Ellis Starr | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Thomas Shelby Could Get Perfect Trip In Oaklawn’s Fifth Season

Nine horses are entered in Saturday's $150,000 Fifth Season Stakes at Oaklawn Park, including the 2019 and 2021 winners of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, Long Range Toddy and Concert Tour, respectively. Long Range Toddy is winless in 16 races since then while Concert Tour, last seen finishing ninth of 10 in the G1 Preakness Stakes, returns from an eight month layoff and a change to the barn of Brad Cox.

Snapper Sinclair leads the field in career earnings at $1.8 million. He has run poorly in his last two races but one was his first ever try on an all-weather surface and the other was in the G1 Breeders' Cup Mile. Two races prior to that Snapper Sinclair won the TVG Stakes on the grass at Kentucky Downs. Rated R Superstar, who returns from four months off, is another who has had a fine career to date, earning $1.1 million, with his most recent win coming in the Governor's Cup Stakes in August.

Mucho enters the Fifth Season Stakes in superb form with six straight in-the-money finishes including a win in the Challedon Stakes last summer. However, Mucho is running in a two-turn race for the very first time after 29 races around one turn. Necker Island is another horse stretching out to two turns. He won the Bet On Sunshine Stakes in November as one of five wins in his career.

Thomas Shelby really likes to win races, with 10 victories in 24 career races. His most recent effort was a second place finish in the Tinsel Stakes at Oaklawn last month. Silver Prospector is approaching the $1 million mark in career earnings. After winning the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in the winter of 2020, he has won just one of eight races. Atoka rounds out the field, entering the race off a runner-up effort in an allowance race over the track from which he was moved up to first after the winner was disqualified.

Top Contenders

Thomas Shelby draws the rail for this mile trip and that means jockey David Cohen will have the ability to put him on the lead, which has resulted in three wins in his last four starts, or settle him just off the pace, which has resulted in another three wins before that. Thomas Shelby joined the barn of trainer Robertino Diodoro in November of 2020 and after finishing fourth, third and seventh in his initial three starts for the barn, has turned into an “alpha” horse, winning seven of 10. Last October Thomas Shelby ran the best race of his career winning a classified allowance race with a personal-best 112 ™ Equibase Speed Figure. He won again in November, then after two months off led until deep stretch before coming up three-quarters of a length short in the Tinsel Stakes. That race was at Oaklawn and was run at a mile and one-eighth, with Thomas Shelby leading at the point this mile race ends so repeating that effort could be good enough to win the Fifth Season Stakes.

Silver Prospector has four career wins, one of which came at Oaklawn. That was when victorious in the 2020 Southwest Stakes with a then career-best 107 ™ figure. After a poor sixth place effort in the Rebel Stakes followed by a poorer seventh place finish in the Arkansas Derby, Silver Prospector was given nearly six months off. Returning in the fall off a lengthy layoff, Silver Prospector raced in top form to win and earned a very strong 106 figure considering the time off. Although winless in five races since, Silver Prospector ran just as well as he had in the comeback when second in the Razorback Stakes last February at Oaklawn, earning a 108 figure. Now rested since last May the same way he was in the spring of 2020 until his strong win in the fall of that year, Silver Prospector has put in a pair of very strong workouts which were the best of 52 and the fourth best of 44 on the day. These signal he could be as fit and ready to run just like he did off a similar layoff, and if he does that he could certainly compete for top honors in this race.

Concert Tour is another returning off a layoff since last May, and he too is working in the morning like he will not need a race before showing his best. Concert Tour won the first three races of his career last year, including the San Vicente Stakes and the Rebel, in which he earned a career-best 104 figure drawing off easily to win by four and one-quarter lengths in geared down fashion. After a third place finish in the Arkansas Derby¸ Concert Tour skipped the Kentucky Derby then showed up in the Preakness, running the worst race of his career when ninth of 10 and beaten more than 30 lengths. Returning to training last October, Concert Tour has been placed in the care of trainer Brad Cox, who has an exceptional record of nine wins from 25 starts with horses coming back from six months off or more in dirt routes. As such, Concert Tour appears to fit with the best of the contenders in this year's Fifth Season.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Atoka (100), Long Range Toddy (102), Mucho (108 in sprint races), Necker Island (108 in sprint races), Rated R Superstar (105) and Snapper Sinclair (115 on turf).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Thomas Shelby
Silver Prospector
Concert Tour

Fifth Season Stakes
Race 8 at Oaklawn
Saturday, January 15, 2022 – Post Time 4:46 PM E.T.
One Mile
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $150,000

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Equibase Analysis: Hagler Could Throw Knockout Punch In Jerome Stakes

Eight horses are entered in Saturday's $150,000 Jerome Stakes, which kicks off the Road to the Kentucky Derby for 2022 in New York. The rest of the series consists of the Withers Stakes on Feb. 5 and the Gotham Stakes on March 5 before culminating in the Wood Memorial Stakes on April 9.

Leading this field is a pair of recent stakes placed runners in Cooke Creek and Ohtwoohthreefive. Cooke Creek won the Rocky Run Stakes in October and was most recently second in the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes in November, while Ohtwoohthreefive missed by a nose in the Central Park Stakes on turf near the end of November and tries dirt for the first time for his seventh career start.

Mr Jefferson also enters the Jerome off a stakes try, as he was fourth of eight in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Belmont four weeks ago. Rumble Strip Ron finished second in the Best of Ohio Stakes in October which was a race restricted to horses bred in Ohio, and he enters the race off a claiming race in November so this will be a big test.

Then there are a quartet of recent winners, including Hagler, who broke his maiden in October and then bested allowance company on Dec. 16. The other recent winners, Courvoisier, Smarten Up and Unbridled Bomber, all enter the Jerome Stakes off maiden wins and will attempt to prove they belong at this level.

Top contenders:

Hagler gets a great outside post for this one-turn mile trip at Aqueduct and appears to be the type who can be on the lead or just off the pace from the start, which is an advantage in many ways. He and jockey Jorge Vargas, Jr. can wait a few strides to see if another horse wants the lead at the start, at that point taking up a stalking position, or if no other horse wants the lead Hagler can take command. The latter is exactly what he did in his most recent race on Dec. 16 at Aqueduct where he led from start to finish.

Prior to that, on Oct. 29, Hagler stayed in second for the first half-mile before drawing off to win by four and one-half lengths. Both victories came with Vargas, Jr. in the saddle, and the first of the two earned an 84 ™ Equibase Speed Figure which, if logically improved on in the colt's third start off a layoff, puts him in range of the top horse's figures in the field.

Those top figures belong to the other two main contenders: Ohtwoohthreefive (93) and Cooke Creek (89). Trainer Rudy Rodriguez has a very good 20 percent win rate when stretching a horse out in distance at Aqueduct (per Race Lens) over the last two years, with a +38 percent return on investment and a median win payoff of $13. As such, I expect Hagler to win his third race in a row and put his name squarely into the Road to the Kentucky Derby with a big effort in the Jerome Stakes.

Ohtwoohthreefive has raced exclusively on turf to date, with a record of 1-2-2 in six races. His best effort came in his most recent race on Nov. 27 in the Central Park Stakes, where he rallied to lead with an eighth of a mile to go then battled nose-and-nose down to the wire, losing by inches at the finish. Nevertheless, the 95™ figure he earned is the best by any horse in the field. Whether that type of effort is transferrable to dirt does not appear to be a question as his sire is Union Rags, himself a talented colt on dirt including a win in the 2012 Belmont Stakes. Additionally, trainer George Weaver has a creditable five-for-16 record when moving a horse from turf to dirt over the last 12 months. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche rode Ohtwoohthreefive for the first time that day and rides back in the Jerome, and if the early pace is hotly contested this colt could be the one to get up in time and win.

Cooke Creek is the only horse in the Jerome Stakes field with a stakes win, and that win came at the same mile trip as this race. He won his debut when sprinting easily in September with a 76 figure then stretched out to a mile and won the Rocky Run Stakes in October, earning an 89 figure. Trying much tougher foes in the Nashua Stakes in November, Cooke Creek was no match for winner Rockefeller when second the entire length of the stretch but he was nearly three lengths clear of the next horse, earning an 86 figure in the process. With jockey Manuel Franco riding back after getting familiar with the colt in the Nashua, Cooke Creek certainly can win this race with just slight improvement off his Rocky Run effort.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Courvoisier (85), Mr Jefferson (82), Rumble Strip Ron (77), Smarten Up (71) and Unbridled Bomber (82).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Hagler
Ohtwoohthreefive
Cooke Creek

Jerome Stakes
Race 8 at Aqueduct
Saturday, Jan. 1, 2022 – Post Time 3:50 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Year Olds
Purse: $150,000

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Equibase Analysis: Runhappy Malibu Opponents May Need To Sprout Wings To Beat Flightline

Seven horses are entered in the Grade 1, $300,000 Runhappy Malibu Stakes, one of six stakes races, all graded, which make up the opening day card for the 2021-'22 meet at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, Calif.

In terms of earnings, Dr. Schivel tops the group with $876,000 banked to date, much of it earned last month when second and beaten a nose in the G1 Breeders' Cup Sprint against older horses. Prior to that, Dr. Schivel won the G2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship and the G1 Bing Crosby Stakes to prove he belongs in this race.

Stilleto Boy also ran in a race on that star-studded card but didn't fare nearly as well when fifth of eight in the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic, with his best effort of the year coming when second in the G1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita one month earlier.

Next in terms of accomplishments is invader Timeless Bounty, who has earned $210,714 in his career and who just pulled off the 59-1 upset in the $250,000 Steel Valley Sprint Stakes one month ago at Mahoning Valley in Ohio.

Baby Yoda won three of his first four starts including a pair of impressive efforts at Saratoga this summer. At this level, however, he did not fare so well, finishing third in the G2 Vosburgh Stakes before a seventh-place effort as the heavy favorite in the Steel Valley Sprint.

Team Merchants won the non-graded Let It Ride Stakes on the turf last month and has won two of five on dirt but his two previous tries in graded stakes resulted in fourth and 13th-place finishes.

Last but absolutely not least are a pair of horses who are undefeated in two starts to date and who are running in a stakes for the first time. One of those is Flightline, with an average winning margin of 13 lengths in his two wins. The other is Triple Tap, a half-brother to champion and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Triple Tap has won his two starts by a combined 6 1/2 lengths and appears to be a horse with an exceptionally bright future.

Win contender:

There is no discussion about this race that does not involve Flightline winning, and possibly dominating, this year's Runhappy Malibu Stakes. I cannot ever recall a 3- year-old doing what this colt has done in his two starts to date. In his debut in April, Flightline was bumped at the start and found himself sixth of eight and about 1 1/2 lengths from the leader. After a sixteenth of a mile had been run, Flightline had taken the lead and by the time the field hit the stretch he was in front by 10 lengths, eventually drawing off to win by 13 1/4 lengths. For that effort, Flightline earned a virtually unheard of 116 Equibase Speed Figure which at that time of year would have high enough to win a graded stakes.

Away from the races for a little over four months after that, Flightline relaxed in second for the first quarter mile and then won by nearly 13 lengths, this time earning a grade 1 figure of 130. To put that kind of effort into perspective, Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Aloha West earned a 110 figure and Breeders' Cup Classic winner Knicks Go earned a 118 figure. Even impressive Breeders' Cup Mile winner Life is Good (120 figure) did not run as fast as Flightline did in that effort on September 5.

Rested almost four months this time, Flightline has been working out strongly every six to eight days since October 31, including three straight workouts that were the best of the morning from among 28, 57 and 41 horses that day. Jockey Flavien Prat, who rode Flightline to victory in both starts, also rode Dr. Schivel to win four straight races and to a nose defeat in the Breeders' Cup Sprint but chooses Flightline in the Malibu. Prat also rode Triple Tap to both of his impressive wins and chooses Flightline.

Going back to how fast Flightline has run in his two starts to date, comparing those efforts to the rest of the Malibu field, even the 116 figure Flightline earned in his maiden win in April is faster than the best figure any other horse in the field has earned this year, and if he repeats the 130 figure effort from September, and even if horses like Triple Tap (107 last race figure and Dr. Schivel (112 and 110 figures in his last two races) improve off those recent efforts, it is going to be very difficult to beat Flightline in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Baby Yoda (111), Dr. Schivel (112), Stilleto Boy (106), Team Merchants (109), Timeless Bounty (100) and Triple Tap (107).

The horse to beat in this year's Malibu Stakes is Flightline.

If you are looking for a horse to come on strongly in the late stages and to finish second or third, the best options appear to be Dr. Schivel, Team Merchants and Timeless Bounty.

Runhappy Malibu Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Santa Anita
Sunday, December 26, 2021 – Post Time 6:49 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
Three Year Olds
Purse: $300,000

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase

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Equibase Analysis: 12-1 On The Morning Line, Officiating Looks Very Tough In Mr. Prospector Stakes

This Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Mr. Prospector Stakes at Gulfstream Park drew a field of seven sprinters running seven furlongs in an intriguing race: not one of the group has finished in the top three in a graded stakes in 2021. That being said, three horses enter the race having either won their most recent race or the one just prior to that.

Dennis' Moment is one of the two in the former group, having won at the seven furlong distance in his most recent race and with a previous graded stakes win in his career as he captured the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes in the fall of 2019.
Officiating won at this distance one race before last, the win coming in the non-graded Bear's Den Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
Doc Amster won last month at Gulfstream Park at the shorter distance of six furlongs and is trying this seven furlong trip for the first time.
Then there's Endorsed, with the highest career earnings in the field at $455,375. His best effort at this level came when second in the Grade 3 Westchester Stakes in June of last year, and he enters the Mr. Prospector Stakes off a fast closing third place effort in his most recent start.
Poppy's Pride won four in a row between September and December of last year but has run poorly in two starts since returning from an eight month layoff in September.
Wind of Change (BRZ) finished fourth in last year's Mr. Prospector and enters this year's race off a runner-up finish two months ago.
Flap Jack rounds out the field, not having won in nine races since June, 2020 and still eligible to run in a second level allowance race.

Main win contenders:

Officiating took seven tries to earn his first win, doing so on turf this past March. Following his maiden win and after missing by a neck in a non-graded stakes race on turf and a mediocre third place effort on dirt, he was privately transferred to the barn of trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. Then, after fourth and third place finishes on turf, Officiating was entered in the Bear's Den Stakes, scheduled for turf, but stayed in the race which was moved to dirt due to weather, earning a career best 110 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure and winning authoritatively by three and one-half lengths.

In his most recent race and following the Bear's Den, Officiating tried the Tapeta all-weather surface and two-turns in the Showing Up Stakes last month and ran poorly, demonstrating only he did not like the surface nor the distance. Cutting back to the distance of the Bear's Den while moving back to the surface of that race, it can be assumed Officiating can duplicate his effort in that race which is good enough to win. There is also little doubt about his being able to run as well considering his last two workouts on dirt coming into the race have been excellent.

Dennis' Moment was thought to be a top 2-year-old in the summer of 2019 following his 19 length win in July with a 106 ™ figure, virtually unheard of for a young two year old. He won the Iroquois Stakes two months later but after finishing last of eight in that year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Stakes he was given time off to mature. When returning in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last February, 2020, Dennis' Moment was sent to post as the heavy favorite but finished 10th and last.

Rested another nine months, he ran poorly one year ago and was again given time off. This time the rest helped greatly as Dennis' Moment missed by a head in a six furlong sprint. Two races later in October, Dennis' Moment earned his first win in 25 months in a highly rated race at Keeneland at the distance of the Mr. Prospector, duplicating the 106 figure earned in the summer of 2019. With logical improvement off that effort in his fourth start off the rest and at the same distance of his last effort, Dennis' Moment has every right to earn a graded stakes win for the second time in his career.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Doc Amster (103), Endorsed (110), Flap Jack (101), Poppy's Pride (97) and Wind of Change (BRZ) (114).

Win Contenders, in preference order:

Officiating
Dennis' Moment

Mr. Prospector Stakes – Grade 3
Race 10 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, December 11 – Post Time 4:32 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $100,000

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