This Side Up: Still Amending the Derby Agenda

We should have known better. The moment we deceived ourselves that we had a crossroads of perfect symmetry, with four standout colts converging inexorably on the first Saturday in May, one promptly limped off the trail and then last weekend another was beaten at odds-on. Nobody, then, will be making any assumptions when the other two complete their GI Kentucky Derby preparations, Concert Tour (Street Sense) in the GI Arkansas Derby next week and Essential Quality (Tapit) as the geographical and narrative pivot of three rehearsals staged coast to coast Saturday.

That said, the juvenile champion gets a home game, round a circuit where he has already won two Grade Is. It will be on the margins of East and West, then, that we seem more likely to see a breakout after the manner of Known Agenda (Curlin) last week. Not that anyone in the Greatest Honour (Tapit) camp is too downbeat after he had to settle for third behind that old rival in the GI Florida Derby. I was heartened by the fidelity of colleague T.D. Thornton to Greatest Honour, who retained the No. 1 spot in his Derby Top 12 this week. Because these adolescent horses seldom crown a curve of relentless improvement under the Twin Spires: very often, they will need to have soaked up some adversity on the way, to have absorbed a tough lesson or two before regrouping. Greatest Honour has been on the punchbag all winter and was entitled to drop a glove this once, especially with such a messy trip. We know that his trainer will always have been working back from one date, and one date only.

With that date now looming so large, however, there's a kind of exquisite tension for all these horsemen, trying to achieve an equilibrium between their own restraint, and the fitness and seasoning of their charges. Remember that's exactly what they do every day, with horses at every level. It's just that the whole process is so much more visible here, because of the extremity of the test and the depth of the associated lore.

Many of us profess a sentimental attachment to the old school, with an emphasis on grounding, but modern trainers make their own rules. Obviously last year's race was an outlier, its postponement as ruinous to other horses as it was helpful to the raw Authentic (Into Mischief). But in 2018 we had a Triple Crown winner unraced before February 18; and the following year the first past the post had started off in midwinter under a $16,000 tag, and his works might have been as usefully clocked with a sundial as a stopwatch.

Medina Spirit has only been beaten by Life Is Good | Benoit

Bob Baffert's mastery of the definitive challenge of his calling now puts him within reach of a seventh Derby, and an outright record, even after losing the services of Life Is Good (Into Mischief). In that colt's lamentable absence from the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, we have a twist in the astonishing tale of Medina Spirit (Protonico), the $1,000 short yearling who somehow found his way into the most lavishly stocked barn in the land. But nothing should surprise us with the genius of his trainer. Remember that Medina Spirit, having been pinhooked to a giddy $35,000, was actually twice as expensive as Real Quiet (Quiet American)!

He would be unbeaten but for Life Is Good and he's been working the house down since a minor throat procedure. Baffert plus Medina Spirit is like Goliath teaming up with David, but this race does offer romantics the option of Rock Your World (Candy Ride {Arg}), bred by Hall of Famer Ron McAnally.

Undefeated Rock Your World switches to dirt | Benoit

You imagine John Sadler has not been short of humorous counsel on the backside, especially as the veteran McAnally, who nowadays supervises just with a handful of animals, managed a graded stakes placing for Rock Your World's older sister She's Our Charm during the winter. McAnally trained both the parents, namely Candy Ride (Arg) and dual Grade I-placed juvenile Charm the Maker (Empire Maker); and actually McAnally and wife Deborah bred the first three dams. But Sadler is certainly rewriting Derby rules with this colt, switching from turf after teaching him about dirt with some pretty heavy duty drills.

The last four runnings have been divided between Baffert and John Shirreffs, who intriguingly perseveres with Parnelli (Quality Road) as though he has more ability than we've been seeing of late. Recent works suggest that the blinkers are helping, much as they did Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) when Parnelli ran the GII Louisiana Derby winner to a neck in the fall.

Interesting to see a Californian shipper taking on Essential Quality, in Rombauer (Twirling Candy), though the most feasible GII Toyota Blue Grass S. wildcard is surely Known Agenda's raw but devastating barnmate Untreated (Nyquist). In the GII Wood Memorial (presented by Resorts World Casino), meanwhile, a similarly late play from Prevalance (Medaglia d'Oro) will help Godolphin decide whether he's progressing fast enough to join their champion in Louisville. If not, then they will hope that at least Risk Taking (Medaglia d'Oro) can go forward on behalf of their big stallion, who joins Tapit and Curlin in craving the Derby as a seal on all their other success.

A playful Weyburn last month at Belmont | Susie Raisher

Pioneerof the Nile beat those big hitters to that distinction before his premature loss, which would be felt all the more keenly if Weyburn were to emerge as a new Derby force from this race. I can definitely see that happening, the Chiefswood homebred being born for this second turn with first three dams by A.P. Indy, Sunday Silence and Nijinsky. The third dam, indeed, is Maplejinsky, dam of Sky Beauty (Blushing Groom {Fr})–so seeing the name Jerkens on the card gives us that warm glow, too. This is an April 21 foal, paradoxically just the kind of thing we like for the Derby, and I love the gutsy way this horse carried his speed through a demanding mile after a lay-off.

So forget that neat and orderly crossroads. On the day itself, we know it will be chaos out there; and the same applies to the four weeks in between. Some engines stalling, others suddenly roaring into life; lights turning red, lights turning green. And with horsemen like Jerkens, Shirreffs and Sadler trying to weave into the traffic, with all their skill and experience, for now it still feels like we don't even know which way round to hold the Derby map.

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Tapit Doubles Down on Twin Spires

He doesn't need the publicity: as he approaches the evening of his career, his fee is $185,000 and, with his book as wisely controlled as ever, demand should always exceed supply. Nonetheless, there's something highly gratifying about the prospect of Tapit redressing one of the few gaps in a resume that otherwise qualifies him as unmistakably the most accomplished stallion in the land.

The horse himself, of course, would remain totally unwitting–just as he was, when his 20th birthday last Saturday was so aptly marked by two sons emphatically confirming their status as rivals for leadership of the Classic crop. Should either Greatest Honour or Essential Quality proceed to crown their sire's career with his first success in the GI Kentucky Derby, the world will appear no different to Tapit as the second sunrise of May reaches those palatial rafters in the Gainesway stallion barn. But a sense of completion, on his behalf, would be greatly deserved by the people behind him.

Principal among these is Antony Beck, owner of Gainesway, who took an inspired gamble on the pedigree underpinning Tapit's extrovert performance in the GIII Laurel Futurity at two, despite a sophomore campaign that proved fragmented and unconvincing.

Beck understood that since you can never predict which genetic strands will come through in a horse, your best shot is always a breadth of quality sufficient for it not to matter too much. Tapit's family had already produced a series of stallions: dam Tap Your Heels (Unbridled) was a sibling to Rubiano (Fappiano); second dam Ruby Slippers (Nijinsky II), a half-sister to Glitterman; and third dam Moon Glitter (In Reality), a full-sister to Relaunch. Glitterman was by a stallion as forgettable as Dewan, so clearly something was functioning pretty potently along this bottom line.

Tapit's own sire Pulpit, moreover, was by the son of one broodmare of historic stature (Weekend Surprise) out of the daughter of another (Narrate); while his damsire Unbridled, for his part, doubles up the great Aspidistra (who delivered not only his third dam, but also Fappiano's damsire Dr. Fager). And Unbridled himself had a distinguished brother in Cahill Road. There was, in other words, repeat production everywhere you looked.

Unbridled had made a big impression on the young Beck, having the temerity to beat his father-in-law's champion sprinter Housebuster at seven furlongs after winning the marquee races over 10 (Derby/Breeders' Cup Classic) the previous year. And while soundness was never really part of the Unbridled brand, Tapit's next two dams were by sturdy influences in Nijinsky (also sire of Pulpit's third dam) and In Reality (who recurs as sire of Unbridled's second dam).

Sure enough, while Tapit often gets horses of high mettle, they tend to be credited with a compensatory robustness, founded in fluidity of action plus exceptional cardiovascular capacity. Together, these physical attributes sustain a conspicuous will to win in many a Tapit. No doubt other sires impart a lot of “try” to their stock, but few will support it with matching levels of “can.”

Mr. Prospector | Dell Hancock

The first thing many people will see in the emergence of Greatest Honour and Essential Quality is an extra knot of Mr. Prospector. Already pegged down top-and-bottom behind Tapit, as damsire of Pulpit and grandsire of Unbridled, Mr. Prospector puts a grandson behind the dams of both these colts: Essential Quality is out of an Elusive Quality mare, and Greatest Honour out of a daughter of Street Cry (Ire).

Essential Quality actually brings Mr. Prospector back in yet again, his third dam being by Fappiano (who duly doubles up his role as grandsire of Tap Your Heels). In fact, the champion juvenile has pretty eye-watering levels of inbreeding overall, with triple doses of Northern Dancer and Secretariat and, most notably, In Reality. We've already noted how Tap Your Heels is inbred to In Reality, and here he is again as sire of Essential Quality's fourth dam, GI Delaware H. winner Basie.

Greatest Honour has a far less tangled page, and one that will delight the purist with second and fourth dams both Broodmares of the Year, and a Kentucky Oaks winner in between. Presumably Mr. Adam's desk has long disappeared under offers for breeding rights in his flamboyant homebred. Because it sure helps if you can just look at a pedigree and say with a shrug: “Well, what else do you suppose a horse bred like this could be?”

Greatest Honour | Coglianese

For the seeding of this family has been consistent with its quality. And that, as we like to say, means that there isn't a single creaking floorboard on the stage. In terms of that breadth of genetic cover, you couldn't ask for two better representatives of the Mr. P. and Northern Dancer lines to shore up the excellence of the family. Damsire Street Cry brings a ton of European turf quality: his sister produced a great sire in Shamardal; their dam is an Irish Oaks-winning daughter of an Epsom Derby winner; and sire Machiavellian is out of the foundation Niarchos mare Coup de Folie (Halo).

Coup de Folie was inbred 3×3 to that ultimate linchpin, Almahmoud, but not through her breed-shaping grandson Northern Dancer: instead it falls to Greatest Honour's second dam, the famous Better Than Honour, to bring into play that specialist broodmare influence of the Northern Dancer line, Deputy Minister.

Better Than Honour, of course, produced consecutive winners of the Belmont S.–which Classic already bears a heavy imprint of Tapit, including now as a sire of sires following the success of Tiz the Law (Constitution). Tapit's three Belmont winners, in turn, strengthen the record of his grandsire A.P. Indy, who won the race himself and also sired one of Better Than Honour's winners, Rags to Riches.

There can only be one Kentucky Derby winner every year. Never mind that Tapit, despite combining two formidable Classic brands in A.P. Indy and Fappiano, has so far drawn a blank. His proven record with maturing sophomores round that punishing Belmont oval makes him an irreproachable complement to the families of both Greatest Honour and Essential Quality.

To their families, mark you; not merely to their dams' sire line. You can be sure that plenty of experts are busy discovering some priceless alchemy between Tapit and Mr. P., especially after a Distorted Humor mare gave us Constitution. But we'll leave such people to their simple lives; and happy lives, too, with the nice fees they get from their clients. The rest of us must persevere through the genetic treacle with no better a compass (assuming due attention is always given first to physical matching) than the overall balance and depth of quality in a pedigree.

It should go without saying that both these colts have a terribly rich seedbed for fertilisation.

Essential Quality's granddam is Contrive (Storm Cat) who, though unraced, cost Sheikh Mohammed $3 million as a 7-year-old in 2005–just 12 months after changing hands for $140,000. The difference, in the meantime, was made by her first foal Folklore (Tiznow), who had just sealed the divisional championship previously in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Essential Quality | Coady

Admittedly, the Sheikh's investment has taken time to pay dividends, Contrive mustering only a couple of foals equal to a Grade III placing. One of them is Delightful Quality, who started out with three duds: two unraced foals by Bernardini and Tiznow, and a castrated son of Tapit who finished 10th of 11 on his only start. Fortunately, the Sheikh's team had doubled down on his sire and sent Delightful Quality back to Gainesway in 2017 for the covering that produced Essential Quality.

Let's not forget that Contrive had cost $825,000 as a yearling. She was out of a dual graded stakes winner; second dam Basie, as already noted, was a Grade I winner; and the line extends back to La Troienne via War Admiral's daughter Striking, the 1965 Broodmare of the Year and a sister to Hall of Famer Busher. Mineshaft, Private Account and Woodman all share ancestry through Striking; while Smarty Jones does so via Basie's dam. Presumably it was the recent example of Smarty Jones, who had a slop-splattered Tapit back in midfield in his Derby, that governed the choice of Elusive Quality for Contrive when she came up with Delightful Quality.

One way or another, anyhow, this family is right now back in business. Even without Essential Quality, the outstanding Japanese sophomore of 2020, Contrail (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}), is out of Folklore's daughter Rhodochrosite (by Unbridled's Song); while the hardy millionaire Come Dancing (Malibu Moon) is a granddaughter of Contrive's half-sister by Kris S.

Striking and Busher, incidentally, respectively delivered one apiece of the four grandparents of My Charmer, the dam of Tapit's great-grandsire Seattle Slew. And their brother Mr. Busher happens to be the sire of Stolen Hour, fifth dam of Greatest Honour.

Stolen Hour's daughter Best in Show claims our attention here through her Kentucky Oaks-winning daughter by Blushing Groom (Fr), Blush With Pride, who in turn produced Better Than Honour. But this whole argument about breadth of genetic coverage applies pretty loudly to this dynasty.

Other daughters of Best in Show include Sex Appeal, who links the pedigrees of many good horses (latterly Almond Eye (Jpn) (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}) and is a particular nexus of fine or better broodmare sires: she's by one herself, in Buckpasser, and duly produced two others in El Gran Senor and Try My Best. Other daughters of Best in Show (these all by Sir Ivor) include Minnie Hauk, who gave the Niarchos family its foundation mare Aviance; plus the third dams of the important Australian stallion Redoute's Choice (Aus) and, more recently, Siskin (First Defence), a Classic winner in Ireland last year.

Tapit | Gainesway

Depth and breadth, and copper-bottomed broodmare influences. That's how these lines keep thriving. No family tree stands or falls on a single branch. But sure, if you think Greatest Honour and Essential Quality are all about Tapit nicking with Mr. Prospector-line mares, you work away.

Siskin, incidentally, is closely related to champion Close Hatches (First Defence), whose son Tacitus continues to exasperate in his failure to add to his sire's haul of Grade I winners. For now, then, Tapit must settle for 27, four more than nearest active competitor War Front. Tapit's 87 graded stakes winners, meanwhile, put him a street clear of Distorted Humor on 65. As a ratio of named foals, his black-type winners/performers are touching 10 and 20%, respectively; and he's basically producing a Grade I winner/six graded stakes performers from every 50. In terms of earnings per named foal, only Speightstown breaks six figures at $103,427; Tapit is rolling along at $115,491.

So, no, he doesn't need the publicity–even if he's no longer on a tariff quite as giddy as $300,000. But while it's always nice to celebrate stallions that only rarely make the headlines, nor should Tapit be taken for granted. He is a colossus of the modern breed and, the way these two boys are shaping, this looks like the year when he'll be reaching the very top of the heap.

For with lifetime earnings now $165.5 million, Tapit is fast closing down the late Giant's Causeway, who's naturally running low on ammunition on $171.2 million. Throw in any prize money meanwhile banked by other stock, not to mention a couple of valuable rehearsals en route, and it's perfectly possible that one of these star sophomores will take their sire to the pinnacle in the Derby itself. And if that's what destiny has in mind for Tapit, then perhaps Greatest Honour will turn out to have been named with particular prescience.

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This Side Up: Proxy Steps In to Try that Unique Fit

Derby dreams at this time of year can prove as ephemeral as the vapours rising into the glacial air of Hot Springs. But the owner of the champion juvenile knows perfectly well that plans, with Thoroughbreds, can only ever be provisional–and that the postponement of Monday's Oaklawn card is a relatively trivial inconvenience to Essential Quality (Tapit). To recall the graver vexations that can unravel a Derby colt, Sheikh Mohammed needs only rewind to the last cycle, and the last colt that offered to requite perhaps the greatest single ambition still animating the biggest bloodstock empire in the breed's history.

Anyone with a sophomore of elite potential knows the highwire that axiomatically permits every Thoroughbred foal one opportunity, and one only, to contest the Kentucky Derby. If, with the approach of his third summer, he is not fit and well on the first Saturday in May, then fortune will never indulge him with a second chance. There might yet be greatness, a Travers or a Breeders' Cup. But there will be no Derby.

In 2020, however, the unprecedented (and arguably unnecessary) disordering of the Classic calendar offered some horses a reprieve even as it destroyed the fortunes of others. Nadal (Blame) and Charlatan (Speightstown) showed their readiness for the appointed hour, when the same track that is frozen this weekend salvaged an appropriate Grade I for sophomores on Derby day. Both colts, however, were sidelined by the time Churchill eventually staged a September Derby. In contrast, Maxfield (Street Sense) had appeared to be thrown a lifeline after a layoff that would have made a normal Derby very tight, if not impossible–only to be derailed by another setback in the summer.

Happily, Maxfield made a seamless resumption before Christmas to nourish hope the patience of all involved can be vindicated, and his full potential finally explored, by an uninterrupted campaign at four. Fitting, then, that he should be resuming Saturday in the GIII Mineshaft S.–a race honoring the 2003 Horse of the Year, who built with maturity on foundations laid so carefully in his European nursery.

Maxfield | Horsephotos

Among horsemen, after all, hope springs eternal. And while Maxfield provides a cautionary context, Godolphin certainly has some exciting young colts. Besides Essential Quality, there's the eye-watering Gulfstream maiden winner Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro); while in yesterday's edition colleague Steve Sherack highlighted the prospects, down the line, of Speaker's Corner (Street Sense). Closer to hand, meanwhile, the deferral of the champion's reappearance switches attention to the aptly named Proxy (Tapit).

The GII Risen Star S. pitches this colt into a rematch with the pair who sandwiched him not only on the GIII Lecomte S. podium, but more or less from the moment the gate opened. That was not so much a horserace as a procession, all three basically holding their positions throughout as Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) controlled a light pace. Seemingly Proxy's rider was intent on engaging Mandaloun (Into Mischief) in the stretch, which possibly helped the leader to hold out. Be that as it may, Proxy gets Johnny V. this time while stretching out to serve a pedigree lavishly seeded by Classic influences. As yet another string to the Tapit bow, alongside Essential Quality and Greatest Honour, Proxy is getting a solid grounding to help add mental maturity (has shied under pressure) to the palpable progress he is making in physical terms.

'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun | Coady

It remains to be seen whether things can play out quite so conveniently for Midnight Bourbon this time, while Mandaloun must excel not to get caught wide again from gate 11. He certainly has the kind of family that is now supporting his sire, freshly gilded by Authentic, as a bona fide Classic stallion. Indeed, beyond the mare who became agent of its transfer to Juddmonte (bred first three dams), there's an unbroken Whitney line going back to 1918!

The big story bubbling under this race, of course, is Senor Buscador (Mineshaft). Joe Peacock, Jr.'s homebred looks an explosive talent and could put a smile on many faces at Remington Park, in the weeks leading up to May 1, if banking 50 Derby points here. He's a half-brother to Runaway Ghost (Ghostzapper), whose GIII Sunland Derby a couple of years ago remains the solitary graded stakes win among 1,158 overall for Todd Fincher. Veteran racetrackers everywhere would be thrilled to see Fincher consoled for the way Runaway Ghost had to leave the Churchill trail with injury.

Senor Buscador | Dustin Orona

It's not just Sheikh Mohammed, then, who knows how precarious a trek these horses are trying to make. So far as Godolphin is concerned, however, I hope it's right to perceive a wholesome shift in the way their Derby quest is viewed. Whether through its owner or the media, there was always something a little too politicized about winning the race “from the desert.” The Sheikh would still be deservedly gratified to realize that dream, but it would be no less a consummation of his unprecedented Turf career to get the job done from an American barn.

Thunder Snow (Ire) (Helmet {Aus}), himself a G2 UAE Derby winner, subsequently confirmed himself as eligible a Derby runner as Godolphin has found–yet his deranged antics on breaking were a bewildering reminder that nobody has ever cracked this challenge until that garland is over your horse's withers.

Proxy | Hodges Photography

Suffice to say, for now, that the Sheikh must be delighted with the work of his Stateside team. Maybe none of these horses will reach a sufficient peak to seize the hour on May 1, but right now nobody can know that. Godolphin, remember, have not even had a dozen Derby runners. People who talk of “failure” or “frustration” are forgetting the exorbitant ratios involved, just to get any colt out of the global crop into the Derby gate. They also need to remember that the more difficult this man finds a challenge, the more he enjoys it; and the more he will persevere.

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