Ellis Starr | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Mr. Freeze Poised For Fireworks In Met Mile

The Fourth of July feature on a fantastic day of racing at Belmont Park is the Grade 1, $500,000 Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap, otherwise known as the Met Mile. Historically one of the biggest races in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile division, this year's race lives up to that billing with eight horses running the one-turn mile trip.

Leading the field in terms of earnings is Code of Honor, who has earned more than $2.4 million to date, some of that when winning the Grade 1 Travers Stakes last summer two races after a second place finish (via disqualification of the winner) in the Kentucky Derby. Making his first start as a four year old last month, Code of Honor won the Grade 3 Westchester Stakes and appears set for even better.

The horse with the top earnings in the field is McKinzie, who has amassed a $3.4 million bankroll. McKinzie rallied from next-to-last in the 2019 Metropolitan Handicap and comes into the race off a “ridden out” win in the Grade 2 Triple Bend Stakes. Mr Freeze is another talented horse with $1.4 million in career earnings. Mr Freeze won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes at this one-turn mile trip in February to prove he belongs at this level.

Vekoma won the Grade 2 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in April, 2019 and went into the Kentucky Derby well-regarded but finished 13th. A perfect two-for-two in 2020, Vekoma comes off a win in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap at Belmont last month. Westchester runner-up Endorsed and Carter runner-up Network Effect hope to turn the tables on Code of Honor and Vekoma, respectively.

Hog Creek Hustle won the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes last June on Belmont Stakes day but is winless in seven races since then. Warrior's Charge rounds out the field of eight. He won the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap in February in the same manner he's earned all of his other three wins, leading from start to finish. As such, we know who will be trying to lead these on a merry chase from the start.

Mr Freeze and Vekoma are my two top contenders to win this year's Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap, but of the pair I will give Mr Freeze preference. The reason is he's a true dirt miler. Last September, Mr Freeze won the Ack Ack Stakes for a then career-best 115 Equibase Speed Figure and he hasn't really run a bad race since then. Stretching out to two-turns and a mile and one-eighth for the Fayette Stakes in October and the Clark Stakes in November, Mr Freeze finished respectably to the top horse in the handicap division in North America, Tom's d'Etat, winner of the Stephen Foster Stakes last weekend. After another big effort when second in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational in January, Mr Freeze cut back to a one turn mile and won the Gulfstream Park Mile in impressive fashion, duplicating the 115 figure earned in the Ack Ack. Once again Mr Freeze stretched out to nine furlongs for the Oaklawn Handicap when last seen in May, finishing third of 13. Incidentally, the winner of that race (By My Standards) came back to run second to Tom's d'Etat in the Foster. For this race, Mr Freeze is once again cutting back from a mile and one-eighth to a mile and if his last two efforts at a mile are any indication, he's going to be very tough to beat. On another positive note, jockey Manny Franco rode Mr Freeze just once previously, when victorious in the Gulfstream Park Mile.

Vekoma, although running just twice in 2018, was a top two-year-old as he won the Nashua Stakes in November in only the second start of his career. Similarly, he won the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in his second start as a three year old, before disappointing badly when 13th in the Kentucky Derby. Given nearly 11 months to mature after that, Vekoma made a very sharp debut as a four year old in March with a stirring victory in the Sir Shackleton Stakes with a career-best 109 figure. Improving sensationally in his second start of the year, Vekoma put to shame a good field in the Carter Handicap last month at Belmont when drawing off to a seven and one-quarter length win. The 116 figure earned in that race is the second best last race figure in the field, just one point shy of the 117 McKinzie earned last month at the same seven furlong trip. However, what Vekoma has going for him which McKinzie does not is being a four year old, Vekoma is still physically maturing and can improve. A perfect four-for-four in one-turn races in his career and with a perfect two-for-two record at Belmont, Vekoma is another strong contender to win this year's Metropolitan Handicap.

Code of Honor, like Vekoma, was a top three-year-old last year, winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes in March. After third place finishes in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby, placed second in the latter race after the disqualification of Maximum Security, Code of Honor proved himself once again when winning the Dwyer Stakes at this one-turn mile trip at Belmont last July. Stretching out to a mile and one-quarter, Code of Honor won the Travers Stakes before a career-best effort and 114 figure when coming up a nose short in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, then was moved up to first after bumped by the original winner. The long campaign apparently took its toll as he finished seventh in the Breeders' Cup Classic. However, after seven months off, Code of Honor came back strongly to win the Westchester Stakes last month over the track with a 113 figure effort that bears improvement in his second start off that long layoff.

Endorsed led into the stretch in the Westchester but had no answer for Code of Honor in the late stages. The 112 figure was a career-best and he certainly could be a factor once more. McKinzie earned a 117 figure winning the Triple Bend Stakes last month in California and earned back-to-back 121 figures in two-turn races, winning the Whitney Stakes last summer at Saratoga then second in the Awesome Again Stakes. He finished second in the Breeders' Cup Classic to end his 2019 campaign. McKinzie, along with Hog Creek Hustle has mostly a deep closing style when he runs into a very hot pace as evidenced by his eighth to second place effort in last year's Metropolitan Handicap. Hog Creek Hustle earned a career best 106 figure when coming up a nose short in the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes last summer but has not come close to running that kind of race since. With only one “early” pace type in this race, Warrior's Charge (with a career-best 104 figure), I think the late charges of both McKinzie and Hog Creek Hustle may be a bit muted. Network Effect earned a career-best 111 figure winning the restricted Big Drama Stakes in May but was no match for Vekoma in the Carter and is another who may be held to a minor award.

Win Contenders:
Mr Freeze
Vekoma
Code of Honor

Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap – Grade 1
Race 9 at Belmont Park
Saturday, July 4 – Post Time 5:47 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $500,000
T.V.: NBC 5 – 6 PM E.T.

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Equibase Analysis: Fore Left Could Upset Tiz The Law In Belmont Stakes

In the scheme of things, the Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Stakes being run in June doesn't seem that out of the normal. However, in the year of the pandemic the fact the race comes before the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and will be run at the distance of one mile and one-eighth really makes a point things are out of whack this year. Just the same, a strong field of 10 lines up for the race which earns the top four finishers significant points on the Road to the Derby.

Tiz the Law leads the field in career earnings ($945,300) and accomplishments, having won four of five career races including the Grade 1 Florida Derby easily by four and one-quarter lengths when last seen. Sole Volante also has won four races, including the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in February, before a runner-up effort in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and a strong win 10 days ago which was the ticket to ship from Florida to New York for this race.

Another horse proven in the top races for three-year-olds early this year is Modernist, winner of one of the two divisions of the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes in February. However, he had no excuse when third in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in his most recent start. Likewise, Max Player won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes at the distance of this year's Belmont, but hasn't been seen in the five and one-half months since then. Fore Left shipped half-way across the world for his three year old debut and came away with a strong win on the lead throughout in the Group 3 United Arab Emirates 2000 Guineas in February.

Dr Post punched his ticket into the race with a victory in the Unbridled Stakes in late April. He's trained by Todd Pletcher, who also saddles Farmington Road, the runner-up in the Oaklawn Stakes in April before a non-threatening fourth in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby in May. Tap It to Win won impressively at Belmont just 16 days ago and appears to have a lot of talent.

Trainer Steve Asmussen, who recently became the all-time leading trainer at Churchill Downs, saddles a pair. One of those is Pneumatic, who contested the pace for most of the race before tiring a bit and ending up third in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes last month. The other is Jungle Runner, who won the one turn Clever Trevor Stakes in November but who has been beaten a total of sixty-seven lengths in four starts since then.

Although Tiz the Law is the one to beat on paper, I'm going to take a shot with Fore Left to post the upset in the Belmont Stakes. The colt won the first two starts of his career last May and June, both sprints including the Tremont Stakes at Belmont Park, then after two months off he wasn't disgraced a bit when ending up third and a neck behind the runner-up in the Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar. Following a poor effort in his two-turn debut in the American Pharoah Stakes last September, the southern California prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the colt returned to sprinting and won a minor stakes before trying an all-weather track and trying turf, finishing third then 10th in those races. Rested two months and put back on the dirt while shipping to Dubai for the United Arab Emirates 2000 Guineas, Fore Left led from the start in a 16 horse field and held off all challengers early while drawing off late with some authority.

That effort showed he had matured nicely over the winter as he earned a career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure. The runner-up in that race returned to win a stakes the following month which flattered the form of Fore Left somewhat. Rested since then, Fore Left resumed training in April and shipped to Belmont the first week of June. Since then, he's put in two very strong morning drills over a track he already proved a liking for when winning last spring. Although Tap It to Win earned his last victory at Belmont leading from start to finish, I believe Fore Left will be sent for the lead by jockey Jose Ortiz and if allowed to get into a high cruising speed as he did in the 2000 Guineas, he could post the upset win in this field. He still has to beat Tiz the Law, with 117 and 112 figures earned in his last two starts, but considering this will be only his second start as a three year old, Fore Left may be able to do just that.

There's little question Tiz the Law is the horse to beat based on his body of work and particularly his two races this year. Rested two months after a poor third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall, Tiz the Law was a powerful winner of the Holy Bull Stakes with a career-best and field high 117 Figure which remains the highest stakes winning figure by any thee year old in North America even four months later. Although he earned a lower 112 figure winning the Florida Derby, Tiz the Law did not need to run any faster after he opened up by a length in the stretch and jockey Manual Franco noted there were no challengers coming.

When a horse has earned two consecutive figures which are both higher than any other horse in the field, it's known as a “double advantage” and these horses win a high percentage of the time. Considering how well Tiz the Law ran off a similar layoff in the Holy Bull, and the colt has excellent tactical speed which is likely to have him in third or fourth position early and in range of the leaders at the critical stage of the race, Tiz the Law is a legitimate favorite and the most probable to win the race. The only proviso is how strong a horse like Fore Left may be if allowed an easy lead from the start as horses can get very courageous when allowed to run that way.

Sole Volante was my top choice in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on this page in February off his third place effort in his first dirt start prior to that. Not only had trainer Patrick Biancone already proved prescient with the move as Ete Indien had run very well a couple of weeks earlier, but Sole Volante had tremendous dam side breeding for running well in stakes on dirt. The other foal of the dam, Explode, was multiple stakes placed at distances from nine to 10 furlongs. Sole Volante rewarded those who bet him in the Sam F. Davis with a win at 5 to 1 odds and earned a career best dirt figure of 108. One month later in the Tampa Bay Derby, Sole Volante rallied from 11th of 12 early but couldn't catch the winner and ended up second. Taking three months off, Sole Volante was very impressive with a big burst of speed in the stretch to win 10 days ago. Even though that was not a stakes race, the 107 figure was stakes quality. Sole Volante is likely to be near the back of the pack early but if there is any sort of pace battle early or if the early fractions are faster than average, Sole Volante could be passing the field late for his second graded stakes win of the year.

Honorable mention goes to Tap It to Win and Dr Post as both are on the verge of breakthrough performances. Tap It to Win won a sprint in May in his three year old debut with a 99 figure, then improved to a 108 figure effort 16 days ago. That win came in a one-turn route at Belmont not much different from the Belmont Stakes. Because of the level of the race, there's no way to know the class of the horses he beat but as a son of Tapit and with the ground saving rail Tap It to Win may take the needed step forward to compete with these. Dr Post shows a similar pattern as he stretched out to a mile and one-sixteenth off a sprint in his most recent start and won well. He improved from a 92 figure to 101 so he appears to be a bit behind Tap It to Win but three year olds still have potential to take a big leap forward from race to race, particularly lightly raced ones like Dr Post.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Farmington Road (100), Jungle Runner (85), Max Player (103), Modernist (94) and Pneumatic (98).

Win Contenders:
Fore Left
Tiz the Law
Sole Volante

Belmont Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Belmont Park
Saturday, June 20 – Post Time 5:42 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Years Old
Purse: $1 Million
T.V.: NBC 2:45 – 6 PM E.T.

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Equibase Analysis: Who Looks Best In Charles Town Classic?

This year's edition of the Grade 1, $1 million Charles Town Classic brings together a field of 10 plus one also-eligible and includes last year's winner Something Awesome as well as Imperative, who won the race in 2014 and again in 2017. However, both previous winners enter this year's race off two or more very poor recent efforts.

Similarly, 2018 Charles Town Classic runner-up War Story enters the race off both a very poor effort and a five month layoff. Diamond King earned his biggest win in the Federico Tesio stakes last year at the distance of the Classic and enters the race off a sharp win last month following nearly six months away from the races. Rally Cry finished fourth in the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes last summer and won the Alydar Stakes at this distance the previous summer.

Then there's Runnin'toluvya, a local star who loves to win as evidenced by 11 victories in 14 races at Charles Town. The most recent of those wins came in the Russell Road Overnight Prep Stakes, the stepping stone to the Classic. Other entrants of note include Discreet Lover, who posted the 45 to 1 upset in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup last summer, and Unbridled Juan, who finished second last month at the distance in the Harrison E. Johnson Memorial Stakes. Mongolian Groom, Nanoosh and also-eligible Bobby G round out the field.

Runnin'toluvya doesn't have any of the questions regarding form, fitness, recent races or the ability to win at the distance of the Charles Town Classic which many of the other entrants have. Going back to June of last year, Runnin'toluvya has reeled off eight straight wins and if not for a neck defeat last May would be going for his 11^th win in a row. Many of the wins came against similar horses bred in West Virginia only, but Runnin'toluvya proved superior to his competition in all those races as he was in front with an eighth of a mile to go and coasted home each time. Two of those wins came at the mile and one-eighth distance of the Classic including a then career-best 107 Equibase Speed Figure effort last November in the A Huevo Stakes.

Rested for more than four months, Runnin'toluvya returned last month in the local prep for the Classic, the Russell Road Overnight Prep Stakes at seven furlongs and he picked up where he left off in the fall with an easy win. In the Russell Road, Runnin'toluvya earned a new career-best figure of 110 which was better than the 108 figure Imperative earned winning the race in 2017. Although the figure was not as good as the 118 figure Something Awesome earned winning the Classic last year, considering Runnin'toluvya will be making his second start off a layoff and stretching out from seven to nine furlongs, which he did to win the West Virginia Breeders' Classic Stakes last fall, a new best effort and figure are possible which gives him a nice chance to post the upset and win this year's Charles Town Classic.

Diamond King is another Classic entrant who has no questions of fitness as he just ran on March 22. That was his first effort against older horses and he passed the test with flying colors as he earned a career-best 108 winning by three and three-quarter lengths. On this weekend last year, Diamond King won the Federico Tesio Stakes when stretching out from one-turn to two-turns as he is doing here and as the colt is making his second start following nearly six months off, a new career-best effort is entirely possible.

Rally Cry returns from more than seven months off but since his trainer is Todd Pletcher it is unlikely he will need a race before showing his best. According to STATS Race Lens, in the past two years, Pletcher has a strong 13 for 31 record with horses returning from a layoff of 180 days or more in a dirt route. John Velazquez rode Rally Cry to his biggest win when victorious by eight and three-quarter lengths in the Alydar Stakes in the summer of 2017 and at the distance of the Classic and that effort earned the horse a career-best 125 figure which, if repeated, would make him tough to beat. Winless in four races since then, Rally Cry had only two starts in 2018, resulting in fourth place finishes. However, considering Pletcher won this race in 2012 with Caixa Eletronica and again in 2016 with Stanford, I think Rally Cry may be up to the task.

Although not a win contender, Unbridled Juan should be considered for any exacta tickets played as he could finish second as he's done nine times in 29 races including four times at the nine furlong trip of the Classic. Unbridled Juan shows up for every race and is very competitive, having earned 106 figures when third and beaten a pair of necks in the John B. Campbell Stakes in February and when winning the Richard W. Small Stakes last November.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Bobby G (97), Discreet Lover (115), Imperative (108), Mongolian Groom (113), Nonoosh (105), Something Awesome (118) and War Story (118).

Win contenders:
Runnin'toluvya
Diamond King
Rally Cry

For exotic wagers like the exacta:
Unbridled Juan

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