Even With Top Colt Sidelined, Life On Triple Crown Trail Is Still Good For Baffert

 Medina Spirit, twice runner-up to unbeaten stablemate Life Is Good, is scheduled to have his final major work Sunday for the Grade 1 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, a race trainer Bob Baffert has won a record nine times, starting with California-bred Cavonnier in 1996 and culminating to date with Roadster in 2019.

Even with the defection of early Kentucky Derby favorite Life Is Good due to a small chip in his left hind ankle, Baffert still has three other Triple Crown hopefuls, among them undefeated San Vicente Stakes and Rebel Stakes winner Concert Tour, who worked five furlongs Saturday morning in 1:00.80 under Juan Ochoa for the Arkansas Derby on April 10.

“He went great; he looked fantastic,” the two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer said of the son of Street Sense owned and bred by Gary and Mary West.

“He couldn't have looked any better. He just cruised around there in a minute and change.”

Runhappy Santa Anita Derby candidates working Saturday included Dream Shake for Peter Eurton, five furlongs in 59.80, Roman Centurian, five furlongs in 1:00.40 for Simon Callaghan, and The Great One, six furlongs in 1:14.20 for Doug O'Neill.

The 68-year-old Baffert is closing in on fellow Hall of Fame member D. Wayne Lukas for the lead in Grade 1 wins from Jan. 1, 1976 through yesterday. The 85-year-old Lukas has 219 wins from 1,390 starts; Baffert is one back with 218 from 915 starts.

With 896 career wins at Santa Anita (not including Oak Tree), Baffert also is nearing the record for most races won at The Great Race Place, 21 behind the late Bobby Frankel's 917.

The Runhappy Santa Anita Derby headlines six stakes this Saturday, four of them graded and two showcasing California-bred or sired runners.

In addition to the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, they are the G2 Santa Anita Oaks for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 miles; the G2 Royal Heroine for fillies and mares 4 and up at one mile on turf; and the G3 Providencia Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/8 miles on turf.

Also, the two Golden State Series races, the $150,000 Echo Eddie Stakes for three year olds at 6 ½ furlongs and the $150,000 Evening Jewel Stakes for three-year-old fillies at 6 ½ furlongs.

Saturday's local weather forecast calls for partly cloudy skies, zero percent chance of rain, and a high of 77 degrees.

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Into Mischief Colt Life Is Good Crushes San Felipe Rivals

Over a racetrack that has not been producing sizzling times, Bob Baffert's Life Is Good, in only his third career start, rendered six rivals insignificant as he fairly waltzed to a massive eight-length win in Saturday's Grade 2, $300,000 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif., further affirming his status as the West's dominant Kentucky Derby hopeful.  Ridden by Mike Smith, Life Is Good led gate to wire and despite the fact he drifted out very wide through the lane, stopped the clock for 1 1/6 miles in a rapid 1:42.18.

Breaking from the rail, Life Is Good was instantly in command, with Smith sitting still as he enjoyed a 2 ½ length lead seven furlongs from home.  Down the backside, Life Is Good was totally unpressured and was four lengths clear mid-way around the far turn.  From there, it seemed it was just a matter of how far he'd win by as he maintained an insurmountable advantage.

While providing Baffert with his record eighth San Felipe win, Life Is Good, a colt by Into Mischief, out of the Distorted Humor mare Beach Walk, picked up 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, giving him 60 total and thus assuring himself a berth in the Run for the Roses on May 1 while also firmly establishing himself the heavy favorite for the Grade I Runhappy Santa Anita Derby on April 3.

“I think he showed that he could get the distance, when a horse can get a mile and a sixteenth the way he did today, it gives you every indication they could go an eighth of a mile further,” said Smith.

When asked about the fact Life Is Good drifted out to about the 10-path in deep stretch, Smith attributed it to Santa Anita's Infield Big Screen.

“When the Big Screen is lit up, they can see it,” said Smith.  “In the mornings, he goes by the screen like it's nothing because it's not on.  He was locked on it down the lane today.  He's just so talented.  I had a strong hold on him down to the wire, just holding onto him, making sure that he stayed straight.”

A gate to wire winner of the G3 Sham Stakes going one mile on Jan. 2, Life Is Good was off at 1-2 and paid $3.00, $2.20 and $2.10.

“I like the way he got away from the gate, both of my horses (including runner-up Medina Spirit) got away cleanly, they were in a good spot,” said Baffert, who will now go about angling on winning his record 10th Santa Anita Derby.  “Down the backside, that's where this horse can get a little tough and I was hoping we'd get a little 47 and change (half mile).  But Mike just sat on him, he was doing it so easily, I saw 46 and four, I said, 'Well, I think I could live with that.'  I always thought he would be a super horse … but at the quarter pole, I could tell he was just still cruising, just doing it easy.”

Owned by CHC Inc. and WinStar Farm, Life Is Good, who is unbeaten in three starts, picked up $180,000 for the win, increasing his earnings to $274,200.

A close second to Life Is Good in the Sham, Medina Spirit never threatened his stablemate, but shook off a challenge from Dream Shake in the final three sixteenths to be second by 2 ¼ lengths.  Off at 3-1 with John Velazquez, Medina Spirit paid $2.80 and $2.20.

Dream Shake, who came off an impressive first-time maiden win sprinting, was third best, finishing 3 ¼ lengths better than Roman Centurian.  Off at 8-1 with Joel Rosario, Dream Shake paid $3.00 to show.

Fractions on the race, all set by the winner, were 23.63, 46.83, 1:10.55 and 1:35.46.

In addition to the 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points awarded to the winner, the second, third and fourth place finishers will receive 20, 10 and five.

Updated Kentucky Derby leaderboard

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Life Is Good Puts Perfect Record on the Line in San Felipe

Unbeaten 'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good (Into Mischief), the 7-1 individual favorite in Pool 3 of the GI Kentucky Derby Future Wager, will look to go three-for-three in Saturday's GII San Felipe S. The 1 1/16-miles contest offers 50-20-10-5 points on the road to the Kentucky Derby.

The blowout debut winner at Del Mar Nov. 22 set an uncontested pace while making his two turn-debut in the GIII Sham S. Jan. 2, and, after very confident handling beneath Mike Smith in the stretch, held a 3/4-length advantage over stablemate Medina Spirit (Protonico). The rail-drawn, 4-5 morning-line favorite tackles an additional sixteenth of a mile in the San Felipe.

Life Is Good, owned by CHC Inc. and WinStar Farm, is on the same trajectory, to this point at least, as another Bob Baffert-trained son of Into Mischief, the brilliant Authentic, who pulled off the Sham/San Felipe double in 2020 en route to a Horse of the Year campaign, which also included wins in the GI Kentucky Derby and GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

The bargain $35,000 OBSOPN buy Medina Spirit, meanwhile, proved his effort in the Sham was certainly legit with a refuse-to-lose, front-running tally by a neck after taking heat through fast fractions in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Jan. 30.

“He's a good horse and I could tell that Mike was just cruising out there,” Baffert said of Life Is Good after the Sham. “It reminded me a lot of Authentic last year, when he did the same thing, and he looked like a drunk out there coming down [the stretch]. I think Mike did a great job just sort of cruising around there and it was just the kind of race we were looking for. They ran pretty fast, these are two good horses.”

'TDN Rising Star' Roman Centurian (Empire Maker) closed from last of six and made a flashy, four-wide rally on the far turn to finish a strong second in a blanket photo after bumping with a rival in the stretch in his stakes debut in the Robert B. Lewis.

“He's a very talented horse,” trainer Simon Callaghan said. “I think the San Felipe will reveal a lot, but again, Roman Centurian is a very good horse. I'm happy with him and looking forward to the race.”

Dream Shake (Twirling Candy) heads straight to the deep end for trainer Peter Eurton following an eye-catching 'TDN Rising Star' debut score at 20-1–good for a 96 Beyer Speed Figure–going 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita Feb. 7. The stacked field that day included the very hyped Baffert-trained firster Bezos (Empire Maker), who never fired in seventh.

The Great One (Nyquist), second, beaten a nose as a maiden in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity Dec. 19, enters off a blowout 14-length graduation for Doug O'Neill over three rivals at Santa Anita Jan. 23.

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NYRA Looks Out for Its Customer; Good for Them

The Week in Review by Bill Finley

It's not often in this sport that John Q. Horseplayer gets a break, but that's exactly what happened last week when it was revealed that NYRA was no longer accepting bets from the so-called computer-assisted wagering (CAW) players on its Empire Six wager. The Empire Six wager joined the Cross Country Pick 5 and the late Pick 5 as NYRA wagers that are no longer available to the CAW players.

The computer players use algorithms that predict the probability of a particular outcome. If their programs tell them that a horse has a 50-50 chance of winning and is 3-1 they will bet accordingly. They use the same methods for most pools and bet huge amounts of money. Because they receive rebates in the neighborhood of 10%, they don't even have to show a profit on their bets, just as long as their rebates are bigger than their losses.

The number of bettors out there using these methods is minimal, no more than six or seven groups. But they bet so much money that they can severely tilt the pools and drive down prices by significant numbers. The Thoroughbred Idea Foundation estimates that CAW play accounts for as much as 35% of all monies wagered on U.S. racing. That would mean their annual handle is about $3.5 billion.

Not that they are doing anything wrong or breaking any rules. These are very smart and innovative people who are willing to risk huge sums of money and have designed computer programs that put them several steps ahead of the average player. A case can be made that they deserve every last nickel they have made betting on racing, not just in the U.S. but around the globe.

CAW players are, for obvious reasons, coveted by most American tracks. Tracks make money off of their percentage of the betting handle. Taking a micro view of how the business of racing works, why would any track turn away customers that might be betting tens of millions of dollars every year on their product?

If only it were that simple.

This is pari-mutuel wagering, gambling's version of survival of the fittest. The successful bettors are taking advantage of the unsuccessful ones. It's their money that they are winning, not the house's money. With the CAW phenomenon, which appears to be growing all the time, betting on the horses has turned into a matter of the whales vs. minnows. The whales have been gobbling up the minnows and after a while all the minnows will be gone.

It's already happening. The CAW players are pumping billions into the pools across the country, which is a fairly recent phenomenon, yet handle has been stagnant over recent years when it comes to real numbers and has declined sharply when adjusting for inflation. That can only mean that a lot of those who might bet $20 on a race, $200 on a card and play the races once or twice a week have been driven out of the game. Horseplayers only have so much money to spend on the sport and once you tap them out they are going to move on.

The regular players are getting particularly hurt in the jackpot wagers. The pools build up on their losing dollars and are too often scooped up by the CAW players, sometimes on a mandatory payout date.

NYRA took a look at this and, obviously, had some concerns.

“We are trying to level the playing field with these particular multi-race wagers so it's not tilted towards those folks with distinct advantages, meaning complicated algorithmic trading tools and an extremely high volume,” NYRA spokesman Pat McKenna told Steve Byk on his “At the Races” radio show.

McKenna noted that NYRA can operate differently from other tracks because it is a not-for-profit and doesn't always have to adhere to the bottom line. It would be far more difficult for a Churchill Downs track or a Stronach Group track to turn away the CAW money. But even NYRA hasn't gone so far as to ban the CAW players all together. They are still welcome in all other pools and they are the reason why so many horses go into the gate at 4-1 and drop to 8-5 during the running of the race, which is a terrible look for the sport. CAW wagers go directly into the pools and can be played at the very last second.

The status quo is not sustainable. Every day that this persists, another casual horseplayer gives up on the game. Racing cannot do without these everyday players. After a while, you're going to have nothing left but whales vs. whales.

But good luck trying to get a for-profit track to turn away bettors willing to wager millions on their product. Probably the best anyone can hope for would be for NYRA to extend the exclusion into other pools and for other non-profit tracks like Del Mar and Keeneland to also experiment by barring CAW players from some pools.

This is a serious problem for the sport and it's not going away. At least NYRA is trying to make a bad situation better.

Dream Shake Impresses

There were expectations that a star would emerge from Sunday's fifth race at Santa Anita, a maiden special weight going 6 1/2 furlongs. It happened, but just not with the horse everyone was expecting to win.

Sent off at 20-1, 'TDN Rising Star' Dream Shake (Twirling Candy) turned in what might have been the most impressive 3-year-old debut so far this year. Trained by Peter Eurton and ridden by Joel Rosario, he kicked into high gear in the stretch and won going away, by 4 3/4 lengths.

Eurton admitted that he never envisioned such a performance.

“He went way beyond my expectations,” he said. “I had never really challenged him whatsoever. He was an unknown. For him to have closed and ran fourth with a nice finish and a nice gallop-out would have been satisfying, especially against the field of horse we were facing. There were a lot of horses in there that people thought highly of.”

All indications are that the horse will be even better when stretching out.

“He acts like, to me, a two-turn horse,” Eurton said. “He's not ultra quick but neither is he slow. Once he gets going, he covers quite a bit of ground. Going two turns is, hopefully, in the cards for his next race.”

Eurton said he has not picked out the next start for Dream Shake but said a stakes race is a possibility.

The same race included a rare bad showing from the Bob Baffert barn. He entered two highly regarded first time starters in Bezos (Empire Maker), the 3-5 favorite, and Tivoli Twirl (Twirling Candy) only to have them both get beaten by 15-plus lengths. That was bad news for the people who foolishly bet on Bezos in the Derby Future wager before he had even had a start, sending him off at 26-1. The Baffert horses deserve a second shot, but it seems highly unlikely now that either one will make the GI Kentucky Derby.

The Katie Davis Saga

Earlier this week, we wrote about Katie Davis's unhappiness over the New York Gaming Commission's coupled entries rule.

The real point of the story is that she is being penalized by what is quite possibly the silliest, most out-of-touch rule on the books over at the Gaming Commission. There's no valid reason why her mounts must run as an entry with husband Trevor McCarthy's mounts when the two are in the same race. Protecting the betting public is one thing, but it's completely unnecessary in this situation.

This is hurting Davis. It is hurting McCarthy. And it's cutting into NYRA's handle. It's well past the point where the Gaming Commission should have revisited the rule and taken it off the books.

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