Tag: Derby Top 12

TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 for May 5

The last couple of anticipatory days prior to the GI Kentucky Derby can seem like a longer wait than the six-month prep season that preceded it. Here are the final TDN rankings, listed in “likeliest winner” order:

1) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-1-1, $713,000. Last Start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 114. Post 10, 3-1.

Zandon enters the Derby having rightfully earned kingpin status. A beautifully balanced, nearly black colt by Upstart ($170,000 KEESEP), this Chad Brown trainee is light on experience (just four races), but heavy on the “street smarts” he acquired via adversity-overcoming lessons in a trio of nine-furlong graded stakes. Zandon is capable of torqueing into a “Wow!” gear, and I suspect we haven't yet seen the outer limits of his power reserves. He has blossomed from being a scrappy, stretched-out sprinter who put up a spirited fight when second in the roughly run stretch battle of last December's GII Remsen S., to being a big-run closer who now more assertively shoulders rivals out of the way, like when rallying from last in the GI Blue Grass S. a month ago.

Yet, despite his lofty ranking as the likeliest winner, I still have reservations about backing Zandon in the mutuels at or below his morning-line price of 3-1. That's not so much because of a lack of faith in Zandon. The dicey part of the proposition is the same one that emerges every year: Betting any underlaid sophomore in a chaotic 20-horse race over 10 furlongs is usually not the most sustainable move for your bankroll. Zandon's evolving tactics switch–from being a stalker to closing from farther off the tailgate–also gives cause for pause: The last eight Derbies have been won by speed-centric horses who either set or forced the pace.

2) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $1,010,639. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. KY Derby Points: 164. Post 3, 7-2.

Epicenter is the rare “what you see is what you get” Derby contender. Flash and panache aren't his style. But this $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time is as reliable and consistent as they come, with strengths rooted in being able to withstand fraction after fraction of up-tempo splits on the front end while still having enough stamina left to spar through the stretch with anyone who's challenged him so far. He's only lost once (and then just barely) in the last half-year, his Beyer Speed Figures have increased in every start, and Epicenter owns a key victory over both the Nos. 1 and 3 horses on this list.

The main arguments against his chances of winning have to do with historical trends. Epicenter's six-week break between his final prep and the Derby represents a race-spacing pattern that has only produced two winners on the first Saturday in May since 1929. The GII Louisiana Derby is also not a springboard to Kentucky Derby success, with only two horses in 128 years winning both races. Most daunting of all is trainer Steve Asmussen's 0-for-23 record in the Derby. Even if you're willing to dismiss that stat as aberrational because Asmussen has started so many no-hope longshots over the years, it's still a metric that demands respect–especially if the horse in question is the second favorite on the morning line.

3) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-2-0, $549,810. Last Start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 70. Post 5, 20-1.

Once we get beyond the two obvious favorites, the horses ranked at Nos. 3 through 7 shake out as a formidable group of logical contenders, none of whom would be a major surprise to win the Derby. 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy is a case in point. How about 20-1 on the morning line for a colt ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) who came into the year sporting two visually explosive victories as a juvenile, then had a pair of logical excuses in his two sophomore preps? Smile Happy waited too long to move when second in the GII Risen Star S. behind Epicenter, then hit a nice cruising gear but came up short in the stretch when Zandon bested him in the Blue Grass (also factor in that Smile Happy was not cranked to the hilt, training-wise, for either of those efforts).

His sire, Runhappy, was the 2015 champion sprinter, which isn't exactly a plus at 10 furlongs. But this colt's damsire, Pleasant Tap, was third in the 1990 Derby and won champion older horse honors in '92, and Derby winners like Super Saver and Pleasant Colony aren't too far back on each side of Smile Happy's pedigree. In fact, Super Saver in 2010 was the last horse to cross the finish wire first in the Derby who did not previously win a race at age three–just like Smile Happy is attempting to do this year.

4) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-3-3-0, $435,600. Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. KY Derby Points: 40. Post 6, 8-1.

I'm grudgingly respectful of 'TDN Rising Star' Messier, but still not completely sold on him from a pari-mutuel “trust” standpoint. Which colt will show up on Saturday? The one who couldn't seal the deal in a weak, five-horse GII Los Alamitos Futurity as the odds-on favorite? Or the one who unleashed a 103-Beyer when winning besting a (similarly anemic) five-horse crew by 15 lengths in the GIII Robert B. Lewis?

The closer we get to the Derby, the more inclined I am to think that a more polished version of Messier will emerge, and that performance is likely to be based on what he showed us in the GI Santa Anita Derby. This $470,000 FTKSEL colt forced a favored pacemaker through demanding fractions, then had to work hard to try and repulse stablemate and fellow 'Rising Star' Taiba (Gun Runner), who eventually wore down Messier in a length-of-stretch slugfest. But considering that race was the first in eight weeks for this Empire Maker colt, the 99-Beyer try should serve as a very effective tightener. And John Velazquez on a speed-oriented Derby starter? That combo has come up smelling like roses in three of the last five years.

5) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-3-1-2, $515,350. Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 74. Post 13, 20-1.

Simplification joins Smile Happy and Messier, both ranked right above him, as a potentially overlooked horse who's most recent losing effort was much better than it appears on paper. This son of Not This Time ($50,000 RNA at KEENOV) got embroiled in two separate internal speed battles in the GI Florida Derby that sapped his chances for engaging in a more robust stretch run, and if you're in a forgiving mood, Simplification's overall dossier that features five 90+ Beyer tries should make his juicy 20-1 morning-line pricing look attractive. He has, in some ways, rounded into a more natural stalker than some of his contemporaries, so Jose Ortiz should have tactical options in trying to attain a good first-flight spot from post 13.

Simplification | Coady Photo

6) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-0-2, $621,800. Last Start: 1st GII Wood Memorial S. KY Derby Points: 112. Post 1, 20-1.

I had this son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP) solidly entrenched at No. 3 in the weeks before the post draw. But getting stuck with the one hole in a 20-horse crush cost Mo Donegal a few percentage points toward his likelihood of winning. Post one is never ideal in the Derby. But for a colt like Mo who always seems to be snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, the negative effects of being potentially pinned down inside are likely to be amplified. The last Derby winner to break from the rail was Ferdinand in 1986, and it's only been done seven other times since the advent of using the starting gate in the 1930 Derby.

But one advantage for this quick-on-his-feet colt will be Mo's proven ability to move nimbly and with sustained late-race focus, a tactical combination that is unmatched in this field. You want raw numbers to back that up? His winning moves into identical, ground-gaining :12.33 final furlongs in both the GII Remsen S. and the GII Wood Memorial S. represented the quickest final eighths among all 2021-22 preps at nine furlongs.

7) TIZ THE BOMB (c, Hit It a Bomb–Tiz the Key, by Tiznow) O-Magdalena Racing, Lessee. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales History: $330,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 8-5-1-0, $1,044,401. Last Start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks. KY Derby Points: 110. Post 9, 30-1.

There's plenty of upside to this $330,000 FTKSEL colt by Hit It a Bomb if you're willing to avoid getting hung up on the overblown “he won't handle dirt” argument. A deep (by modern standards) foundation of eight races, plenty of experience negotiating large fields (Tiz has won grass and Tapeta stakes in fields numbering 10, 12 and 14 horses), and a knack for (almost) always gaining ground in the final furlong are all in his favor.

The glaring lone exception was a seventh-place try, beaten 20 1/4 lengths, in the GIII Holy Bull S. Feb. 5 over the Gulfstream dirt. But that was a kickback-eating try off a three-month layoff against a talented field that subsequently produced four next-out stakes winners (including Tiz himself). His versatile running style should set up pace-pressing positioning, as trainer Kenny McPeek has indicated he'd like this colt a little closer to the front-end action from post nine.

8) BARBER ROAD (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image) O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY). T-John Alexander Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 8-2-3-1, $650,720. Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby. KY Derby Points: 58. Post 14, 30-1.

In case the skies open up, know that among the Derby's 22 entrants, Barber Road owns the best performance on an outright sloppy track. Several other contenders have won and hit the board on “good” dirt surfaces that were retaining some moisture, but this Race Day gray's second in the Smarty Jones S. back on Jan. 1 rates as the best performance over puddles.

This $15,000 KEENOV colt is an overachieving grinder with a knack for hitting the board despite repeated run-ins with trip trouble. Barber Road has an eight-race base that includes a win and a second at Churchill. Yet he hasn't won since Nov. 10, and he took the easiest prep path to Louisville by campaigning against subpar stakes fields at Oaklawn all winter and spring. Go heavier underneath in exotics than on top to win.

9) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 40. Post 8, 20-1.

Among the three Derby entrants this year who will go into the gate with three or fewer lifetime starts, 'TDN Rising Star' Charge It is the most likely to make an impact. Since 1937, only Justify in 2018 and Big Brown in 2008 have won the Derby off only three prior races, so this Whisper Hill Farm homebred by Tapit is up against the grain of convention. Charge It's not fully focused stretch run in the Florida Derby earned him a commendable second. But any bet on him this Saturday must be based on the unclear projection that he's overcome his greenness via training over the last five weeks.

There is some pedigree promise: Charge It's second dam is multiple Grade I route victress and blue-hen mare Take Charge Lady, whose progeny include the GI Travers S. winner and 3-year-old champ of 2013, Will Take Charge.

10) TAIBA (c, Gun Runner–Needmore Flattery, by Flatter) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc. B-Bruce C Ryan (KY). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $490,200. Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. KY Derby Points: 100. Post 12, 12-1.

Generational super-freak or over-hyped horse being asked for too much too soon? 'TDN Rising Star' Taiba ($140,000 FTKOCT; $1.7 million FTFMAR) is the compelling conundrum of this year's Derby based on two scorching triple-digit Beyer wins that have suggested sky's-the-limit potential.

But this Gun Runner colt's career arc dates only to Mar. 5, and also includes a brief stint on Santa Anita's vet list for being “unsound” after his debut win. He later posted three workouts and rather unexpectedly won the Santa Anita Derby with a smooth, sustained stretch run that looked like it was executed by a more seasoned horse.

Now he'll be shipping for the first time and dealing with a crowded field under possibly wet conditions–all experiences he's yet to encounter in SoCal. Since we don't have much to go on based on Taiba's scant past performances, we have to scrutinize them in more granular fashion. In that vein, it's worth noting that all six rivals Taiba beat in his maiden win have come back to make subsequent starts. Not a single one has won (two were second), and none of them even went off favored despite exiting what appeared to be the most powerful MSW race for 3-year-olds at the meet.

Taiba | Coady Photo

11) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC & La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 112. Post 15, 10-1.

White Abarrio's pros are efficiency, athleticism, and a knack for finding ways to win even when he seems overmatched on paper. His cons include the fact that he's an apparent horse-for-the-course at Gulfstream who had the good fortune to have two ultra-clean winning trips in stakes while a number of his rivals either had trip woes or got cooked by unrealistic pace commitments. This Race Day colt ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) has paired 97 and 96 Beyers in two starts at age three, but the final furlong of his Florida Derby victory was an underwhelming :14.09, and the late stages of the Kentucky Derby are bound to unfold in much faster fashion. We're now going on 17 years–encompassing 33 starters–since the last gray horse won the Derby (Giacomo at 50-1 in 2005).

12) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 6-3-1-1, $521,100. Last Start: 11th GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 66. Post 17, 30-1.

There's no getting around the fact that Classic Causeway's caving from first to last in the Florida Derby is an ugly past-performance line. And when you try and backfit that race against his two tepid-number wirings (88 and 86 Beyers) in two stakes at Tampa, it also doesn't help that the horses he beat in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. and the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby have since compiled a collective 0-for-14 record in their next starts.

But if you want to glean some positivity beyond those blah stats, consider that Classic Causeway's visuals in those victories were extremely eye-catching based on his ability to break like a rocket and still finish up in grace-under-pressure fashion. Back in January, I wrote that the “Giant's Causeway out of a Thunder Gulch mare breeding line that anchors this colt's pedigree is only going to play into Classic Causeway's favor the deeper he advances on the Triple Crown path.” That statement remains true today for this homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper, who will likely try to spearhead the field from post 17.

13) CROWN PRIDE (JPN) (c, Reach the Crown {Jpn}–Emmy's Pride {Jpn}, by King Kamehameha {Jpn}) O-Teruya Yoshida. B-Shadai Farm (Jpn). T-Koichi Shintani. Lifetime Record: GSW-UAE, SW-Jpn, 4-3-0-0, $734,569. Last Start: 1st G2 UAE Derby. KY Derby Points: 100. Post 7, 20-1.

Crown Pride (Jpn), who celebrated his third birthday May 4, has gotten rave reviews since arriving at Churchill for his poise, posture and footwork during morning training, which has been a unique mixture of dressage-style warming-up and more frequent workouts. And no doubt Japan-based horses have been on a global roll at major racing events over the past six months, with big wins on the Breeders' Cup and Dubai World Cup programs.

He's 3-for-4 on dirt with all three victories at nine furlongs or greater, and a trouble excuse for his sixth when only beaten 3 1/2 lengths. Crown Pride got solidly bumped at the break of the G2 UAE Derby, then unwound with a long drive on his incorrect lead in deep stretch that reeled in the pacemaker on a track that was favorable to speed.

Japan's dominant rider, Christophe Lemaire, will be aboard in Louisville, hoping to break two negative historic trends: Japan-based horses have gone 0-for-3 in the Derby, and winners of the UAE Derby are 0-for-11 (with the best Derby finish among them a sixth, along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try).

14) PIONEER OF MEDINA (c, Pioneerof the Nile–Lights of Medina, by Eskendereya) O-Sumaya U.S. Stable. B-International Equities Holding, Inc. (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $485,000 RNA ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 6-2-1-2, $181,350. Last Start: 3rd GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby. KY Derby Points: 25. Post 11, 30-1.

Pioneer of Medina, a $485,000 RNA at KEESEP, will be looking to avenge the second-place finish by his sire, Pioneerof the Nile, in the 2009 Derby. This colt was third and fourth on the Louisiana prep route to Louisville–not badly beaten, lengths-wise, but not a high-impact player, either. He'll be taking blinkers off Saturday after four races with them (they were added after start number two and propelled him to MSW and allowance wins). Trainer Todd Pletcher is technically 0-for-10 when removing blinkers in graded stakes over the past five years. But that small sample also includes the DQ of Vino Rosso from first in the 2019 GI Jockey Club Gold Cup–and that colt in his next start won the GI Breeder's Cup Classic sans blinkers, too.

15) TAWNY PORT (c, Pioneerof the Nile–Livi Makenzie, by Macho Uno) O-Peachtree Stable. B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY). T-Brad H. Cox. Sales History: $430,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $427,000. Last Start: 1st GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. KY Derby Points: 60. Post 18, 30-1.

Tawny Port ($430,000 KEESEP) started his career with two Tapeta wins, then was not disgraced when fifth, beaten 7 3/4 lengths against Epicenter, Smile Happy and Zandon in New Orleans. This Pioneerof the Nile son then chased Tiz the Bomb home when second in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. at Turfway and was four wide on both bends when winning the GIII Lexington S. in a cutback to 1 1/16 miles. Maybe he'll turn out to be this year's Charismatic, who upset the 1999 Derby at 31-1 odds and remains the only horse to ever parlay wins in the Lexington S. and the Derby.

16) CYBERKNIFE (c, Gun Runner–Awesome Flower, by Flower Alley) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Kenneth L. & Sarah K. Ramsey (KY). T-Brad H. Cox. Sales History: $400,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-2-0, $860,000. Last Start: 1st GI Arkansas Derby. KY Derby Points: 100. Post 16, 20-1.

The GI Arkansas Derby winner has been described kindly as a “high-energy horse.” But earlier in the season trainer Brad Cox minced no words in saying he's a “tough horse to deal with.” Getting DQ'd from a win, tossing his jock in the post parade, and barreling through the pack while swerving through the lane have all been part of the makeup of this $400,000 FTKSEL colt. He's improving at the right time of year, but still, you have to wonder if Cyberknife is bred to be a later-than-May bloomer.

His sire, Gun Runner, wasn't a dominant force at age three, but he evolved into one over the course of the next year. And Cyberknife's damsire, Flower Alley, was a no-impact ninth in the 2005 Derby who peaked later that summer by sweeping the GII Jim Dandy S. and GI Travers S. at Saratoga.

Cyberknife | Coady Photo

17) ZOZOS (c, Munnings–Papa's Forest, by Forestry) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Barry & Joni Butzow (KY). T-Brad H. Cox. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-2-1-0, $291,200. Last Start: 2nd GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby. KY Derby Points: 40. Post 19, 20-1.

This 'TDN Rising Star' and homebred for Barry and Joni Butzow was on his left lead through the stretch of his MSW win, uncorked a powerful turn of foot at the quarter pole of his allowance victory, then led for as long as he could through the long Fair Grounds stretch in the Louisiana Derby before the much more experienced Epicenter reeled him in. That's a nice block of races to build on, but his overall grade is still “incomplete.” Zozos's sire, grandsire and damsire (Munnings, Speightstown and Forestry) all were crack sprinters, so there's not much Derby-distance promise in his immediate pedigree. Neither post 19 nor the historically non-productive six-week gap between starts will help.

18) ETHEREAL ROAD (c, Quality Road–Sustained, by War Front) O-Julie Gilbert & Aaron Sones. B-Paul Pompa Jr. (KY). T-D. Wayne Lukas. Sales History: $90,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 7-1-1-1, $294,545. Last Start: 4th GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. KY Derby Points: 22. Post 20, 30-1.

Ethereal Road will be making his third start in four weeks on Saturday because he spent the month of April scrambling for qualifying points. But you have to go back to January and February to find his most competitive races. This D. Wayne Lukas-trained $90,000 KEESEP colt gave up four paths of real estate on both turns in the slowly run GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn, yet he led from the quarter pole until 50 yards before the wire in what amounted to a pretty nice try coming off a maiden win. He's drawn way out wide in post 20, but has ample experience in sizable fields, with all seven of his races featuring 11 or 12 horses.

19) SUMMER IS TOMORROW (c, Summer Front–Always Tomorrow, by Badge of Silver) O-Michael Hilary & Negar Burke. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Bhupat Seemar. Sales History: $25,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA '20 KEESEP; £120,000 2yo '21 ARQMAY. Lifetime Record: GSP-UAE, 7-2-3-0, $267,606. Last Start: 2nd G2 UAE Derby. KY Derby Points: 40. Post 4, 30-1.

With a six-sprint foundation at Meydan and Jebel Ali and a Derby gate draw of post four, there should be no doubt that the strategy for this late Triple Crown supplement and three-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA at KEESEP; $169,743 ARQDEA) will be to send and try to stave off the competition for as long as he's able. Over 1 3/16 miles in the UAE Derby, this son of Summer Front sought the lead and held well until the deep stages. A reality check looms Saturday against a far superior field that will include multiple waves of pace-pressers and closers.

20) HAPPY JACK (c, Oxbow–Tapitstry, by Tapit) O/B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Doug F. O'Neill. Sales History: $0 RNA wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-0-2, $182,200. Last Start: 3rd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. KY Derby Points: 30. Post 2, 30-1.

Blinkers were removed then added over the past several races, and will now come off again for Happy Jack, a Calumet Farm homebred who got buried down in post two after qualifying for the Derby with points earned by running a distant third in the Santa Anita Derby. He broke his maiden sprinting in a 24-1 debut on Lasix, but has been trounced by 49 1/2 lengths in three subsequent non-Lasix stakes routes. Sire Oxbow won the 2013 GI Preakness S. for Calumet at 15-1 odds, and Happy Jack is out of a Tapit mare, so bloodlines are theoretically in his favor. Jockey Rafael Bejarano is 0-for-11 in the Derby.

The also-eligibles, listed on the program as No. 21 Rich Strike (Keen Ice) and No. 22 Rattle N Roll (Connect), can draw into the Derby if late scratches occur.

The post TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 for May 5 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 for April 19

With all the points-earning preps completed, the GI Kentucky Derby picture moves into “microscope mode” as we approach the two-week mark. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. Access that list here.

1) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-1-1, $713,000. Last Start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7. KY Derby Points: 114.

Zandon won sprinting at first asking while never more than two lengths off a rapid tempo. Stretched to nine furlongs in the GII Remsen S., he stalked the pace and was in it to win it right down to the final jump. Then he started rallying from farther back. This $170,000 KEESEP colt broke in the air, got relegated to last, then accelerated widest on the far turn when third in the GII Risen Star S. His GI Blue Grass S. score was accomplished via meticulous last-to-first handling by Flavien Prat. So which running style will Zandon deploy on Derby day? Handicappers considering backing (or betting against) him will want to know, especially in light of the fact that the last eight Derbies have been won by horses either on the lead or not far from it. It's easy to fall in love with closers because of the dramatic nature of their runs. But if you marveled at Prat's deft outside-inside-outside maneuvering through the far turn and upper stretch of the Blue Grass, you can also envision how that same strategy might result in getting boxed or blocked in the heavy traffic of a 20-horse field. That's why speed is so effective in the Derby. The very nature of out-front positioning affords those horses the advantage of leaving chaos behind-where deep closers are more likely to encounter it.

2) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $1,010,639. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 164.

Epicenter will have a tactical edge over Zandon on Derby day because he's a more proven commodity who has shown over a larger sample of races that he can consistently attain optimal positioning. This $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time doesn't need to lead the cavalry charge into the first turn. But he does figure to be forcing the issue, and the fact that he's been the leader at the eighth pole in every one of his races (except his maiden sprint debut) suggests he's highly likely to be 1-2-3 turning for home. But you have to wonder if history will be Epicenter's friend as he tries to gut out that final quarter mile. A six-week break between a final prep and the Derby has only yielded two winners on the first Saturday in May since 1929, and only two horses since the 1894 inception of the GII Louisiana Derby have also crossed the finish wire first in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen, despite his many accomplishments, is 0-for-23 in the Derby. But that unappealing stat is largely based on his having started so many “just taking a shot” horses over the past two decades who weren't true contenders. Outside of Gun Runner (third in 2016) and Curlin (third in 2007), there are no A-list luminaries among Asmussen's mostly forgettable list of Derby also-rans.

3) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY).
T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-0-2, $621,800. Last Start:
1st GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

If Zandon's strong suit is athleticism fused with fighting spirit, and Epicenter's is rock-solid consistency, Mo Donegal rates an edge in terms of late-race torque that is both visually impressive and backed by strong final-eighth times in nine-furlong races. His identical, ground-gaining :12.33 final furlongs in both the GII Remsen S. and the GII Wood Memorial S. are the quickest among all 2021-22 Derby preps at that distance. This $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo has never lost ground in the stretch runs of his five career races, and in each of his three wins he had to wrest control from leaders who punched back with purpose. But from a historical perspective, it's been a long time since the path to Louisville ran through New York. Only three horses in the last 58 years-Thunder Gulch, Go for Gin and Pleasant Colony-have parlayed Remsen and Derby wins. It's also been 22 years since the Wood winner went on to capture the Derby (Fusaichi Pegasus). Yet if Mo Donegal were to win the Derby, he'd match Pleasant Colony's rare 1980-81 triple of winning the Remsen, Wood and the Derby.

4) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-3-1-2, $515,350. Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 74.

The road to the Derby is annually littered with horses who appear dominant in Florida's shorter winter preps yet can't carry their winning to 10 furlongs in the spring. Can Simplification jump that gap? The No. 4 spot in this week's rankings is where “raw ability” gives way to “the promise of possibility.” This son of Not This Time ($50,000 RNA at KEENOV) was a starter in all four of Gulfstream's sophomore preps for the Derby-wiring the one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man S.; botching the break but closing well to get second in the GIII Holy Bull S., then winning the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. with a prolonged bid from three-eighths out. His beaten-fave third in the GI Florida Derby has a legit excuse attached to it, as Simplification sparred with a sacrificial pacemaker, then got immediately hooked into a second duel when jockey Jose Ortiz decided to fully unleash him with 4 1/2 furlongs left in the race. A Derby scenario in which Simplification gets asked for his best run a little later might be better suited to his still-evolving stalking style.

5) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY).
T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $321,500. Last Start:
2nd GII Wood Memorial S. Next Start: TBD. KY Derby Points: 50.

Early Voting is the highest-ranked horse on this list whose connections have yet to fully commit to a start in the Derby. Trainer Chad Brown his cited Early Voting's light experience (just three races) and a desire to see where this $200,000 KEESEP frontrunner fits in the Derby's projected pace as several reasons for waiting to make a decision. Early Voting set a spirited tempo despite being relatively unpressured in the early stages of the Wood Memorial, and Jose Ortiz wisely chose not to overextend this colt in a late-race stretch skirmish when second against the more experienced Mo Donegal. If Early Voting presses on to the Derby, Ortiz will face a commitment choice, as he also has been riding No. 4-ranked Simplification.

6) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-2-0, $549,810. Last Start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 70.

It's tough to knock Smile Happy's two sophomore starts. But it's also difficult say with confidence this 'TDN Rising Star' has demonstrated significant progression off his 2-for-2 juvenile campaign. That juxtaposition of undefeated form at age two and a winless season so far at age three is likely to get you about 12-1 on Derby day if you're willing to bet trainer Kenny McPeek has, in fact, precisely honed this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) to peak over 10 furlongs. Smile Happy was a hard-charging second in the GII Risen Star S. after jockey Corey Lanerie waited too long to uncoil on the far turn, then split horses in upper stretch and ran up on the heels of a tiring rival. In the Blue Grass S., Lanerie's move was timed much better. But after Smile Happy snatched the lead from the pacemaker at Keeneland's quarter pole, Zandon blew by him at the furlong marker. A clean trip in the Derby puts a tighter Smile Happy in the hunt for getting first run at the pacemakers on the far turn.

7) TIZ THE BOMB (c, Hit It a Bomb–Tiz the Key, by Tiznow) O-Magdalena Racing, Lessee. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales History: $330,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 8-5-1-0, $1,044,401. Last Start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, TP, Apr. 2. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 110.

Tiz the Bomb has eight races of experience, with seven starts at a mile or longer. He's won over dirt, over both “good” and “firm” turf, over the undulating Kentucky Downs lawn, and over Turfway's Tapeta. His past performances show the most experience in large fields-he won a 14-horse Grade II stakes at age two, and has three other times finished first or second in races with 12 and 13 starters. Yet despite this broad base of experience, this $330,000 FTKSEL colt by Hit It a Bomb figures to be “on sale” in the Derby mutuels simply because he ran one poor, kickback-eating dirt race off a three-month layoff (the Feb. 5 GIII Holy Bull S., from which the first three finishers all returned to win graded stakes). Based on that one aberrational performance, bettors are likely to deduce that Tiz the Bomb will be averse to the dirt at Churchill. And he just might be-you never know until the gates open. But you'll be getting an overlaid 25-1 or so to find out of his multi-surface staying power works on the Louisville dirt, as opposed to the 15-1 price that more realistically corresponds to Tiz the Bomb's chances.

8) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

A bet on 'TDN Rising Star' Charge It in the Derby will require a leap of faith that he has matured significantly through the month of April and into the first week of May. You can see the raw makings of a really nice racehorse based on just three starts. And Charge It's pedigree (by Tapit and anchored by distance-loving second dam Take Charge Lady) definitely has longer-the-better underpinnings. But while his second in the GI Florida Derby was commendable considering it was his initial two-turn try and first race against winners, Charge it was not fully focused through the lane, and the Florida Derby's blah final furlong in :14.09 was the second-slowest final eighth among all nine-furlong preps this season (behind only the muddy GIII Withers S. in :14.15). In addition, 13 horses have now run back out of Charge It's two MSW races, and not a single one of those rivals won their next start, raising legit quality-of-competition questions.

9) TAIBA (c, Gun Runner–Needmore Flattery, by Flatter) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc. B-Bruce C Ryan (KY). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $490,200. Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby.

We have owner Amr Zedan diplomatically asserting he's not out to avenge his under-appeal Derby DQ of now-deceased Medina Spirit–even after having gone against the advice of his trainer by insisting on a Santa Anita Derby start so Taiba could earn last-chance Kentucky Derby qualifying points. We also have Hall-of-Fame jockey Mike Smith, who's about to be asked ceaselessly over the next 2 1/2 weeks to compare this precocious 'TDN Rising Star' to Justify, the dazzling Triple Crown winner he rode in 2018. So what will be the result when the narrative of redemption gets coupled in mainstream media with the sky's-the-limit appeal of a flashy, undefeated prospect? Probably the most overbet Derby phenom in a long time. Yes, this son of Gun Runner ($140,000 FTKOCT; $1.7 million FTFMAR) is worthy of superlatives after posting back-to-back triple-digit Beyers in both a MSW sprint and the Santa Anita Derby, a race in which this colt sparred the entire length of the lane against a more seasoned stablemate. But Taiba would truly have to be a once-in-a-generation outlier to thrive against top-of-the-crop competition at 10 furlongs in lifetime start number three, all while shipping for the first time and experiencing a field far larger and far more talented than anything he's faced in limited SoCal action. Too much too soon is the verdict here-although admittedly, it would be pretty neat to witness Taiba shatter conventional wisdom.

10) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-3-3-0, $435,600. Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

I'm attempting to take a more forgiving look at Messier's Santa Anita Derby second, a race I initially described as a “failure to slam the door.” After all, this $470,000 FTKSEL 'TDN Rising Star' forced a favored pacemaker through robust fractions, then, somewhat unexpectedly, had to work hard to try and swat away a more-resilient-than-expected Taiba (Messier initially put away that stablemate in upper stretch, but Taiba re-engaged and powered past). Considering the Santa Anita Derby was the first outing in eight weeks for this Empire Maker colt-and taking into account that Messier was unlikely to have been fully cranked for the effort-the try wasn't half bad (99 Beyer). But the sticking point I can't quite overcome is Messier's penchant for losing at low odds. He's twice been beaten at fifty cents on the dollar, including a no-excuse letdown in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity when he was one-paced after getting a strong second run on the spent speed.

11) BARBER ROAD (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image) O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY). T-John Alexander Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 8-2-3-1, $650,720. Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 58.

Barber Road ($15,000 KEENOV) isn't going to wow anybody in the Derby. But this gritty Race Day gray might be capable of hammering past a good portion of the field with his usual late-race determination, and he figures to be picking off horses when distanced-challenged contenders are bailing out. Of all the entrants who'll start north of 40-1 in this year's Derby, I respect this John Ortiz trainee the most. He lost a shoe at some point in the Arkansas Derby, then lost momentum a furlong from the finish when he ran up on the heels of a caving pacemaker. But Barber Road was keen to re-rally, and he prevailed in the “race within the race” by nailing the favorite in a tight place photo. This is all pretty good no-pressure Derby mojo for a colt who's already bankrolled more than 36 times his auction price.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC & La Milagrosa Stable, LLC.
B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

The Florida Derby has produced more Kentucky Derby winners (24) than any other stakes, and the winners of that Gulfstream prep are usually well backed in Louisville. But this year White Abarrio ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) figures to be the first Florida Derby winner since Materiality in 2015 to go off at 10-1 or higher in the wagering. This athletically nimble Race Day gray has some “punch above his weight” appeal, and we've already seen him beat such well-regarded contenders as Simplification (twice), Mo Donegal, Charge It and Tiz the Bomb. But this Gulfstream specialist (4-for-4) benefitted from ideal circumstances in both of this graded stakes victories, making you wonder if he can improve further under the duress of 10 furlongs. In the traffic-snarled Holy Bull S., White Abarrio enjoyed clear sailing up front while four of his main foes encountered trip woes. And in the Florida Derby, three of White Abarrio's rivals were casualties of poorly executed pace decisions that led to two separate, self-immolating speed duels before the field hit the far turn.

Potentially rounding out the starting gate…

13) Zozos (Munnings): It was interesting that Zozos got bet down to 5-2 second choice behind even-money Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby. That was both his stakes debut and first non-Lasix race after winning his maiden and an allowance, and Zozos had never led the field in the early stages of either of those first two victories. But this 'TDN Rising Star' and homebred for Barry and Joni Butzow forged straight to the front and held well after setting legit splits under two-pronged pressure from a hounding 15-1 long shot and the more intimidating Epicenter, who eventually powered past for the win. Right now Zozos is a true wild card for the Derby. Is he a piece of the pace? A capable presser on the improve? His sire, grandsire, and damsire (Munnings, Speightstown, Forestry) all made their marks sprinting, so there's not much distance-centric foundation in his immediate family.

14) Morello (Classic Empire): A points qualifier who remains uncommitted, Morello ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) went off as the undefeated favorite in the Wood Memorial, but he hit the side of the gate at the break and never really recovered. He's 3-for-3 in one-turn races, but untested in terms of both distance and his ability to handle elite-level competition.

15) Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}): He won't truly turn three until May 5, but the GII UAE Derby victor is 3-for-4 on dirt with all three victories at nine furlongs or greater. Since the 2000 inception of the UAE Derby, 11 of its winners have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish among them was sixth, along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try.

16) Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile): This $430,000 KEESEP colt has some likeable attributes, but not enough to elevate him to a serious Derby threat. He started his career with two Tapeta wins; was not disgraced when a 24-1 fifth, beaten 7 3/4 lengths on the dirt against Epicenter, Smile Happy and Zandon, then chased Tiz the Bomb home when second at Turfway. He closed capably on Saturday to win the GIII Lexington S. over 1 1/16 miles, cornering four wide on both turns. Originally with the pace, Tawny Port backed off, then sprang a late run with his head cocked toward the stands while the only one gaining ground on a tiring leader. This colt finished well, but he faced no daunting late-race competition over Keeneland's short-stretch configuration.

17) Cyberknife (Gun Runner): In the Arkansas Derby, jockey Florent Geroux sensed Cyberknife was keen early. So he opted out of dueling through a first quarter in an unsustainable :22.11, then barreled through three successively slower quarter-mile splits and a final eighth in a so-so :13.18 to win going away while shifting and drifting through the lane. Not exactly a work of art for this $400,000 FTKSEL colt, but that initial Grade I impression won't matter much if Cyberknife keeps winning and his Beyers remain on an upward arc (last three: 72, 87, 92).

18) Un Ojo (Laoban): The 75-1 winner of the GII Rebel S. has only one functioning eye because of an unfortunate run-in with a tree branch as a yearling. The last time there was a right-eye-only horse in the Derby was in 2017, when Patch ran an admirable 14th despite drawing outermost gate 20. Because his “overcoming adversity” story kept getting repeated, Patch went off way, way underlaid in the betting at 14-1. Will similar support be bestowed upon Un Ojo? We know he can save ground and make one chug-home run. Rain would also be a plus-his two best races occurred on a muddy track (second in the Withers) and on an Oaklawn surface listed as “fast” when the Rebel commenced in a just-starting downpour.

19) Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front): Seven races in Dubai at Meydan and Jebel Ali since Dec. 2, with the first six of them at seven furlongs or shorter (two wins). Three-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA at KEESEP; $169,743 ARQDEA) sought the lead in the UAE Derby and held well until the deep end of the Meydan stretch. Trainer Bhupat Seemar has never started a horse in North America under his own license, but he worked for five years under Bob Baffert two decades ago, including when that stable won the 2002 Derby with War Emblem.

20) Happy Jack (Oxbow): He's winless beyond the maiden ranks from five starts and has never been closer than 10 1/2 lengths to the winner in any of his three Santa Anita stakes against short fields. Best Beyer is 83. Yet he currently holds the final Derby qualifying position based on his accrued 30 points.

The post The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 for April 19 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 For Apr. 12

All the nine-furlong preps for the GI Kentucky Derby are in the books, but Saturday's GIII Lexington S. still offers 20 points to the winner, so there could be some shakeout in the bottom tier of the Top 20. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” points leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. Access that list here.

 1) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-1-1, $713,000. Last Start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7. KY Derby Points: 114.

This beautifully balanced, nearly black colt vaulted to No. 1 based on his assertive, last-to-first score in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. Although still light in terms of having just four races, it wouldn't be a stretch to say this $170,000 KEESEP son of Upstart has packed an outsized share of “street smarts” experience into his preps, which include the unusual sequence of three consecutive nine-furlong stakes. He was into the bit, but not anxious through the first turn of the Blue Grass, and jockey Flavien Prat allowed Zandon to drift back to last by the half-mile pole while hemmed in by also-rans. Still well behind three-eighths out, Zandon clicked into “chase” mode with an outside bid and quickly had the first flight within his sights. Prat then had to make a quick positioning decision that put Zandon back down toward the rail, yet that path tightened up at the head of the lane. Zandon boldly shouldered his way back outside three-sixteenths from home, then took dead aim on favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy) before swatting away that rival with purpose en route to a 98 Beyer Speed Figure score. We'll let this well-earned victory sink in, but in next week's rankings, we'll dissect whether Zandon's recent switch to off-the-pace closing is a tactical disadvantage in a race like the Derby, which has had a speed-centric winning profile for most of the past decade.

2) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $1,010,639. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 164.

I spent a good chunk of Sunday and Monday flip-flopping the top two in these rankings before finally settling on Zandon at No. 1 and Epicenter at No. 2. Although Epicenter has the preferred pace-centric running style that matches more favorably with the last eight Derby winners, and he has also compiled the broader, stronger base of overall work, Zandon's against-adversity Blue Grass win was delivered with an intimidating panache that suggests he's capable of ratcheting up the level of competition beyond what Epicenter has experienced through most of his New Orleans campaign. Yes, this $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time did beat Zandon in their lone head-to-head showdown in the GII Risen Star S., but Epicenter coasted home on the front end while Zandon was compromised by a bad break; some 2 1/2 months between that matchup and Derby day could result in a different outcome. Still, enough intangibles remain in Epicenter's favor: he fires off fraction after fraction of up-tempo splits, fights back when challenged in the stretch, and has galloped out with authority in victories at nine furlongs and 1 3/16 miles.

3) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-0-2, $621,800. Last Start: 1st GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

Mo Donegal is capable of sitting back and uncorking one sustained bid, like he did from 4 1/2 furlongs out when winning Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. But rather than blowing by the field with one big, swooping move like a lot of closers, he smolders with sustained intensity and coerces rivals into submission with relentless late-race focus. This $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo has twice accelerated through final furlongs timed in exactly :12.33 in 1 1/8-mile races, with those GII Remsen S. and Wood wins representing the fastest closing eighths at that distance among all 2021-22 preps. Despite that obvious plus, it appears as if Mo Donegal will be un-partnering with jockey Joel Rosario. Dave Grening of DRF reported Sunday that Irad Ortiz, Jr., will likely regain the mount (he's been aboard three times previously) because Rosario is expected to remain tethered to Epicenter.

4) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-3-1-2, $515,350. Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 74.

It might appear as if Simplification regressed a touch when third and failing to deliver as the fave in the Florida Derby. Don't buy into that line of reasoning. The farther the Florida Derby gets in his rear-view mirror, the more potential there is for Simplification to head to Louisville as a “wiseguy” horse perceived as capable of doing damage in the 15-1 range. He's an energetic stalker who attended an honest pace and was prompted to crack the main speed in that Grade I try at Gulfstream, but engaging so soon (4 1/2 furlongs out) only resulted in Simplification getting hooked into a mid-race melee that continued through an unsustainable tempo. When confronted by a fresh challenge from the eventual winner, Simplification didn't come unglued, and he stayed on commendably without being hammered on. Every race he's run at a mile or longer has resulted in a 90+ Beyer, and there appears to be a firm enough foundation for an improved effort May 7.

5) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow)
O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $321,500. Last Start: 2nd GII Wood Memorial S. Next Start: TBD. KY Derby Points: 50.

Had Early Voting been on the winning side of the neck photo in the Wood Memorial, he'd likely be ranked within the top three contenders. But this $200,000 KEESEP colt is still an intriguing work-in-progress who'll go off in the 12-1 range in the Derby, and if you liked him before Saturday's near-miss, what you saw should embolden you to consider this Chad Brown trainee a very legitimate pace presence in Louisville. When favored Morello (Classic Empire) hit the gate at the break and couldn't effectively pressure Early Voting, Jose Ortiz didn't let this colt dawdle on the lead. Early Voting's high cruising gear enabled him to rattle off consecutive quarters of :23.86, :23.89, :23.84 and :24.04, and he held well against the more experienced Mo Donegal in a deep-stretch grind-down without being tapped dry. Poke around in his pedigree and you'll find more reasons than not to like him at 10 furlongs.

6) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP,
4-2-2-0, $549,810. Last Start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 70.

'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy got hooked five and three wide on the turns as the beaten fave in the Blue Grass S. while pressing a moderate tempo from post 10 over a heavy-ish, drying-out track. This  powerful son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) got first run on the wilting pacemaker at the quarter pole and led until the furlong marker while offering only token resistance to Zandon. While the effort wasn't poor, it didn't put an exclamation point on his two sophomore preps, which were both runner-up tries that lacked the true spark of his open-lengths juvenile victories. You have to go back to Super Saver in 2010 to find any horse who crossed the finish wire first in the Derby who did not win a sophomore race prior to the first Saturday in May.

7) TIZ THE BOMB (c, Hit It a Bomb–Tiz the Key, by Tiznow) O-Magdalena Racing, Lessee. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales History: $330,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-5-1-0, $1,044,401. Last Start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, TP, Apr. 2. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 110.

Over the next four weeks, you can expect talk about Tiz the Bomb to be dominated by the “Will he handle dirt?” question. That's the commanding narrative, but it probably isn't as crucial an angle as Derby prognosticators will make it out to be. Sure, it's natural to ask that question considering this $330,000 FTKSEL colt by Hit It a Bomb is a two-time stakes winner on both Tapeta and grass (while also finishing second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf). But both of his dirt races–a gaudy 14 1/4-length MSW win at Ellis Park and a 20 1/4-length drubbing in the GIII Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream–are too aberrational to use as a measuring stick for what will happen when the dirt flies in the Derby. Let's face it: every year there are plenty of otherwise-capable dirt horses who can't tolerate the crowding and jamming in the Derby's notorious traffic. At least with Tiz the Bomb, we know he can confidently negotiate a crowd, because his five best races came in fields of 10, 12, 12, 13 and 14. Ignore him at your own pari-mutuel peril.

8) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

Lightly raced 'TDN Rising Star' Charge It, a Whisper Hill Farm homebred by Tapit, closed gamely enough in the Florida Derby to make it difficult to pass up the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that the Derby offers. Did Charge It falter when running greenly through the stretch and failing to seal the deal despite several chances when second in that prep? Absolutely. But most horses making their third lifetime starts don't have a winning edge honed at that stage of their careers, and for Charge It, you have to consider he was making his two-turn debut and first try against winners in a Grade I stakes at the demanding distance of nine furlongs. Even though he's gray, he's a definite dark horse for Louisville.

9) TAIBA (c, Gun Runner–Needmore Flattery, by Flatter)
'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc. B-Bruce C Ryan (KY). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $490,200. Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby.

Taiba, who will turn three on Apr. 13, is this year's out-of-nowhere party crasher who burst onto the Derby scene with a 103-Beyer MSW win Mar. 5 followed by an unlikely takedown of the GI Santa Anita Derby in start number two. This 'TDN Rising Star' stacked up three across the track through the first turn behind the two favorites on Saturday, then Mike Smith backed him off through quarter-mile segments in :23.23, :23.43 and :24.27. When highly regarded stablemate Messier (Empire Maker) cracked Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) at the quarter pole, Taiba was into the bridle and almost immediately alongside at the head of the stretch. Messier initially kicked away, but this Gun Runner colt wouldn't quit, and even though Messier was shortening stride in the run to the wire (fourth quarter in :25.04 and final eighth in :12.70), Taiba kept on extending fluidly, driving clear to win by 2 1/4 lengths (102 Beyer). He'll be getting tossed into the very deep end of the Derby pool with only two lifetime starts to his name. But Taiba could be capable of making a bigger splash than conventional wisdom suggests.

10) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson,
Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-3-3-0, $435,600. Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Messier's record of three wins and three seconds from six starts looks strong on paper. But from a visual standpoint, his failure to slam the door when races were his for the taking in both the GII Los Alamitos Futurity and the Santa Anita Derby is troubling. Which son of Empire Maker ($470,000 FTKSEL) will show up at Churchill? The one who blew out the GIII Lewis S. field by 15 lengths with a 103 Beyer or the one who got manhandled by a just-graduated maiden in the Santa Anita Derby? Messier's connections have stressed all campaign long that he's a robust, well-balanced athlete with the mental prowess to match. But we've seen only glimpses of that in the afternoons, and he's never faced more than five rivals in a race while winning only once around two turns.

11) BARBER ROAD (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image) O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY). T-John Alexander Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 8-2-3-1, $650,720. Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 58.

It's too early to start formulating Derby betting strategies, but Barber Road has started to loom on my periphery as an “uh-oh” contender who could derail Derby exotics. He'll go off in the 60-1 range and doesn't project to be an obvious win threat. But he has the pedigree to handle 10 furlongs (via grandsires Tapit and Southern Image), knows how to kick late, and shows a willingness to bull his way through trouble. He has an eight-race foundation and two good showings at Churchill (a 6 1/4-length win and a second, beaten half a length), yet Barber Road figures to be completely off the radar of the general public because of subpar speed figures (best Beyer 88) and having gone nearly a half-year (since Nov. 10) without winning.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC & La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

You could make a case for the scrappy, athletic White Abarrio based on his overachieving style relative to his $7,500 OBSWIN and $40,000 OBSMAR auction pricing. You might also foresee a scenario in which this Race Day gray's nimble way of going and tactical speed afford him an advantage in the chaotic, 20-horse scramble for Derby positioning. But you also have to legitimately wonder if White Abarrio peaked in the Florida Derby, and if the combination of that 96-Beyer victory and this colt's having spiked a fever in the week leading up to that race took more out of him than might seem evident. Did you know that 33 consecutive grays have gone to post and lost the Derby since the last gray, Giacomo, roared home at 50-1 in 2005?

Potentially rounding out the starting gate…

13) Zozos (Munnings): A decent small-sample body of work for this 'TDN Rising Star', whose 40 qualifying points based on finishing second behind Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby currently rank 17th on the cutoff list. He was on his left lead through the stretch of his MSW win, unleashed a deft turn of foot at the quarter pole of his allowance victory, then led for as long as he could through the long Fair Grounds stretch over 1 3/16 miles before Epicenter picked him off in the Louisiana Derby. Homebred for Barry and Joni Butzow has a 70-92-98 Beyer pattern, but the overall grade is “incomplete” based on just three starts compacted into two months of racing experience and now a six-week gap into the Derby.

14) Morello (Classic Empire): He has the points to get into the Derby, but his connections are going to wait to see how he trains at Churchill before making a commitment. Morello ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) took enough money to go off as the undefeated favorite in the Wood Memorial, but his two-turn debut got derailed before it even started when he slammed the side of the gate at the break.

15) Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}): He's 3-for-4 on dirt with all three victories at nine furlongs or greater and a trouble-line excuse for his sixth-place try when only beaten 3 1/2 lengths. Got solidly bumped at the break of the G2 UAE Derby then uncoiled with a long drive on his incorrect lead in deep stretch to reel in the pacemaker on a track that was favorable to speed.

16) In Due Time (Not This Time): Three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) will try for both a confidence-building and points-garnering boost in Saturday's GIII Lexington S. at Keeneland. That final qualifying stakes on the Derby prep schedule awards 20 points to the winner, and a victory would put this colt at 40 points, which is the current cutoff mark to get into the Derby (defections and some earnings tiebreakers will change things over the next 3 1/2 weeks).

17) Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front): This late supplement to the Triple Crown and three-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA at KEESEP; $169,743 ARQDEA) has a 2-3-0 record from seven starts in Dubai, and he showed a willingness to forge to the front in the UAE Derby. He got collared in the final strides, but was not drubbed in defeat and his ability to engage over 1 3/16 miles stands him in good stead for a crack at 10 furlongs in Louisville. But realistically, you'd have to bank on him running the race of his life while a number of highly heralded contenders falter in order to envision this colt wearing a blanket of roses come May 7.

18) Cyberknife (Gun Runner): Prior to winning the GI Arkansas Derby, trainer Brad Cox described Cyberknife as a “tough horse to deal with-he always has been.” That may be an understatement. This $400,000 FTKSEL colt was DQ'd in his first start, veered through the stretch in start number two, got caught wide on both bends in his stakes debut, dropped his jockey in the post parade of the Arkansas Derby, then weaved home erratically while other contenders found trouble behind him. But he's starting to win races at the right time of year, and Cyberknife has now paired 87 and 92 Beyer scores since Cox removed blinkers. His damsire, Flower Alley, was also a late bloomer who won the 10-furlong GI Travers S. in 2005 and was beaten only a length at that same distance in that year's GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

19) Un Ojo (Laoban): Every Kentucky Derby needs an against-all-odds longshot to spice up the story line, and this gelding certainly qualifies with his 75-1 rain-soaked shocker in the GII Rebel S. But this son of Laoban lacks sight in his left eye (he lost it in an accident as a yearling, and Un Ojo means “one eye” in Spanish), and considering the ordeal he endured in the Arkansas Derby, you have to wonder if negotiating a crowded 20-horse field is going to be a dicey proposition for him. “He was sawed-off and bounced off the fence twice,” trainer Ricky Courville told the BloodHorse last week, adding that Un Ojo required surgical staples to close flesh wounds on his blind-side shoulder. “He kept hitting the rail and Ramon [Vazquez] had to check him out of there and he said the horse panicked and tried to jump the fence,… He's had some stiffness and we'll give him some time to get over it, We're still going to the Kentucky Derby so far.”

20) Slow Down Andy (Nyquist): When winning with blinkers on in the GIII Sunland Derby, Slow Down Andy withstood legit pace pressure as the 6-5 favorite, which was a plus. But the blinkers were supposed to add focus to his stretch runs, which have been erratic in the past, with the Los Alamitos Futurity a prime example. But Slow Down Andy again took to shifting and drifting in that weak-on-paper New Mexico stakes, this time while swishing his tail late in the lane. Right now the most favorable Derby angle for Slow Down Andy is rooted in history: his sire won the 2016 Derby, and this homebred was owned and trained by these same connections (Reddam Racing and Doug O'Neill).

The post TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 For Apr. 12 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 for Apr. 5

Seven horses among the current Top 12 will be in action Saturday in the last nine-furlong preps of the season. This past weekend's trio of stakes at Gulfstream, Oaklawn and Turfway dislodged former No. 1 contender Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway), but no winners from those races vaulted into the upper echelon. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the GI Kentucky Derby” points leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. Access that list here.

1) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 30.

   'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy coasts into the second Saturday of April with a 2-for-3 record that includes assertive juvenile form and one forgivable loss at three. This confidently powerful son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) got pocketed, moved too late, then ran up on heels under a full head of steam while second in the GII Risen Star S. behind the No. 2-ranked Epicenter (Not This Time). But it only took two jumps after the wire for Smile Happy to gallop out abreast of that geared-down rival, and the 94 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for the runner-up effort added to his upward-trending three-race arc. On Saturday at Keeneland, Smile Happy will return to the scene of his career unveiling, an emphatic 5 1/2-length victory in which he accelerated in hand three-eighths out to win with panache over a short-stretch, 1 1/16 miles configuration.

Smile Happy already showed no signs of wilting at nine furlongs in New Orleans. But 10 furlongs in the Derby? Smile Happy's sire was the 2015 champion sprinter. But his dam-sire, Pleasant Tap, was third in the 1990 Derby and won champion older horse honors in '92, and Derby winners like Super Saver and Pleasant Colony aren't too far back on each side of Smile Happy's pedigree.

2) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $1,010,639. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 164.

Epicenter brings nearly impeccable credentials to the Derby: He breaks like a pro, attains speed-centric positioning, withstands up-tempo paces, fights when challenged, finishes strongly, is capable of triple-digit Beyers, has won at 1 3/16 miles, has won at Churchill, and has only lost once (barely) in the past six months. Yet he's facing several historical hurdles.

Trainer Steve Asmussen is 0-for-23 in the Derby, the longest active drought on record. Epicenter's most recent prep, the GII Louisiana Derby, which dates to 1894, has only yielded two horses who crossed the finish wire first in the Kentucky Derby (in 1924 and 1996). And only two horses since 1929 have won the first leg of the Triple Crown off a six-week break like Epicenter will be trying to do (Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Needles in 1956 did it; Authentic's 49-day layoff in 2020 occurred when the Derby got rescheduled to September). If Epicenter winds up being the third choice or higher in the Derby, he could represent betting value.

3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 0.

As he primes for his final prep in Saturday's GI Santa Anita Derby, Messier–looking ahead one race–will be attempting to be the first Canadian-bred since Sunny's Halo in 1983 to win the Kentucky Derby. The only other Canadian-bred to win the Derby? The great Northern Dancer in 1964. Given the connection between his home country and hockey star namesake (Mark Messier), the Toronto Sun recently profiled this 'TDN Rising Star' and $470,000 FTKSEL bay by Empire Maker.     “He's big, robust, long-striding, athletic, well-balanced and most importantly, mentally a very focused colt,” said Tom Ryan of SF Racing, part of Messier's multi-partner ownership. “He knows his job and he enjoys his job.” Ryan further told the Sun that the recent training transition from Bob Baffert to Tim Yakteen has gone “incredibly well” under the “unfortunate” circumstances related to Baffert's suspension. “Messier, himself, he doesn't know. He's settled into his new surroundings very well. He's being cared for at the same elite level with Tim as he was with Bob. The foundation has already been laid and now it's just a matter of hoping we can maintain him and he continues on that upwards trajectory and he can be competitive at the elite level.”

4) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 12.

Mo Donegal hasn't been to work in the afternoon in two months, but his stock has ticked upward based on the subsequent graded stakes wins racked up by the winner, runner-up, and seventh-place finisher out of the GIII Holy Bull S. This $250,000 KEESEP Uncle Mo bay ran a trip-troubled third as the beaten fave in that Feb. 5 stakes, and he'll be stretching back out to his most recent winning distance and surface when he goes as the likely chalk in Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct.

Although the GII Remsen S. itself has fallen off the map as a producer of Derby winners (only three horses won both stakes in the last 58 years–Thunder Gulch, Go For Gin and Pleasant Colony)–it was still pretty impressive back in early December to see Mo Donegal bump and grind through a hard-fought final furlong in :12.33 to prevail by a nose over the well-regarded Zandon (Upstart).

5) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

Provided he makes the qualifying cut, Zandon will go into the Derby with three consecutive nine-furlong preps, which is something you don't generally see these days–especially when the colt in question will only have four lifetime starts.

Considering this $170,000 KEESEP colt has only a MSW sprint win to his credit, he's been well supported by Derby prognosticators all winter long, chiefly on the premise that he's persevered well through two rough/unlucky trips in the GII Remsen S. and the GII Risen Star S.

On Saturday, Zandon will partner with Flavien Prat for the first time, and it's also a little out of the ordinary to see such a highly ranked horse be ridden by four different jockeys in as many starts. But here's another stat to chew on in case you don't think this lightly raced Chad Brown trainee belongs with the top of the crop: The only horses who have ever finished in front of Zandon are ranked at Nos. 1, 2 and 4 on this list.

6) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-3-1-2, $515,350. Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 74.

Although he finished third in the GI Florida Derby, Simplification delivered the performance that rates above the two rivals who beat him. He applied direct pressure to front-running Classic Causeway, and even though he cracked that rival with little resistance 4 1/2 furlongs out, the move by jockey Jose Ortiz appeared premature when Pappacap (Gun Runner) immediately launched a go-for-broke bid that hooked both of them into a far-turn slugfest through the fastest quarter-mile segment (:23.44) of the race. When confronted anew by White Abarrio (Race Day) at the head of the lane, Simplification made the eventual winner work until the eighth pole to wrest command, and this colt hung in as well as he could without being pumped dry before Kentucky Derby day. He's sixth on the points list for Louisville, where his tactical speed and résumé of five 90-plus Beyers will rate him as a legit threat in the 15-1 range.

7) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

He's smaller in stature and his auction history ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) is more modest than most of his peers, but this athletic Race Day gray has punched above his weight through a five-race career. Yes, you can argue that White Abarrio's two graded stakes scores came over his home court at Gulfstream when he encountered clear sailing while favorites either ran into trip trouble (the Holy Bull S.) or embroiled themselves in a tactical meltdown (the Florida Derby). But at some point, even detractors have to acknowledge the admirable fact that White Abarrio keeps finding ways to win. It's also to his credit that his only loss was a respectable third in the most meaningful juvenile prep race from last autumn (the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.). White Abarrio gave up real estate on both turns Saturday, yet he has a nimble enough way of going to think that he could have an advantage fighting for position in a crowded 20-horse race like the Derby.

8) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher.
Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $69,600. Last Start: 4th GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 5.

We won't see the entries until Wednesday, but the Blue Grass S. could shake out with 'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel as the controlling speed. That's provided this physically imposing son of More Than Ready reverts to seeking the lead like he did in his first two victories against MSW and allowance company. In the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., this $350,000 KEESEP colt rated from off the pace while four and then five wide on the turns, but his middle move was decent enough considering the lost ground (229 feet more than the winner) and it being his first try against graded stakes company. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Blue Grass on three previous occasions (Carpe Diem 2015, Monba '08 and Bandini '05).

9) FORBIDDEN KINGDOM (c, American Pharoah–Just Louise, by Five Star Day) O-MyRacehorse & Spendthrift Farm LLC. B-Springhouse Farm (KY). T-Richard E. Mandella. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-1-1, $434,000. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 50.

What Saturday's Santa Anita Derby will lack in depth should be more than offset by the headline match-up of Forbidden Kingdom vs. Messier. The race promises to be a classic clash of true California speed horses, although this front-running son of American Pharoah ($300,000 FTKSEL) will probably be asked to tone down his blitzing early pace presence while Messier might be in the process of honing his quickness out of the gate. Messier won their only previous head-to-head (the GIII Bob Hope S. back in November), but Forbidden Kingdom has emerged as a stronger, more intimidating colt at age three with 94- and 98-Beyer wirings in a pair of Grade II stakes.

10) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial, AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 10.

Should Early Voting win Saturday's Wood Memorial, he'd go into the Derby with a 3-for-3 lifetime record, all at Aqueduct. An all-New York Derby campaign is a little offbeat these days, but this $200,000 KEESEP buy has been cautiously handled as a late bloomer who has already wired a nine-furlong stakes. The Wood pace pressure should be torqued up a notch or two, but Early Voting's style so far has been based on sustained intensity, and his MSW win in a one-turn mile showed he can deal with multiple threats on the front end while still having enough power left in reserve to swat away stern stretch bids.

11) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Charge It uncorked the type of performance in the Florida Derby that whets the appetite to see what he will do over longer distances with a little more seasoning. The open question is whether his three-race foundation is enough to launch him into contention as a ready-for-prime-time Derby horse.

This Whisper Hill Farm homebred was briefly favored prior to the closing of odds on Saturday, which is saying a lot considering the son of Tapit was making his first two-turn attempt against Grade I company. He definitely got a good schooling out of the experience–bumped out of the gate, learned how to rate while covered up under mild restraint, and ran well in spots through the lane while excusably green. But he really had to be roused by jockey Luis Saez from the far turn all the way to the wire, and he ran up on White Abarrio's heels twice in the final quarter mile while also losing momentum from repeatedly veering in and out. There were some noticeable spurts of interest through the stretch. But when you consider that four other horses had already taken turns on the lead after three consecutive sub-24-second quarter splits and a fourth quarter that devolved to :25.87, Charge It couldn't seal the deal when handed a soft :14.09 final eighth.

12) BARBER ROAD (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image) O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY). T-John Alexander Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 8-2-3-1, $650,720. Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 58.

I'm going to lob a bomb onto the caboose of this week's Top 12 by making a case for hard-charging Barber Road, described by his trainer, John Ortiz, as a “tough little horse.”

This unsung gray by Race Day ($15,000 KEENOV) nearly always outruns his odds despite traffic woes, and his attempted takedown of the shifting and drifting leader in Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby got derailed by Barber Road's running up onto the back end of a tiring pacemaker before refocusing with grit to snatch second from the favorite–all while losing a shoe amid the chaos.

Barber Road has eight races under his belt, has run well at Churchill (a 6 1/4-length win and a second, beaten half a length), and has gained ground and position in the stretch of every race at age three. True, he hasn't won a race since Nov. 10, and then against far lesser company. But longer distances are within the scope of his pedigree, which is anchored on the bottom by damsire Southern Image, who in 2004 at age four won two Grade I routes at Triple Crown distances (the Santa Anita H. and the Pimlico Special H.) before losing by a nose in the nine-furlong GI Stephen Foster H.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Blackadder (Quality Road): An undesirable draw of post 12 scratched this $620,000 KEESEP colt out of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway and into Saturday's Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway): Homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper has the points to get into the Derby, but not the positive momentum after his inexplicable caving to last while on the lead in the Florida Derby. Starting status for Louisville TBD.

Cyberknife (Gun Runner): High-energy colt ($400,000 FTKSEL) dislodged jockey in post parade and was four wide through first turn before getting first (and only) run on a tiring pacemaker on the far turn of the Arkansas Derby. One bid behind him fizzled, another got blocked. Veering out late while clear in 92-Beyer score over soft field.

Ethereal Road (Quality Road): D. Wayne Lukas-trained $90,000 KEESEP colt gave up four paths of ground on both turns in the slowly run Rebel S., yet led from the quarter pole until 50 yards before the wire. Because Lukas did not want to run Ethereal Road in the same race as the filly Secret Oath (Arrogate), who was third as the fave in the Arkansas Derby, this colt must travel to a much tougher spot in the Blue Grass S.

In Due Time (Not This Time): Three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) owns 20 qualifying points (ranked 27th) based on second in Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S.

Morello (Classic Empire): Undefeated, 96-Beyer GIII Gotham S. victor ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) gets two turns for the first time in Wood Memorial. Will he hook up on the front end with Early Voting?

Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb): Runner-up in GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (FTKSEL $330,000) and winner of two subsequent Turfway stakes on Tapeta surface was declared a “go” for the Derby by trainer Kenny McPeek on Monday.

The post TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 for Apr. 5 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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