Ellis Starr | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Olympiad Should Get The Gold In Cigar Mile

The Grade 1, $750,000 Cigar Mile Handicap is always a race to look forward to as we enter December, and the 2021 edition is no different. In terms of achievements, the field of eight is led by multiple graded stakes winner Code of Honor, with $2.9 million in career earnings. However, Code of Honor has run just four times this year and his only win came in the Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes in August. Independence Hall enters the race off a win in the Grade 2 Fayette Stakes at the end of October, but similar to Code of Honor has just that one win to his credit in 2021 (from six races). Ginobili may be bringing the best recent credentials into this year's Cigar Mile as he just finished second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile following a win in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Stakes.

Then there's a pair of horses untried at this level in Americanrevolution and Olympiad. Americanrevolution just won the Empire Classic Stakes by 11 ¾ lengths, while Olympiad won an allowance race in mid-October. Plainsman won the Grade 3 Ack Ack Stakes at the beginning of October before a disappointing third place effort as the favorite in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Handicap at the end of the month. Following Sea won the Grade 2 Vosburgh Stakes the second week of October then finished third of nine in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint and may find these opponents a bit easier. Pipeline rounds out the field as a colt who earned his first career win in September before a third place finish in the Perryville Stakes in October.

Top three win contenders:
Olympiad is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just four races to date. Two were in 2020 as a 2-year-old where he finished third before winning by nearly three lengths last summer at Saratoga. For whatever reason Olympiad was given a year off by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, and similar to his career debut 13 months earlier the colt was a bit short of 100% as he finished second this September. His next race and his most recent on October 14 was telling, as Olympiad controlled the pace in front from start to finish but even more notably held off a dogged rival throughout the stretch to win.

Improving to a career best 106 Equibase Speed Figure from 103 one month earlier, Olympiad appears to be on a pattern to take a big step forward. Jockey Joel Rosario, who rode Following Sea to victory in the Vosburgh Stakes in October as well as rode Plainsman to win the Ack Ack Stakes that same month, has never ridden Olympiad but gets aboard for the first time. This is significant in my opinion because Rosario, whose 2021 earnings stand at $32.9 million, is on a path to break the all-time yearly record for a jockey which stands at $34.1 million. As such, every mount through the end of the year takes on added significance and so Rosario's choice of riding Olympiad in a race where the winner's share of the purse is $450,000 is yet another reason I think this colt can post the upset and win the Cigar Mile Handicap.

Ginobili enters the Cigar Mile out of the toughest last race of any in the field where he was not disgraced when second of eight in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile behind Life Is Good. In that race, Life Is Good was sent to the front on fractions that would be impossible for most horses to maintain but won by almost six lengths. Ginobili raced in fifth and fourth in the early stages before showing a burst of speed to get to second, and was even lapped on the winner before Life is Good drew off in the stretch. That effort earned a 111 Equibase figure which was rock solid. Previous to that, Ginobili earned a 110 figure effort winning the Pat O'Brien Stakes in August and shows this horse has what it takes physically and mentally to win this race.

Following Sea is another coming out of a big race, the Breeders' Cup Sprint, where he finished third of nine. Although passed in the stretch by winner Aloha West, Following Sea had some traffic issues in the race as he was on the rail on the far turn and early in the stretch but lost his path. Jockey John Velazquez, who rides again in the Cigar Mile, had to angle the horse off the rail to find a path and although the momentum Following Sea had lost earlier could not be totally regained, he did surge late to get third and earn a 107 Equibase figure. One race earlier in the Vosburgh Stakes, Following Sea earned a career-best 117 figure which is one of the best in the field. One slight question is whether he will like this one-mile trip he is running for the first time as much as those two six furlongs sprints. Other than that, Following Sea appears to have what it takes to contend for top honors in the Cigar Mile.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Americanrevolution (117), Code of Honor (120), Independence Hall (109), Pipeline (104) and Plainsman (107).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Olympiad
Ginobili
Following Sea

Cigar Mile Handicap presented by NYRA Bets– Grade 1
Race 10 at Aqueduct
Saturday, December 4 – Post Time 4:13 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $750,000

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase.

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Equibase Analysis: Lightly-Raced Price Talk Rates Highest In Red Smith

This Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Red Smith Stakes drew a field of 10 running 11 furlongs on the Aqueduct turf course. Although it is a grade two race, there are few in the field proven at the level and/or distance.

One of those is Tide of the Sea, who on the Grade 2 William L. McKnight Stakes this past January and more recently won the Japan Turf Cup Stakes in October at a similar distance.
Another who is proven at the level is Channel Cat, who leads the field in career earnings at $1.4 million, including when victorious in the Grade 1 Man o' War Stakes at this distance on grass in May. However, Channel Cat has lost three races since then and the Man o' War was his only win this year (from six starts), with his last win before that coming in July, 2019.
Soldier Rising (GB) may fit with these based on his runner-up effort to eventual Breeders' Cup Turf winner Yabir in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational in September. However, his most recent effort was a disappointing fifth of 11 when favored in the Grade 2 Hill Prince Stakes last month.
Serve the King (GB) enters the Red Smith in excellent recent form, having won the John's Call Stakes one before last and then finishing second in the Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational last month.
Shamrocket won the Point of Entry Stakes at a mile and one-half just one month ago and might be up to the task moving into graded stakes company.
Price Talk beat Shamrocket prior to the Point of Entry and is another untried at the distance but he has won two in a row.
No Word was competitive at the level when second this past summer in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch Handicap but that was at a much shorter distance and he has never run farther than one mile and one-quarter.
Another who has never run the distance is Sanctuary City, but he did finish second in the Mohawk Stakes in his most recent start.
Corelli won the Grade 3 Singspiel Stakes at 10 furlongs on turf in August and may fit at this grade two level. He also may enjoy the longer distance as he missed by a head in a mile and one-half race in England before importing to the U.S. last year.
Value Engineering has never raced in a stakes but enters the race off a win and the one time he ran at this mile and three-eighths trip he missed winning by just a head on the wire.

Main contenders:

Given there are knocks with the horses likely to be favored by bettors, such as Soldier Rising (GB), who has yet to win in three U.S. starts, particularly when as the eight to five favorite last month in the Hill Prince Stakes, and with Tide of the Sea, who won the Japan Turf Cup takes in October but was beaten as the seven to five favorite last month in the Point of Entry Stakes, I'll go with Price Talk to win this year's Red Smith Stakes.

First, Price Talk is the second most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just eight times, but he's won four of those eight races, including two in a row. Price Talk won the first three races of his career, including when breaking his maiden at first asking, then breaking his maiden again after being disqualified from the first win. Last November, in only the fourth start of his career, Price Talk finished third in the Gio Ponti Stakes on the Aqueduct Turf, but when returning this spring did not run well in two races thereafter. Dropped into a claiming race in August, Price Talk won with a career-best 108 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure which was a stakes quality effort, as compared to the 109 figure Shamrocket earned winning the Point of Entry Stakes last month, the 106 figure Corelli earned winning the Singspiel Stakes in August and the 105 figure Serve the King (GB) earned when second in the Turf Classic Invitational last month.

Price Talk then bettered himself with a 113 figure winning near the end of September, in what turned out to a productive race from which Shamrocket came out of to win the Point of Entry. That 113 figure is tied for the best earned by any horse in this field in 2021 with the figure Channel Cat earned winning the Man o' War Stakes in May. As such, just repeating it is good enough to win the Red Smith, but I feel he may even better that effort and figure as this will be his third start off a layoff.

Serve the King (GB) has done very little wrong in 10 career starts, like Price Talk having won four times in his career. After winning the John's Call Stakes at the longer distance of one mile and five-eighths with a career-best 107 ™ figure, Serve the King (GB) finished well from sixth to second in the tougher Turf Classic Invitational with a similar 105 figure effort. Irad Ortiz, Jr. was aboard for both of the horse's “A” efforts and rides back in the Red Smith, giving Serve the King (GB) a strong chance for another competitive effort good enough to win.

Shamrocket has more second place finishes (6) in his 20 race career than wins (4), and even more third place finishes (7). Still, his win last month in the Point of Entry Stakes at a mile and one-half earned a career-best 109 figure competitive with the best in this field. Javier Castellano was aboard for that win, and for the colt's last win before that in June so that is a positive sign particularly as Castellano rode Value Engineering to victory last month as well as Price Talk in his two most recent wins. As such, Shamrocket rounds out a trio of horses I think stand out against the other seven in terms of their probability to win this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Channel Cat (113), Corelli (106), No Word (103), Sanctuary City (107), Soldier Rising (GB) (110), Tide of the Sea (105) and Value Engineering (107).

Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Price Talk
Serve the King (GB)
Shamrocket

Red Smith Stakes – Grade 2
Race 9 at Aqueduct
Saturday, November 20 – Post Time 3:43 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three-Eighths on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $200,000

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Equibase Analysis: Aug Lutes, Gidgetta Have The Edge In Bessarabian

This Saturday's Grade 2, $175,000 Bessarabian Stakes brings together a strong field of nine fillies and mares running seven furlongs on the all-weather Tapeta surface at Woodbine. All seven finished third or better in their most recent races, with five emerging victorious in those starts over the past two months.

Both Aug Lutes and Our Secret Agent earned their recent wins in stakes races, with Aug Lutes' win coming in the Glen Cove Stakes at the distance of the Bessarabian Stakes but on turf, while Our Secret Agent won the Hendrie Stakes on the Woodbine Main track at the slightly shorter distance of six and one-half furlongs.
Gidgetta ships into the barn of top trainer Josie Carroll after having won on turf in California last month in a very highly rated race which suggests she fits with these.
Lady Speightspeare, who is undefeated in three starts, won the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes on grass in September, 2020 then returned from nearly a year away from the races this September to win easily.
Emmeline may have just earned her first career win last month, in her ninth career start but finished second in both the Bison City Stakes and Woodbine Oaks prior to that so is another who appears to fit on all counts in this field.
Juxtapose enters the race off a third place finish in the Grade 3 Ontario Matron Stakes four weeks ago, and leads the field in career wins with six, from 13 starts.
La Libertee finished third in the Hendrie Stakes behind Our Secret Agent after a troubled start and can improve.
Spun Glass ships in from Maryland for trainer Michael Trombetta, who also saddles Aug Lutes, and won the only time she raced on an all-weather surface previously.
Last but certainly not least is Tuned, who just won the All Along Stakes on turf at Laurel for her third straight win.

Main win contenders:

Even with so many of the eight entrants proven in stakes or entering the race off top efforts, Aug Lutes and Gidgetta appear to have a significant edge over the rest based on their most recent efforts. Aug Lutes gets slight preference of the pair, not only because she has won four of five career races and finished second in the other, but because she's on a pattern for significant improvement off a career-best 102 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure earned last month posting the 19-1 upset in the Glen Cove Stakes at Belmont. That race, her first ever on turf, was run at the same seven furlong distance of the Bessarabian. Right before that Aug Lutes rallied from 10th to second in the Duchess Stakes at this seven furlong trip on the Tapeta main track at Woodbine. Jockey Antonio Gallardo, who is one of the top jockeys at Woodbine, rode Aug Lutes to that win at Presque Isle Downs in September, which followed a 10 month layoff, then rode her again in the Duchess. Likely to take another step forward as a lightly raced three year old, off the pattern of figures from 88 to 95 to 102, and proven to love the all-weather main track surface, Aug Lutes may be very tough to beat in this race.

That being said, Gidgetta may give Aug Lutes all she can handle if she takes to the surface as it appears she might based on her two recent workouts after shipping in from California. Never worse than third in five sprint races this year on turf, Gidgetta earned a career-best 108 ™ figure when finishing second in May, then two races later in a sprint earned a 105 figure before a 104 figure effort winning by a nose last month. Owned and bred by famous sports radio host Jim Rome (Jungle Racing), Gidgetta is showing every sign of running as well on the Tapeta all-weather surface as she did on turf. In her first local workout on October 30, Gidgetta worked :47.8 for a half-mile which was the 13th best of 90 workouts at the distance on the day. Then, in her most recent workout on November 8, the filly worked the same half-mile in a scintillating 47 flat which was the best workout of the day for the distance. With Patrick Husbands getting on for top trainer Josie Carroll and with it likely Gidgetta is going to run another “A” race like her last four sprints, the stretch run of this race between her and Aug Lutes promises to be very exciting.

Our Secret Agent has to be considered a contender to win as well. Her consistent career record of 3-6-3 in 12 career sprint races tells us she shows up with a competitive effort every time. As part of that record, Our Secret Agent finished third in the 2020 Bessarabian as well as second in the 2020 Duchess Stakes (with a career-best 100 figure), the same race Aug Lutes finished second in this year. Our Secret Agent also just won the Hendrie Stakes at the slightly shorter distance of six and one-half furlongs last month. The addition of blinkers for that race appears to have made a big difference, as did the jockey change to Kazushi Kimura, who had not ridden the filly since July of 2020, also to victory. With her last two sprint efforts yielding 98 and 99 figures not too far from the best efforts of Gidgetta and Aug Lutes, Our Secret Agent may have what it takes to win this race and even if she doesn't win she is highly probable to finish second or third as she's done so many times previously.
.
The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Emmeline (101), Juxtapose (100), La Libertee (91), Lady Speightspeare (98), Spun Glass (96) and Tuned (104).

Win Contenders:
Aug Lutes
Gidgetta
Our Secret Agent

Bessarabian Stakes – Grade 2
Race 8 at Woodbine
Saturday, N0vember 13 – Post Time 5:16 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
Fillies and Mares, Three Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $175,000

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Equibase Analysis: Knicks Go Should Lead Classic Field On A Merry Chase

The 38^th running of the Grade 1, $6 million Longines Breeders' Cup Classic drew a field of nine, including 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit, who enters the race off a win last month in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes.

Hot Rod Charlie and Essential Quality, who finished third and fourth in the Derby, respectively, have both come a long way since then as Hot Rod Charlie won the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby and Essential Quality won the Grade 1 Travers Stakes in their most recent races. Another with top credentials is Art Collector, winner of the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes last month for his third straight stakes win. Then there's Max Player, riding a two-race winning streak at the Classic distance consisting of the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes in July followed by the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.

The aforementioned quintet are likely to be chasing Knicks Go from the onset. Riding a three-race winning streak including the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes, Knicks Go is a 5-year-old with field high earnings of $5.5 million and is unlikely to yield to any of them from the moment the gates open. Stilleto Boy earned the biggest stakes win of his career when winning the Iowa Derby in July but has been beaten soundly by Medina Spirit in two straight races, Similarly, Express Train, who won the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap in July at Del Mar, finished seven lengths behind Medina Spirit in the Awesome Again. Tripoli rounds out the field. Winner of the Grade 1 Pacific Classic in August, he was beaten eight lengths while never threatening in the Awesome Again last month.

Top three win contenders (in probability/preference order):

Knicks Go has an edge over the other eight horses in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic because of his running style. Knicks Go has had the lead from the start in his last eight races, consisting of seven wins. As such, the trainers of the other eight horses can strategize all they want about how the race can be won by their charges, but one thing is certain and that is if any of the other entrants try to fight for the early lead with Knicks Go they are likely to be severely compromising their own chances of success.

On the other hand, if Knicks Go is left unabated on the front end, he is likely to get into a steady rhythm and will not allow any other horse to get within a length of him in the last quarter mile. Since returning from a trip half way across the world to compete in the Saudi Cup in February and being short of 100% when fourth in the Metropolitan Handicap in June, Knicks Go has reeled off three straight impressive victories with Equibase Speed Figures of 118, 117 and 115. Jockey Joel Rosario, who has been in the saddle aboard Knicks Go for his last six wins, fits the horse perfectly by allowing him to get into a fluid stride and do his thing, which once again in the Breeders' Cup Classic should be to control the tempo on fast fractions from the start and never look back.

Art Collector and Max Player are both likely to be taking up stalking positions behind Knicks Go shortly after the start as that has been their successful strategy in winning key Classic prep races this summer and fall. Art Collector has won three straight since moving to the care of Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott this summer, with each effort better than the rest. After winning the Alydar Stakes in August with a 110 figure, Art Collector improved to 115 in the Charles Town Classic then to a career-best 120 figure effort in the Woodward Stakes last month. Although he led from start to finish in two of those three races, in the Charles Town Classic Art Collector stalked the early leader in second before forging to the front in the last eighth of a mile. Therefore if Knicks Go can be passed in the final stages of this race, Art Collector is one of those who may be able to go by the early leader and post the upset.

Max Player has also run career-best races in his most recent starts. After returning from an 11^th place finish in the Saudi Cup, Max Player finished a poor sixth in the Pimlico Special in May but rebounded nicely to win the Suburban Stakes at the distance of the Classic in July. Earning a career-best 113 figure with that effort, Max Player duplicated it when winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup in September with the same figure. In both races, under jockey Ricardo Santana Jr., who will ride again in the Classic, Max Player sat in second in the early stages then pounced on the leader before drawing off, doing so by four lengths in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in a decisive effort in his most recent win.

About the rest:

Essential Quality is eight for nine in his career, his lone defeat coming when a troubled fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Although beaten just one length by Medina Spirit for the win and just a head behind Hot Rod Charlie for third place, Essential Quality proved he belongs with the best in that race. Winning the Belmont Stakes five weeks later, then the Jim Dandy Stakes at the end of July, Essential Quality earned very similar figures of 107 to 109. Stretching out to the Classic distance for the Travers Stakes in August, Essential Quality once again ran professionally while battling head and head with Midnight Bourbon for the last eighth of a mile, coming out on top by a neck with a 109 figure. That 109 figure might be the issue with this talented colt in the Classic. Not only is Essential Quality coming back from the longest period of rest of any horse in the field (more than two months), he also has not improved his figures throughout his three year old campaign where significant improvement is needed to get to the 118 to 120 figure threshold it is going to take to win this race.

Hot Rod Charlie ran the best race of his career when victorious in the Pennsylvania Derby near the end of September, earning a 120 figure in the process while easily defeating Midnight Bourbon, who had battled down to the wire with Essential Quality one month earlier. On the other hand, Hot Rod Charlie puts blinkers back on for the Classic and it appears to me that when wearing blinkers for six straight races from October of last year through the Belmont he either ran evenly in the last eighth of a mile, or lost ground to the winner in the final stages. The first of two examples of that came when he was only a head behind Essential Quality in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile entering the stretch before finishing three-quarters of a length behind at the finish, and the other was when he was a head from Essential Quality in the Belmont with an eighth of a mile to run but one and one-quarter lengths behind him at the end.

Next we come to Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit. Never worse than third in nine career starts, Medina Spirit ran the best race of his career in the Derby with a 110 figure. Regressing to a much lower 95 figure effort when third in the Preakness, Medina Spirit won the non-graded Shared Belief Stakes in August after three months off with a 105 figure then improved to win the Awesome Again Stakes last month back to the 110 figure from the Derby. The problem Medina Spirit may have in this year's Classic is he has led from the start in his last four races, starting with the Derby. Being as Medina Spirit is unlikely to run as fast in the early stages as Knicks Go, he will be asked to take up a stalking position in the Classic and if his previous efforts from off the pace are any indication, Medina Spirit isn't as good from that position as he is on the lead. For example, when fourth in the early stages of the Santa Anita Derby in April, Medina Spirit could only manage second at the end and was beaten four lengths and the same thing happened previous to that when second and eight lengths behind the winner in the San Felipe Stakes.

Tripoli won the Pacific Classic Stakes at this distance in August with a 109 figure, having earned 106 and 109 figures previous to that. Then he regressed significantly in the Awesome Again when fourth with a 98 figure and as such it does not appear likely he can contend with the top horses in this race. Similarly, Express Train ran his best race of 2021 when winning the San Diego Handicap in July with a 107 figure but as he is entering this race off sixth and third place finishes with 95 and 99 figure efforts and has a tall order ahead of him to be competitive. Stilleto Boy finished second by five lengths to Medina Spirit in the Awesome Again with a 102 figure and ran the best race of his career with a 106 figure in the Iowa Derby in July but has never run this far and appears to be up against it in terms of a top three placing.

Grade 1 Longines Breeders' Cup Classic
Saturday, November 6 – Race 12, Post Time 8:40 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
For Three Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $6 Million
TV: NBC 8-9 p.m. ET

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase. You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Del Mar on Breeders' Cup Weekend (Friday 11/5 and Saturday 11/6), at Equibase.com

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