Ellis Starr | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Armory Poised To Upset Domestic Spending In Mr. D.

This Saturday's Grade 1, $600,000 Mr. D. Stakes, formerly the Arlington Million, features a strong field of 10 including Domestic Spending (GB), who has reeled off three straight Grade 1 stakes wins, the most recent of which came in the Manhattan Stakes in June at the distance of the Mr. D. Stakes.

Zulu Alpha, who leads the field in career earnings at $2.2 million, makes his second start following 10 months off and hopes to run back to his form of 2020 when winning three of five graded stakes including the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes. Bizzee Channel just won the local prep for this race, the Grade 3 Arlington Stakes and goes for his third win in a row. Then there's Armory (IRE) – from the barn of Aiden O'Brien (who will bring along world class jockey Ryan Moore from across the pond as well) – who finished fourth in the Group 2 York Stakes in his most recent race and who won the Group 2 Hurley Stakes earlier this year.

Two Emmys missed by a head to Bizzee Channel in the Arlington Stakes and could be up to the task, as could Arlington Stakes third-place finisher Another Mystery. Strong Tide finished sixth in the non-graded Johnathan B. Schuster Memorial Stakes in his most recent start and similarly Glynn County was fifth in the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes around the same time and both appear overmatched in this field. Big Dreaming finished second in the Dueling Grounds Derby last summer and enters the race off an allowance win but is taking a very big step up on class to this grade 1 stakes level. Space Traveler (GB) is another European import. He has never run farther than one mile in his 19-race career and his most recent win came in the non-graded Ganton Stakes in June at a mile.

Armory (IRE) can add to the success European imports have had in Grade 1 races in the U.S. this summer, similar to Bolshoi Ballet winning the Belmont Derby and State of Rest winning the Saratoga Invitational Derby last weekend. Armory (IRE) has won five of 15 career starts, including one at this 10-furlong turf trip and one at the slightly longer distance of one and five-sixteenths miles. After a runner-up effort in the Group 1 Cox Plate in Australia last October, Armory (IRE) took time off to mature and returned as a 4-year-old to win the Hurley Stakes in May, earning a then career-best 118 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure. Next, even when third in the Prince of Wales's Stakes in June at Royal Ascot, Armory (IRE) ran fantastically well when checking in third behind sensational turf star Love, improving his career-best figure to 122. Most recently, Armory finished third in the York Stakes last month, behind another superstar in Bangkok, with a 115 figure effort. Jockey Ryan Moore, who rode the trainer's Bolshoi Ballet to victory in the Belmont Derby earlier this year, comes in from Europe to ride and the only time he rode Armory (IRE) this year was to victory in the Hurley Stakes, which suggests Armory (IRE) is ready to win for the sixth time in his 16th career start and emerge victorious in the Mr. D. Stakes.

Domestic Spending (GB) is the strongest challenger to Armory (IRE) in this race, having earned a 119™ figure when winning the Manhattan Stakes on Belmont Stakes day in June in his most recent start. Now having won four stakes in a row starting with the 2020 Saratoga Derby, Domestic Spending (GB) has proven he loves firing big off short rests, such as when winning the Hollywood Derby last fall and when winning the Turf Classic Stakes in May. Jockey Flavien Prat has been aboard for his last two wins and knows exactly when to tell Domestic Spending (GB) to change gears, just as he did in the Manhattan when going from 11 lengths behind the leader in seventh after a mile, to second with an eighth of a mile to go, before drawing off to win by nearly three lengths. Now possessing a six for seven in his career, if Domestic Spending (GB) runs as expected the likely stretch battle between him and Armory (IRE) may be one for the ages.

Zulu Alpha leads the field with 12 career wins and $2.2 million in earnings. Although more known as a horse who loves to run a mile and one-half, the distance he won the Elkhorn Stakes (116™ figure) last year, Zulu Alpha has won at this 10 furlong trip as well and he has won on the Arlington Park turf course as well, something neither Armory (IRE) or Domestic Spending (GB) can claim. Having been away from the races since last September, Zulu Alpha's fifth-place finish in the Arlington Stakes last month can be viewed as a prep for this race. Having earned a career-best 123 figure in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes last year and a 116 figure in the Elkhorn, there can be little doubt Zulu Alpha can run well enough to win this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Another Mystery (113), Big Dreaming (106), Bizzee Channel (111), Glynn County (105), Space Traveller (GB) (112), Strong Tide (115) and Two Emmys (108).

Win contenders:
Armory (IRE)
Domestic Spending (GB)
Zulu Alpha

Mr. D. Stakes – Grade 1
Race 9 at Arlington Park
Saturday August 14 – Post Time 7:13 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter on Turf
Three Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $600,000

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Equibase Analysis: By My Standards Poised To Run Down Knicks Go

The number seven is rampant in the 2021 edition of the Grade 1, $1 million Whitney Stakes, as each of the five entrants possesses seven career victories. Combined, the field has won 35 of 70 races for more than $12 million career earnings. Leading the group is Knicks Go, who has made a career of taking the lead at the start and running his competitors off their feet while coasting home in front in the final eighth of a mile. Using his early speed, Knicks Go has won five of his last six North American starts, most recently the Grade 3 Cornhusker Handicap at the distance of the Whitney.

Next in accomplishments is the filly Swiss Skydiver, winner of the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes against males last fall and winner of the Grade 1 Beholder Mile earlier this year. Maxfield has only been defeated one time in eight career starts and enters the Whitney off strong victories in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes and in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster Stakes, also at the distance of this race. Silver State has also won two graded stakes in a row starting with the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap in April at this nine-furlong trip, followed up by a win in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap in June. Last but certainly not least in this strong quintet is By My Standards¸ runner-up in the 2020 Whitney and winner of the Oaklawn Mile Stakes in April before a runner-up effort in the Metropolitan Handicap.

Owing to the heavy favoritism Knicks Go will receive from bettors, I'm going to opt for By My Standards to post the upset in this year's Whitney Stakes. Winner of the 2019 Louisiana Derby and well-regarded in the Kentucky Derby that year, By My Standards had little chance in the Derby after getting squeezed back at the start and losing position. Sitting out the balance of 2019, By My Standards returned as a 4-year-old last year and won three races in a row including both the New Orleans Classic Stakes and Oaklawn Handicap before a big runner-up effort behind Tom's d'Etat in the 2020 Stephen Foster Stakes. Next came a career best effort with a 113 Equibase Speed Figure when second behind Improbable in the 2020 Whitney. He ran poorly last fall in two races but just as he did to start 2020, By My Standards started 2021 with a bang, first winning the Oaklawn Mile in April before a runner-up effort in the Metropolitan Handicap (Met Mile) in June. Although second in the Met Mile, By My Standards may have been best as he brushed the gate at the start, was soundly bumped back to last of six and was wide on the turn. Nevertheless, By My Standards rallied and was beaten just one length at the finish by Silver State. Now having finished first or second in five of six career starts at this mile and one-eighth distance, with a clean break By My Standards can post the upset win in this year's Whitney by running as well as he did in last year's edition of the race.

That being said, By My Standards must run down Knicks Go in the stretch to win. There's a saying in racing that “speed is the ultimate bias,” and with Knicks Go that is a fact. Brilliant as a 2-year-old when winning the Breeders' Futurity in the fall of 2019, Knicks Go went off form but got his brilliant speed back after moving to the barn of Brad Cox over the winter of 2020. Reeling off three wins in a row including the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile last fall, Knicks Go won the Pegasus World Cup Invitational this past January with a strong 115 figure just one point shy of the career best 116 figure earned three months earlier. Following uncharacteristically poor fourth-place finishes in the Saudi Cup and Metropolitan Mile, Knicks Go showed all his speed, and talent, winning the Cornhusker Handicap last month at the distance of the Whitney and could prove impossible to catch once again.

Maxfield has been nearly perfect in his career, winning seven of eight races. His only loss came when trying 1 1/4 miles in the Santa Anita Handicap in March, perhaps just a bit farther than he wants to run. In his only try at the nine-furlong distance of the Whitney¸ Maxfield easily won the Stephen Foster Stakes in his most recent start near the end of June, earning a 107 figure. Perhaps he didn't have to run any faster, because two months earlier when winning the Alysheba Stakes, Maxfield earned a career-best 115 figure which stands up as nearly the same as the best figures of the top contenders in this field. It must also be noted that jockey Jose Ortiz is a perfect five-for-five when riding Maxfield, compared to four-for-five for Joel Rosario (Knicks Go) and seven-for-14 for Gabriel Saez (By My Standards).

In terms of probability, both Silver State and the filly Swiss Skydiver can't be ruled out. Silver State earned a 113 figure winning the Oaklawn Handicap in April at the distance of the Whitney before a game victory in the Metropolitan Handicap, while Swiss Skydiver already proved capable of beating males in last year's Preakness (111 figure) and won the Beholder Mile in March off a layoff similar to the one she's coming off today. Notably, North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides Swiss Skydiver for the first time and the jockey is in a pitched battle with his brother Jose for the coveted Saratoga riding title, with the brothers having won 24 races each through Wednesday and one behind leading jockey Luis Saez.

Win Contenders, in preference order:
By My Standards
Knicks Go
Maxfield

Whitney Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Saratoga
Saturday, August 7 – Post Time 5:48 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
4-Year-Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase

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Equibase Analysis: Vertical Threat Poised To Upset Bing Crosby

This Saturday's Grade 1, $300,000 Bing Crosby Stakes at Del Mar is a “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Sprint this fall and as such drew a field full of very good sprinters, nine to be exact. Last year's Bing Crosby Stakes winner Collusion Illusion is back to defend his title but whereas he was sent to post at nine to five odds one year ago on the strength of three straight wins, including the Grade 3 Lazaro Barrera Stakes, this year Collusion Illusion returns from seven months off and lost his last three starts of 2020.

Instead, favoritism is likely to go to C Z Rocket with career earnings of nearly $1.4 million, much of that earned when second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall and when winning the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Stakes at Del Mar last summer. Law Abidin Citizen was third in last year's Bing Crosby behind Collusion Illusion then four weeks later finished third in the Pat O'Brien behind C Z Rocket. He enters the race off a win in the Oak Tree Sprint Stakes four weeks ago at Pleasanton.

Vertical Threat is another with strong stakes credentials, last seen winning the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes in November and having also won the Smiling Tiger Stakes at Del Mar last summer. Quick Tempo returned from nearly seven months off four weeks ago for a strong second place effort in the Iowa Sprint Stakes, while Brickyard Ride easily won the Grade 2 San Carlos Stakes in March and enters the race off a win in the Thor's Echo Stakes.

Shooters Shoot is yet another with good credentials in similar sprint stakes as he was second in the Grade 2 Triple Bend Stakes when last seen at the end of May. Eight Rings finished fourth in that race as the eight to five favorite and hasn't run since. Dr. Schivel rounds out the field, but has to be considered a contender as he won the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity last summer and returned from nine months off to win just last month.

Vertical Threat is a perfect three-for-three in sprints. Each of those three wins came at the six furlong distance of the Bing Crosby. One of those wins came at Del Mar last summer when, in only the second start of his career, Vertical Threat won the Smiling Tiger Stakes. That effort earned him a career-best 107 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure off a 102 figure one month earlier. After a failed attempt at a longer distance in the Pat Day Mile last September, Vertical Threat rested two months and shipped to Ohio for a dominant performance with a field high 118 figure winning the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes in a field of 12. In this year's Bing Crosby there is likely to be a contested early pace battle between Quick Tempo and Brickyard Ride, who have only won when leading from the start. Considering Vertical Threat closed from off the pace to win last June then again in July in the Smiling Tiger, the colt could get first run on the tiring leaders and hold off any horses farther back in the early stages. Additionally, he's very likely to be stronger as a four year old so having put in some superb workouts for his comeback, Vertical Threat has a fine chance to keep his perfect record at the distance intact to win.

C Z Rocket has won 11 of 26 career races including four of eight at this distance. He also won the only time he ever raced at Del Mar. That win came last year when taking the Pat O'Brien Stakes at seven furlongs in August with a 110 ™ figure. C Z Rocket is even faster at this six furlong trip, as he earned a 117 figure last September when victorious in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. Not disgraced one bit when second behind Whitmore in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall, C Z Rocket won his first two starts of 2021, first with a 111 figure in the Hot Springs Stakes then a 114 in the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap. Stretching out to a mile and running over a sloppy track, C Z Rocket was second in the Steve Sexton Mile in May and on the cut back to his best distance has every right to rebound to a winning effort.

Dr. Schivel, like Vertical Threat, has only run five times. He improved markedly last summer at Del Mar when easily winning to break his maiden in his third career start (with a 108 figure) before victory in the Del Mar Futurity as the betting favorite. Taking his time to get back to the races, Dr. Schivel returned in June as if he had never been away as he relaxed in fourth in the early stages before getting up by a neck right on the wire. That effort earned him a new career best 109 figure from which he should improve in his second start off the layoff, and as a previous grade 1 stakes winner, Dr. Schivel could certainly run well enough to win.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Brickyard Ride (115), Collusion Illusion (111), Eight Rings (104), Law Abidin Citizen (108), Quick Tempo (107) and Shooters Shoot (101).

Win Contenders:
Vertical Threat
C Z Rocket
Dr. Schivel

Bing Crosby Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Del Mar
Saturday, July 31 – Post Time 9:30 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $300,000

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Equibase Analysis: Can Anyone Stop Going Global’s Win Streak In San Clemente?

Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 San Clemente Stakes at Del Mar racetrack near San Diego, Calif., brings together a field of 12 fillies led by Going Global (IRE), who was imported from Ireland to the United States this winter and has since won four straight stakes on the turf including the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes in May.

Among the other 11 there are many with stakes credentials, including Madone, who won the Grade 3 Senorita Stakes in early May before a sixth-place finish in the Honeymoon. Closing Remarks has finished first or second in five of seven career races including when second and very close behind Going Global (IRE) in the Grade 3 Providencia Stakes this past April. Karakatsie ships cross-country from Gulfstream Park where she just missed by a neck when second in the Martha Washington Stakes while Pizzazz attempts to rebound off a fifth-place effort in the Honeymoon and run more like she did just before that when winning the California Oaks in Northern California.

Another with a good effort in stakes is Nimbostratus (FR), who finished second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes last summer at Del Mar and finished third behind Going Global (IRE) in the Grade 3 Sweet Life Stakes this past February. Tetraganol (IRE) missed by a neck to Madone last October in the Surfer Girl Stakes and deserves some respect, as might California Oaks runner-up Freedom Flyer. Equilove (IRE) imported to the United States after five losing efforts in Ireland last year and has won two of three since then; while Jibber Jabber (IRE) was just second and beaten a half-length by Tetragonal (IRE) so may fit in this race as well. Founder's Day and Dramatizer round out the field.

Main Contenders:

Nimbostratus (FR) is my pick to post the upset over likely heavy betting favorite Going Global (IRE) in this year's San Clemente. After importing to the U.S. last summer, Nimbostratus (FR) showed she had a lot of talent when leading late and settling for second behind Madone in the Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes at Del Mar. After finishing second in a six-furlong allowance race on turf in January, Nimbostratus (FR) rallied for third behind Going Global (IRE) in the Sweet Life Stakes, then was a nose best in a six-furlong dash on the Santa Anita turf on March 6. Following a poor effort in the one-mile Senorita Stakes in May (won by Madone), Nimbostratus (FR) shortened up again and bettered her career-best with a 104 Equibase Speed Figure effort. Jockey Abel Cedillo was aboard for the first time in that race and rides back.

The latter race was an allowance/optional claiming race and I'm pretty sure no one expected Nimbostratus (FR) to be claimed as her price tag was $150,000, but she was. Now in the hands of up-and-coming trainer Leonard Powell, who saddled Flashiest to win the opening day Oceanside Stakes last week, Nimbostratus (FR) can win the San Clemente if she repeats that last effort as the 104 figure is on par with the figure favorite Going Global (IRE) earned in her most recent effort winning the Honeymoon Stakes.

Going Global (IRE) doesn't need much talking up as she's won four straight races since coming to the U.S. in February. All were stakes and her consistent figures of 99, 95 and 99 then most recently 104 show she's holding top form. Trainer Phil D'Amato (who also saddles Equilove (IRE)) has given the filly a series of steady workouts since her last start on May 22 and as the most recent of those were on the Del Mar turf, this filly has every right to run another “A” race good enough to win under jockey Flavien Prat, who has been aboard for all four of her local wins.

Equilove (IRE) fits at the level and may be a horse at higher odds near post time given the nature of this full field. She's never run in a stakes race but her last race was a 102 figure, earned when sprinting last month on turf, and demonstrates she fits with these as it's nearly on par with the 104 figures Going Global (IRE) and Nimbostratus (FR) earned in their most recent races. Equilove (IRE) came to the U.S. over the fall and made her first start for D'Amato in March. She won that race nicely with a 94 figure, then stumbled at the start in her next race and lost all chance but still managed to finish fourth. Next was the breakout race last month in which she led from start to finish under jockey Ricardo Gonzalez, who rides her today. Considering Equilove (IRE) had won her first local start when fifth early and her most recent on the lead from start to finish, that kind of versatility bodes well for her chances to be in the mix at the end of this year's San Clemente Stakes.

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Honorable mention, and some consideration for bets we make involving this race, goes to Madone, Karakatsie and Closing Remarks. Madone won the similar Senorita Stakes at a mile in May but the figure was just 89 so she would need to improve to be competitive. However, she won the first three starts of her career including two stakes, one at Del Mar, so that type of improvement is not out of the question. Karakatsie ran the best race of her career last month when second and beaten a neck in the Martha Washington Stakes at Gulfstream Park, earning a 98 figure. She is on a pattern for more improvement in her third start off a layoff and she is sired by Breeders' Cup Mile winner Karakontie so may have what it takes to be in the mix here. Closing Remarks has finished first or second in five of seven races including her last four. All four were stakes on turf and in one of those, the Providencia Stakes, Closing Remarks was only a neck behind Going Global (IRE) so she has shown enough to be respected when considering exacta wagers in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Dramatizer (80), Founder's Day (83), Freedom Flyer (84), Jibber Jabber (IRE) (88), Pizzazz (89) and Tetragonal (IRE) (93).

San Clemente Stakes –$200,000, Grade 2
Race 10 at Del Mar, Saturday, July 24, Post Time 9:30 p.m. ET
One Mile on Turf; Fillies, Three Years Old

Win Contenders:
Nimbostratus (FR)
Going Global (IRE)
Equilove (IRE)

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase

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