Tag: Derby Top 12

The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 23

No, the world didn't tilt off its axis last Saturday. But there was a seismic shift within the Top 12 rankings. 'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good (Into Mischief) was declared off the GI Kentucky Derby trail with a left hind ankle chip, and two other highly rated contenders failed to fire in the GII Louisiana Derby. But new shooters have filled the vacuum–as always. The cadence quickens while the plot thickens inside the six-week mark to Derby 147.

1) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $351,940.
Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Holy Bull S.
Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

There was plenty of upheaval in the standings behind Greatest Honour over the weekend while the Top 12 kingpin enjoyed a drama-free final tune-up prior to Saturday's GI Curlin Florida Derby. This Tapit-sired Courtlandt Farms homebred is a powerful, long-striding stayer who isn't afraid to face adversity square-on. After starting his career by closing admirably at shorter distances in deep New York MSW races, Greatest Honour dialed in to a winning groove at Gulfstream, pulling off the rare feat of closing to win from well off the tailgate in three straight 1 1/16-mile races (over a short-stretch configuration that tilts the advantage to speedsters). During that streak, Greatest Honour overcame dealing with a loose horse in his allowance win, uncoiled with a devastating stretch kick despite not being fully focused in the GIII Holy Bull S., then re-rallied in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (FOY) after getting clipped by a rival and losing momentum on the far turn. Trainer Shug McGaughey has been quietly confident this bay is a “longer-the-better” type of sophomore attempting to follow the same FOY/Florida Derby/Louisville path that McGaughey's only previous Kentucky Derby winner, Orb (Malibu Moon), took while winning all three of those races in 2013. The two main knocks against Greatest Honour are 1) his comparatively low Beyer Speed Figures (career best of 89, twice); and 2) his come-from-behind running style, which can be a hindrance in a 20-horse race like the Derby where closers are at the mercy of traffic.

2) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,785,144.
Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40.

Tapit-sired 'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality is Blue Grass bound, and the selection of that Toyota-sponsored Grade II Keeneland stakes was the most logical among the next-race options that were being considered for this Godolphin homebred. This athletic gray with a streak of aggression earned his juvenile championship over that surface when winning the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. and the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile there last autumn; as of this writing, no other Top 12 contenders are committed to that race. Essential Quality holds more than a few Derby aces at this stage of the season: he scores highly in terms of tactical prowess, has posted top-notch speed numbers that keep arcing upward; he's won in the slop and has won at Churchill. Now that Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow), the 94-1 runner-up in the Juvenile, has broken through with a win in the Louisiana Derby (see below), I can no longer keep carping that Essential Quality didn't beat many horses of consequence in the Breeders' Cup (the second, third, and fifth horses have now all won stakes). But it's imperative to respect history, and the fact remains that only two of 36 Juvenile winners (5.5%) have gone on to win the Derby. Even if you widen that metric to include all the 1-2-3 finishers in the entire history of the Juvenile, the Breeders' Cup still rates as a very poor prognosticator of Derby success, with only four Derby winners emerging from those 108 in-the-money Juvenile finishers (3.7%).

3) CONCERT TOUR (c, Street Sense–Purse Strings, by Tapit)
O/B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $756,600.
Last Start: 1st GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 6
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50.

'TDN Rising Star' Concert Tour burst into the Top 12 after his 4 1/4-length thrashing of the GII Rebel S. field at Oaklawn Mar. 13. This Street Sense homebred for Gary and Mary West torqued out a convincing score thanks to deft piloting by jockey Joel Rosario. Concert Tour broke running and forced rail-drawn favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River (Hard Spun) to concede both the fence and the lead. Concert Tour maintained a margin of a length down the backstretch, then edged away under his own power while a clearly flustered Caddo River was fully driven and eventually cracked. No other closers were in it to win it, and this colt ran up the score while looking strong doing so. Based on the visually impressive nature of the victory, I thought Caddo River's 94 Beyer might have clocked in higher (it matched his last-out GII San Vicente S. win). But the effort was just the third-fastest of four 1 1/16 miles races at Oaklawn that afternoon, slower than two stakes and only 0.19 seconds faster than an allowance (all for older horses). Something to think about down the line: Rosario might have to choose between Concert Tour and Hot Rod Charlie, the other new shooter ranked right behind him at No. 4.

4) HOT ROD CHARLIE (c, Oxbow–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
O-Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing LLC & William Strauss; B-Edward A Cox (KY); T-Doug O'Neill. Sales history: $17,000 Ylg '19 FTKFEB; $110,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-1-2, $1,005,700.
Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6; 3rd GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110.

What do you get when you breed the dam of 2019 sprint champ Mitole to the wire-to-wire winner of the 2013 GI Preakness S.? The answer is Hot Rod Charlie, a determined son of Oxbow who solidified his status as a Top 12 contender with a 99-Beyer win in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. For everyone who thought his 94-1 near-miss in the Breeders' Cup was a fluke (that would include me), Saturday's gritty win should serve notice that this two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) reliably scores higher in tenacity than many of his peers at this point in the Triple Crown chase. Hot Rod Charlie broke running, and when jockey Joel Rosario sensed no other rivals were eager to assume command, he forged to the front with stalker Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) applying pressure from the outside. Five-sixteenths from the wire, Midnight Bourbon appeared primed to pounce but could not wrest away the lead, and Hot Rod Charlie kept outkicking him under judicious handling by Rosario (guiding home his nation-leading 11th graded stakes winner of 2021). “Working with him in the morning, he relaxes and you don't have to get him in the race,” Rosario said. “He handled the distance very well. Very impressive. With [Midnight Bourbon] coming on his outside, he really fought back. He doesn't have to be on the lead. He can do anything. He can be a little bit off the pace and will run the same way.”

5) SPIELBERG (c, Union Rags–Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC, & Robert Masterson. B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,000,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 8-2-3-1, $413,200.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27.
Accomplishments: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity,
2nd GI Runhappy Del Mar Futurity, 3rd GI American Pharoah S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 17.

Spielberg will go next in the Florida Derby, and that's an unusual move for trainer Bob Baffert. Despite being loaded with talented 3-year-olds every season and often having to shop for non-conflicting stakes to keep them apart, this Grade I prep never seems to be on Baffert's radar screen. In fact, Baffert has only started horses at Gulfstream on four occasions over the last four years, and each was in the GI Pegasus World Cup (two wins, a second, and a seventh). Spielberg, a $1-million KEESEP colt, is by Union Rags, who was a narrowly beaten third at 2-5 odds in the 2012 Florida Derby. Union Rags then ran seventh in the Kentucky Derby, skipped the Preakness, but won the GI Belmont S. by edging out the Baffert-trained Paynter (Awesome Again) by a neck. “He's a great-feeling horse,” Baffert said of Spielberg, who has eight starts worth of experience, but is currently parked at 16th on the qualifying list with 17 points. “He came out of [the GIII Southwest S.] in great shape,” Baffert added, explaining that Spielberg still needs to work on some gate issues. An awkward start in the slop at Oaklawn left this chestnut with far too much work to do, yet he still closed with purpose to get second behind juvenile champ Essential Quality.

6) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-2-0, $196,092. Last Start: 5th GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Caddo River looked uncomfortable every step of the trip en route to a subpar fifth at 6-5 odds in the GII Rebel S., but the result was so aberrational that he deserves reconsideration in the GI Arkansas Derby. This 'TDN Rising Star' will need to rebound big-time in that final Kentucky Derby prep because right now he's on the outside looking in, ranked 24th with only 10 qualifying points. Caddo River didn't seize the lead from his inside post and jockey Florent Geroux opted to concede the pacemaking to Concert Tour, which would have been fine except that this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable was rank and refused to settle. By the time Geroux finally let him go, Concert Tour had momentum and confidence while Caddo River boiled over as a result of self-inflicted duress three-sixteenths from the wire. Trainer Brad Cox said Caddo River emerged from that meltdown none the worse for wear; in the best-case scenario the colt perhaps got a decent schooling out of it. But it's now an open question as to whether Caddo River can round into a multi-dimensional threat, because the only two races he's won have been the ones in which he led at every call.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-2-3, $461,420.
Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13; 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 3rd
GI Champagne S., 2nd GIII Iroquois S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 66.

Midnight Bourbon ran hard and ran well when second in Saturday's Louisiana Derby, but his challenges were stoutly repulsed by convincing victor Hot Rod Charlie. Ranked second in qualifying points with 66, this $525,000 KEESEP colt by Tiznow has earned his way into a Derby starting spot, and he will bring some upside to Louisville that could make him an intriguing wiseguy play at odds in the 20-1 range. He is the only 3-year-old in the nation to have run three 93 or better Beyer figures since January (96 in each of his last two efforts), and you can't quibble with his stamina-centric foundation of seven races at a mile or longer. Where the argument in favor of Midnight Bourbon starts to erode, though, is when you consider that he hasn't truly evolved into a horse who can seal the deal under pressure in the stretch. His GIII Lecomte S. score was aided by being able to control a moderate tempo, and he twice had the lead between calls in the GII Risen Star S. but couldn't parlay that optimal positioning into a win.

8) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB}) O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $104,600.
Last Start: 1st GP allowance, Feb. 26.
Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 2.

By late March, you're hoping that your Derby contender already has his “learning curve” races behind him, and if that's the case for Known Agenda in the Florida Derby, look out. Discount this colt's third-place try (beaten nine lengths) in the sloppy GII Remsen S. and overlook his twilight-zone Tampa fifth in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. (double-digit lengths off the pace for the first time) and what do you see? How about a Curlin colt who beat No. 1 kingpin Greatest Honour in a New York MSW back in November and was later an 11-length Gulfstream winner Feb. 26 over the same track and distance as Saturday's Florida Derby? Now things could get interesting for this Todd Pletcher-trained $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG, who just celebrated his third birthday Mar. 22. The blinkers that Known Agenda added for last month's allowance-optional claiming blowout will stay, but the Lasix this colt got for the first time in that much-improved race won't be allowed in the Florida Derby because of new phase-out drug rules being implemented in Triple Crown prep races this spring.

 9) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $52,800.
Last Start: 1st Allowance/Opt. Clm., GP, Mar. 11
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence was the easiest kind of winner at 1-10 odds when gliding home under light encouragement in a Mar. 11 allowance-optional claimer over a one-turn mile at Gulfstream. This Godolphin homebred broke fluidly, conceded the lead while pressing the pace, engaged the leader on the far turn, then took over at the quarter pole and had no anxious moments in the stretch. From a progression standpoint the effort should serve as a useful tightener for a looming stakes engagement. Prevalence had spiked a fever and missed some February training, so he's on the prowl for qualifying points in order to earn a berth in Louisville. But questions remain as to whether the timing is right for a run for the roses: Prevalence may be 2-for-2, but he's yet to attempt two turns and will need to come off Lasix in order to face stakes company. It's also worth noting that he ran a slower Beyer number against winners than he did in his debut, regressing from an 87 to an 83.

 10) HELIUM (c, 3, Ironicus–Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch) O-D J Stable LLC; B-Teneri Farm Inc &
Bernardo Alvarez Calderon (KY); T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $55,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $287,763.
Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM,
Mar. 6. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 1st Display S., WO, Oct. 18.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50.

Helium's connections are forging an unconventional route to Louisville that won't include another prep race. That will leave an eight-week gap between this colt's 84-Beyer victory at 15-1 odds in the GII Tampa Bay Derby and the first Saturday in May. Jon Green, the manager of DJ Stable, told TDN the plan will be to train this $55,000 FTKOCT (and subsequently privately purchased) first-crop Ironicus colt at Palm Meadows, then ship to Churchill three weeks out from the Derby. “Is it perfect? It's not perfect. Are there risks? Yes. But we feel what's best for the horse is to give him the time and slowly peak him into the Kentucky Derby,” Green said. He added that the riding assignment for the 3-for-3 colt has yet to be decided (Tampa-based Jose Ferrer was Helium's most recent jockey while Emma-Jayne Wilson rode in the two Woodbine victories). “Jose did a great job on him,” said Green. But, “for the same reason riding Jose at Tampa Bay made sense, you have to have somebody who has the experience in big races and the experience at Churchill Downs. That's no disrespect to Jose, but I would think we would need to explore other opportunities.”

 11) RISK TAKING (c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor) O-Klaravich Stables Inc; B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-0-0, $182,530
Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 6.
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Risk Taking was beaten nearly 10 lengths in each of his first two career tries, but his pedigree (by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Distorted Humor mare) suggested that neither six furlongs on the dirt nor yielding turf at 1 1/16 miles were going to be his sweet spot anyway. This $240,000 KEESEP bay woke up at 5-1 odds when tasked with nine furlongs on the main track at Aqueduct, then followed that win with another smart 1 1/8 mile-score in the GIII Withers S. That victory earned an 89 Beyer, and Risk Taking caught the eye by cruising along comfortably in stalk mode before quickening when cued to reel in a tiring pacemaker. He'll go two months between starts when attempting the GII Wood Memorial S. to decide if he's Derby-bound, but trying to get a read on this colt by scrutinizing his company lines doesn't yield much insight: nine rivals out of his two Aqueduct wins have now come back to make subsequent starts, and they've collectively managed only two next-out victories.

12) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-2-0, $165,200.
Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Sham S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

Every Top 12 list should include at least one Cinderella-type horse, and this Protonico colt who hammered for relatively short money ($1,000 at OBSWIN and  $35,000 OBSOPN) is it. This Bob Baffert-trained overachiever owns two wins and also twice ran second behind now-injured Life Is Good, and he's been a very capable workmate in the mornings for some of the better-bred and more expensive sophomores in Baffert's deep stable. Baffert earlier this year likened Medina Spirit to his 1997 Derby winner Silver Charm, who was similarly not an overly expensive OBS-sold colt ($16,500 OBSAUG yearling, $100,000 OBSAPR). Baffert also expressed a belief that this colt is more effective pressing the pace rather than setting it, so look for that strategy in the Apr. 3 GI Santa Anita Derby.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Collaborate (Into Mischief): This $600,000 FTSAUG 'TDN Rising Star' just turned three Mar. 22 and will aim to cap his birthday week with an upset in Saturday's Florida Derby. A geared-down 12 1/2-length MSW blowout win going a one-turn mile Feb. 27 (90 Beyer) signals this tall, athletic, fluid mover could make the jump in class.

Defunded (Dialed In): Here's your Santa Anita Derby sleeper. Impressive, easy win (83 Beyer) in MSW sprint right after the GI Santa Anita Derby; with stablemate Life Is Good out, he could get tossed into the deep end of the pool by Baffert.

Hidden Stash (Constitution): Only one gaining in the stretch of two Tampa stakes; mildly intriguing for a potential wake-up if he goes in the Blue Grass and gets a hot pace to chase.

Mandaloun (Into Mischief): Trainer Cox said “We couldn't come up with any reasons for the dull performance” after this 'TDN Rising Star' was a beaten-fave no-show in the Louisiana Derby. “Right now I'll probably nominate him to the [Apr. 10 GIII Stonestreet] Lexington [S. at Keeneland] and we'll see. He was done at the half-mile pole, so I don't think the distance was the reason. He ran out of horse fairly quickly.”

Roman Centurian (Empire Maker): Second in three-way photo in GIII Lewis; 'TDN Rising Star' listed last week as “probable” for Wood Memorial.

Rombauer (Twirling Candy): Last-to-first winner of the El Camino Real Derby was initially aiming for the Wood in New York, but defection of Life Is Good means he'll now stay in SoCal to contest Santa Anita Derby.

Triple Tap (Tapit): 'TDN Rising Star' and half-bro to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah owns an eye-catching MSW score sprinting. Baffert said post-race that he didn't want to rush this colt, but now that soph star Life Is Good is out of Derby consideration, this potential phenom  might advance on the depth chart.

Weyburn (Pioneerof the Nile): It's not often that you see a 46-1 shot earn a 95 Beyer against stakes company like this colt did in the one-turn-mile GII Gotham S. A stretch-out to nine furlongs in the Wood will test his mettle.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 23 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 9

This week's edition represents the most movement within the Top 12 all season. But brace yourself: the nine-furlong preps are next, and so are the juicier qualifying points opportunities. The GI Kentucky Derby forecast is for continued–but intriguing–volatility.

1) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $351,940.
Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Holy Bull S.
Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

If Greatest Honour continues on his path to prominence, one of the more intriguing storylines of Derby 147 will be how Courtlandt Farms privately bought dam Tiffany's Honour in foal to Tapit after she RNA'd for $2.3 million in at Fasig-Tipton November in 2015. The foal she delivered was a striking individual, but the tale took a tragic twist when that colt was later killed in a paddock accident. Tiffany's Honour had already been bred back to War Front, but the following year Courtlandt mated her with Tapit again. The result is Greatest Honour, and you can read in a more detailed TDN column by colleague Chris McGrath how even as a yearling, Greatest Honour resonated as “the 'whole package'–a big, leggy, scopey, rangy horse; correct, well-made, good bone, everything.” Greatest Honour competed in a trio of “loaded” New York MSW races, then punched through to the elite level with a trio of emphatic victories (two of them stakes) at Gulfstream. All of those wins were at 1 1/16 miles, which trainer Shug McGuaghey has described as too short for this distance-centric deep closer. Yes, you can argue that Greatest Honour hasn't posted any elite-level Beyer Speed Figures to legitimize the visually impressive nature of his wins. That could be a concern moving forward, as no fewer than 27 performances by 3-year-olds on dirt so far in 2021 have earned Beyers above Greatest Honour's career-best 89. But it won't stop this powerhouse colt from going off legitimately favored in the GI Florida Derby.

2) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC; B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $274,200.
Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

Front-running phenom Life Is Good has now paired two daunting triple-digit Beyers (101 and 107). But the most astounding number associated with this 'TDN Rising Star' is the 2-1 favoritism he earned in Sunday's Pool 4 of the Derby Future Wager. This marked only the fourth time in 19 years that the pari-mutuel field of “All Other 3-Year-Olds” did not close as the March chalk. Saturday's win in the GII San Felipe S. was nothing short of scintillating. This $525,000 KEESEP purchase colt broke alertly from the rail, then bounded confidently onto the backstretch while intent on his work, but not keyed up about it. He maintained a three-length cushion through robust splits (:46.83 and 1:10.55), and when the closest three competitors all came under drives three-eighths out, jockey Mike Smith kept his mount in hand yet still managed to increase the gap. Life Is Good got momentarily distracted sailing solo through the stretch while drifting out (Smith said it was the video board) but won comfortably by eight lengths without ever having to give his all. Baffert acknowledged post-race his colt is “still green,” but quickly reminded that so, too, was 2020 Derby champ Authentic at this time last year. I'm still not quite ready to drape a blanket of roses around Life Is Good's broad, bay shoulders, though. He's raced just three times (twice against only four overmatched rivals), and none of the horses he's trounced is currently ranked as Top 12 contenders.

3) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,785,144.
Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40.

Tapit-sired 'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality seamlessly bridged the gap between his juvenile championship season and his first start age three with one of those athletic, high-cruising, multiple-geared performances that have evolved as his hallmark over a 4-for-4 career. This Godolphin homebred colt's 4 1/4-length GIII Southwest S. score showed that racing in the slop is not a problem, and “EQ” has already won once (albeit sprinting) over the Churchill surface, which is another plus on his Derby progression checklist. He matches well with jockey Luis Saez, who very calmly executed an important lesson in patient rating when EQ was into the bit and initially wanted to pull about five furlongs out in the Southwest. Having said all of that, one box that remains unchecked is how EQ will fare once he gets his first taste of serious in-race adversity. In all three of his stakes wins, EQ's athleticism and tactical prowess have enabled Saez to pick outside positions well clear of potential trip trouble. And in no races has EQ had to deal with multiple waves of top-caliber closers. The four horses who chased him home for second and third in his two Grade I wins last autumn were 94-1, 52-1, 30-1 and 10-1, and none is a Top 12 contender.

4) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River will start favored in Saturday's GII Rebel S. based on his ability to quickly reach a high cruising speed and sustain it under pressure while never seeming to get anxious about it. Probables listed by Oaklawn suggest a likely field of eight, and the main competition for this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable figures to be Concert Tour (Street Sense), a fellow 'Rising Star' trained by Bob Baffert (who has won the Rebel seven times in its previous 12 runnings), and Keepmeinmind (Laoban), the deep-closing 80-Beyer victor of the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill. Trainer Brad Cox told Horse Racing Nation last week that among his three Derby candidates–No. 3 Essential Quality and No. 5 Mandaloun (Into Mischief) are the others–Caddo River is “probably the fastest of the three, just based off how they breeze.” Cox added that despite that breakaway nature, “Caddo River is definitely the most laid back of the three.” Caddo River's company line from his blowout win in the Jan. 22 Smarty Jones S. upticked slightly on Saturday when fourth-place Moonlite Strike (Liam's Map), came back to run third at 34-1 in the GII Tampa Bay Derby.

5) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-1, $351,252.
Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 3rd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 52.

'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun's past performance cut alone is impressive enough to merit inclusion among the A-list sophomores. He's 3-for-4 with Beyers that have ascended in every race, and his only loss was a third-place try, beaten only a length, in his stakes and two-turn debut. But as the 4-to-5 fave in that GIII Lecomte S. loss, this Into Mischief homebred for Juddmonte couldn't seal the deal in an unfocused effort. Even after Mandaloun rebounded with a blinkers-on GII Risen Star S. win, jockey Florent Geroux said, “He's never given me his full potential.” Mandaloun will hit his third birthdate two days before his next expected start in the Mar. 20 GII Louisiana Derby, so maybe he's not that far off from stepping it up, maturity-wise. With 52 points, he's currently third on the qualifying list to start in Louisville, so it's not imperative that he produce an over-the-top effort in his final Kentucky Derby prep. Right now it might be best to consider Mandaloun the highest-ranked “work in progress” horse within the Top 12–with the expectation that his production needs to catch up to his potential within the next 7 1/2 weeks.

6) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-2-3-0, $187,700.
Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 24.

Proxy has never been worse than second in five lifetime outs, but you have to go back to a Dec. 19 N2L allowance win at Fair Grounds to find the performance that indicates how this colt is capable of controlling a race. Backed to 7-10 favoritism in a four-horse field, Proxy brushed the gate, confidently assumed command, conceded the lead between calls, then re-rallied to fight off a two-pronged stretch attack. Trainer Mike Stidham has been working this Tapit homebred in blinkers in preparation for the Louisiana Derby, with an eye on improving upon two runner-up efforts in which Proxy didn't always seem fully engaged. This colt's older sister, Micheline (Bernardini), another Godolphin homebred trained by Stidham, just won her first graded race on Saturday in the GII Hillsborough S. at Tampa. She had started her career 1-for-4, but after Stidham added blinkers late in her 2-year-old season, Micheline blossomed into a much-improved 4-for-9 streak, with three of those wins in grass stakes, plus a near-miss second against Grade I company at Keeneland. If the addition of blinkers has the same effect on little bro Proxy, look out.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-1-3, $261,420.
Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13.
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 3rd GI Champagne S., 2nd GIII Iroquois S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 26.

Midnight Bourbon resurfaces within the Top 12 after getting leap-frogged the last several weeks. The more I look at him, the more I now agree with trainer Steve Asmussen that he could be setting up nicely for a rebound race. When this $525,000 KEESEP colt wired the Lecomte S., he set a moderate, unchallenged pace and won with plenty in the tank, earning a Beyer that subsequently got revised upward from a 91 to a 93. When third next out in the Risen Star S., Midnight Bourbon twice led between calls (midway on the far turn and again at the eighth pole), then galloped out longer and stronger than the top two finishers. The imposingly long 1,346-foot stretch at Fair Grounds is often thought of as an advantage to closers. Yet the last three Louisiana Derbies have been won by speed-centric horses, including a wire job in last year's renewal, which was the first at the race's newly elongated distance of 1 3/16 miles. A son of Tiznow just now getting tight in his third start off the layoff for a trainer who has won this race three times? Sounds like a mild upset in the making.

8) SPIELBERG (c, Union Rags–Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC, & Robert Masterson. B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,000,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 8-2-3-1, $413,200.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Accomplishments: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity,
2nd GI Runhappy Del Mar Futurity, 3rd GI American Pharoah S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 17.

With eight starts under his belt, Spielberg is not your typical million-dollar yearling (KEESEP) that trainer Bob Baffert might nudge along the Derby trail with only a handful of well-spaced starts. After running second and third as a maiden against Grade I stakes company last September (favored in one of those races), this Union Rags colt is being given every opportunity to prove he belongs as a late bloomer at age three. His two wins were in a Del Mar MSW at a mile by a neck (in which the jock lost the whip) and in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity by a nose (when Spielberg was all out to reel in a 33-1 maiden). But the best race on his resume is his most recent effort, a second-place try in the Southwest S. behind champ Essential Quality. Racing in the slop for the first time, Spielberg was unprepared and ducked out at the break, then ran along well late to earn a credible second (despite no real chance to catch the winner because of how far behind he put himself at the start). Considering his sire won the 1 1/2-mile GI Belmont S., longer distances could be his launch pad.

9) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB}) O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $104,600.
Last Start: 1st GP allowance, Feb. 26.
Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 2.

This son of Curlin has the distinction of beating the current No. 1 kingpin on this list in an Aqueduct MSW back in November. But while Greatest Honour then went on a three-race win tear to vault him into the No. 1 spot, Known Agenda stalled for two starts before righting himself with a rip-roaring 11-length, blinkers-on win in a nine-furlong allowance-optional claimer at Gulfstream Feb. 26. Perhaps this $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG didn't care for the sealed and sloppy track when he got bumped off stride at the start of the GII Remsen S., and his 3-2 favored loss when fifth in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. might just be a case of not liking the sandy (and often quirky) Tampa track. But this chestnut attacked with metronomic precision after stalking a three-way duel in his Gulfstream comeback, unleashing a confident far-turn move before pouring it on in deep stretch. With two wins already at 1 1/8 miles, trainer Todd Pletcher is now considering the Florida Derby. But in addition to blinkers, Known Agenda also got a dose of Lasix for the first time in that allowance win, and he'll have to forego that medication in the Florida Derby as per new phase-out rules that now prohibit Lasix in the nation's top stakes.

10) HELIUM (c, 3, Ironicus–Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch O-D J Stable LLC; B-Teneri Farm Inc & Bernardo Alvarez Calderon (KY);
T-Mark Casse. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $287,763. Sales history: $55,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT.
Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 6.
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Accomplishments: 1st Display S., WO, Oct. 18.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50.

Not everything has gone as planned in trainer Mark Casse's preparations for Helium. Yet now this $55,000 FTKOCT (and subsequently privately purchased) first-crop colt by Ironicus is 3-for-3 after a 15-1 win in Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby (84 Beyer). After starting his career at Woodbine, a planned November stakes race there got cancelled. Casse then shipped Helium to Fair Grounds to try the Derby preps there, but Casse told DRF.com last week that the colt wrenched an ankle, so he sent him to his farm in Ocala. As Helium progressed, the Tampa Derby looked convenient from both a timing and close-to-home perspective. And now, for the fourth year in a row, that stakes has been won by a long shot. Helium was four wide while unhurried into the club turn, stalked midpack about six paths off the rail down the backstretch, then emerged from a far-turn logjam to get first run on a caving pacemaker. He had enough left to fight back when hooked in deep stretch by a fresh closer who had outside momentum, and deftly repulsed that bid. Although Helium is not currently a Triple Crown nominee, D J Stable racing manager Jon Green told TDN right after the win that this colt will be supplemented for $6,000 by the March deadline.

11) RISK TAKING (c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor) O-Klaravich Stables Inc; B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 6.
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Risk Taking, who just celebrated his third birthdate Mar. 7,  is the only Top 12 horse currently wintering in New York. This $240,000 KEESEP Medaglia d'Oro colt also stands out as the rare Derby contender (along with Known Agenda) to boast two wins already at nine furlongs—a crucial distance that many Derby aspirants have yet to even attempt. His 89-Beyer Withers win was the result of a comfortable midpack stalking trip followed by a powerful move to collar a fading leader, and it gave the impression of more in the tank. Trainer Chad Brown has indicated he'll opt for two months between starts and aim for the GII Wood Memorial S. so he can keep Risk Taking at the distance and track over which the colt is 2-for-2.

12) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight, GP, Jan. 23
Next Start: Allowance/optional claimer, GP, Mar. 11.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence will see action in Thursday's eighth race at Gulfstream, an allowance-optional claimer at a one-turn mile. He's a touch under the gun timing-wise after missing some February training because of a brief fever, but the plan for this Godolphin homebred still leaves room for a required start in a qualifying points stakes prep to try and garner entry into the Derby. This son of Medaglia d'Oro soared home by 8 1/2 lengths his Jan. 23 debut. That seven-furlong MSW appeared very deep on paper at the time, but six horses have now run back out of that race and only one was a next-out winner.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Concert Tour (Street Sense): This 2-for-2 Gary and Mary West homebred and 'TDN Rising Star' is on trainer Baffert's traveling team, shipping to Oaklawn for Saturday's Rebel S.

Hidden Stash (Constitution): One-run closer is a bit farther off the Derby radar than most, but this colt was the only one gaining in the stretch of the Davis, then mounted the only serious stretch challenge in the Tampa Derby after running off in the pre-race warmups.

Keepmeinmind (Laoban): Prepping for the Rebel S., jockey David Cohen said this late-running colt's most recent work featured a “nice, long gallop out, with nothing too rapid. I was very happy with the way he broke off. He has a tendency to get real tough. He did it really relaxed.”

Medina Spirit (Protonico): Baffert-trained overachiever, who hammered for just $1,000 at OBSWIN and $35,000 at OBSOPN, was second behind stablemate Life Is Good on Saturday but is clearly not in the same league. “He's a good horse and we needed to run first or second to continue on” with Derby preps, Baffert said, adding that the Santa Anita Derby of GI Arkansas Derby are possibilities.

Weyburn (Pioneerof the Nile): This 46-1 upsetter of the one-turn-mile GII Gotham S. racked up a big-league 95 Beyer. He's not Triple Crown nominated, but trainer Jimmy Jerkens said he will likely be supplemented for $6,000. No next-race commitment yet.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 9 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The TDN Derby Top 12 for Mar. 2

   We're now past the unofficial “Justify cutoff” of Feb. 18, which represents the latest maiden-breaking date of any GI Kentucky Derby winner. That means it's extremely likely we've already seen the 2021 winner in action, but it doesn't necessarily mean the Derby winner is ranked within this edition of the Top 12. This list represents the top of the crop while leaving speculation open to longshot Derby dreamers inside the 10-week mark to the first Saturday in May.

1) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $351,940.
Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Holy Bull S.
Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27

Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

March opens with a new kingpin atop the sophomore totem pole. Greatest Honour edged out fellow Tapit-sired Essential Quality based on the visually arresting nature of his GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth score, which left the impression this long-striding colt has the potential to be scary-good at Classic distances. After losing all momentum on the far turn when his back end clipped with an outside horse, this Courtlandt Farms homebred uncorked a devastating late run despite a 1 1/16-mile configuration at Gulfstream that does not favor off-the-tailgate tactics. Greatest Honour also got pelted with kickback while pinned down on the rail for most of the race, yet finished up with authority even though he was a good five lengths behind with a furlong left.

“He didn't get anything perfect [trip-wise] and he came back and won,” trainer Shug McGaughey said Sunday, underscoring the GI Curlin Florida Derby is next. “He was doing something he didn't want to do–to run 1 1/16 miles over this racetrack with the short pole. I'm just glad I don't have to do that anymore…. Now we have longer races in front of us.”

There are some “con” points about Greatest Honour's “pro” performance that merit consideration: The pacemaker he reeled in was definitely tiring, and no one else was truly firing. And the 89 Beyer Speed Figure he earned was the same as in his last win a month ago, so no uptick there. Plus, it's always dangerous to fall in love with a closer for the Derby, because large-framed horses who make one sustained run from the back frequently need to get lucky trip-wise in a bulky 20-horse field.

2) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,785,144.
Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40.

After being delayed two weeks because of adverse weather, the 3-year-old debut of the undefeated juvenile champ ended up being worth the wait. This Tapit-sired 'TDN Rising Star' continues to march forward on the progression arc, and his 4 1/4-length GIII Southwest S. smackdown in the Oaklawn slop showcased the high-caliber stalking skills this homebred for Godolphin flashed last autumn en route to a GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile victory. When second favorite Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music) slowed down the half-mile split to :48.11, it was apparent that favored “EQ” would have to earn his win. The into-the-bit champ wanted to pull down the backstretch, but jockey Luis Saez instead schooled EQ to edge forward incrementally. You could tell this colt was “getting it” by how EQ attained and released each target before zeroing in on the distance-challenged pacemaker. He then swatted away a fresh stretch challenge in the form of late-striding Spielberg (Union Rags). Still, EQ is going to have to overcome one daunting historical obstacle: The forebodingly low 2-for-36 strike rate of Juvenile winners in the Derby. And while EQ earned a 96 Beyer for his Southwest win, that's only a one-point progression off his best 2-year-old race. In fact, 10 horses have now run back out of the Juvenile, and EQ is the only one of the top nine finishers to (barely) post an improved next-out Beyer. With the exception of the 12th- and 13th-place finishers, everyone else he beat back in November regressed, numbers-wise, signaling that race's field might not be as strong as it first seemed. The GII Toyota Blue Grass S. and the GI Arkansas Derby are next-start considerations.

3) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Usually you hear about horses traveling to Oaklawn to avoid nasty winter weather and not the other way around, but 'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River is the exception. With divisions at multiple tracks, trainer Brad Cox had the flexibility to ship this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable from Hot Springs to New Orleans Feb. 11 to avoid the freeze that cost Oaklawn 11 days of training. Cox said Sunday this front-running force will remain at Fair Grounds to train up to the Mar. 13 GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn, a race in which he figures to go off favored (with no other Top 12 contenders committed as of this writing). The ability to nimbly reach a high-cruising speed and withstand legit pace pressure are this colt's twin strengths. But Cox indicated Sunday he's already thinking a bit further ahead in terms of how many Derby qualifying points this 2-for-4 winner (by a combined 19 1/2 lengths) might need to be certain of a spot in the field.

“Caddo River's the one that's going to have to step up in a points race and pick off some points,” Cox said.

Right now he's ranked 18th with 10 points; the Rebel offers 85 (50-20-10-5).

4) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Next Start: GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good will be heavily favored to win Saturday's GII San Felipe S. (entries Wednesday), a race that has reliably produced at least one Kentucky Derby starter from each of its last 12 runnings and in an ultra-impressive 31 of the last 32. During that time, eight San Felipe participants went on to win the Derby (Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Fusaichi Pegasus, Giacomo, California Chrome and Authentic), and nine others ran second or third in Louisville.

This $525,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay has flaunted nothing but “1s” in the past performances of his two wire-to-wire lifetime wins, and the 101 Beyer Speed Figure this 'TDN Rising Star' earned in the Jan. 2 GIII Sham S. remains the only triple-digit number posted by a 3-year-old to this point in the season.

Life is Good worked six furlongs handily Sunday at Santa Anita in 1:12.20 (1/3).

“He went well,” trainer Bob Baffert said after the drill. “I'm happy. We're all set.”

5) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-1, $351,252.
Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 3rd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 52.

Mandaloun's Beyer Speed Figure leapt forward to a 98 with the addition of a one-inch blinker cup when winning the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds (initially that represented a nine-point jump, but his GIII Lecomte S. Beyer has since been readjusted upward from an 89 to a 91).

Trainer Brad Cox is now aiming this Into Mischief-sired Juddmonte homebred for the GII Louisiana Derby, and if Mandaloun retains his newfound focus, he looms as a legit favorite. He was into the bit early and three wide on both bends in the Risen Star, then went on the prowl 7/16ths out and held sway in a prolonged stretch drive that featured a four-horse fight. This 'TDN Rising Star' needed assertive handling in the late stages of his races at age two, but part of the maturing process on the Derby trail involves teaching A-level colts to fire before all-out urging is required to finish the task.

6) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-2-3-0, $187,700.
Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 24.

In this space one month ago, Proxy was flagged as the type of colt who doesn't jump out at you as an obvious top-tier contender. Even after his running-in-spots second-place try in the Risen Star, I stand by that assessment. Because based on his breeding (by Tapit out of an Include mare) and his patient connections (homebred by Godolphin and trained by Michael Stidham), Proxy has all the makings of a horse who quietly accrues qualifying points without an exclamation-point race, but then suddenly looks like a “live” wiseguy play as he rounds into peak form during Derby week.

Stidham said after the Risen Star he'd be experimenting with blinkers, and in Proxy's first work back since his last race, he bullet-breezed a half mile Friday at Fair Grounds in :47.00 (1/40).

Check out the surface versatility in Proxy's immediate pedigree: In 2007, his dam, Panty Raid, won the GI American Oaks Invitational S. at 10 furlongs on the turf, the GI Spinster S. at nine furlongs on a synthetic track, and the GII Black-Eyed Susan S. at nine furlongs on dirt.

7) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $105,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Sham S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

Overachiever Medina Spirit, a Protonico colt who sold for $1,000 at OBSWIN and $35,000 OBSOPN, was greenlighted to start in Saturday's San Felipe S. by trainer Bob Baffert. And the big news (unless you're jockey Abel Cedillo, who did an admirable job with this colt for his first three races) is that John Velazquez has committed to the mount after partnering with Baffert and Authentic to win the 2020 Derby.

Medina Spirit initially outworked more expensive and better-bred horses when he first arrived at the Baffert barn, and even though highly ranked Life Is Good bested him as expected in several morning moves, Medina Spirit was not disgraced, and even rallied to finish just three-quarters of a length behind that 1-5 favored stablemate in the GIII Sham S.

Medina Sprit rebounded off that try to win a length-of-stretch brawl in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. after taking heat on the front end and prevailing by a neck in a three-way photo, prompting Baffert to quip “That reminded me a little bit of Silver Charm,” Baffert's 1997 Derby winner who similarly was not an overly expensive OBS-sold colt ($16,500 OBSAUG yearling, $100,000 OBSAPR).

8) CANDY MAN ROCKET (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Kenny Lane, by Forestry)
O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc; B-R S Evans (KY). T-Bill Mott. Sales History: $190,000 RNA wlg '18 KEENOV; $70,000 RNA yrl '19 KEESEP; $250,000 2yo '20 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $144,824.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 6
Next Start: GII Tampa Bay Derby, Tam, Mar. 6
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Candy Man Rocket will headline the GII Tampa Bay Derby for trainer Bill Mott based on the colt's 85-Beyer win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. Feb. 6. This three-time auction entrant–RNA'd for $190,000 (KEENOV) and $70,000 (KEESEP) prior to hammering for $250,000 (OBSAPR)–breezed a bullet half mile at Payson Park Sunday in :48.60 (1/36).

“He was on his own, he went well and I'm very pleased with him. He looked as smooth as silk,” Mott said. “He is a good work horse anyway, but I liked the way he did it. The [Tampa Bay Derby] has been on our minds since he won the Sam F. Davis. Any time you get a horse that runs well over that racetrack, you have to give it consideration.”

But an affinity for Tampa's sandy, banked-turn surface does not always translate to success in Louisville. In the 40-year history of the track's signature race, the only horse to parlay the Tampa/Kentucky Derby double was Street Sense in 2007; Super Saver, third in 2010, was the only other Tampa Bay Derby starter to win the Kentucky Derby.

9) SPIELBERG (c, Union Rags–Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC, & Robert Masterson. B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,000,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 8-2-3-1, $413,200.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Accomplishments: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity, 2nd GI Runhappy Del Mar Futurity, 3rd GI American Pharoah S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 17.

Spielberg's second at 7-1 behind champ Essential Quality in the GIII Southwest S. was a decent enough effort to give him some momentum and confidence going into the nine-furlong territory of the Derby trail. This $1-million KEESEP colt by Union Rags was unprepared and ducked out at the break, then got nudged four wide on the clubhouse bend while relegated to last.

“I put him in the race [and] just followed the winner every step. When I asked him, he went, but the winner was already being asked. I think my horse will be better at 1 1/8 miles,” said jockey Martin Garcia.

Spielberg had been an enigma prior to the Southwest, alternating wins and fourth-place finishes since Nov. 1. His long drive won the GII Los Alamitos Futurity by a nose, but he was all out to reel in a tiring 33-1 maiden. He subsequently finished 11 lengths behind the stretch-battling trio that photo'd for the win in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Still, this colt now has eight races of experience under his girth and stands a shot at moving up on Baffert's depth chart depending on how the barn's three other Top 12-ranked contenders fare in this Saturday's stakes.

10) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight, GP, Jan. 23
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Prevalence missed some February training after spiking a fever, but was back on the work tab Saturday, breezing a half-mile in :48.40 at Palm Meadows (5/73). This Medaglia d'Oro-sired 'TDN Rising Star' won his Jan. 23 Gulfstream debut by 8 1/2 geared-down lengths after sparring through a five-way fight for the lead in a “loaded” seven-furlong MSW, but he's now a touch under the gun in terms of Derby preparedness after missing his shot at either an allowance race or a start in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S.

This Godolphin homebred will also have to come off of Lasix if he is to enter a Derby-qualifying stakes after racing on it in his 89-Beyer debut. How have Derby aspirants coming off of Lasix fared so far in 2021 under the new system prohibiting that drug's use in points-eligible sophomore stakes? Through 13 prep races since Jan. 1, horses giving up Lasix after using it in their most recent start are a collective 3-for-30 (with three other runners finishing second).

11) FREEDOM FIGHTER (c, Violence–Canadian Ballet, by City Zip)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC, and Robert Masterson. B-Mr & Mrs Troy Reed (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $120,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $73,000.
Last Start: 2nd GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 6
Next Start: GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

The final two horses within the Top 12 share similarities in that neither has raced beyond one turn and both will meet in Saturday's GIII Gotham S. Mar. 6 at Aqueduct, which is another one-turn affair (mile). This Violence colt out of a City Zip mare ($120,000 KEESEP), really caught the eye when running a better race than winning 2-5 stablemate and 'TDN Rising Star' Concert Tour (Street Sense) in the GII San Vicente S. He blitzed out of the gate, withstood early pressure, then wouldn't quit in the stretch run of his first race since a debut win Aug. 1 at Del Mar. Separated by half a length, the top two both earned 94  Beyers.

Over the past five years, trainer Bob Baffert has sent five shippers to Aqueduct, compiling a 1-2-1 record.

12) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 wlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

A track-record-setting and key-race winner when last seen on the Breeders' Cup undercard at Keeneland, this $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt will vie with Freedom Fighter for favoritism in Saturday's GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct.

Klaravich Stable bred Highly Motivated after racing his dam (likewise trained by Chad Brown), the seven-furlong black-type stakes winner Strong Incentive. But this colt ended up going through the auction ring because Klaravich was buying out a partner who co-owned the weanling.

Authentic's powerhouse wins in the Derby and GI Breeders' Cup Classic last season shored up questions about the ability for Into Mischief's progeny to carry aggressive speed up to 10 furlongs. But this colt's dam-sire, Warrior's Reward, made his mark as a sprinter, registering his lone stakes win at seven furlongs in the 2010 GI Carter H.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Concert Tour (Street Sense): 'TDN Rising Star' will ship to Oaklawn to contest the GII Rebel S., a race that his trainer, Bob Baffert, has won seven times in the previous 12 runnings (including split divisions in 2019). But prior to Nadal's win in 2020, Baffert had saddled the beaten fave in four straight runnings.

Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music): After starting his career 4-for-4 with commanding displays of speed in one-turn races, this colt has now tasted defeat in two route tries despite advantageous trips in both. He slowed down the pace on the front end of Saturday's GIII Southwest S., but called it a day by the quarter pole, relegating him outside the Top 12.

Keepmeinmind (Laoban): After going back and forth several times over which February prep race to enter, this colt's connections eventually decided to skip races at both Oaklawn and Fair Grounds and instead wait for the GII Rebel S. This deep closer (formerly ranked No. 12) won the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. with a tepid 80 Beyer, but he'd probably enjoy a tactical advantage if a speed duel percolates on the front end of the Rebel.

Known Agenda (Curlin): Big rebound race on Friday, winning by 11 lengths in a nine-furlong allowance-optional claimer at Gulfstream after a blah fifth in the Feb. 6 GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa. Trainer Todd Pletcher now says the Florida Derby is “definitely in play.”

Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow): Could be the GII Louisiana Derby sleeper. His winning Beyer in the Lecomte S. has subsequently been revised upward from 91 to 93. And did you notice that he galloped out longer and stronger than everyone else after battling to hold third in the Risen Star?

Risk Taking (Medaglia d'Oro): Trainer Chad Brown has a colt who's already won twice over nine furlongs at Aqueduct and remains stabled in New York. He sees no reason to mess with that formula, so this $250,000 KEESEP grad will aim for the 1 1/8-miles Apr. 3 GII Wood Memorial S.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for Mar. 2 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The TDN Derby Top 12 for February 2

The Nos. 1, 2 and 3 candidates atop this week's GI Kentucky Derby rankings are fascinating from a tactical standpoint. In order, their styles are that of a relentless stalker, a high-cruising speed specialist, and a dominant, off-the-pace tailgater. But the contenders ranked behind them are poised to pounce as we edge past the 90-day mark until the first Saturday in May.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality can now add “2-year-old champ” to his 3-for-3 resume after winning Thursday's Eclipse Awards vote. But there was also big news last week about plans for this Godolphin homebred's 2021 debut, which trainer Brad Cox said will be the GIII Southwest S. Feb. 15 at Oaklawn (the GII Risen Star S. Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds had been the secondary option). The decision came down to a distance preference (1 1/16 miles for the Southwest versus half a furlong farther in the Risen Star), which is entirely logical for this Tapit colt's first race back since the winning the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. This athletic gray was a versatile stalker at age two, and looked well within his element employing intimidating pace-pressing tactics. Although “EQ” has twice won at 1 1/16 miles, both of those Grade I victories came over Keeneland's short-stretch configuration, where races at that distance end at the sixteenth pole. How have Eclipse champs fared in the Derby? In the 21st Century, Street Sense, American Pharoah and Nyquist all managed that double. There were no Eclipse/Derby winners in the 1980s or '90s. But in the '70s that feat was quite common, and the honor roll includes some legendary names: Spectacular Bid, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Foolish Pleasure, Secretariat and Riva Ridge.

2) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13 or GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River is still basking in the afterglow of his tour-de-force, 10 1/4-length blowout in the opening-day Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn. A homebred for Arkansas lumberman John Ed Anthony's Shortleaf Stable, trainer Brad Cox has confirmed that this colt will remain on the Hot Springs prep path. But considering how Cox is a proponent of spacing races, it seems likely that Caddo River might bypass the upcoming Southwest S. (which has already drawn commitments from the Nos. 1 and 5 contenders on this list) in favor of using the Mar. 13 GII Rebel S. and Apr. 10 GI Arkansas Derby as his launch pad to Louisville. This Hard Spun colt's past-performance lines got a nice lift Saturday when Greatest Honour (Tapit) won the GIII Holy Bull S., because Greatest Honour had twice finished third in “loaded” New York MSW races in which Caddo River ran second. Although speed is Caddo River's main weapon, he's not so much a blast-out-of-the-gate presence as a colt who breaks fluidly then rapidly attains a high cruising speed and stays there, which is the type of speed that can be better leveraged into excelling over 10 furlongs.

3) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-1-2, $175,240.
Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
Next Start: GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27 or GI Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Greatest Honour, a Courtlandt Farms homebred by Tapit, makes a leapfrog debut onto the Top 12 this week after unleashing a bold, sustained Holy Bull S. run that was as impressive in watching him build it up as it was in seeing him uncoil that devastating kick in the stretch knowing he was “just playing around,” as jockey Jose Ortiz quipped post-race. “I was really, really happy going to the five-eighths,” said Ortiz. “Luckily, I didn't have to fight for any position. I was just able to take it. Honestly, when I put myself four wide in the clear, I showed him the whip one time and from that point I knew I was going to have a really, really good shot to win. When we got to the quarter pole, I knew I had it.” Greatest Honour earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure, and trainer Shug McGaughey said in the winner's circle this colt will prep for the Derby in at least one other Gulfstream stakes. Asked if the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (FOY) was a possibility, McGaughey said it was before quickly adding, “But I think we need to wait a little bit. I mean, he's not going to be a hard horse for me to have ready for the [Mar 27] GI Florida Derby. And a mile and an eighth is going to suit him even better than a mile and a sixteenth” in the FOY.

4) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Next Start: Possible for GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good, a $525,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay, is the top gun among California-based horses. But like many Bob Baffert phenoms who dominate short-field Santa Anita stakes as prohibitive favorites, it can be difficult to gauge just how talented these sophomores actually are. This past Saturday, we got a little help in judging where Life Is Good stands from a company-line perspective. Fellow Baffert trainee Medina Spirit (Protonico), who finished three-quarters of a length behind Life Is Good in the Jan. 2 GIII Sham S. (and 13 lengths ahead of everyone else), won a three-horse photo to tenaciously snag the GIII Lewis S. But bettors who participated in Pool 2 of the Derby Future Wager the previous weekend needed no such convincer: They made Life Is Good the 7-1 second choice behind the “field” option. What is perplexing about the Future Wager odds though, is that Life Is Good actually closed at a lower price (5-1) back in November's Pool 1 when he only had a highly hyped maiden win on his record. So anyone who waited for Life Is Good to win a stakes race and edge two months closer to the Derby got rewarded with the better price despite the proposition looking much stronger. It's supposed to work the other way around, but future-bet markets are rife with inefficiencies.

5) JACKIE'S WARRIOR (c, Maclean's Music–Unicorn Girl, by A.P. Five Hundred)
O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $95,000 ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.
Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 12.

Now that Essential Quality's connections have committed to the Southwest S., the highly anticipated grudge match between the two Breeders' Cup Juvenile favorites is on for Feb. 15, representing the first true clash of the year between “headline” horses on the Derby trail. The first time they met, then-undefeated Jackie's Warrior was bet down to 9-10 odds and got first run into a sacrificial speed duel after enjoying an in-the-clear stalking trip. Still-undefeated “EQ” was the 7-2 second choice in the Breeders' Cup, and he was content to drop a dozen lengths off the action and build gradual momentum that didn't crest until a sixteenth of a mile from the wire, catapulting him to victory while “Jackie” was fourth, beaten 3 1/4 lengths. Purely from a next-race perspective, this $95,000 KEESEP Maclean's Music colt is likely to hold the upper hand based on his wicked turn of foot and the tendency for speed-oriented horses to do well at Oaklawn. But until Jackie actually wins a two-turn race (he was 4-for-4 at age two, winning at five, six, seven and eight furlongs), the jury is still out as to whether or not a 10-furlong Derby is within his scope.

6) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight, GP, Jan. 23
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Prevalence is one of three Godolphin homebreds currently ranked within the Top 12. This Medaglia d'Oro-sired 'TDN Rising Star' is the only one based in Florida though, so it would seem that the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. could be his next start. That would work out to five weeks between races and keep him geographically separated from Godolphin's other two top sophs, Essential Quality and Proxy (Tapit), who appear bound for the Southwest S. and Risen Star S., respectively. The 89-Beyer MSW debut for Prevalence on the Pegasus undercard a week and a half ago at Gulfstream still resonates as a “Wow!” effort, both for how this colt won it (by 8 1/2 geared-down lengths after dominating a five-way fight for the lead) and the well-intended colts whom he beat (Justify's half-brother and a $1.05-million KEESEP buy).

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-1-2, $221,420.
Last Start: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Accomplishments: 3rd GI Champagne S., 2nd GIII Iroquois S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 16.

Trainer Steve Asmussen indicated after Midnight Bourbon's 91-Beyer wiring of the GII Lecomte S. that win that he'd like to keep this $525,000 KEESEP colt in New Orleans to try and sweep the Risen Star S. and GII Louisiana Derby en route to a berth in Louisville. Those were the same races that Midnight Bourbon's half-brother, Girvin, won for different connections in 2017 prior to a trip-troubled 13th in the Kentucky Derby. Although Girvin benefitted from weak renewals of those Fair Grounds stakes, he did mature into a level-headed sophomore who could handle multiple levels of in-race pressure, which is something that Midnight Bourbon still must prove, because his Lecomte score had an “everything his own way” flavor to it. Three horses have swept the Lecomte, Risen Star, and Louisiana Derby: International Star in 2015 was the most recent, but he did not did not start in the Kentucky Derby. Friesan Fire swept the series in 2009 prior to running 18th in the Derby. Dixieland Heat won all three New Orleans races in 1993, and then (underscoring that he raced in a very different era) additionally ran third in the GII Blue Grass S. prior to finishing 12th in the Derby.

8) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-2-2-0, $107,700.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 4.

Proxy isn't one of those colts whose past performances leap out at you as a top-tier Derby candidate, but he does have the look and feel of the type of contender capable of quietly rounding into form and sneaking up on everybody by the first Saturday in May. He got first run at a loose leader in the Lecomte S., and while he did not win, this Tapit homebred for Godolphin prevailed in the “race within the race” for second. Proxy's previous two Fair Grounds victories were on the lead, so he's no longer so one-dimensional, tactics-wise, and he'll bring four races of two-turn experience into the Risen Star S. if his connections opt for that spot. Proxy's pedigree has a versatile, distance-centric slant: In 2007, his dam, Panty Raid, won the GI American Oaks Invitational S. at 10 furlongs on the turf, the GI Spinster S. at nine furlongs on a synthetic track, and the GII Black-Eyed Susan S. at nine furlongs on dirt.

9) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 wlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Highly Motivated breezed a half mile in :49:20 (9/35) Saturday at Payson Park, one day after trainer Chad Brown disclosed the colt's 2021 debut will be in the GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar. 6. This $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt needed patient handling after emerging “a little stiff” from his Nov. 6 track-record-setting Nyquist S. score, Brown told DRF.com. “I gave him a little extra time, and that put me behind a little bit,” he said. “I approached him like I have some of these other horses that I have, in that I don't want to run him too much before the Derby because if they're not good enough I want to have the rest of the year.” Highly Motivated has yet to race beyond 6 1/2 furlongs, so the one-turn-mile is a natural progression. But if he runs well enough to remain under consideration for a two-prep path to Louisville, that means Highly Motivated will go into the Derby with (most likely) only one two-turn race under his belt. The betting public let Highly Motivated drift to 24-1 in last week's Pool 2 of the Derby Future Wager after an 18-1 opening back in November.

10) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $105,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Sham S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

Medina Spirit's 91-Beyer GIII Lewis S. score on Saturday rates as one of the grittiest winning runs on the Derby trail this season. Seizing the lead from the rail, he took heat on the front end in a three-way go while drilling splits of :22.89 and :46.61, looked like he might be cooked at the quarter pole when two fresh closers barreled at him from off the pace, then dug in and never once relinquished the lead in a stretch battle that had him a neck in front in a three-way photo. “That reminded me a little bit of [1997 Derby winner] Silver Charm,” trainer Bob Baffert said post-race. “He had every reason to give it up late down the stretch [when] those horses came to him; I thought he was beat. I thought they were going to get by and he wouldn't let them by. He fought on. He really is not as tired as I thought he would be. He got caught up in the speed duel. We were afraid about the one hole and I was hoping he could just back off a little bit … He's going to get a lot out of this race, but I think you have to take him pretty seriously now.”

11) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-2-0-1, $111,252.
Last Start: 3rd GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 2.

Trainer Brad Cox said last week that he was going to equip 'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun with blinkers for a Saturday half-mile work that clocked in :48.20 (2/99), and that this 2-for-3 colt would wear them when he next starts in the Risen Star S. on Feb. 13. The beaten 4-5 fave when three wide around both turns behind a tepid pace in the Lecomte S., this Juddmonte homebred by Into Mischief now has to scramble a bit to regain Derby relevance. Speaking on “At the Races with Steve Byk,” Cox said that coming back on four weeks of rest with an elite-level sophomore is “something I'm not wild about, but at the end of the day, when a 3-year-old is on the Derby trail, you've got to push him along a little more.” Mandaloun displayed good fighting instincts when crashing through heavy traffic to break his maiden, and ranged up threateningly after stalking the leaders in his allowance score. But he had to be ridden with vigor in both of those races to uncork his best rally, and his subpar third in the Lecomte lacked a similar display of self-confidence. Perhaps the blinkers will offer a different perspective.

12) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban–Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.
Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity,
3rd GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 18.

This Laoban bay will celebrate his Feb. 8 foaling birthdate prior to his next start in the Southwest S. at Oaklawn. As a maiden, Keepmeinmind ran second and third behind No. 1-ranked Essential Quality in to Grade I stakes, beaten only 5 ¼ combined lengths. He then went off favored in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., and his rally from last to collar a tiring leader was notable for how much lateral movement he made while trying to pick a spot at the back of the pack (three wide first turn, six deep entering backstretch, then down to the rail and gradually out to the seven path turning for home). The effort produced one of the weaker stakes Beyers (80) on this year's Derby trail, and it clocked .54 seconds slower than 2-year-old fillies covered the same 1 1/16 miles distance in the GII Golden Rod S. earlier on that same card. But this off-pace specialist will benefit from any sort of speed setup that might occur in the Southwest, and any progress in his 2021 debut should not be judged so much by whether or not he wins the race but by how he finishes. This guy could be a slow-developing surprise.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Freedom Fighter (Violence): Away since wiring Aug. 1 Del Mar debut for Baffert as 1-2 fave. Listed by Santa Anita as “possible” for Saturday's GII San Vicente Stakes.

Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow): Half to 2019 sprint champ Mitole ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) stumbled at break of Lewis S. and took bumping in deep stretch when rallying capably for third in three-way photo. That was his first race back off 94-1 second in the Breeders' Cup.

Prime Factor (Quality Road): This 'TDN Rising Star' is relegated out of the Top 12 after a no-excuse third in the Holy Bull S. in which he stalked two long-shot pacemakers and never fired when called upon for run. Fellow Todd Pletcher-trained stablemate Likeable (Frosted) also lost his standing within the Top 12 after running up on heels and coming up empty in the GIII Swale S.

Roman Centurian (Empire Maker): Nice try first time against winners when rallying from last and beaten only a neck in the Lewis S. over a tiring, drying-out track.

Tarantino (Pioneerof the Nile): Eye-catching 26-1 effort in Holy Bull S. on Saturday. Hustled for lead, attended pace, put nose in front three-eighths out, got inhaled by stalkers but stayed on with purpose to regain second.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for February 2 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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