Ellis Starr | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Pneumatic, Art Collector Both Poised To Upset Preakness Stakes

Overview: Kentucky Derby upset winner Authentic returns in the Grade 1, $1 million Preakness Stakes, with Derby third place finisher Mr. Big News trying to improve his finish, as well as Max Player and Ny Traffic who finished fifth and eighth, respectively, in the race. Two horses that were expected to run in the Derby but did not, Art Collector and Thousand Words, appear to be legitimate challengers to the likely betting favorite. Art Collector won both the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes and Ellis Park Derby before a minor issue resulted in him passing the Derby. Thousand Words, who won the Shared Belief Stakes in August, briefly fell in the paddock before the Derby and had to withdraw. Other new shooters include the filly Swiss Skydiver, runner-up in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks last month. Another potential contender is Pneumatic, winner of the Pegasus Stakes in August. Liveyourbeastlife was competitive at the level when second in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes the first weekend of September, with Jesus' Team close behind in third in that race. Excession hasn't been seen since March but appears to fit as well off his second place finish in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in his most recent start. However, that race was more than six months ago.

Contender analysis: In spite of Authentic winning the Kentucky Derby rather easily and gamely by a length and three-quarters, I think an upset is brewing and the horse which is capable of that upset is Pneumatic. In recent history, the Derby winner has won four of the last 10 editions of the Preakness when they have run in the race. However, that means there have been six occasions the Derby winner has been beaten. I'll take those odds, particularly this year where the number of horses who didn't run in the Derby appear to be every bit as fast as the Derby winner. Pneumatic is the most lightly raced horse in the Preakness field and I think that gives him an edge.

Starting his career in February, Pneumatic won first out in a sprint and has continued to improve, mature, and run faster in each race since then. After stretching out to a mile in his second start in April, Pneumatic improved again when third in the Matt Winn Stakes and even when fourth in the Belmont Stakes in June took another step forward. His pattern of Equibase Speed Figures from his debut through the Belmont (90, 96, 98, 101) denotes a 3-year-old getting physically and mentally stronger with each and every race. Then, in the Pegasus Stakes in mid-August, Pneumatic took a drastic step forward to earn a 113 figure. Putting that figure in perspective, Authentic earned a 109 figure in the Derby while Swiss Skydiver earned the same 109 figure when runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks. Thousand Words' 107 figure in the Shared Belief and the 104 figure Art Collector earned in the Ellis Park Derby were both lower as compared to Pneumatic. Then there's the matter of this mile and three-sixteenths distance. Aside from the fact Swiss Skydiver won the Alabama Stakes and Authentic won the Kentucky Derby at the distance of one mile and one-quarter, no other horse has won at the distance. However, Pneumatic is by Uncle Mo, and per STATS Race Lens Uncle Mo has sired the most stakes race winners at distances from nine and one-half to 10 furlongs compared to all the other sires of Preakness entrants. Trained by North American leading trainer Steve Asmussen, who won the Preakness in 2007 (Curlin) and in 2009 (Rachel Alexandra), if Pneumatic continues to improve as it appears he should, he could win the Preakness at high odds.

Art Collector, who was likely to be the second betting choice behind Tiz the Law in the Derby, did not enter the race when sustaining a mild injury to his heel prior to the race. That might have been the best thing to happen to this immensely talented colt, as he's come back to put in three superb workouts. This suggests Art Collector is in the same top form he has demonstrated since returning from five and one-half months off in May and winning four straight races. After a dominant victory in the Blue Grass Stakes in July with a 102 figure, he ran even better in the Ellis Park Derby with a 104 figure. In both those races, Art Collector was drawing off at the end, suggesting he's a horse which should have no issues with the added sixteenth of a mile in the Preakness. Having the ability to win on the lead or from off the pace, Art Collector is likely to be in the thick of the action in the Preakness from the start and right down to the finish line.

Authentic has been nearly perfect in his career, winning five times and finishing second once. After taking the Haskell Stakes with a career-best 109 figure in July at one mile and one-eighth, Authentic repeated the effort with the same figure in the Derby while leading from start to finish. Considering his last four wins have been earned when leading from start to finish, there is some concern as to what will happen if other horses decide to contest him for the lead. Stablemate Thousand Words (also trained by Bob Baffert) led from start to finish in the Shared Belief Stakes last month and might try to battle for the lead in spite of Baffert's strategy to the contrary, particularly since he is adding blinkers. Art Collector, Ny Traffic and Swiss Skydiver could all be hot on Authentic's heels from the start as well. Still, his Derby effort was very good and any improvement off that race could make him a formidable opponent in the Preakness.

Swiss Skydiver will try to repeat the feat of another filly, Rachel Alexandra, who won the Preakness in 2009 after competing in the Kentucky Oaks. Rachel Alexandra won the Oaks, while Swiss Skydiver finished second in the race this year, but Swiss Skydiver ran the best race of her career in doing so, earning the same 109 figure Authentic did one day later winning the Derby. Prior to that, Swiss Skydiver won the 10 furlong Alabama Stakes in handy fashion and it's possible the return of a 19 day layoff may have been too quick of a turnaround. Rested four weeks this time, Swiss Skydiver has come back to put in two very strong workouts and I expect the filly to be very competitive in this race.

The rest of the Preakness Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures is Excession (100), Jesus' Team (109), Liveyourbeastlife (107), Mr. Big News (105), Max Player (105), Ny Traffic (109) and Thousand Words (107).

Win contenders:
Pneumatic
Art Collector
Swiss Skydiver
Authentic

Preakness Stakes – Grade 1
Race 11 at Pimlico
Saturday, Oct. 3 – Post Time 5:36 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Sixteenths
For 3-Year-Olds
Purse: $1 Million
TV: NBC 4:30 – 6 PM ET

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Pimlico on Preakness Stakes Day – Saturday, Oct. 3 at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and most online wagering sites.

The post Equibase Analysis: Pneumatic, Art Collector Both Poised To Upset Preakness Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Equibase Analysis: Notable Exception Could Post The Upset In American Pharoah Stakes

The Grade 1, $300,000 American Pharoah Stakes is a “Win and You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile the first full weekend in November at Keeneland Race Course. Of the eight entrants, only one (Waspirant) has won a route race of a mile or more, doing so last month to break his maiden in his second career start, and only one (Weston) has won a stakes race, having proven victorious in the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes at seven furlongs in August. However, the other six all have the potential to take that leap forward and run well enough to win, such as Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity runner-up Spielberg, who is still a maiden as he finished second in his only other race to date.

Get Her Number led from the start in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes just 19 days ago and settled for fourth at the end but was beaten just a pair of noses for the runner-up spot. Dyn O Mite was much further back in fifth in the Del Mar Futurity while Rombauer was sixth in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf and both hope to be more competitive. Notable Exception is a truly unknown quantity as he is the only horse not to have run locally as he broke his maiden in his debut 22 days ago at Arlington Park in Illinois. Touchdown Brown rounds out the field and enters the race off a half-length defeat in the I'm Smokin Stakes (restricted to California bred horses) around one turn three weeks ago.

In spite of only having run once and not having run around two turns, Notable Exception is my top choice to win this year's American Pharoah Stakes. In his debut on September 4, Noble Exception demonstrated a lot of physical and mental quality as he battled for the lead from the start then relinquished it briefly before a half-mile had been run. Reasserting himself on the turn, Notable Exception drew off to a three length lead with an eighth of a mile to go before extending the lead to five and one-quarter lengths at the end. Since that time, Notable Exception returned to trainer Jack Sisterson's base at Keeneland and put in a strong :59.8 five furlong workout to signal he's getting stronger every day as a two year old should be at this time of year. The 64 Equibase Speed Figure was unremarkable compared to some of the others in this race, but 2-year-olds have been known to improve markedly from one race to the next and that is what I am expecting of this colt. Most of all, Notable Exception has a pedigree which tells me he will run very well in this mile and one-sixteenth race. Using STATS Race Lens to look at what other foals of sire Street Sense have done, I note that thirteen sons and daughters of the sire have run in stakes races for two year olds, with four individual horses having emerged victorious. Perhaps as telling is the fact that Notable Exception has a half-brother (same dam) who won three of his first four races in 2017 and 2018 including the Shared Belief Stakes. As Notable Exception was particularly impressive winning his only race and with no doubts about his ability to stretch out to this distance and run well, I think he can win this race.

Waspirant finished fourth in his debut, in a sprint, at 30 to 1 odds on August 8 then returned just 21 days later at a mile and was an entirely different horse. In that second career start, Waspirant stalked the pacesetter by a half-length through the opening half-mile, was second with an eighth of a mile to go then got up late to win by three-quarters of a length. That was a pretty professional effort for a horse making only the second start of his career. Improving to an 81 figure, Waspirant now adds blinkers, likely as a result of a suggestion by jockey Umberto Rispoli, who missed winning the riding title at the recently concluded Del Mar meeting by one win (behind Flavien Prat). The blinkers should help Waspirant keep down distractions and so he should improve. That improvement, coupled with the fact he is the only horse in the field with a win around two-turns on dirt, Waspirant should be a strong contender down to the wire in the American Pharoah Stakes.

Touchdown Brown won impressively in his debut in June, at four and one-half furlongs, earning a phenomenal 96 figure which was stakes quality. Entering the Graduation Stakes for his next start, Touchdown Brown finished last of seven while never threatening as the six to five betting favorite. Blinkers were added for his following race on September 4 in the I'm Smokin Stakes and the colt responded with a very game effort when beaten only a half-length, rebounding to a 95 figure while four lengths clear of the next horse. Interestingly enough, blinkers come off for the American Pharoah but that's likely a method to curtail the colt's early speed and get him to relax as he may have other company near the front. Still, Touchdown Brown may not be a need-the-lead type as he rallied from third in his debut win without blinkers. As a son of Cairo Prince, there's little doubt Touchdown Brown will run even better at this longer distance as per STATS Race Lens the sire has produced five dirt route stakes winners from 13 individual horses which have competed at this level. With the ground saving rail and a potential pace battle on the front end, Touchdown Brown could be rallying strongly to win.

Spielberg and Get Her Number are notable for a couple of reasons but I feel they don't have the same probability to win compared to Notable Exception, Waspirant or Touchdown Brown. Both fit as proven competitive in stakes but both wear blinkers and appear to have the same need-the-lead style which means they could run faster than average in the early stages and be vulnerable to being passed late. Spielberg finished second in his debut with an 85 figure then second again in the Del Mar Futurity. In both races he was beaten by Dr. Schivel, whose connections recently announced is getting the rest of the year off to prepare for the Road to the Kentucky Derby in 2021. Get Her Number won his debut at five furlongs on turf in August with an 86 figure then stretched out to a mile, also on grass, in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes three weeks ago. In that race Get Her Number led easily in the early stages then had to fight head-and-head starting with a quarter mile to go, eventually settling for fourth but beaten by a pair of noses for the runner-up spot. Also worth mentioning is Weston, who won at four and one-half furlongs in his debut in June with a 93 figure, but then in spite of winning the Best Pal Stakes at six furlongs regressed to an 84 figure then again to 77 when third and nearly four lengths behind runner-up Spielberg in the Del Mar Futurity earlier this month.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Dyn O Mite (84) and Rombauer (85).

Win Contenders:
Notable Exception
Waspirant
Touchdown Brown

American Pharoah Stakes – Grade 1
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, September 26 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Two Year Olds
Purse: $300,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Notable Exception Could Post The Upset In American Pharoah Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Equibase Analysis: War Of Will, March To The Arch Stand Out In Woodbine Mile

The Grade 1, $1 million Ricoh Woodbine Mile is always a highly anticipated fixture as the northern hemisphere transitions from summer to fall and this year's edition is no exception. A “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Mile, this year's edition drew a strong field of eight, led by a pair of standouts from the barn of Mark Casse in War of Will and March to the Arch. War of Will is one of those, perhaps best remembered for winning the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes in 2019. However, the talented colt who leads the field in career earnings at $1.7 million, ran on turf in the first four races of his career and enters the race off a win on grass in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile in July. March to the Arch proved he belonged in top company on grass when winning the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes in June, 2019 and renewed that form last month when victorious in the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes at Woodbine.

Admiralty Pier finished second in the King Edward and certainly fits in this field as a contender, as does recent Grade 3 Vigil Stakes runner-up Olympic Runner. Armistice Day won the Toronto Cup Stakes in 2019, the same race March to the Arch won the previous year, and makes his third start off a layoff so he may have a say in the outcome as well. Value Proposition (GB) has just five races under his belt but his third place effort in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes this summer suggests he has enough talent to be a factor. Even more lightly raced is Shirl's Speight, who has run two races to date. However, this three year old who was considered for the Kentucky Derby earlier this month is a perfect two-for-two in his career and has potential to surprise a few people with another top effort.

Last, but certainly not least, is the mare Starship Jubilee, who is second in career earnings at $1.6 million. Starship Jubilee has won 18 races in her career including six on the Woodbine turf. She enters the race off a fourth place effort in the Grade 1 Diana Stakes at Saratoga and won the Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes prior to that and a repeat of that effort, or when winning the Grade 1 E. P. Taylor Stakes last October at Woodbine, gives her a more than decent shot at being in the thick of the action at the finish in this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

War of Will may be best known for winning the Preakness Stakes in 2019 but when considering his chances to win this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile on turf one need look no further than his races before getting on the Road to the Derby last year, and his most recent starts. Being by a tremendous turf sire in War Front, War of Will began his career on turf in the fall of 2018, finishing third before entering the Summer Stakes still as a maiden in only the second start of his career. Nearly pulling off the upset at 10/1 in that race when leading late before settling for second, War of Will then nearly won the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland when fourth in a blanket finish on the wire. After a fifth place finish in the 2018 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and after breaking his maiden on dirt, War of Will set his sights on the Kentucky Derby, winning the Lecomte Stakes and Risen Star Stakes before poorer efforts in the Louisiana Derby and an eighth place finish in the Kentucky Derby. After rebounding to win the Preakness, War of Will finished third or worse in five races on dirt before returning to the turf. The first of those efforts came in the Shoemaker Mile in May in which he raced close up early before tiring to fifth in a ten horse field. A little of six weeks later, War of Will arguably ran his best race ever, gamely rallying in the stretch to win the Maker's Mark Mile by a nose and earning a 115 Equibase Speed Figure, the best winning figure of his career. The reason for that effort appears to be the removal of blinkers for that race so there is every reason to believe the effort, and its winning result, are repeatable, making War of Will the one to beat in this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

March to the Arch is also a strong contender to win the Ricoh Woodbine Mile. On six occasions in 21 career turf races, March to the Arch has come out on top. The best of those came last year came when he won the Wise Dan Stakes with a strong 104  figure. However, as a five year old March to the Arch has run even better. In his second start of 2020, March to the Arch fought gamely and lost by a nose and a head in the Tampa Bay Stakes with a career-best 115 figure. Following a poor 10th place effort in this year's Shoemaker Mile, March to the Arch was only beaten two lengths although sixth when defending his title in the Wise Dan before returning to Woodbine last month, where he won the Toronto Cup Stakes in 2018. Prepping for the Ricoh Woodbine Mile last month in the King Edward Stakes, March to the Arch was quite impressive in rallying from last in the field of eight to assert himself late and win by two and one-quarter lengths. The 112 figure was the second best last race figure in the field, bettered only by that of War of Will, who is also trained by Mark Casse. Getting the ground saving rail for this race, March to the Arch appears to be the biggest challenge to War of Will and has every right to win his second straight graded stakes in a row at the distance of one mile on turf.

Admiralty Pier led from the start in the King Edward and although beaten by two and one-quarter lengths at the end by March to the Arch ran one of the best races of his career. Earning a 109 figure for in the King Edward, Admiralty Pier is likely to be the controlling speed in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile. He won the Tampa Bay Derby with a career-best 115 figure in February, defeating March to the Arch in the process, and he's on a pattern to get back to that type of effort as he earned a 103 figure when second in the Connaught Cup in July before a 109 figure in the King Edward. As such, we should not rule out the possibility Admiralty Pier could post the upset in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Armistice Day (103), Olympic Runner (99), Shirl's Speight (97) Starship Jubilee (119 in 2018) and Value Proposition (GB) (99).

Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
War of Will
March to the Arch
Admiralty Pier

Ricoh Woodbine Mile – Grade 1
Race 9 at Woodbine
Saturday, September 19 – Post Time 5:59 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

The post Equibase Analysis: War Of Will, March To The Arch Stand Out In Woodbine Mile appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Equibase Analysis: Hierarchy Could Best Zulu Alpha In Kentucky Turf Cup

The Grade 3, $1 million Calumet Farm Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes drew a full field of 12, plus four also-eligibles. Leading the field is Zulu Alpha, arguably the best of the North American based horses that specialize in these races run at the marathon distance of one mile and one-half and farther. If not for his defeat by a neck in March, Zulu Alpha would have a perfect four-for-four record on the year including victories in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational in January, the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida Stakes in February and the Grade 2 Elkhorn Stakes in July.

Eleven horses will try to beat the likely betting choice, including Arklow, who won this race in 2017 and who finished second to Zulu Alpha in the Turf Cup last year. However, Arklow enters this race off poor fourth and sixth place efforts and is adding blinkers for the first time in hopes of reversing his recent non-threatening efforts. Red Knight is a horse proven at this distance and beyond, having won the Point of Entry Stakes last October and the two-mile H. Allen Jerkens Stakes in December of 2018. Another with a chance to compete is Postulation, most recently beaten three-quarters of a length when second to Zulu Alpha in the Elkhorn.

Then there's Hierarchy, entering the race off a second of 11 finish in the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup Stakes last month at Ellis Park. Many of the rest have yet to run well at this distance or in stakes but could jump up to compete on this occasion. He's No Lemon could be one of those as he recently won at the distance of 11 furlongs on turf and last summer was placed first via a disqualification in the mile and one-half Bald Eagle Derby. The rest of the field consists of American Tattoo (ARG), Bundibunan, Celerity, Changi, Eons, Grand Journey, Perfect Tapatino (FR), Standard Deviation, Surprise Twist and Tintoretto (GER).

There's no doubt Zulu Alpha is the one to beat and therefore a legitimate betting favorite, but I think Hierarchy is up to the task of posting the upset win in this year's Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes. Hierarchy has run two “A” races in a row, arguably the two best races of his career, winning the first of the two then finishing second (beaten a half-length) in the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup Stakes in his most recent start. Both efforts earned Hierarchy 110 Equibase Speed Figures. Zulu Alpha earned a 110 figure nearly winning the Pan American Stakes in March and a 105 figure winning the Elkhorn Stakes in July so Hierarchy fits with the favorite.

Additionally, the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup has already become a “KEY RACE”, indicated by two or more horses having come back to win since that race. Winner Factor This almost won the Grade 1 Turf Classic last weekend at Churchill, which is not the reason the race is a key race but indicates how productive the race was. The fourth place finisher, Ry's the Guy, won strongly last weekend at Churchill Downs and both the eighth and 11th place finishers have since won. The horse Hierarchy beat for second has not run back yet but with the winner and fourth place finishers having run very well, I think Hierarchy can do the same and win. Jockey Corey Lanerie was up for both recent big efforts and rides back and that's another positive sign. Additionally, Hierarchy put in a strong four furlong (47.8) workout in preparation for this race so he's fit and ready to run big. Last but not least, Hierarchy was entered to run in the $300,000 Tapit Stakes on Wednesday and his trainer (Joe Sharp) opted for this race instead, likely figuring with the horse in top form he could run well enough to win.

Zulu Alpha won the 2019 Turf Cup over Arklow by three lengths but didn't run as well subsequently in the Turf Classic or Breeders' Cup Turf. Rested three months, Zulu Alpha began his seven year old campaign with a strong win in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, earning a career-best 119  figure in the process. After duplicating that figure and effort in the Mac Diarmida Stakes in February, Zulu Alpha lost a heartbreaker in the Pan American Stakes by a neck after battling for the lead the entire last eighth of a mile. Rested three and one-half months, Zulu Alpha returned in the Elkhorn Stakes this past July and won more decisively than the three-quarter length margin of victory makes it appear. However, his figure did regress to 105 after 110 in the Pan American. Freshened two months again and proven capable of winning big races off this kind of layoff, Zulu Alpha is certainly the one to beat on paper and as a horse who shows up every time I think he has every right to win.

Postulation, Red Knight and Grand Journey are three more with a decent chance to compete at least for the minor awards, and it's not out of the question one of them could post the upset if everything goes their way. Postulation has run 11 times at marathon distances in his career, winning twice and finishing second three times. The most recent of those efforts came when leading from the start in the Elkhorn Stakes before being passed late by Zulu Alpha and finishing three-quarters of a length behind in second. That effort earned a 105 figure, and in 2018 at the distance in the Point of Entry Stakes Postulation earned a 112 figure so a top effort puts him right there with the main contenders. Red Knight won the 2019 Point of Entry Stakes with a 108 figure and was second, beaten a half-length, in the 2019 Elkhorn so fits at this level and distance. Not seen since finishing fourth of 11 in the McKnight Stakes in January, Red Knight also won the two mile H. Allen Jerkens Stakes in 2018 so he's a true “stayer” who must be respected as a contender.

Then there's Grand Journey, who will likely be one of the longshots in the field. He started out his career in claiming races but won three straight last spring and summer on the grass, the best of those earning a 107 figure. In his third race of the year this past June, Grand Journey won at the distance of one mile and one-sixteenth on turf and earned a 105 figure. Trainer Mike Maker claimed the horse from that race then put him in a stakes race on July 8. Although fourth in that race, Grand Journey was beaten a nose and a head for second and tied his previous best 107 figure. Maker, who also saddles Zulu Alpha, has a knack for finding horses he can turn into successful turf stakes runners and I have a suspicion Grand Journey may be one of those and can run better than his high odds suggest he can. North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. sees fit to ride and that's significant. Also of significance is the fact that Grand Journey is by Giant's Causeway, who has produced a number of top turf runners including 2019 Horse of the Year Bricks and Mortar. For those reasons I plan to at least make a win and place bet on Grand Journey at likely very high odds.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is American Tattoo (ARG), Arklow, Bundibunan, Celerity, Changi, Eons, Grand Journey, Perfect Tapatino (FR), Standard Deviation, Surprise Twist and Tintoretto (GER).

Main Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Hierarchy
Zulu Alpha

Secondary win contenders and in-the-money contenders:
Postulation
Red Knight
Grand Journey

Calumet Farm Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes – Grade 3
Race 10 at Kentucky Downs
Saturday, September 12 – Post Time 6:04 PM E.T.
One Mile and One-Half on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

The post Equibase Analysis: Hierarchy Could Best Zulu Alpha In Kentucky Turf Cup appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post