Ellis Starr | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Comebacking Gufo Well-Spotted In Man O’ War

Saturday's Grade 1, $700,000 Man o' War Stakes at Belmont Park drew a field of eight top level marathon turf runners with seven having proven competitive at this level in races around North America. Then there's Sovereign, making his North American debut and returning to the races after last racing in November. Sovereign has earned $1.14 million in his career, top in this field, the bulk of that when winning the Group 1 Irish Derby in the summer of 2019.

Next in terms of earnings is Channel Cat, who won the Grade 2 Bowling Green Stakes in the summer of 2019 as well and who finished second in the Grade 2 Elkhorn Stakes in his most recent race. Another horse which earned a big win in 2019 but not since is Ziyad, who was victorious in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Deauville in August of that year. He makes his third start in the U.S. since importing last fall and has two third place efforts since then. Gufo won the Grade 1 Belmont Derby over this course last fall and just missed in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby before taking time off, returning for his 2021 debut in this race.

Moon Over Miami won the Dueling Grounds Derby last summer, a race which doesn't yet carry a graded designation but with a seven-hundred thousand dollar purse similar to that of the Man o' War. Field Pass won the Grade 3 Ontario Derby and the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes last year and makes his second start of 2021 following a fourth place effort in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile. Shamrocket has two wins in 13 career races, none in a stakes race although he was third in the Dueling Grounds Derby last summer. So High rounds out the field and is running in a stakes race for the first time while still eligible for allowance races.

Gufo returns to racing following five months off but that is of no concern when coming back in a marathon on turf like the Man o' War Stakes. Gufo won the second through fifth starts of his career starting in December, 2019, through July of last year when taking the Kent Stakes, then just missed by a head in the $500,000 Saratoga Derby Invitational in August. Next, in his first and only start on the Belmont turf, Gufo won the Belmont Derby in October with a 104 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure which was very strong for a 3-year-old.

In his final race of the year, Gufo was exceptionally game when rallying from last of 11 to be in a three horse photo on the wire, losing by a head and a neck with a 107 figure. The horses which beat him that day, Domestic Spending and Smooth Like Strait, are near the top of the turf division in North America having just finished first (in a dead heat) and third last weekend in the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes. Now a more physically mature 4-year-old, Gufo should run even better than he did last year and that makes him the one to beat in this year's Man o' War Stakes.

Field Pass is also a 4-year-old and has a similar pattern to Gufo which suggests he could run a big race in this situation. Last summer, Field Pass proved his stakes quality when winning the Audubon Stakes and Transylvania Stakes in succession. In October, Field Pass earned a career-best figures of 109 when third in the Twilight Derby, won by Smooth Like Strait (who finished third in the Turf Classic last weekend). After winning the Ontario Derby on all-weather in November with a new career-best 110 figure, Field Pass finished fourth in the Mathis Brothers Mile Stakes (won by Smooth like Strait) before resting to begin his 2021 campaign.

In his comeback race last month, Field Pass was not disgraced when finishing fourth of nine in the Maker's Mark Mile and appears very well spotted to improve considerably in his second start of the year to be a factor in this race. Although he's never run this far, as a son of Lemon Drop Kid he should have no problem successfully running the distance because a STATS Race Lens query reveals the sire has produced four top graded stakes winners at similar distances.

Sovereign has been working steadily in Florida and New York for his U. S. debut. He is now in the barn of top trainer Chad Brown, who has a very strong knack with having his horses coming back from layoffs and making their U.S. debuts in top shape. A STATS Race Lens query reveals over the last five years, Brown has won with six of 22 (27%) similar starters in graded stakes. Sovereign earned the biggest win of his career when winning the Irish Derby in 2019 easily by six lengths. Since then, Sovereign has finished second or third in five races. One of those was when second to the incomparable mare Enable in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes last summer at Ascot, an effort which earned a 117 figure good enough to win the Man o' War if repeated.

Honorable mention has to go to Ziyad, who earned a 111 figure last October in his U.S. debut when third and beaten just two lengths in the Sycamore Stakes. Similarly, Channel Cat earned a 115 figure last month when second in the mile and one-half Elkhorn Stakes. As such I wouldn't argue with anyone who considered them contenders to win this race.

Also, Moon over Miami earned a decent 109 figure when second in the Pan American Stakes at a mile and one-half at the end of March and may fit as a contender as well. I don't feel the same way about Shamrocket, who although earning a 109 figure at the end of March did so at a mile and one-eighth and in a non-graded stakes so appears a bit overmatched. So High is definitely overmatched in this field as his best effort earned an 89 figure and he is still eligible for the first allowance condition as well as was running in a claiming level race as recently as December.

Win Contenders:
Gufo
Field Pass
Sovereign (IRE)

Man o' War Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Belmont
Saturday, May 8 – Post Time 5:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Eighths on Turf
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $700,000

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Equibase Analysis: Rock Your World, Known Agenda Poised To Upset Essential Quality In Kentucky Derby

Back at its traditional place on the calendar on the first Saturday in May and using the new 20 horse gate for only the second time in Kentucky Derby history, the 147th running of the Grade 1, $3 million Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve is expected to be a very competitive event. Among the 20 entrants, only four have won two or more consecutive races leading to the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports.”

One of those is Essential Quality, who is undefeated in five races including the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall and most recently the Grade 2 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Rock Your World is another undefeated colt, having won his first two races on grass before a consummate four and one-quarter length victory in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby last month on dirt. Another top quality colt sporting two straight wins is Known Agenda, easy winner of the Grade 1 Florida Derby five weeks ago.

Super Stock won another of the major prep races when victorious in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby four weeks ago. Bourbonic posted the 72 to 1 upset in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on the first Saturday in April, and Helium won the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby on the first Saturday in March but has not raced since. Another horse away from the races a bit more than some of the others is Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie. The Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks was won by Like the King near the end of March, while King Fury won the final prep of the season, the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes, three weeks ago.

In addition to those Derby prep race winners, six horses which finished second in those major races, some by inches, are trying to turn the tables on their foes. That list consists of Dynamic One (Wood Memorial), Highly Motivated (Blue Grass), Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby), Midnight Bourbon (Louisiana Derby), Sainthood (Jeff Ruby) and Soup and Sandwich (Florida Derby).

O Besos finished fourth in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and third in the Louisiana Derby and hopes to improve, as does Wood Memorial fifth place finisher Brooklyn Strong and Louisiana Derby sixth place finisher Mandaloun, who had won the Risen Star prior to that. The field is completed by Hidden Stash and Keepmeinmind, who were most recently fourth and fifth, respectively, in the Blue Grass.

It is with some handicapping liberty every year I will delineate six horses that have the bulk of the probability to win the Kentucky Derby. Some will have a larger chance to win than others, but some of those with a lesser chance may offer a lot more return for the risk when betting and are certainly not out of the question. For this year's Derby the top six win contenders, in slight preference order, are Rock Your World, Known Agenda, Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, King Fury and Super Stock.

Rock Your World was bred to adore both turf and dirt. He started his career on the grass, winning with maturity from off the pace in his debut on New Year's Day then going into a stakes race in his next start and winning even more powerfully. Trainer John Sadler has stated, perhaps tongue-in-cheek, the reason for this was to avoid all the fantastically bred 3-year-old colts trained by Bob Baffert which quickly becomes talked about as Derby contenders early in the year. In any event, Rock Your World transitioned to dirt for the third start of his career in the Santa Anita Derby and it was a career-best effort in which he earned a 103 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure.

That's not yet in range of the top contenders in the Derby field, for example Essential Quality (109) and Known Agenda (112), but considering Rock Your World has raced two-three fewer times than those other two horses, it is very likely he can run even faster than he has to date. In the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Your World led from the start and widened in the last quarter mile, but he does not need the lead to win as evidenced by his off-the-pace rallies in the first two starts of his career.

Since the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Your World has put in two sensational five-eighths of a mile workouts in preparation for the race so there can be no doubt he's in tip-top condition. Add to that he has a physical presence, as when getting off the van at Churchill Downs earlier this week and noisily announcing “I'm Here” to anyone who was within earshot. Last, and definitely not least, it must be noted that after he crossed the finish line in the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Your World was not eased up as most horses are. Instead, he was ridden further as if the race was longer in order to remind him of his next task in this mile and one-quarter test that is the Kentucky Derby.

Known Agenda has been a new horse, a phenomenal horse, since blinkers were added one race before last. He won the first race in the new equipment by 11 lengths with a 103 (stakes quality) ™ Figure, though it wasn't a stakes race. Then one month later in the Florida Derby, Known Agenda showed a quick burst of speed with a quarter mile to go when moving from fourth, two and one-half lengths back, to lead entering the stretch. That effort earned a career-best 112 figure which is the best in the field and his pattern for improvement can continue.

Historically, that is the type of burst of speed which wins more editions of the Kentucky Derby than it does not. This is because it's critical to go past a number of horses quickly before many of them will be able to react. At that point in the Derby, there's not usually a lot of passing as many horses have hit the proverbial wall human runners know about very well. The rail draw has historically been problematic in the Derby, and so it might be for Known Agenda, but given 2020 North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. knows him so well after those two wins, I suspect they may be able to hold mid-pace position in the early stages in spite of a number of horses coming closer to the rail to save ground. If that happens and Known Agenda gets a ground saving trip without losing too many positions out of the gate, and if able to repeat the acceleration he showed with a quarter mile to run in the Florida Derby, he could win Kentucky Derby 147.

It is difficult to disregard any undefeated horse, especially one like Essential Quality who won the Breeders' Futurity last fall in only the second start of his career, then won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and who has won both starts as a three year old. The pattern is unmistakable for an improving athlete, with Equibase figures of 88-95-101 and 105 before a new career-best 109 in the Blue Grass Stakes. In the Blue Grass Essential Quality looked like he would never go by Highly Motivated¸ who had led from the start, but as the finish line came nearer his determination took over and he prevailed by a neck. As he is making his third start following nearly four months off, Essential Quality likely has more improving to do and if he peaks in the Kentucky Derby as is certainly possible he could become the 10th horse to exit the Derby undefeated.

Highly Motivated did everything right in the Blue Grass except come out on top in the photo and there is nothing to be ashamed of in finishing a head behind undefeated Essential Quality. After improving throughout his two-year-old campaign with 87, 89 and 104 figures including winning the Nyquist Stakes in his last start of 2020, Highly Motivated took four months off to grow up. Returning to finish third in the Gotham Stakes in March with a 102 figure, Highly Motivated went to the front from the start in the Blue Grass and kept Essential Quality at bay until the final strides, improving to a career-best 108 figure not to be trifled with when compared to the other top contenders in this field. Although not showing the explosive kick at the quarter pole similar to Known Agenda, it must be noted that both Highly Motivated and Essential Quality both quickened their stride with about a quarter of a mile to run in the race and opened up many lengths on the rest of the field. This leads me to believe that in the 20 horse Kentucky Derby field, Highly Motivated may be able to change gears nicely at the critical stage of the race and have a say in the outcome.

King Fury and Super Stock are both likely to be longshots (20 to 1 or more) and although both have less chance to succeed as compared to the four horses previously mentioned, I for one would be kicking myself if I did not at least have a small wager to win on both of them and watch them win at very high odds.

King Fury won the first and third races of his career last year. Both happened to be at Churchill Downs and the latter of the pair came in the Street Sense Stakes. Following poor seventh and fifth place efforts in stakes to end 2020, King Fury was given a good deal of time off, four and one-half months to be exact. Returning just three weeks ago in the Lexington Stakes, King Fury closed from eighth of nine like a flash to make the lead at the top of the stretch and open up to win easily. The 103 Equibase figure is the same as Rock Your World earned in the Santa Anita Derby and definitely can be improved upon in the colt's second start off the long layoff. As a son of Curlin (the same sire as Known Agenda), who himself finished third in the 2007 Derby and who has sired the most winners at this 10 furlong distance of any sire of an entrant in this year's race, there is little doubt King Fury should be able to run the distance successfully.

Super Stock put it all together for the 12 to 1 upset in the Arkansas Derby last month, earning a career-best 106 figure which puts him in the top group of win contenders. He had finished fourth in the Rebel Stakes one month earlier, but that followed four and one-half months off and he may not have been fully cranked up for the Rebel. Having finished third behind Essential Quality in the Breeders' Futurity last fall and second behind King Fury in the Street Sense Stakes in October and now back in top form with room to improve, Super Stock should not be ruled out as a contender to post the upset in this year's Kentucky Derby.

The rest of the Kentucky Derby field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures is Brooklyn Strong (99), Bourbonic (100), Dynamic One (100), Hidden Stash (93), Helium (94), Hot Rod Charlie (99), Keepmeinmind (98), Like the King (95), Mandaloun (97), Medina Spirit (100), Midnight Bourbon (96), O Besos (96), Sainthood (93) and Soup and Sandwich (108).

Win contenders:
Rock Your World
Known Agenda
Essential Quality
Highly Motivated
King Fury
Super Stock

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, Saturday May 1, at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and most online wagering sites.

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Equibase Analysis: Keeper Ofthe Stars Able To Best Male Rivals In San Francisco Mile

This Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 San Francisco Mile Stakes is a regularly anticipated feature during the Golden Gate Fields spring meeting. Not only is it a graded stakes with a quarter million dollar purse, it's sandwiched between a great trio of races with the California Derby preceding and the California Oaks following this race.

Five of the eight entrants in this year's San Francisco Mile ship up from Santa Anita in anticipation of victory. Among that group, the mare Keeper Ofthe Stars has some of the best credentials, having won the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes last May. She also sports a perfect three-for-three record on the Golden Gate turf course.

Ohio has won 11 races in his career for $639,298 in lifetime earnings, a good portion of that when winning the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile in March of 2019. Restrainedvengence has banked $642,182 to lead the field in earnings, his wins including the Downs at Albuquerque Handicap last September.

Kiwi's Dream missed by a head when second in last year's San Francisco Mile and is a horse which has led through the opening half-mile in each of his last seven races. Whisper Not finished third in the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile last December and enters the race off a sharp win at Santa Anita. Border Town finished third in the Grade 3 Thunder Road Stakes in February. Brown Storm is winless in six races since coming to the U.S. from South America and like Kiwi's Dream appears to be a need-the-lead type, as does Diamond Blitz, who is stepping way up in class after facing claiming level horses for the past two years.

Keeper Ofthe Stars checks all the boxes when it comes to predicting which horse has the highest probability to win this year's San Francisco Mile Stakes. A winner of six of 13 career starts on turf, the mare beat some of the top fillies and mares in the U.S. last year twice in a row, first when winning the Buena Vista Stakes in February at this mile trip with a 112 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure and second when taking the Gamely Stakes last May with a career-best 115 figure. After a couple of disappointing efforts in June and August, Keeper Ofthe Stars was given time off, returning in top form following eight months off to win on the Golden Gate turf three weeks ago. Having put together back-to-back wins twice in the last 18 months and with a lot of improving to do physically in her second start back from a layoff, this mare (who gets a five pound weight break versus her male rivals) is the one to beat.

Ohio also enters this race off a sharp effort in victory, winning the Cotton Fitzsimmons Mile Handicap at Turf Paradise for the third year in a row. With that win, Ohio brought his record at one mile on turf to seven for 20, including when victorious in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita in March, 2019, with a career best 119 figure. In the fall of that year, Ohio finished second in the Berkeley Handicap at Golden Gate. His win in the Fitzsimmons Stakes came in his second start back following 10 months off so like Keeper Ofthe Stars, Ohio can be expected to improve off the 104 figure earned last time out and could give Keeper Ofthe Stars all she can handle in the stretch run.

Restrainedvengence is certainly no slouch, having earned more than any other horse in the field. His best effort may have been when beaten a head in the City of Hope Mile at Santa Anita in the fall of 2019 where he earned a 113 ™ figure, but he also ran just as well when capturing the All American Stakes last May at Golden Gate with a 112 figure. Like the other two top contenders, Restrainedvengence is likely to improve, having returned from five months off in March when sixth then running a much better race last month when second in the Santana Mile Stakes. Although he finished fourth in last year's San Francisco Mile, Restrainedvengence won his only other start on the Golden Gate turf course and must be respected as a contender to win in this year's race.

The rest of the field, with their best representative ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Border Town (109), Brown Storm (105), Diamond Blitz (96), Kiwi's Dream (112) and Whisper Not (109).

Win Contenders:
Keeper Ofthe Stars
Ohio (BRZ)
Restrainedvengence

San Francisco Mile Stakes – Grade 3
Race 9 at Golden Gate Fields
Saturday, April 24 – Post Time 7:45 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Three Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $250,000

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Equibase Analysis: Monarch’s Glen Poised To Upset Elkhorn For Maker

Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Elkhorn Stakes is one of two marathon 1 1/2-mile graded stakes during the Keeneland spring meeting. This race is for males and the Bewitch Stakes next week is for females. Ten horses entered the Elkhorn this year and most have top credentials in similar races.

In terms of career earnings, the field is led by Channel Cat, winner of over $950,000 in his career in similar races. However, the now 6-year-old is returning from three months off and hasn't won since taking the Grade 2 Bowling Green Stakes in August of 2019. Similarly, Cross Border has earned in excess of three-quarters of a million dollars but hasn't won since last July when victorious in the Lubash Stakes. Next there's 2019 Elkhorn runner-up Red Knight, who also captured the similar Grade 3 Sycamore Stakes at Keeneland last fall, and is returning from a five month layoff.

Say the Word has run much more recently than Channel Cat and Red Knight as he was beaten less than one length when second in the Grade 3 San Luis Rey Stakes. Another horse worth noting is Tide of the Sea, who won the Grade 2 William L. McKnight Stakes in January before a runner-up effort in the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida Stakes in February. North Dakota proved capable against similar horses when capturing the Grade 3 Red Smith Stakes last November. A newcomer to marathon stakes on turf is Monarch's Glen, a recent acquisition by trainer Mike Maker, who saddled the winner of the Elkhorn in 2016, 2019, and last year.

Fantasioso makes his U.S. debut after importing from his native Argentina, where he won five of 23 races and was second in six others. Epic Bromance is trying stakes competition for the first time off a wire-to-wire win at 11 furlongs last month. Crafty Daddy rounds out the field, having returned from four months off at the end of March to finish third in the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes. He has never run farther than a mile and one-eighth whereas most of the others are proven at this distance.

Trainer Mike Maker has become well-known the past few years for winning these kinds of long turf races, and his record at Keeneland particularly bears that out. A STATS Race Lens query looking at Maker's record on turf at Keeneland reveals he has saddled three of the last six winners of the Elkhorn Stakes, as well as one of the winners in the fall equivalent of this race, the Sycamore Stakes.

Maker has three entrants in this race in the form of Cross Border, Monarchs Glen (GB) and Tide of the Sea, and of the trio I fancy Monarchs Glen more than the other two, particularly as I suspect he will go to post at the highest odds of the three. Monarchs Glen won five of 11 races in the U.K. and Dubai before importing to the U.S. in the spring of 2019. He was so well regarded in Europe that in his final start, in the fall of 2018, he ran in the Group 1 ($1.7 million) Qipco Champion Stakes against Cracksman and Crystal Ocean. Since then he won just one of 12 U.S. starts before being entered into a $75,000 claiming race this January. Claimed out of a third place effort in that race, Monarchs Glen finished ninth and fourth before being claimed once more, this time by Mike Maker.

The fact that the horse was claimed for $62,500 out of his most recent start and can earn the winner's share of $120,000 may be incentive enough to think Maker capable of winning this race again, but recalling 2019 Sycamore winner Marzo was a recent claim before the victory by Maker, as well as many of Maker's other stakes winners were acquisitions where he saw something other trainers had missed, makes me believe Monarchs Glen can run well although he's never raced this far.

Being by champion Frankel out of a Lear Fan mare is the reason I believe this trip is what he wants. Additionally, the 110 Equibase Speed Figure he earned winning last November matching the figures of horses already proven at the level such as Say the Word (111) and Red Knight (114) so he may only need to repeat his best effort to post the upset win.

Say the Word won the Northern Dancer Stakes at this 12 furlong turf trip last November, certainly the biggest win of his career to that point. Three races later and after moving to the barn of trainer Phil D'Amato in California, Say the Word once again ran a big race, missing by three-quarters of a length to multiple grade stakes winner United in the San Luis Rey Stakes. With the meet's leading jockey in Luis Saez getting on and with a career-best 111 Equibase Figure from his most recent race to repeat or improve upon, Say the Word would be no surprise if he was right in the thick of the action on the wire.

Red Knight fits perfectly here with one small exception and that is he hasn't raced since November. On the other hand, Red Knight finished second of 10 last September in the Kentucky Turf Cup following more than seven months off. Following that effort, Red Knight won the Sycamore Stakes at this distance on the Keeneland turf, earning a very strong 114 figure which would make him competitive here if repeated. Jockey James Graham rode Red Knight in the Sycamore, not before or since, and gets back on so that is a positive sign as well.

Honorable mention goes to Tide of the Sea, another horse trained by Mike Maker. Likely to be the early pacesetter, Tide of the Sea used his early speed to win the William L. McKnight Stakes at Gulfstream Park in wire-to-wire fashion in January. However, not only did that effort yield at 104 figure about seven to 10 points lower than the main contenders above, Epic Bromance is another horse in this field who appears to be a need-the-lead type, so I think Tide of the Sea may not get the easy lead he needs to win. Nevertheless, he could be a part of the exacta and finish second at the very least, just as he's done in four of 11 lifetime races.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Channel Cat (111), Crafty Daddy (108), Cross Border (115), Epic Bromance (103), Fantasioso (ARG) (112) and North Dakota (98).

Win Contenders:
Monarch's Glen
Say the Word
Red Knight

Elkhorn Stakes – Grade 2
Race 9 at Keeneland
Saturday, April 17 – Post Time 5:30 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Half on Turf
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $200,000

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