Tag: Derby Top 12

The TDN Derby Top 20 for April 20

We've entered that fun phase of microscopic scrutiny that accompanies the GI Kentucky Derby waiting game. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” points leaderboard that Churchill Downs will use to determine starting berths; that list can be accessed here.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $2,265,144.
Last Start: 1st GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6, 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3, 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 140

When you're the undefeated juvenile champ coming off a gutsy win in the most demanding prep of the season, you'd better expect to have a figurative target on your back in Louisville. This Tapit-sired Godolphin homebred can be a threatening pace presence while still retaining multiple gears for a stretch fight, as evidenced by his 97-Beyer Speed Figure win by a neck in the GII Blue Grass S. after an arduous stretch battle. That's a potent combination of tactics the majority of his foes have yet to demonstrate. The final furlong of this 'TDN Rising Star's Blue Grass was clocked in :12.53, the fastest in seven editions of that stakes since Keeneland switched back from synthetic to dirt. But we're now going on 30 years since the last Blue Grass winner—Strike the Gold in 1991—also won the Derby. In the 21st Century, Street Sense, American Pharoah and Nyquist have been the only 2-year-old Eclipse Award winners to win the Derby. There were no dual Eclipse/Derby winners in the 1980s or '90s. But in the '70s that feat was routine, and the honor roll includes some legendary names: Spectacular Bid, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Foolish Pleasure, Secretariat and Riva Ridge.

2) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB})
O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 6-3-1-1, $541,700.
Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 102

A bet on Known Agenda in the Derby is essentially a wager that he's put early-season greenness behind him and will be able to leverage the stamina and speed aspects of his pedigree effectively enough to excel over 10 furlongs. The dam of this athletic chestnut, Byrama, was bred in Great Britain but was exported stateside to earn a Grade I win at nine furlongs over a synthetic surface at Hollywood Park. And Known Agenda himself already has four lifetime attempts at 1 1/8 miles, which leaves him positioned a bit better than many of his competitors. A $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG, this Curlin colt looked impressive gliding up the rail to cuff the field in the GI Florida Derby, his second straight win since adding blinkers. But his 94 Beyer Speed Figure in that race was a 12-point leap off of his career best, and Known Agenda will have to up that number yet again to win in Louisville, where a clear, ground-saving run might not be as achievable in the 20-horse Derby the way it was at Gulfstream.

3) HOT ROD CHARLIE (c, Oxbow–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
O-Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing LLC & William Strauss; B-Edward A Cox (KY); T-Doug O'Neill. Sales History: $17,000 Ylg '19 FTKFEB; $110,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-1-2, $1,005,700.
Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6; 3rd GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110

Hot Rod Charlie figures to go off as the third choice in the Derby betting, and at 7-1 or so I can see him offering a hint of value (as opposed to the two horses ranked ahead of him, both of whom figure to be slightly underlaid). If this two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) does manage to earn a blanket of roses, it will probably be because he manages to fuse the raw speed of his older half-brother (2019 sprint champ Mitole) with the staying power of his sire (Oxbow, the wire-to-wire winner of the 2013 GI Preakness S.). Known for being relaxed in morning training, Hot Rod Charlie comes across as a horse who is speed-centric but doesn't require the lead, and he's run well in deep stretch under sustained pressure and amid bumping. There is one historical caveat that works against Hot Rod Charlie, though: He ran second at 94-1 in last November's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The 108 horses who have run 1-2-3 in the 36-year history of the Juvenile have only accounted for four Derby wins (3.7%), meaning a good race in the Juvenile has devolved into a negative-slanted metric for projecting success six months later in the Derby.

4) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 wlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW & MGSP, 5-2-2-1, $320,050.
Last Start: 2nd GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6, 3rd GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

This $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt bulleted a half mile in :47.20 Sunday at Keeneland (1/27) in his first timed workout since giving division leader Essential Quality a serious run for the money in the Blue Grass S. (97 Beyers for both). On Monday Highly Motivated shipped to Churchill, were trainer Chad Brown hopes to hone this bay's tactical speed into an effective weapon over 10 furlongs. Highly Motivated also beat No. 2-ranked Known Agenda in a MSW last season in New York, meaning he's fared the best in head-to-head matchups against the horses at the top of the crop. Over the past three decades, contenders who have lost the Blue Grass have actually performed better in the Derby than the winners of that prep, with Street Sense (2007), Thunder Gulch (1995) and Sea Hero (1993) all tasting defeat in Lexington prior to reversing form in Louisville. But despite the arresting visual nature of Highly Motivated's stretch fight in the Blue Grass, this colt will go to the Derby without having seen the inside of a winner's circle in nearly six months. You have to go back to Super Saver in 2010 to find any Derby winner who did not win a race at age three prior to winning the Derby.

5) KING FURY (c, Curlin–Taris, by Flatter)
O-Fern Circle Stables & Three Chimneys Farm LLC;
B-Heider Family Stables (KY); T-Ken McPeek. Sales History: $950,000 Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record:
GSW, 6-3-0-0, $262,739.
Last Start: 1st GIII Stonestreet Lexington S., KEE, Apr. 10
Accomplishments: 1st Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 25
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 20.

Last week King Fury was parked way out at No. 28 on the qualifying list, but seven defections have tightened up the field to the point where he now only needs one other horse to opt out to make the starting cutoff. This $950,000 FTSAUG Curlin colt isn't ideally prepped for the Derby with just one start at age three, but trainer Ken McPeek no doubt can build off of King Fury's meaningful base of six lifetime starts at 1 1/16 miles and a punch-through 95-Beyer win over the slop in the GIII Lexington S. on Apr. 10. We are certainly in an era when A-list prospects race only sparingly, but to give you an idea of the hurdle that King Fury must overcome to win the Derby, consider this: Since 1937, horses with just one sophomore start prior to the Derby are a collective 0-for-24 (and no horse has even attempted that feat since 2013). Yet in this case, I'm willing to go against convention if the price is right, pari-mutuelly speaking. This is a “live” Derby horse if he sneaks in.

6) DYNAMIC ONE (c, 3, Union Rags–Beat the Drums, by Smart Strike)
O-Repole Stable, Phipps Stable & St Elias Stable; B-Phipps Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $725,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 5-1-2-0, $194,120
Last Start: 2nd GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40

Few bettors are going to back Dynamic One in the Derby based on his speed numbers alone. He was nipped at the wire by a 72-1 stablemate in the slowest running ever of the GII Wood Memorial (89 Beyer), and his maiden win by 5 1/4 lengths was achieved by pressing a 42-1 pacemaker through soft splits in a nine-furlong race clocked in 1:55.21 (79 Beyer). But trainer Todd Pletcher's initially high aspirations for this $725,000 KEESEP colt are starting to coalesce into discernible improvement, as Dynamic One is cultivating the look of an effective stayer who is just now learning how to finish. Earlier in his career, this Union Raags colt drew some undesirable posts and he had trouble leaving the gate in three starts. But in the Wood he rated patiently four wide on both turns, then wrested control of a six-way go from the quarter pole home before losing in the final jump to Bourbonic (Bernardini). Sired by a GI Belmont S. winner and with a female pedigree that resonates with Phipps-homebred stamina influences, Dynamic One's lofty ranking at No. 7 is not so much an assessment of where he stands now, but a prognostication of what he might be capable of orchestrating at long odds on May 1.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-2-3, $461,420.
Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20.
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 2nd GIII Iroquois S., CD, Sept. 25, 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13, 3rd GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 66

Jockey Mike Smith will be the new rider for this $525,000 KEESEP colt from Steve Asmussen's barn. Smith is 2-for-26 in the Derby, and it's interesting to juxtapose the odds of his two winners, Giacomo (50-1 in 2005) and Justify (the 2018 fave who went on to win the Triple Crown). But Smith's luck in the last two Derbies hasn't been so hot: In 2019, he was the rider of morning-line fave Omaha Beach, who got injured and scratched days before the race; he instead picked up the ride on 24-1 Cutting Humor, who ran tenth. Last summer, Smith opted off of eventual Derby winner Authentic to instead ride Honor A.P., who finished fourth. Smith doesn't often ride for Asmussen (they race on different circuits except for big racing days), but he won with the last two mounts the trainer offered him at Churchill last June 27. Smith's task with Midnight Bourbon will involve teaching this capable (three 93+ Beyers this year) stalker how to seal the deal, because this Tiznow bay has had trouble putting away opponents under pressure. Midnight Bourbon has never been off the board in seven lifetime starts, a nice foundation that has yet to be capped with a breakthrough effort.

8) ROCK YOUR WORLD (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker)
O-Hronis Racing LLC & Talla Racing LLC. B-Ron & Deborah McAnally (KY). T-John Sadler. Sales History: $650,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $546,600.
Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Pasadena S., SA, Feb. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100

Although Rock Your World's record stands at a perfect 3-for-3, trainer John Sadler told TDN last week that it took a lot of behind-the-scenes prep to make the leap from winning a MSW turf sprint and a $100,000 grass stakes to wiring a Grade I field with a 100 Beyer in this colt's first dirt try. “After the Pasadena [S.], we went to work a little bit harder on things that weren't working for him. We took him to the gate three times before the Santa Anita Derby, we did extra schooling in the paddock,” Sadler said. “I also wanted to start on the grass because I thought it would be easier. He's a big horse [and I] wanted to give him time to develop, grow up, mature into himself. He's done that…. Does whatever you want. Willing worker. Pretty nice horse to train. Good energy.” Despite a pedigree with some convincing stamina influences (by Candy Ride [Arg] out of an Empire Maker mare), Rock Your World may still be in for a class shock in Louisville. His Santa Anita Derby was soft in terms of quality, with only one stakes winner among the eight horses he beat by 4 1/4 lengths.

9) SUPER STOCK (c, 3, Dialed In–Super Girlie, by Closing Argument)
O-Erv Woolsey & Keith Asmussen; B-Pedro & P J Gonzalez (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $70,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 8-2-2-2, $804,762.
Last Start: 1st, GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10.
Accomplishments: 2nd Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 25; 3rd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3; 3rd GIII Iroquois S., CD, Sept. 5. Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 109

Super Stock might be a late arrival on the Derby scene, but wind the clock back to last autumn to recall this $70,000 KEESEP colt by Dialed In finished just 4 3/4 lengths behind Essential Quality in a Grade I stakes at Keeneland, then was bet down to 9-10 favoritism when second in a black-type stakes at Churchill. This Steve Asmussen trainee then didn't race for nearly five months, but apparently got more out of his 40-1 fourth in the GII Rebel S. than was evident on paper, rebounding to win the GI Arkansas Derby with a well-executed, ground-saving surge into a tiring speed setup. On the plus side, this is a horse who consistently advances his position in the stretch and could be on the cusp of getting good at the right time. On the minus side, the subpar performances of the two 'TDN Rising Stars' he passed in the stretch at Oaklawn were so iffy that the connections of Concert Tour (Street Sense) have already opted out of the Derby and those of Caddo River (Hard Spun) are still on the fence.

10) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-3-0, $315,200.
Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30, 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6, 2nd GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 74

When the subject of trainer Bob Baffert's Derby prowess gets brought up, it isn't long before someone chimes in that it's not surprising he's won six Derbies considering the depth of his well-stocked stable that annually gets replenished with fashionably bred, high-priced colts. But if Medina Spirit–Baffert's lone remaining Derby candidate this year–delivers win number seven, no one is going to say this low-budget bargain ($1,000 at OBSWIN and $35,000 OBSOPN) was out of the reach for everyone else at the sales ring. This Protonico colt's 2-3-0 record from five starts (with a Grade II stakes win and Beyers routinely in the mid-90s) is all the more impressive considering Medina Spirit was discovered to have had an entrapped epiglottis after the Mar. 6 GII San Felipe S. He had surgery to correct it, missing practically no training, and was a best-of-the-rest second behind Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby the first time he raced after the operation.

11) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $361,252.
Last Start: 6th GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13, 3rd GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 52

If you can avert your eyes from Mandaloun's no-punch sixth as the beaten fave in the Louisiana Derby, the overall past performance block for this 'TDN Rising Star' isn't badly tarnished. This Juddmonte homebred by Into Mischief kept credible company in his first four starts, registering improving Beyers in each of those races. He's a stalker with some seasoning and a speed-over-stamina pedigree, and he won his only start at Churchill. But beware of this red flag: Trainer Brad Cox has started a total of 10 horses on dirt at 1 1/4 miles or longer over the last five years. None have won, and only one managed to hit the board.

12) SOUP AND SANDWICH (c, Into Mischief–Souper Scoop, by Tapit)
O-Live Oak Plantation; B-Live Oak Stud (FL); T-Mark Casse. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-2-1-0, $203,875.
Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40

I don't rank him as an overt win threat, I generally respect any young horse that trainer Mark Casse thinks is ready to attempt a sizable step up in class and distance. This gray didn't debut until Jan. 28 in a restricted sprint for Florida-breds, then only had to beat two other starters in a two-turn Tampa allowance. But this Live Oak homebred shouldered the pace burden on the front end of the Florida Derby and still had something remaining to punch back at Known Agenda in upper stretch, earning second despite finishing on his left lead through the lane.

Potentially rounding out the starting gate…

13) Caddo River (Hard Spun): The Derby status of 'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River was in limbo up until deadline for this column on Monday, and it could remain undecided until later in the week. This Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable is expected to be a key pace component if he does start in the Derby, but he appeared out of his comfort zone in each of his last two stakes preps at Oaklawn, when he was rank while stalking in the GII Rebel S. (fading to fifth) and when he got dueled into defeat in the Arkansas Derby (regaining second but not authoritatively so). Caddo River does own an impressive 9 ½-length victory at Churchill, which could be of benefit if he goes in the Derby.

14) Hidden Stash (Constitution): Deep closer Hidden Stash's two in-the-money Tampa stakes attempts were sneaky-good efforts, particularly his runner-up try in the GII Tampa Bay Derby. But he didn't advance when outclassed in the Blue Grass, checking in as a one-paced fourth with a slight Beyer regression. This $50,000 KEESEP does own a win over the Churchill main track and Hidden Stash figures to be passing horses late in the lane, making him a potential inclusion for underneath spots in exotics.

15) Helium (Ironicus): After Helium won the GII Tampa Bay Derby, trainer Mark Casse said what impressed him most was how this 3-for-3, $55,000 FTKOCT colt closed from midpack even though the pre-race strategy was to have this Ironicus colt sitting closer to the early pace. Such versatility can be a virtue in a mad-scramble race like the Kentucky Derby, which Helium will attempt off an eight-week gap. But his 84 Beyer for that effort rates on the low end for prep-race speed figures, and the nine horses that have run back out of the Tampa Derby have combined for only one next-out win and one third (both requiring class drops).

16) Bourbonic (Bernardini): This Calumet homebred required a drop into maiden-claiming company to register his first win back in December, and he subsequently failed to deliver when second in a Parx allowance two months later. Let go at 72-1 odds in the slowly run Wood Memorial, he looped the group from far back under an impeccably timed ride by Kendrick Carmouche. There is some logic in thinking that this is a horse (whose Beyers have been on an upward arc for four straight races) who is sure to get a quicker cadence to set the table for him in the Derby, so maybe lightning will strike twice.

17) Sainthood (Mshawish): Sainthood ($100,000 KEEJAN, $90,000 KEESEP RNA, $62,000 OBSOCT) was the only horse gaining on the winner when second (84 Beyer) in the GIII Jeff Ruby S. at Turfway. But that race as a whole looks aberrational considering the favorite got wiped out at the break and there was a logjam of traffic that impeded several late runners in the stretch. As a May 15 foal, Sainthood won't truly turn three before Derby day.

18) O Besos (Orb): Son of the 2013 Derby victor was most recently third, beaten just two lengths, in the Louisiana Derby. Beyers have ascended in all five starts for this homebred colt, although habit of slow starts and giving up real estate when wide into the first turns of route races could be costly in the Derby.

19) Like the King (Palace Malice): His sire won the 12-furlong Belmont S. in 2013 and his damsire (Corinthian) was a high-torque miler who won both the GI Metropolitan H. and the inaugural Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile in 2007. This rangy chestnut ($28,000 KEENOV, $170,000 OBSOCT) has never been off the board in six lifetime tries, but his only three wins have been over turf (once at Belterra) and Tapeta (twice at Turfway).

20) Dream Shake (Twirling Candy): Debuted in a big way at 20-1 odds Feb. 7, earning 'TDN Rising Star' status when coasting home by 4 ¾ lengths (96 Beyer) over a decent field (two next-out winners). But since coming off Lasix and stepping up to graded stakes, this colt has twice run no-impact thirds, beaten an aggregate 16 ¾ lengths. He bulleted five-eighths in :59.20 (1/72) on Saturday at Santa Anita.

The post The TDN Derby Top 20 for April 20 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

The TDN Derby Top 20 For April 13

The long prep season is over, but some jostling for a starting spot remains among the horses on the cusp of the qualifying points cutoff. Please note the rankings below are independent from the “Road to the GI Kentucky Derby” points leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. That list can be accessed here.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $2,265,144.
Last Start: 1st GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6, 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3, 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 140

With all the prep stakes now in the books, it's safe to say the GII Toyota Blue Grass S. stands out as this year's only true slugfest between two A-list colts who asserted themselves on the front end and kept fighting right through to the finish. While earlier in the season you could have legitimately postulated that 'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality enjoyed a couple of gift-trip wins without facing stern stretch battles during his five-for-five run, we now know this Tapit-sired Godolphin homebred has both a relentless, high-pressure cruising gear and enough extra torque in deep stretch to determinedly seal the deal. But given the arduous nature of that Keeneland effort–for both Essential Quality and Highly Motivated (Into Mischief)–it's also within reason to ask whether it was almost too taxing a race four weeks out from the Derby (and within the context of both colts only getting two pre-Derby starts at age three). However, should either one (or both) end up thriving off of such a demanding performance to springboard forward in terms of development and confidence, the rest of the division is in serious trouble. This is an aggressive, athletic gray who meshes well with rider Luis Saez to make his own breaks happen within races, and his overall body of work firmly entrenches him as the horse to beat (although maybe not to bet at underlaid odds) in Louisville.

2) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB})
O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 6-3-1-1, $541,700.
Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 102

In recent seasons, trainer Todd Pletcher has generally not been flooded with early-winter Top 12 candidates. But come April every year, he reliably has several Derby threats primed to pounce. Known Agenda is the best of this year's group for Pletcher, and he told the TDN Writers' Room last week that this $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG surprised by running well first time out when finishing second sprinting at Saratoga. Known Agenda then ran to his distance-centric pedigree by beating well-regarded Greatest Honour (Tapit) going nine furlongs in start number two (with the rest of the field 21 lengths behind). Yet this colt was green and left himself too much work to do in both the GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct and the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa. Blinkers helped to focus him for a breakout allowance romp and then a sharp, rail-running victory in the GI Florida Derby (94 Beyer Speed Figure). “A lot of it's just physical maturity, mental maturity,” Pletcher said. “He's a Curlin. He's bred to be better a little later.”

3) HOT ROD CHARLIE (c, Oxbow–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
O-Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing LLC & William Strauss; B-Edward A Cox (KY); T-Doug O'Neill. Sales history: $17,000 Ylg '19 FTKFEB; $110,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-1-2, $1,005,700.
Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6; 3rd GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30. Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110

Flavien Prat will ride Hot Rod Charlie in the Derby, and the standings-topping Santa Anita rider is picking up a live, versatile mount who has impressed with steady advancement ever since he ran a close second at 94-1 odds behind Essential Quality in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Even though this two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) is a half-brother to 2019 sprint champ Mitole, trainer Doug O'Neill was on record as far back as last autumn saying Hot Rod Charlie has the makings of a two-turn horse. This Oxbow colt most recently scored on the front end in the GII Louisiana Derby, but he's a fairly relaxed goer who doesn't appear to be a need-the-lead type of speedster. Hot Rod Charlie also got a good deal of schooling out of his Jan. 30 GIII Robert B. Lewis S. third, in which he was beaten a neck in a three-way photo after stumbling at the break and bumping in deep stretch, and he is beginning to resonate as a seasoned competitor who can handle varying levels of pace pressure and in-race chaos.

4) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 wlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW & MGSP, 5-2-2-1, $320,050.
Last Start: 2nd GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6, 3rd GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

For this $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt to finish second and only a neck behind the undefeated juvenile champ in his first two-turn attempt says a lot for both Highly Motivated and trainer Chad Brown. This colt was two-for-three in progressively better sprints at age two, culminating with an eventual key-race stakes victory on the Breeders' Cup undercard. Brown gave Highly Motivated some extra time after that November win to recover from stiffness; he resurfaced belatedly in the one-turn-mile GIII Gotham S., yet failed to impress with a no-impact third as the favorite. Brown does not usually press horses along on the Derby trail under those circumstances, so it would not have been shocking to see Highly Motivated get rerouted on a different path. But Brown gave him one more chance to prove he belonged in the Blue Grass S., and it was ultra-impressive how he took heat from the top soph in the nation and kept turning back Essential Quality until the final few jumps to the wire (both earned 97 Beyers).

5) KING FURY (c, Curlin–Taris, by Flatter)
O-Fern Circle Stables & Three Chimneys Farm LLC; B-Heider Family Stables (KY); T-Ken McPeek. Sales history: $950,000 Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-0-0, $262,739. Last Start: 1st GIII Stonestreet Lexington S., KEE, Apr. 10.
Accomplishments: 1st Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 25. Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 20.

King Fury's lofty placement this high up on the list might seem audacious considering he's parked way out at 28th on the qualifying list. But I had him ranked within the Top 12 way back in December and remain bullish on his chances should multiple defections allow him to enter the Derby. This $950,000 FTSAUG yearling is a smooth-striding son of Curlin who had an ample foundation of two-turn experience at age two (five races at 1 1/16 miles) before making his delayed sophomore debut Saturday, splashing home with a 95-Beyer GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. score. King Fury is two-for-two at Churchill, winning the Street Sense S. there last October before wheeling back 12 days later in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile only to get trapped behind a tiring speed horse. The experiment of blinkers and an attempt at setting the pace in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. yielded only a fifth-place effort, but trainer Ken McPeek had this colt finely tuned for an 18-1 upset off the bench in the Lexington. “If he doesn't get in the Derby, he will run in the [GI] Preakness S.,” McPeek said. “He seems like a horse that is ready to do all that.”

6) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-2-3, $461,420.
Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20.
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 2nd GIII Iroquois S., CD, Sept. 25, 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13, 3rd GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 66

Midnight Bourbon's wire-to-wire win in the GIII Lecomte S. back in January represents his only win this year, yet it wasn't his best effort because he controlled a paceless race and coasted home unopposed. But when this $525,000 KEESEP colt by Tiznow stretched out to nine furlongs in the GII Risen Star S., it was a deceptively stronger try considering Midnight Bourbon twice led between calls (on the far turn and at the eighth pole), then galloped out longer and stronger than the top two finishers while finishing third, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths. He tried hard, but was outrun in the Louisiana Derby when chasing the very game Hot Rod Charlie every step of the 1 3/16-mile trip, and you can't quibble with the Beyers this Steve Asmussen trainee has earned as a sophomore (93, 96, 96). Asmussen may be 0-for-21 in the Derby, but two of his four Derby starters who hit the board later ended up getting voted Horse of the Year (Curlin and Gun Runner).

7) DYNAMIC ONE (c, 3, Union Rags–Beat the Drums, by Smart Strike)
O-Repole Stable, Phipps Stable & St Elias Stable; B-Phipps Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $725,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-1-2-0, $194,120.
Last Start: 2nd GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40.

This colt might end up as the late-blooming Derby overlay whose potential could exceed long odds over 10 furlongs. Trainer Todd Pletcher told the TDN Writers' Room last week he was “a little disappointed” Dynamic One's first three races didn't match the level of ability he displayed in training. But this $725,000 KEESEP colt had some plausible post-position excuses, and really turned the corner when shipped to Aqueduct for a nine-furlong maiden special weight win followed by a near-miss second in the GII Wood Memorial S. “I think he's still learning how to run, learning how to finish off the race,” Pletcher said, adding that Dynamic One “got a little lost by himself” before being collared at the wire by a last-to-first rival. Last week's sidelining of highly ranked Greatest Honour might have incidentally freed up jockey Jose Ortiz for the Derby mount aboard Dynamic One (he had ridden both colts in their recent stakes starts).

8) SUPER STOCK (c, 3, Dialed In–Super Girlie, by Closing Argument)
O-Erv Woolsey & Keith Asmussen; B-Pedro & P J Gonzalez (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $70,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 8-2-2-2, $804,762.
Last Start: 1st GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10.
Accomplishments: 2nd Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 25; 3rd
GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3; 3rd GIII Iroquois S., CD, Sept. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 109.

If jockey Ricardo Santana Jr.'s instructions for the GI Arkansas Derby were to save ground and make one run at the favored pacemakers, he executed that plan flawlessly. Always in touch behind the dueling duo while stalking in third, this $70,000 KEESEP colt by Dialed In briefly had to switch off the heels of the tiring favorite three-sixteenths from the wire before responding to a rousing stretch ride. His Beyer of 92 translates to a nine-point improvement over his career best. But when you parse the fractions and consider how much Super Stock benefitted from an ideal setup (his winning move was launched into a slow :26.49 fourth-quarter split and there was little resistance from the spent speedsters) the Arkansas Derby doesn't stand out as a particularly overpowering race. On the brighter side, if you look at Super Stock's company lines, he has already beaten two well-regarded 'TDN Rising Stars' ranked within the current Top 12, and he has run a credible third and second, respectively, behind the Nos. 1 and 5 horses on this list.

9) ROCK YOUR WORLD (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker)
O-Hronis Racing LLC & Talla Racing LLC. B-Ron & Deborah McAnally (KY). T-John Sadler. Sales History: $650,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $546,600.
Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Pasadena S., SA, Feb. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100

If someone told you a few months ago that the winner of the 100-Beyer GI Santa Anita Derby would be a 3-for-3 colt who didn't make his first start until January, would you have guessed correctly that colt wasn't trained by Bob Baffert? Rock Your World, a $650,000 KEESEP colt by Candy Ride (Arg), is the product of a nice bit of turf-to-dirt conditioning by John Sadler, who now brings an intriguing wild card to Louisville with stout pedigree underpinnings (Empire Maker, Unbridled and Giant's Causeway all in the recent female family). But while the sky is always the proverbial limit with an undefeated colt, I'm skeptical that the Santa Anita Derby is a reliable measuring metric. Rock Your World didn't have to fight for the lead, got pressed chiefly by a 45-1 no-hoper who cracked without resistance, and every successive quarter-mile split that he set on the front end clocked in slower than the one that preceded it. Rock Your World's triple-digit Beyer represented an 18-point leap from two previous 82 ratings; besting a full field of 20 going 10 furlongs under considerably more strenuous pace pressure will require another tall-ask advancement.

10) CONCERT TOUR (c, Street Sense–Purse Strings, by Tapit)
O/B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 4-3-0-1, $556,600.
Last Start: 3rd GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13; 1st GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 6.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 70

One bad race won't totally derail 'TDN Rising Star' Concert Tour from being an A-list competitor, but his Derby status is in doubt and there was no mistaking the disappointment in trainer Bob Baffert's assessment the day after Concert Tour came up empty in the Arkansas Derby. “We'll see how he works back,” Baffert said. “Churchill, I don't like to run there unless they're going to be really live. We'll see how he comes out of this race and see how he trains forward. I didn't really want a hard race out of it, but we still wanted to win. I've won Derbies off of losses. You learn about your horse and see if there is improvement to be made.” This Street Sense homebred for Gary and Mary West forced the issue as the 3-10 fave at Oaklawn, and although he won the pace battle by the time the field hit the quarter pole, Concert Tour had nothing left to swat away the stretch bid by Super Stock, and he even allowed the front-runner he had already put away to re-rally for second.

11) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-3-0, $315,200.
Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30, 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6, 2nd GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 74

Medina Spirit started the season ranked quite a bit lower on trainer Bob Baffert's deep sophomore roster, but he'll now head to the Derby as the stable's most reliable contender. This Protonico colt hammered for relatively short money ($1,000 at OBSWIN and  $35,000 OBSOPN), and earlier in the season Baffert likened Medina Spirit to his 1997 Derby winner Silver Charm, who was also not an overly expensive OBS-sold colt ($16,500 OBSAUG yearling, $100,000 OBSAPR). Medina Spirit owns two wins and three seconds from five starts, he's run Beyers within the 94-99 range on four occasions, and he's already beaten No 3-ranked Hot Rod Charlie in a head-to-head matchup. He's a no-nonsense hard trier whose grittiness can't be overlooked if the Derby develops into a free-for-all down the stretch.

12) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW & GISP, 6-2-3-0, $396,092.
Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River was hounded until the top of the stretch by 3-10 favorite Concert Tour in the Arkansas Derby, and although this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable managed to claw back second late in the lane, that re-rally was largely the product of Concert Tour throwing in the towel rather than Caddo River being exceptionally resurgent. Perhaps a return to Churchill Downs–where Caddo River first sparked to life with a 9 1/2-length MSW clock-cleaning last November–will yield a turnaround in time for the first Saturday in May. Caddo River has now been given two top-tier chances to prove he's more than a one-dimensional speed threat, and while he hasn't advanced to that level yet, his first four races showed enough promise that I'm reluctant to abandon him entirely.

Potentially rounding out the starting gate…

13) Mandaloun (Into Mischief): This 'TDN Rising Star' bulleted five-eighths in :58.80 (1/28) at Churchill on Saturday as he seeks to shrug off a no-excuse, beaten-fave sixth in the Louisiana Derby. A Juddmonte homebred, Mandaloun already owns an allowance win over the Kentucky Derby surface (sprinting last autumn) and trainer Brad Cox is banking on the colt being able to rebound to the full potential of his speed-over-stamina pedigree (by Into Mischief out of an Empire Maker mare) over 10 furlongs.

14) Soup and Sandwich (Into Mischief): There is value-oriented upside in the two-for-thrree Soup and Sandwich, a Live Oak homebred out of a Tapit mare. This Mark Casse-trained gray is a pace presence, and the race that stands out for him was his Florida Derby second, in which he forced the issue and was only one to give Known Agenda a tussle down the stretch despite being on his left lead. “He has a big stride on him and really got over the track well,” assistant trainer David Carroll said Sunday after Soup and Sandwich breezed a half mile in :48.80 (8/17) at Churchill.

15) Helium (Ironicus): The three-for-three winner of the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby shipped from Florida to Louisville last week and on Saturday breezed five-eighths in :59.20 (4/28), besting in-company maiden mate Ghost of the Mambo (Ghostzapper) by two fifths of a second before galloping out six furlongs in 1:12 under jockey Julien Leparoux. This $55,000 FTKOCT colt out of a mare by 1995 Derby winner Thunder Gulch is attempting the Derby off an eight-week break. Only two horses have won the Derby off at least that long a layoff; both were more than 100 years ago.

16) Bourbonic (Bernardini): Calumet races its homebreds relatively frequently and it's an outfit with some pricey upsets on the Triple Crown trail over the last decade, like Oxbow's 15-1 Preakness win in 2013, Bravazo's 21-1 Risen Star S. score in 2018, and Everfast's 29-1 near-miss second in the 2019 Preakness. Bourbonic's 72-1 last-to-first thriller in the Wood Memorial tops them all for bombastic odds, but he's a difficult horse to see repeating in the Derby. His final time was the slowest in the history of the Wood, and he won by a bob after closing into pedestrian quarters of :24.88, :25.30, :24.80, :25.78 and a final eighth of :13.73.

17) Rombauer (Twirling Candy): The last-to-first winner of the El Camino Real Derby is on the outside looking in, points-wise, but several higher-ranking horses no longer appear to be Derby-bound, so it looks as if he'll make the cut. This Fradkin homebred was not in the same league as Essential Quality and Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass S., yet was still 4 1/2 lengths clear of everyone else when third. Rombauer has won over both turf and Tapeta, but never on dirt.

18) Sainthood (Mshawish) This 1-for-3 Todd Pletcher trainee led early in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, then conceded the lead and rated from midpack. Sainthood ($100,000 KEEJAN, $90,000 KEESEP RNA, $62,000 OBSOCT) came off the inside for the stretch drive only to get pinballed in heavy traffic, but once clear he was the only one making up ground on the winner, finishing second. Sire Mshawish was a globe-trotting, multi-surface victor with a sweet spot between eight and nine furlongs; damsire Lemon Drop Kid won the 1999 GI Belmont S.

19) Panadol (Flatter): Only three races on this $180,000 OBSAPR colt's Meydan resume, which is not so unusual these days for a Derby aspirant. But what is out of the ordinary is that two of them were at 1 3/16 miles, perhaps giving this New York-bred a seasoning edge beyond those limited starts. He has been forwardly placed in all three tries and Panadol's only loss was a second in the UAE Derby when he was run down by open-lengths winner Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) who is bypassing Louisville and waiting for the GI Belmont S. instead.

20) Like the King (Palace Malice): This rangy chestnut ($28,000 KEENOV, $170,000 OBSOCT) set or forced the pace in four 2-year-old races after starting his career at Belterra Park. He transitioned effectively to stalking, then rating, in two Turfway stakes, and he's moving in the right direction. Yet Like the King was beaten a combined 19 3/4 lengths in his only two dirt tries and is soft in the numbers department, with a career-best Beyer of 86.

The post The TDN Derby Top 20 For April 13 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

The TDN Derby Top 20 for April 6

The first Saturday in April's “power trio” of nine-furlong qualifying preps is in the books. We also learned last week that no Japan-based horse will be accepting the “Road to the GI Kentucky Derby” invitation this year, and that none of the qualifying European horses are nominated, meaning they'd have to supplement $200,000 to get in. So at this time it appears that all 20 starting spots will go to American horses. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” points leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. That list can be accessed here.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $2,265,144.
Last Start: 1st GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6, 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3, 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 140

'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality's relentless GII Blue Grass S. win now rates as the divisional measuring stick for accomplishment under sustained intensity. The undefeated juvenile champ didn't have to uncork such a highly torqued display of force in his final Derby prep to sail into Louisville as the favorite. But the scary-good nature of his performance is underpinned by trainer Brad Cox's belief that this Tapit-sired Godolphin homebred is only going to build off such a demanding slugfest. “EQ” veered outward and bumped at the break but quickly righted himself to seize a brief early lead. Jockey Luis Saez then skillfully backed him out of a protracted speed duel with stretch-out pacemaker Highly Motivated (Into Mischief), although EQ was keen to re-engage on the backstretch run. Applying outside pressure about a neck back, Saez edged incrementally closer until EQ ranged up on even terms with his rival 2 1/2 furlongs out, and the cadence quickened with Highly Motivated continually repulsing the champ's threatening surges. They shifted and drifted in lockstep through the lane, and only in the final 50 yards did the determined gray finally edge away, earning a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. The final furlong of the Blue Grass was clocked in :12.53, the fastest in seven editions of that stakes since Keeneland's main track switched from synthetic back to dirt.

2) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 7-3-1-3, $422,440.
Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27, 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP. Jan. 30
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 80

Long-striding Greatest Honour ran three visually impressive races at Gulfstream this winter and has always figured to be a “longer-the-better” type of colt who should excel over 10 furlongs. But he can't quite match the tactical toolbox of new No. 1 kingpin Essential Quality, who commands races with speed-oriented pressure instead of launching one prolonged bid from the back of the pack. This Tapit-sired Courtlandt Farms homebred tried to follow the rail-running winner in the Florida Derby, but holes that opened for Known Agenda (Curlin) closed before Greatest Honour could fly through them; that's the inherent risk of being a trip- and pace-dependent stayer. I'm not a “numbers guy,” yet I do have to admit it's concerning this colt has never cracked 89 (and even regressed to an 85 last time out) on the Beyer scale. But trainer Shug McGuaghey's main goal was never about getting Greatest Honour to peak on the final Saturday in March, and you can't quantify in any sort of numerical figuration the value that this patient Hall-of-Fame conditioner brings to the equation in terms of having this colt tighter for May 1.

3) CONCERT TOUR (c, Street Sense–Purse Strings, by Tapit)
O/B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $756,600.
Last Start: 1st GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 6
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

The more I look at Concert Tour's past performances, the more I think he's capable of punching through in a big way in Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby, which could stamp him as a horse to beat on the first Saturday in May. This undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' looms large off a frontrunning GII Rebel S. score that was accomplished professionally and all under his own power. The ultra-confident, can-do-no-wrong way that Joel Rosario has been riding through the first quarter of 2021 adds immeasurably to the overall package, and he is a nice fit for a horse like Concert Tour, who likes to be close to the pace but doesn't absolutely need to be on the lead to fire his best shot. Will history also be on Concert Tour's side? The only horses to pull off the Arkansas/Kentucky Derby double since 1980 have been American Pharoah (2015), Smarty Jones (2004) and Sunny's Halo (1983). But keep an eye on whoever finishes second at Oaklawn: Horses who have been the runner-up in the Arkansas Derby during that same time frame have also won three Kentucky Derbies–Super Saver (2010), Grindstone (1996) and Lil E. Tee (1992).

4) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB})
O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 6-3-1-1, $541,700.
Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 102

Known Agenda now has three wins at nine furlongs and has beaten No. 2-ranked Greatest Honour twice, but what was most impressive about his 94-Beyer Florida Derby victory was how he settled at the rail and came through inside of horses to launch into contention off the final turn. The addition of blinkers two starts back has noticeably increased this Curlin colt's comfort level with racing in tight quarters, and he generally seems to be focused in his stretch runs (beyond some excusable drifting under left-handed stick work in his final prep at Gulfstream). But in no races at age three has this $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG faced a really stern challenge through the final two furlongs of his races. His Feb. 26 allowance win by 11 lengths at 1-2 odds more or less equated to a public workout, and in the Florida Derby the only rival he had to nail in deep stretch was a 12-1 shot who had been softened up by forcing the pace. Having said that, momentum is definitely on Known Agenda's side, which is always a plus heading to Louisville.

5) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 wlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW & MGSP, 5-2-2-1, $320,050.
Last Start: 2nd GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6, 3rd GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 6
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

This $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt could very well end up heading to the Derby with the best runner-up performance in any 2021 prep race. Losing only by a neck in the Blue Grass S., his admirable tenacity on the lead while attempting two turns for the first time and being ceaselessly hounded by undefeated juvenile champ Essential Quality cannot be understated. Only time will tell if such a taxing effort toughens or saps both colts for the Derby; if either one manages to springboard forward off that demanding race, look out. Highly Motivated led through an opening quarter of :23.83, then Javier Castellano toned down the second quarter to :24.58. The third and fourth quarters were nearly identical in :23.87 and :23.89, and as noted above in Essential Quality's write-up, the final eighth was the fastest for this stakes in seven runnings on dirt over Keeneland's current nine-furlong configuration. Highly Motivated beat No. 4-ranked Known Agenda in their lone MSW matchup last season in New York, and his track-record, key-race stakes core on the Breeders' Cup undercard last November reinforces the idea that he is more than capable against upper-crust company.

6) HOT ROD CHARLIE (c, Oxbow–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
O-Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing LLC & William Strauss; B-Edward A Cox (KY); T-Doug O'Neill. Sales history: $17,000 Ylg '19 FTKFEB; $110,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-1-2, $1,005,700.
Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6; 3rd GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110

The one-two horses from last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile are now the one-two horses on the Derby points qualifying list after both Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie have completed their final preps. This half-brother to 2019 sprint champ Mitole (Eskendereya) is demonstrating improvement both visually and by the numbers (every lifetime Beyer faster than previous through seven lifetime starts), and jockey Joel Rosario has previously noted how this colt's ability to relax during morning training translates to him being responsive in the afternoons under varying pace scenarios and levels of pressure. Only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby–Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924. This two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) celebrates his third birthday Apr. 11.

7) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-2-0, $196,092.
Last Start: 5th GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10

Trainer Brad Cox said last week to expect a “more aggressive” Caddo River in Saturday's Arkansas Derby. “We're not going to sit on him quite as much as we did last time,” he added, referencing the refusal-to-rate meltdown that this 'TDN Rising Star' imposed upon himself when he conceded the lead to Concert Tour then fought the rider in the Rebel S. last time out. This Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable acted much more poised and professional in two New York MSW placings last autumn, then commanded the pace and won allowance and stakes starts at Churchill and Oaklawn by a combined 19 1/2 lengths. Cox said last month that Caddo River is the fastest (based on breezing) among his three Derby candidates. But it remains to be seen if that speed can be harnessed into a multi-dimensional tactical weapon that will allow Caddo River to control the flow of a race over 10 furlongs.

8) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-2-3, $461,420.
Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 2nd GIII Iroquois S., CD, Sept. 25, 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13, 3rd GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 66

There is some upside to Midnight Bourbon when you look at his entire body of work, but the caveat is you'd be backing him in the Derby coming off of two so-so performances and no wins since mid-January. This $525,000 KEESEP colt by Tiznow boasts a seven-race foundation of races at a mile or longer, five appearances in graded stakes, no off-the-board finishes, and Beyers of 93, 96 and 96 in three sophomore starts. It will be tough to leave this Steve Asmussen trainee out of Derby exotics, but building your entire betting strategy around him seems iffy. He hasn't yet learned how to seal the deal, and when he hooked up with Hot Rod Charlie for the final 2 1/2 furlongs of the Louisiana Derby, Midnight Bourbon was trying hard but clearly got outkicked after enjoying a sweet stalking trip that should have set him up nicely for a powerful finish. He closed at 26-1 in the Derby future pool right after his GIII Lecomte win three months ago and was 27-1 in the most recent version of that bet at the end of March.

9) ROCK YOUR WORLD (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker)
O-Hronis Racing LLC & Talla Racing LLC. B-Ron & Deborah McAnally (KY). T-John Sadler. Sales History: $650,000 ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $546,600.
Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Pasadena S., SA, Feb. 27
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100

This two-time grass winner (at six furlongs and a mile) stretched out to nine furlongs on dirt and really caught the eye with a 100-Beyer wire job in the GI Santa Anita Derby. That breakout performance earned this unbeaten $650,000 KEESEP colt by Candy Ride (Arg) a berth in the gate in Louisville, but the shallow-on-paper nature of this year's Santa Anita Derby–no other stakes winners besides this colt and beaten fave Medina Spirit (Protonico)–leaves Rock Your World's standing among Kentucky Derby peers kind of hazy. He was prominently placed from the outset and took control seven-eighths out when no one else seemed eager to do so. Tracked by a 45-1 presser, Rock Your World clicked off consecutive quarters of :22.42, :23.69, :24.53 and :25.63, progressively slowing the splits yet opening up on the far turn because no rivals were seriously firing. He finished up 4 1/4 lengths the best through a capable final eighth of :12.90, but he still strikes me as a wild card who's difficult to place in the pecking order. On the plus side, there is some 10-furlong pedigree promise with Empire Maker as his damsire, and Rock Your World doesn't figure strictly as a needs-the-lead threat based on two previous stalking wins on the turf.

10) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-3-0, $315,200.
Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30, 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6, 2nd GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 74

Medina Spirit is bound for Louisville off a best-of-the-rest second against a soft crew in the Santa Anita Derby as the 9-10 fave. His upside has always been that he's a hard trier who was a bargain buy ($1,000 OBSWIN and $35,000 OBSOPN), and this Protonico colt also stacks up numbers-wise as a Kentucky Derby candidate (four separate Beyers at 94+ as a 3-year-old). “He ran a game race like he always does,” trainer Bob Baffert said Sunday. “The winner was very impressive, but our horse showed up, he ran his race, he came out of it well and we've got four weeks to sharpen him up.”

11) REBEL'S ROMANCE (IRE) (Dubawi {Ire}–Minidress {GB}, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Godolphin (IRE). T-Charles Appleby. Lifetime Record: GSW-UAE, 5-4-0-0, $549,879.
Last Starts: 1st G2 UAE Derby, MEY, Mar. 27
Next Start: Possible for GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100

This Godolphin homebred by Dubawi (Ire) is a slow breaker, but once this large-framed gelding ramps up to cruising speed, his appeal is evident. He circled the field to paste an okay group in the UAE Derby by open lengths, has won under both 131 and 135 pounds as a 2-year-old, and he does have dirt experience. Since 2000, 11 winners of the UAE Derby have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby, and the best finish among them was sixth (along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try).

12) HELIUM (c, 3, Ironicus–Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch)
O-D J Stable LLC; B-Teneri Farm Inc & Bernardo Alvarez Calderon (KY); T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $55,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $287,763.
Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 1st Display S., WO, Oct. 18
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

The 3-for-3 winner of the Tampa Bay Derby will attempt to go 56 days between starts to win the Kentucky Derby. How unconventional is that? Regret won the 1915 Derby off a 259-day break. Sir Barton won the 1919 Derby off a 238-day rest. Since 1929 (the advent of more complete records), the longest winning layoff for a regularly scheduled Derby was 42 days, equaled by Needles in 1956 and Animal Kingdom in 2011. And last year, when the pandemic forced the Derby to September, Authentic won it off a 49-day break. Trainer Mark Casse is generally known as a savvy layoff conditioner, and over the last five years he's won with layoffs of 31-60 days at a 17% clip. But when you drill down that stat to look at Casse's layoffs during that same time-away frame for starters at 10 furlongs or greater, the strike rate plummets to 1-for-56. Although this $55,000 FTKOCT colt by Ironicus is up against the grain of historical convention, the fact that he is tactically versatile and not locked into a certain running style (he's won on the lead, stalking, and closing) should stand him in good stead in a 20-horse race. Julien Leparoux will ride in the Derby.

Potentially rounding out the starting gate…

13) Mandaloun (Into Mischief): After starting his career with some spark at 3-for-4, this 'TDN Rising Star' was a punchless sixth as the beaten favorite in his final prep race. “We're going to press forward straight to the Kentucky Derby,” trainer Brad Cox said last week. “He's a good colt, and I really don't know what to make of his Louisiana Derby.” Cox added that Mandaloun came out of the race in good order, and he has confidence this Juddmonte homebred's stout pedigree will rise to the occasion going 10 furlongs.

14) Soup and Sandwich (Into Mischief): Live Oak homebred took heat on the lead in the Florida Derby then stuck around late in the lane, running second behind Known Agenda. “I was very pleased, especially if he ever learns what he's doing,” trainer Mark Casse said post-race. “[Jockey] Johnny [Velazquez] said he had to fight with him a little. He stayed on his left lead all the way down the stretch. He's like that in the morning, too.”

15) Dynamic One (Into Mischief): His runner-up try in the GII Wood Memorial S. might have represented a better run than the winner's considering it was just the first start outside the maiden ranks for this $725,000 KEESEP colt. He was wide on both turns and just got pipped at the wire, earning the same 89 Beyer as the horse who beat him by a head.

16) Bourbonic (Bernardini): This Calumet homebred lobbed a 72-1 bomb into the Derby mix with a perfectly timed last-to-first move to steal the Wood Memorial in the final jump. But the final clocking of 1:54.49 was the slowest in the race's history and also the slowest of three consecutive nine-furlong races run Saturday at Aqueduct.

17) Hidden Stash (Constitution): This $50,000 KEESEP colt is currently on the outside looking in points-wise (No. 23 on the qualifying list), and his connections were non-committal about a Derby start after his Blue Grass fourth. I do like the fact that he was the only one gaining in the stretch of his two Tampa stakes; he's also won and has run third in two starts at Churchill. Hidden Stash is weak in the numbers category though, with an 83 Beyer twice being his lifetime best.

18) Rombauer (Twirling Candy): Fradkin homebred is currently 21st in qualifying points, so he's right on the cusp. Got bumped by the winner out of the gate in the Blue Grass, but it didn't really hamper his trip. He's run a faster Beyer in every consecutive start over six races, but would enter the Derby never having won on dirt (turf and Tapeta victories only).

19) Hosier (Pioneerof the Nile): Baffert-trained $625,000 FTSAUG colt goes in this weekend's Arkansas Derby. He owns a 1-for-3 lifetime record, with both losses at the hands of No. 3-ranked Concert Tour. Will face his stablemate again on Saturday in search of points and momentum to punch his ticket to Louisville.

20) Like the King (Palace Malice): Big, rangy colt ($28,000 KEENOV, $170,000 OBSOCT) has never been off the board in six lifetime tries but has been beaten by large margins in only two dirt attempts.

The post The TDN Derby Top 20 for April 6 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

TDN Derby Top 12 for Mar. 30

We're on the cusp of the one-month mark to the GI Kentucky Derby, and this Saturday marks the most important weekend of nine-furlong preps on the Triple Crown calendar, with significant stakes at Santa Anita, Keeneland, and Aqueduct. Next week, the Top 12 expands to the Top 20 as the race for qualifying points intensifies and the actual field begins to take shape.

1) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 7-3-1-3, $422,440.
Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27, 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP. Jan. 30
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 80

Greatest Honour has not been dethroned from his top ranking despite a so-so third as the 4-5 fave in the GI Florida Derby because he's still the horse to beat over 10 furlongs with a more robust pace in front of him. Since he burst into the Top 12, I've been cautioning that it can be tactically dangerous to fall in love with a deep closer as your Derby horse because late runners are so often at the mercy of traffic. That exact scenario worked against this Tapit-sired Courtlandt Farms homebred on Saturday, when jockey Jose Ortiz tried to follow the rail trip of eventual winner Known Agenda (Curlin), but instead had his momentum halted three times when hemmed in on the backstretch and on the far turn. Greatest Honour got pelted with kickback and briefly had to pause at the heels of several rivals before tipping out for a belated rally that lacked true spark. Ortiz wisely didn't hammer on his horse when it was obvious Greatest Honour wasn't in it to win it down the lane, and we should expect to see the tightest version yet of this long-striding stayer by the time trainer Shug McGuaghey gets him to Louisville.

2) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,785,144.
Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6, 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 3
Next Start: GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40

The undefeated juvenile champ closed as the 4-1 favorite Sunday in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. This Tapit-sired 'TDN Rising Star' and Godolphin homebred is a high-energy stalker who has demonstrated an adept level of comfort both pressing the pace and rating from farther back. But he's yet to encounter a serious, multi-pronged, deep-stretch challenge in any of his victories, and thus far he's been superior enough that jockey Luis Saez has been able to park him outside and in the clear, giving up ground so as not to encounter traffic. That strategy might not work in a crowded 20-horse race like the Derby. But then again, elite-level horses make their own breaks, and in-race agility is very much on the side of this athletic gray. As of this writing, no other Top 12 horses are listed as probables for Saturday's GII Blue Grass S., and Essential Quality figures to go off as one of the heavier prep-race favorites we've seen this spring. He's already won twice at Keeneland going long (albeit over the short-stretch configuration that ends at the sixteenth pole). But we're now going on 30 years since the last winner of the Blue Grass–Strike the Gold in 1991–parlayed that win into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May. In that interim, however, three horses–Street Sense in 2007, Thunder Gulch in 1995 and Sea Hero in 1993–lost the Blue Grass in their final Derby tune-up then won in Louisville.

3) CONCERT TOUR (c, Street Sense–Purse Strings, by Tapit)
O/B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $756,600.
Last Start: 1st GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 6
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

The pace scenario in the Arkansas Derby figures to be one of the more intriguing tactical matchups of the Triple Crown prep season. The last time the two likely favorites met, in the GII Rebel S., Concert Tour outbroke Caddo River and Caddo River gave up the rail and the lead to let him go, but then looked uncomfortable and rank and never engaged when asked for run on the far turn. Will the two 'TDN Rising Stars' hook up from the outset in a committed duel in the Arkansas Derby? Or will jockey Joel Rosario turn the tables and opt out of a kamikaze confrontation? Concert Tour looked pretty confident bounding along at a measured clip on the lead in the Rebel, but the style of his run didn't stamp him as a needs-the-lead type of horse. At 3-for-3 lifetime and with two of those wins in sprints, Concert Tour will still be light on experience over a distance of ground in the Arkansas Derby. But his Street Sense (out of a Tapit mare) breeding line should be stout enough to allay any concerns he'll hit a wall at nine furlongs. Favorites have crossed the finish wire first in the Arkansas Derby for five straight runnings, including split divisions in 2020 (when there was a subsequent drug positive DQ).

4) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB})
O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-1-1, $541,700.
Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 102

Known Agenda has now bested No. 1-ranked Greatest Honour twice in head-to-head matchups and his Florida Derby win demonstrated marked progression and an increased level of midpack stalking comfort while racing in blinkers for the second time. He now has a stamina-centric base of three victories over nine furlongs, and trainer Todd Pletcher said Sunday that this $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG “came back in great shape [with] good energy.” Known Agenda and Greatest Honour both opted for rail trips in the Florida Derby, but this colt is a touch quicker out of the gate and attained a more prominent placement, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was able to deftly guide Known Agenda through tight passages that closed by the time Greatest Honour attempted to follow him. A three-wide move off the turn put Known Agenda in charge through the lane; he wandered out under left-handed stickwork yet responded ably when roused (although it should be noted that the only rival he had to truly run down was a 12-1 shot who had been softened up in the pace duel and was on his left lead through the stretch). “I've been pleased with the way he's been able to get a better position in the race and improve his position going along. We've always had a strong feeling that added distance was going to be to his liking,” said Pletcher.

5) HOT ROD CHARLIE (c, Oxbow–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
O-Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing LLC & William Strauss; B-Edward A Cox (KY); T-Doug O'Neill. Sales history: $17,000 Ylg '19 FTKFEB; $110,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-1-2, $1,005,700.
Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6; 3rd GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110

At some point in late April, jockey Joel Rosario–currently leading the continent in both earnings and graded stakes wins–is going to have to choose between two live Derby mounts, Concert Tour and Hot Rod Charlie. If Rosario opts off of this two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT), jockey Flavien Prat could wind up with the ride. “This is the time of year where the jockeys are jockeying, literally, for their best chance to win the Derby,” Bill Strauss, a co-owner of Hot Rod Charlie, told the San Diego Union-Tribune over the weekend. He added that his partnership has been keeping contact with Prat, the runaway leader in wins and earnings at the current Santa Anita meet, and he noted that Prat rode this Oxbow colt back in September when Hot Rod Charlie was fifth, beaten 3 1/4 lengths, in a Del Mar grass MSW. “With those two, it's like, do you want [Babe] Ruth or [Joe] DiMaggio?” Strauss quipped. “You'd rather have the guy that's faced the same pitcher, though. Experience on the horse is invaluable.” So is proficiency in the Derby itself: Prat has ridden in three Derbies, placing third in 2017 aboard 40-1 Battle of Midway, and crossing the wire second but getting elevated to first via DQ on 65-1 Country House in 2019.

6) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-2-0, $196,092.
Last Start: 5th GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10

The Kentucky Derby is the ultimate goal for every Top 12 contender, but don't overlook the fact that the Arkansas Derby always figured to be high on the wish list of this colt's connections. This Hard Spun homebred races in the colors of Shortleaf Stable, the outfit run by Hot Springs native John Ed Anthony. Formerly racing as Loblolly Stable, Anthony has won the Arkansas Derby a record three times, with Temperence Hill in 1980, Demons Begone in 1987, and Pine Bluff in 1992 (the latter two were half-brothers). This 'TDN Rising Star' who just hit his third birthday Mar. 29 is a speed-centric threat, but after Caddo River handed the lead to Concert Tour in the Rebel S., he refused to settle and spent most of his energy fighting the rider down the backstretch before suffering a self-inflicted meltdown turning for home. That subpar performance has a “too bad to be true” aura to it though, and it's definitely not in line with the poised and professional appeal that Caddo River flashed earlier in the winter. This colt absolutely needs a qualifying points influx to make the traveling team to Louisville. Right now he's ranked 30th with 10.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-2-3, $461,420.
Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 2nd GIII Iroquois S., CD, Sept. 25, 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13, 3rd GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 66

If you like Derby contenders with ample seasoning, Midnight Bourbon should appeal to your taste. This $525,000 KEESEP colt by Tiznow out of a Malibu Moon mare has made seven starts, all at a mile or longer. Five were in graded stakes, and he's never finished worse than third while racking up Beyers of 93, 96 and 96 in starts at age three. But Midnight Bourbon has yet to unleash that breakthrough effort he seems capable of. He earned his maiden at Ellis Park in a race that yielded only one next-out winner from nine starters, and his GIII Lecomte S. score was achieved under an ideal pace scenario when Midnight Bourbon unexpectedly found himself on the lead with no pressure. This colt is a hard trier capable of digging in when challenged, but Hot Rod Charlie pasted him pretty solidly when they hooked up for the final 2 1/2 furlongs of the Louisiana Derby. Midnight Bourbon looms as a second-tier threat at this point. But if chaos reigns in the Derby, we at least know that he's fit enough to handle a distance of ground and has experienced a few stretch fights that may have toughened him up.

8) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $52,800.
Last Start: 1st Allowance/Opt. Clm., GP, Mar. 11
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence wowed in his 89-Beyer maiden debut on the GI Pegasus World Cup undercard (other next-out starters collectively 1-for-8), then got a useful allowance tightener at 1-10 odds when coasting home when under light encouragement in a Mar. 11 one-turn mile at Gulfstream. Now this Godolphin homebred will hit the road in search of Derby qualifying points in Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct, where he'll be making both his two-turn and stakes debuts while foregoing Lasix for the first time. “He's a very nice, quiet, easy-going horse and I don't think the travel will affect him at all,” trainer Brendan Walsh said. “We'll see how he handles the track. He hits me as a horse who can handle any kind of surface.”

9) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-2-0, $165,200.
Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 1st Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30, 2nd GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14

At 2-for-4 with a stakes win to his name, Medina Spirit's overachieving SoCal form looked pretty good in and of itself for a horse who twice sold at public auction for relatively short money ($1,000 OBSWIN and $35,000 OBSOPN). Then came last week's revelation from trainer Bob Baffert that this Protonico colt was discovered to have a slightly entrapped epiglottis and has recently had surgery to correct it. “Pretty impressive he still ran that well,” Baffert told DRF.com. “We scoped him after [the GII San Felipe Mar. 6]. Gave him a few extra days for it to clear up.” Medina Spirit has since twice worked well, firing one training bullet. His GIII Lewis S. wire job was notable for the way he took heat on the lead through swift splits, then never let another horse by him in a three-way fight that had him a neck in front at the wire. That performance took on added significance when third-place finisher Hot Rod Charlie wired the Louisiana Derby with a 99 Beyer next time out. Medina Spirit's only two losses were seconds behind now-sidelined stablemate and 'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good (Into Mischief), who had been ranked as high as No. 2 on the Derby Top 12 through mid-March.

10) REBEL'S ROMANCE (IRE) (Dubawi {Ire}–Minidress {GB}, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Godolphin (IRE). T-Charles Appleby. Lifetime Record: GSW-UAE, 5-4-0-0, $549,879.
Last Starts: 1st G2 UAE Derby, MEY, Mar. 27
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100

Rebel's Romance (Ire), a Godolphin homebred by Dubawi (Ire), has a Kentucky Derby berth if his connections opt to ship the UAE Derby winner (currently fourth in qualifying points with 100). This is a big gelding known as a slow breaker, and he at first looked out of touch at the back of the pack while careening six paths off the fence through the first turn at Meydan. Rebel's Romance settled on the backstretch run, then methodically began picking off half the pack with an outside swoop. Always making headway, he responded to rousing down the long home straight to win easily by open lengths. “He is still very much a work in progress and he looked much better tonight than he did in Saudi Arabia,” said trainer Charlie Appleby. “I think the biggest attribute to him today is that he was going to stay. We were always confident he was going to stay. Stepping up in trip was going to be his forte.”

11) HELIUM (c, 3, Ironicus–Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch)
O-D J Stable LLC; B-Teneri Farm Inc &
Bernardo Alvarez Calderon (KY); T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $55,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $287,763.
Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM,
Mar. 6. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 1st Display S., WO, Oct. 18
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50

Stabled at Palm Meadows in Florida and training up to the Kentucky Derby, the 15-1 winner of the GII Tampa Bay Derby had his first breeze since that victory on Saturday, going a half mile in :49.25 (17/58). This $55,000 FTKOCT (and subsequently privately purchased) first-crop Ironicus colt owns a 3-for-3 record while displaying a versatile running style, winning on the lead, while stalking, and from closing farther off the pace. At Tampa, Helium was four wide on both turns, got first run at the tiring pacemaker, then gamely held off a fresh closer late in the lane. While Helium will go eight weeks between starts, the third- fifth- and sixth-place horses who ran behind him in the Tampa Derby ran back on Saturday in stakes at Turfway and Gulfstream; two ran sixth, the other was eighth. Only one horse has ever parlayed wins in the Tampa/Kentucky Derbies—Street Sense in 2007. But Helium's maternal grandsire, Thunder Gulch, was the 1995 Derby winner, and Helium's odds in this year's Run for the Roses probably won't be too far off grandpa's juicy 24-1 price.

12) RISK TAKING (c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor)
O-Klaravich Stables Inc; B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (KY);
T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $240,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-0, $182,530.
Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 6
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10

The 2-for-4 Risk Taking was committed to the Wood Memorial soon after he won the GIII Withers S. when trainer Chad Brown articulated a desire to keep this $240,000 KEESEP bay racing over a track and distance at which the colt has demonstrated ability. But over the past 10 days or so, the list of probables for the Wood has morphed from a relatively shallow stakes to a fairly deep lineup that now includes No. 8-ranked Prevalence, a pair of Aqueduct stakes victors, the beaten fave in the Tampa Bay Derby, and maybe a West Coast invader. After Risk Taking won the Withers with a sweet stalking trip, Brown said “everyone that's touched the horse has commented about how classy he was, the ability that he has, and how he will get better with time and distance.” On Saturday, we'll find out.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Candy Man Rocket (Candy Ride {Arg}): Winner of the GIII Davis S. but beaten fave in the Tampa Bay Derby rerouted from Arkansas Derby to Wood Memorial on Saturday at Aqueduct.

Defunded (Dialed In): Impressive MSW sprint layoff winner for Baffert could resurface in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.

Hush of a Storm (Creative Cause) This New York-bred winner of the Battaglia S. scratched out of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks in favor of Saturday's Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

Like the King (Palace Malice): Big, rangy colt with affinity for turf and Tapeta survived foul claim to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks.

Soup and Sandwich (Into Mischief): Fought the pace battle and gallantly stuck around late in the lane despite being on his left lead through the stretch of the Florida Derby. Trainer Mark Casse also reported this gray got “a little worked up” shipping over from Palm Meadows. “He'll run a lot better out of his stall at Churchill Downs.”

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for Mar. 30 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

Verified by MonsterInsights