Ellis Starr | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Midnight Bourbon Poised To Upset Haskell

This Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million TVG.com Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park drew a field of seven, led by Grade 1 Kentucky Derby runner-up Mandaloun and third place finisher Hot Rod Charlie, both of whom have run well since then. Mandaloun won the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth since the Derby, while Hot Rod Charlie finished second in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, so both enter the Haskell in top form.

Midnight Bourbon finished sixth in the Derby before a second place finish in the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, so also fits the bill of a horse that has been competitive at the top level for 3-year-olds. Following Sea is the unknown factor in the race, having won his last two races by an average of six lengths and in powerful fashion, but he is racing in a stakes and running in a route race for the first time. Antigravity, Basso, and Pickin' Time round out the field, the latter the only stakes winner among the three as he captured the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes last November before three much poorer efforts.

Midnight Bourbon intrigues this handicapper in this year's Haskell Stakes. Midnight Bourbon got the jump on many a Kentucky Derby contender when winning the Lecomte Stakes in January following three months off, easily beating Mandaloun by a length. Following that, he finished third behind Mandaloun in the Risen Star Stakes then second behind Hot Rod Charlie in the Louisiana Derby, a race in which Mandaloun checked in sixth. In the Kentucky Derby, Midnight Bourbon was bumped early and four wide on both turns but managed to rally from 12th to sixth at the end while his two foes each got much better trips. Returning two weeks later in the Preakness, which both the other two passed, Midnight Bourbon stalked the pacesetter in second before making the lead and opening up with an eighth of a mile to go before being run down by Rombauer.

Still, Midnight Bourbon was two lengths clear of Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit and much further ahead of the other seven horses. Considering his breeding, it is no surprise Midnight Bourbon fits at the top level and two of his half-brothers (same dam) have had tremendous success at Monmouth. One of those is Pirates Punch, who won both the Iselin Stakes and Salvator Mile Stakes last year. More importantly, the other is 2017 Haskell winner Girvin, who earned more than $1.6 million in his career. With consistent ™ Equibase® Speed Figures going back to the Lecomte of 99, 95, 96, 99 and 98, it is conceivable Midnight Bourbon could be that much more mature with two months off and can turn the tables on both Hot Rod Charlie and Mandaloun to win this year's Haskell Stakes.

Mandaloun really needs no talking up as his 4-1-1 record in seven career starts speaks for itself. Ignoring the Louisiana Derby where he finished sixth and considering he rebounded nicely for second in the Kentucky Derby following that race, Mandaloun has showed up every time he has run. Following the Derby, Mandaloun was very game in securing a neck victory last month in the local prep for the Haskell, the Pegasus Stakes, and certainly familiarity with the track has its benefits. Having earned a 110 ™ Figure in the Derby then following that up with a 109 figure in the Pegasus, Mandaloun should be expected to run another “A” race good enough to win in this race.

Hot Rod Charlie has a tremendous competitive spirit as evidenced by finishing no worse than third in all seven route races in his career, the last five of those graded stakes. After proving his runner-up effort at 94 to 1 odds in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall was no fluke when winning the Louisiana Derby two races later this past March, the colt was third in the Kentucky Derby (109 figure) before his runner up effort in the Belmont Stakes (108 figure) last month. The one knock Hot Rod Charlie may have, however, is he doesn't have any type of explosive kick. In the last quarter mile of his past six races, he has not really passed a horse. For example, in the Derby he was third for the last part of the race and in the Belmont he was second for the last quarter mile. Blinkers are removed for the Haskell which may help him find that added kick in the stretch when he sees his opponents better and certainly Hot Rod Charlie has earned his place among the top 3-year-olds of 2021 and might make his mark in this year's Haskell.

Honorable mention goes to Following Sea, who finished second in his debut in March before authoritatively winning his other two races. Earning a 110 figure competitive with the top contenders in this race while geared down to a five and three-quarter length win in April, in only the second start of his career, Following Sea won just as easily by 6 1/2 lengths last month with a 105 figure effort. Going from a sprint (6 1/2 furlongs) to a nine-furlong race is a tall order, but Following Sea is now in the hands of Todd Pletcher so there is no question he is ready for this test. As to pedigree, sire Runhappy's progeny have won 11 of 55 route races to date, though few have contested stakes. If not for the lack of experience in route races, Following Sea might have been my top choice to win this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Antigravity (97), Basso (82) and Pickin' Time (91).

Win Contenders:
Midnight Bourbon
Mandaloun
Hot Rod Charlie

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Equibase Analysis: Tokyo Gold, Not Bolshoi Ballet, The Horse To Beat In Belmont Derby

This Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Derby Invitational drew a field of nine horses, six which are stakes winners with five of those entering the race off victories. Leading the field in earnings is Tokyo Gold (FR), winner of the Group 3 Derby Italiano Universita Campus Bio-Med in May, otherwise known as the Italian Derby.

However, likely favoritism among bettors is likely to come from Bolshoi Ballet (IRE), winner of the Group 3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial before a disappointing seventh place finish as the betting favorite in the Group 1 Cazoo Derby (otherwise known as the Epsom Derby) last month.

Du Jour deserves respect as he enters the Belmont Derby off a victory in the Grade 2 American Turf Stakes in May, which was his third straight win. Similarly, Sainthood won the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge Stakes at the end of May at Belmont, but on dirt, when the race was transferred to the main track due to the condition of the turf course.

Cellist is another of the recent stakes winners, having captured the Audubon Stakes at the end of May, with Palazzi beaten three-quarters of a length when second in that race. Hard Love won the Woodhaven Stakes on turf in April following five months off before a strong allowance win last month.

Safe Conduct and Hidden Enemy (IRE) round out the field, the former an allowance winner at the start of May before a poor fourth place finish in the Pennine Ridge at the end of the month and the latter a non-threatening fourth in both the American Turf and Audubon.

Tokyo Gold (FR) had a fairly good 2-year-old campaign when winning the second and third starts of his career last summer, the latter of the two in a listed stakes. Finishing off his season, Tokyo Gold (FR) was beaten more than 20 lengths in a group three race but that was run on heavy ground which he did not care for. Returning for his sophomore season in March, Tokyo Gold (FR) finished second in a listed stakes before a fourth of nine finish in the Prix Noailles Stakes. His “light bulb” moment came in the Italian Derby on May 23 when, after racing in the back of the pack for most of the race, Tokyo Gold (FR) took to the middle of the track and accelerated strongly to win by four lengths, eased up at the finish.

The acceleration shown when given his cue in the Italian Derby showed Tokyo Gold (FR) had come of age and the pattern of improving ™ Equibase® Speed Figures this year (97, 105 then 107) suggests Tokyo Gold (FR) is the one to beat in this year's Belmont Derby Invitational, particularly as he is shortening up in distance from one mile and three-eighths to one mile and one-quarter and gets John Velazquez to ride.

Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) was sent to post as the fairly heavy favorite in the Epsom Derby last month on the strength of his six length win one month earlier in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial but checked in seventh. The reason for the poor effort was revealed as soon as the colt returned to be unsaddled as it was discovered he had sustained a cut to his hind leg in the early portions of the race. Prior to the Derby Trial, Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) won the Ballysax Stakes rather easily in his 3-year-old, following six months off. Earning a 106 ™ figure in the Ballysax before a new career-best 113 figure in the Derby Trial, it wouldn't be a leap to assume the colt would have improved again in the Epsom Derby if not for the injury and so if he returns to the form shown in those two earlier wins, both at the mile and one-quarter distance of the Belmont Derby, Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) could provide us with a thrilling battle with Tokyo Gold (FR) in this race.

Hard Love is an improving colt who has potential to post the minor upset if he continues the pattern of improvement he began in April after returning from five months off. A winner on debut last fall, Hard Love improved to a 102 figure effort when second in the Central Park Stakes, then following the layoff won the Woodhaven Stakes in April with a 99 figure. Flattered when the runner-up won his next start, Hard Love entered an allowance race over this turf course to prepare for the Belmont Derby and although not a stakes race it must be noted he was only one of two horses in the 12 horse field which were 3-year-olds, the rest being older horses. Improving markedly to a 105 figure winning that race, if Hard Love can take a similar step forward by six points into the 111 range he could run as well as either Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) and Tokyo Gold (FR) and as such may have a legitimate shot to win this year's Belmont Derby Invitational.

Another improving colt is Du Jour, who has won three races in a row. The pattern of improvement from 84 to 99 to 103 in terms of his Equibase Speed Figures shows a horse which is getting physically and mentally stronger as the season goes on. Du Jour earned his most recent win in the American Turf Stakes on Kentucky Derby day and prevailed nicely in a field of 14. Now in the hands of Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott and retaining the services of jockey Flavien Prat, who has been in the saddle for all three of the colt's wins, Du Jour has to be a horse we consider when wagering on this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Cellist (99), Hidden Enemy (IRE) (93), Palazzi (98), Safe Conduct (99) and Sainthood (101).

Win contenders:
Tokyo Gold (FR)
Bolshoi Ballet (IRE)
Hard Love
Du Jour

Belmont Derby Invitational – Grade 1
Race 9 at Belmont Park
Saturday July 10 – Post Time 5:12 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter on Turf
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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Equibase Analysis: Mystic Guide Likely To Best Happy Saver In Suburban

Although this Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Suburban Stakes drew just six entrants, it is still likely to prove to be a very exciting race because of two horses – Happy Saver and Mystic Guide. Both 4-year-olds and lightly raced, Happy Saver won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup last October and returned to the races at the end of May for a big win, while Mystic Guide returns from three months off after having won the Grade 1, $12 million Dubai World Cup in March, having finished second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup the only time he faced Happy Saver previously.

The contention does not end there, with Informative entering the race off a 79 to 1 upset in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile Stakes last month. Moretti finished third in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Stakes last month following 10 months away from the races and finished second in last year's Suburban so appears to fit here. Max Player and Prioritize round out the field and appear off form, with Max Player coming into the race off a poor sixth place effort in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special and with Prioritize having finished fifth in the same race.

Assuming Mystic Guide is ready to run following a bit over three months off, I think he is more probable to win than Happy Saver based on his win in the Dubai World Cup near the end of March. Now with a record of 4-2-2 in eight career starts, Mystic Guide won the Jim Dandy Stakes last summer as a 3-year-old in only the fifth start of his career, before stretching out to 10 furlongs in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont last October. In that race, Mystic Guide rallied to make the lead by a head with an eight of a mile to go over Happy Saver but was beaten three-quarters of a length at the end, earning a then career-best 104 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure in the process.

Taking four and one-half months off to mature, Mystic Guide made short work of six other horses in the Razorback Stakes in his 2021 debut in February with a 108 figure, before easily defeating 11 other horses in the Dubai World Cup at the distance of the Suburban. The World Cup effort earned a 115 figure, and considering the Suburban will be his third start of the year we can expect even better. Having put in a nice series of workouts since returning to North America, including a best of 33 drill one week ago at the distance of a half-mile, Mystic Guide gets a slight edge over a very worthy opponent in Happy Saver.

Happy Saver actually earned the best ™ figure of his career in his second career start, last July at Saratoga at nine furlongs. The 116 figure was tremendous being as he had only run once before, winning his debut by five lengths in June at the distance of seven furlongs. Easily winning the Federico Tesio Stakes in September, Happy Saver set his sights on the Jockey Club Gold Cup at this 10 furlong trip and put away Mystic Guide in the final yards to earn a 109 figure. Rested nearly eight months, Happy Saver returned to beat a non-descript field of allowance foes as expected at the end of May with a 99 figure. Considering how well he ran in his second career start last July, we can expect Happy Saver to improve markedly off his 2021 debut and that is why the second match between him and Mystic Guide can be expected to be one to behold.

Informative was disregarded at 30 to 1 two races back when finishing second in an allowance race and earning a career-best 103 figure, then one month later ran even better. In the Salvator Mile Stakes at Monmouth on June 12, Informative rallied from last of 10 to win by a length when completely dismissed by bettors at 79 to 1 odds. The 110 figure appears legitimate and as it is as good as the 108 figure Mystic Guide earned winning the Razorback Stakes and the 109 figure Happy Saver earned winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and considering it could be improved upon as Informative is a 4-year-old like the other two contenders, this upstart can't be dismissed as a contender in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Max Player (99), Moretti (106) and Prioritize (107).

Win Contenders:
Mystic Guide
Happy Saver
Informative

Suburban Stakes – Grade 2
Race 10 at Belmont Park
Saturday, July 3 – Post Time 5:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $400,000

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Equibase Analysis: Silver Dust Could Upset Maxfield In Stephen Foster

This Saturday's Grade 2, $600,000 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs brings together a field of nine horses in the Breeders' Cup Classic division trying to earn a “Win and You're In” spot into the big race in November. Leading the field in terms of recent accomplishments is Maxfield, an earner of more than $900K in his career and the winner of six of seven lifetime races who enters the Stephen Foster off a win in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes in April at Churchill.

Chess Chief won the similar Grade 2 New Orleans Stakes in March, before a non-threatening third-place effort behind Maxfield in the Alysheba. Warrior's Charge is another who has had an excellent career, banking $887K, but his most recent win came in February of 2020 when victorious in the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap. Visitant finished second in the Alysheba following a win in the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes and will certainly be on many a contender list.

South Bend won the Street Sense Stakes over the track as a two year old in 2019 and was winless in 12 straight before a strong allowance win in April. Sprawl just missed by a head in a three horse photo in the Blame Stakes over the track in his most recent race. Necker Island won his most recent race, also over the track just 20 days ago, but had not won prior to that since November, 2019 and has never won a stakes race. Empty Tomb rounds out the field, also going for his first stakes win and also having just won a race at Churchill Downs last month.

I'll start my win contender list with Silver Dust, who has a lot of mental ability to go along with his physical ability. This has resulted in 14 first or second place finishes in 31 dirt races and earnings of $975,677. Perhaps better still, Silver Dust has finished in the top three in eight of 10 career starts at Churchill Downs, winning twice. His best effort ever came over the track and was not a win but occurred when leading late and coming up a neck short of victory in the Lukas Classic Stakes in the fall of 2019, earning a very strong 113 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure in the process.

Putting that into perspective among the rest of the field, favorite Maxfield earned a 115 figure winning the Alysheba Stakes in his most recent race. In April, 20 days before Maxfield won the Alysheba, Silver Dust won the Ben Ali Stakes at the distance of the Stephen Foster even after a slow start and having to battle with two other horses the entire length of the stretch. Jockey Adam Beschizza rode Silver Dust to that victory and rides again which in my opinion gives Silver Dust a chance at posting the upset over likely heavily favored Maxfield in the race.

Maxfield won the first five races of his career including four stakes, the biggest of which was the 2019 Breeders' Futurity. Last season as a three year old Maxfield won the Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs in May but was unable to make the rescheduled Kentucky Derby in September. He returned off a layoff last December to win consecutive races including the Mineshaft Stakes with a then career-best 111 ™ figure. After a disappointing third-place finish as the heavy favorite in the Santa Anita Handicap in March of this year, Maxfield won the Alysheba Stakes on April 30 at Churchill Downs with authority, establishing a new career-best 115 figure while pulling away at the end to suggest he can run even better in the Stephen Foster.

Visitant won three of four races to start his career including the Alcatraz Stakes in the spring of 2019, then after two poorer efforts and a setback took 13 months off. Returning in the fall of 2020, Visitant got back into top form in his first two-turn race and second start of his comeback last December, then two races later in March won the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes at the distance of the Stephen Foster. Earning career-best 107 ™ figures in the comeback win in March and in the Kentucky Cup Classic, Visitant next squared off against Maxfield in the Alysheba and wasn't disgraced a bit when settling for second after leading for the first six furlongs in the race. The 110 figure earned in the Alysheba was a new best figure and he was four lengths clear of the third horse in a solid effort. Having run three “A” races in a row as a five year old, Visitant must be respected as a strong contender in this year's Stephen Foster Stakes.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Chess Chief (106), Empty Tomb (100), Necker Island (99), South Bend (102), Sprawl (111) and Warrior's Charge (110).

Win Contenders:
Silver Dust
Maxfield
Visitant

Stephen Foster Stakes – Grade 2
Race 11 at Churchill Downs
Saturday, June 26 – Post Time 5:59 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $600,000

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