Ellis Starr | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Zero Tolerance The One To Beat In Autumn Miss

This Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Autumn Miss Stakes at Santa Anita Park brings together a field of eight 3-year-old fillies traversing a mile on the turf. Six of the eight have won either their most recent race or the one right before that and all eight fillies have been stakes placed at least once to date.

Madone is the most accomplished in terms of earnings at $367,800 with some of that earned when winning the G2 San Clemente Stakes at this mile turf trip in July.
Spanish Loveaffair is also a graded stakes winner, having captured the G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes in February and more recently the non-graded Pebbles Stakes last month in New York.
Zero Tolerance stretches out to a mile off a win in the Unzip Me Stakes over the course just 27 days ago and is tied for the most lightly raced filly in the field, having run just three times.
Ego Trip (IRE) is the other filly making just her fourth career start and finished third in the G2 Lake Placid Stakes in August, which was her most recent race.
Eddie's New Dream finished second in the Melair Stakes on dirt in June and recently won strongly on the grass, while Freedom Flyer missed by a head in the California Oaks this past April.
Burgoo Alley (IRE) was third behind Zero Tolerance in the Unzip Me and also stretches out, having won at a mile on turf just before that.
Javanica missed by less than a length in the G3 Jimmy Durante Stakes and by the same margin in the Blue Norther Stakes last November and December, and returns from two months off following a sixth place effort in the G1 Del Mar Oaks.

I believe strongly Zero Tolerance is the one to beat in this year's Autumn Miss Stakes, even over multiple stakes winner Madone. Zero Tolerance missed by a nose in a big effort when rallying from eighth of 10 in her career debut this past August in a sprint. Improving nicely 19 days later, she won on dirt then moving back to turf for the Unzip Me Stakes on Oct. 3 at the distance of six and one-half furlongs on turf. In that race, Zero Tolerance rallied from sixth of seven in the early stages to win going away. That effort earned her a career best 98 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure and logical improvement in only the fourth start of her career puts her at, or above, the 104 field high figures Spanish Loveaffair earned winning the Pebbles Stakes and the 104 figure Madone earned winning the San Clemente Stakes.

There is no doubt in my mind Zero Tolerance can stretch out to a mile and run a winning race, given her dam Torreadora also produced multiple stakes winner El Tormenta, who won the 2019 Grade 1, $1 million Woodbine Mile Stakes. Santa Anita leading jockey Flavien Prat was in the saddle as Zero Tolerance won her last two race and rides back and that is another reason this filly gets top billing in this situation.

Madone has won five of nine races in her careen, including two of three on the Santa Anita turf and four of eight stakes tries. Her best career effort came in July when winning the San Clemente Stakes at the distance of the Autumn Miss and earning a career-best 104 ™ figure. However, her most recent two races were some of her poorest efforts, first when fifth in the Del Mar Oaks, then when fifth in the Jockey Club Oaks Invitational last month in New York. Then again, neither of those was a mile, the distance of the San Clemente which Madone returns to. Additionally, the Del Mar Oaks was a Grade 1 race and although not yet graded, the Jockey Club Oaks is going to be a Grade 1 race in the future. As such, the drop to this G3 level and the return to a mile and to a turf course she has had success over in the past bode well for Madone regaining top form.

Honorable mention goes to Burgoo Alley (IRE) and Javanica, and I would consider both for any exacta tickets played. Burgoo Alley (IRE) won at Santa Anita in a turf sprint this past June, in her second start since importing from Ireland. She stretched out to two turns next and ran two “A” races in a row, first beaten a head with a 101 figure then winning an allowance race at a mile with a stakes quality 103 figure. She then stumbled at the start of the Unzip Me to be last of seven, rushed up to third, fell back to fifth, then re-rallied for third.

Javanica finished second in a pair of stakes last fall and winter on this circuit with big efforts then tried dirt in the Santa Anita Oaks. When that experiment failed, she moved back to grass for the Senorita Stakes at a mile on turf in May but ran into a ton of traffic trouble and was eventually moved up from sixth to fifth after another horse was disqualified for interference. Returning in July, Javanica earned a career-best 101 figure with a win then faded to fifth after leading from the start in the Del Mar Oaks. Freshened again, she has potential to run as well as she did in July and could be a contender.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Eddie's New Dreams (86), Ego Trip (94), Freedom Flyer (88) and Spanish Loveaffair (104).

Win Contenders:
Zero Tolerance
Madone

Autumn Miss Stakes – Grade 3
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, Oct. 30 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Fillies, Three Years Old
Purse: $100,000

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Equibase Analysis: Empress Josephine Could Rule In QEII Challenge Cup

A strong field of 10 three-year-old fillies is assembled for Saturday's Grade 1, $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland. This race is an “invitation only” event and drew eight horses which have been running in North America plus two coming in from Europe off good efforts in stakes.

In terms of achievements, Shantisara (IRE) could be considered first based on money earned as she's just $12,000 short of a half-million dollars, the majority of that earned winning the non-graded but very classy $700,000 Jockey Club Oaks Invitational last month at Belmont Park.

Then there's Empress Josephine (IRE), who along with Nicest (IRE) has faced the toughest competition of any horse in the field. Empress Josephine (IRE) won the Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas in May and comes back on six days rest after finishing third last week in the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes at Keeneland. Nicest (IRE) finished third in the Irish Oaks when last seen in mid-July and the horse that won the race is top European filly Snowfall, who recently finished sixth against some of the toughest males in the world in the Group 1 Prix De l'Arc de Triomphe.

Technical Analysis (IRE) enters this race off a victory in the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes, while Flippant just won the Virginia Oaks at the distance of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. Closing Remarks is another who has been competitive in top company as she finished second in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks in her most recent race. Burning Ambition is yet another recent stakes winner, having captured the Indiana Grand Stakes last month.

Cloudy Dawn (IRE) makes her North American debut and when last seen in August she was victorious in the Group 3 Prix de Lieurey so is another not to be taken lightly. Queen Goddess and Lady Speightspeare both enter this race off allowance wins and for Lady Speightspeare it was her first start following nearly a year away from the races. Just prior to the layoff she won the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes.

Empress Josephine (IRE) has the best credentials in the field and one of the best ™ Equibase® Speed Figure earned by any filly in this group, a 113 when third last week in the First Lady Stakes at a shorter distance on the Keeneland Turf. In that race Empress Josephine (IRE) raced mid-pack in sixth of 12 in the early stages and steadily made up ground to finish third, just a half-length from the runner-up, with the winner another half-length in front. She had just run four weeks earlier in Ireland when fourth of 13, beaten a head for second, in the very important Group 1 Matron Stakes. That effort earned a 115 figure and she had earned a 114 figure in May when winning the Irish 1000 Guineas.

No other horse in the field, except Nicest (IRE), has broken through the 110 figure threshold so considering Empress Josephine (IRE) has done it three times this season, she appears to be the one to beat. As a daughter of amazing sire Galileo, Empress Josephine (IRE) should appreciate the extra eighth of a mile and she adds blinkers as well, likely suggested by top jockey John Velazquez, who returns to ride after being aboard last weekend. There's also no concern about the filly returning so quickly because her trainer is one of the best in the world in Aiden O'Brien, who according to a Race Lens query has only run two horses back on a week's rest in the past five years. One of those was Athena, who won the 2018 Belmont Oaks easily off a similarly short respite. Even more significant is the fact that Together (IRE), who was a daughter of Galileo and who was trained by O'Brien, finished second in the 2011 First Lady Stakes then went on to win the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup one week later.

Flippant may be a live longshot candidate although she has won three races in a row, two of those stakes races. Flippant won the Preview Dueling Grounds Oaks Stakes in August with a 98 ™figure then improved to 100 at the end of August when victorious in the Virginia Oaks at the same nine furlong trip of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. In the Virginia Oaks, Flippant put in a furious rally from 11th with a quarter mile to go and was never really asked as she lengthened her stride to win going away. The 100 figure earned is a far cry from any of the three best figures Empress Josephine (IRE) has earned but Flippant has the pattern to improve, and the breeding to run very well. The Race Lens report on her dam, Frivolous, shows that mare won the Grade 1 Fleur de Lis Stakes at this distance on dirt as well as won on turf, and the report on her sire Tapit shows me his daughter Time and Motion won the 2016 edition of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup so there is a lot of potential for this filly to run well.

Cloudy Dawn (IRE) and Nicest (IRE) are both nice fillies who have faced some tough competition in Europe and who could both have a say in the outcome of this race. Cloudy Dawn (IRE) just won a group three stakes in Europe, the equivalent of a grade two stakes in North American, and she was flattered when the runner-up came back to win her next race. Trainer William Haggas hasn't started many horses in North America in the past few years but one of them was Call to Mind, owned by Her Majesty the Queen, who shipped in to win the 2018 Belmont Gold Cup. Nicest (IRE) has been facing top company just like Empress Josephine (IRE) and that alone warrants consideration as a contender. She finished third of 13 in the Ribblesdale Stakes in June at Royal Ascot and followed that up with a third place finish behind top European three year old Snowfall in the Irish Oaks in mid-July. That last effort earned a 116 Equibase Figure and if she can repeat or improve off that effort nearly three months later she could certainly be in the thick of the action at the wire in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Burning Ambition (83), Closing Remarks (101), Lady Speightspeare (98), Queen Goddess (91), Shantisara (IRE) (101) and Technical Analysis (IRE) (100).

Top Win Contender:
Empress Josephine

Other contenders:
Flippant
Cloudy Dawn (IRE)
Nicest (IRE)

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes presented by Dixiana – Grade 1
Race 8 at Keeneland
Saturday, Sept. 16 – Post Time 4:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth on Turf
Fillies, Three Years Old
Purse: $500,000

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Keeneland at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and most online wagering sites.

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Equibase Analysis: Vertical Threat Can Lead All The Way In Santa Anita Sprint Championship

This Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes is a “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Although only drawing a field of six, there is not one horse entered who is without a chance to succeed.

Leading the field is C Z Rocket, who has earned nearly $1.5 million while winning 11 of 28 races in his career, including the 2020 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes.
Flagstaff was beaten a head in last year's edition of the race and has done little wrong in his last four races, winning the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes in May and most recently finishing third and a head behind runner-up C Z Rocket in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Stakes.
The third place finisher last year was Collusion Illusion, who had won the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes one month earlier. After taking eight months off following a third place finish last December in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes, Collusion Illusion most recently finished seventh while trying turf for the first time in the Grade 3 Green Flash Handicap and could improve back on the surface where he has won five of eight races in his career.
Vertical Threat has won four of five dirt sprints in his career, three of those stakes including the Steel Valley Sprint last November and most recently the Russel Road Stakes.
Dr. Schivel, the only 3-year-old in the field, won the Bing Crosby this year as Collusion Illusion had done last year at the same age before finishing third in this race. Winner of four races in a row after losing his first two, Dr. Schivel appears to be on the verge of another top effort.
Colt Fiction rounds out the field. Runner-up in the Thor's Echo Stakes for California bred horses only in June, he enters the Santa Anita Sprint Championship off a victory against softer foes in an allowance race.

As mentioned previously, Vertical Threat is a perfect four for five in dirt sprints. Three of those three wins came at the six furlong distance of the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. The fastest of those came last November when leading from start to finish to draw off by seven and one-half lengths in the Steel Valley Sprint, earning a career-best 118 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure on par with the 117 figure C Z Rocket earned winning this race last year. Although this field is composed of some top sprinters, none has the early speed of Vertical Threat, which he not only used to win the Steel Valley Sprint but also most recently when winning the Russell Road Stakes. Leading from start to finish on fast fractions for the track at Charles Town, Vertical Threat still pulled away late to win by three and one-half lengths.

Cutting back from seven furlongs to the six furlong trip he so dearly loves, and making his third start after returning from an eight month layoff, I have little doubt jockey Abel Cedillo is going to put Vertical Threat on the lead and play “come catch me” with the field. Considering those tactics were successful in the colt's last two wins and considering the 118 figure earned in one of them is good enough to win in this field, Vertical Threat may be very tough to beat in this situation.

C Z Rocket was claimed for a fairly paltry $40,000 in April of 2020, compared to the more than $1 million he's earned since then winning seven of 10 races. He won the 2020 Pat O'Brien Stakes at Del Mar with a 110 ™ figure before a career-best 117 figure in last year's Santa Anita Sprint Championship. Not disgraced one bit following that when second in the 2020 Breeders' Cup Sprint, C Z Rocket returned in March to win the Hot Springs Stakes (111 figure) and the Count Fleet Stakes (114 figure) and has run well in three races since, all graded stakes, without winning. It's possible the seven year old has lost a step but on the other hand considering he's on the same pattern as before winning last year's edition of this race by cutting back from seven furlongs to six, he must be respected as a contender.

Flagstaff won the Commonwealth Stakes at seven furlongs in April and the Churchill Downs Stakes in May then cut back to six and one half furlongs and ran in to a buzzsaw in Firenze Fire when second in the True North Stakes with a 110 figure in June. Rested nearly three months while pointing to his race, Flagstaff was only a head behind C Z Rocket in the Pat O'Brien and so is on the same pattern he was last year when second in the Pat O'Brien behind C Z Rocket before losing by a head to the same horse in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. That effort tied a career-best 117 figure earned when beaten a neck in the Palos Verdes Stakes in January of 2020 at this six furlong trip. Cutting back a furlong while making his second start off a layoff just as he did when almost winning this race last year, Flagstaff has a strong chance to add to his seven for 21 record on dirt and $1 million in career earnings.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Collusion Illusion (114), Colt Fiction (110) and Dr. Schivel (109).

Win Contenders:
Vertical Threat
C Z Rocket
Flagstaff

Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes – Grade 2
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, October 2 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $200,000

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Equibase Analysis: Speaker’s Corner Poised To Upset Pennsylvania Derby

The Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby, which took a hiatus last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, is back and better than ever for 2021. Nine horses are likely to run, including Grade 1 Kentucky Derby third place finisher Hot Rod Charlie, who crossed the finish line first in the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes in July only to be disqualified for interference and placed last of seven.

Keepmeinmind and Bourbonic, respectively the seventh and 13th place Kentucky Derby finishers, are winless in six races combined since then and hope to improve back to top form, although it must be noted Keepmeinmind was only beaten a half-length for the win in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes in July by Essential Quality, who is bypassing this race after winning the Grade 1 Travers Stakes one month ago.

Fourth place Jim Dandy finisher Weyburn earned the biggest victory of his career this past March in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes but has only managed fourth place finishes in his two tries at this mile and one-eighth distance.

Midnight Bourbon improved off a sixth place effort in the Kentucky Derby to finish second in the Preakness, then did not finish the Haskell after losing his jockey when Hot Rod Charlie drifted into his path in the stretch. He enters the race off a strong runner-up effort, beaten a neck, to Essential Quality in the Travers.

Next comes a quartet of horses which have never run in the same races the other five have run. Fulsome just won the Grade 3 Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx and earlier this year took the Oaklawn Stakes at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby so must be respected. Recent double stakes winner Americanrevolution is another horse deserving a close look as he won the Albany Stakes at this distance four weeks ago. I Am Redeemed has won three of four career start including the Storm Cat Stakes at Parx last month, while Speaker's Corner stretches out to two turns for the first time and runs in a stakes race off a very strong win at Saratoga last month.

Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit was entered but will not run in this race per an announcement Tuesday, Sept. 21.

Main contenders to win:

Trainer Bill Mott is in the Hall-of-Fame for many reasons, and one of those is his ability to know when a horse in his care is talented enough to compete at the top level. With that in mind, Speaker's Corner is my top choice to win this year's Pennsylvania Derby.

Speaker's Corner is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just three times. He debuted a little over one year ago and finished third then improved sensationally off the experience to win last October. Whatever kept him away from the races from last fall until last month is irrelevant now as Speaker's Corner returned on Aug. 14 to win impressively beating older horses at the distance of seven furlongs, which is a difficult task off a long layoff.

Jose Ortiz rode Speaker's Corner for the first time last month and returns again with a colt that is highly likely to take a big step up second off the layoff just as he did in his second career start. Considering Speaker's Corner earned a 107 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure with the effort last month, he could easily run faster than favorites Hot Rod Charlie (113 in July) and Midnight Bourbon (109 last month). In addition to the physical and mental improvement expected in his second start off a layoff, we can also expect Speaker's Corner to improve based on Bill Mott's record when stretching a horse out from sprint to a route off in its second start off a layoff in the past two years.

Specifically with 3-year-olds like Speaker's Corner, Mott did this with Candy Man Rocket when saddling him to victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes this winter, and with Art Collector just last month in the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga. Additionally, owner/breeder Godolphin, whose Essential Quality is one of the top 3-year-olds of 2021, is on a hot streak as they owned the winners of the Summer Stakes, the Natalma Stakes, the Pattison Canadian International and the Jockey Club Derby Invitational last weekend. As such, it may be very difficult to pass on Speaker's Corner as a win bet at high odds in this year's Pennsylvania Derby.

Americanrevolution is also likely to go to the gate at high odds, even though he has a perfect three-for-three record in 2021. Moving to the barn of Todd Pletcher for his first start of the year and second of his career and following eight months off, Americanrevolution won a sprint then when stretching out to two turns improved dramatically for a seven length win in the New York Derby. Better still, in the Albany Stakes last month at Saratoga and at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby, Americanrevolution won in a hand ride by five lengths to earn a 108 ™ figure which is logically going to be improved upon on his current pattern.

Jockey Luis Saez, who recently captured the Saratoga riding title against the strongest jockey colony in North America, has been aboard for all three of the colt's wins to date and will be in the saddle once again. A son of Constitution, whose Tiz the Law won four graded stakes as a three year old last year, Americanrevolution has tremendous potential to run well in this race and I would not hesitate to bet him to win in addition to Speaker's Corner if the odds are high.

Hot Rod Charlie is a street fighter of a horse, with a very strong competitive instinct backed up with great ability. First, second, or third in seven straight races, Hot Rod Charlie has never lost his physical edge since last October when earning his first win. Beaten one length when third in the Kentucky Derby and earning a career-best 109 figure in the process, Hot Rod Charlie battled head-and-head for most of the last half-mile in the often grueling Belmont Stakes five weeks later, beaten a bit over a length and 11 lengths clear of third place finisher Rombauer, who had just posted the upset win in the Preakness three weeks earlier. Then, in the Haskell Stakes in mid-July, Hot Rod Charlie did everything asked when beating Mandaloun by a nose, but was disqualified and placed last for drifting in with an eighth of a mile to go and in the steward's view causing Midnight Bourbon to trip and lose his jockey. That effort earned Hot Rod Charlie the best last race Equibase Figure in the field 113 which, if repeated, would make him very tough to beat. That is, if Speaker's Corner and Americanrevolution don't continue their patterns of improvement and run faster.

Midnight Bourbon has only won two of 11 career races, finishing second in four others. The best of those four came in his most recent race last month in the Travers. After leading from the start in an otherwise paceless race, Midnight Bourbon dug in and went head-and-head with Essential Quality for the entire last eighth of a mile, coming up a neck short and earning a 109 figure. Certainly if he can repeat that effort in the Pennsylvania Derby, Midnight Bourbon could be in the thick of the action at the finish.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Bourbonic (100), Fulsome (102), I Am Redeemed (111), Keepmeinmind (106) and Weyburn (109).

Win contenders:
Speaker's Corner
Americanrevolution
Hot Rod Charlie

Must use on exacta tickets and could possibly win:
Midnight Bourbon

Pennsylvania Derby – Grade 1
Race 12 at Parx Racing
Saturday September 25 – Post Time 5:49 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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