drayden van dyke | Horse Racing Free Tips

Baffert: Improbable ‘Getting Really Good’ While Maximum Security ‘Didn’t Bring His ‘A’ Game’

It was business as usual for Bob Baffert Sunday morning at Santa Anita after the two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer savored victories on Saturday by undefeated Princess Noor and relatively unsung Improbable in Breeders' Cup Challenge Series races at the Arcadia, Calif., track.

Princess Noor proved convincingly she can handle two turns, giving Baffert a record 12th triumph in the Grade 2 Chandelier Stakes at 1 1/16 miles, while Improbable rallied from last to capture the G1 Awesome Again Stakes, vanquishing stablemate and odds-on favorite Maximum Security in the process.

“You're never sure about going two turns, and she was stuck behind horses coming out of the one hole, but she came out of the race really well,” Baffert said of Princess Noor, a $1,350,000 purchase owned by Saudi businessman Amr Zedan who campaigns as Zedan Racing

“She's still doing her thing and it looks like two turns is not going to be a problem for her,” Baffert added.

Princess Noor will likely be the favorite for the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland on Nov. 6.

Improbable and Maximum Security are likely headed to the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic on Nov. 7, Improbable earning a fees-paid berth with his Awesome Again victory and Maximum Security winning a similar spot through his triumph in the G1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar.

“Improbable and Max came out really well. I knew there was going to be a lot of pace, and we were going to sit off of it and then let Max run, but he was in between Midcourt and they were just bumping the whole way down the backside.

“They were in a full drive from the half-mile pole, but he didn't bring his A game, and Improbable is getting really good. He's got a lot of Grade 1's on his resume, he's filled out, matured, and Drayden (Van Dyke) rode a great race, just sat back there early on.

“He saw what was happening up front and let them go.”

Next up for Baffert is Saturday's Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Md. Thousand Words worked five furlongs in 1:00.60 Saturday at Churchill Downs towards that goal while Kentucky Derby winner Authentic works there Monday.

“As long as Authentic works good, both horses will ship to Maryland on Tuesday,” Baffert said.

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Baffert 1-2 As Improbable Defeats Maximum Security In Awesome Again

With his highly regarded stablemate pressured while a joint second between horses going to the far turn, Bob Baffert's rapidly improving Improbable kicked into high gear from dead last and swept to an emphatic 4 1/2-length score in Saturday's Grade 1, $300,000 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif., a key prep for the G1, $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland Nov 7.

Ridden by Drayden Van Dyke, Improbable got a mile and one eighth in 1:49.01 while notching his third consecutive G1 victory.

The Awesome Again, named for the 1998 Breeders' Cup Classic winner that was bred in Ontario, Canada, by Frank Stronach and owned by his Stronach Stables, is a Breeders' Cup “Win & You're In” Challenge Race qualifier, with the winner earning a fees-paid berth into the Grade I, $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland on Nov. 7.

Longshot Take the One O One, ridden by Jose Valdivia, Jr., set a solid pace while Maximum Security, regarded by many as the best horse in America, sat a joint second between Sleepy Eyes Todd and Midcourt, while Take the One O One opened up to a two-length lead a quarter mile out, only to see the winner sweep by four-deep turning for home.

“I knew I was coming in here with two really good horses,” said Baffert, who collected his fourth Awesome Again win. “Maximum Security was in that scrum and they were really running up close (together). I saw Drayden, he knew what was happening, so he just sat back. He rode a great race, he knew what was going on, he took his time, rode him with patience.

“He's had good luck with this horse. He loves this track. He seems to be better in the gate here, that's why we ran him here. I hate to see my horses have to beat the other horse but 'Max' ran gallantly. He fended off the speed, but the next one is the big one. But today, it was all about Improbable.”

Owned by WinStar Farm, LLC, China Horse Club International, Ltd. and SF Racing, LLC, Improbable, fifth as the favorite behind Maximum Security in the 2019 Kentucky Derby and most recently a winner of the G1 Whitney at Saratoga Aug. 1 and the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita June 6, was off at 9-5 and paid $5.60, $2.40 and $2.10.

“The gate guy did a fabulous job with him, holding him still, he got out clean,” said Van Dyke, who has now won six races with Improbable, including the Hollywood Gold Cup. “I was going to see what everyone else was gonna do, and they did what they did and I did what I did and it worked out good.”

With regard to his thoughts on the upcoming Breeders' Cup Classic, Van Dyke took an introspective approach. “I take it a day at a time and I'm grateful for this win. He showed a different tactic today, which he showed before when he was two. He used to come off the pace more than usual…He's been training super, so I was just waiting for the stretch to come.

“It's awesome, especially for Bob and the owners, everyone involved. I'm grateful for the chance. He's gotten better and better. He's a great horse.”

With today's win, Improbable, a 4-year-old colt by City Zip out of the A.P. Indy mare Rare Event, collected his fourth G1 win and improved his overall mark to 14-7-3-0. With the winner's share of $180,000, he increased his earnings to $1,709,520.

Maximum Security, who became the only horse in Kentucky Derby history to be disqualified from victory for a racing infraction, had a six-race winning streak snapped in what was his third start for Baffert. Pressured between horses throughout, he battled gamely for the place, finishing a half length in front of Midcourt.

Reunited with Luis Saez, who last rode him in the $20 million Saudi Cup three starts back on Feb. 29, Maximum Security was the 1-2 favorite in a field of five and paid $2.10 and $2.10.

“There was a lot of pressure along the way and he couldn't get comfortable, but that's how these races go,” said Saez. “You win sometimes and don't others. The good thing is he pulled up pretty good, so let's see how next time goes. He was fighting at the end of the race, but we lost.”

Off at 12-1 with Victor Espinoza, Midcourt paid $2.40 to show.

Fractions on the race were 23.33, 46.36, 1:09.79 and 1:35.65.

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Improbable Romps In the Awesome Again

The lesser-fancied of the Bob Baffert-trained duo, ‘TDN Rising Star’ Improbable (City Zip) was uncustomarily taken well off a fast early pace, began to hit his best stride while wide on the second turn, inhaled the leading group in upper stretch and rolled home to defeat odds-on Maximum Security (New Year’s Day) by 4 1/2 lengths in the GI Awesome Again S. at Santa Anita.

Though he hadn’t been more than two lengths off the early pace in any of his last four races, Improbable was taken back to last by Drayden Van Dyke as Take the One O One (Acclamation) set a fast pace, clocking fractions of :23.33 and :46.36, with Maximum Security in hot pursuit. Improbable began to catch the eye midway on the final turn, rolled five wide under a full head of steam into the stretch and powered clear.

Maximum Security, with Luis Saez back in the saddle, won the battle for second while tasting defeat for the first time since the Pegasus S. last June. He was perfect in two prior attempts since joining the Bob Baffert barn, including a powerful score in the GI TVG Pacific Classic S. last time Aug. 22.

The Awesome Again was the second Breeders’ Cup Challenge race win for Improbable in 2020, who previously earned his way into the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic with his victory in the GI Whitney S. at Saratoga last month.
The beaten favorite in last term’s GI Kentucky Derby and GI Preakness S. kicked off 2020 with a runner-up finish in the Oaklawn Mile S. Apr. 11, then broke through with a powerful performance in the GI Hollywood Gold Cup S. June 6 prior to his equally impressive win at the Spa.

Pedigree Notes:

City Zip died at age 19 three years ago, but he remains a top sire with 88 black-type winners covering all surfaces and multiple distances. His 33 graded winners have contributed mightily to his tally of over $105 million in progeny earnings, and Improbable is one of his sire’s 11 millionaires. City Zip is a half-brother to 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, whose sire, Awesome Again, is the namesake of this latest Improbable win. Improbable’s dam, the A.P. Indy mare Rare Event, is out of a half-sister to GISW and leading sire Hard Spun (Danzig). Rare Event’s most recent produce is a yearling colt by Cross Traffic. She was bred to Curlin for 2021. Improbable is the most successful of three stakes winners by City Zip out of A.P. Indy mares, with the others being MSW Lipstick City and SW Marshall Eddy, both on the turf.

Saturday, Santa Anita
AWESOME AGAIN S.-GI, $300,000, Santa Anita, 9-26, 3yo/up,
1 1/8m, 1:49.01, ft.
1–IMPROBABLE, 126, c, 4, by City Zip
                1st Dam: Rare Event, by A.P. Indy
                2nd Dam: Our Rite of Spring, by Stravinsky
                3rd Dam: Turkish Tryst, by Turkoman
   ‘TDN Rising Star‘ ($110,000 Wlg ’16 KEENOV; $200,000 Ylg ’17
KEESEP). O-WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club International
Ltd. & SF Racing LLC; B-St. George Farm LLC & G. Watts
Humphrey Jr. (KY); T-Bob Baffert; J-Drayden Van Dyke.
$180,000. Lifetime Record: 14-7-3-0, $1,709,520. Werk Nick
   Rating: A. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Maximum Security, 126, c, 4, New Year’s Day–Lil Indy, by
Anasheed. O-Gary & Mary West, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael

Tabor & Derrick Smith; B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc.

(KY); T-Bob Baffert. $60,000.
3–Midcourt, 124, g, 5, Midnight Lute–Mayo On the Side, by
French Deputy. ($450,000 Ylg ’16 KEESEP). O-C R K Stable LLC;
B-Dixiana Farms LLC (KY); T-John A. Shirreffs. $36,000.
Margins: 4HF, HF, 3 3/4. Odds: 1.80, 0.50, 12.70.
Also Ran: Take the One O One, Sleepy Eyes Todd.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

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Baffert Will Leave Awesome Again Strategy Up To Riders Of Maximum Security, Improbable

Maximum Security, the nation's leading older horse, has run at six different tracks in his brilliant 12-race career and will add No. 7 when he debuts at Santa Anita in Saturday's Grade I Awesome Again Stakes.

It is one of five Breeders' Cup “Win and You're In” Challenge Races presented Saturday, offering the winner a fees-paid berth to their respective Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland Nov. 6 & 7.

Maximum Security is trained by Bob Baffert, who has horses entered in four of the 11 races, seven of them stakes. Four of Baffert's runners also are in “Win and You're In” events: Princess Noor, Varda and $4,000 supplemental nominee Illumination in the Grade I Chandelier Stakes for two-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 miles, and Spielberg in the Grade I American Pharoah Stakes for two-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles.

Luis Saez is reunited with Maximum Security and also rides Spielberg and Illumination. Drayden Van Dyke is back aboard Improbable in the Awesome Again. They won the Grade I Gold Cup at Santa Anita on June 6.

As for strategy, Baffert tends to leave it up to the riders.

“Saez knows the horse really well and Drayden knows Improbable really well, so they'll just figure it out themselves,” he said. “They know what to do.

“Even in a small field the break is very important, but both horses are doing exceptionally well. Hopefully they'll use this race as a steppingstone to the Big Show (Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland on Nov. 7).

“I hate to really run them against each other, but it gives Improbable an extra two weeks to get ready for the Breeders' Cup. He runs better when he's a bit fresher, so that's why we're running them together.”

Improbable doesn't have to carry his track around with him. Of his 13 career races, eight have come on different tracks: Santa Anita, Saratoga, Oaklawn Park, Parx, Del Mar, Pimlico, Churchill Downs and Los Alamitos.

A multiple Grade I-winning son of City Zip, the four-year-old chestnut has won six times with three seconds, earning $1,529,520.

Maximum Security is coming off two straight wins for Baffert at Del Mar, including the Grade I TVG Pacific Classic. The four-year-old son of New Year's Day has won 10 of 12 career starts with an enormous bankroll of $12,191,900.

The bay colt looms an odds-on choice, one of two in that category Baffert has entered Saturday, the other being Princess Noor in the Chandelier Stakes.

Baffert also has the maiden Spielberg entered in the American Pharoah. The chestnut son of Union Rags out of the Smart Strike dam Miss Squeal was second to Dr. Schivel in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity at seven furlongs on Sept. 7.

A $1,350,000 daughter of the prodigious young stallion Not This Time, Princess Noor drew the rail against four rivals, two of them also trained by Baffert. She will be going two turns for the first time, having won her debut race on the lead by 2 ½ lengths at 5 ½ furlongs before taking the Grade I Del Mar Debutante at seven furlongs on Sept. 6, coming from just off the pace to vanquish three others by 6 ½ lengths.

She was the 7-10 favorite in both starts, each time ridden by Victor Espinoza, who guided American Pharoah to a Triple Crown sweep for Baffert in 2015 and who retains the mount on Princess Noor Saturday.

“She's fast; she's shown brilliant speed,” Baffert said. “She's coming back a little quick but she's been handling everything we've thrown at her, so we're looking forward to the race.

“I think Spielberg should like two turns. They went really fast early in the Futurity (45 flat for four furlongs and 1:10.60 for six furlongs) and he got beat by a really nice horse.

“I really think two turns will be better for him, just the way he moves and all. He's bred for it.”

The Chandelier, race three: Princess Noor, (2-5) Victor Espinoza; Make Mischief, (5-1) Abel Cedillo; Varda, (8-1) Drayden Van Dyke; Illumination, (6-1) Luis Saez; and Miss Costa Rica, (6-1) Flavien Prat.

The American Pharoah, race eight: Touchdown Brown, (5-1) Juan Hernandez; Rombauer, Mike Smith; Dyn O Mite, (20-1) Victor Espinoza; Notable Exception, (7-2) Abel Cedillo; Spielberg, (3-1) Luis Saez; Get Her Number, (7-2) Flavien Prat; Weston, (6-1) Drayden Van Dyke; and Waspirant, (6-1) Umberto Rispoli.

The Awesome Again, race 10: Take the One O One, (20) Jose Valdivia Jr.; Improbable, (8-5) Drayden Van Dyke; Sleepy Eyed Todd, (12-1) Umberto Rispoli; Midcourt, (6-1) Victor Espinoza; and Maximum Security, (3-5) Luis Saez.

First post time for Saturday's stakes studded card is 12:30 p.m.

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