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Taking Stock: It’s High Time for This Stallion

The Classic season is over. A surface reading shows that Arrogate (Unbridled's Song), Keen Ice (Curlin), and Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}) got the GI Kentucky Oaks, GI Kentucky Derby, and GI Preakness S. winners, respectively, from their first crops, and proven star sire Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie), who had a Derby winner from his first crop in 2016, sired the GI Belmont S. winner. Sometimes, however, what's between the lines is as important as what's on the page, and Taylor Made's Not This Time (Giant's Causeway), whose second-crop sons Epicenter and Simplification were major players in the run-up to the Classics and in the Derby and Preakness themselves, occupied that white space this season.

Epicenter, who won two Grade II Derby preps at Fair Grounds–the Risen Star S. and the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby–was sent off as the Derby favorite and finished an admirable second. He returned in the Preakness as the race favorite and again finished second, this time with trouble and a ride that gave him way too much to do.

Simplification won the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream and was third in the GI Curlin Florida Derby. He was also in the Derby, finishing fourth, a neck ahead of subsequent Belmont S. winner Mo Donegal.

These two, both from Candy Ride mares, were joined by two other Not This Time 3-year-olds vying for spots in the Classics. In Due Time was second to Simplification in the Fountain of Youth, over Howling Time in ninth, who bounced back to finish second by a scant nose to Cyberknife (Gun Runner), the GI Arkansas Derby winner, in the GIII Matt Winn S. at Churchill a day after the Belmont S.

All told, Not This Time, with his oldest foals just four, is represented by 18 black-type winners, including two Grade I winners–the filly Just One Time won the GI Madison S. at Keeneland a month before the Derby, and Princess Noor was a top-level winner at two in 2020. Seven of the 18 are graded stakes winners.

This is an impressive haul for the half-brother to Lane's End's Liam's Map, more so because they were all conceived on a $15,000 stud fee. It's only the last two seasons that his stud fee has risen, to $40,000 (2021), $45,000 (the early part of this year), and $75,000 (later part of this year). The mares bred to him at higher fees will no doubt include some significantly better producers and racetrack performers than those covered his first four years, and they will include some mares Taylor Made has specifically handpicked for him by pedigree analysis. All of this is certain to elevate the stallion's stakes production in the coming years.

The broodmare sires of his seven graded winners are respectable enough, with dams by Candy Ride (two), Tapit, Speightstown, Smart Strike, Cape Town, and Wilko. However, the modest last sales prices of these mares tell the real story: stakes-placed Simply Confection (Candy Ride) sold for $80,000, in foal to Not This Time; Silent Candy (Candy Ride), a Grade III-placed stakes winner, made $130,000, in foal to Scat Daddy; non-winner Delightful Melody (Tapit) was a $65,000 RNA, in foal to Flameaway; Ida Clark (Speightstown), a winner of $25,580, sold for $60,000, in foal to Outwork; unraced Smart Jilly (Smart Strike) was a $70,000 2-year-old; unraced Running Creek (Cape Town) sold for $35,000, in foal to Latent Heat; and Grade III winner Sheza Smoke Show (Wilko) sold for $185,000, in foal to Not This Time.
The first graded winner for each of these mares was by Not This Time. In some cases, they were bred to high-class stallions before producing their graded winners.

Silent Candy, the dam of Epicenter, had an unraced colt by More Than Ready and a winner of $34,404 by Scat Daddy; Running Creek, the dam of Grade III winner Easy Time, had a Twirling Candy winner of $57,410 and a Pioneerof the Nile winner of $48,896; and Sheza Smoke Show, the dam of Princess Noor, had a Malibu Moon winner of $28,056, and an unraced Liam's Map.

Not This Time only raced at two, and he made just four starts, winning twice. However, he won the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill by 8 3/4 lengths and next out was a neck second to Classic Empire in the GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita, 7 1/2 lengths ahead of third-place finisher Practical Joke. Classic Empire would go on to win the Arkansas Derby and Practical Joke the GI H. Allen Jerkens S. at Saratoga, so his form was obviously of the highest order and there's no telling what he might have accomplished had injury not ended his career. His half-brother Liam's Map was a multiple Grade I winner.

Not This Time entered stud at three and is an outstanding physical specimen, big and tall, and he made an impression with breeders right away by getting good-looking foals. Buyers responded in the sales ring, paying an average price of $76,833 for the 18 weanlings from his first crop that sold in 2018, with seven making $100,000 or more. From then on, he's been something of a sales sensation across the board vis a vis stud fee. Princess Noor, for example, made $1.35 million as a 2-year-old at OBS April in 2020.
In his case, looks translated to performance.

Black-type percentages

That Not This Time has already sired 18 black-type winners is impressive as it is on face value alone, but it's even more so as a percentage of named foals. These days, with popular stallions routinely covering more than 100 mares each year, a good stallion can be expected to get 5% black-type winners to foals, and for young horses with fewer crops racing, the percentages are even lower.

War Front leads all established Kentucky stallions with a ratio of 11.23%, followed by Tapit at 9.86%, Speightstown 9.77%, Into Mischief 8.56%, Medaglia d'Oro 8.36%, Curlin 8.29%, and Ghostzapper 7.89%.

Not This Time is next on the list behind Ghostzapper at 7.47%, ahead of Munnings at 7.15%, Quality Road 7.13%, Uncle Mo 6.95%, Constitution 6.80%, More Than Ready 6.73%, and Street Sense 6.67%.

You get the picture. Not This Time is right up there in the production of black-type winners with the best in the country, and he's the youngest of this group.

Among his own cohort, he's the leading third-crop sire, ahead of Laoban at 5.71%, Upstart at 4.07%, Hit It a Bomb 3.95%, Nyquist 3.18%, and Runhappy 3.04%.

Not This Time's first crop came to the races in the COVID year of 2020 when racing, as life, was disrupted, but there were clues then–at least by August, when I wrote here “Not This Time Leads Freshman Sires“–that he was going to be more than a flash in the pan. He was getting quality maiden special winners then and performing far above his stud-fee level, and that impression has turned into reality.

A stallion that can move up his mares to graded and listed levels–not to mention Classics contenders–at a $15,000 fee is one that can better withstand the drops in book quality from years two to four, and we're seeing this year that his second crop headed by Epicenter and the others noted is highly effective.

He is the real deal.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Taking Stock: Gun Runner in Heady Company

Two weeks ago, when I wrote the column “First Crops Yield Derby and Oaks Winners,” I'd expected to write about Taiba (Gun Runner) and Secret Oath (Arrogate), the two I'd liked the most in the Gl Kentucky Derby and Gl Kentucky Oaks, respectively. I'd spoken mainly about those two on Steve Byk's popular SiriusXM program “At the Races,” and my feeling was that Gun Runner in particular was on a trajectory to get a first-crop Classic winner. His start at stud had been exceptional with his first juveniles, and the momentum was carrying forward with his 3-year-olds, headed by Taiba, who'd won the Gl Santa Anita Derby in only his second start; Cyberknife, who'd accounted for the Gl Arkansas Derby from a field that included Secret Oath; and Early Voting, who'd lost the Gll Wood Memorial in a photo to Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) in only his third start. Instead, my column was about Rich Strike (Keen Ice) and Secret Oath.

Last week, Byk asked for my opinion on the Gl Preakness. My choices, I told him, were Early Voting (Gun Runner) and Secret Oath. There were plenty of reasons and handicapping angles for which to like Early Voting, entering the Preakness on a similar path traveled by his connections' 2017 Preakness winner Cloud Computing, a first-crop Classic winner for Maclean's Music. But my primary reason for picking Early Voting, like Taiba in the Derby, was all about Gun Runner. “I just think, Steve, that Gun Runner is such a good stallion, and he's going to get a first-crop Classic winner,” I'd said.

Early Voting defeated race favorite Epicenter (Not This Time) to land the Classic, his first top-level win.

After the race, Steve Asmussen, who trains Preakness and Derby runner-up Epicenter and conditioned Gun Runner, told the Pimlico media team: “The silver lining on that is Gun Runner is probably the greatest sire of all time. He's incredible.”

That's hyperbole, of course, but Gun Runner is certainly on a special trajectory, and who knows? Before Early Voting, Gun Runner had already sired four Grade l winners from his first crop, and now he has an astonishing five, with plenty of racing yet to come for his 3-year-olds, who could become even better at four and five, as he did. Gun Runner didn't win his first top-level race until late in his 3-year-old season, and at four he was outstanding, winning four Grade l events. At five, he won the Gl Pegasus World Cup in January before entering stud at Three Chimneys, which campaigned the horse with Winchell Thoroughbreds, the owner of Epicenter.

Could Gun Runner end up with six or seven Grade l winners from his first crop? It's a jaw-dropping possibility, but having five already is heady enough. With the massive books stallions cover these days, it's unfair to compare horses from different eras purely by first-crop Grade I winners, but suffice to say Gun Runner has sired more of them than any other active sire in North America, which includes such outstanding stallions as Into Mischief, Tapit, War Front, Curlin, Uncle Mo, Quality Road, Speightstown, Medaglia d'Oro, and his own sire, Candy Ride (Arg), who got four in his first crop.

In a different era, Gainesway's Blushing Groom (Fr), a foal of 1974, sired five first-crop Grade/Group 1 winners, and in Europe, the iconic Sadler's Wells, a foal of 1981, got six. More recently, Sadler's Wells's son Montjeu (Ire), a foal of 1996, got five Northern Hemisphere-bred Group 1 winners from his first crop, and Frankel (GB), who was born in 2008 and is by Sadler's Wells's greatest sire son, Galileo (Ire), got six. This isn't necessarily a comprehensive list, but it paints the picture of the company that Gun Runner is rubbing shoulders with as his stud career unfolds, and it's safe to say he's sired his first five Grade l winners quicker than any of them. All of these named here with five or more also sired a first-crop Classic winner.

Sire Line
Most stallions tend to have their best results in their first crops. Three Chimneys is certainly aware of this, having stood Slew o' Gold, who got four Grade l winners in his first crop and nothing thereafter approaching that level of success. Exceptional stallions, however, will gut it out with their second, third, and fourth crops and rebound as they get better mares again.

Likewise, exceptional sires will sometimes appear from unlikely branches of major stallions. This was the case with California-bred Tiznow, the broodmare sire of Early Voting. Tiznow was sired by the stakes-placed California stallion Cee's Tizzy, a son of the In Reality horse Relaunch.

More recently, Uncle Mo is such an example. His California-bred sire Indian Charlie was by California-based In Excess (Ire), a son of the Caro (Ire) stallion Siberian Express.

Both Caro and In Reality were outstanding sires who had a number of top sons at stud, but the existence of their lines in North America now runs through obscure branches that resuscitated them after the bigger names failed to carry on the lines. The same paradigm is true for Gun Runner, who traces to Fappiano through the sequence Candy Ride/Ride the Rails/Cryptoclearance/Fappiano.

Fappiano is mainly represented in North America through Unbridled's sire sons Empire Maker and Unbridled's Song, both of whom are now dead. Empire Maker's son Pioneerof the Nile, also dead, is the sire of American Pharoah, while Unbridled's Song's son Arrogate, also dead, is the sire of Secret Oath. Candy Ride, who entered stud for only $10,000, improbably brought his branch of Fappiano to the fore to compete with the established lines of Fappiano, and now his son Gun Runner is blowing it up to a level that may surpass the tail-male influences of Empire Maker and Unbridled's Song. And Gun Runner isn't the only one; Candy Ride is also the sire of the excellent Twirling Candy–responsible for last year's Preakness winner Rombauer– plus a bunch of other young stallions with runners on the way.

Here's something else that makes this story even more interesting: Bred by Haras Abolengo, Candy Ride, who isn't a particularly eye-catching or sizable individual, had several veterinary issues and twice failed examinations before selling to Gumercindo Alonzo for the equivalent of $12,000 as a yearling. Nonetheless, he was an exceptional if brittle racehorse, undefeated in three starts in Argentina and three starts in North America.

At stud, Candy Ride had a great affinity for mares with Storm Cat in their pedigrees, and Gun Runner, who's from a Giant's Causeway mare, is one such example.

This same affinity for Storm Cat is evident in Gun Runner's early success as well. Early Voting's second dam is by Storm Cat, who's also in the pedigrees of two other Grade l winners by the stallion. In fact, five of Gun Runner's Graded winners have Storm Cat in their pedigrees, and altogether six of his 11 black-type winners do.

After Gun Runner was first retired to Three Chimneys, I had the opportunity to inspect him and was struck by how balanced he was, so much so that he didn't appear to the eye to be as tall as the 16.2 hands he is. At the time, he was five and had furnished significantly from his days as a somewhat immature-looking 3-year-old, but nonetheless he carried some refinement to him that seemed as if it would complement more muscular physiques, like the ones provided by Storm Cat. It made sense then, and judging by results, it makes sense now.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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The Week in Review: Is the ‘Fresh Horse’ Angle Getting Stale?

For the second year in a row, the GI Preakness S. was won by a fresh horse who didn't run in the GI Kentucky Derby. Since both of Saturday's top two Preakness finishers–Early Voting (Gun Runner) and Epicenter (Not This Time)–were publicly declared out of the GI Belmont S. even before the last of the crab cakes cooled at Pimlico, it will be up to another relatively rested horse to step up and snag the third jewel of the Triple Crown.

That's not an unfamiliar scenario, and recent history tells us the most likely Belmont win threat could be among the Derby also-rans.
Since 2000, New York's “test of a champion” has been won by 10 horses who ran in Louisville then opted out of Baltimore. During that same time frame, seven horses won the Belmont after not having run in either the Derby or Preakness. We also had two Triple Crown winners (Justify in 2018 and American Pharoah in 2015), and two other horses–Afleet Alex in 2005 and Point Given in 2001–who lost the Derby, won the Preakness, then won the Belmont (the pandemic-altered 2020 Triple Crown scheduling was an anomaly that isn't counted here).

The connections of Rich Strike (Keen Ice) voluntarily held out their Derby winner from the Preakness, citing the desire to have a fresh colt for the Belmont. Yet the 80-1 hero from the first Saturday in May is unlikely to be favored on June 11.

Rich Strike's underdog appeal will undoubtedly attract supporters and a sizable rooting interest. But going from being a blue-collar, no-pressure afterthought who lucked into the Derby off the also-eligible list to being the focal point of microscopic attention in the media capital of the world will be a daunting ask for this overachieving (and sometimes ornery) former $30,000 maiden claimer.

Trainer Todd Pletcher might not have pioneered the now-prevalent “skip the Preakness” methodology. But he's certainly done his part to lend credibility to the “less is more” approach when targeting the Triple Crown's concluding leg.

The Pletcher-conditioned Tapwrit was sixth in the 2018 Derby, passed on the Preakness, then won the Belmont. Similar story for Palace Malice in 2013, except that he was 12th at Churchill. Pletcher's other Belmont winner, the filly Rags to Riches, had the same five-week spacing in 2007, except her circumstances were different, having won the GI Kentucky Oaks prior to taking on males in New York.

Using those templates as a guide, Pletcher is aiming two contenders (at least) toward the Belmont: Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), who got buried with the dreaded rail draw in the Derby, waited too long to uncork a far-turn bid, then displayed sneaky-good acceleration inside the eighth pole to finish fifth, and Nest (Curlin), the filly who won three straight stakes this past winter and spring prior to being the beaten fave (second) in a very competitive renewal of the May 6 Kentucky Oaks.

Barber Road (Race Day), a gritty stayer who was sixth in the Derby, is the only other confirmed Belmont probable among those who ran in the first leg of the Triple Crown. Creative Minster (Creative Cause), a minor-impact third in the Preakness, is also being pointed to the Belmont.

Although that list of Belmont contenders looks light at the moment, it's sure to be shored up over the next 2 1/2 weeks.
Chief among names percolating around the periphery are We the People (Constitution), winner of the May 14 GIII Peter Pan S. with a 103 Beyer Speed Figure.

Two other colts who had formerly been under Derby consideration but instead won confidence-boosters on Saturday could also be in the mix: Ethereal Road (Quality Road), who scored in the Sir Barton S. on the Preakness undercard, plus Howling Time (Not This Time), who captured an allowance/optional claimer at Churchill.

Parsing the outcome of the Preakness need not be a drawn-out affair. Armagnac (Quality Road), an 18-1 outsider, went to the lead. The jockeys aboard two other on-paper speed threats–Fenwick (Curlin) and Simplification (Not This Time)–chose not to force the issue through moderate early fractions. Jose Ortiz, knowing what he had underneath him, willingly conceded the lead with Early Voting and instead sat second, applying quiet but palpable pressure through consecutive quarters in :24.32, :23.12, :24.06 and :24.05 for the first mile of the race.

Meanwhile, at the back of the pack, it was evident by the midway point that the two favorites, Epicenter and the filly Secret Oath (Arrogate), had left themselves too much work to do. While both had endured jostling early in the race, it shouldn't have adversely affected either considering both were in the process of being rated off the pace when the bumping occurred.

Joel Rosario was first to move with a sense of urgency, sending Epicenter up the rail to tag onto the back of the first flight about a half-mile from home. Luis Saez soon mimicked the favorite's “let's hustle” move, expect he stayed widest with Secret Oath. The end result for both was more or less the same: Epicenter had to ride out the run through the far bend while pocketed with nowhere to go, then he had no true spark once he cut the corner and had a clear shot. Secret Oath once again launched into the same loop-the-group maneuver that had come up short in the GI Arkansas Derby, and she similarly petered out in the stretch.

With the favorites foundering behind him, Early Voting simply ratcheted up the torque on Armagnac, going head-and-head for the lead between the seven-sixteenths and quarter poles before cracking that rival for good. He responded to urging like a colt who knows his job, drifted only slightly under left-handed encouragement, then shifted back inward to finish up 1 1/4 comfortable lengths clear of a wheels-spinning Epicenter through a final three-sixteenths in :18.99 and a 1:54.54 clocking for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness (105 Beyer).

The only real surprise was that Early Voting had drifted up to 5.7-1 in the betting. Otherwise, the race unfolded in drama-free fashion. If you didn't know it was the Preakness, it could have been any other race at any level on any given day of the week–an overmatched speed horse gets reeled in by a stalker who gets first run, and no one else is firing through the lane.

In sum, Early Voting's measured, methodical victory was a microcosm of how the 4-for-4 colt got to the Preakness in the first place. His connections–trainer Chad Brown and owner Klaravich Stables–had taken the calculated, patient path in prep races and bypassing the Derby, and it paid off at Pimlico, just as it did five years ago when the same owner/trainer combo won the Preakness with Cloud Computing.

Racing isn't the only sport in which the metrics-driven “waiting game” has cycled into vogue. We see it in major-league baseball, where pitchers are removed from starts solely based on pitch counts, even if a no-hitter or World Series game is on the line. High-value college football recruits now routinely skip important, season-ending bowl games so as not to sully their draft status. And pro basketball teams routinely sit their stars during the regular season with the hope of having fresh bodies for the playoffs, where wins count most.

It's tough to dismiss the current over-reliance on analytics when these formulaic approaches keep producing results. And in racing, you certainly can't argue when owners and trainers opt out of potentially arduous spots citing a desire to “do what's best for the horse.”

But there is a difficult-to-define aesthetic cost to mapping out Triple Crown campaigns so conservatively and meticulously. Having already arrived at the point where getting into the Derby has devolved into a chase for qualifying points, the final two legs of the series are at risk of becoming an exercise of which connections have played the “fresh face” percentages most effectively.

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Early Voting in Good Condition After Preakness Score, Will Skip Belmont

Saturday's GI Preakness S. winner Early Voting (Gun Runner) was back in his stall at Belmont Park by mid-morning Sunday, some 15 hours after scoring a 1 1/4-length victory over favored Epicenter (Not This Time) in Saturday's Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown.

Trainer Chad Brown traveled from Baltimore to New York overnight and was at Belmont Sunday to oversee what is typically a busy morning of timed workouts for horses in his stable. During a brief break, Brown said that Early Voting, owned by Seth Klarman's Klaravich Stables, came out of the race in good condition, but will not be pointed toward the June 11 GI Belmont S. He added that he was undecided where and when Early Voting would run next, while still savoring his trainee's big day at Pimlico.

“We are thrilled with the victory,” Brown said. “I'm proud of the horse. Proud of my team. It was a super memorable day, especially being on Seth Klarman's birthday in his hometown. Everything lined up. I'm just so appreciative for the day, the performance.”
Brown and Klarman won the Preakness for the second time in five years by using the same formula: skipping the GI Kentucky Derby with a promising, stakes-tested but lightly-raced colt to focus on the Preakness. In 2017, Cloud Computing (Maclean's Music) gave Brown his first victory in a Triple Crown series race. Like Cloud Computing, Early Voting was given a break after finishing second in the Apr. 9 GII Wood Memorial S.at Aqueduct.

“He's only run four times and he's done everything we asked him to do,” Brown said. “He breaks good from the gate. He makes his own trips. He carries his speed a route of ground. He's a fighter in the stretch. He deserves all the credit here. He's been extremely cooperative to work with. He's super intelligent. You train him to do something, and he does it. I couldn't be more proud of this horse. He deserves a lot of accolades.”

Ron Winchell, the owner of Epicenter, who ran second in both the Derby and Preakness, reported that the colt is unlikely to contest the Belmont.

“I would say that's a stretch at the moment,” he said. “He had six weeks between the Louisiana Derby and the Derby, and that did him well. I think there might have been five weeks between the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby, and that did him well. Just looking at how he came back fresh, that seems to be the recipe at the moment. But at least a Gun Runner won.”

Winchell speculated that Monmouth's GI TVG.com Haskell or Saratoga's GI Travers S. could be the next target, with the GI Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland in early November a logical objective.

“We'll turn the page and see where we want to go from there,” he said. “But that's probably the long-term goal.”

Scott Blasi, chief assistant trainer to Asmussen, said Sunday morning that Epicenter came out of the Preakness in good order. He said Epicenter and his stablemates at Pimlico would van back to Churchill Downs on Monday morning.

Creative Minister (Creative Cause), who ran third in the Preakness after being supplemented to the race for $150,000, will be pointed toward the Belmont, trainer Kenny McPeek reported Sunday. McPeek said the colt will likely have a couple of half-mile breezes before the third jewel of the Triple Crown, noting that the gray's breeding could make him a contender in the race.

“He's out of a Tapit mare and Tapits love the Belmont,” McPeek said. “That's the plan.”

Creative Minister will stay at Pimlico for a day or two, McPeek said Sunday, before shipping to New York.

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas was en route back home to Kentucky Sunday with Briland Farms' Secret Oath (Arrogate), the Preakness fourth-place finisher. Lukas said the plan was for the filly to get eight weeks off and then target a series of races against her own sex, including the GI Coaching Club American Oaks July 23 and GI Alabama S. Aug. 20, both at Saratoga, as well as the GI Cotillion S. Sept. 24 at Parx Racing. Her ultimate goal is the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland in November.

Daniel Alonso's Skippylongstocking is under consideration for the Belmont, trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. said Sunday morning. The son of 2016 Preakness winner Exaggerator, who finished fifth in the Preakness, had previously finished third in the Wood Memorial.

“He ran good enough and it might be worth taking a shot at it,” Joseph said. “We won't decide for a week. We'll see how he comes out and see how his energy is and then decide. I think he would get a mile and a half.”

Trainer Antonio Sano reported that Tami Bobo and Tristan De Meric's Simplification (Not Thsi Time) will be turned out in Ocala for rest and relaxation after it was determined that the GII Fountain of Youth S. winner and fourth-place Kentucky Derby finisher had experience exercise-induced pulmonary bleeding during his sixth-place finish in the Preakness.

Other probable starters for the Belmont, according to New York Racing Association notes, include Barber Road (Race Day), Golden Glider (Ghostzapper), Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), Rich Strike (Keen Ice) and We the People (Constitution), while also listed as possible are Ethereal Road (Quality Road), Nest (Curlin) and Western River (Tapit).

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