Equibase Analysis: Tokyo Gold, Not Bolshoi Ballet, The Horse To Beat In Belmont Derby

This Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Derby Invitational drew a field of nine horses, six which are stakes winners with five of those entering the race off victories. Leading the field in earnings is Tokyo Gold (FR), winner of the Group 3 Derby Italiano Universita Campus Bio-Med in May, otherwise known as the Italian Derby.

However, likely favoritism among bettors is likely to come from Bolshoi Ballet (IRE), winner of the Group 3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial before a disappointing seventh place finish as the betting favorite in the Group 1 Cazoo Derby (otherwise known as the Epsom Derby) last month.

Du Jour deserves respect as he enters the Belmont Derby off a victory in the Grade 2 American Turf Stakes in May, which was his third straight win. Similarly, Sainthood won the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge Stakes at the end of May at Belmont, but on dirt, when the race was transferred to the main track due to the condition of the turf course.

Cellist is another of the recent stakes winners, having captured the Audubon Stakes at the end of May, with Palazzi beaten three-quarters of a length when second in that race. Hard Love won the Woodhaven Stakes on turf in April following five months off before a strong allowance win last month.

Safe Conduct and Hidden Enemy (IRE) round out the field, the former an allowance winner at the start of May before a poor fourth place finish in the Pennine Ridge at the end of the month and the latter a non-threatening fourth in both the American Turf and Audubon.

Tokyo Gold (FR) had a fairly good 2-year-old campaign when winning the second and third starts of his career last summer, the latter of the two in a listed stakes. Finishing off his season, Tokyo Gold (FR) was beaten more than 20 lengths in a group three race but that was run on heavy ground which he did not care for. Returning for his sophomore season in March, Tokyo Gold (FR) finished second in a listed stakes before a fourth of nine finish in the Prix Noailles Stakes. His “light bulb” moment came in the Italian Derby on May 23 when, after racing in the back of the pack for most of the race, Tokyo Gold (FR) took to the middle of the track and accelerated strongly to win by four lengths, eased up at the finish.

The acceleration shown when given his cue in the Italian Derby showed Tokyo Gold (FR) had come of age and the pattern of improving ™ Equibase® Speed Figures this year (97, 105 then 107) suggests Tokyo Gold (FR) is the one to beat in this year's Belmont Derby Invitational, particularly as he is shortening up in distance from one mile and three-eighths to one mile and one-quarter and gets John Velazquez to ride.

Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) was sent to post as the fairly heavy favorite in the Epsom Derby last month on the strength of his six length win one month earlier in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial but checked in seventh. The reason for the poor effort was revealed as soon as the colt returned to be unsaddled as it was discovered he had sustained a cut to his hind leg in the early portions of the race. Prior to the Derby Trial, Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) won the Ballysax Stakes rather easily in his 3-year-old, following six months off. Earning a 106 ™ figure in the Ballysax before a new career-best 113 figure in the Derby Trial, it wouldn't be a leap to assume the colt would have improved again in the Epsom Derby if not for the injury and so if he returns to the form shown in those two earlier wins, both at the mile and one-quarter distance of the Belmont Derby, Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) could provide us with a thrilling battle with Tokyo Gold (FR) in this race.

Hard Love is an improving colt who has potential to post the minor upset if he continues the pattern of improvement he began in April after returning from five months off. A winner on debut last fall, Hard Love improved to a 102 figure effort when second in the Central Park Stakes, then following the layoff won the Woodhaven Stakes in April with a 99 figure. Flattered when the runner-up won his next start, Hard Love entered an allowance race over this turf course to prepare for the Belmont Derby and although not a stakes race it must be noted he was only one of two horses in the 12 horse field which were 3-year-olds, the rest being older horses. Improving markedly to a 105 figure winning that race, if Hard Love can take a similar step forward by six points into the 111 range he could run as well as either Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) and Tokyo Gold (FR) and as such may have a legitimate shot to win this year's Belmont Derby Invitational.

Another improving colt is Du Jour, who has won three races in a row. The pattern of improvement from 84 to 99 to 103 in terms of his Equibase Speed Figures shows a horse which is getting physically and mentally stronger as the season goes on. Du Jour earned his most recent win in the American Turf Stakes on Kentucky Derby day and prevailed nicely in a field of 14. Now in the hands of Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott and retaining the services of jockey Flavien Prat, who has been in the saddle for all three of the colt's wins, Du Jour has to be a horse we consider when wagering on this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Cellist (99), Hidden Enemy (IRE) (93), Palazzi (98), Safe Conduct (99) and Sainthood (101).

Win contenders:
Tokyo Gold (FR)
Bolshoi Ballet (IRE)
Hard Love
Du Jour

Belmont Derby Invitational – Grade 1
Race 9 at Belmont Park
Saturday July 10 – Post Time 5:12 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter on Turf
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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Former Baffert Trainee Du Jour Pointed For Grade 1 Belmont Derby

Du Jour, the winner of the G2 American Turf when conditioned by embattled trainer Bob Baffert, has been transferred to the barn of Bill Mott, according to the Daily Racing Form. The 3-year-old colt, owned by Baffert's wife, Jill, in partnership with Debbie Lanni, is being pointed to the Grade 1 Belmont Derby on July 10.

Baffert has been indefinitely banned from entering horses or utilizing stalls at New York Racing Association racetracks after the Medina Spirit Kentucky Derby controversy, including Belmont Park, hence the trainer switch.

Du Jour, a son of Temple City, has breezed twice for Mott at Belmont: a 49.23-second half on June 6, and a 48.62-second half on June 13. Mott said he believes the colt can move up in distance from the 1 1/8 miles of the American Turf to the 1 1/4 miles of the Belmont Derby.

Other horses reported to have been moved out of Baffert's barn include Bezos, Hozier, and Crystal Ball. All three have been transferred to Rodolphe Brisset, reports Horse Racing Nation, but the new trainer indicated the change has nothing to do with Baffert's Medina Spirit controversy.

“It's just the ownership and Mr. Baffert talked and decided to leave those horses around here and not bring them back to California,” Brisset told HRN.

Hozier will be pointed to the G3 Ohio Derby on June 26 at Thistledown, while Crystal Ball is headed to the Lady Jacqueline Stakes on the same card. No target has yet been named for Bezos.

Read more at the Daily Racing Form and at Horse Racing Nation.

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Another Baby with That Special Zip

On the face of it, just another graded stakes where you could round up the usual suspects. Bob Baffert as winning trainer and Bernardini as the successful damsire. And the success of Du Jour, in the GII American Turf S. on the Derby undercard was a welcome reminder of the value offered by his sire Temple City. But what really draws attention to this emerging talent is an extraordinary female lurking in his background.

No, we don't mean either of the owners, for all that both may qualify for the same description. Instead it's the blood of none other than Baby Zip–Du Jour is out of a granddaughter of the celebrated dam of Ghostzapper and City Zip–that permits the most important of all Baffert's clientele, his wife Jill, to dream that a horse she co-owns with Debbie Lanni could someday secure a place at stud.

Baby Zip died four years ago, at 26; and City Zip followed just three months later. He has posthumously continued to enrich their mutual legacy, with both Collected and Improbable winning at Grade I level before running second in the Breeders' Cup Classic–a vivid measure of the way a precocious sprinter by Carson City gradually expanded his portfolio. Ghostzapper meanwhile overcame a rocky start at stud to recycle his exceptional flair, most recently through G1 Dubai World Cup winner Mystic Guide. Both siblings tend to deal in stock that thrives with maturity, with City Zip's 7-year-old son C Z Rocket now among the fastest in the land; while Ghostzapper, from a line of broodmare sires, already has a Triple Crown winner to his credit in that guise.

Yet there was a curious imbalance to the breeding history of Baby Zip, a stakes-winning sprinter by Relaunch acquired by Frank Stronach for his Adena Springs broodmare band at the end of her racing career. Three of her first four named foals were fillies; but nine of her remaining 10 were colts. As a result, the value of her female line was established too late to have much chance of complementing the legacy she created through her sons.

Baby Zip's first foal, a Silver Ghost filly who won a maiden claimer in a light career, was sold for $32,000 just a few weeks before her next two made their respective debuts in 2000. One, a sophomore filly by Silver Deputy named Getaway Girl, would win three of five starts at Great Lakes. The other was City Zip (Carson City), who had been discarded as a short yearling for just $9,000 but included a storied Saratoga treble (GII Sanford S./GII Saratoga Special S./dead-heat for the GI Hopeful S.) among 11 juvenile starts. It was this spree that doubtless prompted the retention of Baby Zip's next foal, but unfortunately she was by an ordinary sire in Birdonthewire and proved unable to win.

Getaway Girl, meanwhile, was culled by Adena Springs for $65,000 after City Zip's sophomore campaign had levelled into a plateau that

City Zip | Tony Leonard

saw him start his stud career in New York at $7,500. Unfortunately for her purchasers, they moved Getaway Girl as soon as the following November, for $90,000 at Keeneland. She would prove poignantly well named. Just nine days after she left the ring, now in the ownership of Indian Creek, Baby Zip's 2-year-old by Awesome Again won by nine lengths on debut for Bobby Frankel at Hollywood Park.

As Ghostzapper matured into one of the great speed-carrying Thoroughbreds of the era–in the process earning City Zip a game-changing transfer to Kentucky–their half-sister's shrewd purchasers were able to cash in a series of yearlings at prices as high as $500,000. That standout dividend came through a Bernardini filly, at the 2011 September Sale, albeit Getaway Girl's return to that stallion did not prove quite so productive when the resulting yearling, again a filly, made $100,000 from David Redvers in the same ring three years later. This was Guiltless, the dam of Du Jour.

Having shown very little as a juvenile in England in the silks of Qatar Racing, Guiltless was quickly discarded for 32,000gns at Tattersalls. “Flipped” at Fasig-Tipton just three months later, she brought $60,000 from Woods Edge Farm.

Du Jour, her second foal, raised only $19,000 as a yearling from V.C. Corp, deep in the September Sale, but proved a wonderful pinhook when sold to agent Donato Lanni at last year's OBS “Spring” 2-Year-Old Sale–eventually a summer auction–for $280,000 after a :10 1/5 breeze for Off the Hook.

Bob Baffert couldn't resist trying Du Jour on dirt, after a promising debut, but the colt didn't really respond and, restored to the grass, he's now unbeaten in three starts since. Saturday's performance was a really stylish one, under a matching ride from Flavien Prat, and more of the same in the GI Belmont Derby might already give the home team hope for the Breeders' Cup. The Europeans tend to get away without having to beat Baffert, who candidly tends to view turf as his “last resort” for struggling horses.

Woods Edge has banked limited dividends from the first three foals out of Guiltless: her first foal (modest winner by Carpe Diem) did make $90,000, but we've seen Du Jour brought little and her Klimt filly last year made less. But she is only eight and Peter O'Callaghan, a worthy bluegrass ambassador for a clan of Irish horsemen touched by genius, can surely now anticipate a due yield on an inspired investment. Next off the belt is a yearling filly by Twirling Candy, while Guiltless was reportedly bred back to Not This Time.

The fact is that Baby Zip's family had become paradoxically quiet even as its two magnificent scions made her one of the most significant mares of recent years. The matriarch herself did produce one other talented runner from that sequence of colts, in Canadian Grade III winner City Wolf (Giant's Causeway); but her handful of early daughters generally proved mediocre producers. Indeed, the one by Birdonthewire was eventually sold for $800; while Adena Springs soon gave up on Baby Zip's only daughter after producing Ghostzapper, an unraced filly by Golden Missile sold to Russia for $50,000. Getaway Girl had already proved the exception, having emulated her mother in giving Giant's Causeway a Grade III winner in Canada, but now she has sparked new life into the dynasty through Guiltless.

Temple City | EquiSport photos

So let's give Temple City some credit, for stoking up those embers. In Du Jour's pedigree, after all, he places another quite exceptional female right opposite Baby Zip. Macoumba (Mr. Prospector) was a Group 1-winning half-sister to a Group 1 winner, the pair out of a Group 1 winner, and her whose first foal was Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy). Two years later she produced a filly by Danzig, Curriculum, who never made the track for breeder B. Wayne Hughes but when mated with Dynaformer produced a colt that would eventually assist the revival of the Spendthrift roster.

Temple City won a single Grade III before rounding off his career with a narrow defeat in the GI Hollywood Turf Cup, but his genes made him a legitimate roll of the dice. Because it has been a hallmark of the Roberto line–a vital source of substance and functionality in the modern breed–that its principal conduits have often proved more illustrious in their second careers than in their first. That was certainly true of Kris S., who had to earn his passage out of Florida; and equally so of Dynaformer, who started out at $5,000 at Wafare Farm before transferring into the big league at Three Chimneys.

Unfortunately Dynaformer's quest for an heir has proved troublesome: there was a preponderance of fillies and geldings among his best performers, while those who were equipped for a stud career were cursed by ill fortune. What happened to Barbaro was bad enough, but don't forget that Brilliant Speed–who has just resurfaced as damsire of none other than Medina Spirit (Protonico)–was killed by lightning at the age of eight.

There is much at stake for Dynaformer, then, in the stud careers of Point of Entry (who faced steep commercial odds from the outset, as a slow-maturing turf horse) and Temple City.

Auspiciously, Temple City represents the same formula as Arch, who wonderfully sustained the Kris S. branch of Roberto's line, being also out of a Danzig mare. But he faced the customary obstacles, too, as a late developer impolitic enough to save his best for a mile and a half of grass.

Malibu Moon is closely related to Temple City | Spendthrift photo

Fortunately, the propensity to exceed expectations at stud is not confined to Temple City's sireline. His dam's half-brother Malibu Moon was famously confined to a maiden success before starting his stud career at $3,000 in Maryland.

So it was perhaps unsurprising that Temple City should have made such a brisk start at stud. Launched into what has proved a remarkably strong intake (including Quality Road, Munnings, Lookin At Lucky, Blame, Kantharos and Midshipman), he mustered three Grade I performers among his first sophomores, a feat matched among his peers only by Blame. The following year Temple City had two Grade I winners over a single weekend, including Miss Temple City who ended up with third such prizes in what was her third campaign. Once again, then, this is wine that ages well: another graduate of his first crop, Bolo, was as old as seven before earning his Grade I (like Miss Temple City, over a mile on turf).

Hiked to $15,000, Temple City covered 360 mares across 2016 and 2017. That was a striking tribute to his merit, as a source of runners, but we know that the racetrack holds little interest for commercial breeders and by last year he was back down to 55 mares. With that loaded pipeline, then, the emergence of Du Jour could prove a very significant straw in the wind. Whatever additional talents may emerge from those big crops, after all, can be expected to stick around and keep his name in lights.

Even last year Temple City was quietly punching his weight, his black-type footprint (five winners, 14 on the podium) toe to toe with a bunch of more expensive stallions. All he lacked was a headline horse, and that's why Du Jour has the potential to become an important contributor to the whole Dynaformer story.

Du Jour | Coady

Just like Temple City, any eligibility he can establish for stud will be supported by a landmark name pegging down his maternal line. The overall package may contain a touch too much chlorophyll for commercial tastes, though whatever enabled Macoumba to produce a dirt stallion like Malibu Moon could yet be drawn out, through his genes if not his deeds, by the familiar seeding of Du Jour's family: his first three dams are by sons of A.P. Indy (Malibu Moon's sire, of course), Deputy Minister and In Reality. The next dam, incidentally, is by Tri Jet–a name dusted off by American Pharoah's third dam–and ultimately the line tapers to the same foundation as that of the great Affirmed (plus another Derby winner in Lil E. Tee).

What's so exciting, given his genetic profile, is that Du Jour should be capable of such a dashing exhibition as a sophomore on the first Saturday in May. The resonance of that benchmark directed most eyes to a barnmate later in the day, but just think of the tide against which Du Jour is wading, in terms of precocity. Between the record of Baby Zip's stallion sons, on the one hand, and the whole Roberto line on the other, the chances are that he is only just getting started.

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Du Jour Rides The Rail To Give Bafferts American Turf Victory

Owned in partnership by his wife, Jill Baffert, trainer Bob Baffert saddled the winner of Saturday's Grade 2 American Turf Stakes with 5-1 chance Du Jour. The 3-year-old son of Temple City stepped up to earn his first graded stakes win on Kentucky Derby day, riding the rail under Flavien Prat to hit the lead at the sixteenth pole and pulling away to win by 1 1/2 lengths on the wire. Du Jour, also owned by Debbie Lanni, wife of bloodstock agent Donato Lanni, ran 1 1/16 miles over Churchill Downs' firm turf course in 1:42.49.

Baffert told NBC that Donato Lanni had called him about the colt at the 2020 OBS April sale, telling him the son of Bernardini mare Guiltless was worth purchasing. Sold for $280,000 as a 2-year-old, Du Jour took three starts to break his maiden but hasn't lost since, racking up three wins in a row, including the American Turf.

“These turf horses are easier to train,” Baffert quipped. “You don't have to train them very hard. We tried to make a dirt horse out of him and he wasn't that good. Mike Smith rode him and said I think he likes the dirt. I'm really excited about it. And I'm just so happy for Jill. She has to deal with me as a trainer, and all the ups and downs. For that horse to win today, and to listen to her excitement, now she has something that's hers.”

Overall, the colt's record now stands at 3-1-1 from five starts for earnings of $375,220. Du Jour was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, and was originally a $19,000 yearling purchase at the Keeneland September sale.

It is the second victory in the race for Baffert who won in 2003 with Senor Swinger.

Excellent Timing jumped well from the gates and immediately went for the lead, pulling away by several lengths through a first quarter in :22.86. He slowed down to mark the half in :47.31, allowing Next, Winfromwithin, and Dyn O Mite to close the gap on that frontrunner. Du Jour was just behind those in fifth early, a couple paths off the hedge.

Rounding the far turn, Du Jour had to wait for racing room while other rivals chose the overland route on the far outside. Winfromwithin had taken over the lead and had a slight advantage in the stretch, but Prat finally saw a hole at the rail and sent Du Jour on through.

Prat shifted Du Jour outside Winfromwithin at the eighth pole and was able to run that rival down, then hold off a late charge from late-running Lucky Charge. At the wire, Du Jour was 1 1/2 lengths ahead of Lucky Charge, while Winfromwithin held third. Hidden Enemy checked in fourth, followed by Palazzi, Royal Prince, Chess's Dream, Annex, Scarlett Sky, Holy Vow, Next, Dyn O Mite, Barrister Tom and Excellent Timing.

“The key was getting him to relax down inside,” Prat said. “I actually sent him quite a bit out of the gate and then it's always a question of if they can come back to you after that. It felt like they were going a good clip up front and that helped him to relax too. He traveled well and when I asked him to split horses, he did it nicely.”

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