Tag: Early Voting

Taking Stock: Gun Runner in Heady Company

Two weeks ago, when I wrote the column “First Crops Yield Derby and Oaks Winners,” I'd expected to write about Taiba (Gun Runner) and Secret Oath (Arrogate), the two I'd liked the most in the Gl Kentucky Derby and Gl Kentucky Oaks, respectively. I'd spoken mainly about those two on Steve Byk's popular SiriusXM program “At the Races,” and my feeling was that Gun Runner in particular was on a trajectory to get a first-crop Classic winner. His start at stud had been exceptional with his first juveniles, and the momentum was carrying forward with his 3-year-olds, headed by Taiba, who'd won the Gl Santa Anita Derby in only his second start; Cyberknife, who'd accounted for the Gl Arkansas Derby from a field that included Secret Oath; and Early Voting, who'd lost the Gll Wood Memorial in a photo to Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) in only his third start. Instead, my column was about Rich Strike (Keen Ice) and Secret Oath.

Last week, Byk asked for my opinion on the Gl Preakness. My choices, I told him, were Early Voting (Gun Runner) and Secret Oath. There were plenty of reasons and handicapping angles for which to like Early Voting, entering the Preakness on a similar path traveled by his connections' 2017 Preakness winner Cloud Computing, a first-crop Classic winner for Maclean's Music. But my primary reason for picking Early Voting, like Taiba in the Derby, was all about Gun Runner. “I just think, Steve, that Gun Runner is such a good stallion, and he's going to get a first-crop Classic winner,” I'd said.

Early Voting defeated race favorite Epicenter (Not This Time) to land the Classic, his first top-level win.

After the race, Steve Asmussen, who trains Preakness and Derby runner-up Epicenter and conditioned Gun Runner, told the Pimlico media team: “The silver lining on that is Gun Runner is probably the greatest sire of all time. He's incredible.”

That's hyperbole, of course, but Gun Runner is certainly on a special trajectory, and who knows? Before Early Voting, Gun Runner had already sired four Grade l winners from his first crop, and now he has an astonishing five, with plenty of racing yet to come for his 3-year-olds, who could become even better at four and five, as he did. Gun Runner didn't win his first top-level race until late in his 3-year-old season, and at four he was outstanding, winning four Grade l events. At five, he won the Gl Pegasus World Cup in January before entering stud at Three Chimneys, which campaigned the horse with Winchell Thoroughbreds, the owner of Epicenter.

Could Gun Runner end up with six or seven Grade l winners from his first crop? It's a jaw-dropping possibility, but having five already is heady enough. With the massive books stallions cover these days, it's unfair to compare horses from different eras purely by first-crop Grade I winners, but suffice to say Gun Runner has sired more of them than any other active sire in North America, which includes such outstanding stallions as Into Mischief, Tapit, War Front, Curlin, Uncle Mo, Quality Road, Speightstown, Medaglia d'Oro, and his own sire, Candy Ride (Arg), who got four in his first crop.

In a different era, Gainesway's Blushing Groom (Fr), a foal of 1974, sired five first-crop Grade/Group 1 winners, and in Europe, the iconic Sadler's Wells, a foal of 1981, got six. More recently, Sadler's Wells's son Montjeu (Ire), a foal of 1996, got five Northern Hemisphere-bred Group 1 winners from his first crop, and Frankel (GB), who was born in 2008 and is by Sadler's Wells's greatest sire son, Galileo (Ire), got six. This isn't necessarily a comprehensive list, but it paints the picture of the company that Gun Runner is rubbing shoulders with as his stud career unfolds, and it's safe to say he's sired his first five Grade l winners quicker than any of them. All of these named here with five or more also sired a first-crop Classic winner.

Sire Line
Most stallions tend to have their best results in their first crops. Three Chimneys is certainly aware of this, having stood Slew o' Gold, who got four Grade l winners in his first crop and nothing thereafter approaching that level of success. Exceptional stallions, however, will gut it out with their second, third, and fourth crops and rebound as they get better mares again.

Likewise, exceptional sires will sometimes appear from unlikely branches of major stallions. This was the case with California-bred Tiznow, the broodmare sire of Early Voting. Tiznow was sired by the stakes-placed California stallion Cee's Tizzy, a son of the In Reality horse Relaunch.

More recently, Uncle Mo is such an example. His California-bred sire Indian Charlie was by California-based In Excess (Ire), a son of the Caro (Ire) stallion Siberian Express.

Both Caro and In Reality were outstanding sires who had a number of top sons at stud, but the existence of their lines in North America now runs through obscure branches that resuscitated them after the bigger names failed to carry on the lines. The same paradigm is true for Gun Runner, who traces to Fappiano through the sequence Candy Ride/Ride the Rails/Cryptoclearance/Fappiano.

Fappiano is mainly represented in North America through Unbridled's sire sons Empire Maker and Unbridled's Song, both of whom are now dead. Empire Maker's son Pioneerof the Nile, also dead, is the sire of American Pharoah, while Unbridled's Song's son Arrogate, also dead, is the sire of Secret Oath. Candy Ride, who entered stud for only $10,000, improbably brought his branch of Fappiano to the fore to compete with the established lines of Fappiano, and now his son Gun Runner is blowing it up to a level that may surpass the tail-male influences of Empire Maker and Unbridled's Song. And Gun Runner isn't the only one; Candy Ride is also the sire of the excellent Twirling Candy–responsible for last year's Preakness winner Rombauer– plus a bunch of other young stallions with runners on the way.

Here's something else that makes this story even more interesting: Bred by Haras Abolengo, Candy Ride, who isn't a particularly eye-catching or sizable individual, had several veterinary issues and twice failed examinations before selling to Gumercindo Alonzo for the equivalent of $12,000 as a yearling. Nonetheless, he was an exceptional if brittle racehorse, undefeated in three starts in Argentina and three starts in North America.

At stud, Candy Ride had a great affinity for mares with Storm Cat in their pedigrees, and Gun Runner, who's from a Giant's Causeway mare, is one such example.

This same affinity for Storm Cat is evident in Gun Runner's early success as well. Early Voting's second dam is by Storm Cat, who's also in the pedigrees of two other Grade l winners by the stallion. In fact, five of Gun Runner's Graded winners have Storm Cat in their pedigrees, and altogether six of his 11 black-type winners do.

After Gun Runner was first retired to Three Chimneys, I had the opportunity to inspect him and was struck by how balanced he was, so much so that he didn't appear to the eye to be as tall as the 16.2 hands he is. At the time, he was five and had furnished significantly from his days as a somewhat immature-looking 3-year-old, but nonetheless he carried some refinement to him that seemed as if it would complement more muscular physiques, like the ones provided by Storm Cat. It made sense then, and judging by results, it makes sense now.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Don’t Forget the Other Name on the Ticket

Most of us have voted early, and voted often, when it comes to the biggest impact recently made by a new stallion–and now, it seems, we've celebrated his official inauguration. Because a Classic winner for Gun Runner rounds out the narrative that so excited everybody last year, when his first juveniles showed such startling speed and precocity relative to his own Horse of the Year campaign, around two turns as a 4-year-old.

Sure, Gun Runner himself managed to win his first two (of three) juvenile starts, and then added the two big Fair Grounds trials before making the GI Kentucky Derby podium. But it was only in maturity that he reached his full potential, streaking through five Grade Is by an aggregate 27 1/2 lengths. Given the many Classic influences in his pedigree, then, he was surely only getting started when a GI Hopeful winner and champion 2-year-old filly contributed to a first-crop earnings record of $4.3 million. Sure enough, this spring Gun Runner had already followed through with winners of the GI Arkansas Derby and GI Santa Anita Derby, and now Early Voting has sealed the deal in the GI Preakness S.

We know that a ruthless price is exacted from young stallions if failing to capitalize on the one opportunity they tend to be given by commercial breeders, and even Gun Runner–despite having absolutely lived up to his billing at the yearling sales–was trimmed by Three Chimneys last year from $70,000 to $50,000, just to keep him in the game pending the launch of his first runners. But while many peers have meanwhile begun the usual, inexorable slide, he had already been hoisted to $125,000 for this spring and has been quick to reassure investors that his advent among the elite will be as lasting as it has been unmistakable.

By this stage, then, nobody still needs to be told that Gun Runner is a landslide success. But let's not forget the second name on the ticket. Because the other half of his genetic equation is certainly going to assist Early Voting, as and when he gets the chance to open up the next frontier for Gun Runner–as a sire of sires.

Pitch it short or drive it long, Early Voting's maternal family will sit very prettily in a stallion brochure. His dam is a Tiznow half-sister to an outstanding stallion in Speightstown; and full sister to a highly accomplished runner in the tragic Irap. And the quality of this dynasty–which eventually unspools, as seventh dam, to the Virginia matriarch Hildene–can be judged by reminding ourselves that Speightstown, though a first foal, brought $2 million as a yearling.

The line admittedly tapers pretty thinly by the time it reaches Hildene, foaled in 1938 and a foundation mare at Christopher T. Chenery's Meadow Farm, eventually famed for the nativity of Secretariat. Though Hildene (like her first two dams) was mediocre on the track, and apparently a bleeder, her five stakes winners included Hill Prince, Horse of the Year in 1950; and First Landing, champion juvenile of 1958.

First Flush was one of Hildene's less distinguished foals, unplaced in a light career. But if that seemed unsurprising in view of her paternity–her sire had won steeplechases in France–the fact is that she went on to prove a fertile source of stakes performers and/or producers. These included Copper Canyon, whose sire Bryan G. had been selected after coming up with triple champion Cicada from one of First Flush's half-sisters. Three of Copper Canyon's daughters would go on to produce Grade I winners, including an unraced daughter of the great Buckpasser named Insilca who delivered GI Turf Classic Inv. scorer Turk Passer (Turkoman).

Insilca's daughter by Bold Ruler's son Chieftain, Silken Doll, ran up a sequence of four as a sophomore (crowned with a stakes win) before in turn becoming quite a useful producer. Her foals included a Group 1-placed juvenile (admittedly regressive after) in Britain by Silver Hawk; the dam of GII Indiana Derby winner/GI King's Bishop runner-up Star Dabbler (Saint Ballado); and a Storm Cat filly named Silken Cat, whose three processional wins round Woodbine qualified her as Canada's leading 2-year-old filly of 1995.

Silken Cat, who had been bred in Quebec by Ferme Du Bois-Vert and sold to Sam-Son Farm as a yearling, was at this point acquired by Aaron and Marie Jones but had to be retired after a single sophomore start (and first defeat) in California. Any disappointment was soon assuaged, however, when her first yearling colt, by Gone West, brought that $2 million from Eugene Melnyk. Though Speightstown took his time to repay his investment, at one stage surfacing only twice in 30 months, he put it all together as champion sprinter at six, bowing out in style at the Lone Star Breeders' Cup.

On the face of it, Silken Cat then appeared to produce a series of costly duds. There was a winner in Malaysia, but that was it. Three never even made the starting gate: a $1.5 million sister to Speightstown; a $1.75 million Tiznow filly; and a colt by Unbridled's Song, plainly unraceable, discarded for just $8,000 as a 2-year-old at the Keeneland November Sale. By the time the very difficult delivery of a Tiznow colt caused her retirement, 16 years after she had produced Speightstown, Silken Cat had burned enough fingers for her final son to fail to reach his yearling reserve at $140,000.

Pinhooker Bobby Dodd did a deal, however, and managed to advance the colt's value to $300,000 at OBS the following March. The very same day, Silken Cat lay down peacefully in her paddock at Taylor Made and died. Her work, albeit protracted and fitful, was done: 11 yearlings sold for over $8.5 million.

Her final bequest, this Tiznow colt, was always campaigned like a talented horse by Doug O'Neill and a shock success in the GII Blue Grass S. showed why. Irap later added the GIII Ohio Derby and GIII Indiana Derby before making the podium in the GI Travers, only to succumb to laminitis that fall.

In the meantime, two of those ostensible “dud” siblings have enhanced their dam's legacy in astounding fashion. The Unbridled's Song colt written off for $8,000 was bought by John McKee, who offered him to West Virginia breeders at Beau Ridge Farm as a half-brother to Speightstown. Fiber Sonde has since accumulated 21 black-type winners, two at graded stakes level, including the 15-for-27 millionaire and Charles Town stalwart Runnin'toluvya.

And then there was that very expensive Tiznow filly, named Amour d'Ete, unraced after her acquisition as a yearling by incoming Three Chimneys chairman Goncalo Borges Torrealba at the 2013 September Sale. Evidently a stunning physical, she apparently suffered a fungal infection in training that nearly cost her an eye. The Three Chimneys team did try to cash her in, with a Super Saver cover at the November Sale of 2016, but in the end held their nerve and retained her at $725,000.

That has turned out to be an inspired gamble. True, her daughter by Super Saver was sold as a yearling for barely a tenth of that sum, at $75,000, and only won a maiden claimer. But how Ten Strike Racing must be congratulating themselves after claiming this filly for $50,000 at Churchill in November! Because she now finds herself half-sister to a Preakness winner.

Things had started to turn round for Amour d'Ete immediately after she was retained at the November Sale, her full brother Irap coming good the following spring. And fortunately her 2019 foal by the farm's rookie stallion Gun Runner (apparently still immature when making $200,000 at the Keeneland September Sale, to join Klaravich Stables) was striking enough for her to be bred straight back.

As a result, Three Chimneys find themselves not only with both the sire and dam of a Preakness winner, but also a full sister–along with several other new shoots on this long-flourishing family tree, Amour d'Ete having otherwise produced only fillies. Her first foal, by Distorted Humor, required patience but did break her maiden stylishly at four; after Early Voting's sister, now two, came a yearling by another recent breakout sire in Constitution; while just last month the farm welcomed a filly by Volatile.

So let's now just take a step back and consider the mating that produced a Preakness winner. Apart from sheer quality of blood–both Gun Runner and Amour d'Ete, after all, are real aristocrats–the first thing that stands out is a nice echo behind Silken Cat, blue hen as she has unmistakably become, and Gun Runner's great damsire Giant's Causeway. Because Early Voting's second dam, as noted, is by Storm Cat out of Chieftain's daughter Silken Doll; and Giant's Causeway, also by Storm Cat, was out of a granddaughter of a Chieftain mare.

While his contribution to the package is plainly limited, Chieftain is a wholesome kind of brand to find top and bottom. Though he never established his own branch of the Bold Ruler line, he was a conduit not just for speed and durability but for some regal genes: he was a half-brother to Tom Rolfe, while their dam was out of How, the Kentucky Oaks winner whose sister delivered Sham.

How sire Princequillo tends to recur in almost any worthwhile American pedigree and this one is no exception. For instance, he also helps to lace together the very familiar pedigree of Quiet Dance, whose mating with Giant's Causeway produced the dam of Gun Runner. (Quiet Dance, of course, also gave us Saint Liam by Saint Ballado.) Quiet Dance's second dam was by a son of Princequillo, while the famously close inbreeding to Dr. Fager in her sire Quiet American was in each case via daughters of Princequillo's prolific producer Cequillo.

Turning to those opposing strands of Storm Cat, his damsire Secretariat–besides being another son of Bold Ruler–introduces more Princequillo through his dam Somethingroyal. For the little it may be worth, moreover, Tiznow's damsire Seattle Song combines a Bold Ruler line with a mare by a son of Princequillo.

Doubtless these are fairly random tints to pick from a complex palette. In broader brushstrokes, however, we can say that Early Voting's prestigious family has had the benefit of commensurate seeding throughout–first four dams by Tiznow, Storm Cat, Chieftain and Buckpasser–and that there won't be a chink in his genetic armor when he goes to stud. His four grandparents are a developing sire of sires in Candy Ride (Arg); a half-sister to Saint Liam; a broodmare sire now up to 29 graded stakes winners, following We the People (Constitution) only the previous weekend; and the dam of Speightstown, Irap and Fiber Sonde.

To me, that's what makes a copper-bottomed pedigree: when all genetic contributors have established their worth through horses other than those who actually put them on the page in front of you.

Gun Runner's first crop has already drawn alongside that of Speightstown, which eventually mustered five Grade I winners. These largely proved typical of Speightstown's stock overall, however, in tending to need time to mature. For his half-sister by another fairly slow burner in Tiznow to have produced a Classic winner, then, certainly attests to the striking dynamism we're seeing in Gun Runner.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The previous Preakness winner in Early Voting's maternal line, Hill Prince, was also from his sire's debut crop. As we've just seen in this pedigree, that was the start of a road that led to one of the commanding summits of the modern breed. If Gun Runner can go on and become even half as influential as Princequillo, then he will indeed be looking at greatness.

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TDN Snippets: Week of May 16 – 22

It was certainly a busy week of action on both sides of the Atlantic. Here's a sample of what went on, and what should be on your radar.

Headline Maker…
With Early Voting's Classic win at Pimlico Saturday, the colt became Gun Runner's fifth Grade I winner. It's a remarkable stat for any stallion, especially one so early in his stud career. It looks likely the Three Chimneys stallion will vie with the mighty Into Mischief for the honor of being America's most expensive sire over the next few years.

Ferguson/Natalma Making Waves…
Natalma has been appearing on buyers' sheets here and in the U.K. since 2021 with the investment portfolio, spearheaded by John Ferguson, having purchased 21 fillies and mares at public auction for an aggregate of $4.6 million during that time. Three of these purchases were at Tattersalls July, three at Fasig-Tipton November, 11 at Keeneland November and four at Tattersalls December. Natalma are also active in the private market. Ferguson is currently at Magic Millions selling three mares, via the Arrowfield consignment, all in foal to Frankel. Watch this space…

Wellman The Explorer…
Following the theme of international expansion, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners' Aron Wellman recently plucked a filly out of Europe, with the guidance of Mike Levy/Jamie Lloyd, and she's now Royal Ascot-bound. Manhattan Jungle (Bungle Inthejungle), trained by the talented Amy Murphy, won a listed race at Vichy (video), France Friday and looks to have a bright future.

Wellman summed it up nicely, “The world is getting so small, particularly in our industry, and it's wonderful to have an Irish-bred filly, who is three-for-three in France and now destined for Royal Ascot in England and will be supported by a strong contingent of American owners. Very cool stuff!”

First (U.S.) Starter, First Winner…
Social media was buzzing Sunday after Tahoma became Justify's first winner, from his first American runner. Craig Bernick's Aspen Grove had run a promising fifth at the Curragh earlier in the day, in what appeared to be a strong maiden.

Tahoma, a $160,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase by Dennis O'Neill, is a half-brother to graded stakes winner Legends of War (Scat Daddy). Legends of War, who won the 2019 GIII Franklin-Simpson S. at Kentucky Downs for brother Doug, was actually named a TDN Rising Star May 23, 2018 at Yarmouth under the tutelage of John Gosden. Legends of War is now back in England standing at March Hare Stud for £4,000.

Appleby Can Do No Wrong…
Native Trail (Oasis Dream)'s win in the G1 Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas gave Charlie Appleby/Godolphin its third 2000 Guineas win of the year. What's even more staggering is that they did it with three different horses; Coroebus (English 1000 Guineas), Modern Games (Poule d'Essai des Poulains aka French 2000 Guineas) and now Native Trail. Aidan O'Brien won the three races back in 2002 but with two different horses; Rock Of Gibraltar (England & Ireland) and Landseer (France).

The team at Dalham Hall/Kildangan Stud in Europe better start building new stallion boxes to accommodate the array of stallion prospects Appleby is churning out.

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The Week in Review: Is the ‘Fresh Horse’ Angle Getting Stale?

For the second year in a row, the GI Preakness S. was won by a fresh horse who didn't run in the GI Kentucky Derby. Since both of Saturday's top two Preakness finishers–Early Voting (Gun Runner) and Epicenter (Not This Time)–were publicly declared out of the GI Belmont S. even before the last of the crab cakes cooled at Pimlico, it will be up to another relatively rested horse to step up and snag the third jewel of the Triple Crown.

That's not an unfamiliar scenario, and recent history tells us the most likely Belmont win threat could be among the Derby also-rans.
Since 2000, New York's “test of a champion” has been won by 10 horses who ran in Louisville then opted out of Baltimore. During that same time frame, seven horses won the Belmont after not having run in either the Derby or Preakness. We also had two Triple Crown winners (Justify in 2018 and American Pharoah in 2015), and two other horses–Afleet Alex in 2005 and Point Given in 2001–who lost the Derby, won the Preakness, then won the Belmont (the pandemic-altered 2020 Triple Crown scheduling was an anomaly that isn't counted here).

The connections of Rich Strike (Keen Ice) voluntarily held out their Derby winner from the Preakness, citing the desire to have a fresh colt for the Belmont. Yet the 80-1 hero from the first Saturday in May is unlikely to be favored on June 11.

Rich Strike's underdog appeal will undoubtedly attract supporters and a sizable rooting interest. But going from being a blue-collar, no-pressure afterthought who lucked into the Derby off the also-eligible list to being the focal point of microscopic attention in the media capital of the world will be a daunting ask for this overachieving (and sometimes ornery) former $30,000 maiden claimer.

Trainer Todd Pletcher might not have pioneered the now-prevalent “skip the Preakness” methodology. But he's certainly done his part to lend credibility to the “less is more” approach when targeting the Triple Crown's concluding leg.

The Pletcher-conditioned Tapwrit was sixth in the 2018 Derby, passed on the Preakness, then won the Belmont. Similar story for Palace Malice in 2013, except that he was 12th at Churchill. Pletcher's other Belmont winner, the filly Rags to Riches, had the same five-week spacing in 2007, except her circumstances were different, having won the GI Kentucky Oaks prior to taking on males in New York.

Using those templates as a guide, Pletcher is aiming two contenders (at least) toward the Belmont: Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), who got buried with the dreaded rail draw in the Derby, waited too long to uncork a far-turn bid, then displayed sneaky-good acceleration inside the eighth pole to finish fifth, and Nest (Curlin), the filly who won three straight stakes this past winter and spring prior to being the beaten fave (second) in a very competitive renewal of the May 6 Kentucky Oaks.

Barber Road (Race Day), a gritty stayer who was sixth in the Derby, is the only other confirmed Belmont probable among those who ran in the first leg of the Triple Crown. Creative Minster (Creative Cause), a minor-impact third in the Preakness, is also being pointed to the Belmont.

Although that list of Belmont contenders looks light at the moment, it's sure to be shored up over the next 2 1/2 weeks.
Chief among names percolating around the periphery are We the People (Constitution), winner of the May 14 GIII Peter Pan S. with a 103 Beyer Speed Figure.

Two other colts who had formerly been under Derby consideration but instead won confidence-boosters on Saturday could also be in the mix: Ethereal Road (Quality Road), who scored in the Sir Barton S. on the Preakness undercard, plus Howling Time (Not This Time), who captured an allowance/optional claimer at Churchill.

Parsing the outcome of the Preakness need not be a drawn-out affair. Armagnac (Quality Road), an 18-1 outsider, went to the lead. The jockeys aboard two other on-paper speed threats–Fenwick (Curlin) and Simplification (Not This Time)–chose not to force the issue through moderate early fractions. Jose Ortiz, knowing what he had underneath him, willingly conceded the lead with Early Voting and instead sat second, applying quiet but palpable pressure through consecutive quarters in :24.32, :23.12, :24.06 and :24.05 for the first mile of the race.

Meanwhile, at the back of the pack, it was evident by the midway point that the two favorites, Epicenter and the filly Secret Oath (Arrogate), had left themselves too much work to do. While both had endured jostling early in the race, it shouldn't have adversely affected either considering both were in the process of being rated off the pace when the bumping occurred.

Joel Rosario was first to move with a sense of urgency, sending Epicenter up the rail to tag onto the back of the first flight about a half-mile from home. Luis Saez soon mimicked the favorite's “let's hustle” move, expect he stayed widest with Secret Oath. The end result for both was more or less the same: Epicenter had to ride out the run through the far bend while pocketed with nowhere to go, then he had no true spark once he cut the corner and had a clear shot. Secret Oath once again launched into the same loop-the-group maneuver that had come up short in the GI Arkansas Derby, and she similarly petered out in the stretch.

With the favorites foundering behind him, Early Voting simply ratcheted up the torque on Armagnac, going head-and-head for the lead between the seven-sixteenths and quarter poles before cracking that rival for good. He responded to urging like a colt who knows his job, drifted only slightly under left-handed encouragement, then shifted back inward to finish up 1 1/4 comfortable lengths clear of a wheels-spinning Epicenter through a final three-sixteenths in :18.99 and a 1:54.54 clocking for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness (105 Beyer).

The only real surprise was that Early Voting had drifted up to 5.7-1 in the betting. Otherwise, the race unfolded in drama-free fashion. If you didn't know it was the Preakness, it could have been any other race at any level on any given day of the week–an overmatched speed horse gets reeled in by a stalker who gets first run, and no one else is firing through the lane.

In sum, Early Voting's measured, methodical victory was a microcosm of how the 4-for-4 colt got to the Preakness in the first place. His connections–trainer Chad Brown and owner Klaravich Stables–had taken the calculated, patient path in prep races and bypassing the Derby, and it paid off at Pimlico, just as it did five years ago when the same owner/trainer combo won the Preakness with Cloud Computing.

Racing isn't the only sport in which the metrics-driven “waiting game” has cycled into vogue. We see it in major-league baseball, where pitchers are removed from starts solely based on pitch counts, even if a no-hitter or World Series game is on the line. High-value college football recruits now routinely skip important, season-ending bowl games so as not to sully their draft status. And pro basketball teams routinely sit their stars during the regular season with the hope of having fresh bodies for the playoffs, where wins count most.

It's tough to dismiss the current over-reliance on analytics when these formulaic approaches keep producing results. And in racing, you certainly can't argue when owners and trainers opt out of potentially arduous spots citing a desire to “do what's best for the horse.”

But there is a difficult-to-define aesthetic cost to mapping out Triple Crown campaigns so conservatively and meticulously. Having already arrived at the point where getting into the Derby has devolved into a chase for qualifying points, the final two legs of the series are at risk of becoming an exercise of which connections have played the “fresh face” percentages most effectively.

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