PR Back Ring Kentucky Derby Preview / Keeneland April Sale: Who Is Bred For the Derby Distance?

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The latest issue of the PR Back Ring is now online, featuring a pedigree-focused preview of the Kentucky Derby, and analysis of the Keeneland April Horses Of Racing Age Sale.

The PR Back Ring is the Paulick Report's new bloodstock newsletter, released ahead of every major North American Thoroughbred auction. Seeking to expand beyond the usual pdf presentation, the Back Ring offers a dynamic experience for bloodstock content, heavy on visual elements and statistics to appeal to readers on all platforms, especially mobile devices.

Here is what's inside this issue…

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  • Lead Feature: Bloodstock editor Joe Nevills uses his award-winning Average Winning Distance analysis to determine which Kentucky Derby contenders have the best pedigree performance to handle a mile and a quarter – a distance none of the competitors have faced in competition.
  • Stallion Spotlight Presented By Kentucky Equine Research: Ryan Norton of Darby Dan Farm on Dialed In, the leading freshman sire of 2016, and sire of Kentucky Derby contender Super Stock.
  • The Stat Presented By Gainesway: Which sires mattered the most on this year's Kentucky Derby trail?
  • Ask Your Veterinarian Presented By Kentucky Performance Products: Dr. Scott Hopper of Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital describes the different methods of conducting lameness exams on horses, and what a veterinarian is looking for in the tests.
  • Speed Figure Watch: Top Beyer Speed Figures earned by horses entered in the Keeneland April Sale.

CLICK HERE TO READ THIS EDITION OF THE PR BACK RING

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Taking Stock: Breeders Robertson, Gonzalez Elevate Dialed In’s Profile

Somewhere on the grounds of OBS on Tuesday, the two unacquainted men who bred Dialed In's (Mineshaft) only two Grade l winners to date–Gl Kentucky Derby-bound Get Her Number and Super Stock–quite likely passed each other unaware of the other in that random way of the universe that plays with degrees of separation.

I assume this because I was on the phone with Phil Robertson, who co-bred Get Her Number with his wife Brenda, when Pedro “Pete” Gonzalez, the co-breeder of Super Stock with his grandson P.J. Gonzalez, phoned me. I was finishing up my call with Robertson, who was three hips away from selling a 2-year-old, and immediately returned the Gonzalez call when I hung up with Robertson.

The first thing I noticed when Gonzalez started speaking was a distinct background voice that had also been present in my call with Robertson. For all I know, they could have been standing within feet of each other when speaking to me about why they sent their respective mares to Darby Dan's Dialed In in 2017.

Of course, there was every reason to send a mare to Dialed In that spring because the stallion, who'd stood his first four seasons for $7,500, had dramatically defeated Lane's End's Union Rags (Dixie Union) for the champion freshman sire title on the last day of the year, in the very same race at that–the $100,000 Gin Talking S. at Laurel. Dialed In's Ms Locust Point won the race, earning $60,000, while Union Rags's daughter Aiden's Rag Doll finished fifth. The margin separating the two stallions had been only $35,194 before the race. It was a victory for David versus Goliath, because Union Rags had been syndicated for more than $12 million and stood for a $35,000 fee.

Breeders came in droves to Dialed In in 2017 despite the doubling of his fee to $15,000, and among the 231 mares bred to the stallion that year were Robertson's homebred Bernstein (Storm Cat) mare Fancier, the dam of Get Her Number, and Gonzalez's homebred Super Girlie, the daughter of Closing Argument (Successful Appeal) who produced Super Stock.

Robertson and Gonzalez are small breeders with a lot in common–the former owns 15 mares while the latter has seven–and both have small farms, Robertson's in Versailles, Gonzalez's in Ocala. Roberston is retired from the construction business and shuttles between his lake home in Granbury, Texas, and the Kentucky farm, while Gonzalez, who's also retired from the construction business, drives back and forth from his base in Miami to Ocala to check on his stock. Both men are passionate about breeding and are also exceedingly polite, and if they'd bumped into each other at OBS, I have no doubt that they'd have had a heck of a conversation about horses, construction, and the thrill of having bred a horse slated for the Derby, by the same stallion as it turns out.

Dialed In

With two potential Derby starters, Dialed In joins Into Mischief, the hottest and most expensive sire in the country at a fee of $225,000, as the only two stallions with multiple runners intended for the Classic at this writing. However, Dialed In's two colts are Grade l winners whereas Into Mischief's three–Mandaloun, Highly Motivated, and Soup and Sandwich–have only one Grade ll win amongst them in graded company.

This is a terrifically complimentary comparison for the Darby Dan horse, who started as the favorite in the 2011 Derby after winning the Gl Florida Derby, a fixture that's turning out to be the premier sire-making race in the country with such alumni as Nyquist (Uncle Mo), Constitution (Tapit), Quality Road (Elusive Quality), Scat Daddy (Johannesburg), Empire Maker (Unbridled), and Harlan's Holiday (Harlan) in the recent past.

Altogether, Dialed In won three of seven starts and earned $941,936. He'd been bred by the partnership of W.S. Farish, Madeleine Pickens (previously married to Allen Paulson), and Skara Glen Stables, and he was purchased for $475,000 as a yearling at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga by Robert LaPenta's Whitehorse Stable, which has a penchant for A.P. Indy-line horses. Dialed In is from the immediate family of Paulson's champion filly Eliza (his second dam) and Gl Santa Anita Derby winner Dinard, and he was trained by Nick Zito in a come-from-behind style that's frequently associated with the best of Zito runners. It's not, however, the preferred front-running style that's popular with breeders and stud farms, and after Dialed In's eighth-place finish in the Derby and only two more combined starts after that in 2011 and 2012, the horse was somewhat forgotten and wasn't among the most sought-after stallion prospects for 2013, allowing Doug Cauthen and Darby Dan's Robert Hammond to secure him for stud duty to stand at John Phillips's historic nursery at a fee of $7,500.

A good-looking stallion standing 16.1 hands with plenty of substance to him, Dialed In has since defied the odds, much like Into Mischief in his early years when his stud fee once touched $7,500 before his first-crop runners took off. Dialed In started off hot, too, getting multiple Grade ll winner and Grade l-placed Gunnevera, who's earned $5.5 million, and five other black-type winners from his first crop. By the time Robertson and Gonzalez had contracted to send their mares to the stallion In in the spring of 2017, Gunnevera was well on the Classics trail. He finished seventh in the Derby but subsequently showed he handled a mile and a quarter when placing in the Gl Travers S., the Breeders' Cup Classic, and the Dubai World Cup, a good sign for Get Her Number and Super Stock in the Derby.

Gunnevera is one of 15 black-type winners for his sire through five crops (not including 2-year-olds of 2021), and his accomplishments from two to five helped Dialed In win the freshman sire championship and see a bump in his fee from $15,000 in 2017 to $25,000 in 2018 and 2019. However, by 2020 the stallion was down to $20,000, and this year he's serving mares for $15,000, which illustrates the difficulties stallions face with their second, third, and fourth crops as mare books get watered down after the first year at stud. This is particularly acute for horses standing for cheaper fees. Note that to date Dialed In has only three black-type winners from his second crop and just one from his third crop.

During these lean years, Dialed In nevertheless showed he could get quality runners, even if they weren't black-type winners. For instance, the 4-year-old Finnick the Fierce placed in a Grade ll race at two and last year was third in the Gl Arkansas Derby, the same race that Super Stock won two weeks ago for Steve Asmussen with Get Her Number a fast-closing fourth. Last year, Get Her Number, trained by Peter Miller, won the Gl American Pharoah S. at Santa Anita, becoming his sire's first top-level winner.

Grade l Breeders

Phil and Brenda Robertson have raced some good horses, including graded winners Reigning Court and Savorthetime with Asmussen, and they've bred some others, such as Group 2 winner Sander Camillo, a Dixie Union filly they'd sold as a yearling for $160,000 in 2005 that later sold to Godolphin as a broodmare prospect for the equivalent of $6.9 million at Tattersalls in 2007.

Phil Robertson didn't want to sell Get Her Number, which he did last year with Ciaran Dunne's Wavertree at OBS April for $45,000 to trainer Peter Miller. “He was always a good-looking colt. The sale was postponed to June last year with Covid,” Roberston said, “and with Covid and how uncertain things were with the economy, I just figured it was the right thing to do financially.”

The colt's dam, Fancier, had been bred and raised by the Robertsons and was a winner of three races from 10 starts, but “she was a mare that was hard to get pregnant. She wouldn't cycle right.” Her second dam was the Group 1-placed Irish River (Fr) mare Shy Princess, a half-sister to Gl Breeders' Cup Mile winner Opening Verse, and though her extended family was deep, her immediate family was light and her foals catalogued with two “blank dams,” a commercial kiss of death. On the advice of his veterinarian, Robertson had sold her in foal to Astern for $1,300 at Keeneland November the year before her son won his Grade l race.

Robertson said he'd sent the mare to Dialed In because “she was a tall, lighter mare with a lot of leg, and he was shorter and stockier. He had more substance, and she needed that.”

Pete Gonzalez sent his homebred mare Super Girlie, the dam of Super Stock and a winner of seven races from 39 starts and $121,728, to Dialed In mainly for pedigree reasons. “My mare mixes well with A.P. Indy and Storm Cat, which is how Dialed In is bred, and he has Mr. Prospector in the pedigree, and she's got Mr. Prospector, and I wanted to inbreed to Mr. Prospector. I love speed, and with A.P. Indy there is distance, but I wanted to get more speed for distance.”

Gonzalez and his grandson also bred Super Stock's Gl-placed half-sister Boujie Girl (Flashback), who Peter Miller purchased from the OBS April sale for $65,000 three years ago. Earlier, in 2012, Miller had purchased the Gl La Brea S. winner Heir Kitty (Wildcat Heir) from OBS April for $32,000, and Heir Kitty was produced from a half-sister to Super Girlie and was also bred by Pete Gonzalez, in partnership with Jorge Herrera.

Gonzalez sold Super Stock as a yearling at Keeneland September through Taylor Made for $70,000 to Keith Asmussen and Erv Woolsey. “He was a really nice yearling. My farm manager in Ocala, Ivan Gardea, prepped him early, and then I sent the colt to Ramiro Salazar at Phoenix Farm in Midway to get him ready for the sale. We thought he'd bring more,” Gonzalez said.

Super Girlie, who is based at Salazar's Phoenix Farm, has a yearling by Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) and is in foal to Authentic (Into Mischief).

Gonzalez, a Cuban-American, has been breeding horses for 25 years and attributes his success to his wife, Georgelina. “I thank her for it all, and for always supporting me,” he said. “You know, when Super Stock won the Arkansas Derby, I became the first Cuban-American to breed the winner of that race. How do I know? I did the research.”

If Super Stock wins the Kentucky Derby, Gonzalez will have more research to do. If Get Her Number upsets the Classic, the Robertsons will get just compensation in historical prestige for culling his dam. And if either wins, Dialed In's profile will be elevated to a whole new level than the high plane it's on now, thanks to Robertson and Gonzalez.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

The post Taking Stock: Breeders Robertson, Gonzalez Elevate Dialed In’s Profile appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Bloodlines Presented By Mill Ridge Farm: ‘Stock’ Is Rising For Breeders’ Futurity Grads

Last year's Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland is looking more and more like a key race for the classics this year. The winner was last year's champion juvenile colt, Essential Quality (by Tapit), who is still unbeaten and is the solid favorite for the Kentucky Derby next month.

The second-place finisher in the Breeders' Futurity was Keepmeinmind (Laoban), who won the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs in his next start, although he has not found his best form so far this season.

Farther back in the Futurity were a pair of well regarded colts who have taken a step forward, however, and they specifically did so over the weekend. Of those, Super Stock was third in the Breeders' Futurity, and the bay son of Dialed In dimmed some classic dreams with a victory by 2 1/2 lengths in the G1 Arkansas Derby over the previously unbeaten Concert Tour (Street Sense) and the well-regarded Caddo River (Hard Spun).

The Arkansas Derby was the first graded stakes victory for Super Stock, who was bred in Kentucky by Pedro Gonzalez and P.J. Gonzalez and then sold at the 2019 Keeneland September yearling sale to Erv Woolsey and Keith Asmussen for $70,000.

That was a solid price for a yearling by the good young sire Dialed In (Mineshaft), who also sired classic prospect Gunnevera in his first crop. Likewise, Dialed In was a classic contender during his own 3-year-old season with victories in the G3 Holy Bull Stakes and the G1 Florida Derby.

Super Stock comes from his sire's fifth crop and is one of 15 stakes winners by the stallion, who stands at Darby Dan Farm for $15,000 live foal. Dialed In's other 3-year-olds include Papetu, who ran third in the G2 Fountain of Youth; Get Her Number, who was fourth in the Arkansas Derby; and Exogen, who was second in the Cicada at Aqueduct.

Super Stock is the fifth foal and fourth winner from his dam, the Closing Argument mare Super Girlie. She is also the dam of Boujie Girl (Flashback), who was third in the G1 Del Mar Debutante. Super Girlie was barren in 2019 and has a bay yearling colt by Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy).

Super Stock's broodmare sire, Closing Argument, was second in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, beaten a half-length by Giacomo. So there are classic elements in the pedigree, although the dominant classic contributor would appear to be the male line from Seattle Slew, A.P. Indy, and Mineshaft.

Coming to the Arkansas Derby, Super Stock was already G1-placed from his finish in the Breeders' Futurity, giving him significant form against the best of his crop, and if he maintained that level, he should have been a major force in the race, which proved to be the case.

That was not the status of another racer from the Breeders' Futurity who returned to competition in the G3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday. King Fury (Curlin) had been beaten into eighth place in the Breeders' Futurity after going wide on both turns, but the chestnut son of the 2007-2008 Horse of the Year had come back 22 days later and won the listed Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs over Super Stock.

Attempts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes had suggested that King Fury wasn't yet at his best, but the Lexington was the colt's seasonal debut and delivered results that have inclined trainer Kenny McPeek to favor a possible attempt at the Preakness Stakes in mid-May, which the colt's sire won in 2007.

Bred in Kentucky by the Heider Family Stables LLC, King Fury is the only foal out of G1 winner Taris (Flatter). Consigned to the Saratoga select yearling sale in 2019 through Hill 'n' Dale, King Fury brought $950,000 and races for Fern Circle Stables and Three Chimneys Farm.

Taris was bred in Kentucky by Claiborne Farm and Adele Dilschneider and then was sold for $90,000 at the 2012 Keeneland September yearling sale to Commonwealth New Era Racing. After winning the G2 Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland, Taris sold to Coolmore for $2.35 million at the 2014 Fasig-Tipton November sale. The next year, Taris won another graded stakes and was third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Filly Sprint. At five, she won the 2016 G1 Humana Distaff and later was sold privately to the Heider Family Stables. Taris was retired for breeding in 2017 and died after foaling King Fury in 2018.

With his victory in the Lexington, King Fury made a significant step toward fulfilling the high hopes held for a racer of his pedigree and excellent physical character.

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Super Stock ‘Fantastic’ Morning After ‘Better Than A Movie’ Arkansas Derby Victory

Super Stock emerged in “fantastic” shape from his victory in the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) Saturday at Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Ark., Steve Asmussen, the colt's Hall of Fame trainer, said Sunday morning.

Super Stock is scheduled to be flown early this week to Kentucky, Asmussen said, where the Dialed In colt will join the trainer's string at Churchill Downs to begin preparing for the Kentucky Derby May 1.

Super Stock ($26.40) gave Asmussen his record-tying fifth Arkansas Derby victory, capturing the 1 1/8-mile race by 2 ½ lengths under Ricardo Santana Jr. Caddo River finished second, a head in front of 1-5 favorite and previously unbeaten Concert Tour.

Super Stock figures to be one of the Kentucky Derby's feel-good stories since he was purchased and is co-owned by Asmussen's father, Keith, 79, and received his early schooling at the family's famed El Primero Training Center near Laredo, Texas.

Steve Asmussen's oldest son, also named Keith, rode Super Stock in his first three career starts last summer and provided the jockey with his first career stakes victory in the $113,647 Texas Thoroughbred Futurity Aug. 11 at Lone Star Park. Keith Asmussen, 22, is scheduled to graduate in May from the University of Texas with a bachelor's degree in business administration. He had 61 mounts last year when he made his riding debut during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although Steve Asmussen is on the cusp of becoming the winningest trainer in North American history, he has never won the Kentucky Derby in 21 starts.

“This horse is better than a movie, when you think about all of that,” Keith Asmussen said moments after his father's latest Arkansas Derby victory.

Super Stock's only previous victory came in the restricted Texas Thoroughbred Futurity, but the colt did run third, beaten 4 ¾ lengths by future Eclipse Award winner Essential Quality, in the $400,000 Breeders' Futurity Oct. 3 at Keeneland. Super Stock, in his 3-year-old debut, was a well-beaten fourth behind Concert Tour in the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) March 13 at Oaklawn. Super Stock breezed three times before the Arkansas Derby, including a five-furlong bullet (1:00.20) March 29.

“Going into the race, dad said this horse had been touting himself,” Keith Asmussen said. “I think it was the perfect description.”

Steve Asmussen, heading toward his record-tying 11th Oaklawn training title, called the race setup perfect for Super Stock, who sat just off Caddo River's demanding splits of :22.62 for the opening quarter-mile, :46.51 for a half-mile and 1:11.25 for three-quarters of a mile.

“Those kind of fractions will sort out a lot,” Asmussen said.

The final time over a fast track was 1:50.92. A $70,000 Keeneland September Yearling Sale graduate, Super Stock won for the second time in eight lifetime starts to increase his earnings to $804,762. He earned a preliminary Beyer Speed Figure of 92, a career high.

“He's improving a lot,” Santana said after riding Super Stock for the third time. “He's growing up. I'm really, really happy with that horse right now.”

Asmussen previously won the Arkansas Derby in 2002 (Private Emblem), 2007 (Curlin), 2016 (Creator) and last year's first division with Basin, who was elevated to first following the disqualification of Charlatan for a medication violation. The case is under appeal.

Clearly, Asmussen's fifth Arkansas Derby victory was different. It was a family affair. In addition to his father, mother, wife and three sons, Asmussen said his mother-in-law and two sisters-in-law were among those present to cheer the family horse.

“Can't even remember the last time we were all at the same race,” an emotional Asmussen said following his record 95th career Oaklawn stakes victory. “Meant to be.”

Super Stock collected 100 points for his Arkansas Derby victory and has 109 overall to rank third on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard compiled by Churchill Downs. The Arkansas Derby offered 170 points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10) toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby. The 1 ¼-mile race is limited to 20 starters, with starting preference given to the top 18 point earners in designated races like the Arkansas Derby. The top point earners on the European and Japan Road the Kentucky Derby will receive invitations.

Essential Quality, winner of Oaklawn's $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 27, has 140 points to rank No. 1. Concert Tour (70) is No. 9 and Caddo River (50) is No. 13.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said Concert Tour would be sent to Churchill Downs, but was non-committal about a start in the Kentucky Derby. Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a record-tying six times. Baffert said in a text message early Sunday afternoon that Concert Tour came out of the race well and will ship to Kentucky Monday or Tuesday.

“We'll see how he works back,” Baffert said immediately following the Arkansas Derby. “Churchill, I don't like to run there unless they're going to be really live. We'll see how he comes out of this race and see how he trains forward. I didn't really want a hard race out of it, but we still wanted to win. I've won Derbies off of losses. You learn about your horse and see if there is improvement to be made. The horse will tell us.”

Caddo River came out of the Arkansas Derby in “great shape,” Jorgito Abrego, who oversees trainer Brad Cox's Oaklawn division, said Sunday morning. Cox said immediately following the Arkansas Derby that he would consult with John Ed Anthony of Hot Springs, Caddo River's owner/breeder, before making a decision regarding the Kentucky Derby.

“Talk it over with Mr. John Ed and come up with a game plan here in the near future,” Cox said. “We'll ship him back to Churchill, one way or another, and either prepare for the Kentucky Derby, I assume he'll get in with (50 points), if we choose that path or possibly the Preakness. We'll talk to the boss and see what he thinks. More than anything, see how he comes out of it over the next couple of days.”

Cox also trains Essential Quality.

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