Ellis Starr | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Performer Appears Ready For Spotlight In Cigar Mile

This Saturday's Grade 1, $250,000 Cigar Mile Handicap drew a field of nine and will likely be run on a wet racetrack given the weather forecast near Aqueduct.

Among the nine, five are millionaires, led by Firenze Fire ($2.2 million), who won the Grade 1 Vosburgh Invitational Stakes in September. However, Firenze Fire has only won once on a wet track in five races and finished 11th and fourth in his last two stakes on the type of surface he's likely to be running over in the Cigar Mile.
Another millionaire is Snapper Sinclair ($1.3 million), who moves back to the main track after a pair of in-the-money finishes on turf including a second place in the Tourist Mile this past summer.
Mr. Buff is a horse who likes to lead early, resulting in 15 wins in 40 starts and $1.2 million in the bank. He has a liking for off tracks with three wins but nearly all of his 15 career wins have been racked up against New York breds only and he finished fifth in his two tries in graded stakes this year.
Mind Control ($1 million) put together three straight graded stakes wins from August 2019 through March of this year including the Grade 3 Tom Fool Stakes at Aqueduct but hasn't threatened to win in five races since then, two of those over sloppy tracks.
Similarly, True Timber ($1 million) has now gone winless in 13 races since September of 2018 although he did finish third in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes in August over a sloppy track.
Majestic Dunhill won the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Handicap in October and returns on five days rest following a seventh place effort in the Grade 3 Fall Highweight Handicap last Sunday.
Three-year-old King Guillermo won the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby in March before a second place finish in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby in May and makes his return to the races in the Cigar Mile.
Bon Raison has won 11 of 44 races but has never won a stakes race.
Last but certainly not least is Performer, who has won five races in a row going back to June, 2019, including the Grade 3 Discovery Stakes in November of 2019, before a win in October following 11 months off.

Performer lost the first start of his career in November, 2018 and has not lost a race since. Moving straight through his first two allowance conditions in the summer of 2019, Performer improved to earn 105 and 106 Equibase Speed Figures before a new career-best figure in November of last year when victorious in the Discovery Stakes at Aqueduct. Rested for 11 months, Performer returned as if he had never been away to win a classified allowance race in mid-October with a 109 figure effort. Joel Rosario has been aboard for every race since the debut, all wins, and rides again. With the ground saving rail and the ability to take up a stalking spot from the start behind likely early leader Mr. Buff, and with logical improvement off his comeback effort in October, Performer should be very tough to beat in this year's Cigar Mile Handicap.

King Guillermo proved his 49-1 upset win in the Tampa Bay Derby was no fluke when clearly second in the Arkansas Derby on what would have otherwise been Kentucky Derby day in May. Although regressing a bit to a 101 figure in the Arkansas Derby from the 110 earned in the Tampa Bay Derby, King Guillermo proved he belongs in top company. Rested since May, King Guillermo put in a very strong pair of half-mile drills at his home base in south Florida, the first of the two the best of 59 on the day and the second the best of 38, suggesting he may be able to do what Performer did in his recent comeback off a long layoff, and that is run as if he had never been away at all.

Snapper Sinclair has more second place finishes (six) than wins (five) in his career but he is competitive quite often and may be the one finishing fastest of all in the Cigar Mile. Snapper Sinclair ran well when second in the Essex Mile Handicap in March on a sloppy track with a 107 figure, similarly missing by a head on a muddy track in the Fifth Season Stakes in January with the same figure. This fall, Snapper Sinclair has run even better, earning a 114 figure when second (beaten three-quarters of a length) in the Tourist Mile Stakes. That race was on turf, but having run so well on dirt earlier this year, I think Snapper Sinclair could get a big piece in this race in his current form.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Bon Raison (116), Firenze Fire (111), Mr. Buff (119), Majestic Dunhill (112), Mind Control (113) and True Timber (113).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Performer
King Guillermo
Snapper Sinclair

Cigar Mile Handicap – Grade 1
Race 10 at Aqueduct
Saturday, Dec. 5 – Post Time 4:13 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $250,000

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Equibase Analysis: Giving Blitzkrieg A Slight Edge In Seabiscuit Handicap

The Grade 2, $200,000 Seabiscuit Handicap this Saturday at Del Mar brings together a big field of 13 turf horses from around North America in what should be an extraordinary race to watch and to wager on. There should be no clear cut favorite among the group and many horses should offer betting value:

Leading the field in career earnings at $1.8 million is Next Shares, who posted the 27 to 1 upset winning the 2019 Seabiscuit but who is winless this year in six races. Close at hand in terms of career accomplishments is Bowies Hero, who has earned more than $1.5 million with his last big win coming in the 2019 Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile.
Next is My Boy Jack, who has banked more than three-quarters of a million. Starting his career on dirt, My Boy Jack was a top 3-year-old in 2018, including a fifth place effort in the Kentucky Derby before going on the sidelines in the fall of 2019 and making his return to the races in this race.
Flavius appears to be a strong contender, having won the Tourist Mile Stakes this past summer before a troubled effort in the Shadwell Turf Mile.

Then there is a trio of grade three winners hoping to step up to this grade two level. Anothertwistafate is one of those trying turf for the first time and just having returned from 16 months off this summer to win the Grade 3 Longacres Mile Handicap. Count Again won the Grade 3 Singspiel Stakes in September before a fourth place effort in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer Stakes so appears to fit nicely here. Blitzkrieg started his career in the United States before spending last winter in Dubai then returning stateside in May. In his second start back from a layoff, Blitzkrieg won the Grade 3 American Stakes and he was most recently fourth in the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile after setting sizzling fractions from the start.
In terms of recent success, One Bad Boy enters the Seabiscuit off a win in the Lure Stakes last month, in which Majestic Eagle was second. Camino Del Paraiso just won the Rolling Green Stakes and Joseph T. Grace Stakes in succession and was second in the Grade 3 Thunder Road Stakes this past winter so could be in the thick of the action again.
Spirit Animal, one of two from the barn of Chad Brown (the other is Flavius) has won two of three this year and is stepping up from allowance company, having finished fifth in his only previous stakes try.
Imperador, who won a pair of G1 races in his native Argentina, made his North American debut last month and finished second so could improve.
Tartini, who has been racing against easier foes but won his last two races, rounds out the field.

To be honest, there are a number of horses who can run well enough to win this year's Seabiscuit Handicap, but in this case I'm going to concentrate on three I think stick out just a bit against the rest. They are Blitzkrieg, Flavius and Imperador.

Although it appears on paper both Blitzkrieg and One Bad Boy can only win when they lead from the start, and therefore there will be an early pace battle of epic proportions, I do not believe that to be the case. One Bad Boy, who hails from the Richard Baltas barn, the same as Next Shares, is the one who is more likely to lead early as he breaks from the 10 post. That puts Blitzkrieg in the catbird seat, and looking at many of his earlier races that will work out well. Before leaving California for Dubai this past winter, Blitzkrieg showed the ability to relax in the early stages, such as when winning the San Francisco Stakes with a rock-solid 111 Equibase Speed Figure.

Perhaps overmatched when returned to trainer Doug O' Neill's base in southern California and placed in the Shoemaker Mile, Blitzkrieg returned to stakes winning form in the American Stakes in June, duplicating the 111 figure earned 14 months earlier. Two races later he set a nearly unbelievable early pace in the Tourist Mile when he ran the opening six furlongs in 1:07.8 before tiring to sixth behind eventual winner Flavius. Then, last month in the City of Hope Mile, Blitzkrieg once again went too fast early for his own good, running the opening six furlongs in 1:08.6. Still, Blitzkrieg was beaten only a head for third and earned a career-best 114 figure. In the Seabiscuit, with red hot jockey Abel Cedillo riding back after getting familiar with him and with One Bad Boy able to provide a solid target, Blitzkrieg should be able to pass the tiring leader in the stretch and hold off the others for the upset win.

If the early pace scenario above does not pan out, particularly if Blitzkrieg and One Bad Boy can't avoid battling for the early lead on sizzling fast fractions, Flavius appears most likely to pass them for the win. After returning from six months off and finishing third with a 109 when beaten less than a length, in the First Defence Stakes in June, Flavius won the Tourist Mile Stakes. That race doesn't carry a graded designation yet but it will, considering the $712,000 purse and the quality of the field. Putting that in perspective, the 115 figure Flavius earned in the Tourist Mile is better than the 111 figure 2019 Seabiscuit winner Next Shares earned. Returning one month later in the Shadwell Turf Mile, Flavius found himself in traffic at a critical stage in the stretch run and lost any chance he had to win, eventually finishing fifth. Getting a jockey change to North American leading rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. and with plenty of pace to run at just like he had in the Tourist Mile, Flavius could be in high gear and get up for the win in the Seabiscuit Handicap.

Imperador is an intriguing horse who is very likely to go to post at high odds. Winner of three of eight races in his native Argentina, Imperador made his U.S. debut in September at Churchill Downs in a third level allowance race and ended up second, beaten a half-length, at the end. However, Imperador ran the same kind of race that day I expect Blitzkrieg may run as he sat in second from the start before making up 2 1/2 lengths to lead in the stretch. In this case Imperador was passed late, but not only was he extremely game in holding second by a neck on the wire, he should be more physically fit in his second start back from six months off. Based in Kentucky with trainer Paulo Lobo, Imperador reminds me of another one of the trainer's top turf stars, Ivar, who posted the 14-1 upset in the Shadwell Turf Mile in October, beating Flavius and Bowies Hero in the process.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Anothertwistafate (105), Bowies Hero (118), Camino Del Paraiso (113), Count Again (108), Majestic Eagle (113), My Boy Jack (110), Next Shares (115), One Bad Boy (112), Spirit Animal (113) and Tartini (101).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Blitzkrieg
Flavius
Imperador

Seabiscuit Handicap – Grade 2
Race 7 at Del Mar
Saturday, Nov. 28 – Post Time 6:30 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth on Turf
Three-Year-Olds and Upward
Purse: $200,000

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Equibase Analysis: Ride A Comet May Be Able To End Pink Lloyd’s Win Streak In Kennedy Road

The field for Saturday's Grade 2, $175,000 Kennedy Road Stakes at Woodbine is led by Pink Lloyd, a fan favorite who has racked up 26 wins from 32 races all on the all-weather main track at Woodbine, including all four during his 2020 campaign. Among the other six in the Kennedy Road field, three have been victims to Pink Lloyd's tremendous will to win, while three others are facing him for the first time.

Leading that group is Grade 2 Nearctic Stakes winner Silent Poet, with an accomplished record consisting of 10 wins in 18 races. Then there's Ride a Comet, winner of the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby in the summer of 2018. Ride a Comet returned from a 25 month layoff last month at Woodbine and won as if he had never been away. Souper Stonehenge is another horse never seeing the back end of Pink Lloyd to date. He's never run in a stakes race but enters the race off a win in his second start back from 11 months off.

Dixie's Gamble has won six of nine races when Pink Lloyd wasn't in the race, including the Overskate Stakes last fall but he has been soundly defeated in four confrontations with the likely favorite. Similarly, Eskiminzin has been defeated in all five matchups against Pink Lloyd and has won six times from 26 other races. Roaring Forties has finished fourth and seventh behind Pink Lloyd this year and was fifth in the Grade 3 Durham Cup Stakes in his most recent start.

Ride a Comet may be the right horse to end Pink Lloyd's perfect four-for-four streak this year. This talented horse won five of his first 10 races, including the Del Mar Derby in September, 2018, defeating multiple stakes winner River Boyne in the process. With whatever put him on the sidelines from that race until his comeback last month behind him, Ride a Comet returned in extraordinary fashion with a visually impressive effort that saw him go from seventh and six lengths behind the leader on the turn to the front of the field by the eighth pole. Considering he was ridden out to victory, it appears there's a lot of gas left in the tank and logically the horse should improve markedly second off the layoff.

Since that race, Ride a Comet has put in three exceptional workouts at Woodbine including one which was the second best of 41 on the day. When he won the Del Mar Derby at the end of his three year old season, Ride a Comet earned a 110 Equibase Speed Figure which is comparable to the 111 figure Pink Lloyd earned winning this race in 2019, and therefore Ride a Comet gets top billing.

Silent Poet and leading Woodbine jockey Justin Stein should be able to take advantage of an otherwise paceless race and go to the front easily at the start of the race. Silent Poet has earned nearly all of his wins when leading or pressing the pace in second from the start, including his last two races. The first of the two was an allowance race with a stakes level $100,000 purse and the second was the Nearctic Stakes at this distance on grass. Those efforts yielded 103 and 104 figures which, with slight improvement, put Silent Poet in the thick of the action down to the wire in the Kennedy Road. I'm not concerned about his duplicating those efforts on the main track as he was second in the Sir Barton Stakes the last time he ran on the main track at Woodbine.

Pink Lloyd's accomplishments speak for themselves, as he's dominated the sprint stakes ranks at Woodbine for many years. With streaks of five in a row in 2019 and five in a row coming into this race, including all four races this year, he's proven to have an attitude about winning which matches his ability. Pink Lloyd was second in the 2016 edition of this race, won it in 2017, skipped it in 2018 and won it again in 2019. Still, except for last year's Kennedy Road in which he earned a 111 figure, his four wins this year earned 103, 102, 92 and 101 figures, which aren't dominant in any way when compared against Ride a Comet (99 last race and 110 before the layoff), Silent Poet (104 last race) and Souper Stonehenge (102 last race). All three of those horses have never faced Pink Lloyd previously and all appear to be as capable of winning as the likely betting favorite. That's not to say Pink Lloyd can't rise to the occasion and win just as he's done time and time again.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in a similar race, is Dixie's Gamble (105), Eskiminzin (98), Roaring Forties (93) and Souper Stonehenge (102).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Ride a Comet
Silent Poet
Pink Lloyd

Kennedy Road Stakes – Grade 2
Race 9 at Woodbine
Saturday, November 21 – Post Time 5:28 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs on All-Weather
3-Year-Olds and Upward
Purse: $175,000

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Equibase Analysis: Positive Danger A Live Longshot In Mrs. Revere

The Grade 2, $200,000 Mrs. Revere Stakes features a group of seven fillies, all 3-year-olds, on Saturday at Churchill Downs. In the similar Grade 3 Valley View Stakes last month, Stunning Sky defeated Princess Grace by a half-length, with How Ironic another half-length back in third and with Witez two and one-half lengths further back in fourth. There's no telling if some of those positions may be reversed in the Mrs. Revere, as well as if one of the new faces may prevail.

One of those is Hendy Woods, entering the race off a sixth place finish in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes and prior to that second in the Grade 3 Edgewood Stakes over the Churchill Downs turf course. Pass the Plate won about one month ago, but on dirt in a race scheduled for turf initially. Her best finish at this level was a runner-up effort in the Bourbonette Oaks in March. Positive Danger is a lightly raced filly trying stakes company for the first time and having won the only two times she's run over a mile on turf in her career.

Hendy Woods started her career winning two in a row, both turf routes, in January and March before a seventh place finish in the Regret Stakes in June on the Churchill Downs sod. Rebounding with a win in the Indiana Grand Stakes with a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure, Hendy Woods then closed for second in the similar Edgewood Stakes on this turf course, improving just a bit to a 101 figure. Trying some of the best three year old turf fillies in the country in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes last month, an invitation only race, Hendy Woods finished sixth of seven but nevertheless was beaten just three and one-quarter lengths at the end. That effort resulted in a new career-best 107 figure which is tied for the best in the field with the figure Stunning Sky earned winning the Valley View Stakes six days later. Getting the ground saving rail and with red hot Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle for the first time, as well as noting Queen Elizabeth winner Harvey's Lil Goil ran very well when third in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf last weekend, Hendy Woods could be tough to beat in this year's Mrs. Revere Stakes.

Positive Danger is a live longshot in my opinion because she's going to be in front from the start, perhaps with no challengers. A perfect two-for-two in turf routes, Positive Danger earned a career-best 87 figure for her most recent win, in a first level allowance race last month. However, as a 3-year-old taking a step from allowance to run well in stakes is not unheard of. For example, Princess Grace won at the first allowance level two races back in September, then improved to nearly post the upset in the Valley View when coming up a half-length short of Stunning Sky. With an inside post to help ease her way to the front from the opening bell, Positive Danger has the potential to get a very easy lead, get brave, and perhaps hang on for the upset win.

Stunning Sky and Princess Grace finished first and second, respectively, in the similar Valley View Stakes last month at Keeneland, both earning 107 figures. Stunning Sky has now run 11 times, winning three, while Princess Grace has only run three times, winning twice and finishing second in the other. Stunning Sky closed from ninth in the Valley View but that was a function of the very fast pace which saw her further back early than in her previous starts when she was no more than fifth at any stage. Princess Grace rallied from fifth in the Valley View to make the lead with an eighth of a mile to go, before the more seasoned Stunning Sky ran her down in the final yards. Both fillies have a will to win and the ability to back that up and it would be no surprise if both are in the thick of the action at the end of this race.

The rest of the field, with their best  Equibase Speed Figures, is How Ironic (106), Pass the Plate (103) and Witez (102).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Hendy Woods
Positive Danger
Stunning Sky
Princess Grace

Mrs. Revere Stakes – Grade 2
Race 10 at Churchill Downs
Saturday, November 14 – Post Time 5:36 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth on Turf
Fillies, 3-Year-Olds
Purse: $200,000

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