Ellis Starr | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Parnelli Poised For Upset In Sham Stakes

Five horses will line up for Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park, one of the first Road to the Derby points races of the New Year. Bob Baffert, who won the race last year with Authentic, saddles a pair in Life is Good and Medina Spirit, both of which are making their second career starts and won their debut efforts convincingly. Similarly, trainer John Shirreffs saddles last out maiden winner Parnelli and G1 American Pharoah Stakes fourth place finisher Waspirant, who broke his maiden prior to that. Uncle Boogie rounds out the field, coming into the race off a second place finish in the G3 Bob Hope Stakes.

With only five entered, this kind or race will be one in which tactics are everything. Additionally, with three of the five (Life is Good, Medina Spirit and Uncle Boogie) stretching out in distance and trying two turns for the first time, the pace could be faster than average. Life is Good earned the best Equibase Speed Figure in the field, 106, winning his one and only race by nine lengths leading from start to finish. However, he ran the first six furlongs in :44.8 which, if repeated in the Sham likely means he would be vulnerable to being passed late.

Parnelli led from the start and through the opening half-mile in his first two races at a mile, missing by a neck in the latter of the two races with a very strong 105 figure on par with Life is Good. Then in his most recent start, Parnelli relaxed in third in the early stages, about one and one-half lengths from the leader, before drawing off to win by nearly six lengths. Therefore it stands to reason Parnelli might be the one closest to Life is Good in the early stages and if indeed that colt goes too fast early, Parnelli is the one to pass Life is Good and win the Sham Stakes.

Medina Spirit earned a 99 figure winning his debut three weeks ago, at the distance of five and one-half furlongs. Although improvement can be expected off the experience of that debut, it may be a lot to ask to stretch out two and one-half furlongs (more than a quarter mile) and run as well compared to horses with experience at the distance like Parnelli or a horse like Life is Good who also can improve and who earned a figure seven points higher in his debut.

Uncle Boogie won his debut at five and one-half furlongs in October, as impressively as either Medina Spirit or Life is Good, but only earned a 79 figure. However, he improved to 84 in his second start (when the runner-up) then repeated that 84 figure effort when rallying from sixth to second in the Bob Hope Stakes in mid-November. Likely to be last of the five in the early stages, if the early pace is contested and much faster than average, Uncle Boogie could be passing them all for the upset win.

Waspirant rounds out the field, having won at this mile trip in August in his second career start with an 81 figure, then a non-threatening fourth in the American Pharoah Stakes at the end of September. It's a tough question to ask a horse to come back off three months in a route against horses who have shown to be faster and which have run much more recently.

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Parnelli
Life is Good

Sham Stakes – Grade 3
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, January 2, 2021 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
One Mile
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $100,000

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Equibase Analysis: Nashville Stands Out In Runhappy Malibu Stakes

The holiday present the racing world opens on the day after Christmas is always a fantastic afternoon of racing on opening day of the winter-spring meeting at Santa Anita. The bright shiny bow on that present is, as usual, the Grade 1, $300,000 Runhappy Malibu Stakes.

Six horses are entered and each is special in his own right, with five of the sextet stakes winners. In terms of the level of stakes won by some of the entrants, we have to start with the Bob Baffert trained Charlatan, who crossed the finish line first in the rescheduled G1 Arkansas Derby in May, only to be stripped of that victory thereafter for a medication violation. Bob Baffert, who has won the Malibu three times previously, also saddles Thousand Words, winner of the 2019 G2 Los Alamitos Futurity as well as the Shared Belief Stakes this past summer.

Collusion Illusion won the G1 Bing Crosby Stakes in August so among the three graded stakes winners he is the only one with a win in a sprint like the Malibu. Then there's Nashville, undefeated in three starts including the Perryville Stakes last month in the sizzling time of 1:07.8. Independence Hall is no slouch, having won the G3 Nashua Stakes in November 2019 and back in form off a win last month following seven months off. Express Train has been first or second in all four of his races at a mile or less, and although this will be his first try in a graded stakes around one turn he can't be ruled out as a contender.

In this handicapper's opinion, this year's Malibu Stakes is Nashville's to lose. His effort in the Perryville Stakes last month at Keeneland was scintillating, winning by 3 1/2 lengths when galloping the last few yards after having run his opponents off their feet. The track that day was fast but fair and the 115 Equibase Speed Figure bears that out. Having earned a 106 figure winning his debut in September at Saratoga, then 113 five weeks later, Nashville is lightly enough raced that we have likely not seen his best yet. Since the Perryville, Nashville has put in three sizzling workouts at trainer Steve Asmussen's winter base at Fair Grounds in Louisiana, consisting of three five furlongs workouts, the most recent in :58.8 which was the best of 20 on the day. With the trainer's number one jockey Ricardo Santana in the saddle for the Malibu as he was for the Perryville, and with no horse in the field faster in the first quarter mile, Nashville may be running against the record book in terms of time in this year's race.

Independence Hall is the only horse I could see beating Nashville, based on how the race is likely to be run, and based on the fact he's making his second start back after seven months off as well as coming off a career-best effort. Independence Hall won the first three races of his career starting back in September of 2019. His second and third career wins came in stakes, all around one turn including the Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct last November with a 107 figure. Next winning the Jerome Stakes and putting himself into the early Derby picture, Independence Hall finished second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, before a poor fifth place effort in the Florida Derby. Away from the races from the end of March until last month, Independence Hall changed trainers to Michael McCarthy and came back better than ever with a new career-best 108 figure effort at six and one-half furlongs. Likely pointing to this race with that prep, Independence Hall has put in two best of the day workouts since then, the most recent :59 flat for five furlongs which was the best of 83 at the distance on the day. He gets a good outside post in case the pace is hot and with logical improvement off his 108 last race figure could potentially post the upset.

Regarding Charlatan, who is likely to be either the betting favorite, or second betting favorite behind Nashville, there are some serious concerns in my opinion about his probability to win compared to others. First, he hasn't been seen since winning the Arkansas Derby nearly eight months ago and in spite of some excellent workouts, he doesn't stand out based on his best efforts. In the race prior to the Arkansas Derby at Santa Anita in March, Charlatan earned a 108 figure just on par with the figure Independence Hall earned last month and much lower than the 113 and 115 figures Nashville earned in his two most recent races, as well as shy of the 116 figure Collusion Illusion earned winning the Bing Crosby Stakes this summer. Next, in spite of having won this race three times previously, Bob Baffert just does not have a good record with horses coming back from layoffs in the two big races for 3-year-olds on opening weekend – the Malibu Stakes and the La Brea Stakes (for fillies). According to a query I ran using STATS Race Lens, Baffert has not won in seven tries over the last five years with horses coming back from layoffs longer than two months. His most recent win in this race, with McKinzie, came off a layoff of just under two months. Particularly, horses which last ran in May similar to Charlatan fared poorly, such as Lord Nelson (2015), Mor Spirit (2016) and Solomini (2018). With those results in mind I'm taking a stand against Charlatan, also noting he has led from start to finish in all three races to date and there's little doubt he's not going to have the early lead against Nashville.

As to the rest of the field, Express Train earned a career-best figure of 112 when second at a mile in late September over the track before a failed attempt on turf and could return to competitive form back on the main track so could get a piece. Collusion Illusion rallied from seventh to win the Bing Crosby with a 116 figure and before that won the Lazaro Barrera Stakes at the distance of six and one-half furlongs so he could be making up ground late and is another with a shot to finish in-the-money. Thousand Words ran the second worst race of his career when last seen in October, finishing eighth in the Preakness Stakes. His best efforts winning the Shared Belief Stakes and Robert B. Lewis Stakes earned 107 figures but both were two-turn races so he would need to run better than he ever has to beat many of these.

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Nashville
Independence Hall

Runhappy Malibu Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Santa Anita
Saturday, December 26 – Post Time 6:30 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $300,000

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Equibase Analysis: Outadore Looks Tough To Beat In Springboard Mile

Friday's $200,000 Remington Springboard Mile Stakes is a traditional December showcase for 2-year-olds who are just starting out on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, as this race awards a total of 17 points, including 10 to the winner.

Eleven colts and geldings are entered in this race, led by a pair of horses who last competed on Future Stars Friday as part of the Breeders' Cup World Championships last month. Outadore is one of the two, having finished third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf following a victory in the Juvenile Turf Sprint in September. The other is Cowan, runner-up in the G2 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, following a runner-up effort in the Indian Summer Stakes one month earlier.

Game Day Play enters the race off a win in the Clever Trevor Stakes at Remington Park at the end of October and tries two turns for the first time. Number One Dude won the Don C. McNeill Stakes at a mile last month versus Oklahoma-breds and faces open (not restricted) company for the first time. Gushing Oil was sent to the post as the prohibitive favorite in the Clever Trevor but only managed seventh.

Red and Wild missed by a head in the Clever Trevor before stretching out to this mile distance and winning so he appears to be ready to compete. Vim and Vigor was beaten just a half-length by Red N Wild when finishing third in that one mile race and may also be competitive in this situation.

Recent maiden winners Flash of Mischief and Senor Buscador are facing much tougher competition here and are of unknown quality. Saffa's Day earned his maiden win first time out in October in a sprint before a sixth place effort in the Nyquist Stakes. Similarly, Joe Frazier won smartly in his debut sprinting in October but when asked to stretch out to two turns last month faded to third after leading early and was beaten by six lengths.

Outadore was fairly impressive winning the first two starts of his career, including the Juvenile Turf Sprint in a field of 10 in September. Earning a 91 Equibase Speed Figure for that win, Outadore stretched out to a mile on grass for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and ran very well as he lead early and was beaten just a neck for the runner-up spot; the winner drew off by three lengths. That effort was a career-best and field high 109 figure. Although all three of his career races to date have been on turf, I see no reason Outadore won't run as well on dirt as a son of Outwork, who is by exceptional sire Uncle Mo. On the dam's side of his pedigree, two of the dam's other foals have run very well in dirt routes, including Piedi Bianchi, who has earned over half a million dollars. With blinkers off to help him relax and a very strong five furlong workout on dirt coming into this race, plus the ability to be sitting in second or third position early off likely early leader Saffa's Day, Outadore has a big shot to win the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes and put his name in the hat as an early Derby contender.

Cowan will likely have to deal with more traffic than Outadore as he routinely comes from much further back in the pack, but other than that he has a strong probability to compete effectively. In the Juvenile Turf Stakes won by Outadore in September, Cowan rallied nicely but too late when third in new blinkers, then next out rallied fast once again, this time for second in the Indian Summer Stakes. Staying around one turn for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last month, Cowan put in a big late rally which fell just three-quarters of a length short of victory at 11-1 odds. That effort earned Cowan a strong 97 figure which may be good enough to win if Outadore does not repeat or improve off his last race. Jockey Stewart Elliot rides for the first time but has been aboard many of trainer Steve Asmussen's winners at Remington Park in the last year and will likely give Cowan a great trip on his way to an in-the-money finish at the least.

Number One Dude is a perfect three-for-three in his career, including his only try at this mile trip. That win came at Remington Park last month in the Don C. McNeill Stakes. Although that race was restricted to horses bred in Oklahoma, Number One Dude improved 16 points to an 89 figure and with a similar improvement may be capable of running as fast as the two top contenders in this year's Springboard Mile so finishing off a trio of top contenders.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Flash of Mischief (78), Game Day Plan (81), Gushing Oil (83), Joe Frazier (84), Red N Wild (80), Saffa's Day (89), Senor Buscador (77) and Vim and Vigor (79).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Outadore
Cowan
Number One Dude

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Equibase Analysis: Halladay Faces Tough Task In Ft. Lauderdale Stakes

The Grade 2, $200,000 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes this Saturday at Gulfstream Park drew 10 strong turf runners including Halladay, who won the Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap this past summer at Saratoga. Bringing a perfect three-for-three record on the Gulfstream Park turf course into the race, Halladay earned his last four wins leading from start to finish, often running the field off their feet in the early stages then coasting along to the wire.

In the Ft. Lauderdale, Halladay draws the extreme outside post and should have a number of horses inside of him also vying for the lead such as Factor This (winner of the G2 Dinner Party Stakes in October) and Somelikeithotbrown (winner of the G2 Barnard Baruch Handicap in July). That makes for an interesting pace scenario which opens up the door for a number of other contenders.

Spooky Channel, who won the G3 William L. McKnight Stakes last January at Gulfstream Park, may appreciate the pace battle. So could Channel Cat, who won the G2 Bowling Green Stakes in the summer of 2019 and who returns from a nine-month rest. Breaking the Rules nearly won the G3 Canadian Turf Stakes over the course last March and may have a say. Largent won the Bert Allen Stakes when last seen in October and steps into graded stakes company for the first time, as do last out winners Doswell and Tide of the Sea. Last but certainly not least is Delaware, who won the G3 Shadwell Prix Daphnis in France last summer and who most recently was beaten a neck as part of a three-horse photo finish in the Artie Schiller Stakes.

Delaware may have turned a corner in his most recent race, his fourth since importing from Europe. After an eighth place finish at Belmont in June in a stakes race in his North American debut, Delaware finished second in a high level allowance race then shipped to Woodbine to run in the King Edward Stakes, where he was sent to post as the favorite but only managed to finish fifth. Given three months off, Delaware returned in the Artie Schiller Stakes in New York and proceeded to run his best race in the states to date, rallying late to miss winning by a neck and a head. The 107 Equibase Speed Figure is much higher than the 92 figure 2019 Ft. Lauderdale winner Instilled Regard earned and the effort is likely to be improved upon in the colt's second start back after three months away from the races. North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides Delaware right back after his big effort last month. With a contested early pace battle forecast between Halladay, Factor This and Somelikeithotbrown, it is very possible Delaware will be up in time to win.

Spooky Channel will likely be much further back in the early stages than Delaware, but he has the kick to post the upset, just as he did last January when winning the William L. McKnight Handicap. That effort earned a career-best 117, which he duplicated in May winning in a stakes quality allowance race. Jockey Julien Leparoux was aboard for both wins and rides again in the Ft. Lauderdale which portends well for Spooky Channel potentially to post the upset with a last to first rally.

Doswell has never finished worse than second in six career turf races, at distances ranging from seven furlongs to a mile and one-quarter. When returning from an 11-month layoff in August and after changing trainers to Barclay Tagg, Doswell ran the best race of his career with a 97 figure. Nearly two months later in October, Doswell ran even better, improving to a 104 figure. Since shipping to Florida from New York, Doswell put in a sensational workout of five eighths of a mile on turf in 58.6 seconds which was the best of 17 on the day at the distance, suggesting even better may be forthcoming in the Ft. Lauderdale.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Breaking the Rules (110), Channel Cat (108), Factor This (118), Halladay (115), Largent (109), Somelikeithotbrown (117) and Tide of the Sea (102)

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Delaware
Spooky Channel
Doswell

Ft. Lauderdale Stakes – Grade 2
Race 10 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, December 12 – Post Time 4:40 PM E.T.
One and One Eighth Miles on Turf
3-Year-Olds and Upward
Purse: $200,000

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