Derby Top 12 | Horse Racing Free Tips

TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 for Mar. 29

Over the next two weeks, chaos could take root within the GI Kentucky Derby rankings. This will be the first year that all the nine-furlong, points-earning prep races will be in the books a full four weeks out from the Derby (because of the GI Arkansas Derby moving from three weeks out to five). Thus, every horse on this list (with the exception of this past weekend's GII Louisiana Derby winner) will be in action either this coming Saturday or the next.

1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 5-3-1-1, $511,100. Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 66.

You know it's a wide-open Derby year when the No.-1 ranked contender has his final prep race unexpectedly switched in late March and his new landing spot looks only theoretically softer than the race he opted out of. For a few days last week it appeared as if the racing gods were going to deliver a juicy GI Blue Grass S. rematch of the top-ranked Classic Causeway and 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy), with No. 6-ranked Zandon (Upstart) thrown in to thicken the plot. But this homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper got rerouted over the weekend to Saturday's GI Florida Derby, where his force-the-issue tactics will be put to the test against Nos. 7, 11 and 12 on this list.

Sure, Classic Causeway now doesn't have to ship away from his Florida training base while sidestepping higher-ranked horses. But he now faces the daunting prospect of getting hooked by Gulfstream-loving speedsters White Abarrio (Race Day) and Charge It (Tapit) while the rapidly improving Simplification (Not This Time) aggressively stalks them. This colt has shown both lightning-quick acceleration out of the gate and the ability to finish fast in deep stretch. Now he has to do it against far tougher competition at increasing distances–although longer races appear within the scope of his Giant's Causeway (out of a Thunder Gulch mare) pedigree.

2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY).
T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 30.

There isn't much separating Classic Causeway and Smile Happy near the top of the totem pole. When they met in late November under the lights at Churchill, both were on the prowl and moving best on the far turn before the field stacked up four across the track at the head of the homestretch. Smile Happy uncorked a “Wow!” gear late in the lane that Classic Causeway couldn't match, enabling him to win decisively. But Classic Causeway has since shown smart progression in two starts at age three, while this this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) was held up on the far turn and then ran up on heels in a botched stretch bid in his lone sophomore prep so far.

In fact, the Blue Grass S. now unfolds as a rematch of the two-three finishers out of that Feb. 19 GII Risen Star S., and both had less-than-desirable trips behind subsequent stakes repeater Epicenter (Not This Time). Smile Happy, presumably a tighter fighter, will once again have to tangle with the well-regarded Zandon, who figures to be more of a dangerous pace presence with a cleaner start. There's really no way to quantify the far-turn torque and deep-stretch pop that Smile Happy unleashed in two striking performances at age two. But he's on the cusp of put-up or shut-up time in his final Derby prep, because juvenile form decreases in relevance the closer we edge to May 7.

3) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $1,010,639. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 164.

The final two weekends of preps will likely produce a flashier contender or two, but Epicenter appears to have a lock on the strongest overall body of work after having polished off his prep campaign with a thorough, 102-Beyer dissection of the Louisiana Derby. This $260,000 KEESEP colt has honed a nice balance of power and poise over a six-race learning curve, and there aren't too many questions remaining about whether he's got the mentality to go along with obvious physical attributes. Epicenter has natural speed out of the gate, but doesn't require the lead to run well, can tick off quarter mile after quarter mile of up-tempo splits, fights back when challenged, and has galloped out past the wire with gusto with victories at nine furlongs and 1 3/16 miles. He's only once (and just barely) tasted defeat in the last six months, and will now get six weeks to ease into the swing of things at Churchill Downs, where he will train up to the Derby after already having won over the track there as a juvenile.

4) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 0.

Knowing that Messier is now eligible to earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points in the GI Santa Anita Derby because of a transfer out of barred trainer Bob Baffert's barn upgrades his overall chances. But this 'TDN Rising Star,' now trained by Tim Yakteen, has been consistently ranked with the top-tier contenders on this list ever since his 103-Beyer, 15-length pummeling of the anemic GIII Robert B. Lewis S. field Feb. 6, and his overall task hasn't changed one iota: This $470,000 FTKSEL bay by Empire Maker still has to prove his 20-point Beyer spike over three newly graduated maidens and one ungraded turf stakes winner can translate to a professional showing against the well-regarded Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) over nine furlongs.

Messier must accomplish that tall task off an eight-week break, then–providing he runs decently enough to forge ahead to Louisville–will only have two sophomore preps under his belt. Over the last five years, horses with just two Derby preps at age three are a collective 0-for-27. However, that two-at-three template worked well over the previous decade, producing eight Derby winners between 2007 and 2016.

5) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 12.

Like Messier above, the two-preps-at-three angle applies to Mo Donegal. He paired 90 Beyers in both his final juvenile start (a slugfest from the eighth pole home in the GII Remsen S.) and his lone sophomore try (an excuse-laden third in the GIII Holy Bull S.). He might have had another early March prep thrown into the mix, but the combination of a wide post and a virus necessitated a scratch out of the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. This $250,000 KEESEP bay by Uncle Mo will go next in the GII Wood Memorial S., and Mo Donegal has an edge in that he is a known commodity when it comes to his willingness to dig in and fight in deep stretch.

While that trait is admirable, you also have to wonder if he's the type of colt who “finds” the trouble he's compelled to overcome. And given the fact that the last eight Kentucky Derbies have been won by horses either on the lead or not far from it, there are concerns about Mo Donegal being a closer who has had gate trouble comments in his charts for each of his four lifetime starts. A clean break and an emphatic performance while stalking closer to the action in the Wood (the effort need not be a victory) would go a long way toward bolstering his chances in Louisville.

6) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

Zandon, a sizable good-looker with a nearly black coat, has been favorably compared by trainer Chad Brown to his 2017 GI Preakness S. winner Cloud Computing (both won their MSW debuts going short even though neither was cut out to be a sprinter). This Upstart colt ($170,000 KEESEP) remains on target for the Blue Grass at Keeneland. The last four times Brown has had a starter in that stakes, the outcomes have been one win and three close seconds.

Zandon, however, is one of only two currently ranked horses within the Top 12 not to have won beyond the maiden ranks (Charge It is the other). But based on adversity-overcoming rallies in both the Remsen S. and the Risen Star S., supporters have piled on based on the logic that Zandon is a won't-back-down colt with a lot of fight in him. Regardless of how his Blue Grass turns out, so long as he accrues enough points to make the cut (right now he only has 14, which puts him outside looking in), it's worth noting that he'd head into the Derby off three consecutive nine-furlong efforts, which is a touch unusual (and to his benefit) considering the modern-day prep calendar.

7) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-1-1, $411,350. Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 54.

We won't know until Wednesday who's in or what the post draw looks like, but the late addition of No. 1-ranked Classic Causeway to the Florida Derby field could paradoxically end up benefitting Simplification rather than hurting his chances. This son of Not This Time ($50,000 RNA at KEENOV) is looking increasingly confident settling into his newfound role as a closer, yet he also has enough tactical speed to carve out menacing stalking trips. It's not too difficult to picture a scenario unfolding on Saturday in which Classic Causeway, White Abarrio and Charge It (or at least two of those three) engage in a pace battle that compromises their overall chances, and Simplification figures to be primed to pounce if that happens.

He worked five-eighths in :59.91 Saturday at Gulfstream (2/31), after which trainer Antonio Sano said, “He breezed faster than I thought he would… The jockey told me he was easy to handle. The gallop-out after the finish was very, very good–better than last week.”

8) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $69,600. Last Start: 4th GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 5.

After a relentless 78-Beyer MSW wire job in a one-turn Gulfstream mile, this 'TDN Rising Star' and $350,000 KEESEP son of More Than Ready coasted home in an 89-Beyer allowance over a mile and 40 yards at Tampa. He then endured a circuitous journey (229 feet wider than six-off-the-fence winner Simplification) in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., a race in which Emmanuel was favored until the final flash. Right now he's parked way down on the south side of the Derby leaderboard at No. 38 (five points), so a Blue Grass rebound is imperative to his chances of earning a starting berth for the first Saturday in May.

9) FORBIDDEN KINGDOM (c, American Pharoah–Just Louise, by Five Star Day) O-MyRacehorse & Spendthrift Farm LLC. B-Springhouse Farm (KY). T-Richard E. Mandella. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-1-1, $434,000. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. Next Start: Possible for GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 50.

Forbidden Kingdom is back breezing after a mid-March blip because of a slight fever. Trainer Richard Mandella doesn't think his colt has lost any edge by missing one scheduled workout, and he projects to be favored over No.-4 ranked Messier when the two clash in the Santa Anita Derby.

This speed-centric son of American Pharoah ($300,000 FTKSEL) possesses a nice balance of raw power and a classy demeanor, but he brings an offbeat past-performance block into his nine-furlong debut. It's unusual to see a Derby contender entering April with five races whose distances, first start to last, are 5 1/2, 5, 7 and 7 furlongs followed by just one go around two turns at 1 1/16 miles.

Messier handed Forbidden Kingdom one of his two defeats, besting him while geared down in the late stages of the GIII Bob Hope S. back in November. But Messier's form has been up and down in two starts since that victory (no-punch second as the beaten fave in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity followed by a 103-Beyer blowout victory), while Forbidden Kingdom has been an authoritative winner in his two starts at age three, with his stock soaring based on 94- and 97-Beyer wirings in a pair of Grade II stakes.

10) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial, AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 10.

The 2-for-2 Early Voting has been lightly handled to date, but he'll get a baptism into the deeper end of the Derby prep pool in the Wood Memorial, where the undefeated Morello (Classic Empire) seems sure to provide upgraded pace punch and likely favorite Mo Donegal looms as a proven closer. This $200,000 KEESEP colt by Gun Runner is difficult to get a true read on because his scant form is skewed by retroactively upgraded Beyer figures and the dull nature of the Aqueduct winter surface on the two days he raced there.

Having said that, Early Voting's two starts both stood out as positive visual impressions. His MSW score in a one-turn mile saw him effectively pressuring two rivals from the outside in a three-way spar, then still having enough oomph late to repel a serious late-race challenge. And his GIII Withers S. wiring gave the impression of a colt powering away at will with untapped energy remaining. You don't have to delve too deeply into Early Voting's pedigree to see obvious stamina influences. But will those distance-capable attributes be ready to bloom May 7 given his relatively shallow base of in-race experience?

11) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $240,850. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 12.

White Abarrio forced the issue in the most talent-laden juvenile stakes last year, the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., and even though he eventually regressed to fifth, he re-sparked late to claw back third behind heavy hitters Smile Happy and Classic Causeway. This Race Day gray ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) has only had one race since then, and although it was a winning effort in the Holy Bull, the victory was earned under favorable front-running circumstances while contenders behind him encountered all sorts of trip trouble. Yet he did earn a higher-than-expected 97 Beyer in that try, and such a fig–if replicated on Saturday–puts this athletic gray into the mix once again as a knows-his-job overachiever who's 3-for-3 over the Gulfstream main track.

White Abarrio will target the Florida Derby off an eight-week layoff. Over the last five years, trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr., has won at a 24% clip with 326 starters freshened between seven and nine weeks. When you drill down and include only graded stakes starters within that parameter, his strike rate is a still-respectable 16% (5-for-31).

12) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $42,400. Last Start: 1st Gulfstream MSW. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 0.

Athletic, smooth-striding 'TDN Rising Star' Charge It debuts within the Top 12 in advance of his first stakes foray in Saturday's Florida Derby. He's had two very different MSW mile races at Gulfstream. The first, even though it was a loss, might have told us more about his competitive character. It was a Jan. 8 prolonged duel while pegged down at the fence as the fave, and this Tapit gray barely lost a ding-dong battle to the wire against the next-out third-place finisher in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. while the two strode home 12 1/2 lengths clear of the rest of the field (83 Beyer).

Next time out, Feb. 12, was a proverbial cakewalk for this 1-5 chalk, and the 93-Beyer effort was best summed up by announcer Pete Aiello, who noted that Charge It was “never out of second gear” at any point during his 8 1/2-length shellacking. His grand-dam is MGISW route victress and blue-hen mare Take Charge Lady, whose progeny include the 2013 GI Travers S. winner and 3-year-old champ Will Take Charge.

Charge It | Ryan Thompson

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Blackadder (Quality Road): This $620,000 KEESEP winner of the El Camino Real Derby is likely for Saturday's Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway, with next week's Blue Grass at Keeneland the backup option.

In Due Time (Not This Time): After emerging “a little tired” from runner-up try in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., this three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) is under consideration for the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, or even the GIII Lexington S., as per trainer Kelly Breen via DRF.

Morello (Classic Empire): Undefeated, 96-Beyer GIII Gotham S. winner ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) will get a stern two-turn test for the first time in the Wood Memorial.

Pappacap (Gun Runner): Homebred for Rustlewood Farm started the season ranked No. 1 within the Top 12, but plummeted off the charts with a dull no-show in the Risen Star S. Could he rebound in the Florida Derby? Keep in mind the big turnaround trainer Mark Casse orchestrated in the final prep for 2-year-old champ Classic Empire after setbacks during that colt's 2017 sophomore campaign.

Secret Oath (Arrogate): Briland Farm homebred and D. Wayne Lukas-trained filly seeking to beat boys in Arkansas Derby. She got some help at entry time, as subpar crew awaits on Saturday (no Top 12 horses in Oaklawn's premier stakes).

Slow Down Andy (Nyquist): Reddam homebred makes the cut for the Derby with 60 qualifying points after GIII Sunland Derby score. Blinkers-on effort yielded 86 Beyer. He withstood pressured pace but once again came unfocused through the lane with tail-swishing, erratic run over soft competition.

Un Ojo (Laoban): One-eyed New York-bred gelding has already amassed 54 qualifying points and will try to pad that cushion in Saturday's Arkansas Derby. Considering his 75-1 GII Rebel S. upset occurred in steady rain, a 30% chance of thunderstorms in the advance forecast could end up being his best buddy.

The post TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 for Mar. 29 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 for Mar. 22

We now enter the demanding segment of the GI Kentucky Derby prep schedule when most of the important stakes stretch to nine furlongs and are worth 100 qualifying points to the winners. This Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby is the focal point of the weekend, and it's also the lone 1 3/16-mile prep in North America.

1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 5-3-1-1, $511,100. Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 66.

In the aftermath of Classic Causeway's grace-under-pressure wiring of the GII Tampa Bay Derby, there was general consensus that his victory was visually impressive even though it yielded a subpar Beyer Speed Figure of 84 (a four-point regression off his previous stakes win). That juxtaposition makes it difficult to peg whether this Giant's Causeway homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper is the real deal, Derby-wise, and it also splits his supporters and detractors along the “numbers don't lie” and “figures can't quantify everything” fault line.

I'll argue for the latter point. Factor in a drying-out track, a backstretch headwind, and Classic Causeway's geared-down run to the finish, and you can make a cogent case that quirky conditions contributed to that low number. Take a look at No. 10-ranked Early Voting's write-up below, and you'll see how the Beyer figurators (as they should when offbeat numbers merit a second look) significantly upgraded that colt's preliminary Beyer after taking into account how other horses ran back in their next-out races. Making speed figures is more of an art than a science, and Classic Causeway isn't going to be regarded as a non-threat in the GI Blue Grass S. on the basis of one on-paper blip in his past-performance block. You want a stat that confuses the overall equation even more? Consider that Classic Causeway's final sixteenth in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. in :5.98 still rates as the only sub-six-seconds clocking among the 2021-22 Derby preps at 1 1/16 miles, indicating this frontrunner is capable of finishing as well as he rockets out of the gate.

2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY).
T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW,
3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 30.

As of this past weekend, trainer Kenny McPeek was still on the fence between the GI Curlin Florida Derby Apr. 2 and the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. one week later for 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy. Remaining at Gulfstream (where Smile Happy has been training) throws this colt into a fight against three other Top 12 contenders, while opting for Keeneland sets up a highly anticipated showdown against No. 1-rated Classic Causeway. That pairing would be a rematch of their one-two finish in the Nov. 27 GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., when this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) unleashed a devastating demonstration of deep-stretch torque to win at will over what has proven to be a deep field of late-season juveniles.

Regardless of where he goes, every handicapper on the planet is going to be factoring in that Smile Happy wasn't fully cranked for his sophomore debut at Fair Grounds, when he rallied belatedly for second in the GII Risen Star S. after suffering momentum losses on the far turn and in upper stretch. Although Smile Happy is light on actual experience (just three races), McPeek for months has been waxing positively about his above-average maturity level, which is backed by a discernible gravitas in the way this colt carries himself and goes about his business.

3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: N/A.

Beyond 'TDN Rising Star' Messier and the No. 9-ranked Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah), all is quiet on the western front of the Derby trial, with no other California-based horses looming as A-list contenders. The GI Santa Anita Derby could shake out as a short-field match-up headlined by those two, and this $470,000 FTKSEL bay by Empire Maker will have his work cut out for him in trying to assert that his 103-Beyer, 15-length trouncing of the weak GIII Robert B. Lewis S. field Feb. 5 was no fluke. Did Messier really improve his fig 20 points off his previous effort, or was that highest Beyer of the year by any 3-year-old male an illusion of his dominance over just four other horses (three fresh out of the maiden ranks)?

The layoff angle presents another conundrum: Baffert has won a record nine Santa Anita Derbies, but every single one of those winners last started in the month of March, making Messier's attempt off an eight-week break an anomaly for a Baffert trainee. Additionally, Messier currently remains ineligible to earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points because of Baffert's banishment by Churchill Downs, Inc., (although the Hall-of-Fame conditioner has initiated litigation to challenge his Derby starting status).

4) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 12.

After a brief lapse in training because of a virus, this Uncle Mo bay was back on the Palm Beach Downs work tab Saturday, breezing a half mile in :49.41 (11/25) on even terms with stablemate and 'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel (More Than Ready). When this $250,000 KEESEP colt goes next in the GII Wood Memorial, he'll partner with Joel Rosario for the first time, as Irad Ortiz, Jr., who was aboard for Mo Donegal's last three starts, has committed to ride No. 1-ranked Classic Causeway at Keeneland the same afternoon.

Already a nine-furlong winner after annexing the GII Remsen S. in December at Aqueduct, Mo Donegal was the beaten favorite when third and suffering the most brutal trip among top Derby contenders so far this season in the GIII Holy Bull S. in February. Ortiz wasted a lot of lateral movement with his deep closer in that race by going from the rail to the five path on the first turn, then getting blocked when attempting to dive back down to the fence again on the far turn. When redirected back into the clear while widest of all, Mo Donegal spurted to life in deep stretch, digging in with renewed interest and just barely getting pipped for the place photo while finishing fast under a full head of steam. The more speed in front of Mo Donegal in the Wood, the better.

5) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

Zandon, who just celebrated his third birthday Mar. 21, occupies a lofty spot within the Top 12 considering he's the only contender yet to win beyond the maiden ranks. But he's probably packed more “street smarts” into his three lifetime races than most colts in this less-is-more era of training Derby contenders. At least that's the working theory. The bandwagon for this $170,000 KEESEP colt was already straining at the axles based on positive impressions from his willingness to fight in the rough-and-tumble stretch run of the GII Remsen S. (second) and again in the GII Risen Star S. after missing the break (third). Last week's naming of Flavien Prat to ride Zandon in his next start at Keeneland could also be viewed as a plus. If the stars align and the racing gods deliver us a Blue Grass that features Classic Causeway, Smile Happy and Zandon, the clash of the Nos. 1, 2 and 5 horses on this list would make that Apr. 9 stakes the meatiest Derby prep the sport has witnessed in years.

6) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $410,639. Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 64.

Only two horses have won the GII Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby–Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924. One Louisiana Derby runner-up (Funny Cide in 2003) also wore a blanket of roses in Louisville. But strangely enough, the Louisiana Derby is now on the verge of having two of its also-rans in the past three years recognized as Kentucky Derby winners via disqualification–Country House in '19 (because of an in-race foul by Maximum Security) and Mandaloun in '21 (pending an under-appeal drug DQ of Medina Spirit).

Epicenter, this year's expected favorite, caught a break when only seven could be lured to run against him, with only one of those rivals ranked within the current Top 12. This $260,000 KEESEP son of Not This Time already checks quite a few boxes on the Derby desirability list: Five lifetime races, all with ascending Beyer Speed Figures. Three wins around two turns, and one already at nine furlongs. He breaks adeptly, uses speed as an effective weapon, but does not seem to be a needs-the-lead colt.

Epicenter fights gamely when put to pressure in the stretch, and his only loss in the past six months came after he repulsed multiple attacks before getting nailed at the wire by a pick-up-the-pieces long shot. A win on Saturday isn't crucial. But a gritty showing is imperative in a spot so seemingly favorable for Epicenter that it could loom as a “trap” race masquerading as an obvious win opportunity.

Simplification ($50,000 RNA at KEENOV) wasn't on the radar of most Derby prognosticators when the year started. But this athletic son of Not This Time has earned a spot near the top of the crop with a nice progression arc under the patient handling of trainer Antonio Sano. He flashed blitzing speed to win his maiden by 16 3/4 lengths in 1:09.81 for six furlongs back in October, and has rounded into an adaptable stalker or closer while stretching out in distance, looking comfortable and confident despite having to change his tactics. In the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., Simplification was hooked widest of all off the far turn and finished with purpose over a short-stretch 1 1/16-miles configuration. He now has six races on his résumé and a block of four 90 or better Beyers against increasingly more difficult company. The Florida Derby is next.

8) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher.
Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $69,600. Last Start: 4th GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 5.

This physically robust 'TDN Rising Star' is logical but not definite for the Florida Derby. Regardless of where he starts next, bettors will be factoring in his Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. tour of the track that Trakus clocked as being 229 feet wider than a winner who journeyed six off the fence turning for home. The unknown in Emmanuel's equation has to do with whether or not he will revert to flashing the characteristic early speed that propelled him to a 2-for-2 career start. Emmanuel ran stunningly in his Gulfstream MSW debut in a one-turn mile, then capably peeled off a two-turn allowance win at Tampa while never being fully extended. But in terms of the caliber of competition he dismantled on those afternoons, it is a little concerning to see that the collective next-out records of the horses he beat is only 1-for-12, with the lone victor among that group having to drop into the maiden-claiming ranks to graduate.

Forbidden Kingdom isn't the first (and likely won't be the last) Derby contender this season to miss scheduled training because of a mild fever. But when the same thing happened to Emmanuel in early January and Mo Donegal at the start of March, their connections simply opted for other qualifying-points prep races. That's not a luxury available to trainer Richard Mandella with this speed-centric son of American Pharoah ($300,000 FTKSEL). He'd been aiming his colt for the Apr. 9 Santa Anita Derby, but had to hold him out of a workout last Friday after Forbidden Kingdom spiked a temperature. In recent years, Forbidden Kingdom could have been rerouted to the GI Arkansas Derby, which, with its traditional mid-April spot on the calendar three weeks before the Kentucky Derby, annually attracted late entrants as the lone-remaining nine-furlong, points-awarding prep. But because this year Oaklawn moved its premier stakes back to Apr. 2, an unprecedented four-week gulf now exists between the final 100-points-to-the-winner stakes and the Kentucky Derby itself.

“He has not had another temperature,” Mandella said Saturday morning. “I'm hoping we can still make the Santa Anita Derby…. So far, it looks good. I don't think it's a problem to miss the first work [since a 98-Beyer wiring of the GII San Felipe S.] because we've got time for a couple more. Everything will have to go right, and so far, it is.”

10) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial, AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 10.

Because Early Voting has only had two well-spaced starts and is still more than two weeks away from his final Derby prep, we have to do a fair amount of dissecting his company lines to size up how good he might be. It's been well publicized that the horses who ran second and fourth behind him in the Feb. 5 GII Withers S. came back to win the GII Rebel S. at 75-1 and finish second in the Tampa Derby at 37-1. In the wake of those results, Early Voting's winning 78 Beyer figure got retooled to a significantly higher 87. But two other also-rans out of the Withers could only manage second and third as the favorites in a three-horse stakes at Parx, and another was up the track in the GIII Gotham S., so it's probably prudent to hold off on hanging the “key race” label on Early Voting's easy Withers win.

The most interesting bit of info out of his two Aqueduct victories is that both occurred on dull winter surfaces that yielded tepid final times. This begs the question of what this colt might be capable of over a tighter track. Early Voting is a speed-oriented threat capable of sustained intensity, and his stock as a Derby contender is high right now as a coveted first-crop son of Gun Runner out of an unraced Tiznow mare who is a half-sister to 2004 sprint champ Speightstown. The Wood Memorial should tell us how much of that valuation is based on reality rather than perception.

This Race Day gray owns three open-length wins at Gulfstream, and his only loss was a pugnacious third at Churchill behind the Nos. 1 and 2 colts on this list. The Florida Derby is next.

“Two weeks out, so far, so good,” said trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr., on Sunday after White Abarrio breezed five furlongs in company in 1:00.42 (4/17) under jockey Tyler Gaffalione. The move was the colt's fourth workout since seizing the Holy Bull S. in February. Joseph said the workout “was more of an easier breeze with a good finish and a good gallop-out. Everything went to plan. He sat off a workmate. He relaxed well. I had his last quarter in :23, so it was a good finish.”

White Abarrio's last-win Beyer of 97 rates fourth-best this year among all 3-year-old males. But that big fig (earned under ideal trip circumstances) also represented a sizable jump off his first three Beyers (81, 81 and 80), and it will be a big ask for him to replicate or even improve upon that pattern while stepping up into Grade I company and trying nine furlongs for the first time.

12) RATTLE N ROLL (c, Connect–Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg) O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-St. Simon Place (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $55,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $210,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-2-0-1, $383,460. Last Start: 6th GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 10.

Timing and circumstances haven't been on the side of this huge-striding grinder. At Saratoga last summer, he got caught in a quarantine barn after other horses came down with a herpes virus. Then this son of Connect ($55,000 KEENOV; $210,000 KEESEP) bolted on the turn when making a potentially winning move. After winning back-to-back Kentucky races in the fall (a MSW and a Grade I stakes), a foot abscess caused Rattle N Roll to miss the Breeders' Cup, where he would have been among the favorites for the GI Juvenile. Coming off a five-month layoff, he ran like a not-ready-for-prime-time colt (sixth in the Tampa Derby), and trainer Kenny McPeek had signaled before that race that we might get a glimpse of the true Rattle N Roll three weeks later when he stretched him out to 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby. That opportunity now presents itself, and there are only two other stakes winners lurking in the field of eight. Saturday's race in New Orleans doesn't rate as a “big easy.” But it's lacking enough sophomore star power to make it a now-or-never proposition for Rattle N Roll to stamp himself as a legit contender in Louisville.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Blackadder (Quality Road): This $620,000 KEESEP Baffert trainee could be on the traveling team to Oaklawn, where he's nominated to the Arkansas Derby.

Charge It (Tapit): Whisper Hill Farm homebred and 'TDN Rising Star' for trainer Todd Pletcher appears on target for Florida Derby.

Ethereal Road (Quality Road): Rebel S. runner-up will be rerouted to Blue Grass S. in an effort to keep this D. Wayne Lukas trainee separated from filly stablemate Secret Oath (Arrogate), who will take on the boys in the Arkansas Derby.

In Due Time (Not This Time): Three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) bankrolled 20 qualifying points with second in Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., his first two-turn try for trainer Kelly Breen.

Morello (Classic Empire): Undefeated, 96-Beyer GIII Gotham S. victor ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) should contribute to lively pace in Wood Memorial.

Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb): Bullet breeze at Keeneland last Friday for this $330,000 FTKSEL colt in first work back since Battaglia S. win over Tapeta at Turfway.

Un Ojo (Laoban): Every Derby season needs an outlandish overachiever to keep things interesting. This one-eyed New York-bred gelding, with his 75-1 rain-soaked shocker in the Rebel S., is that horse for 2022. He might not have universal respect, but Un Ojo owns 54 qualifying points, with only two contenders ahead of him on the leaderboard. Next up, the Arkansas Derby.

The post TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 for Mar. 22 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12 for Mar. 8

Sometimes a big weekend of prep races brings answers to key development questions on the GI Kentucky Derby trail. Other times–like this past Saturday–those major stakes only produce more questions. Part of the fun about the emerging puzzle this year is that at this point, no one contender within the Top 12 stands very far above his peers.

1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-1-1, $301,100. Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 16.

Trainer Brian Lynch has termed both of Classic Causeway's works since his Feb. 12 victory as “strong” and he is confident this colt's apparent fondness for racing over the sandy Tampa strip will make him a worthy favorite in Saturday's GII Tampa Bay Derby. A glance at the latest “probables” list shouldn't inspire much fear in the favorite's camp, because unless there's an unexpected entrant before draw time Wednesday, there are no other Top 12 contenders making the trip to Tampa.

But–as annually warned in this space–Tampa sometimes produces quirky results, and the last four editions of its Derby have been won by longshots at odds higher than 8-1. Between 1987 and 1996, before Tampa's sophomore stakes became attractive, points-awarding Kentucky Derby preps, four sophomores swept both the Davis and the Tampa Derby. But in the 25 years since then, only two horses have managed that increasingly difficult double (Burning Roma in '01 and Destin in '16). Yet this Giant's Causeway homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper brings impressive credentials: His Davis romp featured an impressive burst of late-race acceleration that produced the fastest final sixteenth of any prep at 1 1/16 miles so far this season, and he ran tenaciously as a juvenile against heavy hitters in two of the more difficult graded stakes last autumn.

2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 30.

'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy beat three next-out stakes winners in his visually arresting GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. victory last November, and his February comeback in the GII Risen Star S. was punctuated by a too-late closing kick after enduring mild trip trouble. As the highest-priced of 45 Runhappy yearlings to sell at auction in 2020 ($185,000 FTKSEL after a $175,000 KEENOV buy), Smile Happy stands out as a colt with a maturity edge who responds to being rated off the pace and is capable of uncorking highly torqued far-turn moves that aren't in the toolboxes of most rivals. On Saturday at Gulfstream, he was back on the work tab for the first time since his last race, breezing a half mile in :49.03 (33/76). Two Grade I's, the Curlin Florida Derby or the Toyota Blue Grass S., have been mentioned as a possible next start, and Kenny McPeek said a factor in the decision will be a desire by owner Lucky Seven Stable to keep Smile Happy separated from stablemate Rattle N Roll (Connect), who is ranked at No. 12.

3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: Probable for GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: N/A.

'TDN Rising Star' Messier now has two published workouts since his blowout 15-length, 103-Beyer thumping of the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. field on Feb. 6. This $470,000 FTKSEL colt by Empire Maker is parked atop the depth chart within trainer Bob Baffert's perennially deep stable of Derby contenders, but his starting status for the first leg of the Triple Crown is in limbo while Baffert litigates both a banishment by Churchill Downs, Inc., and an equine medication suspension by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. Although the subpar Lewis field is not a proper measuring stick to judge how good Messier might really be, note that two starts back this colt beat Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) in the GIII Bob Hope S., and that rival has since won two Santa Anita graded stakes in succession, including last Saturday's GII San Felipe S.

Mo Donegal was the 3-1 morning-line favorite for last Saturday's GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. until he scratched three days before the race. The scratch itself wasn't a shocker, because trainer Todd Pletcher had said at entry time that Mo Donegal's starting status would be post-draw dependent. So when this $250,000 KEESEP colt drew the 12 hole–hardly ideal for a closer on Gulfstream's short-stretch 1 1/16 miles configuration–Pletcher withdrew. Jerry Crawford of Donegal Racing told TDN that Mo Donegal had also developed a “minor virus,” which now means the GII Wood Memorial S. Apr. 9 at Aqueduct will serve as the colt's lone Derby prep stakes between February and May. Pletcher “didn't seem particularly concerned about this,” Crawford said. “Before the virus popped up, one of the options we were seriously considering was training up to the Wood. So this isn't that big a change of plans for us.”

5) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Possible for GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

It's too early in the season for there to be a “wise guy” horse among the Derby aspirants. That informal designation annually gets applied to a better-than-he-looks contender sometime around Derby week itself, and it's a figurative way of saying the supposed sharpies will be pounding that horse in the betting because they see value where the public doesn't. But Zandon's adversity-overcoming narrative has been so well publicized this winter that you have to start to wonder if he'll be able to live up to it. This $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart is still only a MSW sprint winner. But his widespread appeal stems from the way Zandon handled himself under duress in two nine-furlong stakes. His loss by a head when getting roughed up in the stretch of the GII Remsen S. made national headlines because of the controversial non-DQ of Mo Donegal. And every trip handicapper in the nation noted Zandon blowing the break of the Risen Star S., only to catch the eye with a stout three-furlong run that culminated with Zandon digging in to win a tight photo for third. We've all seen his potential, but pretty soon he's going to have to actually deliver. Trainer Chad Brown has mentioned the GI Blue Grass S. as this colt's next start. That's a race that Brown knows how to target effectively: The last four times Brown has had a starter in the Blue Grass, the results have been one win and three close seconds.

The way it stands now, Epicenter will be the only Top 12 contender to complete the month of March with at least six lifetime starts under his belt. That's still not very many based on historical benchmarks. But under the current less-is-more Derby training mindset, it could give this $260,000 KEESEP colt an advantage over more lightly raced peers. Nyquist in 2016 was the last Derby winner to amass at least seven starts prior to Louisville, and it seems like ages ago when California Chrome started 10 times prior to his 2014 Derby victory. (The last Derby winner with double-digit starts before him? Charismatic with 14 in 1999.) Epicenter's seasoning is already evident in the unruffled, no-nonsense way he goes about his business, and while not a flashy sort of frontrunner, he cranks out honest fractions and fights off whoever comes after him without looking intimidated or in over his head. If he runs away with the 1 3/16-miles GII Louisiana Derby in his next start, he'll additionally be the only A-list sophomore to have won both at and beyond nine furlongs.

Simplification had been pegged as a needs-the-lead type of horse as recently as last month. But when he tossed his head at the break and then showed he could come from behind to get second in the Feb. 5 GIII Holy Bull S., trainer Antonio Sano sensed he might have a colt capable of firing well regardless of where he was positioned. In Saturday's Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth , Simplification ($50,000 RNA KEENOV) saved ground near the fence while midpack through the first turn, then was angled out to avoid getting pocketed on the back straight. Jockey Jose Ortiz did some lateral weaving and minor brake tapping to keep from getting stalled, but once Simplification was guided outside and into the clear approaching the far bend, it became obvious that Ortiz's strategy was not to let 'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel (More Than Ready) out of his striking sights. Simplification followed that rival and was asked to rev it up three-eighths out, and although Emmanuel got the first jump, the widest-of-all Simplification had built the better momentum. The two faves left trouble behind off the turn (neither affected by the two-horse spill right behind them), and Simplification swooped down to the inside to finish with purpose. He earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, and will be aimed at the GI Florida Derby.

8) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher.
Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $69,600. Last Start: 4th GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 5.

Even though Simplification was six wide into the stretch of the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., Emmanuel ran 38 feet (about four lengths) more that the winner, according to Trakus, while checking in fourth. The read here is that this brawny 'TDN Rising Star' and $350,000 KEESEP son of More Than Ready will be a more dangerous commodity in the Florida Derby. Although Emmanuel lacked the characteristic early speed that propelled him to a 2-for-2 career start, he still put in a solid far-turn move after a four-wide journey through the clubhouse turn, a nine-wide placement on the backstretch, then a five-wide run through the far bend. He also suffered some momentum loss in upper stretch when Simplification veered down and claimed an inner path, but when Luis Saez switched Emmanuel off Simplification's heels it was clear this colt was already spent and had no true spark for the final furlong. With only five Kentucky Derby qualifying points to his credit, Emmanuel either delivers big in the Florida Derby or will have to make other plans for the first Saturday in May.

9) FORBIDDEN KINGDOM (c, American Pharoah–Just Louise, by Five Star Day) O-MyRacehorse & Spendthrift Farm LLC. B-Springhouse Farm (KY). T-Richard E. Mandella. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-1-1, $434,000. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. KY Derby Points: 50.

Forbidden Kingdom's 5 3/4-length wiring of the GII San Felipe S. on Saturday launched him into the Top 12, yet he still rates as a wild card when it comes to what the 98-Beyer victory means in the overall Derby picture. This son of American Pharoah ($300,000 FTKSEL) owns rocketing early speed and an assertive way of weaponizing that chief attribute. But this year's renewal of the San Felipe came up weak on paper, and early speed had a decided advantage at Santa Anita on Saturday, with four of five dirt races being won by horses who either led all the way or dueled for the lead. And even though Forbidden Kingdom wasn't being ridden all-out once it became evident he had the race wrapped up in deep stretch, his final sixteenth of 7.09 seconds rates as the slowest among all Derby qualifying points races at 1 1/16 miles from the Breeders' Cup onward in 2021-22. But Forbidden Kingdom does have that patient Richard Mandella mojo in his favor (a master at training horses to peak when he wants them to). And as jockey Juan Hernandez put it, “He's really fast. A couple of jumps after we broke, he was in front already. I let him run because if you fight with him he tries to go faster. I let him have fun. I turned him loose and he never stopped.”

Forbidden Kingdom | Benoit Photo

Is the Derby winner wintering in New York? Belmont Park-based Early Voting is being aimed for the Wood Memorial, and a win there would run his lifetime record to 3-for-3, with all of those victories at Aqueduct. That would be quite a remarkable past performance block for a Derby starter, both in terms of brevity and geography. But because trainer Chad Brown is known for taking his time with developing horses, even a Wood victory might not guarantee that he tosses this $200,000 KEESEP into the Derby fray.

In some ways, Early Voting and stablemate Zandon are yins to each other's yangs. Early Voting owns two wins, including a nine-furlong stakes, but still comes across as light on experience. Zandon is a winner of just a MSW sprint, but he's a more proven commodity when it comes to handling in-race adversity, and he's already dealt with shipping for a big stakes. There's lots to like about each, but Early Voting does seem like the one whose potential for peaking might come later in the season.

The stock of athletic, nimble White Abarrio got boosted a bit over the weekend even though he only breezed at Gulfstream in anticipation for the Florida Derby. That's because two of the horses he beat in the Holy Bull S. last month came back to win stakes in their next starts. Simplification, second in the Holy Bull, returned victorious in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., while Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb) rebounded off a seventh-place try to score in the Battaglia S. at Turfway. “[Saturday's results] really franked the form and [it] gives you some confidence when you know the form is legit,” said trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. “We just need him to stay healthy and sound. We know he has the class and the ability.”

This son of Race Day ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) has a distinct home track advantage at Gulfstream (3-for-3), and his rematch with Simplification looms as one of the more anticipated rivalries of the prep season.

You could have almost put the proverbial cross-out line through Rattle N Roll's performance in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth before he even ran the race. Trainer Kenny McPeek didn't say it straight out, but he signaled pre-race that this son of Connect ($55,000 KEENOV; $210,000 KEESEP) wouldn't likely be fully cranked to fire his best shot off a five-month layoff. As we saw in his GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. win back on Oct. 9, this is a large-framed colt who needs the opportunity to uncoil for one prolonged bid. So being hemmed in traffic while racing over a short-stretch configuration on a surface that tilts in favor of early speed was probably not the ideal way to showcase Rattle N Roll's tactical attributes. He broke last, was guided to the rail, then incrementally advanced down the backstretch. A half mile out, he was eighth, yet only 2 1/2 lengths off the leaders in a tightly bunched field. But Rattle N Roll never truly dug in and fired at any point. I'm inclined to think his Fountain of Youth effort was too blah to be true, and that he'll be a tighter fighter at nine furlongs.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Belgrade (Hard Spun): This 2-for-2 Graham Motion trainee ($45,000 FTKSEL; $700,000 KEEJAN) listed as “likely” for Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby, which will be this colt's route debut.

Blackadder (Quality Road): Bullet move Monday morning for this $620,000 KEESEP Baffert colt who exits an off-pace win in the El Camino Real Derby.

Charge It (Tapit): Whisper Hill Farm homebred named 'TDN Rising Star' for Pletcher when daylight winner in a one-turn MSW mile at Gulfstream. He's nominated to the Blue Grass, so that could be a possible April prep.

Ethereal Road (Quality Road): Led from quarter pole until 50 yards from wire after wide journey in slowly run Rebel S.; GI Arkansas Derby next for this D. Wayne Lukas-trained $90,000 KEEEP colt.

In Due Time (Not This Time): Three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) ran second in Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. in first two-turn try. Trainer Kelly Breen: “The Florida Derby is in our backyard, but I won't say anything until I talk to the owners and come up with a game plan.”

Major General (Constitution): The 2-for-2 winner of the Sept. 18 Iroquois S. ($265,000 KEEJAN; $420,000 KEESEP) slated for Saturday's Tampa Derby off nearly six-month hiatus.

Morello (Classic Empire): Speed-centric colt ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) is now 3-for-3 in one-turn races after sharp 96-Beyer score in GIII Gotham S.

Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb): Runner-up in GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (FTKSEL $330,000) regrouped off dirt-eating Holy Bull S. seventh with points-earning score in Turfway's Battaglia S. over Tapeta.

Un Ojo (Laoban): New York-bred gelding has already locked up 54 qualifying points for Louisville, but must prove in Arkansas Derby that his 75-1 rain-soaked shocker in the GII Rebel S. was no fluke.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for Mar. 8 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby 12 for March 1

There was only one points-based GI Kentucky Derby prep last weekend, but even though it produced a 75-1 winner, there was no major shakeup within the ranks. This coming Saturday's quartet of qualifying points races, headlined by the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park, portends the possibility of some major moves in the near future, though.

1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-1-1, $301,100. Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 16.

This Giant's Causeway homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper looms as the horse to beat in the Mar. 12 GII Tampa Bay Derby. But let the bettor beware–the last four editions of that race have been won by longshots higher than 8-1. Feb. 26 marked the first breeze for Classic Causeway since his grace-under-pressure wiring of the Feb. 12 GIII Sam F. Davis S., and he clocked in at :48.50 for a measured half mile at Palm Meadows (25/120). Although this colt's only other win from four starts was a 90-Beyer, 6 1/2-length score (at 13-1 odds!) in his Saratoga unveiling, his third- and second-place tries in subsequent graded stakes were also impressive and very much useful from an experience-building perspective.

Classic Causeway got hung out to dry from post 13 when a beaten fave in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. Oct 9, then he stalked capably and was on the move with 'TDN Rising Star' and eventual winner Smile Happy (Runhappy) before yielding late in the in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Nov. 27. He didn't have to scrape the bottom of his stamina reserves when winning at 1 1/16 miles last month, and the deeper into the Derby season that he remains a top contender, the better his Giant's Causeway (out of a Thunder Gulch mare) breeding line will look come May 7.

2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 30.

We often hear trainers say some variation of “all options are open,” but that phrasing is not a cliché in the case of 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy. Here's a sky's-the-limit colt with some swagger to his style who'll be making his second start off of a better-than-it-appears 2022 debut, and he has the potential to scare off competition wherever trainer Kenny McPeek opts to send him. McPeek said Friday this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) will likely race next in either the GI Curlin Florida Derby Apr. 2 or the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. Apr. 9. The goal, he said, is to keep Smile Happy and stablemate Rattle N Roll (Connect) separated. Both are stabled at Gulfstream, and “you'll see one in the Blue Grass and one in the Florida Derby.”

Of Smile Happy's second-place effort in the Feb. 19 GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds, McPeek said, “He ran well in New Orleans. I think he could have been a tad closer, but the pace didn't set up well for him. He still showed real bravery to run late.”

'TDN Rising Star' Messier on Monday posted his first workout since a 15-length, 103-Beyer thrashing of the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Feb. 5. He breezed a half mile in :48 at Santa Anita (16/57). This $470,000 FTKSEL colt by Empire Maker clearly rates as the top West Coast sophomore threat, but currently remains ineligible to earn Derby qualifying points or to start at Churchill Downs because of trainer Bob Baffert's banishment by the track's corporate parent. Baffert is also trying to fight a separate Kentucky Horse Racing Commission suspension related to a drug positive in his 2021 Derby winner that could keep him out of action for a 90-day period that would run Mar. 8-June 5.

4) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $50,400. Last Start: 1st Tampa Bay Downs ALW. Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.

The physically imposing Emmanuel has been honed with two bullet breezes at Palm Beach Downs ahead of Saturday's off-Lasix start in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. This 'TDN Rising Star' has won his two combined starts by 10 1/4 lengths and has been on the front end at every call (although a rival in his Tampa allowance win briefly seized the lead between calls in upper stretch before Emmanuel snatched it right back). This $350,000 KEESEP son of More Than Ready has projected as a “speed of the speed” type of horse since a one-turn-mile MSW crushing three months ago at Gulfstream, and now he'll be asked to dive into the deep end of the Derby prep pool. Bearing the likely burden of favoritism will make the task even more difficult: The public's choice in the Fountain of Youth has gone down in defeat in four of the last five editions, managing only three wins from the last 15 renewals.

5) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 12.

Mo Donegal owns two victories sandwiched by a pair of thirds, and it wouldn't be a stretch to say he's packed more learning into those starts than any of the other contenders on this list. This $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo broke slowly from the rail in his 6 1/2-furlong debut, checked at the half-mile pole, then rallied with purpose. His MSW win at 1 1/16 miles featured a midpack rally to close an open-length gap late. In the GII Remsen S., he glided athletically past four frontrunners at the head of the lane before engaging in a tenacious stretch battle to beat well-regarded Zandon (Upstart) by a nose after :12.33 final furlong. His Holy Bull run produced a world of trip trouble, but Mo Donegal overcame being boxed in and getting hooked wide before unleashing a belated burst through the final sixteenth (that could have resulted in a better placing had the race not been run under a short-stretch configuration at Gulfstream).

6) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Possible for GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

Although Zandon is one of two horses ranked within the Top 12 not to have won beyond the maiden ranks (No. 12 is the other), his bandwagon is sagging under the weight of supporters piling on after his gallant blown-break rally in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. It's also a little odd to see that such a coveted mount has had a new jockey every time he's raced (Joel Rosario, John Velazquez, Jose Ortiz). Earlier this winter, trainer Chad Brown favorably compared Zandon to his 2017 GI Preakness S. winner Cloud Computing (both won their MSW debuts going short even though neither was cut out to be a sprinter). If this $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart goes next in the Apr. 9 GI Blue Grass S. as anticipated, he'd have only four starts under his belt if Brown then opts to go to Louisville with him. Since 1937, only three horses have won the Derby with four or fewer lifetime starts: Animal Kingdom (four), plus Justify and Big Brown (three each).

7) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $410,639. Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 64.

After Epicenter got nailed at the wire by an out-of-the-clouds longshot to lose the GIII Lecomte S. by a head back on Jan. 22, jockey Joel Rosario described him as a hard tryer who is “very straightforward, everything he does.” That description resonated after this $260,000 KEESEP colt wired the GII Risen Star S. in wrapped-up fashion in his next start. But the Lecomte might end up being the better barometer moving forward. An all-business Epicenter won several internal pace battles before turning back a wall of horses at the head of the lane, then won a prolonged stretch battle with the favorite. Yes, he got blindsided at the final jump by a pick-up-the-pieces 28-1 shot. But Epicenter galloped out stronger and longer after the wire. That's the type of total-race composure that is invaluable in Louisville, but that sophomores don't often display in the middle of winter. With two open-length wins and a narrow defeat over the Fair Grounds surface, this son of Not This Time will have a distinct home-court advantage heading into the Louisiana Derby.

8) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.

The write-up for Zandon (at No. 6 above) referenced that he could only have four lifetime starts heading into the Derby. But his stablemate, Early Voting, might only have three. The difference is this $200,000 KEESEP colt owns a stakes win and a 2-for-2 record. The little bit we've seen from this first-crop son of Gun Runner so far indicates he's a speed-centric threat capable of applying sustained pressure rather than making one flashy move, and his learning curve appears to be arcing upward. Early Voting is the lone Top 12 contender to be training in New York for the winter; unless trainer Chad Brown decides to enter him on Wednesday for Saturday's GIII Gotham S. (a cut back to a one-turn mile after a GIII Withers S. win at nine furlongs), it appears as if the Apr. 9 GII Wood Memorial S. will be his target. At the time Early Voting won the Withers, a legit criticism was that the field seemed weak. But this past Saturday's GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn featured a $152 upset by Withers runner-up Un Ojo (Laoban).

9) RATTLE N ROLL (c, Connect–Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg) O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-St. Simon Place (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $55,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $210,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-0-1, $379,460. Last Start: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity. Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 10.

Trainer Kenny McPeek keeps bringing up an interesting point on Twitter: Why aren't all points-eligible Derby preps run at equal weights? He cites, for example, that Rattle N Roll, as a graded stakes winner at a mile or over, will run off a five-month layoff in Saturday's Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. carrying the maximum 123 pounds. Others with lesser records will be eligible for weight breaks.

“Should my 3-year-olds be pointed to only preps that are equal weights?” McPeek wrote. “This has me thinking about doing exactly that.”

Regardless of the weight his colt will have to shoulder, McPeek probably wouldn't want to swap out this son of Connect ($55,000 KEENOV; $210,000 KEESEP) for any other Derby prospect. Rattle N Roll unwound from midpack to run off with the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. by 4 1/4 lengths back on Oct. 9, leaving current No.1 contender Classic Causeway in his wake. A foot abscess kept him out of the Breeders' Cup, and McPeek has brought him back slowly but steadily, with two breezes each at three, four and five furlongs since the end of January.

10) MAJOR GENERAL (c, Constitution–No Mo Lemons, by Uncle Mo) O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Circular Road Breeders (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $265,000 ylg '20 KEEJAN; $420,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $232,525. Last Start: 1st GIII Iroquois S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 10.

Trainer Todd Pletcher had some juggling to do among his sophomores at entry time for Saturday's Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., and with Emmanuel and Mo Donegal opting for Gulfstream, that put Major General on the traveling team headed for the Mar. 12 GII Tampa Bay Derby. This Constitution colt ($265,000 KEEJAN; $420,000 KEESEP) will be approaching nearly six months between starts, having wrapped up his juvenile season early on Sept. 18 with a victory in the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill Downs. That race resonated strongly from a visual perspective–Major General overcame a bobble at the break, lost momentum four wide through the first turn, engaged the favorite 2 1/2 furlongs out while not shying from rough contact in upper stretch, then still had enough left late overpower an onrushing closer. Yet the Iroquois has proven to be a weak race, with the horses Major General defeated that night under the Churchill lights now a collective 2-for-20 since then. And its 1:44.88 final clocking wasn't stellar either: In the prior race on the card, 2-year-old fillies in the GIII Golden Rod S. at the same 1 1/16 miles distance ran faster by 1.10 seconds.

Only No. 3-ranked Messier (103) and No. 7-ranked Epicenter (98), have run faster Beyers than White Abarrio (97) among all sophomores so far this season. After wiring the Holy Bull S. at 6-1 odds ahead of trip-troubled favorites, this son of Race Day ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) had his first breeze back since the win on Sunday, working three furlongs in :36.22 (4/29) at Gulfstream, where he is 3-for-3 and preparing for the Florida Derby.

“Going into his last race, he really didn't have ideal preparation,” said trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. “He actually missed two works. When you go into a race like that after missing two works, you're giving up some kind of fitness. When a horse runs such a big race and you don't have him as fit as he should be, I think it's taxing for a horse. You don't want to bring them back too quick off a layoff.”

12) GIANT GAME (c, Giant's Causeway–Game For More, by More Than Ready) O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-H. Allen Poindexter (KY). T-Dale Romans. Sales History: $500,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-0-3, $244,900. Last Start: 8th GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 4.

Would you breathe easier knowing that Giant Game's eighth-place finish in the Holy Bull S. was at least partially attributable to a displacement of his soft palate that has since been corrected by a common surgical procedure? Hopefully, this son of Giant's Causeway will be the one breathing easier in Saturday's Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Remember that airway problems plagued Medina Spirit around this time of the season last year (March operation to fix an entrapped epiglottis), and he recovered well enough to go from being a mid-tier California contender to crossing the wire first in the Kentucky Derby at 12-1 odds. This $500,000 FTKSEL colt ran an above-expectations third at 21-1 in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and he's gotten a lot thicker since last autumn according to trainer Dale Romans: “He's not the tallest horse in the world. He's a more racier Giant's Causeway than you usually see.”

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Belgrade (Hard Spun): We're edging into March and there isn't much room on the list for late bloomers, but this H. Graham Motion trainee ($45,000 at FTKSEL and just sold for $700,000 at KEEJAN) remains an intriguing wild card off a 2-for-2 start at Fair Grounds and Tampa.

Blackadder (Quality Road): This $620,000 KEESEP colt was back on Monday's work tab at Santa Anita following a late-run win in the Feb. 12 El Camino Real Derby.

Charge It (Tapit): Whisper Hill Farm homebred and 'TDN Rising Star' owns an 8 1/2-length, 93-Beyer win for Pletcher in a one-turn MSW mile at Gulfstream.

Ethereal Road (Quality Road): Gave up serious real estate while hooked four wide on both turns in the slowly run GII Rebel S., yet led from the quarter pole until 50 yards from the wire. Not a bad effort for a recent 19-1 MSW grad. GI Arkansas Derby is next for this D. Wayne Lukas-trained $90,000 KEEEP colt.

In Due Time (Not This Time): Three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) rides an upward-trending speed figures arc (that tops out with a 92 Beyer) into stakes company with a start in Saturday's Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S.

Un Ojo (Laoban): This one-eyed, New York-bred gelding leapfrogged the leaderboard to snare second on the qualifying points list after a 75-1 shocker in the rain-soaked Rebel. He saved ground every step and came to life 50 yards before the finish to post an 84-Beyer upset; 3-year-old fillies in a companion stakes ran nearly a second faster for same distance earlier on that card. Onward to the Arkansas Derby.

The post TDN Derby 12 for March 1 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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