey Jose Ortiz decided to fully unleash him with 4 1/2 furlongs left in the race. A Derby scenario in which Simplification gets asked for his best run a little later might be better suited to his still-evolving stalking style.

5) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY).
T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $321,500. Last Start:
2nd GII Wood Memorial S. Next Start: TBD. KY Derby Points: 50.

Early Voting is the highest-ranked horse on this list whose connections have yet to fully commit to a start in the Derby. Trainer Chad Brown his cited Early Voting's light experience (just three races) and a desire to see where this $200,000 KEESEP frontrunner fits in the Derby's projected pace as several reasons for waiting to make a decision. Early Voting set a spirited tempo despite being relatively unpressured in the early stages of the Wood Memorial, and Jose Ortiz wisely chose not to overextend this colt in a late-race stretch skirmish when second against the more experienced Mo Donegal. If Early Voting presses on to the Derby, Ortiz will face a commitment choice, as he also has been riding No. 4-ranked Simplification.

6) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-2-0, $549,810. Last Start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 70.

It's tough to knock Smile Happy's two sophomore starts. But it's also difficult say with confidence this 'TDN Rising Star' has demonstrated significant progression off his 2-for-2 juvenile campaign. That juxtaposition of undefeated form at age two and a winless season so far at age three is likely to get you about 12-1 on Derby day if you're willing to bet trainer Kenny McPeek has, in fact, precisely honed this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) to peak over 10 furlongs. Smile Happy was a hard-charging second in the GII Risen Star S. after jockey Corey Lanerie waited too long to uncoil on the far turn, then split horses in upper stretch and ran up on the heels of a tiring rival. In the Blue Grass S., Lanerie's move was timed much better. But after Smile Happy snatched the lead from the pacemaker at Keeneland's quarter pole, Zandon blew by him at the furlong marker. A clean trip in the Derby puts a tighter Smile Happy in the hunt for getting first run at the pacemakers on the far turn.

7) TIZ THE BOMB (c, Hit It a Bomb–Tiz the Key, by Tiznow) O-Magdalena Racing, Lessee. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales History: $330,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 8-5-1-0, $1,044,401. Last Start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, TP, Apr. 2. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 110.

Tiz the Bomb has eight races of experience, with seven starts at a mile or longer. He's won over dirt, over both “good” and “firm” turf, over the undulating Kentucky Downs lawn, and over Turfway's Tapeta. His past performances show the most experience in large fields-he won a 14-horse Grade II stakes at age two, and has three other times finished first or second in races with 12 and 13 starters. Yet despite this broad base of experience, this $330,000 FTKSEL colt by Hit It a Bomb figures to be “on sale” in the Derby mutuels simply because he ran one poor, kickback-eating dirt race off a three-month layoff (the Feb. 5 GIII Holy Bull S., from which the first three finishers all returned to win graded stakes). Based on that one aberrational performance, bettors are likely to deduce that Tiz the Bomb will be averse to the dirt at Churchill. And he just might be-you never know until the gates open. But you'll be getting an overlaid 25-1 or so to find out of his multi-surface staying power works on the Louisville dirt, as opposed to the 15-1 price that more realistically corresponds to Tiz the Bomb's chances.

8) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

A bet on 'TDN Rising Star' Charge It in the Derby will require a leap of faith that he has matured significantly through the month of April and into the first week of May. You can see the raw makings of a really nice racehorse based on just three starts. And Charge It's pedigree (by Tapit and anchored by distance-loving second dam Take Charge Lady) definitely has longer-the-better underpinnings. But while his second in the GI Florida Derby was commendable considering it was his initial two-turn try and first race against winners, Charge it was not fully focused through the lane, and the Florida Derby's blah final furlong in :14.09 was the second-slowest final eighth among all nine-furlong preps this season (behind only the muddy GIII Withers S. in :14.15). In addition, 13 horses have now run back out of Charge It's two MSW races, and not a single one of those rivals won their next start, raising legit quality-of-competition questions.

9) TAIBA (c, Gun Runner–Needmore Flattery, by Flatter) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc. B-Bruce C Ryan (KY). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $490,200. Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby.

We have owner Amr Zedan diplomatically asserting he's not out to avenge his under-appeal Derby DQ of now-deceased Medina Spirit–even after having gone against the advice of his trainer by insisting on a Santa Anita Derby start so Taiba could earn last-chance Kentucky Derby qualifying points. We also have Hall-of-Fame jockey Mike Smith, who's about to be asked ceaselessly over the next 2 1/2 weeks to compare this precocious 'TDN Rising Star' to Justify, the dazzling Triple Crown winner he rode in 2018. So what will be the result when the narrative of redemption gets coupled in mainstream media with the sky's-the-limit appeal of a flashy, undefeated prospect? Probably the most overbet Derby phenom in a long time. Yes, this son of Gun Runner ($140,000 FTKOCT; $1.7 million FTFMAR) is worthy of superlatives after posting back-to-back triple-digit Beyers in both a MSW sprint and the Santa Anita Derby, a race in which this colt sparred the entire length of the lane against a more seasoned stablemate. But Taiba would truly have to be a once-in-a-generation outlier to thrive against top-of-the-crop competition at 10 furlongs in lifetime start number three, all while shipping for the first time and experiencing a field far larger and far more talented than anything he's faced in limited SoCal action. Too much too soon is the verdict here-although admittedly, it would be pretty neat to witness Taiba shatter conventional wisdom.

10) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-3-3-0, $435,600. Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

I'm attempting to take a more forgiving look at Messier's Santa Anita Derby second, a race I initially described as a “failure to slam the door.” After all, this $470,000 FTKSEL 'TDN Rising Star' forced a favored pacemaker through robust fractions, then, somewhat unexpectedly, had to work hard to try and swat away a more-resilient-than-expected Taiba (Messier initially put away that stablemate in upper stretch, but Taiba re-engaged and powered past). Considering the Santa Anita Derby was the first outing in eight weeks for this Empire Maker colt-and taking into account that Messier was unlikely to have been fully cranked for the effort-the try wasn't half bad (99 Beyer). But the sticking point I can't quite overcome is Messier's penchant for losing at low odds. He's twice been beaten at fifty cents on the dollar, including a no-excuse letdown in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity when he was one-paced after getting a strong second run on the spent speed.

11) BARBER ROAD (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image) O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY). T-John Alexander Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 8-2-3-1, $650,720. Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 58.

Barber Road ($15,000 KEENOV) isn't going to wow anybody in the Derby. But this gritty Race Day gray might be capable of hammering past a good portion of the field with his usual late-race determination, and he figures to be picking off horses when distanced-challenged contenders are bailing out. Of all the entrants who'll start north of 40-1 in this year's Derby, I respect this John Ortiz trainee the most. He lost a shoe at some point in the Arkansas Derby, then lost momentum a furlong from the finish when he ran up on the heels of a caving pacemaker. But Barber Road was keen to re-rally, and he prevailed in the “race within the race” by nailing the favorite in a tight place photo. This is all pretty good no-pressure Derby mojo for a colt who's already bankrolled more than 36 times his auction price.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC & La Milagrosa Stable, LLC.
B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

The Florida Derby has produced more Kentucky Derby winners (24) than any other stakes, and the winners of that Gulfstream prep are usually well backed in Louisville. But this year White Abarrio ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) figures to be the first Florida Derby winner since Materiality in 2015 to go off at 10-1 or higher in the wagering. This athletically nimble Race Day gray has some “punch above his weight” appeal, and we've already seen him beat such well-regarded contenders as Simplification (twice), Mo Donegal, Charge It and Tiz the Bomb. But this Gulfstream specialist (4-for-4) benefitted from ideal circumstances in both of this graded stakes victories, making you wonder if he can improve further under the duress of 10 furlongs. In the traffic-snarled Holy Bull S., White Abarrio enjoyed clear sailing up front while four of his main foes encountered trip woes. And in the Florida Derby, three of White Abarrio's rivals were casualties of poorly executed pace decisions that led to two separate, self-immolating speed duels before the field hit the far turn.

Potentially rounding out the starting gate…

13) Zozos (Munnings): It was interesting that Zozos got bet down to 5-2 second choice behind even-money Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby. That was both his stakes debut and first non-Lasix race after winning his maiden and an allowance, and Zozos had never led the field in the early stages of either of those first two victories. But this 'TDN Rising Star' and homebred for Barry and Joni Butzow forged straight to the front and held well after setting legit splits under two-pronged pressure from a hounding 15-1 long shot and the more intimidating Epicenter, who eventually powered past for the win. Right now Zozos is a true wild card for the Derby. Is he a piece of the pace? A capable presser on the improve? His sire, grandsire, and damsire (Munnings, Speightstown, Forestry) all made their marks sprinting, so there's not much distance-centric foundation in his immediate family.

14) Morello (Classic Empire): A points qualifier who remains uncommitted, Morello ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) went off as the undefeated favorite in the Wood Memorial, but he hit the side of the gate at the break and never really recovered. He's 3-for-3 in one-turn races, but untested in terms of both distance and his ability to handle elite-level competition.

15) Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}): He won't truly turn three until May 5, but the GII UAE Derby victor is 3-for-4 on dirt with all three victories at nine furlongs or greater. Since the 2000 inception of the UAE Derby, 11 of its winners have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish among them was sixth, along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try.

16) Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile): This $430,000 KEESEP colt has some likeable attributes, but not enough to elevate him to a serious Derby threat. He started his career with two Tapeta wins; was not disgraced when a 24-1 fifth, beaten 7 3/4 lengths on the dirt against Epicenter, Smile Happy and Zandon, then chased Tiz the Bomb home when second at Turfway. He closed capably on Saturday to win the GIII Lexington S. over 1 1/16 miles, cornering four wide on both turns. Originally with the pace, Tawny Port backed off, then sprang a late run with his head cocked toward the stands while the only one gaining ground on a tiring leader. This colt finished well, but he faced no daunting late-race competition over Keeneland's short-stretch configuration.

17) Cyberknife (Gun Runner): In the Arkansas Derby, jockey Florent Geroux sensed Cyberknife was keen early. So he opted out of dueling through a first quarter in an unsustainable :22.11, then barreled through three successively slower quarter-mile splits and a final eighth in a so-so :13.18 to win going away while shifting and drifting through the lane. Not exactly a work of art for this $400,000 FTKSEL colt, but that initial Grade I impression won't matter much if Cyberknife keeps winning and his Beyers remain on an upward arc (last three: 72, 87, 92).

18) Un Ojo (Laoban): The 75-1 winner of the GII Rebel S. has only one functioning eye because of an unfortunate run-in with a tree branch as a yearling. The last time there was a right-eye-only horse in the Derby was in 2017, when Patch ran an admirable 14th despite drawing outermost gate 20. Because his “overcoming adversity” story kept getting repeated, Patch went off way, way underlaid in the betting at 14-1. Will similar support be bestowed upon Un Ojo? We know he can save ground and make one chug-home run. Rain would also be a plus-his two best races occurred on a muddy track (second in the Withers) and on an Oaklawn surface listed as “fast” when the Rebel commenced in a just-starting downpour.

19) Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front): Seven races in Dubai at Meydan and Jebel Ali since Dec. 2, with the first six of them at seven furlongs or shorter (two wins). Three-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA at KEESEP; $169,743 ARQDEA) sought the lead in the UAE Derby and held well until the deep end of the Meydan stretch. Trainer Bhupat Seemar has never started a horse in North America under his own license, but he worked for five years under Bob Baffert two decades ago, including when that stable won the 2002 Derby with War Emblem.

20) Happy Jack (Oxbow): He's winless beyond the maiden ranks from five starts and has never been closer than 10 1/2 lengths to the winner in any of his three Santa Anita stakes against short fields. Best Beyer is 83. Yet he currently holds the final Derby qualifying position based on his accrued 30 points.

The post The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 for April 19 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Epicenter, Echo Zulu on Track for Asmussen

Trainer Steve Asmussen sent likely GI Kentucky Derby and GI Kentucky Oaks favorites Epicenter (Not This Time) and Echo Zulu (Gun Runner) out to work at Churchill Downs Sunday morning. Exercise rider Wilson Fabian was aboard for both works.

“Both horses are training extremely well. It's obviously exciting going into the Oaks and the Derby to have two horses of this caliber doing so well,” Asmussen said.

Winchell Thoroughbreds' Epicenter, coming off wins in the GII Risen Star S. and GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, worked five furlongs in 1:00.80 (7/26) in company with 6-year-old Gun It (Tapit). He clipped through opening fractions of :12.60, :24.20 and :36 and galloped out strongly around the clubhouse turn and onto the backside with a six-furlong gallop-out in 1:13.60 and completed seven furlongs in 1:27. Epicenter finished his move with a one-mile clocking of 1:44.

“With Epicenter the spacing of his races since December has been very effective for him,” Asmussen said. “We're just trying to put the building blocks and space for him to handle the 1 1/4-miles in the Derby here. I couldn't feel any better with how he's doing here and how he loves Churchill Downs.”

L and N Racing and Winchell Thoroughbreds' undefeated champion filly Echo Zulu cruised five furlongs in 1:00 flat (4/26) outside of 3-year-old maiden colt King Ottoman (Curlin). She clipped off eighth-mile fractions of :13.20, :24.60 and :36.20 and she and King Ottoman galloped out six furlongs in 1:13.20 and seven furlongs in 1:28.20.

Echo Zulu ended her 2-year-old campaign with a win in the GI NetJets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies last November and returned to gut out a narrow victory in the Mar. 26 GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks.

“Her coming off the bench after quite a layoff and a determined victory, I was anxious to get her here,” Asmussen said. “She actually had not trained at Churchill. She went from Keeneland straight to Saratoga, then won at Belmont and went to California. She has taken to the racetrack in both of her works very impressively.”

Working in company was normal practice for the two sophomores.

“It's been standard [to work both of these horses in company] and the company they worked with is who they've been with in New Orleans. We're trying to create more of the same success they had there.”

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In Due Time Seeks to Land on Derby Bubble in Lexington

It's last call for many in Keeneland's GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. as the race to solidify, or sneak into, the GI Kentucky Derby starting gate enters the final furlong. In Due Time (Not This Time) heads this field with an ever-improving resume in both distance and class. A debut winner in the mud at Monmouth last summer, the chestnut was shelved for six months, resurfacing with a third in a Gulfstream optional claimer Jan. 8. A dominant optional claimer winner next out when extended to a mile in Hallandale Feb. 4, good for a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, he was a strong second behind Simplification (Not This Time) in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. last out Mar. 5. In Due Time currently sits in 29th on the Derby leaderboard with 20 points and he could secure 20 more with a win here, which would put him right on the bubble for a spot in the Derby starting gate.

One who races to keep his spot as number 20 on the leaderboard is the hard-trying Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile), who is one of five runners with 40 points. A win here will jump the colt into 12th with 60. Opening his account with a pair of wins on the Turfway synthetic, Tawny Port closed to be fifth in his first try on dirt in the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds Feb. 19, which was one by Derby points leader Epicenter (Not This Time). Second to Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb) last out Apr. 2 in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. back on the synthetic at Turfway Park, Tawny Port will try to overcome a two-week turnaround as the 5-2 morning line favorite.

The formidable WinStar and Siena Farm partnership will send out two in hopes of landing points and a spot on the bubble: Major General (Constitution) and Strava (Into Mischief), who is also owner in partnership with Denny Crum. A $420,000 KEESEP buy, Major General followed a first-out score with a win in the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill in September. He adds blinkers for this event after a non-factor 10th in the GII Tampa Bay Derby Mar. 12. Also adding blinkers here, $825,000 KEENOV purchase Strava captured his debut sprinting at Keeneland in October and was second next out in the slop at Fair Grounds Jan. 15. Extended to two turns in NOLA a month later, the bay checked in third behind recent GI Arkansas Derby victor Cyberknife (Gun Runner).

D. Wayne Lukas saddles Ethereal Road (Quality Road), who is back in just a week after a tired seventh-place effort Apr. 9 in the local GI Toyota Blue Grass S.

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TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 For Apr. 12

All the nine-furlong preps for the GI Kentucky Derby are in the books, but Saturday's GIII Lexington S. still offers 20 points to the winner, so there could be some shakeout in the bottom tier of the Top 20. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” points leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. Access that list here.

1) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-1-1, $713,000. Last Start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7. KY Derby Points: 114.

This beautifully balanced, nearly black colt vaulted to No. 1 based on his assertive, last-to-first score in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. Although still light in terms of having just four races, it wouldn't be a stretch to say this $170,000 KEESEP son of Upstart has packed an outsized share of “street smarts” experience into his preps, which include the unusual sequence of three consecutive nine-furlong stakes. He was into the bit, but not anxious through the first turn of the Blue Grass, and jockey Flavien Prat allowed Zandon to drift back to last by the half-mile pole while hemmed in by also-rans. Still well behind three-eighths out, Zandon clicked into “chase” mode with an outside bid and quickly had the first flight within his sights. Prat then had to make a quick positioning decision that put Zandon back down toward the rail, yet that path tightened up at the head of the lane. Zandon boldly shouldered his way back outside three-sixteenths from home, then took dead aim on favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy) before swatting away that rival with purpose en route to a 98 Beyer Speed Figure score. We'll let this well-earned victory sink in, but in next week's rankings, we'll dissect whether Zandon's recent switch to off-the-pace closing is a tactical disadvantage in a race like the Derby, which has had a speed-centric winning profile for most of the past decade.

I spent a good chunk of Sunday and Monday flip-flopping the top two in these rankings before finally settling on Zandon at No. 1 and Epicenter at No. 2. Although Epicenter has the preferred pace-centric running style that matches more favorably with the last eight Derby winners, and he has also compiled the broader, stronger base of overall work, Zandon's against-adversity Blue Grass win was delivered with an intimidating panache that suggests he's capable of ratcheting up the level of competition beyond what Epicenter has experienced through most of his New Orleans campaign. Yes, this $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time did beat Zandon in their lone head-to-head showdown in the GII Risen Star S., but Epicenter coasted home on the front end while Zandon was compromised by a bad break; some 2 1/2 months between that matchup and Derby day could result in a different outcome. Still, enough intangibles remain in Epicenter's favor: he fires off fraction after fraction of up-tempo splits, fights back when challenged in the stretch, and has galloped out with authority in victories at nine furlongs and 1 3/16 miles.

3) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-0-2, $621,800. Last Start: 1st GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

Mo Donegal is capable of sitting back and uncorking one sustained bid, like he did from 4 1/2 furlongs out when winning Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. But rather than blowing by the field with one big, swooping move like a lot of closers, he smolders with sustained intensity and coerces rivals into submission with relentless late-race focus. This $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo has twice accelerated through final furlongs timed in exactly :12.33 in 1 1/8-mile races, with those GII Remsen S. and Wood wins representing the fastest closing eighths at that distance among all 2021-22 preps. Despite that obvious plus, it appears as if Mo Donegal will be un-partnering with jockey Joel Rosario. Dave Grening of DRF reported Sunday that Irad Ortiz, Jr., will likely regain the mount (he's been aboard three times previously) because Rosario is expected to remain tethered to Epicenter.

It might appear as if Simplification regressed a touch when third and failing to deliver as the fave in the Florida Derby. Don't buy into that line of reasoning. The farther the Florida Derby gets in his rear-view mirror, the more potential there is for Simplification to head to Louisville as a “wiseguy” horse perceived as capable of doing damage in the 15-1 range. He's an energetic stalker who attended an honest pace and was prompted to crack the main speed in that Grade I try at Gulfstream, but engaging so soon (4 1/2 furlongs out) only resulted in Simplification getting hooked into a mid-race melee that continued through an unsustainable tempo. When confronted by a fresh challenge from the eventual winner, Simplification didn't come unglued, and he stayed on commendably without being hammered on. Every race he's run at a mile or longer has resulted in a 90+ Beyer, and there appears to be a firm enough foundation for an improved effort May 7.

5) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow)
O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $321,500. Last Start: 2nd GII Wood Memorial S. Next Start: TBD. KY Derby Points: 50.

Had Early Voting been on the winning side of the neck photo in the Wood Memorial, he'd likely be ranked within the top three contenders. But this $200,000 KEESEP colt is still an intriguing work-in-progress who'll go off in the 12-1 range in the Derby, and if you liked him before Saturday's near-miss, what you saw should embolden you to consider this Chad Brown trainee a very legitimate pace presence in Louisville. When favored Morello (Classic Empire) hit the gate at the break and couldn't effectively pressure Early Voting, Jose Ortiz didn't let this colt dawdle on the lead. Early Voting's high cruising gear enabled him to rattle off consecutive quarters of :23.86, :23.89, :23.84 and :24.04, and he held well against the more experienced Mo Donegal in a deep-stretch grind-down without being tapped dry. Poke around in his pedigree and you'll find more reasons than not to like him at 10 furlongs.

6) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP,
4-2-2-0, $549,810. Last Start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 70.

'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy got hooked five and three wide on the turns as the beaten fave in the Blue Grass S. while pressing a moderate tempo from post 10 over a heavy-ish, drying-out track. This powerful son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) got first run on the wilting pacemaker at the quarter pole and led until the furlong marker while offering only token resistance to Zandon. While the effort wasn't poor, it didn't put an exclamation point on his two sophomore preps, which were both runner-up tries that lacked the true spark of his open-lengths juvenile victories. You have to go back to Super Saver in 2010 to find any horse who crossed the finish wire first in the Derby who did not win a sophomore race prior to the first Saturday in May.

7) TIZ THE BOMB (c, Hit It a Bomb–Tiz the Key, by Tiznow) O-Magdalena Racing, Lessee. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales History: $330,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-5-1-0, $1,044,401. Last Start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, TP, Apr. 2. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 110.

Over the next four weeks, you can expect talk about Tiz the Bomb to be dominated by the “Will he handle dirt?” question. That's the commanding narrative, but it probably isn't as crucial an angle as Derby prognosticators will make it out to be. Sure, it's natural to ask that question considering this $330,000 FTKSEL colt by Hit It a Bomb is a two-time stakes winner on both Tapeta and grass (while also finishing second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf). But both of his dirt races–a gaudy 14 1/4-length MSW win at Ellis Park and a 20 1/4-length drubbing in the GIII Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream–are too aberrational to use as a measuring stick for what will happen when the dirt flies in the Derby. Let's face it: every year there are plenty of otherwise-capable dirt horses who can't tolerate the crowding and jamming in the Derby's notorious traffic. At least with Tiz the Bomb, we know he can confidently negotiate a crowd, because his five best races came in fields of 10, 12, 12, 13 and 14. Ignore him at your own pari-mutuel peril.

8) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

Lightly raced 'TDN Rising Star' Charge It, a Whisper Hill Farm homebred by Tapit, closed gamely enough in the Florida Derby to make it difficult to pass up the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that the Derby offers. Did Charge It falter when running greenly through the stretch and failing to seal the deal despite several chances when second in that prep? Absolutely. But most horses making their third lifetime starts don't have a winning edge honed at that stage of their careers, and for Charge It, you have to consider he was making his two-turn debut and first try against winners in a Grade I stakes at the demanding distance of nine furlongs. Even though he's gray, he's a definite dark horse for Louisville.

9) TAIBA (c, Gun Runner–Needmore Flattery, by Flatter)
'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc. B-Bruce C Ryan (KY). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $490,200. Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby.

Taiba, who will turn three on Apr. 13, is this year's out-of-nowhere party crasher who burst onto the Derby scene with a 103-Beyer MSW win Mar. 5 followed by an unlikely takedown of the GI Santa Anita Derby in start number two. This 'TDN Rising Star' stacked up three across the track through the first turn behind the two favorites on Saturday, then Mike Smith backed him off through quarter-mile segments in :23.23, :23.43 and :24.27. When highly regarded stablemate Messier (Empire Maker) cracked Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) at the quarter pole, Taiba was into the bridle and almost immediately alongside at the head of the stretch. Messier initially kicked away, but this Gun Runner colt wouldn't quit, and even though Messier was shortening stride in the run to the wire (fourth quarter in :25.04 and final eighth in :12.70), Taiba kept on extending fluidly, driving clear to win by 2 1/4 lengths (102 Beyer). He'll be getting tossed into the very deep end of the Derby pool with only two lifetime starts to his name. But Taiba could be capable of making a bigger splash than conventional wisdom suggests.

10) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson,
Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-3-3-0, $435,600. Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Messier's record of three wins and three seconds from six starts looks strong on paper. But from a visual standpoint, his failure to slam the door when races were his for the taking in both the GII Los Alamitos Futurity and the Santa Anita Derby is troubling. Which son of Empire Maker ($470,000 FTKSEL) will show up at Churchill? The one who blew out the GIII Lewis S. field by 15 lengths with a 103 Beyer or the one who got manhandled by a just-graduated maiden in the Santa Anita Derby? Messier's connections have stressed all campaign long that he's a robust, well-balanced athlete with the mental prowess to match. But we've seen only glimpses of that in the afternoons, and he's never faced more than five rivals in a race while winning only once around two turns.

It's too early to start formulating Derby betting strategies, but Barber Road has started to loom on my periphery as an “uh-oh” contender who could derail Derby exotics. He'll go off in the 60-1 range and doesn't project to be an obvious win threat. But he has the pedigree to handle 10 furlongs (via grandsires Tapit and Southern Image), knows how to kick late, and shows a willingness to bull his way through trouble. He has an eight-race foundation and two good showings at Churchill (a 6 1/4-length win and a second, beaten half a length), yet Barber Road figures to be completely off the radar of the general public because of subpar speed figures (best Beyer 88) and having gone nearly a half-year (since Nov. 10) without winning.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC & La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

You could make a case for the scrappy, athletic White Abarrio based on his overachieving style relative to his $7,500 OBSWIN and $40,000 OBSMAR auction pricing. You might also foresee a scenario in which this Race Day gray's nimble way of going and tactical speed afford him an advantage in the chaotic, 20-horse scramble for Derby positioning. But you also have to legitimately wonder if White Abarrio peaked in the Florida Derby, and if the combination of that 96-Beyer victory and this colt's having spiked a fever in the week leading up to that race took more out of him than might seem evident. Did you know that 33 consecutive grays have gone to post and lost the Derby since the last gray, Giacomo, roared home at 50-1 in 2005?

Potentially rounding out the starting gate…

13) Zozos (Munnings): A decent small-sample body of work for this 'TDN Rising Star', whose 40 qualifying points based on finishing second behind Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby currently rank 17th on the cutoff list. He was on his left lead through the stretch of his MSW win, unleashed a deft turn of foot at the quarter pole of his allowance victory, then led for as long as he could through the long Fair Grounds stretch over 1 3/16 miles before Epicenter picked him off in the Louisiana Derby. Homebred for Barry and Joni Butzow has a 70-92-98 Beyer pattern, but the overall grade is “incomplete” based on just three starts compacted into two months of racing experience and now a six-week gap into the Derby.

14) Morello (Classic Empire): He has the points to get into the Derby, but his connections are going to wait to see how he trains at Churchill before making a commitment. Morello ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) took enough money to go off as the undefeated favorite in the Wood Memorial, but his two-turn debut got derailed before it even started when he slammed the side of the gate at the break.

15) Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}): He's 3-for-4 on dirt with all three victories at nine furlongs or greater and a trouble-line excuse for his sixth-place try when only beaten 3 1/2 lengths. Got solidly bumped at the break of the G2 UAE Derby then uncoiled with a long drive on his incorrect lead in deep stretch to reel in the pacemaker on a track that was favorable to speed.

16) In Due Time (Not This Time): Three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) will try for both a confidence-building and points-garnering boost in Saturday's GIII Lexington S. at Keeneland. That final qualifying stakes on the Derby prep schedule awards 20 points to the winner, and a victory would put this colt at 40 points, which is the current cutoff mark to get into the Derby (defections and some earnings tiebreakers will change things over the next 3 1/2 weeks).

17) Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front): This late supplement to the Triple Crown and three-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA at KEESEP; $169,743 ARQDEA) has a 2-3-0 record from seven starts in Dubai, and he showed a willingness to forge to the front in the UAE Derby. He got collared in the final strides, but was not drubbed in defeat and his ability to engage over 1 3/16 miles stands him in good stead for a crack at 10 furlongs in Louisville. But realistically, you'd have to bank on him running the race of his life while a number of highly heralded contenders falter in order to envision this colt wearing a blanket of roses come May 7.

18) Cyberknife (Gun Runner): Prior to winning the GI Arkansas Derby, trainer Brad Cox described Cyberknife as a “tough horse to deal with-he always has been.” That may be an understatement. This $400,000 FTKSEL colt was DQ'd in his first start, veered through the stretch in start number two, got caught wide on both bends in his stakes debut, dropped his jockey in the post parade of the Arkansas Derby, then weaved home erratically while other contenders found trouble behind him. But he's starting to win races at the right time of year, and Cyberknife has now paired 87 and 92 Beyer scores since Cox removed blinkers. His damsire, Flower Alley, was also a late bloomer who won the 10-furlong GI Travers S. in 2005 and was beaten only a length at that same distance in that year's GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

19) Un Ojo (Laoban): Every Kentucky Derby needs an against-all-odds longshot to spice up the story line, and this gelding certainly qualifies with his 75-1 rain-soaked shocker in the GII Rebel S. But this son of Laoban lacks sight in his left eye (he lost it in an accident as a yearling, and Un Ojo means “one eye” in Spanish), and considering the ordeal he endured in the Arkansas Derby, you have to wonder if negotiating a crowded 20-horse field is going to be a dicey proposition for him. “He was sawed-off and bounced off the fence twice,” trainer Ricky Courville told the BloodHorse last week, adding that Un Ojo required surgical staples to close flesh wounds on his blind-side shoulder. “He kept hitting the rail and Ramon [Vazquez] had to check him out of there and he said the horse panicked and tried to jump the fence,… He's had some stiffness and we'll give him some time to get over it, We're still going to the Kentucky Derby so far.”

20) Slow Down Andy (Nyquist): When winning with blinkers on in the GIII Sunland Derby, Slow Down Andy withstood legit pace pressure as the 6-5 favorite, which was a plus. But the blinkers were supposed to add focus to his stretch runs, which have been erratic in the past, with the Los Alamitos Futurity a prime example. But Slow Down Andy again took to shifting and drifting in that weak-on-paper New Mexico stakes, this time while swishing his tail late in the lane. Right now the most favorable Derby angle for Slow Down Andy is rooted in history: his sire won the 2016 Derby, and this homebred was owned and trained by these same connections (Reddam Racing and Doug O'Neill).

The post TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 For Apr. 12 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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