Derby Top 12 | Horse Racing Free Tips

TDN Derby 12 for Feb. 23

We're inside the 11-week mark to the GI Kentucky Derby, but still a month away from the important leap to races at nine furlongs or longer. Although there was no major upheaval within the rankings this week, we do have a new No 1. The subplots thicken as the cadence quickens.

1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-1-1, $301,100. Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 16.

Make no mistake: Newly top-ranked Classic Causeway didn't “inherit” the No. 1 rating on this list because the former kingpin, 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy), ran second over the weekend. Rather, Classic Causeway carved out his own spot atop the totem pole with a grace-under-pressure performance in the Feb. 12 GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa. Keen to make the pace, this Giant's Causeway homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper ripped through a :22.66 opening quarter, then toned down the middle fractions while being ceaselessly hounded but always exhibiting confident body language. Classic Causeway kicked for home with three legitimate threats right behind him, but spurted away under urging before unleashing a “Wow!” gear in deep stretch that punctuated a visually impressive final sixteenth in :5.98 (the only sub-six-seconds clocking among preps at 1 1/16 miles this season). The GII Tampa Bay Derby is next. Note that the Nos. 1 and 2 colts within the Top 12 exit the two most competitive individual preps we've witnessed so far in '22 (the Davis S. and the GII Risen Star S.), and they also hail from the key juvenile race from '21, the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., which has now produced three next-out graded stakes winners and one runner-up.

2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 30.

'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy's hard-charging second after enduring traffic in the Risen Star was respectable enough off a 12-week layoff to keep him in the upper tier of the Top 12. This son of Runhappy broke adeptly, settled capably when asked to rate, then secured a spot third from last entering the backstretch. From about the five-eighths pole to the three-eighths marker he was mildly pocketed but still patiently handled by Corey Lanerie. Midway through the turn it looked as if Lanerie was about to make his move outside, but he had to hit pause on that plan when the onrushing Zandon (Upstart) claimed the same path. Turning for home, Smile Happy was walled up with too much work to do, yet when Lanerie aimed for inside passage, his colt responded to rousing. But that burst of energy three-sixteenths out put Smile Happy on the heels of a caving Pappacap (Gun Runner), so Lanerie had to shift back outside before splitting horses and clearly gaining second at the eighth pole behind a good-as-gone winner. It only took two jumps after the wire for Smile Happy to gallop out abreast of the geared-down Epicenter (Not This Time), and the 94 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his runner-up effort adds to an upward-trending three-race arc.

3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A.

Trainer Bob Baffert texted “no plans yet” several days ago when asked for a next-race update. But history can provide a good guess as to where 'TDN Rising Star' Messier will show up following his romp in the GIII Bob Lewis S. on Feb. 5. Prior to Messier's win, Baffert had won the Lewis (or its predecessor, the Santa Catalina S.) nine times. Seven of those Lewis winners next started in the GII San Felipe S. in early March. Last year, Medina Spirit won the Lewis, then ran second in both the San Felipe and GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby before crossing the finish wire first in the Kentucky Derby. In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile won all three of those Santa Anita preps, then ran second in Louisville. Those efforts stand as the best two Derby performances by Baffert horses who took the Lewis-San Felipe route.

When a horse outclasses only four others by 15 lengths like Messier did in the Lewis, it can be difficult to discern how strong the effort really was. But make no mistake about the major-league 103 Beyer Speed Figure this $470,000 FTKSEL colt by Empire Maker unleashed–the only triple-digit Beyer by a 3-year-old in 2022.

This colt, like all Baffert trainees, remains ineligible to earn Derby qualifying points or to start at Churchill Downs because of Baffert's banishment by the track's corporate parent.

4) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $50,400. Last Start: 1st Tampa Bay Downs ALW. Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel will go next in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., and if all goes according to trainer Todd Pletcher's plan, the GI Curlin Florida Derby will be his final start before Louisville. This physically imposing son of More Than Ready has paired a 78-Beyer MSW wire job in a one-turn Gulfstream mile with an 89-Beyer front-running allowance score over a mile and 40 yards at Tampa. Although the field for the Fountain of Youth is still taking shape, right now only one other Top 12 contender is listed as a likely entrant. That means Emmanuel will almost certainly start as the favorite in a race that's recently been brutal to the chalk: Fountain of Youth faves have gone down in defeat in four of the last five editions, and have managed just three wins from the last 15 (including one demotion via disqualification). Still, with 1 1/16-mile races at Gulfstream starting so close to the first turn and finishing in a short-stretch configuration, you'd have to think Emmanuel's pure speed and demonstrated fondness for the surface might erase any concerns about the negative trend for faves.

5) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 12.

Pletcher recently told TDN that “the [GII] Wood Memorial [S.] is the 100-point race that we've got him targeted for since he won the [GII] Remsen [S.] at Aqueduct.” The only question, he explained, is whether or not this $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo will get another start between now and that Apr. 9 New York race.

In the GIII Holy Bull S., Mo Donegal was a beaten favorite while suffering the most glaring adverse trip among top Derby contenders so far this season. Riding a closer by nature, Irad Ortiz Jr. wasted a lot of lateral movement going from the rail on the first turn to the five path on the backstretch, only to attempt another blocked inside bid on the far turn before being directing his colt widest of all for a belated drive to the wire.

As Pletcher termed it, “everything kind of unfolded the wrong way for him and it took him a while to get out in the clear and able to make his run. It was the kind of effort we were hoping for, even though it wasn't the result we were wanting.”

6) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next start: Possible for GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

Zandon's trip to New Orleans for a prep race was exactly that–a useful preparatory effort for an overall goal that is 2 1/2 months down the road. This $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart broke in the air and was relegated to last in the early stages while tugging at the bit. He settled four off the rail for the back straight, then uncorked a methodical march while widest on the far turn that built momentum into a sustained three-furlong run. It appeared as if Zandon might have been losing steam at the sixteenth pole, but the colt re-engaged when he sensed a rival to his inside, digging in to win a head-bob for third.

Considering the shipping, racing under the lights, and having to square off against a much tougher crew, that's not a bad effort for a third career race. Zandon's Beyers are competitive and moving in the right direction (80, 90, 93), and trainer Chad Brown told DRF that the Apr. 9 Blue Grass (recently reinstated as a Grade I), is the next likely target.

7) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $410,639. Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 64.

Epicenter knows his job is to go straight to the front and establish control, and he executed that task effectively in Saturday's Risen Star over nine furlongs. Jockey Joel Rosario (and everyone else) knew this $260,000 KEESEP colt had the race wrapped up after cresting the eighth pole, and Epicenter's 98 Beyer, which he garnered by cranking out even-tempoed splits of :23.79, :24.18, :24.28, :24.33 and :12.45, establishes this son of Not This Time as a legit Louisville contender.

But in fairness, Epicenter's no-mishap win has to be juxtaposed against the trip duress suffered by the two well-backed horses who chased him through the stretch. Would he have won if both Smile Happy and Zandon had gotten clean runs at him? We've already seen that Epicenter has the physical and mental fortitude to hold off a wall of horses at the top of the lane, like he did when second in the GIII Lecomte S. And had he not gotten pipped at the final jump by an out-of-the-clouds long shot in that January race, Epicenter would otherwise be riding a four-race win streak into the GII Louisiana Derby.

Epicenter | Hodges Photography/Amanda Hodges Weir

8) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.

Even though he's two-for-two, Early Voting's relatively high Top 12 ranking isn't based so much on what he's accomplished so far as what he might be able to deliver. He's a late developer who has demonstrated improved conditioning, confidence and mental seasoning with races under his belt. So when and at what distance will this $200,000 KEESEP buy peak? That's a question everyone who owns a son or daughter of leading first-crop-sire Gun Runner wants answered.

His Beyers don't tell us much: Early Voting's 76 and 78 are both below-par for elite-level Derby contenders. But those numbers were both earned over dull-ish winter surfaces at Aqueduct (although the Beyers are designed to adjust for the nature of the surface). This colt's 4 1/2-length wiring of the GIII Withers S. field earned black type, but his MSW score in a one-turn mile actually comes off as the more impressive try.

Favored at 4-5, Early Voting pressed outside in a three-way duel, cracked one rival with sustained pressure, sparred with the other before dispatching him on the far turn, then capably repulsed a fresh run from the stalking second choice who had built up winning momentum through the stretch.

9) NEWGRANGE (c, Violence–Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker) O-Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, SF Racing LLC, Siena Farm LLC, Starlight Racing, Stonestreet Stables, LLC, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan, Robert E. Masterson & Jay A. Schoenfarber. B-Jack Mandato & Black Rock Thoroughbreds (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $125,000 yrl '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $552,000. Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S. Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Feb. 26. KY Derby Points: N/A.

The three-for-three Newgrange headlines Saturday's GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn, which this year is newly positioned as a late-February prep because of Oaklawn's earlier-than-usual Apr. 2 scheduling of the GI Arkansas Derby. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the last two Rebels and eight of the previous 13. But prior to Nadal's win in 2020, he saddled beaten favorites in four straight runnings (counting split divisions in '19).

This $125,000 KEESEP colt had to be really pushed along on the far turn before finishing with interest to win the GIII Southwest S., and Baffert said afterward that jockey John Velazquez told him Newgrange might not have been handling the track. Since then, the connections of several Southwest also-rans have similarly described that day's surface as being cuppy and deep in the aftermath of very cold weather, which could explain why some runners didn't care for it, and why Newgrange only earned a one-point Beyer bump off his previous effort (88 to 89).

We've now seen him wire fields and win from off the pace, so Newgrange is tactically versatile; being able to run well despite not really liking the footing also shows he doesn't need everything his own way to win.

10) RATTLE N ROLL (c, Connect–Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg) O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-St. Simon Place (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $55,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $210,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-0-1, $379,460. Last Start: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity. Next Start: Probable for GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 10.

If Rattle N Roll goes Mar. 5 in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., that will represent a 21-week layoff since his 81-Beyer GI Breeders' Futurity S. score. Over the last five years, trainer Ken McPeek has won at a 16% clip with layoffs between 120 and 180 days. If you drill down to look at only the subset of 3-year-old males within those parameters, he is two for 20. There are pluses and minuses to this $55,000 KEENOV and $210,000 KEESEP colt's Grade I win last fall. On the pro side, he displayed a high level of comfort while racing covered up midpack before launching a prolonged winning bid three furlongs out, beating No. 1-ranked Classic Causeway in the process. On the con side, Rattle N Roll really only had to outrun stragglers over a short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles, and with the exception of Classic Causeway, not a single horse out of that Keeneland stakes has subsequently won a race.

11) MAJOR GENERAL (c, Constitution–No Mo Lemons, by Uncle Mo) O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Circular Road Breeders (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $265,000 ylg '20 KEEJAN; $420,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $232,525. Last Start: 1st GIII Iroquois S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 10.

They say if you wait long enough, everything cycles back into vogue again. Way back on Sept. 18, Major General won the very first qualifying points race for the '22 Derby, the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill. He was then shelved, but this Constitution colt's two-for-two record was good enough to get him listed on January's first installment of the Top 12. He was a little bit behind in training and thus got leapfrogged in the rankings, but now with seven published breezes and three straight bullet workouts, his stock is rising again.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has this $265,000 KEEJAN and $420,000 KEESEP colt humming along under the radar in preparation for a likely start in the Tampa Bay Derby. His Iroquois win earned grittiness points because Major General overcame a bobble at the start before unwinding with an all-business move 3 1/2 furlongs out. He gamely traded bumps with the favorite in upper stretch, then still had enough gas late to fend off an onrushing closer to win by a neck.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $240,850. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 12.

Efficiency, athleticism and an affinity for the Gulfstream racing surface all play in White Abarrio's favor as he points for the Florida Derby. This speed-centric Race Day colt ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) owns three open-length wins at Gulfstream, and his only loss to date was a credible third at Churchill behind heavy hitters Classic Causeway and Smile Happy. But similar to what was discussed in Epicenter's write-up, in terms of the bigger Derby picture, it's legit to question how much of White Abarrio's win in the Holy Bull S. was attributable to this colt's own prowess, or to him being able to sail clear on the front end while the top four favorites behind him all endured various forms of in-race adversity. Having said that, his 97 Beyer merits respect. Only two sophomores have run a better number this year: Messier's 103 and Epicenter's 98.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Belgrade (Hard Spun): Bought for $45,000 at FTKSEL and just sold for $700,000 last month at KEEJAN, this H. Graham Motion trainee is two-for-two with wins at Fair Grounds and Tampa, and could be the sleeper in the Tampa Bay Derby, a stakes that has been won by horses with odds of 8-1 or higher in each of the last four runnings.

Blackadder (Quality Road): Nice surge late from this $620,000 KEESEP colt to catch his Baffert stablemate napping in the late stages of the El Camino Real Derby.

Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute): Lecomte S. upsetter's form got shored up when the horse he caught at the wire, Epicenter, came back to wire the Risen Star S. Four-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $37,0000 RNA KEESEP; $17,000 OBSOCT; $80,000 OBSMAR) prepping for the Louisiana Derby.

Charge It (Tapit): Whisper Hill Farm homebred named a 'TDN Rising Star' in start number two for Pletcher when a daylight winner in a one-turn MSW mile at Gulfstream. Lots of options for a new graduate, but the Derby clock is ticking.

In Due Time (Not This Time): This three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) fired a bullet breeze last Friday off a 92-Beyer allowance win by open lengths.

The post TDN Derby 12 for Feb. 23 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12 for Feb. 8

We're inside the three-month mark to the GI Kentucky Derby. The Top 12 portfolio has been re-balanced by culling highly rated contenders who have yet to post published workouts in 2022. So 'TDN Rising Stars' Corniche (Quality Road) and Jack Christopher (Munnings) are out, and new shooters who emerged from this past weekend's trio of stakes have rushed forward to fill the gap. Nature abhors a vacuum–and so do Derby lists.

1) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $284,810. Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Next Start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy, the highest-priced of 45 Runhappy yearlings to sell at auction in 2020 ($185,000 FTKSEL), remains on target to headline the Feb. 19 GII Risen Star S. at the Fair Grounds. This past Saturday, this physically imposing colt tracked and blew by an unraced workmate in a :59.52 five-eighths breeze (2/24) at Gulfstream Park. A few hours later, Smile Happy's form upticked when White Abarrio (Race Day), who had run third behind Smile Happy in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., won the GIII Holy Bull S. by open lengths with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure.

Although light on experience, the 2-for-2 Smile Happy scores highly in terms of maturity. Both this colt's maiden win (big far-turn move) and subsequent stakes romp (menacing mid-pack stalk) earned style points as visually arresting performances. Although Smile Happy's sire was the 2015 champion sprinter, his dam sire, Pleasant Tap, was resilient at distances up to 10 furlongs. He was third in the 1990 Derby, then second in the '91 GI Breeders' Cup Sprint. Pleasant Tap then stretched out and won champion older horse honors in '92, beating both A.P. Indy and Strike the Gold in the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup (before running a gallant second to A.P. Indy in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic).

2) PAPPACAP (c, Gun Runner–Pappascat, by Scat Daddy) O/B-Rustlewood Farm, Inc. (FL). T-Mark E. Casse. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 6-2-2-1, $596,000. Last Start: 3rd GIIII Lecomte S. Next Start: Next start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 14.

Trainer Mark Casse told Daily Racing Form last week that Tyler Gaffalione will replace Joe Bravo as Pappacap's jockey for the Risen Star S. Feb. 19. That's an understandable move: Bravo is 3-for-21 for Casse in limited action over the last five years, and he hasn't won for the barn since Pappacap's last victory Aug. 7 in the GII Best Pal S. at Del Mar. Gaffalione, on the other hand, has ridden more than 400 horses for Casse over that same time frame, garnering a steady 17% win clip.

This hard-trying son of Gun Runner looked primed to pounce, but couldn't seal the deal when third in the Jan. 22 GIII Lecomte S. But the bet here is the stout run he uncorked from upper stretch to the final 50 yards did Pappacap more good than it might appear on paper. With six races under his belt, it's apparent this homebred for Rustlewood Farm is an alert breaker who displays a high level of comfort stalking in covered-up positions, and he has already shown he can launch multiple in-race moves coupled with a determined ability to dig in when rivals close in on him. But we're now past the six-month mark since Pappacap last saw the winner's circle, and he won't be able to rely on the street cred of his 15-1 runner-up try in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile much longer if he doesn't figure out how to translate all those positive attributes into winning efforts.

3) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-1, $181,100. Last Start: 2nd GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Next Start: GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 12. KY Derby Points: 6.

Classic Causeway's training pattern at Palm Meadows has extended all the way up to six- and seven-furlong breezes so far this winter, noticeably different than the more commonplace workload of four- and five-furlong moves posted by his peers. The heft of his juvenile races–a 90-Beyer, 6 1/2-length winning sprint debut at the Spa; a third when forcing the pace from post 13 in a Grade I Keeneland route; then second behind Smile Happy in the Kentucky Jockey Club S.–will likely be enough to earn this Giant's Causeway colt favoritism in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa on Saturday. This homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper will be trying to erase a recent run of bad luck for the chalk in that Tampa prep: The last four faves (and five of the last six) have lost the Davis, including the presumptive 2021 Horse of the Year Knicks Go (Paynter), who was off the board in the 2019 edition.

4) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A.

When you win by 15 lengths and post a 103 Beyer in your sophomore debut, it's good enough to leapfrog two-thirds of the field to land in the Top 12. 'TDN Rising Star' Messier, a $470,000 FTKSEL colt by Empire Maker, broke running from the rail in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. and withstood steady pace pressure (:23.24 and :23.70 for the first two opening quarters) from two outside rivals while always dictating the cadence of the three-way go. He put away one rival seven-sixteenths out and let the other linger until the quarter pole before drawing away with assurance at the top of the lane.

Blinkers had been removed from Messier after an odds-on defeat in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity, but jockey John Velazquez didn't think the equipment change is what sparked Messier's rebound.

“It was just the way the race set up. I'm in post one and I don't want to give the lead to them in front of me, then they slow down in front of my face and I can't get out of there,” Velazquez said. “I'm not going to chase them, but I'm going to let him get his legs underneath of him. If they want to go faster, they can go faster and I don't have to be on his mouth….It was a strategy that worked.”

Because Bob Baffert is currently barred by Churchill Downs from participating in the Derby and his trainees can't earn qualifying points, Messier is currently a “ghost contender” in Churchill's official rankings. Here within TDN's own Top 12, Baffert's 3-year-olds will remain listed for the time being based on the merits of the horses themselves while the Derby status decision appears headed for litigation.

5) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $31,800. Last Start: 1st Tampa Bay Downs ALW. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel turned in an appealing one-turn-mile win in his Dec. 11 Gulfstream unveiling, and trainer Todd Pletcher strongly believed that this More Than Ready colt needed to make his two-turn debut in an allowance race instead of a stakes. So he shipped Emmanuel to Tampa for that schooling, and the 3-to-10 favorite delivered as expected Jan. 30, winning by a comfortable 4 1/2 lengths while not having to truly extend himself. On the lead throughout (and racing with Lasix for the first time), Emmanuel got away with a pedestrian :25.03 opening quarter in that mile and 40 yards race, then ramped up the tempo under light restraint, posting a second quarter in :24.65 and a third in a more racehorse-like :23.92 with three closers on his heels at the quarter pole. One of them briefly seized the lead between calls in upper stretch, but Emmanuel responded instantly by snatching back the top spot and accelerating fluidly with plenty of power in reserve (89 Beyer). His wins over both of Florida's main-track surfaces put the Mar. 5 GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. and the Mar. 12 GII Tampa Bay Derby in play as possible next-race options.

6) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 12.

Considering he was a closer on Gulfstream's short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles races, Mo Donegal was an ill-advised favorite in the Holy Bull S. on Saturday. But he ran well enough (in spots) to spark speculation about what this $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo might be able to do under less arduous trip circumstances. Irad Ortiz Jr. worked to get him positioned at the fence while a midpack fifth through the first turn, then went on the drift all the way out to the five path as soon as they turned onto the backstretch in search of better running room. They didn't find it, and this colt gradually became boxed in, necessitating Ortiz to thread back inside to the two path entering the far turn. When that decision also failed to yield an express lane, Mo was once again shifted outside, directed widest of all for the drive. Initially, the administration of right-handed stick work didn't inspire Mo at all, and a couple of lefts sent him veering to the eight path in upper stretch. But a sixteenth from the finish, even though the winner was well clear, something clicked for Mo, and he responded, digging in with renewed interest to shoot alongside the runner-up, just barely getting pipped for the place photo. “The last hundred yards he was making up a lot of ground. He just kind of ran out of real estate at the end,” said trainer Todd Pletcher.

7) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.

Early Voting is emerging as a speed-centric threat whose specialty is sustained intensity. Rather than blitzing his rivals with an all-out frontal assault, this $200,000 KEESEP colt torques them into submission, grinding away with metronomic efficiency. His 2-for-2 start is even more impressive when you factor in his debut score was accomplished over what trainer Chad Brown termed as a “dead” track, and how Saturday's GIII Withers S. wire job came over what jockey Jose Ortiz said was a “tiring” muddy surface.

By Gun Runner out of a Tiznow mare, Early Voting was sent for speed at the break and willingly spearheaded the field. Although he faced only mild pace pressure early, he gave the impression of being able to power away at will, and after opening up incrementally on the backstretch, it was only by the far turn that the laborious nature of the surface begin to show in his stride. Kept to task through the lane, Early Voting stayed on capably despite some late drifting while clear of minor threats to win by 4 1/2 lengths.

The splits for nine furlongs (:23.57, :24.47, :26.25, 27:46 for the first four quarters, then :14.15 for the final eighth) are more telling of the toiling nature of the track than the capability of the winner; his so-so 78 Beyer might also be a bit skewed in relation to his true talent. Considering Early Voting is undefeated at Aqueduct, the GII Wood Memorial Apr. 9 has to be considered a strong next-race option.

8) NEWGRANGE (c, Violence–Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker)O-Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, SF Racing LLC, Siena Farm LLC, Starlight Racing, Stonestreet Stables, LLC, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan, Robert E. Masterson & Jay A. Schoenfarber. B-Jack Mandato & Black Rock Thoroughbreds (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $125,000 yrl '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $552,000. Last Star: 1st GIII Southwest S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A.

Newgrange displayed a new dimension when scoring via stalk mode in the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn. But given the primo, trouble-free setup he enjoyed behind two long-shot speedsters, this 3-for-3 Violence colt (with zero Derby qualifying points) made the task more difficult than it needed to be. He popped out of the 10-hole alertly and was not hard-used to attain the lead; rather, John Velazquez let Newgrange watch the backstretch action percolate while five or six paths off the rail. A half-mile out, Johnny V. allowed a couple of mid-race movers to pulse through inside, but by the far turn this $125,000 KEESEP colt had to be pushed along with unexpected urgency. Once he got rolling, Newgrange appeared well-positioned to inhale the pacemakers with a four-wide sweep at the head of the lane, but he faltered for a few strides turning for home. Velazquez eventually figured out a workable rhythm in deep stretch, allowing Newgrange to finally grind past his outclassed rivals. Trainer Bob Baffert later said Newgrange might have been having difficulty handling the purportedly cuppy surface early in the race. The 89 Beyer represents a one-point advance over his GIII Sham S. score.

9) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $99,500. Last Start: 2nd GII Remsen S. Next start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 4.

This $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart has been re-aimed for the Risen Star S. after his connections opted to pass on the Holy Bull S. this past Saturday. The obvious positives in favor of shipping Zandon to the Fair Grounds include the extra half-furlong over a longer home straight, plus more Derby qualifying points. Potential negatives include having to travel away from Zandon's home base in Florida and the fact that trainer Chad Brown told the Blood-Horse last week that he's “a little more uncomfortable” about having to wait until Feb. 19 with a colt that is “ready to run now.” The Risen Star will equate to a 78-day layoff since Zandon ran second in the GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct. Over the last five years, Brown is 4-for-13 with 3-year-old males in nine-furlong or greater races returning off layoffs between 70 and 90 days. He also rarely ships to New Orleans. Brown's record at the Fair Grounds since 2017 is 1-for-4, all of them grass stakes.

10) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-2-1-0, $170,639. Last Start: 2nd GIII Lecomte S. Next Start: Aiming for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 14.

Epicenter's loss by a head in the Lecomte S. told us more about him than the two victories that preceded it. This $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time established control, turned back a wall of horses off the final turn, won a prolonged stretch fight with the favorite, then just got nailed at the wire by an out-of-the-clouds 28-1 shot. He had to juggle multiple tasks and handled himself admirably in a narrow defeat.

In his previous win, the Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, Epicenter sparred with the speed, then drew off without facing any serious stretch challenge.

Rivals running back out of that Dec. 26 stakes are now 0-for-3, and the maidens who ran behind Epicenter in his Nov. 13 MSW score at Churchill are a collective next-out 1-for-8, so his company lines aren't exactly brimming with winners. Steve Asmussen has him on track for the Risen Star S., a race the trainer won with Gun Runner (2016) and Pyro (2008).

11) RATTLE N ROLL (c, Connect–Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg) O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-St. Simon Place (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $55,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $210,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-0-1, $379,460. Last Start: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.

Rattle N Roll is edging close enough to a comeback (the Tampa Bay Derby is a possibility) to merit a foothold within the Top 12. Trainer Kenny McPeek last year compared this $55,000 KEENOV and $210,000 KEESEP colt favorably to grand-sire Curlin, and a shared trait of poise shone through in Rattle N Roll's comfortable uncoiling from midpack to run off with the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. by 4 1/4 lengths. A left hind foot abscess kept him out of the Breeders' Cup, and he's now three Gulfstream breezes into being race-ready.

White Abarrio is an efficient-moving, athletic gray who clearly has an affinity for Gulfstream, where he's 3-for-3 with combined win margins of 15 1/4 lengths. He also benefitted immensely from an ideal tactical setup in the GIII Holy Bull S. Although it's not his fault that the four horses who were bet lower than White Abarrio's 6-1 all suffered some sort of trip adversity that kept them from firing their best shots, those circumstances have to be taken into account when assessing whether this Race Day colt ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR; privately purchased after his debut win) is a Derby threat.

Then again, White Abarrio's impressive 97 Beyer might end up speaking for itself. Hustled out of the gate, he applied pressure at the vulnerable flank of a 19-1 pacemaker just out of the maiden ranks, taking over midway through the far turn. By the time White Abarrio was being set down and kept to task in upper stretch, the favorite had already been blocked and boxed, the second fave had blown the break, the third choice reportedly displaced his soft palate, and the fourth was getting pelted with kickback in an unsuccessful turf-to-dirt transition. All that meant White Abarrio faced only belated bids while coasting home on a short-stretch configuration that played to his advantage. A more seasoned cast of contenders and an extra half-furlong await in the GI Curlin Florida Derby.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute): This $59 winner rallied to collar a softened pacemaker at the last jump in the GIII Lecomte S. As per Daily Racing Form, trainer Keith Desormeaux is now on the fence between the Risen Star S. and the GII Louisiana Derby for this four-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV, $37,0000 RNA KEESEP, $17,000 OBSOCT, $80,000 OBSMAR).

Giant Game (Giant's Causeway): This $500,000 FTKSEL colt had a no-excuse stalking trip for three-quarters of the Holy Bull S., then plummeted through the pack. As per a twitter post by co-owner West Point Thoroughbreds, he reportedly displaced his soft palate.

God of Love (Cupid): Two-time Woodbine stakes victor and three-time auction buy ($77,000 KEENOV; $9,000 KEESEP; $100,000 OBSMAR) could be the wild card of Saturday's Sam Davis at Tampa (entries taken Wednesday) after winter weather necessitated a rerouting from New York's Withers S. last weekend.

In Due Time (Not This Time): Not too many 92-Beyer allowance winners by 5 3/4 lengths at Gulfstream go off at 10-1 odds. Trainer Kelly Breen said “all options are open” for this three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR).

Major General (Constitution): The 2-for-2 winner of the Sept. 18 Iroquois S. at Churchill ($265.000 KEEJAN; $420,000 KEESEP) could resurface for his '22 debut in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. for trainer Pletcher.

Slow Down Andy (Nyquist): Did he catch Messier at a vulnerable time in that colt's development in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity or is this Reddam homebred the real deal, Derby-wise? His upcoming trip to New Orleans for the Risen Star should help answer that.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for Feb. 8 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 25

We're about to tear the January page off the calendar, a ritual that signals a welcome thaw in the prep schedule for the GI Kentucky Derby. Over the next two weekends there will be four qualifying points stakes from coast to coast. Here's who's hot (and not) heading into February.

Smile Happy has brawn, natural speed, ahead-of-his-peers mental maturity, and “swagger factor” on his side. But they don't drape a blanket of roses across your back on the first Saturday in May just for checking a lot of boxes on the desirability list. This son of Runhappy needs racing experience to flesh out his authoritative two-for-two record as a juvenile, and trainer Ken McPeek has now settled on the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds over 1 1/8 miles for Smile Happy's sophomore debut (after previously considering shorter and earlier preps at both Oaklawn and Gulfstream). McPeek told Daily Racing Form last week the Risen Star would be the first of what would “ideally” be a two-prep path to Louisville. Since 1937, only three horses have won the Derby with four or fewer previous lifetime starts: Animal Kingdom (four), plus Justify and Big Brown (three each). McPeek trainees returning after 60 to 90 days off in races of nine furlongs or greater have won two of 15 starts over the past five years. On Sunday, Smile Happy closed at 8-1 in Pool 2 of the Derby future wager, the lowest-priced individual betting entrant behind the 9-5 favored field.

2) PAPPACAP (c, Gun Runner–Pappascat, by Scat Daddy) O/B-Rustlewood Farm, Inc. (FL). T-Mark E. Casse. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 6-2-2-1, $596,000. Last Start: 3rd GIIII Lecomte S. Next Start: Next start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 14.

Pappacap got dethroned from the No. 1 ranking, but his third-place effort as the beaten favorite in Saturday's GIII Lecomte S. doesn't warrant a full-scale banishment from the upper crust of the crop. These winter stakes are, after all, preparatory efforts, and the wider view of Pappacap's career arc still portends well for getting 10 furlongs three-plus months from now. As usual, this always-engaged Gun Runner homebred broke without issue, then settled fifth at the fence, underscoring this colt has no confidence issues racing in a covered-up position at the rail. Jockey Joe Bravo let Pappacap cruise up under his own power between the six-furlong and half-mile poles to range within two lengths of pacemaking Epicenter (Not This Time). But by the far turn Pappacap was so seriously hemmed in that Bravo's commitment to the rail started to look like a liability rather than a ground-saving advantage. Epicenter drifted out under pressure, and while Pappacap leapt forward through the suddenly larger opening at the quarter pole, he didn't truly seize command. Pappacap gave Epicenter a stout run for his money from the three-sixteenths pole until 50 yards from the finish, where both were blindsided by a fresh 28-1 closer. “He fought all the way down the lane,” Bravo said. “Both [he and Epicenter] are special horses. They got into a fight and guess what happens? It set up for somebody else to run by both of us.”

3) CORNICHE (c, Quality Road–Wasted Tears, by Najran) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Speedway Stables LLC. B-Bart Evans & Stonehaven Steadings (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $385,000 RNA ylg '20 KEESEP; $1,500,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,262,000. Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A.

Corniche was an undefeatable front-running force who cuffed around his peers at age two up to 1 1/16 miles. But he has yet to begin serious training for his sophomore campaign, and the looming confrontation over trainer Bob Baffert's banishment from Churchill Downs coupled with the inability of his entrants to earn Derby qualifying points is casting an unwelcome shadow over this Quality Road colt's highly anticipated return. Corniche's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile wire job is the race that will almost certainly earn him divisional championship honors. But you have to consider the fortuitous circumstances that played in his favor prior to that race–namely, the vet scratch of the morning line favorite, fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Jack Christopher (Munnings), who was the only other pure speed threat in the Juvenile. In addition, it's worth noting that the GI Juvenile Fillies run two races earlier that day produced a same-distance final clocking .26 seconds faster than Corniche's performance. This colt's GI American Pharoah S. score Oct. 1 might have actually been a better, stronger effort–he led under constant pressure, swatted away two legit challengers on the turn, and that race yielded two next-out stakes winners, a MSW winner, plus the runner-up in the Juvenile.

4) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-1, $181,100. Last Start: 2nd GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Next Start: GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 5. KY Derby Points: 6.

The Giant's Causeway out of a Thunder Gulch mare breeding line that anchors this colt's pedigree is only going to play into Classic Causeway's favor the deeper he advances on the Triple Crown path. Being a sharp breaker is also on his side, too, as the previous six Derby winners all either wired their fields or were second at the internal points of call. Yet this homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper doesn't need to be in front to run well, and his concession of the lead from the one hole in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. shows that he can comfortably stalk inside. In that race Classic Causeway eventually escaped the rail in search of more room out in the clear, but he was out-kicked by a superior Smile Happy that November early evening under the lights at Churchill. He's three breezes back into his Palm Meadows training for a seasonal debut in the Feb. 5 GIII Holy Bull S., a potentially “loaded” affair that could also lure several other contenders on this list.

5) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $31,800. Last Start: 1st Gulfstream MSW. Next Start: Aiming for a two-turn allowance spot. KY Derby Points: 0.

Emmanuel spiked a temperature that forced trainer Todd Pletcher to scratch him from a Jan. 7 two-turn allowance at Tampa, which was to be his second career start off a visually appealing one-turn-mile debut score at Gulfstream (by 6 3/4 lengths with a 78 Beyer Speed Figure). That's the type of a setback that doesn't mean as much on the Derby trail in early January as it might in, say, late March. This $350,000 KEESEP colt by More Than Ready has since posted two bullet half-mile breezes at Palm Beach Downs on consecutive Saturdays, and Pletcher affirmed to TDN on Saturday that he will “hopefully” find another allowance spot instead of attempting a stakes for this physically imposing colt's first two-turn try. One concern as Emmanuel approaches seven weeks between starts is that seven of the horses he beat back on Dec. 11 have already come back to race; six of them lost and the only winner was a dropdown into the maiden optional-claiming ranks. So the “Who'd he beat?” question might end up being legit moving forward into start number two.

6) GIANT GAME (Giant's Causeway–Game For More, More Than Ready) O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-H. Allen Poindexter (KY). T-Dale L. Romans. Sales History: $500,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-0-2, $242,400. Last Start: 3rd GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA. Next Start: Possible for GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 5. KY Derby Points: 4.

Giant Game's above-expectations third at 21-1 odds in the Breeders' Cup has a “deep end of the pool” appeal to it considering he shipped cross-country to square off against the best in his class in his first try outside the maiden ranks, then kicked on smartly while wide off the final turn. The effort was notable not so much for a massive breakthrough, but in terms of suggesting he could be a dangerous racehorse with seasoning at age three. We don't quite have much '22 form available yet to judge the progression of the horses he faced in the Juvenile (only three entrants have run back; all ran third in points-eligible Derby preps). But dig deeper to check out the two MSW races this $500,000 FTKSEL colt by Giant's Causeway competed in, and you'll see the makings of potential key races, as no fewer than a combined seven starters from both races (including Giant Game himself) returned to win next time out. This colt has built a base of five Gulfstream breezes in preparation for a possible start in the Holy Bull S., the last three of them five-eighths bullets.

7) COSTA TERRA (c, Gun Runner–Teardrop, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Lifetime Record: SP, 3-1-0-1, $57,900. Last Start: 5th GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity. Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Jan. 29. KY Derby Points: 0.

Costa Terra may be a chestnut, but he's my Derby “dark horse” at this early juncture of the season. This Gun Runner homebred for Winchell Thoroughbreds has posted seven published breezes at Fair Grounds for trainer Steve Asmussen after a three-race juvenile campaign that consisted of two Ellis Park performances that were much better than they looked followed by a wide fifth against two-turn Grade I company at Keeneland. Dam Teardrop is a half-sister to Pyro, who won two legs of the Fair Grounds Derby prep stakes in 2008 (he was eighth in the Kentucky Derby). Half-brother Pneumatic was a listed stakes winner who attempted (but was off the board) in 2020's nine-furlong GI Belmont S. and the GI Preakness S. for these same connections.

8) NEWGRANGE (c, Violence–Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker) O-Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, SF Racing LLC, Siena Farm LLC, Starlight Racing, Stonestreet Stables, LLC, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan, Robert E. Masterson & Jay A. Schoenfarber. B-Jack Mandato & Black Rock Thoroughbreds (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $125,000 yrl '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $102,000. Last Star: 1st GIII Sham S. Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Jan. 29. KY Derby Points: N/A.

The two-for-two, speed-centric Newgrange waited on horses before cresting into an unmatchable far-turn gear in the GIII Sham S., leaving the impression that despite a touch of greenness, this $125,000 KEESEP colt by Violence could be the type who's up for bigger and better challenges. Seven-time Derby winner Baffert has now won eight editions of the Sham, yet Authentic in 2020 was the only one of those Sham winners to also win the Derby (Medina Spirit was second in the '21 Sham and also won the Derby).

9) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-1, $197,800. Last Start: 1st GII Remsen S. Next Start: Aiming for GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 5. KY Derby Points: 10.

In this age of fewer starts for A-list horses, some sophomores–including highly heralded ones every year–get very deep into their Derby prep seasons without having been truly tested in a stretch fight. That won't be the case with Mo Donegal, who athletically tipped out past four frontrunners at the head of the lane before bumping and grinding through a :12.33 final furlong in the GII Remsen S. to prevail by a hard-fought nose. That was a much more impressive effort than it might appear considering this $250,000 KEESEP buy was facing winners for the first time while stretching out to the 1 1/8-mile distance. His MSW win at 1 1/16 miles was no slouch either, as Mo Donegal was roused from midpack to close an open-length gap late in the lane. Even his career debut–seemingly a throwout race on paper–was of the sneaky-good variety. Mo Donegal broke slowly from the rail in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint, checked at the half-mile pole, was still double-digit lengths off the leaders turning for home, then rallied determinedly to snag third before galloping out past everyone after the wire.

10) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $99,500. Last Start: 2nd GII Remsen S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 4.

Trainer Chad Brown has favorably compared Zandon to his 2017 GI Preakness S. winner Cloud Computing; both colts won their MSW debuts going short even though neither was really cut out to be a sprinter. Stretching all the way out to nine furlongs in the GII Remsen S., this $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart stalked effectively behind a tepid pace, split horses in upper stretch, then had a visually impressive and roughly run throwdown/showdown with nose winner Mo Donegal. Earlier this month, Brown told TDN he was on the fence between what now appears to be a deep Holy Bull S. and the Risen Star S., which we learned this week will feature No. 1-ranked Smile Happy. Neither figure to be an easy spot, but Zandon could prove to be an overlooked entity at decent odds in either one of those stakes.

11) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-2-1-0. Last Start: 2nd GIII Lecomte S. Next Start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 14.

Epicenter won several internal battles within Saturday's Lecomte S., but he got pipped at the wire to just lose the overall war. The effort was strong enough to launch him into the Top 12. And yes, the two horses who ran second and third in the Lecomte are both ranked higher than the out-of-the-clouds winner, because these ratings try not to rely too heavily on who-beat-whom recency at the expense of the bigger picture. Epicenter established control by the time the field hit the first turn, and although he ran slower consecutive quarter miles on the front end at each call, he gets style points for turning back a wall of horses off the turn when he could have just as easily cracked under pressure. Epicenter repulsed the favorite, Pappacap, in a length-of-stretch fight, then galloped out stronger and longer than the unexpected long shot who rolled by him with mid-track momentum. The top two, separated by a head, shared 88 Beyer Speed Figures.

12) JACK CHRISTOPHER (c, Munnings–Rushin No Blushin, by Half Ours) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Jim Bakke, Gerald Isbister, Coolmore Stud & Peter M. Brant. B-Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $145,000 RNA ylg '20 FTKSEL; $135,000 ylg '20 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $330,000. Last Start: 1st GI Champagne S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.

Jack Christopher gets a little bit of a haircut in this week's rankings, dropping from No. 7 to No. 12, but that's a reflection of his inactivity rather than potential ability. This Munnings colt is recovering from a stress fracture discovered after he was scratched as the morning-line fave for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and although the GI Champagne S. victor rejoined trainer Brown in Florida earlier this month, he's yet to post a published workout. “He's going to be up against it, that's for sure,” Brown told TDN earlier this month when asked about making the Derby. “I don't want to rule anything out…but he's certainly behind. To get him to go a mile and a quarter I'm going to need to have something under his belt. We'll see where he takes us and if he doesn't make [the Derby] we have several other races we'd love to target with him.”

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute): Blasted home a $59 winner from well off the tailgate in Saturday's Lecomte. Trainer Keith Desormeaux said Risen Star S. is next for this four-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $37,0000 RNA at KEESEP; $17,000 OBSOCT; $80,000 OBSMAR).

Early Voting (Gun Runner): This $200,000 KEESEP colt for trainer Brown broke his maiden in a one-turn mile and is being pointed for GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct Feb. 5.

Major General (Constitution): The two-for-two winner of the Sept. 18 GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill ($265,000 KEEJAN; $420,000 KEESEP) is three breezes into his '22 comeback for trainer Pletcher, with early March preps on his radar.

Rattle N Roll (Connect): Saturday was the first breeze back for this 81-Beyer, 4 1/4 -length GI Breeders' Futurity S. victor ($55,000 KEENOV, $210,000 KEESEP). He then missed the Breeders' Cup with a foot abscess; could resurface in Mar. 12 GII Tampa Bay Derby.

Slow Down Andy (Nyquist): Reddam homebred a bit erratic through the long Los Al stretch, but prevailed in five-entrant GII Los Alamitos Futurity.

Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb): Runner-up in GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (FTKSEL $330,000) goes back to dirt in Holy Bull S. on Feb. 5. He wired an off-grass mile MSW at Ellis Park last July.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 25 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 4

We're inside the 125-day mark for the May 7 GI Kentucky Derby. The initial Top 12 rankings are largely based on 2-year-old form, but a speculative element is baked into the equation with an eye toward projecting how these still-developing contenders will blossom over the next four months.

1) PAPPACAP (c, Gun Runner–Pappascat, by Scat Daddy)
O/B-Rustlewood Farm, Inc. (FL). T-Mark E. Casse. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 5-2-2-0, $576,000. Last Start: 2nd GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA. Next Start: GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 22. KY Derby Points: 12

Pappacap's past performance block might not suggest an obvious number-one ranking. After all, this is a colt who hasn't won a race since Aug. 7. But when you scrutinize the way this hard-trying Gun Runner homebred for Rustlewood Farm has gone about his business, the intangibles stack in his favor.

Pappacap was fast enough to win at first asking May 14 (pressured intensely by another dueler while the two opened up eight lengths), and he has been an alert breaker in all five of his starts. He's also shown a high level of comfort stalking in a covered-up position; has displayed poise beyond his peers in making multiple in-race moves; and, even in losing efforts, Pappacap noticeably digs in when he senses rivals closing on him. His runner-up try at 15-1 in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile fused many of those attributes: Pappacap led briefly the first few jumps, fought a rating hold through the first turn, settled onto the backstretch, then edged up to be jointly second 3 1/2 furlongs out. Asked for his best approaching the quarter pole, Pappacap was “on hold” in tight quarters for about six strides before shooting a narrow gap and earnestly responding to rousing, but the lone-speed fave was beyond his catching at 1 1/16 miles.

He'll try the New Orleans route to Louisville, and if he wins the GIII Lecomte S., Pappacap will be the third winner of that stakes in the past four years for trainer Mark Casse (who took the '19 and '20 editions but had no entrant last year).

2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $284,810. Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Next Start: Possible for GIII Southwest S., OP, Jan. 29. KY Derby Points: 10

Physically imposing 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy produced the most visually arresting two-turn debut of any juvenile last season when he accelerated in hand three-eighths out in his Oct. 29 Keeneland unveiling, winning at will by 5 1/2 easy lengths. Perhaps the relatively low Beyer Speed Figure of 70 for that effort allowed this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) to go off at generously overlaid 9-2 odds (third choice) in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. in start number two. But the 90 Beyer-earning, 3 1/2-length shellacking Smile Happy administered stamped him among the top of the crop. Although he's lightly raced, this colt has an edge over other contenders in terms of “swagger factor.” A midpack fifth on the first turn at Churchill, Smile Happy got switched out to the four path on the far bend just off the flank of the primed-to-pounce favorite, then loped into his best stride 2 1/2 furlongs out to gain a menacing position fourth off the fence turning for home. Smile Happy's response was both instant and impressive when set down for the drive in upper stretch, and there was a definite transfer of torque into another gear at the eighth pole that no one in that fairly talented field could match. After a Florida freshening and a Jan. 1 return to the Gulfstream work tab–a three-eighths breeze in :38.46 (12/17)–this colt is aiming for an Arkansas prep campaign.

3) CORNICHE (c, Quality Road–Wasted Tears, by Najran)
'TDN Rising Star' O-Speedway Stables LLC. B-Bart Evans & Stonehaven Steadings (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $385,000 RNA ylg '20 KEESEP; $1,500,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,262,000. Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A

'TDN Rising Star' Corniche has never been headed in three front-running scores from as many starts, and the way this stylish son of Quality Road (who topped last year's OBS April sale) broke fluidly from the outermost post and was always in control through brisk splits in the Juvenile almost assuredly cemented his chances of being crowned 2-year-old champ. But since the advent of the Breeders' Cup, winners of the Juvenile have accounted for only two Derby scores from 37 runnings (Nyquist in 2016 and Street Sense in 2007)–a daunting historical trend to overcome. As a counter to that stat, Corniche's pure-speed running style meshes well with the tactical profile of the previous six Derby winners, all of whom were either wire-to-wire winners or no worse than second at internal calls.

You can't talk about this dual Grade I victor's Derby chances without bringing up the subject of trainer Bob Baffert's banishment from Churchill Downs and the inability of his entrants to earn Derby qualifying points. But at this very early stage of the season, the Top 12 rankings will focus more on the contenders themselves while issues involving Baffert's status play out.

You don't see too many 90-Beyer, 6 1/2-length wire jobs from 13-1 firsters at the Spa. But the burden of favoritism while hung out wide from post 13 at Keeneland next time out contributed to a forgivable regression to third when this colt ambitiously forged to the front in the short-stretch GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S.

Trainer Brian Lynch then focused on trying to get this Giant's Causeway homebred to relax during his training. The strategy worked for the most part in the Kentucky Jockey Club S., when Classic Causeway broke running from post one, then conceded the lead to a trio of pacemakers after attaining good inside position. Jockey Joel Rosario repositioned this colt to the three path entering the final turn, and Classic Causeway was on the move with eventual winner Smile Happy when the contenders stacked up four across the track at the head of the lane. Classic Causeway couldn't match strides with a much-the-best winner that day, but the runner-up effort left an impression of room for positive progression into 2022. Classic Causeway will be pointed to the Gulfstream preps while based at Palm Meadows.

5) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher.
Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $31,800. Last Start: 1st Gulfstream MSW. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 0

Emmanuel forced the issue from the one hole going a one-turn mile in his Dec. 11 debut, and the way this brawny son of More Than Ready effortlessly accelerated away at the half-mile pole after posting legit splits suggests the $350,000 KEESEP colt is going to be problematic for any Derby aspirant who dares to engage him on the front end over a Gulfstream surface he so obviously relishes. Favored at 7-5 and crowned a 'TDN Rising Star' in the process of that MSW smackdown, he earned a 78 Beyer that could have been higher had he not been geared down late.

“We've had a lot of More Than Readys over the years, and this is a bigger, scopier colt than a lot of them,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “He kind of reminds me of a Verrazano type–a big, physical, strong imposing colt.”

6) GIANT GAME (Giant's Causeway–Game For More, More Than Ready) O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-H. Allen Poindexter (KY). T-Dale L. Romans. Sales History: $500,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-0-2, $242,400. Last Start: 3rd GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA. Next Start: Aiming for a to-be-determined Florida stakes. KY Derby Points: 4

Giant Game took over three-eighths out to win career start number two, a slow-paced, first-wire-finish route at Keeneland, and that Oct. 9 MSW has subsequently yielded three next-out winners and two well-bet runners-up. His entry into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile four weeks later was a big ask, yet it resulted in a very credible third at 21-1 odds. This $500,000 FTKSEL colt was cued to quicken out of the gate, and jockey Joe Talamo picked a ground-saving spot behind the slightly rank Pappacap. Tipped out to the three path, Giant Game loomed 3 1/2 lengths off favored frontrunner Corniche, then quickened cadence on his own accord while needing only light encouragement to briefly seize second turning for home, widest of the front five. He dug in as well as he could and never packed it in, but while Corniche expanded his winning margin, Pappacap clearly outkicked Giant Game for the place.

After a bit of a break, this well-balanced, athletic colt has recently posted two Gulfstream half-mile breezes in prep for a to-be-determined Florida stakes start.

7) JACK CHRISTOPHER (c, Munnings–Rushin No Blushin, by Half Ours) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Jim Bakke, Gerald Isbister, Coolmore Stud & Peter M. Brant. B-Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $145,000 RNA ylg '20 FTKSEL; $135,000 ylg '20 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $330,000. Last Start: 1st GI Champagne S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10

'TDN Rising Star' Jack Christopher had been the 9-5 favorite on the morning line for the Juvenile when he was forced to scratch the day before that championship race with what trainer Chad Brown described at the time as a “callous on his shin that [Breeders' Cup veterinarians] were uncomfortable with.” A subsequent bone scan revealed a stress fracture, and in mid-November this Munnings colt had a screw surgically inserted to help it heal.

Expectations had been high going into the Juvenile based on an 8 1/2-length blowout debut when favored on the Travers undercard (92 Beyer), and in the one-turn-mile GI Champagne S., Jack Christopher relentlessly engaged the pacemaker on the far turn to earn a 102 Beyer under strong urging. When Jack Christopher's big white blaze eventually graces the work tab in Florida, he'll be the most closely scrutinized sophomore comebacker in the country.

8) COSTA TERRA (c, Gun Runner–Teardrop, by Tapit)
O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Lifetime Record: SP, 3-1-0-1, $57,900. Last Start: 5th GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 0

Costa Terra is flying under the radar coming off a subpar fifth when last seen in the Breeders' Futurity S. in October. But this homebred for Winchell Thoroughbreds caught the eye with enough gusto in his first two races at Ellis Park to merit consideration as a plucky fighter who has the pedigree (by Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare) to adapt to longer distances.

Costa Terra's July 1 debut in the slop was remarkable for the huge gap he closed in a five-furlong sprint, in which he looked surely beaten from the quarter pole until the final jump. He was third next, beaten half a length, despite a momentum stall on the turn and running up on heels late in the Ellis Juvenile S. before galloping out like he wanted more.

Stretched around two turns at Keeneland, Costa Terra's running line suggests he was a no-impact threat from well back. But he likely got a decent learning experience out of his four-wide journey into the first turn from post 11 before making mild progress on the far bend. He then got a two-month freshening and now has built up a work log of five steady breezes at Fair Grounds.

9) NEWGRANGE (c, Violence–Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker)
O-Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, SF Racing LLC, Siena Farm LLC, Starlight Racing, Stonestreet Stables, LLC, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan, Robert E. Masterson & Jay A. Schoenfarber. B-Jack Mandato & Black Rock Thoroughbreds (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $125,000 yrl '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $102,000. Last Star: 1st GIII Sham S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A

With a 2 3/4-length win in Saturday's GIII Sham S., this Baffert trainee is two-for-two without having yet been unleashed to his full potential. This $125,000 KEESEP colt by Violence controlled an even-tempoed mile en route to an 88 Beyer (eight points better than his winning six-furlong debut). But the major visual takeaway was how effortlessly Newgrange opened up on his favored stablemate, Rockefeller (Medaglia d'Oro), three-eighths from home while Rockefeller was ridden with greater urgency. “There was one speed, the other Bob Baffert horse, and I'm pretty sure he didn't want them in a head-and-head,” jockey John Velazquez said. “He told me to put my horse on the lead. Once my horse got to the lead he waited. I took a little hold of him [and] by the time we got to the backside I kind of let him do his own thing. I let him get in a comfortable rhythm. After that it was pretty easy. He's so green…I had to give him a little reminder to keep his mind on running. And his gallop-out was pretty good, so it still seems like he's learning.”

10) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-1, $197,800. Last Start: 1st GII Remsen S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10

Lost amid all the talk about the controversial non-DQ in the stretch run of the GII Remsen S. is the fact that Mo Donegal and Zandon (Upstart) engaged in a rousing fight from the eighth pole home that will hopefully result in a rematch of rivals. Both were stepping up off maiden wins and trying two turns for the first time, and they crossed the wire separated by only a nose with Mo Donegal in front while 9 3/4 lengths clear of the outclassed stragglers. This $250,000 KEESEP colt earned style points for how he skimmed across the heels of the four frontrunners to escape traffic at the top of the lane before grinding down Zandon while applying relentless outside pressure (described as an “attempt to intimidate” by the Equibase chart caller). The two bumped and brushed approaching the wire (final eighth in :12.33) and co-earned 89 Beyers in the only nine-furlong Derby prep for late-season 2-year-olds.

11) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $99,500. Last Start: 2nd GII Remsen S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 4

As described above, this $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart turned in a big Remsen effort when second on the stretch-out from a six-furlong MSW score. He's a sizable good-looker with a nearly black coat, and he enjoyed a clean stalking trip behind a dawdling pace to get second run on two tiring long shots. After splitting horses with authority in upper stretch, this colt braced for the final-furlong confrontation with the eventual winner. And although the onrushing Mo Donegal had built better momentum, Zandon was not intimidated by being hemmed in tight at the fence, and in fact seemed emboldened by the confrontation. Mo Donegal won it by a nose, but Zandon got his head down in front just after the finish, galloping out slightly stronger and longer than his rival.

12) MAJOR GENERAL (c, Constitution–No Mo Lemons, by Uncle Mo) O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Circular Road Breeders (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $265,000 ylg '20 KEEJAN; $420,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $232,525. Last Start: 1st GIII Iroquois S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10

The two-for-two Major General won the very first qualifying points race for the '22 Derby, the Sept. 18 GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill, but soon after was shelved for what was announced in October as a 60-day break. The winning effort by this Constitution colt stood out considering he overcame a bobble at the break and some momentum loss through the first turn. Major General then uncoiled with a big move 3 1/2 furlongs out and bumped two times with the favorite in upper stretch. The roughhousing did not dissuade this colt, and he still had enough power left late to fend off an onrushing closer to win by a neck.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Epicenter (Not This Time): Sparred with the speed then drew off without facing a serious stretch challenge in the 87-Beyer Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds Dec. 26. Lecomte looms as next start for this Steve Asmussen trainee.

Rattle N Roll (Connect): McPeek-trained winner of the Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland missed the Breeders' Cup with a foot abscess. Galloping at Gulfstream, but yet to post a published work.

Slow Down Andy (Nyquist): Won five-entrant GII Los Alamitos Futurity while lugging in with head cocked to grandstand through stretch. Trainer Doug O'Neill considering blinkers for next start, which could come at Oaklawn in the Southwest S.

Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb): Grade II grass winner at Keeneland and runner-up in GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf was going to try a dirt transition for trainer McPeek in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. in late November, but a left front foot infection scuttled that start. Posted first published breeze since then on Jan. 1 at Gulfstream.
White Abarrio (Race Day): Stalked and kicked late to achieve third in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. Now aiming for Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream, where this gray is two-for-two.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 4 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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