Enforceable | Horse Racing Free Tips

Derby Notes: Enforceable May Be ‘More Forwardly Placed,’ ‘Break Is Everything’ For Storm The Court

Arnaldo Monge and trainer Rey Hernandez's Finnick the Fierce was declared out of Saturday's 146th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (GI) by his co-owners.

With the scratch of Finnick the Fierce, the inside stall and outside three stalls in the 20-horse starting gate will remain open for the field of 16 starters. Program numbers remain unchanged.

With the first good weather morning since Tuesday, all 16 entrants for the Run for the Roses trained over Churchill Downs' fast track Friday morning on the eve of the 146th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (GI).

Among the horses galloping during the 5:15-5:30 (all times Eastern) training window reserved for Derby and Oaks entrants were morning line Derby favorite Tiz the Law and second choice Honor A. P. who were two of the first horses on the track.

ATTACHMENT RATE – Jim Bakke and Gerald Isbister's Attachment Rate had his final morning of training before Saturday's Kentucky Derby.

Trainer Dale Romans reported everything is ready to go for the Ellis Park Derby runner-up.

AUTHENTIC/THOUSAND WORDS – With trainer Bob Baffert looking on, stablemates Authentic and Thousand Words each put in maintenance gallops Friday morning under perfect weather conditions at Churchill Downs.

Friday's clear skies were welcome after rain had soaked the Louisville area the previous two mornings. Derby and Oaks contenders were given a special training slot from 5:15-5:30 Friday and, after Oaks favorite Gamine stretched her legs with a race-day gallop, Authentic came on the scene under Humberto Gomez for a couple of laps around beneath the Twin Spires.

Thousand Words then emerged just after the special training period concluded and also galloped under Gomez.

Both colts are aiming to give Baffert what would be a record-tying sixth Kentucky Derby victory Saturday. Authentic has won four of five starts and bested Ny Traffic last time out in the Haskell Stakes (GI) on July 18.

“In the Haskell it looked like it he was going to be coming up short but a lot of it was he just shut it down early,” Baffert said. “But he's training really well, he's coming up to the race in great shape. He's the kind of horse where he looks around like in the stretch, I told (jockey) Johnny (Velazquez) if we're lucky and we turn for home and he's right there you have to keep him busy because he does check things out.”

Thousand Words, who is owned by Albaugh Family Stables and Spendthrift Farm, has been training forwardly since defeating Honor A. P. in the Shared Belief Stakes on Aug. 1.

“He's a horse who can be a little bit tough mentally. But all of the sudden he started doing really well,” Baffert said of the son of Pioneerof the Nile. “He's a horse where he's getting closer, his numbers are getting tougher and tougher. But everything has to go right for him. He's that kind of horse.”

ENFORCEABLE – Having arrived from Florida Thursday afternoon, Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse was on hand at Churchill Downs Friday morning to see for himself the form John Oxley's Enforceable is bringing into his Kentucky Derby run.

With assistant trainer David Carroll in the irons, Enforceable again looked like a horse wanting to do more as he galloped during the 5:15-5:30 a.m. exclusive training period for Oaks and Derby contenders. The son of Tapit — who is a full brother to graded stakes winner Mohaymen — has been eager in his morning outings all week and could end up closer to the pace Saturday than is typical for his late-running self.

“I was saying to David that I think he may be a little more forwardly placed than usual,” Casse said. “He's really on his game. In the Blue Grass Stakes (in which he finished fourth) he broke much better than he had been breaking and going 1 ¼ miles, I don't know that the pace is going to be crazy. So we're not going to take him back. We're going to let (jockey) Adam (Beschizza) place him wherever he feels comfortable but I'm going to think he'll be more forwardly placed.”

FINNICK THE FIERCE — Arnaldo Monge and trainer Rey Hernandez's Finnick the Fierce was declared out of Saturday's 146th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (GI).

“Because he's blind on the right eye, he carries himself a little funny,” Monge said. “And we always knew that. But ever since he arrived, the vets have been keeping an eye on the horse and I'm telling Rey 'well, they're concerned about this' and there might be a legitimate reason but a regular vet doesn't seem to think so. So we're always trying to do the best for the horse so we made the decision (to scratch) because we don't want to go tomorrow and we're all excited and then he gets scratched at the post. So we always said this is a horse for the long term. It was an honor to be selected (for the Derby) but at the end of the day the most important thing is the horse. Maybe we are missing something I don't know, but I think the plan is to do more diagnostics on him and if everything is OK we'll run another day. What can we do, that's life.

“I didn't notice anything but it was always the right front. That's the same side as his eye and it's always been that way. Rey rides the horse and said 'this horse is fine' and that he didn't feel anything. I don't know. I know horse racing is under scrutiny all the time so I understand not trying to risk that publicity.

“We'll have to see what comes out of this next diagnostic test. Just to be on the up and up, we'll probably send him to Rood and Riddle and get an independent opinion on the horse. If all is good, (the Preakness) could be a consideration. Maybe the Breeders' Cup. Rey wanted to turn him out after the Derby anyway but it will depend on how this comes out. It's a bummer but we'll be back.”

The Dialed In gelding, who was seventh in the Blue Grass Stakes (GII) in his most recent start, had jogged, then galloped Friday morning with Hernandez aboard.

HONOR A. P. – C R K Stable's Honor A. P. was the first Kentucky Derby contender to set foot on the track Friday morning at 5:15 and galloped 1 5/8 miles with Javier Hernandez aboard and trainer John Shirreffs keeping close watch.

After watching the gallop Shirreffs was all smiles, but modest when complimented about how good his Santa Anita Derby winner looked.

“When you get to this level, they all look good,” said Shirreffs, who is seeking his second Kentucky Derby victory after pulling the upset with Giacomo in 2005.

MAJOR FED – Lloyd Madison Farm's Major Fed had his final morning of Derby training Friday with an easy one-mile jog and 1 5/8-mile gallop.

With exercise rider Margarito Fierro in the saddle alongside of Brian Theall aboard stable pony Alejandro, Major Fed will attempt to put his starting gate woes behind him in the Derby.

“We've gotten pretty unlucky at the start,” trainer Greg Foley said. “We schooled him a couple of times this week at the new gate and in the morning in the paddock. We just need things to go our way for once at the start.”

MAX PLAYER – George Hall and SportBLX Thoroughbred Corp.'s Max Player, had a strong 1 ½-mile gallop over a fast track at 5:15 a.m. under regular exercise rider Juan Vargas.

MONEY MOVES – Outfitted with his Kentucky Derby saddle towel, Money Moves galloped during the special 5:15 a.m. training period for Oaks and Derby contenders as trainer D. Wayne Lukas — who is overseeing the colt's conditioning on behalf of his protégé Todd Pletcher — kept watch astride his saddle horse.

MR. BIG NEWS – Allied Racing's Mr. Big News galloped 1 ½ miles Friday morning at 5:30 for trainer Bret Calhoun.

NECKER ISLAND – One of the last Derby horses to train Friday morning, Necker Island jogged once around under Hillary Hartman and then stood in the Kentucky Derby starting gate located in the mile chute.

Among those looking on with trainer Chris Hartman was Wayne Scheer from South Dakota, who owns Necker Island in partnership with Raymond Daniels and Will Harbut Racing.

NY TRAFFIC – John Fanelli, Cash is King, Paul Braverman and Team Hanley's Ny Traffic made the good impression as he came out at 5:15 a.m. and galloped 1 ½ miles around the Churchill track.

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. participated in some the top 3-year-old races last year with Math Wizard, who hit the board in both the Ohio Derby (GIII) and Indiana Derby (GIII) before a breakout win in the Pennsylvania Derby (GI), but Ny Traffic is the first Classic starter for the 33-year-old trainer, a native of Barbados who has been training in the U.S. since 2011.

“The Derby means everything to me,” Joseph said. “That's why we came here. We hoped to one day win the Kentucky Derby and now to be in the position where we have a chance, we are very fortunate and blessed. We are just trying to take it all in.”

SOLE VOLANTE — After jogging Monday through Thursday, Reeves Thoroughbreds and Andie Biancone's Sole Volante was reunited with jockey Luca Panici for a strong 1 ½-mile gallop during the special 5:15 a.m. training time restricted to Oaks and Derby horses.

SOUTH BEND – It was another smooth morning for Bill Mott trainee South Bend as he galloped during the special 5:15 a.m. training session. Assistant trainer Kenny McCarthy continues to be pleased with what he is seeing from the son of Algorithms, who is attempting to make Mott the first trainer since Bob Baffert in 1997-98 to win the Kentucky Derby in consecutive years.

STORM THE COURT – Breeders' Cup Juvenile (GI) winner Storm the Court jogged a quarter-mile and then galloped a mile under Thomas Dubaele at 7:30 Friday morning.

Trainer Peter Eurton said Storm the Court would not go to the track Saturday morning in advance of his Derby run.

Owned by the partnership of Exline-Border Racing, David Bernsen, Susanna Wilson and Dan Hudock, Storm the Court will be ridden for the first time Saturday by Julien Leparoux.

Eurton, who is saddling his second Derby starter, was asked about the ideal scenario for Storm the Court to notch his first victory of 2020 Saturday.

“The others break a step slow and we break fast and they have to catch us,” Eurton said with a laugh. “The break is everything. If the pace is fast, we will be four to six lengths off it but if it is not a fast pace, we will be up on it.”

TIZ THE LAW –Sackatoga Stable's prohibitive 3-5 morning line favorite Tiz the Law had a strong 1 ½- mile gallop at 5:15 a.m. with regular rider Heather Smullen aboard in his final day of serious training before Saturday's Kentucky Derby. Trainer Barclay Tagg said the Belmont (G1) and Travers (G1) Stakes winner would go out for a one-mile jog Saturday morning.

“He had a very nice gallop,” Tagg said. “Right speed. Everything was comfortable. He pulled up nicely and came back nicely. We're all good. He'll jog once around tomorrow.”

The Constitution colt has won six of seven starts laying close to the pace and making one run at the top of the stretch. His trainer is hoping for a similar trip in the Derby.

“I'd like for us to be laying third all the way around until we get down for business,” Tagg said. “I'm very confident in our horse. He's a very nice colt. I hope he wins it. He's a good horse, good horses do good things.”

Next to Tagg and his partner/assistant Robin Smullen, the person who knows Tiz the Law the best is Heather Smullen, niece of Robin.

“He's good,” Heather Smullen said. “He does everything you ask him to do. He's very happy with himself and moved well over the track this morning (Friday).”

WINNING IMPRESSION – West Point Thoroughbreds and Pearl Racing's Winning Impression jogged a mile with exercise rider Emerson Chavez up for trainer Dallas Stewart.

The post Derby Notes: Enforceable May Be ‘More Forwardly Placed,’ ‘Break Is Everything’ For Storm The Court appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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TVG Handicappers Weigh In With Top Three Kentucky Derby Picks

TVG, America's horse racing network and leading ADW provider, will be offering special promotions and featuring expert selections from their team of analysts in advance of Saturday's 146^th running of the Kentucky Derby. Additionally, the award-winning network will be live on site at Del Mar for the long holiday weekend for four graded stakes races including the Del Mar Debutante (GI) and Runhappy Del Mar Futurity (GI).

Throughout the week, TVG will be airing analysis and features on the Kentucky Derby contenders including a special Kentucky Derby Profile Show which can be viewed here. Select races from Churchill Downs will be available on TVG2.

TVG Expert	1st	2nd	3rd
Simon Bray	#17 Tiz the Law	#6 King Guillermo	#15 Ny Traffic
Matt Carothers	#17 Tiz the Law	#7 Money Moves	#16 Honor A. P.
Todd Schrupp	#17 Tiz the Law	#16 Honor A.P.	#13 Attachment Rate
Ken Rudulph	#3 Enforceable	#16 Honor A.P.	#11 Necker Island
Christina Blacker	#16 Honor A.P.	#17 Tiz The Law	#13 Attachment Rate
Mike Joyce	#17 Tiz The Law	#7 Money Moves	#16 Honor A.P.

TVG will be offering a Money Back Special promotion throughout the week and will be giving money back for 2^nd and 3^rd-place finishes on win bets on multiple races each day.

New customers can take advantage of a $200 Risk Free Bet on their first win wager. For further details, go to https://www.tvg.com/promos.

TVG's Todd Schrupp, Mike Joyce, Christina Blacker and Joaquin Jamie will be reporting live from Del Mar with Simon Bray contributing to the broadcast remotely. The coverage will include exclusive interviews and analysis as Del Mar concludes its summer meet on Labor Day. There are four graded stakes scheduled including the Del Mar Debutante (GI) and Runhappy Del Mar Futurity (GI), two premier races for juveniles.

Labor Day will also mark opening day of the popular Runhappy Meet at Kentucky Downs. Caton Bredar will be live trackside on Monday. The track's boutique six-day turf meet offers $2 million per day in purses and will host the Runhappy Turf Sprint (GIII) which is part of the Breeders' Cup “Win and You're In” Challenge Series and earns the winner a spot in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (GI) on November 7 at Keeneland.

Fans of international racing can tune in to TVG on Saturday morning as international superstar Enable (GB) competes in the September Stakes (GIII) at Kempton in preparation for her fourth appearance in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (GI) in October. She won the Arc in 2017 and 2018 and was second last year. TVG's international expert Scott Hazelton will be covering the race from Los Angeles. Post time for the September Stakes is approximately 9:35 a.m. ET/6:35 a.m. PT.

In addition to Del Mar and Kentucky Downs, TVG will also be broadcasting racing from Gulfstream Park, Monmouth Park, Golden Gate and more all weekend.

The post TVG Handicappers Weigh In With Top Three Kentucky Derby Picks appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Kentucky Derby Pedigree Corner: Max Player, Enforceable, Major Fed, And Mr. Big News

Each day of Kentucky Derby week, we'll take a look at the pedigrees of some Derby contenders and how those pedigrees might factor into their ability to succeed at 1 1/4 miles.

Max Player
Honor Code x Fools In Love, by Not For Love
Honor Code has strong credentials around two turns, winning the 1 1/8-mile Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at age two, then earning champion older male honors at age four with a campaign including a score in the G1 Whitney Stakes, also at 1 1/2 miles. Honor Code's championship season also included wins at 1 mile in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap and G1 Gulfstream Park Handicap. He is a son of A.P. Indy, who is one of the modern breed's bedrocks for distance runners.

Honor Code's runners post an average winning distance of 7.29 furlongs, which is a strong number for a sire with his first crop of 3-year-olds. He'll have two colts pointing toward this year's Kentucky Derby, with Honor A. P. having won the G1 Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles and Max Player winning the G3 Withers Stakes at the same distance. Max Player is also placed at the Derby distance, having run third in the G1 Travers Stakes in August.

Fools in Love was a stakes-level horse on the East Coast for most of her racing career, but her lone win in stakes competition came in the 7 furlong Orleans Stakes at Delta Downs. A versatile runner, Fools in Love won at distances ranging from 5 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.

Her resume continued to be strong when she transitioned from the racetrack to the foaling barn, consistently producing black type runners. She is the dam of the Scat Daddy colt Seahenge, a British Group 2 winner at 7 furlongs who now stands at stud in France and Argentina.

Other runners of note out of Fools in Love include Urban Bourbon, a City Zip gelding who is Grade 3-placed at 7 1/2 furlongs over the turf and was a multiple winner at 1 1/16 miles on the same surface. Frank's Folly, by Mineshaft, is stakes-placed and a multiple winner at 1 1/16 miles, while the Exchange Rate gelding Exchequer was a multi-surface claiming winner beyond a mile.

Enforceable
Tapit x Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union
Tapit won the G3 Laurel Futurity as a juvenile going 1 1/16 miles, then came back at three to take the G1 Wood Memorial Stakes at 1 1/8 miles before running in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.

After he retired to stud, Tapit ascended to become perennial leader on the North American sire lists, both in on-track earnings and auction returns. He has sired three Belmont Stakes winners – Tonalist, Creator, and Tapwrit – while classic-placed Frosted became a prominent figure in the handicap division. His average progeny winning distance of 7.65 furlongs is among the leaders for this year's class of Derby sires.

Justwhistledixie has been a versatile star, both on the racetrack and in her broodmare career. She won the G2 Bonnie Miss Stakes over 1 1/8 miles on the main track at Gulfstream Park, preceded by a one-mile score in the G2 Davona Dale Stakes at the same track. She was also a non-graded stakes winner at 6 and 7 furlongs.

Enforceable would be Justwhistledixie's second Derby starter, following in the footsteps of his full-brother Mohaymen. After bringing $2.2 million as a yearling, Mohaymen won his first five starts: a 6 furlong maiden special weight at Belmont Park; the G2 Nashua Stakes (one mile); the G2 Remsen Stakes (1 1/8 miles); the G2 Holy Bull Stakes (1 1/16 miles); and the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes (1 1/16 miles). He went on to finish fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and now stands at Shadwell Farm in Kentucky.

The Tapit/Justwhistledixie cross has also produced Kingly, who won the G3 La Jolla Handicap over 1 1/16 miles on the turf, and the non-graded California Derby at the same distance over the synthetic Tapeta Footings surface of Golden Gate Fields.

However, the biggest winner to date out of Justwhistledixie is New Year's Day, a son of Street Cry who took the 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles and went on to sire champion 3-year-old Maximum Security.

Major Fed
Ghostzapper x Bobby's Babe, by Smart Strike
Ghostzapper was a force of nature on the racetrack, earning a diverse catalog of wins at the highest level, from the G1 Vosburgh Stakes at 6 ½ furlongs to the 1 1/4-mile Breeders' Cup Classic. Between those two extremes, he won at 1 1/16 miles in the G1 Woodward Stakes and G3 Philip H. Iselin Breeders' Cup Handicap, at 1 mile in the Metropolitan Handicap, and at 7 furlongs in the G2 Tom Fool Handicap.

He's proven able to get high-caliber runners at either the sprint or route distance at stud, with his two-turn stars including Shaman Ghost, who is a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/4 miles, and Moreno, who won the G1 Whitney Handicap at 1 1/8 miles and ran second in the G1 Travers Stakes at the classic distance. On the shorter side of the equation, he has sired champion female sprinter Judy the Beauty; Paulassilverlining, who was a finalist in the same category. Guarana, a finalist for champion 3-year-old filly last year, is a Grade 1 winner at both 1 1/8 miles and 7 furlongs, with another one in between at a mile.

Ghostzapper's Kentucky Derby runners include Stately Victor, who won the G1 Blue Grass Stakes at 1 1/8 miles before running eighth in the 2010 Derby; and McCraken, who also ran eighth in 2017 and was a three-time graded stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles.

Bobby's Babe broke her maiden on debut at age three, going 6 furlongs over the Polytrack at Turfway Park. She never won again in her 11 career starts, but she finished second by a nose in a one-mile turf race at Kentucky Downs.

She has four earners of six figures under her produce record, led by May Lily, a turf sprint specialist by Broken Vow who won the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Sprint Stakes at 5 ½ furlongs. Zapperini, a full-brother to Major Fed, took it in the opposite direction, finishing second in last year's G3 John B. Connally Turf Cup Stakes going 1 1/2 miles. Clairenation, by Bernstein, went on a four-race winning streak of turf sprints between five and 5 1/2 furlongs.

Mr. Big News
Giant's Causeway x Unappeased, by Galileo
Giant's Causeway was one of the greatest runners of his generation on a global scale, earning Europe's Horse of the Year honors in 2000.

He was a Group 1 turf winner at distances ranging from 7 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles, racking up victories in the French G1 Prix de la Salamandre at seven panels, the English G1 St. James's Palace Stakes and Sussex Stakes at 1 mile, and the G1 Coral-Eclipse Stakes and Irish Champion Stakes at 1 1/4 miles. Giant's Causeway stretched out even further to win the G1 Juddmonte International Stakes at 10 furlongs and 56 yards.

In his final start, Giant's Causeway showed elite class and distance ability on the dirt, finishing second by a neck to Tiznow in the 1 1/4-mile Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs.

Giant's Causeway was North America's leading sire in 2009, 2011, and 2012, with a broad cross-section of successful runners across distance, surface, and international borders. One of the few boxes left to check on his stallion resume is siring a U.S. classic winner, but he's gotten classic winners elsewhere with Footstepsinthesand in the English 2,000 Guineas, Shamardal in the French 2,000 Guineas, and Mike Fox Canada's Queen's Plate.

Giant's Causeway has sent eight runners to post in the Kentucky Derby, with his best finish being a fifth by Creative Cause in 2012. Other Giant's Causeway runners to start in the Derby include Destin (6th, 2016); Brody's Cause (7th, 2016); Carpe Diem (10th, 2015); Santiva (6th, 2011); Hold Me Back (12th, 2009); Cowboy Cal (9th, 2008); and Noble Causeway (14th, 2005).

Unappeased, by another all-world sire in Galileo, went winless in six career starts Japan. Her best performance was a runner-up effort going about 7 furlongs over a sloppy main track.

The mare comes from a strong extended family that includes Canadian Horse of the Year Glorious Song, U.S. champion juvenile Devil's Bag, and top global runner Sligo Bay.

Unappeased is the dam of two other runners including Lalibela, a full-sister to Mr. Big News who won on debut in a Gulfstream Park maiden special weight, going a mile and an eighth on the turf. Untouch, by Speightstown, raced just once, finishing out of the money in a Belmont Park maiden special weight at 1 1/16 miles on the grass.

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The TDN Derby Rankings for September 2

Here are the final TDN GI Kentucky Derby rankings after an entertaining, intriguing, and unusually long buildup to the first Saturday in September. The field is listed in “likeliest winner” order.

The Top 10…

1) TIZ THE LAW (c, Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow)
O-Sackatoga Stable. B-Twin Creeks Farm (NY). T-Barclay Tagg. Sales History: $110,000 yrl ’18 FTNAUG. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 7-6-0-1, $2,015,300.
Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20, 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 28, 1st GI Champagne S., 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 1, 3rd GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 30. Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 372.

Tiz the Law is a Kentucky Derby standout no matter how you parse his credentials. He’s 6-for-7 lifetime and undefeated in four starts at age three. He’s thrice run Beyer Speed Figures at or above the elite-level 100 mark. He’s already won at the Derby distance of 10 furlongs and that victory was a resounding trouncing of the GI Runhappy Travers S. field at Saratoga. Most importantly, his progression into a mature, confident, aggressor who carries himself with swagger is evident in the visually impressive nature of his races. This $110,000 SARAUG Constitution colt makes his own breaks and controls the tempo of his races from an imposing stalking position, and he’s never been in a serious stretch fight beyond the eighth pole while pasting the competition by open lengths (never fewer than three). Detractors will point to the fact that his only career loss came over the Churchill Downs surface, but that argument is a reach. Tiz created his own trouble in that third-place try in a sea of slop last November in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., and he’s long since advanced in his development into a colt who relishes throttling his competition. Post 17 shouldn’t be a problem. Tiz is an alert breaker who knows how to seize prime early positioning and he’ll have a long run through the home straight to settle just behind the anticipated speed. The only reason not to bet on him will be the prohibitive price. Tiz the Law has had an amazingly long run of luck, maintaining his form for well over a year for an old-school trainer and ownership group that underscores fun and doing right by their horses, so he’s an easy favorite to root for.

2) HONOR A.P. (r, Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
O-C R K Stable LLC. B-George Krikorian (KY). T-John Shirreffs. Sales History: $850,000 yrl ’18 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-2-3-0, $382,200.
Last Start: 2nd Shared Belief S., DMR, Aug. 1
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby June 6, 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 7
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 140.

This $850,000 FTSAUG Honor Code ridgling figures to be a far better contender in the Derby than he appeared in his not-fully-cranked second at 1-5 odds when shortening up to 1 1/16 miles in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar. He has a long stride, a keen mind and an unruffled demeanor, and the projected (more up-tempo) pace dynamic of the Derby figures to suit both his pedigree and target-oriented running style. For a launching-off point for what Honor A.P. might be capable of on Saturday, reference his 102-Beyer GI Santa Anita Derby score on June 6, in which he methodically wore down the pacemakers and fluidly covered ground like he wanted more of it. Honor A.P. does take a while to torque up to his main attacking gear, but he’s also been described by trainer John Shirreffs as being light on his feet, which is an attribute that is usually a necessity in any 18-horse scrum.

3) KING GUILLERMO (c, Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band)
O-Victoria’s Ranch. B-Carhue Investments, Grouseridge Ltd. & Marengo Investments (KY). T-Juan Avila. Sales History: $90,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $150,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-1-1, $340,350.
Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby, OP, May 2
Accomplishments Include: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, 3rd Pulpit S., GP, Nov. 30
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 90.

King Guillermo’s 127-day layoff quest to win the Derby doesn’t strike me as outlandish as it might seem to some traditionalists. This colt was intentionally kept out of hard training in the early part of summer after running back-to-back impressive races when winning the GII Tampa Bay Derby and grinding out a gutsy second in the faster division of the split GI Arkansas Derby. Having plenty of down time was always the prescribed plan for this Uncle Mo bay ($90,000 RNA KEESEP, $150,000 OBSAPR), who runs best when fresh. The filly Regret won the 1915 Derby off a 259-day break, and Sir Barton won the 1919 Derby off a 238-day rest. Since 1929, the longest winning layoff has been 42 days, equaled by Needles in 1956 and Animal Kingdom in 2011. What is a little concerning is that trainer Juan Carlos Avila has been nursing a tepid 1-for-25 record over the past two months. And jockey Samy Camacho is booked on no other Derby day mounts at Churchill, which means that the rookie Derby rider will be sitting in the jocks’ room for hours before his big-race debut without the benefit of being able to ride over the track and (more importantly) focus on another race as a distraction from the pressure. Still, having said all of that, King Guillermo’s 20-1 morning line represents considerable value if you can actually snag that price.

4) THOUSAND WORDS (c, Pioneerof the Nile—Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy) O-Albaugh Family Stables & Spendthrift Farm. B-Hardacre Farm (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 7-4-1-0, $327,000.
Last Start: 1st Shared Belief S., DMR, Aug. 1
Accomplishments Include: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 7, 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Feb. 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 83.

In a Derby prep season extended to 10 months because of the COVID-19 pandemic, Thousand Words is the epitome of a comebacking contender. He was the No.1 Derby prospect on this list from December through early March, then slid off the grid for three starts between March and July (in two of those races he just looked uninterested, and in the sloppy Oaklawn S. he clearly didn’t like taking wet kickback). But this million-dollar KEESEP colt’s 104-Beyer tally in the Shared Belief S. over Honor A.P. stamped him as a resurgent player for a trainer known to produce Derby winners (even when they’re not favorites). Thousand Words doesn’t resonate as a “Wow!” horse, but one talent that is decidedly in his favor is his oft-demonstrated ability to fight through tenacious early pace battles while still being able to repulse serious stretch challenges. Not too many horses in this year’s Derby field have demonstrated that skill, and it will suit this Pioneerof the Nile colt well if he can handle the stretch to 10 furlongs.

5) ENFORCEABLE (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
O-John Oxley. B-Clearsky Farm (KY). T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $775,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP,
10-2-2-2, $367,150.
Last Start: 4th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 18; 3rd GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, Oct. 5, 2nd GII Risen Star S. Div. 1, FG, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 43.

Enforceable is the long-shot play of the Derby, and a must inclusion for all exotics. Admittedly, it’s tough to make a case for him based on results on paper alone. This $775,000 KEESEP RNA was fifth in the GII Louisiana Derby, then ran fourth in the July 11 GII Toyota Blue Grass S., his lone summer prep for Louisville. But he was wide on both turns in the Blue Grass behind dominant one-two finishers who both came back to win stakes in impressive fashion, and this Mark Casse trainee has now had six weeks of conditioning over the Churchill surface. Knowing that he’s coming in fresh with run-all-day bloodlines (by Tapit out of a Dixie Union mare), dismiss Enforceable at your own peril. He is going to fly under the radar betting wise, and he is highly likely to be flying by some of the more stamina-challenged pacemakers late in the lane on Saturday.

6) AUTHENTIC (c, Into Mischief–Flawless, by Mr. Greeley)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Fred Hertrich III, John D. Fielding & Golconda Stables. B-Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $350,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-1-0, $1,011,200.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG.com Haskell Invitational S., MTH, July 18.
Accomplishments Include: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 7; 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 4, 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, June 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 200.

Considering that more preps were added to the calendar to qualify for the Derby, it’s a bit odd that only three entrants in this 18-horse field–Tiz the Law, Thousand Words and Authentic–are sporting victories in their last races. This $350,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay has high-level pace-pressing ability, and his outermost gate draw makes it a near-cinch that he’ll be sent for speed to attain prominent positioning. But it’s not guaranteed that Authentic is going to abide by the strategic wishes of new jockey John Velazquez and trainer Bob Baffert. He’s had adverse issues leaving the starting stalls in three of his five races and his stretch antics by now are well-documented, underscored by his caving-then-saving final eighth in the GI TVG.com Haskell S. in which Authentic nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by losing focus. Ability beyond nine furlongs remains an open question (because having multiple Grade II-winning sprinter Mr. Greeley as his dam-sire does give Authentic’s pedigree a short-distance slant). But it’s also not difficult to envision a scenario in which the Churchill strip comes up speed-favoring and Authentic gets bold on a loose lead.

7) SOLE VOLANTE (g, Karakontie {Jpn}—Light Blow, by Kingmambo)
O-Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone & Limelight Stables Corp. B-Flaxman Holdings Limited (KY). T-Patrick Biancone. Sales History: $6,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $20,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-4-1-1, $323,310.
Last Start: 6th GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 8, 1st Pulpit S., GP, Nov. 30, 2nd GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 7.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

Sole Volante has more upside than people might perceive coming into the Derby. This $6,000 KEESEP and $20,000 OBSAPR Karakontie pinhook will be firing fresh (78-day respite) after reportedly not liking the track in the Belmont S., and trainer Patrick Biancone backed this gelding off from deep-summer preps to instead leg up with a series of turf works at Palm Meadows in Florida. Sole Volante has already run four 92-plus Beyers on dirt, and it’s crucial to point out that he earned those numbers over two tracks–Gulfstream and Tampa–that are historically not conducive to off-the-tailgate running styles like his. This is a light-bodied stayer who could be in the hunt well into the final furlong of the Derby. Sole Volante’s dam only won once, but it was over 14 furlongs in England.

8) NECKER ISLAND (c, Hard Spun—Jenny’s Rocket, by Mr. Greeley) O-Raymond Daniels, Wayne Scherr & Will Harbut Racing LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Chris Hartman. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 10-2-0-3, $199,730.
Last Start: 3rd Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, ELP, Aug. 1.
Accomplishments include: 3rd GIII Indiana Derby, IND, July 8.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

Necker Island, a $100,000 claim three starts back, owns Churchill wins over both a fast and a sloppy surface, but those two victories were last autumn at the start of his career when one-turn miles and seven-furlong sprints seemed to be his sweet spot. Although this Hard Spun colt hasn’t been able to break past the 86-87 Beyer plateau his last four starts, he was facing some talented winners in Art Collector (Bernardini) and Maxfield (Street Sense). Necker Island’s third in the GIII Indiana Derby is actually quite a bit more impressive than it appears on paper: he stumbled at the break, got hooked wide on both turns, then got first run at the pacemaker before hanging in admirably behind a winner who shaved 0.17 seconds off the nine-furlong track record.

9) NY TRAFFIC (c, Cross Traffic–Mamie Reilly, by Graeme Hall)
O-John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing & Paul Braverman. B-Brian Culnan (NY). T-Saffie Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $27,000 RNA 2yo ’19 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 9-2-3-2, $565,470.
Last Start: 2nd GI TVG.com Haskell Invitational S., MTH, July 18
Accomplishments Include: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 21, 2nd GIII Matt Winn S., CD, May 23, 3rd GII Risen Star S. Div. 2, FG, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110.

In four graded stakes preps this season, the 2-for-9 Ny Traffic has run three seconds and a third, and he hasn’t been beaten by more than 1 1/2 lengths in any of those efforts. But this $27,000 EASMAY Cross Traffic gray hasn’t won a stakes yet, and his only two lifetime wins were a Parx MSW and a Gulfstream allowance/optional claimer. Yet he has a hard-trying, overachieving way of going, and he was barely nosed out of a Haskell S. upset by 3-5 fave Authentic. This colt has experience at nine furlongs (twice) and 1 3/16 miles, and generally outruns his odds. Is he the “sleeper” New York-bred in the Derby with fellow Empire Stater Tiz the Law drawing all the attention and betting action?

10) MAX PLAYER (c, Honor Code—Fools in Love, by Not For Love)
O-George E. Hall & SportBLX Thoroughbreds Corp. B-K&G Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $150,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 5-2-1-2, $373,500.
Last Start: 3rd GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 1, 3rd GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

This first-crop Honor Code colt ($150,000 KEESEP RNA) was a commendable third in both the Belmont S. and the Travers S., but he wasn’t in the same league as dominant winner Tiz the Law in either contest. We still haven’t seen a big breakout race from this slow-but-steady learner, and his connections have gambled on a trainer change for the Derby. Steve Asmussen took over from Linda Rice after the Travers, and while that’s probably too short a time window for a new conditioning regimen to produce immediate results, Max might awaken under the aggressive handling of new jockey Ricardo Santana Jr., who rides quite a bit more assertively than the strong-finishing, but more patient Joel Rosario.

The Rest of the Field…

11) SOUTH BEND (c, Algorithms—Sandra’s Rose, by Old Trieste) O-Gary Barber, Wachtel Stable, Peter Deutsch & Pantofel Stable LLC; B-Highclere Inc (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales History: $47,000 RNA Ylg ’18 FTKJUL; $70,000 2yo ’19 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: SW & MGSP, 12-3-2-2, $390,114.
Last Start: 4th GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8
Equineline PPs.

Trainer Bill Mott saddled 65-1 Country House (Lookin At Luck) in the Derby last year and ended up getting moved up from second to win via DQ. This year his trainee South Bend figures to be in the same stratospheric odds range. This $70,000 OBSMAR Algorithms bay (RNA’d for $47,000 at FKTJUL) began his career a perfect three-for-three but hasn’t won since. At 12 starts, he’s the most experienced starter in this year’s edition. He rated from last to get fourth in the Travers S. (first start under Mott’s care), so he already has 10-furlong experience. And at age two, he ran a crackerjack race over the Churchill surface, winning the one-turn-mile Street Sense S. while only a hundredth of a second off the stakes record. Not an overt win threat, but definitely fodder for exotics.

12) MR. BIG NEWS (c, Giant’s Causeway—Unappeased {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire}) O-Allied Racing Stable LLC; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bret Calhoun. Sales History: $95,000 Ylg ’18 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: SW, 7-2-1-0, $168,553
Last Start: 6th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Equineline PPs.

With a distance-centric pedigree (by Giant’s Causeway out of a Galileo mare), you can see why 10 furlongs could very well be within the wheelhouse for Mr. Big News. The exclamation point in his past performance block is the 46-1 half-length splashdown win he earned when relishing a sealed/sloppy Hot Springs track in the Apr. 11 Oaklawn S. But Mr. Big News was drifting out in that victory, and only one of the dozen horses he bested that day (Thousand Words) has proven to be of Kentucky Derby caliber. Although his career-top Beyer of 88 will not be good enough to win the Derby, it’s worth noting that this colt has never regressed in terms of speed numbers, earning Beyers that have moved upward for each of his seven lifetime tries.

13) MONEY MOVES (c, Candy Ride {Arg}—Citizen Advocate, by Proud Citizen) O-Robert V LaPenta & Bortolazzo Stable; B-Whitehall Lane Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $975,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $67,400.
Last Start: 2nd Allowance, SAR, July 25
Equineline PPs.

This $975,000 OBSAPR Candy Ride (Arg) colt is light on experience (just three races), but high on potential based on a pair of one-turn Gulfstream wins to kick off his career and an eye-catching 98-Beyer second at Saratoga over nine furlongs. He’s run well as a pace-pressing threat and has overcome two stutter-step starts leaving the gate, but being in the hunt over 10 furlongs in just his second start back since March is still a major ask at this point in his career. But history could be on his side: dam-sire Proud Citizen was also a late consideration for the 2002 Derby, yet he ran a better-than-expected second at 23-1 odds.

14) ATTACHMENT RATE (c, Hard Spun—Aristra, by Afleet Alex) O-Jim Bakke & Gerald Isbister; B-Mr & Mrs C Oliver Iselin (VA); T-Dale Romans. Sales History: $100,000 Wlg ’17 KEENOV; $200,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 8-1-3-1, $143,732.
Last Start: 2nd Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, ELP, Aug. 9
Equineline PPs.

As a May 18 foal, Attachment Rate has no doubt benefitted from the September rescheduling of the Derby. But with only a maiden win to his credit, this Virginia-bred Hard Spun colt ($100,000 KEENOV; $200,000 KEESEP) is facing a tall task coming off a best-of-the-rest second behind Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby. Prior to that, he had trip trouble in three consecutive stakes yet managed to improve his Beyers in each of those efforts.

15) FINNICK THE FIERCE (g, Dialed In—Southern Classic, by Southern Image) O-Arnaldo Monge & Rey Hernandez; B-Paige Jillian Blue Sky Stables (KY); T-Rey Hernandez. Lifetime Record: GISP, 9-2-1-2, $191,290. Last Start: 7th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11 Equineline PPs

Finnick the Fierce hasn’t dodged any heavy hitters in his preps, and he’s run some respectable races at long odds while picking up a handful checks for minor awards. Most notably, he is one of only two horses to ever finish in front of Tiz the Law, running an 87-1 second in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. over a waterlogged Churchill surface. But Finnick’s only true win was a five-furlong sprint at age two at Indiana Downs in a four-horse field (he also got moved up via DQ at Oaklawn going 1 1/16 miles). Although co-owner and trainer Rey Hernandez noted this Dialed In gelding has thrice run well from post one, the rail draw is traditionally a disadvantage in the crowded Derby, and it’s even more complicated for Finnick because he lost his right eye as a baby (congenital cataract) and won’t be able to see the wall of horses to his immediate outside.

16) STORM THE COURT (c, Court Vision–My Tejana Storm, by Tejano Run) O-Exline-Border Racing LLC & David A Bernsen LLC; B-Stepping Stone Farm (KY); T-Peter Eurton. Sales History: $5,000 Ylg ’18 FTKFEB; $60,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 9-2-1-3, $1,310,451.
Last Start: 2nd GIII La Jolla H., DMR, Aug. 9.
Equineline PPs.

Storm the Court enters the Derby winless in 10 months, with his last score being the 45-1 shocker in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that he has been unable to replicate. Although this $60,000 OBSAPR bay (bought for $5,000 as a FTKFEB yearling) doesn’t have a “traditional” Derby-horse pedigree, hints of it are there. Sire Court Vision, although known as a MGISW turfer who capped his career with a win in the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile, did start his career on dirt with wins in the GIII Iroquois S. and GII Remsen S. at age two, and he started in both the Kentucky Derby and GI Travers S. at three. Dam-sire Tejano Run was a rugged (8-4-6 from 21 starts) MGSW/MGISP galloper who ran second in the 1995 Derby.

17) MAJOR FED (c, Ghostzapper—Bobby’s Babe, by Smart Strike) O-Lloyd Madison Farms IV LLC; B-Lloyd Madison IV (KY); T-Greg Foley. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 6-1-2-1, $215,600.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Indiana Derby, IND, July 8
Equineline PPs.

Major Fed is one of three Derby entrants who have yet to win beyond the maiden ranks. This Ghostzapper homebred out of a Smart Strike mare has earned two seconds in Grade II and Grade III stakes, and his best efforts have come from mid-pack stalking trips. He has a habit of getting parked out wide on the turns, so trying to tuck in to save ground from post five might be his best shot.

18) WINNING IMPRESSION (g, Paynter—Unbridled Sonya, by Unbridled’s Song) O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Pearl Racing; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Dallas Stewart. Sales History: $17,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP; $77,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 9-1-1-2, $98,552.
Last Start: 7th Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, ELP, Aug. 9
Equineline PPs.

Winning Impression has the makings of a mudlark. Unfortunately for him, the advance forecast for Derby day is clear and sunny. He’s crossed the finish wire first both times he’s raced over the slop (losing one via DQ) but has been beaten double-digit lengths in a pair of seventh-place efforts in two summer stakes preps since then. His sire, Paynter, was second in the 2012 GI Belmont S. over 1 1/2 miles, so there is a glimmer of hope that 10 furlongs in the Derby could be a move-up for him.

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