Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: Don’t Sleep On California Spangle, Even With A Step Up In Class

Not only will the blazing-fast California Spangle stretch out beyond 1,200 meters for the first time in the Hong Kong Classic Mile when he tries 1,600 meters but it will be his first start against stakes company. It seems to be a lot to ask but so far, all he has done is provide answers.

California Spangle began his career on June 13 last year in a Griffin race going five furlongs at Sha Tin. After an awkward start, he quickly seized command in the first 400 meters and streaked down the straight of the 1,000-meter sprint. An easy winner by a length, his time of 55.33 seconds was a class record for the distance. Back on July 4 against the same class but stretched out to 1200 meters, he romped by 2 ¼ lengths in 1:08.47 seconds with his last 400 meters in 22.64. Did I mention he carried 133 pounds?

So, after his summer break, Tony Cruz brought him out in a class 3 handicap going 1,200 meters on Oct. 24. From post 12, he was used hard to get over to the inside and ran his first 400 meters in 23.00. While that might not seem fast at first glance, remember that the races are automatically timed and there is not a run-up to a timing pole like we have. Twenty-three flat is the fastest first 400 meters run this year in 1,200-meter races at Sha Tin and California Spangle paid the price in the final yards when Rock Ya Heart nailed him on the wire.

He only picked up one pound off the loss and even from post 13, he came back four weeks later and won easily. With his rating now 82, Cruz moved him up to class 2 where he got in with a feathery 116 pounds. After setting a much slower pace, Fantastic Way put a nose in front but California Spangle kicked back in and drew off to win by a length while covering his last 400 meters in a blistering 22.35 seconds.

Carrying 124 pounds off that win, Tony Cruz kept him in class 2 at 1,200 meters and did not look the gift horse in the mouth. Even though it was the easiest of wins, he showed more gears in this effort as Zac Purton used him to make the lead, got him to switch off, went to the whip in the homestretch, then eased him up nearing the wire. His final time of 1:08.34 seconds was his fastest yet.

Now, he will try to negotiate another 400 meters down the long backstretch at Sha Tin. But it is his blazing speed that gives me confidence that he will be able to do it. The Classic Mile has big implications for the field. The purse of HK$12,000,000 is five times more than any of them have raced for. Knowing what California Spangle brings to the table, I'm not sure how many will wish to sacrifice their chances by engaging in a pace duel.

When I watch the replays of California Spangle's races, I see a fast horse. I do not see a headstrong horse. Once he gets away from the starting gate, it is his cruising speed that dominates. One-turn middle-distance races are often dominated by the horse with the best cruising speed. Run at level weights carrying 126 pounds, the Classic Mile should be right up his alley.

California Spangle's pedigree is another reason to think he can get the distance. Starspangledbanner was a group-one stakes winner in Australia going 5 ½ furlongs but upset the Caulfield Guineas (G1) at 12-1 going a mile over So You Think and Denman.

Brought to Europe and switched to Aidan O'Brien, he beat 23 others in the Golden Jubilee Stakes (G1) then came back to win the July Cup (G1); both at six furlongs. After his first stud career failed to get enough mares in foal, he came back two years later but could only finish second in a group three sprint at the Curragh.

Yes, he mostly sires sprinters but California Spangle's dam is by High Chaparral who won the 1 ½-mile Epsom Derby (G1), Irish Derby (G1) and back-to-back runnings of the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1). He has sired numerous group stakes winners going long including a winner of the two-mile Melbourne Cup (G1).

So California Spangle has the genetic ability to get the distance of the Classic Mile. And he is trained by Tony Cruz who has masterfully prepped him for the 1600 meters with four, 1200 meter races in around 100 days. If he can't win the Hong Kong Classic Mile, it won't be from not being fit enough.

 

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Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: After Name Change, Naboo Attack On The Upswing In Time For Hong Kong Sprint

The Group 1 Longines Hong Kong Sprint will not be run until Sunday, Dec. 12 but I have already made up my mind. Naboo Attack is my choice regardless of the post position draw and it will be his first stakes win of any kind.

Naboo Attack won five of seven starts in Australia when he was known as Command N'Conquer. He shipped to Hong Kong and did not make his debut until May 30 of this year in a class 2 handicap. Carrying a feathery 117 pounds (he weighs over 1,360 pounds!), he pounced on the leaders and won going away in 1:07.92 seconds with Vincent Ho aboard.

Rested for the summer, David Hayes had him out the first week of this year's racing season and he faced 95+ handicap foes with an even lighter impost of 113 pounds. Despite a slower pace, he dominated by a length in 1:08.11. Since his rating was only increased by 10 points off that win, he was still eligible for class 2 company and he faced them on Sept. 26.

However, he had to carry 133 pounds and with the rail way out at the C+3 position, he was far back early. Turning for home, Zac Purton knew swinging wide would not work so he picked his way through traffic down on the inside to get up for second. Even with his massive size, Naboo Attack showed he is nimble enough to run between horses and considering the weight he carried and trip he endured, it was a stakes-quality effort.

The only real blemish on his record was his stakes debut at Sha Tin in the Premier Bowl Handicap (G2). Carrying 114 pounds and sent off as the second choice in the wagering, Naboo Attack — with his fourth different rider in four races in Hong Kong — had trouble down the backstretch out of the gate which kept him stuck down on the inside. When he looked for room turning for home, the hole closed and for the first time did not show his lethal, late kick.

Undaunted, Hayes brought him back five weeks later for the BOCHK Jockey Club Sprint (G2) and the big guy was back. Carrying 123 pounds and Zac Purton, he languished far back early with a first 400 meters run in 24.73 seconds and then began to catch up. A second 400-meter section in 21.55 seconds got him into contention and through the stretch he passed all but the red-hot Lucky Patch. His final time of 1:08.11 was good enough to win this race most years and he gets Karis Teetan who rode him to victory back in September.

Of the local sprinters, I feel Naboo Attack is the best and still has some upside. He ran sub 22-second last 400-meter sectionals in three of his four starts this season and can shade 1:08 on any day. The Japanese contingent is led by the defending champion Danon Smash and will be tough as always but local sprinters have won six of the last seven runnings and horses like Naboo Attack and Lucky Patch have emerged as a new generation of domestic stars.

A word of caution: fasten your seatbelts since this race will not be decided until the final strides.

The post Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: After Name Change, Naboo Attack On The Upswing In Time For Hong Kong Sprint appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: Leading Trainers By ROI

Second in a series helping horseplayers learn more about betting Hong Kong racing, by international wagering authority Dick Powell. Click here for the first installment on leading riders by ROI.

The 2021-2022 Hong Kong Jockey Club season began on September 5 and will continue with racing twice a week until July 16. Unlike the jockeys where the top two, Joao Moreira and Zac Purton, won 282 of the 835 races last season (34%), the two leading trainers, Caspar Fownes and John Size, won a combined 152 races (18%).

There are no “super” trainers in Hong Kong and the table below illustrates it. These are the leading trainers and their win percentages. Only five have even double-digit win percentages and the highest is John Size at 13.98%.

 

Trainer Wins Starters Win %
Caspar Fownes 79 640 12.34%
John Size 73 522 13.98%
Frankie Lor 65 574 11.32%
Francis Lui 61 576 10.59%
Danny Shum 57 499 11.42%
Tony Cruz 51 635 8.03%
Doug Whyte 41 517 7.93%
Me Tsui 37 559 6.62%
David Hall 36 404 8.91%
Dennis Yip 34 531 6.40%
Chris So 33 511 6.46%
Ricky Yiu 33 454 7.27%
Benno Yung 32 405 7.90%
David Hayes 32 422 7.58%
Jimmy Ting 31 449 6.90%
Tony Millard 30 386 7.77%
Manfred Man 30 487 6.16%
Paul O'Sullivan 26 377 6.90%
David Ferraris 17 376 4.52%
Richard Gibson 17 249 6.83%

 

Part of this is explainable by field size. The average field size of every race in Hong Kong is about 12. So, from a random point of view, each trainer has a 1 in 12 chance of  winning or 8.33%. If the field size is 8, like it is at many American tracks, there is a 1 in 8 chance of winning or 12.5%. Winning races in Hong Kong is much more difficult, even for the leading trainers.

Takeout on win betting in Hong Kong is 17.5% so an average win payoff of $1.65 exceeds the takeout. The following are the leading trainers from the 2020-2021 season and their ROI based on a $2 win bet:

 

Trainer Wins Starters Money Earned $2 Bet/Horse ROI
Caspar Fownes 79 640 $818.80 $1,280.00 $1.28
John Size 73 522 $953.20 $1,044.00 $1.83
Frankie Lor 65 574 $1,071.20 $1,148.00 $1.87
Francis Lui 61 576 $785.70 $1,152.00 $1.36
Danny Shum 57 499 $767.90 $998.00 $1.54
Tony Cruz 51 635 $735.20 $1,270.00 $1.16
Doug Whyte 41 517 $814.40 $1,034.00 $1.58
Me Tsui 37 559 $791.60 $1,118.00 $1.42
David Hall 36 404 $602.60 $808.00 $1.49
Dennis Yip 34 531 $781.90 $1,062.00 $1.47
Chris So 33 511 $733.20 $1,022.00 $1.43
Ricky Yiu 33 454 $580.80 $908.00 $1.28
Benno Yung 32 405 $830.00 $810.00 $2.05
David Hayes 32 422 $445.40 $844.00 $1.06
Jimmy Ting 31 449 $1,087.10 $898.00 $2.42
Tony Millard 30 386 $519.60 $772.00 $1.35
Manfred Man 30 487 $713.40 $974.00 $1.46
Paul O'Sullivan 26 377 $488.60 $754.00 $1.30
David Ferraris 17 376 $409.50 $752.00 $1.09
Richard Gibson 17 249 $488.20 $498.00 $1.96

 

This tells a dramatically different story as the leading trainers do not always equal pari-mutuel success. So which trainers provide the best value? Here are the trainers listed by their ROI:

 

Trainer Wins Starters Money Earned $2 Bet/Horse ROI
Jimmy Ting 31 449 $1,087.10 $898.00 $2.42
Benno Yung 32 405 $830.00 $810.00 $2.05
Richard Gibson 17 249 $488.20 $498.00 $1.96
Frankie Lor 65 574 $1,071.20 $1,148.00 $1.87
John Size 73 522 $953.20 $1,044.00 $1.83
Doug Whyte 41 517 $814.40 $1,034.00 $1.58
Danny Shum 57 499 $767.90 $998.00 $1.54
David Hall 36 404 $602.60 $808.00 $1.49
Dennis Yip 34 531 $781.90 $1,062.00 $1.47
Manfred Man 30 487 $713.40 $974.00 $1.46
Chris So 33 511 $733.20 $1,022.00 $1.43
Me Tsui 37 559 $791.60 $1,118.00 $1.42
Francis Lui 61 576 $785.70 $1,152.00 $1.36
Tony Millard 30 386 $519.60 $772.00 $1.35
Paul O'Sullivan 26 377 $488.60 $754.00 $1.30
Caspar Fownes 79 640 $818.80 $1,280.00 $1.28
Ricky Yiu 33 454 $580.80 $908.00 $1.28
Tony Cruz 51 635 $735.20 $1,270.00 $1.16
David Ferraris 17 376 $409.50 $752.00 $1.09
David Hayes 32 422 $445.40 $844.00 $1.06

 

Some words of caution:

Jimmy Ting's positive ROI is affected by a win that paid $359.30 but it is still a decent $1.62 without it.

Benno Yung's positive ROI is affected by a win that paid $151.90 but it is still a decent $1.67 without it.

Frankie Lor ($1.87) and John Size ($1.83) are the only leading trainers that are beating the takeout and a couple, Caspar Fownes ($1.28) and Tony Cruz ($1.16) are near the bottom. When making your selections, make sure you are getting a decent price.

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