Ellis Starr | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Concert Tour Looks Tough To Beat In Arkansas Derby

Following an impressive 4 1/4-length win four weeks ago in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Bob Baffert trained Concert Tour leads a field of six in this Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby. This is the last race of the season to award 100 Road to the Kentucky Derby points to the winner, assuring that horse of a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate in three weeks.

Rebel Stakes runner-up Hozier, also trained by Baffert, looks to be competitive once more. Super Stock and Get Her Number finished fourth and seventh, respectively, in the Rebel and look to improve. Super Stock won the Texas Thoroughbred Futurity last summer and although no worse than fourth in four races since is still winless since then.

Get Her Number was victorious in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes last September then skipped the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and his seventh place Rebel effort was his first start in more than five months. Caddo River was sent to post as the 6 to 5 favorite in the Rebel and faded to fifth after pressing Concert Tour from the start. He won the Smarty Jones Stakes in wire-to-wire fashion prior to that. Last Samurai rounds out the field and was beaten 13 lengths when fifth in the Southwest Stakes in his only stakes try.

Leading the field by what could be a figurative, as well as literal, country mile is Concert Tour, who may have a tactical advantage in the Arkansas Derby in that he can win on the front end or from off the pace. Concert Tour won the San Vicente Stakes at the distance of seven furlongs in February in only the second start of his career, showing a lot of maturity when relaxing in third in the early stages before going by the top two pacesetters for the win. That effort earned a career-best, and field high, 106 Equibase Speed Figure. Then in the Rebel Stakes, jockey Joel Rosario took the racetrack away from favorite Caddo River because in spite of drawing the seven post in the gate, Concert Tour had the lead a few strides after the start and never looked back. The 105 figure earned could have been higher but there was no reason to ask him to run all out in the stretch after opening up by four lengths with no threats behind. Returning to Baffert's Southern California base after the Rebel, Concert Tour has continued to work strongly and could easily handle this field to bring his record to a perfect four-for-four, similar to current early Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality, who won the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes one week ago to bring his record to five-for-five.

Hozier passed five horses in the last half-mile of the Rebel Stakes when rallying from seventh to second and although no match for his stablemate it was a credible effort. He earned an 89 figure one race prior that in his two-turn debut second start of his career and he improved considerably to a 99 figure in the Rebel. Hozier is certainly on a pattern to run even better while gaining the 40 Road to the Derby points for finishing second and enabling him to start in the big dance three weeks from now.

Caddo River may have to choose different tactics than were planned for the Rebel to be successful in the Arkansas Derby in order to win but that may not be out of the question. After winning both route starts wire to wire by an average of almost 10 lengths in November and January, the latter in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn with a 101 figure, Caddo River was just not fast enough to beat Concert Tour to the lead in the Rebel and took up a stalking position he had not previously used in a route race from the start. When asked to move up, Caddo River did not have anything to offer and ended up tiring to fifth of eight at the end, regressing to a 95 figure effort. Drawing inside Concert Tour in the gate once more in the Arkansas Derby, either Caddo River will be more intent on getting the lead from Concert Tour and get as brave as that one did in the Rebel¸ or perhaps this time he may show a finishing kick as he did last fall in the second start of his career, in a sprint, when rallying from third and one length back to make the lead before settling for second. In any event, it may be that even if this colt does run his best race it may not be good enough to beat either of the Baffert trainees.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Get Her Number (92), Last Samurai (84) and Super Stock (95).

Win Contenders:
Concert Tour
Hozier

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Equibase Analysis: Weyburn Poised To Validate Gotham Upset In Wood Memorial

Saturday's Grade 1, $750,000 Wood Memorial Presented by Resorts World Casino is the first of three “Road to the Kentucky Derby” prep races within the span of one hour on Saturday, April 3. Except for the Arkansas Derby to be run one week from now, these three races, which include the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, offer the winner a guaranteed spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May by affording the winner 100 points. Even the 40 points the runner-up will earn in these races could be sufficient to help secure a spot among the 20 which will participate in the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports” next month.

The Wood Memorial drew a field of nine, led by the one-two finishers in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes last month in Weyburn and Crowded Trade, respectively. Another stakes winner who may belong is Risk Taking, who won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes in February at Aqueduct but who skipped the Gotham. Brooklyn Strong won the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes over the track at the distance of the Wood Memorial, but it may be a tall order to pick up where he left off following four months on the bench and versus horses which all ran much more recently.

Candy Man Rocket won the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in February before an 11th of 12 finish in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and it may be a stretch to go from next-to-last in that recent race to a top competitor in the Wood Memorial. Market Maven and Bourbonic finished first and second, respectively, in an allowance race at Parx Racing in Pennsylvania but appear overmatched, as does recent maiden winner Dynamic One.

Then there's Prevalence, a strong winner of both starts in his career shipping in to New York from Florida for Godolphin, which already has a significant presence on the “Road to the Derby” with Rebel's Romance (winner of the U.A.E. Derby last weekend), Essential Quality (running in the Blue Grass Stakes), and Proxy.

Weyburn was disregarded by bettors at 46 to 1 odds one month ago in the Gotham Stakes but proved to be an exceptionally tough competitor when winning by a nose. After attending the pace only a half-length behind the leader for the first half-mile, Weyburn engaged for the lead for the rest of the race, first battling head and head with Freedom Fighter then battling nose and nose the entire last eighth of a mile with Crowded Trade. That effort occurring one month ago leads me to believe he will not regress and will move forward to run even better in the Wood Memorial. Considering Weyburn earned a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure, tied for best in the field with Crowded Trade, it would take significant improvement by any other runner except Crowded Trade to run faster than Weyburn demonstrating logical improvement in his second start following three months off. As such, Weyburn gets slight preference among two horses I feel stand out against the rest in terms of their probability to win this race.

Crowded Trade has no knocks, having won in his career debut at the end of January before stepping into stakes company in the Gotham Stakes last month and giving it his all. Third place Gotham finisher Highly Motivated is looking for different scenery this weekend and will run in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. With no other horse having run as fast as either Crowded Trade (or Weyburn) who earned a 105 figure in the Gotham, this lightly raced colt making his third career start has significant improving he can do and must be considered a strong contender to win. As to his breeding to run this nine furlong trip, there's no doubt as a son of More Than Ready that is not an issue as the sire's Catholic Boy won graded stakes at a mile and one-quarter. Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by red hot Eric Cancel, Crowded Trade has every right to turn the tables on Weyburn in their second meeting and move on to the Kentucky Derby in fine form.

Prevalence, like Crowded Trade, has only run twice, and likewise his second race was a one-turn mile in which he ran impressively. After winning his debut by eight lengths in handy fashion with a 99 figure, Prevalence won his second start just as easily by three lengths with a 98 figure but likely could have gone faster. Perhaps more importantly, after he crossed the finish line it was noted by the astute chart caller for Equibase that Prevalence was “urged past the wire for an eighth of a mile or so past the finish.” This is significant, as it shows a plan beforehand between jockey Tyler Gaffalione (who rides in the Wood) and trainer Brendan Walsh (who trained top 3-year-old Maxfield last year) to give the colt experience at running the distance of his next race. Being a son of Medaglia d'Oro, who sired tremendous stakes winners like Songbird and Wonder Gadot, if Prevalence got the foundation for this race as intended, improving enough to win the Wood Memorial is not out of the question.

In case readers are wondering, the reason I'm not considering Risk Taking a win contender has to do with the fact he comes back from two months off after winning the Withers Stakes in February. Although the 102 figure earned in that race may be competitive with the top horses in the Wood if he improves on it, the fact that he skipped the Gotham and most of his opponents ran more recently gives me pause.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Bourbonic (88), Brooklyn Strong (99), Candy Man Rocket (90), Dynamic One (87) and Market Maven (94).

Win Contenders:
Weyburn
Crowded Trade
Prevalence

Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino – Grade 2
Race 10 at Aqueduct
Saturday, April 3 – Post Time 5:58 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $750,000
TV: NBC Sports Network 5:30 – 7:30 PM ET

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Equibase Analysis: Run Classic Poised To Provide Big Upset In Louisiana Derby

This Saturday's Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby is the first “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points system race to offer the winner enough points (100) to guarantee a start in the gate on the first Saturday in May. The winner's share of the $1 million isn't bad either, but in spite of those two incentives only eight horses were entered.

The two most accomplished runners, Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon, have traded wins on the run up to this race. Midnight Bourbon won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January but ended up third in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes four weeks later, that race won by Mandaloun.

Risen Star runner-up Proxy, who also finished second in the Lecomte, will attempt to turn the tables on his rivals. O Besos finished fourth and nearly six lengths behind third place finisher Midnight Bourbon in the Risen Star and may have his work cut out for him, as may both Rightandjust and Starrininmydreams, who finished sixth and ninth, respectively, in the race.

Hot Rod Charlie ships in from California off a big effort when beaten a neck and a nose for the win in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and certainly fits with the best in this field. Last but certainly not least, Run Classic steps into stakes competition off a maiden win over the track in his second career start.

It is still early in the season, so much so that horses which have only run a couple of times can win Kentucky Derby prep races like the Louisiana Derby. This was evidenced last weekend when Concert Tour won the Rebel Stakes in only the third start of his career and his first in a two-turn race. Run Classic has already run two turns so that is not a question and in that regard he is one step further along as compared to Concert Tour. Run Classic debuted in mid-January in a sprint and finished second of 10, earning a 94 Equibase Speed Figure in the process.

Stretched out to a mile and one-sixteenth for career start number two four weeks later, on the same day as the Risen Star, Run Classic stalked the pacesetter while third in the early stages, put in a quick burst to get to the front with an eighth of a mile to go, then coasted home to an easy three and one-quarter length win. Although he earned a 90 figure, I feel he could have run faster if need be.

Putting those figures in perspective, likely Louisiana Derby betting favorite Mandaloun earned a 97 figure winning the Risen Star. Being as Run Classic is more lightly raced he may have more improving to do, as compared to Mandaloun and others already proven competitive in similar races. Specifically, making his third career start and second in a route, Run Classic has a lot of potential to leap frog over the more logical contenders and post the upset to win. That is exactly what By My Standards did to post the upset win in this race in 2019 at odds of 22/1 when winning the race after breaking his maiden in a route over the track one race earlier. By My Standards was trained by Bret Calhoun, who trains Run Classic, and that is precisely why I'm choosing Run Classic to post the upset win in the Louisiana Derby.

Hot Rod Charlie entered the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November off a maiden win in a route. Then in the Juvenile and making his second consecutive start in a dirt route, Hot Rod Charlie finished second at odds of 94 to 1, earning a career-best 100 in the process. Returning for his 3-year-old campaign at the end of January, Hot Rod Charlie proved his Breeders' Cup effort to be no fluke as he closed from fourth after stumbling at the start, missing the win by inches in a three horse photo. The 97 figure earned can logically by improved upon in his second start off a layoff so Hot Rod Charlie deserves strong consideration as a contender to win this race.

Mandaloun won the first two races of his career, both sprints, with a 97 figure in the best of the pair. Stretched out to two-turns for the first time in the Lecomte Stakes, Mandaloun was really no threat for wire-to-wire winner Midnight Bourbon but did finish just a head behind runner-up Proxy, perhaps because the winner got an uncontested lead and also because the winner had the experience of running two-turn races previously. Improving off the experience, Mandaloun turned the tables on Midnight Bourbon to win the Risen Star clearly by one and one- half lengths, equaling the 97 figure earned one month earlier. Since the distance of the Louisiana Derby is only one-sixteenth of a mile farther than the Risen Star, I don't see any issue with Mandaloun running his best here. Whether that best effort is good enough to beat the improving Run Classic and Hot Rod Charlie is the reason why this race will be a great one to watch and wager on.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Midnight Bourbon (99), O Besos (94), Proxy (97), Rightandjust (90) and Starrininmydreams (88).

Win Contenders:
Run Classic
Hot Rod Charlie
Mandaloun

Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby – Grade 2
Race14 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, March 20 – Post Time 6:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Sixteenths
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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Equibase Analysis: Concert Tour, Caddo River Stand Out In Rebel

The $1 million Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, the local prep at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby, drew a field of eight 3-year-olds trying to earn the winner's share of 50 points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points system, not to mention the minimum $600,000 which goes to the winning owner. Among the eight, seven have two-turn experience and six have won a two-turn race, with four of those stakes winners and another stakes placed.

On the flip side, three of those with positive stakes experience are returning from layoffs ranging from 100 to 165 days and it might be a tough question to ask even those talented colts to run a winning race off those long layoffs. Get Her Number is one of those, having captured the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at the end of September. Another is Keepmeinmind, winner of the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the end of November. Super Stock finished third and second in three graded stakes last year, the most recent when the runner-up in the Street Sense Stakes at the end of October.

Then we move to the horses with the most recent efforts, with all five entering the Rebel Stakes following wins. Among that group, Caddo River and Concert Tour were stakes winners. Caddo River returned from a little over two months off to win the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on January 22, while Concert Tour won the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs at Santa Anita on February 6. Hozier enters the race off a maiden win at Santa Anita and shares the barn of Bob Baffert with Concert Tour. Big Lake and Twilight Blue both won their most recent races in allowance company and are trying to step up to the stakes level with similar efforts.

Having discounted the chances of all three horses with stakes credentials who are trying to win off lengthy layoffs – Get Her Number, Keepmeinmind and Super Stock, and believing the horses coming out of maiden and allowance wins may need a bit of maturing and seasoning to win a race at this level, it appears Concert Tour and Caddo River are standouts in terms of probability to win.

Concert Tour has won both starts of his career, the first a six furlong race on Jan. 15 with a 100 Equibase Speed Figure and the second when winning the San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 6 with an even better 106 figure which is the best any horse in the Rebel field has earned. Showing a lot of maturity when racing in third in the early stages, Concert Tour moved professionally to the lead in the final sixteenth of a mile and won by a half-length. Jockey Joel Rosario was aboard for both wins and rides back in the Rebel and the colt put in a snazzy six furlong workout in 1:11.4 on March 6 to show he's in tip-top form. Concert Tour has a fantastic pedigree for going long as a son of Street Sense out of a Tapit mare. Sons of Street Sense such as Maxfield, McKinzie and Avery Island have had a big impact the past few seasons in 3-year-old races and of course there's the Baffert factor as well. A simple STATS Race Lens query exemplifies what racing fans know internally about Baffert's success in three year old races, showing over the last five years Baffert trainees have won 33 of 95 dirt route graded stakes for three year olds. Additionally, there's no concern about a Baffert charge stretching out to a route for the first time in a graded stakes, as he won the 2020 Rebel with Nadal off a sprint, as well as the 2021 Sham Stakes with current early Kentucky Derby favorite Life is Good.

Caddo River was very impressive winning the Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 22 at Oaklawn by 10 lengths. Cruising to the lead from the start, Caddo River kept a steady pace to draw away by three lengths with a quarter mile to go, by six lengths with an eighth of a mile to go before coasting home. Earning a 101 figure, the same earned when winning his previous start in November, Caddo River could easily take a huge step forward in his second start off the layoff and run well enough to win the Rebel Stakes, particularly if allowed to control the pace from a rail he draws. Jockey Florent Geroux has been aboard for the colt's last two wins and rides back and the fact that Caddo River won over the track could give him a familiarity edge over Concert Tour. Although he's been training for many years, trainer Brad Cox truly burst into the big leagues the past few years, and on fewer starters than Baffert in three year old dirt route races his numbers are quite similar in terms of percentage. Cox has a record of 10 for 28 in three year old dirt route graded stakes over the past five years including Essential Quality, winner of the Southwest Stakes at the end of February, and Mandaloun, recent winner of the Risen Star Stakes. If Caddo River wins or even finishes second, that would give Cox three major players as we head into the biggest races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Big Lake (95), Get Her Number (88), Hozier (89), Keepmeinmind (91), Super Stock (93) and Twilight Blue (100).

Win Contenders:
Concert Tour
Caddo River

Rebel Stakes – Grade 2
Race 11 at Oaklawn Park
Saturday, March 13 – Post Time 6:16 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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