Dubai Mile (Ire) | Horse Racing Free Tips

Epsom: Can Auguste Rodin Bounce Back In The Derby?

For once in these days of volatile climate, the sun is shining on the Surrey Downs and all the righteous colts assembled for the latest G1 Betfred Derby. Lester Piggott, who is commemorated by one of the card's handicaps carrying his name, was always refererred to patronisingly as the “housewife's choice” in the Blue Riband thanks largely to his association with Ballydoyle. Rosegreen's sacred establishment continues to support this mile-and-a-half Classic like a pillar of iron and 2023's chosen one is Auguste Rodin (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}), whose attempt at Nijinsky's Triple Crown came to an abrupt halt in the 2000 Guineas. Of all the Longfellow's Derby winners, none had to conjure a magic-trick turnaround of this nature so Saturday's race carries that bit of extra intrigue.

What Auguste Rodin lacks in last-time-out form, he makes up for with a mix of reputation and juvenile achievement representing the trainer who has continually bent the accepted perceived knowledge of what is possible in this sport. After all, this is the stable that engineered a Slip Anchor-style Derby win out of Serpentine (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), a colt who had begun his career with a 16-length 10th of 11 in a Galway maiden. Auguste Rodin, the “special” one as far as all closest to him are concerned, has to go and do it himself now with O'Brien summing it up this week. “The Derby is the race where all the horses come together and then you find out, that's the way it is every year,” he said.

Passing It Down; Is Frankel The New Derby Sire Sensation?

In one of the last Classic face-offs between Galileo and Frankel, the latter looks to have a distinct edge in his bid to cement his position as the next go-to sire in this great race. Galileo's unbeaten son Artistic Star (Ire) hails not from Ballydoyle but from the Ralph Beckett stable and is a big outsider with experience in short supply, while Juddmonte's great supplies Frankie's grand finale Arrest (Ire) and more intriguingly also a sleight of hand two years on from his first winner Adayar (Ire). Unexpectedly, that emphatic Derby hero's full-brother Military Order (Ire) comes here with perhaps stronger credentials having won the Listed Lingfield Derby Trial his 5-year-old sibling surrendered en route. When Arthur Budgett's Oaks runner-up Windmill Girl produced two Derby winners in Blakeney and Morston there was a thought that it might not happen again, such is the implausibility of such an outcome, but we are potentially here again.

The 1969 and 1973 winners were half-brothers, so Anna Salai (Dubawi {Ire}) will be providing the race and her breeding operation with something unique if it again plays out right for the boys in blue on Saturday. Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby said today he is happy with the draw allocated to Military Order as he bids to saddle his third Betfred Derby winner. “He is always going to be going there with the tag as being a Derby winner's full-brother, so everyone is going to ask the questions of 'is he as good?' and 'where does he stand compared to him?' but he looks as though he is physically potentially more there and mentally more there than Adayar at this stage of his career,” Charlie Appleby said. “Regardless of that, Adayar went and won a Derby and this lad has got to go and do it now.”

Prepare For The Ride

Richard Kingscote has the chance to emulate “King Kieren” Fallon, the last jockey to win back-to-back Derbys in 2003 and 2004, on Passenger (Ulysses {Ire}) who carries Workforce-like vibes into this for the Niarchos Family so far denied a Derby triumph. Sir Michael Stoute's assistant James Savage was tellingly not averse to comparing the homebred with last year's winner. “Desert Crown and Passenger are different in many ways, but one thing they are similar in is that they are both clever horses that learnt very quickly,” he said. Like the 1993 hero Commander in Chief, he only appeared for the first time at Newmarket's Craven meeting, where King Power's The Foxes (Ire) (Churchill {Ire}) was running second in the signature race before their subsequent coming together in York's Dante.

An Instant Impression?

Surprisingly, given the intensely competitive nature of the Derby, both Geoff Wragg in 1983 and Roger Charlton in 1990 managed to win it in their first season training with Teenoso and Quest For Fame, respectively. Charlie Johnston is attempting the feat this time with a duo including the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud hero Dubai Mile (Ire) (Roaring Lion), who has the edge over the Chester Vase one-two Arrest and Adelaide River (Ire) (Australia {GB}) and very much over Auguste Rodin having finished 17 lengths ahead of that peer in the Guineas.

Sporting the colours of “Mr Derby” Ahmad Al Shaikh, whose outsiders Khalifa Sat (Ire) (Free Eagle {Ire}) and Hoo Ya Mal (GB) (Territories {Ire}) were second in 2020 and 2022, Dubai Mile's Derby success could well have been prophesied by his owner after greeting Hoo Ya Mal. “Next year!” he had said, so no pressure there then Charlie. “He looks great and it is all systems go,” the son of Middleham legend Mark, who fared no better than second in all his tries in the Derby. “The track as we know is a variable that will be an unknown until he has tackled it, but the trip is very much viewed as a positive.”

Click here to view the TDN's Derby Special Edition.

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Guineas Storm Brewing In Newmarket

Saturday's G1 QIPCO 2000 Guineas asks the usual set of questions, with the Classic generation due to be examined for the first time with their raw material and any flaws about to be exposed on Newmarket's Rowley Mile which was the scene of thundery conditions on Friday afternoon. Aside from the ever-present quandary of pace positioning and ground conditions, with the latter scenario complicated by the sight of looming dense clouds on Guineas eve, there is the annual unknown of just how dominant last year's leading 2-year-olds still are. Will Auguste Rodin (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}), Little Big Bear (Ire) (No Nay Never) and Chaldean (GB) (Frankel {GB}) re-establish their superiority or will it have relinquished during the winter months? How will 2022's speed merchants fare? Little Big Bear is in that bracket, as are fellow TDN Rising Stars Sakheer (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}) and Noble Style (GB) (Kingman {GB}), all going beyond the sacred sprinting realm of the sixth furlong. We will find out only on the day and while this is a track that divides opinion as to how stiff it is, it somehow always seems to put the fast ones into the red.

Been There…

What is different to most 2000 Guineas of recent times, and this is probably testament to how strong a season 2022 was for the juveniles, is this is very much one for the already-proven performers with barely an unexposed type to be seen. Only four of the line-up have not contested at least two group races and, of those, the aforementioned Sakheer and Noble Style were denied a second pattern-race outing only by training setbacks. When it comes to establishing fitting credentials for this Classic, Juddmonte's Chaldean who has the combined Frankel and Frankie factor is out on his own.

Building a head of steam throughout the perfectly-aligned G1 Dewhurst S. stepping stones of the G3 Acomb S. and G2 Champagne S. over York and Doncaster's level courses, he duly conquered the undulations of this track on Future Champions Day to bring up a treble that would have been beyond a colt with less inherent quality. Yes, he would be an extremely rare Guineas winner with a “U” in his form, having lost Dettori at the start of the G3 Greenham S., but that unfortunate incident was a mere aberration and will serve only as a curious footnote if he masters his peers once again here.

If successful, one of the operation's rare purchases will be providing Andrew Balding with a second renewal in four years with only Aidan O'Brien, Sir Michael Stoute, Saeed bin Suroor and Andre Fabre having achieved that in recent times. The new face of Kingsclere is on his way to matching the kudos enjoyed by his father but of course the emphasis is on Frankie during the Italian's long goodbye tour.

Dettori, whose own father Gianfranco came and conquered here on Bolkonski (Ire) to start a new racing dynasty back in 1975, has the least-complicated tactical conundrum of all as he outlined when offering his insights as an ambassador for World Pool. “The way I see it, the fancied ones are drawn 11-13, so it's not ideal being away from them, but Chaldean is a horse who can go and run his own race,” he said. “He's got plenty of speed, so hopefully he can get away well and be right up there from the off, just like he was in the Dewhurst and the Champagne S. His form is very solid and you know exactly what you're getting with Chaldean–he's bombproof–whereas the others have a bit to prove. It's just a case of whether the others can step up to match or better what he's shown already.”

Bad News Bear?

Supporters of Auguste Rodin, and there are many judged by the way the betting market has moved in recent weeks, will be well-served to cast their minds back to 2002 which was the last time Aidan O'Brien ran two elite performers against each other here. Rock Of Gibraltar's defeat of Hawk Wing will live long in the memory largely due to the quality of the first two, but also because of the tactical nature of the edition with the not-unfamiliar field split playing out so dramatically on that occasion. There should be no repeat of that at least, with Little Big Bear drawn alongside his much-vaunted stablemate and fellow TDN Rising Star, but there is no guarantee that Ryan Moore's pick will be able to peg back what was one of the best 2-year-olds to have emerged since Frankel.

Despite the nature of Little Big Bear's G3 Anglesey S. and G1 Phoenix S. performances, which suggested strongly that a mile would be well within his compass, there was talk of Nunthorpes until his injury cut short his campaign much as it did the yard's comparable past juvenile overlord Fasliyev. Without the proof that runs in the Vincent O'Brien National S. or Dewhurst would have provided, it is probably not far of the mark to state that even those closest to him are not sold on what type of runner he will turn out to be.

As a benchmark of brilliance, of both the permanent and precocious variety, Little Big Bear's scintillating seven-length defeat of the G2 July S. winner Persian Force (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}) is Guineas-winning form in practically every year, even allowing for stamina concerns. Should he use his physicality to pull away Zafonic-style in what the old school used to call “the last 2-year-old race”, nobody can be truly surprised.

Ryan Moore knows both the Rosegreen undergraduates, who he states are “the two best horses in here”, better than anybody and the man with the hardest call offered the big reveal in his Betfair blog. “Little Big Bear clearly has a lot of pace, but I personally think he will stay a mile and that makes him a very dangerous rival to all,” he said. “Auguste Rodin is an exciting prospect for the season, but hopefully for the here and now, too. But would it surprise me if Little Big Bear beat him? Not really.”

One Eye On The Commonwealth…

A glance at the 2000 Guineas records of winners of the six-furlong G2 Richmond S. and G2 Mill Reef S. offers little statistical hope for Royal Scotsman (Ire) (Gleneagles {Ire}) and Sakheer and, while the former did go close in the Dewhurst, there have to be doubts as to how they will cope with a strong-run mile on easy ground. While this renewal looks set to boast an above-average Guineas winner, it is also on the cards that it could contain a Commonwealth Cup winner once the dust has settled and the various teams regroup for Royal Ascot and Epsom.

Sakheer's connections were already in the dark about the mile and, ominously, Friday's lightning storm led to a flag start to the last race. After the double-whammy of rain on already-watered ground, they are understandably anxious. “Ideally we wouldn't want too much more rain,” KHK Racing's racing manager Chris Wall said. “I was a little exasperated to see that Michael Prosser had started to water the track, which seems rather an unnecessary thing to do, given that we have had the wettest spring for 40 years but there we go. The horse couldn't be in better condition and we're looking forward to the day. He's a very talented horse, but we're not sure yet what his best trip might be.”

Tahiyra Faces Big 1000 Guineas Field

Dermot Weld will be one trainer not unhappy to see Friday's rain after he confirmed The Aga Khan's undefeated G1 Moyglare Stud S. heroine and TDN Rising Star Tahiyra (Ire) (Siyouni {Fr}) among a cast of 20 for Sunday's G1 QIPCO 1000 Guineas. Handed stall 15 for the feature, the half-sister to connections' luminary Tarnawa (Ire) (Shamardal) will be reopposed by the Moyglare runner-up and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine Meditate (Ire) (No Nay Never) as Ballydoyle's lone representative after another of the stable's leading lights Never Ending Story (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) is kept back for either ParisLongchamp or The Curragh.

Chris Hayes has the task of trying to provide Weld with a first 1000 Guineas and said, “She looked terribly exciting [in the Moyglare], she seems to have wintered well so I'm looking forward to it. I'm very excited, to get on any favourite in a Classic is rare, for me it's the stuff of dreams so we'll see what we can do. Obviously, like the boss has said, there's always the question if they train on from two to three, but on her home work she appears to have and she's just a pleasure. She'll never get you excited going up the gallops but she turns it on at the races.”

Alongside Never Ending Story, Juddmonte's G3 Dick Poole Fillies' S. winner Juliet Sierra (GB) (Bated Breath {GB}) was the only other not to be confirmed and Godolphin's decision to run a trio of contenders is one of many indicators that very few are running scared of the Weld filly. This is the biggest assembly since Finsceal Beo (Ire) (Mr. Greeley) mastered 20 rivals in 2007, two years before Saeed bin Suroor enjoyed his last English Classic victory. The trainer has live prospects of ending that drought with TDN Rising Star Mawj (Ire) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}), who bids to confirm the form of the Jumeirah Fillies Classic with William Buick's pick of Charlie Appleby's duo, Dream Of Love (Ire) (Shamardal).

Amo Racing's Classic dream lives on through the impressive G3 Nell Gwyn S. winner Mammas Girl (GB) (Havana Grey {GB}), who is nearest the stand's rail in 20 while on the opposite wing is Marc Chan and Andrew Rosen's G1 Cheveley Park S. heroine Lezoo (GB) (Zoustar {Aus}). She gives Ralph Beckett a strong hand along with Julian Richmond-Watson's unbeaten G3 Fred Darling S. scorer Remarquee (GB) (Kingman {GB}) in a fascinating encounter which could yet be shaped by the local storm.

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Heady Action Gets Underway at Newmarket

Heading into a weekend when celebration is the keyword in Britain, Newmarket's three-day QIPCO Guineas Festival begins on Friday with some action designed to build the intensity towards the main events. Fittingly, the fixture's opener is the Listed Newmarket S., the race once used by the Derby-winning icons Shirley Heights (GB) and Slip Anchor (GB) and this year hosting one of The King and Queen Consort's outside squeaks at a blue riband runner in Circle Of Fire (GB) (Almanzor {Fr}). Just a Salisbury novice winner at present, the colt bred by The Queen who derives from Juddmonte royalry has that additional edge of being with Sir Michael Stoute, who proved in 2022 that the art of expertise and longstanding experience still counts for plenty in the kiln of modern-day racing.

What Next For Waipiro?
Another unexposed colt in the Newmarket S. is the Ed Walker-trained Waipiro (Ire) (Australia {GB}), who looked so assured over this 10-furlong trip and track at the Craven meeting. A half-brother to the Hong Kong star Waikuku (Ire) (Harbour Watch {Ire}), the bay promises to spark pre-Derby excitement at the Upper Lambourn set-up much as English King (Fr) (Camelot {GB}) did three years ago. “We want to find out sooner or later if he is a horse who could be lining up at Epsom, so really he needs to be winning this in order to do so,” Walker said. “He's got to take another step forwards, he took a big step forwards from his debut and he's got to take another tomorrow.”

Another Hurricane Season In The Offing?
Even if the Newmarket S. does not host a genuine Derby colt, five races in there is the chance to witness one who has already traversed that particular terrain in Hurricane Lane (Ire) (Frankel {GB}). Clearly, the horse who failed to beat a rival in Newbury's G3 John Porter S. is a shadow of the one who bounded out of Epsom's Blue Riband two years ago and completed a not-inconsequential treble of Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris and St Leger and went close in an Arc. Will cheekpieces focus that racing mind to tune back in with the outstanding physicality? The G2 Jockey Club S., one of Newmarket's most consistently uncompetitive yet undeniably intriguing annual happenings, will tell us.

Charlie Appleby has come to use the two racecourses of the town's Heathland almost as his private domain in recent years and this is another big afternoon, especially with Godolphin's champion 2-year-old of 2021 and G1 Irish 2000 Guineas hero Native Trail (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}) also in action in the G2 bet365 Mile. Switched from the flooded Sandown and much-changed in make-up from the version that was due to take place a week previously, it is one of two races saved from that fixture and now an ideal launchpad for the colt who looked to have the world at his feet as he went to post for the Saturday Classic 12 months ago. With a pair of colts engaged in the Newmarket S. and the course-and-distance conditions winner Majestic Pride (GB) (Shamardal) in the seven-furlong Listed King Charles II S., this is very much another day at the office for Moulton Paddocks but there is certainly no contempt in this familiarity with this verdant landscape perfectly complemented by the army in royal blue livery.

Ballydoyle Big Guns Drawn Together In Guineas Poser
As the confirmations for Saturday's G1 Qipco 2000 Guineas were unveiled on Thursday morning, Aidan O'Brien made the only scratching of the race as he took out Cairo (Ire) (Quality Road) but more importantly affirmed that there would be no ducking out of an encounter between two of the most talented colts to have raced for the stable in recent times. While the destinies of the TDN Rising Stars Auguste Rodin (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) and Little Big Bear (Ire) (No Nay Never) are certain to play out independently of the other after the mile Classic, this is where they will both begin their keenly-anticipated second-season odysseys and by an act of strange fortune they were positioned alongside each other in stalls 12 and 13 respectively.

As expected, Ryan Moore has picked the potentially “special” one who comes back to England having fired his salvo the G1 Futurity Trophy in the autumn, while Wayne Lordan takes his longstanding behind-closed-doors link-up with the brilliant 2-year-old master of 2022 Little Big Bear into the open for the first time. Following The King's momentous Coronation on Saturday, talk of Crowning in this sphere will evolve around the lore of Britain's Triple, not achieved by a colt since Nijinsky in 1970. It was notable how enthusiastic O'Brien was for Auguste Rodin's prospects of this daunting feat in his Great British Racing press conference this week.
“Obviously the Triple Crown is a very hard thing to do, but sometime it would be great to do it,” he said of the colt whose pull is so potent it meant that Ryan Moore was remarkably deserted a champion 2-year-old who would have been hot property in most of the preceding renewals. “It is a difficult type of horse to find, because they have to have a lot of class and they have to have pace enough to run in the Guineas. It is really class that those horses have to have. It's pure class and class gives them stamina and gives them speed. We just thought that, at the moment, he fits into that bracket really well.”

What Effect The Draw?
Quite where Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear sit if the race becomes tactical, as it can on the Rowley Mile, remains to be seen and an unclear weather forecast leading up to Saturday does invite the possibility of watering and the prospect of favoured patches of ground. Twelve months ago, much was made of the meeting's bias toward low numbers with Coroebus (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) upstaging Native Trail as they came from opposite ends of the draw on good ground. There is also the question of where the early pace lies, with Juddmonte's G1 Dewhurst S. hero Chaldean (GB) (Frankel {GB}) who was so comfortable from the front at two being draw in stall three and Ahmad Al Shaikh's G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud winner Dubai Mile (Ire) (Roaring Lion) certain to help force the pace in six.
This is a tough Guineas to predict in terms of tactics, but as far as providing a level playing field it is Clerk of the Course Michael Prosser who has the responsibility. “We have just lightly watered the final eight furlongs, which is the quickest part of the course,” he said in his update at noon on Thursday. “The forecast has changed, basically. At this time yesterday, we were forecast rain first thing in the morning and obviously into the afternoon, so that forecast now advises those showers will be coming later. We have put down 4mm to maintain the position. The final eight furlongs is all but done.”

“Even the Saturday forecast has changed and the volumes don't look as significant, although there is a more organised band of rain coming through mid-morning Saturday through to lunchtime,” he added. “What we're being told this morning is that there might be a dry interlude during racing, which will be really helpful if that is how it unfolded.”

Buick Opts For Silver Over Style…
With memories of 12 months ago fresh in the mind, William Buick has had another difficult choice to make in the 2000 Guineas as he bids to atone for missing out on Native Trail (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}). While the lure of the unbeaten TDN Rising Star and G2 Gimcrack S. winner Noble Style (GB) (Kingman {GB}) is obvious, he has stuck with the G3 Solario S. and G3 Autumn S. winner and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up Silver Knott (GB) (Lope De Vega {Ire}), who will part from the middle stall in seven. “Noble Style is a Gimcrack winner and unbeaten, so he's a high-class horse too, but he's stepping up two furlongs to a mile,” he told QIPCO British Champions Series as he justified his choice of the colt already proven at the trip.

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Chaldean One Of A Score Of Colts In Guineas At Latest Entry Stage

Despite losing Frankie Dettori once the gates flew in the G3 Greenham S. on Saturday, Juddmonte's Chaldean (GB) (Frankel {GB}) remains part of the G1 QIPCO 2000 Guineas field. After Tuesday's latest scratching stage, 20 colts are still entered in the first Classic of the British season on Saturday, May 6.

A winner of four of his six starts, the G1 Dewhurst S. hero is one of two in the one-mile race for Andrew Balding. Second in the Dewhurst, G2 Richmond S. scorer Royal Scotsman (Ire) (Gleneagles {Ire}) will attempt to turn the tables for Mrs. Fitri Hay and trainers Paul and Oliver Cole.

Ahmad Al Shaikh's G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud winner Dubai Mile (Ire) (Roaring Lion) remains in the race for Charlie Johnston, as do the Godolphin/Charlie Appleby pair of G2 Gimcrack S. winner Noble Style (GB) (Kingman {GB}) and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up Silver Knott (GB) (Lope De Vega {Ire}).

The Coolmore partners and Aidan O'Brien field a quintet led by Group 1 scorers Auguste Rodin (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) and Little Big Bear (Ire) (No Nay Never). G3 Killavullan S. hero Cairo (Ire) (Quality Road) is also signed on, as is G3 2000 Guineas Trial S. winner Hans Andersen (GB) (Frankel {GB}).

Third behind Auguste Rodin and Tuesday's Listed Weatherbys Digital Solutions Blue Riband Trial hero Epictetus (Ire) (Kingman {GB}) in the Vertem Futurity Trophy, Holloway Boy (GB) (Ulysses {Ire}) is one of three in the race for Karl Burke. Burke runner Indestructible (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}), who won the G3 Craven S. over the course-and-distance of the Guineas, will also take part. Group winners Charyn (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire}) and Sakheer (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}) hail from the stable of Roger Varian.

There is also still a chance of a royal runner, as the King and Queen Consort's two-for-two Slipofthepen (GB) (Night Of Thunder {Ire}) has also retained his entry for John and Thady Gosden.

In the fillies' equivalent on Sunday, May 7, 26 nominees have stood their ground, among them Group 1 winners Lezoo (GB) (Zoustar {Aus}), Meditate (Ire) (No Nay Never), and Tahiyra (Ire) (Siyouni {Fr}) for trainers Ralph Beckett, Aidan O'Brien, and Dermot Weld, respectively.

Beckett has also entered G3 Fred Darling S. heroine Remarquee (GB) (Kingman {GB}), while Hugo Palmer trains the runner-up in Stenton Glider (Ire) (Dandy Man {Ire}). Juddmonte's Juliet Siera (GB) (Bated Breath {GB}), a Group 3 winner, is also part of Beckett's Guineas challenge.

The first and second-place finishers from the G3 Nell Gwyn S. also have entries in Mammas Girl (GB) (Havana Grey {GB}) for Richard Hannon and Fairy Cross (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) for Charlie Appleby. Saeed bin Suroor's G2 Duchess Of Cambridge S. heroine and G1 Cheveley Park S. third Mawj (Ire) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}) has been entered. G2 May Hill S. heroine Polly Pott (GB) (Muhaarar {GB}) for trainer Ben Pauling is also part of the fray.

O'Brien is double-fisted in the Guineas, as his G3 1000 Guineas Trial S. victress Never Ending Story (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) defeated Kieran Cotter's Matilda Picotte (Ire) (Sioux Nation) by 2 1/2 lengths at Leopardstown earlier this month.

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